Post on 04-Apr-2023
Asian Energy OutlookOriginally Launched
14 October 2013
For Discussion at NBR
17 December 2015
S. Samuel TumiwaDeputy Representative
North America Representative Office
July 2015
1
1. Increasing Energy Demand
Projection: Final energy demand increase at 2.1% /yr• 2010: 3,238.5 Mtoe ; • 2035: 5,400.9 Mtoe;
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2010 2020 2035
Mto
e
Industry Transport Other Non-Energy
2. Electricity: Doubled btw 2010 &2035 (3.4%/yr)
234
4,165
5764 601
1,243491
9,730
14
2,7621,733 1,439
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Central andWest Asia
East Asia Pacific South Asia SoutheastAsia
DevelopedGroup
TWh
2010 2035
• 2010: 7,010 TWh;• 2035: 16,169 TWh;
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2010 2035
TW
h
Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro NRE
3. Fossil Fuels Still Dominates Electricity Mix
4. CO2 Emission (2010-2035)2010: 13,404.0 million tons2020: 16,184.8 million tons 2035: 22,112.6 million tons
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2020 2035
Mt
CO
2
Central and West Asia East Asia PacificSouth Asia Southeast Asia Developed Group
Average growth rate = 2.0%
5. Projected Investment in Energy Sector by 2035
• Cumulative investments by 2035 : $11.7 trillion• More investment in developing members
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Central and West Asia
East Asia
Pacific
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Developed
$ billion (constant, 2006 prices)
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity/Heat
$ 1,709.2 billion
$ 1,343.6 billion
$ 2,416.1 billion
$ 38.4 billion
$ 5,771.4 billion
$ 502.8 billion
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mtoe Developed GroupSoutheast AsiaSouth AsiaPacificEast AsiaCentral and West Asia
BAU: 8,358.3 Mtoe
Potential Savings1,295.2 Mtoe
Alternative Case: 7,063.1 Mtoe
Primary Energy Savings
6. Energy Saving and CO2 Mitigation PotentialBy 2035, BAU vs Alternative
• Primary energy savings: 1,295.2 Mtoe• CO2 emissions reduction: 6104.3 Mt
Investment requirements for BAU and Alternative Cases
8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
BAU ALTCu
mu
lati
ve In
vest
men
t ($
, tri
llio
n, c
on
stan
t 2
00
6 p
rice
s)
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Transport
Distribution
EnergyTransportation
Transformation
Extraction/Production
$ 11.7 trillion
$ 19.9 trillion
Supply sideinvestment:$12.6 trillion
Demand side additional
investment:$7.3 trillion
Policy Implications
1. Energy Security: continue rely upon imported fossil fuel, such as oil and gas
2. Demand for coal will grow by 50% for economic and technical needs but at slower pace due to EE and RE development in PRC
3. Demand side energy-efficiency is very important
4. Rehabilitate and/or phase out aging, unreliable, and low efficiency power plants
5. Regional cooperation is needed
6. Large amounts of investments is required