30QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3(48)/2012
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w K’ fifteen yearsweremainly backed by
w v. O w 300%
20.5 1995 80 2011. A w w (F 1) w 600% 1995 2012 ( $17.5 $125). T w — w — v K’ x 28 .
Exhausting Opportunities of Extensive Growth as a Factor of Potential Macroeconomic DestabilizationVYACHESLAV DODONOV
T
Fg 1. W B USD [1]
K’ GDP ( USD) v $16.6 $178. T 10%
K v x 3% ’ GDP. T
31QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3(48)/2012
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Fg 2. C x K’ GDP 19952011 [2]
GDP, USD million
Oil
pric
e, U
SD
Brent oil price, year-end Export, USD million
w GDP x v. F 2 w betweenexports,GDPandworldoilprices,confirmingthatoilpriceshavesignificantlyinfluencedthew .
In themid-2000s another significant growth — w v w v v . Hwv 2008 w K . A v q . Y w w . I tiveexportrevenuesandtaxesdirectlyinfluence
importantindicatorsofpublicfinanceincludingthe v N B N F (F 3).
T v v w w v w . T K’ — v v w (T 1).
T K’ v xv w w w v v x v w v v . Hwv x w w — v w .
1. C w w K’ 19952011
GDP Exports International reserves of the National Bank
Assets of the National Fund
Brent oil price 0.90 0.87 0.92 0.88
180, 000
160, 000
140, 000
120, 000
100, 000
80, 000
60, 000
40, 000
20, 000
0
32QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3(48)/2012
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Fg 3. C N B’ v N F’ [3]
M v x w v . I S P B I Iv Dv R K 20102014 v “ 2014 w 85 [4]”. T M O G w 130 2020. Hwv v v — 2009 v insignificantincreasesinoilproduction(Figure4).
I 2009 76.5 2010 79.7 2011 80
2012 M O G 81 . T 5% v . Ev w 85 2014 x S P B I Iv Dv w w 1990 2000 w 6.5% ( 2009) 200% 19982009. T q w— — K .
Fg 4. Oilproduction,‘000metrictons[5]
Oil
pric
e, U
SD
Assets of the National Fund, USD millionBrent oil spot price, USD
Gross international reserves, USD million
2012
(Min
istr
y of
Oil
and
Gas
’ for
ecas
t)
60, 000
50, 000
40, 000
30, 000
20, 000
10, 000
0
90, 000
80, 000
70, 000
60, 000
50, 000
40, 000
30, 000
20, 000
10, 000
0
33QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3(48)/2012
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Iron ores, sintered and non-sintered, ‘000 metric tons
15,886 17,675 19,281 20,303 19,471 22,263 23,834 21,486 22,281 24,016 24,736
Iron ore pellets, ‘000 metric tons
6,107 7,308 8,849 9,447 7,494 8,473 8,572 6,952 6,182 8,150 7,803
Copper ores, ‘000 metric tons
34,872 36,703 34,887 30,383 34,067 34,082 31,266 32,566 30,594 32,039 34,396
Chrome ores, ‘000 metric tons
2,046 2,370 2,928 3,287 516 4,264 4,590 4,207 4,678 5,092 5,059
Ferroalloys, ‘000 metric tons
1,130 1,235 1,401 1,447 1,530 1,614 1,703 1,590 1,469 1,702 1668
Flat rolled products, ‘000 metric tons
3,888 4,018 3,838 4,040 3,105 3,000 3,441 2,826 2,990 2,900 3108
Unpro-cessed aluminum; aluminum oxide, ‘000 metric tons
1,231 1,387 1,420 1,468 1,505 1,515 1,556 1,714 1,735 1,867 1919
Unpro-cessed lead, metric tons
158,722 162,175 133,178 157,016 135,446 115,974 117,641 105,766 80,994 103,400 111518
Unpro-cessed zinc, metric tons
277,073 286,454 294,566 316,731 357,090 364,821 358,226 365,572 327,873 318,858 319847
Unpro-cessed alloy-free refined copper, met-ric tons
425,670 452,989 432,511 445,268 418,356 427,723 406,091 398,411 312,767 323,368 338524
2. P 20012011 [7]
A K’ — (w 41% 12.1%
K’ x)— w w [6] (T 2).
F 2000 of iron and copper ores, ferroalloys, flat rolled w rates.Productionofotheritems,includingrefined . T
. T w . K Iv D C B G P Pj K K A’ C
34QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3(48)/2012
E C O N O M I C S
C v w v w w 0.5% 1.7% v w 7% 8%. “A ’ v w 25 17 30 w v w q ” [8].
T w K’ 2000— w worldprices—willalsoloseitssignificanceinthex w duringthelastfifteenyears.Withouteventakinginto account the increasingly frequentfinancial x x v w w w $600 2020 x $3000 2030 400% v 20012011.
T w w x $100 (+/$20) ( w ) w. I benotedthatifthereformoftheglobalfinancial v 20082009 w v w . O mainreasonsfortheglobalfinancialturbulenceisv q w v scaleinthelasttenyears,andchangesofitsflowscausefailuresinfinancialmarkets.Ifthereform q ( w v v vv .) w v q . T x K’ x w w w v .
Ex w K’ xv w w v
v v q w:
1. T GDP w 10% 2000. I w w w 34% w w ( v ) wv w x ofthelimitedinflowofexportrevenuesandthis w ;
2. S v w w w 2000 w (F 5). A v w x w w w anincreaseinbudgetdeficit.Thecurrentnational 20122014 [9] v w v . Rv x 4346 2011 5311 2014 ( 22.2%) x 5170 5884 (13.8%). Hwv w w q willbedifficulttodealwithbudgetspendingand w q q N F w w ;
3. A w . T v v K’ x (F 6) w ( v x F 6 w v w w ). I v w w . T x ( 2008) v v v. T 2005 2006 2006 2007 2010 w x F 6.
T w v ornegative, isfinancedfromthereservesof theN B (
35QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3(48)/2012
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Fg 5. Kazakhstan’sbudgetrevenuesin2001-2011,milliontenge,accordingtotheofficialweb M F [9]
Reserve assets of the National Bank
Current account Exports FOB
Fg 6. Quarterlyfiguresofexports,currentaccountandreservesoftheNationalBankofKa [10]
w F 6): w v v N B’ v w v v
w v q for public finance and economic security as a w.
6, 000, 000
5, 000, 000
4, 000, 000
3, 000, 000
2, 000, 000
1, 000, 000
0
30, 000
25, 000
20, 000
15, 000
10, 000
5, 000
0
-5, 000
-10, 000
36QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3(48)/2012
E C O N O M I C S
T v v v w K’ x v v w significantitemsofthebalanceofpayments—thev v — v financialtransactionsaccount,whichreflectsinternationalinvestmentflows,isunstable(Figure7).
T v v v x j ( w ) w repatriate profits abroad (and this is reflected in v ) foreignpartnerstoprovideservices(andthisinflu v ). T x ’ v
x v w w v v . I tionwhenpricesaregrowingthesefiguresremainv w — w v . International investment flows in raw-material K significantextentonexportpricesandwhenthese w v or evenflows outward, resulting in aworsened w v w.
F 7 w v q 2011 ithasremainednegativeeversince.Thisreflects
v x . F q 2011 w v v v v v v $6 N B’ v v q. F A D 2011 N B’ v $7.7 21%. T B $123 $107. A ( q 2012) v w . T w w x—w the2000spricefluctuationswerecompensatedby w x .
Fg 7. QuarterlyfiguresofkeycomponentsofKazakhstan’sbalanceofpayments[11]
Services balance
Balance of trade Balance on investment income
Capital and financial transactions account
15, 000
10, 000
5, 000
0
-5, 000
-10, 000
37QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3(48)/2012
E C O N O M I C S
A w w x : v w v— v . A thingshappenatthesametimebecauseinthefirst N B w v wv x x . A w v w . T w vmentofnegativetrendssuchasincreasedinflation ’ v debt,theoutflowofcapital,andthedestabilizationofthefinancialsphere.
T x xv w K’ w w w
w ww GDP w ’ . A w x thefirstsignssuchasaslowdowninGDPgrowth w w v . T ww w bedeterminedtoasignificantextentbythespeedofthedevelopmentofnewfields,primarilyKashagan, w w xv w x. Hwv v w v w x intentofifteenyears,therefore,anewstrategyfor w v v j w v .
OURCE:
1. W OPEC C S P FOB W E Ex V (D B). E I A. ://..v
2. K’ S A T..3. N B U.S. E I A.4. S P B I Iv Dv RepublicofKazakhstan for2010-2014.Officialwebsiteof theGovernment R K: ://.v.///12
5. I v R K 19912010. K’ S A: ://.
6. K’ S A A 2012.7. D Q1 2012. JA 2012. I v R
K 19912010. K’ S A: ://.8. T N Dv D H B D K Y
Y. T. 7 J 2012.9. M P N B 20122014. M F oftheRepublicofKazakhstan:http://www.minfin.gov.kz
10. B P K: A. N B R K: ://.
11. B P K: A. N B R K: ://.
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