Estimating the Causal Effect of Economic Policies on

Productivity in Chile

A Research Proposal

Rodrigo Fuentes

Roberto Álvarez

José Miguel Benavente

June 2008

2

1. Introduction and Motivation

Since the Asian and the Russian crisis, Latin America has struggled to recover its long

term productivity growth. Casual evidence suggests that Asian emerging economies have

been more successful in recovering from the crisis. Only in the last few years, mainly due to

the high terms of trade, Latin American economies have been growing at a faster pace.

Chile has not escaped to this trend. After being a successful example of growth over

1986-1997 (TFP grew at 3%), the aggregate productivity growth has dramatically declined

over the last 10 years (TFP grew at 0.4%) for this economy (see Figure 1). The profession has

not come out with an undisputable answer to explain this decline. Most of studies regarding

total factor productivity have emphasized the macroeconomic environment and economic

reforms to explain aggregate productivity growth1. Chile has been an example of good

macroeconomic management and an earlier reformer country. It seems that the answer to

this puzzle should be searched on the micro side.

One of the challenges to conduct an empirical study on the effect of micro policies on

productivity of individual plants across sectors is that most of the policies in Chile are

uniform. In contrast to some other countries, there is not regional variation in regulations as

those that have been useful to identify their effects in countries like the U.S. and India. In

Chile, there are very few policies to target specific sectors or specific regions. Although

there are some specific programs for small firms, the lack of consistent data for beneficiaries

of these programs limits the possibility of studying the effects of micro policy at the level of

firms2. There are several studies that look at the effect of trade orientation on productivity

of the Chilean manufacturing industry.3 But as far as we know none of them study the

effects of other type of policies like taxation, labor market regulation, and barriers to entry

and exit4. We think that broader questions need to be addressed to explain the productivity

slow down shown in figure 1.

1 For instance, see Easterly and Levine (2002), Loayza, Fajnzylber, Calderon (2005), Easterly (2005). See Fuentes, Larraín and Schmidt-Hebbel (2006) and the references therein for the case of Chile. 2 Some exceptions are the program specific evaluations of FONTEC (Benavente Crespi and Maffioli, 2007) and of export promotion programs managed by PROCHILE (Alvarez, 2004). 3 For instance see Pavcnik (2004), Alvarez and Fuentes (2003), Bergoeing et al (2006). 4 Bergoeing et al (2006) also uses the identification strategy of Rajan and Zingales (1998) to analyze how financial development affects the productivity of plants operating in industries that differ in external financing needs. A similar strategy has been used by Álvarez and Görg (2007) to identify different responses in domestic and multinational plants during the last economic crisis in Chile.

3

Figure 1. Total Factor Productivity Index

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

1986

Q1

1987

Q4

1989

Q3

1991

Q2

1993

Q1

1994

Q4

1996

Q3

1998

Q2

2000

Q1

2001

Q4

2003

Q3

2005

Q2

TFP (1986=100)

Source: Fuentes, Gredig and Larrain (2007)

Despite the neutrality of Chilean policies in general, it is possible to observe changes in

policies over time (structure of taxation, labor’s law, minimum wages, and free trade

agreements) that would have different effects on the performance of individual plants and

sectors. For instance, it can be argued that changes in the labor’s law or minimum wage will

affect different to plants, depending of the capital and labor intensity used in each plant and

sector5. Then, several interesting questions arise form these policy changes. How more rigid

labor markets may affect resource allocation across plants and sectors? What is the implicit

productivity cost of not using the “right” capital/labor ratio? Is the minimum wage

requirement or labor’s law modification affect plants of different size?

In a different avenue, it is also possible to explore the effect of cost of entry regulations

on productivity for different sectors. The number of procedures or number of days for

starting business will be the same for all plants, but compared to the size of each plant this

cost could be found as an important cost that refrain plants to enter in different sectors.

In sum, this project will focus on two types of policies that can affect plant and industry

productivity: labor market regulations and entry costs. In the first case, we will exploit 5 Montenegro and Pagés (2005) show evidence on how minimum wages and job security provisions affect unemployment rate of young versus old workers, skilled versus unskilled workers and men versus women.

4

changes overtime in employment protection derived from labor reforms and changes in

minimum wages during the period. In the second case, even when entry costs do not change

overt time, we will exploit regional-and-industry specific differences in the relative cost of

entry.

One potential shortcoming of using Chilean data to analyze these issues is that this

country was an early reformer and, it can be argued, most of the most important policy

changes were already implemented. Nevertheless, Chilean labor market tends to be less

regulated than other Latin American labor markets; it is well behind the best practice

economy (See Fuentes and Mies, 2005). In Table 1 we show some comparative labor-market

statistics, where Chile ranked above the average of Latin American (LA) economies, but

below the average for OECD group and USA, and way below best practice.

Table 1: Labor Market Flexibility Condition (0 means more flexible)

Chile LA OECD Brazil Mexico USA Best practice

Hiring flexibility 56 56 49 78 81 33 17 Market labor conditions 65 79 58 89 81 29 22 Firing flexibility 29 48 28 68 70 5 1 Labor regulation 50 61 45 78 77 22 20 Source: Fuentes and Mies (2005) using data from Doing Business (2004), World Bank.

This is also valid for the analysis of the effects of barriers to entry. Again Chile is doing

relatively better than the average Latin American country in this feature, even closer to

OECD groups, but still worse than US and the best practice economies (Table2).

5

Table 2: Barriers to start business

Chile LA OECD Brazil Mexico USA Best practice

# of procedures 10 12 6 15 7 5 -- Duration (days) 28 74 30 152 51 4 2 Cost (% Income per capita) 12 70 10 12 19 1 0 Minimum capital (% Income per capita)

0 86 61 0 88 0 --

Sources: Fuentes and Mies (2005) using data from Doing Business (2004), World Bank.

The main objective of this project is to explore - using plant and industry data - how

variations in labor and entry regulations can explain the productivity slowdown of the

Chilean economy. The analysis will try to identify the effect of regulations depending on

exogenous industry characteristics. The analysis will be based on econometric specifications

for total factor productivity and it will be complemented with estimations for the

probability of exit and industry regressions for entry and exit rates. At the end, this project

will give information on how productivity growth could be decomposed in incumbents’

productivity growth and that part that it could be explained by reallocation through

changes in plants share and entry and exit.

2. Methodology

As explained in the introduction, the “neutrality” of most policies in Chile allows for

time series variation of policies rather than cross-industry variation. Thus, the identification

strategy proposed in this study follows Rajan and Zingales (1998), in the sense that sectors

and plant exposure to each specific regulation are identified ex-ante.

2.1 Labor Regulations

Our identification strategy will be based on industry differences in unskilled labor

intensity and overall labor intensity (capital/labor ratio). We test two main hypotheses:

• More unskilled labor intensive are more vulnerable to rise of the minimum wage

6

• More labor intensive sectors will be more affected by an increase in labor market

rigidity.6.

In this case we can use direct information from Chilean industries, measuring factor

intensities at the beginning of the period.

We can also exploit the identification strategy followed by Micco and Pagés (2006), who

use information for the U.S. industries exposure to volatility in demand or supply shocks.

In such a case, we can test the following hypotheses:

• The effect of employment regulations will be higher for industries more exposed to

volatility in demand or supply shocks.

2.2 Barriers to entry

Given that there is not time series information on barriers to entry (starting business),

we cannot exploit cross-country difference as in Klapper et al (2006) or region specific as

Bertrand and Kramarz (2002). The strategy in this case is to give variability to the estimated

cost of the barriers to entry. Djankov et al (2002) computes a useful measure of entry

regulations as the direct entry cost plus the monetized value of entrepreneurship time (as a

fraction of GDP per capita in 1999). Given that income per capita and industry-specific

plant size differs across regions of a country, we can calculate the entry cost across Chilean

regions and industries. Thus, we will have to alternative measures of entry costs varying

across industries and regions. In the first case, we will have the entry costs as proportion of

plant size. In the second case, entry cost will be a proportion of the region income per

capita. This is a variant of the work by Fisman and Sarria-Allende (2004) who test whether

entry regulations barriers are more relevant in industries characterized by low natural

barriers to entry7. In such case, the hypotheses to be test are the following:

• An increase in entry costs will have more effects on industries with low natural

barriers to entry defined by Fisman and Sarria-Allende (2004).

6 The effect of labor market regulations on labor flow and plant dynamics has been previously studied in Micco and Pagés (2006) and Autor, Kerr and Kugler (2007). The effects on productivity, investment and employment were analyzed across states in India by Besley and Burgess (2004). 7 A natural concern is that entry regulations may affect regional income directly through a lower growth of certain industries. In such a case, we can instrument current income by predetermined lagged income per-capita (regional data availability from the beginning of the 60´s). Other instruments are region-specific variables from the colonial epoch. These have been shown to be good predictors on current income per capita (Bruhn and Gallego, 2008).

7

2.3. Econometric specification

The general specification for plant-level estimation of productivity and exit will be8:

Re *ijrt i r t ijrt jrt j ijrty x g Zα α α β λ ε= + + + + +

Where yijt is the variable of interest, sub index i denotes a plant, j an industry, r a region,

and t a year. xijrt is a vector of plant characteristics, Reg is a measure of regulations (labor and

entry) and Z is a vector of industry characteristics.

When using labor regulations, Reg will vary over time. When using entry costs, this

variable will vary across industries and or regions. In both cases Z will vary across industries

and will allow identifying differential effects on plants operating in industries that differ ex-

ante in the exposure to labor and entry regulations.

Using industry level data, the above equation become:

Re *jrt j r t jrt t j jrty x g Zα α α β λ ε= + + + + +

We will use this equation to estimate the effect of regulations on industry productivity,

growth (employment and or sales), entry rates and exit rates.

Using this strategy we can determine how our dependent variables are affected by

distortions, and how, even with “neutral” policies, some specific sectors are more vulnerable

than others depending on differences in exposure to labor and entry regulations. Thus the

marginal effect of distortions on productivity will depend on these industry characteristics:

Re

ijrtj

t

yZ

gλ

∂=

∂

This relationship could be illustrated in a graph whit the proper confidence interval.

It should be noted that, similar to most of the recent empirical works using the

methodology proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998), this specification allows to identify the

differential effect across industries, and not the overall impact of regulations. For example,

in the case of labor reforms that vary over time, this is captured by the year-specific effects.

2.4 Productivity Growth Decomposition

One interesting question to be addressed is the effect of regulation on different

components of productivity growth. To shed light on these issues productivity growth –at

the industry level – may be decomposed in four elements: (i) A within-plant effect, given by

8 In the case of exit, the model is not linear and it will be estimated using Probit.

8

incumbents’ productivity growth weighted by initial output shares; (ii) a reallocation effect

capturing gains from the expanding market share of high productivity plants relative to the

initial aggregate productivity level; (iii) an entry effect which is the sum of the differences

between each entering plant’s productivity and initial aggregate productivity, weighted by

its market share; and (iv) an exit effect given by the sum of the differences between each

exiting plant’s productivity and initial aggregate productivity, weighted by its market share

(as shown in Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan, 1998). For each of these four components, we

will estimate the following equation:

jrtjjrttrjjrt ZgxGy ελβααα +∆+∆+++= *Re

Where Gyjrt is productivity growth for each component detailed above.

Finally, using industries differences in exposure to labor and entry regulations we can

give some estimates of how much, if any, of the productivity growth differences may be

explained by the effect of regulation on each of these for components.

4. Data Description

Our analysis will be based mainly in information for Chilean manufacturing plants

covering the period 1990-2005. This is the most recent information provided by the

Encuesta Nacional Industrial Annual (the Annual National Manufacturing Survey, ENIA)

collected by the Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas (National Institute of Statistics, INE).

Currently, we have information for the period 1992-2005. We are working in the matching

of plant identification number to incorporate information for 1990 and 1991.

The panel for the ENIA collects information for more than 5,000 plants in 4-digit ISIC

industries. The number of plants by year is shown in the Table 3. Given that the number of

plants in some 4-digit industries is very low, we will work with plants grouped at 3-digit

industries. The distribution of plant by industry is shown in Table 4. The information

provided by the ENIA allow us to compute total factor productivity at firm-level data using

the methodology strategy developed by Olley and Pakes (1996) and extended by Levinsohn

and Petrin (2003), as it has been made previously for Chile by Bergoeing et al (2006) and

Alvarez and López (2005).

The second source of information is provided by the Internal Tax Service (SII), which

collects information of firms that pay taxes. Then, the main difference with the ENIA is that

we can have information of firms and not plants. Unfortunately, due to confidentiality

9

reasons, we cannot access to specific firm-level information, we can use only aggregate

information by economic sectors (the number of firm observations by year is shown in

Table 5).

One advantage of this source of information is that we can expand the coverage of

economic sectors. ENIA only collects information for manufacturing industries and the SII

provides information for agriculture, mining, manufacturing industries and services.

Unfortunately, this information does not allow us to estimate productivity, but we can test

some of the hypotheses using sales growth, entry and exit rates (entry and exit rates are

shown in columns 2 and 3 of Table 5)9. In any case, we think the SII information as

complementary to the results using the ENIA.

Table 3: ENIA and Number of Plants

Year Plants 1992 5937 1993 5935 1994 6256 1995 5111 1996 5465 1997 5317 1998 4862 1999 4800 2000 4632 2001 4790 2002 5171 2003 5155 2004 5447 2005 5326

9 For the Project, these entry and exit rates and also sales growth, will be calculated by economic sectors.

10

Table 4: Distribution of Plants by Industries, 2005

Industry Plants Percentage 311 1,499 28 313 196 3.68 314 5 0.09 321 275 5.16 322 198 3.72 323 36 0.68 324 78 1.46 331 356 6.68 332 122 2.29 341 127 2.38 342 284 5.33 351 93 1.75 352 208 3.91 353 9 0.17 354 14 0.26 355 53 1 356 292 5.48 361 7 0.13 362 30 0.56 369 214 4.02 371 70 1.31 372 98 1.84 381 477 8.96 382 307 5.76 383 89 1.67 384 88 1.65 385 33 0.62 390 68 1.28

11

Table 5: SII and Number of Firms

Year Firms Entry Rate Exit Rate

1999 795,967 13.43 12.93 2000 800,523 13.86 12.64 2001 811,843 16.10 13.87 2002 833,420 14.15 14.82 2003 826,941 15.02 12.68 2004 849,660 13.69 12.48 2005 861,578 13.83 12.10 2006 878,913 14.30 13.07

12

References

Albagli, E., P. García and J. E. Restrepo (2005). “Assesing the Flexibility of the Labor Market

in Chile: An international Perspective”, in Restrepo and Tokman (Eds.) Labor Market and

Institutions, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, Chile.

Álvarez, Roberto (2004), “Sources of Export Success in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises:

The Impact of Public Programs”, International Business Review 13, 383-400.

Álvarez, R., and R. A. López (2005). Exporting and Performance: Evidence from Chilean

Plants. Canadian Journal of Economics 38 (4): 1384-1400.

Alvarez, R. and R. Fuentes (2003): “Reforma Comercial y Productividad en Chile: Una

mirada 15 años más tarde”, Trimestre Económico, 70 (277): 21-41.

Alvarez, R. and H. Görg (2007). “Multinationals as Stabilizers?: Economic Crisis and Plant

Employment Growth”, Working Paper No. 412, Central Bank of Chile.

Autor, D. H., W. Kerr and A. D. Kluger. (2007). “Does Employment Protection Reduce

Productivity? Evidence from US States”, The Economic Journal, 117(521):189-217

Benavente J. M., Crespi G. and Maffioli A. (2007), “Public Support to Firm Innovation: The

Chilean FONTEC Experience” OVE Working Papers 0407, Inter-American Development

Bank, Office of Evaluation and Oversight (OVE).

Bergoeing, R. and F. Morandé (2003). “Labor Market Distortions, Emplyment and Growth:

The Recent Chilean Experience”, Working Paper 251, Central Bank of Chile.

Bergoeing, R. Hernando, A. and A. Repetto (2006). "Market Reforms and Efficiency Gains in

Chile," Working Paper No. 372, Central Bank of Chile

13

Bertrand, M. and F. Kramarz (2002). “Does Entry Regulation Hinder Job Creation ?

Evidence from the French Retail Industry”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4):

1369-1413.

Besley, T. and R. Burgess (2004). “Can Labor Regulation Hinder Economic Performance?

Evidence form India”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1): 91-134.

Bruhn, M and F. Gallego (2008). "Good, Bad, and Ugly Colonial Activities: Studying

Development Across the Americas," Documentos de Trabajo 334, Instituto de Economía,

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.

Djankov, S., La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F. and Andrei Shleifer (2002). "The Regulation

of Entry." Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(1):1-37.

Easterly, William (2005). “National Policies and Economic growth: A Reappraisal”, in

Aghion and Durlauf (eds), Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1A, North Holland:

Amsterdam, 1015-1059.

Easterly, W. and R. Levine (2002) “It’s not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth

Models”. World Bank Economic Review 15(2):177-220.

Foster, L., J.C. Haltiwanger, and C.J. Krizan, (1998). “Aggregate Productivity Growth:

Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence.” NBER Working Paper 6803.

Fuentes, J. R. and V. Mies (2005). “Una Mirada al Desarrollo Económico de Chile desde una

Perspectiva Internacional”, Revista Economía Chilena, 8(1): 7-33

Fuentes, J. R., Larraín M. and K. Schmidt-Hebbel (2006) “Measuring and Explaining Total

Factor Productivity in Chile.” Cuadernos de Economía, 43(May): 113-142.

Levinsohn, J. and A. Petrin, (2003). “Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to

Control for Unobservables.” Review of Economic Studies 70, 317-41.

14

Loayza, N., Fajnzylber P. and C. Calderon (2005). Economic Growth in Latin America and

the Caribbean: Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts. The World Bank, Washington

D.C.

Micco, A. and C. Pagés (2006). “The Economic Effects on Employment Protection: Evidence

from International Industry-Level Data”, IZA Discussion Paper N° 2433.

Montenegro, C. and C. Pagés (2005). “Who benefits from Labor Market Regulations? Chile

1960-1998”, in Restrepo and Tokman (Eds.) Labor Market and Institutions, Central Bank of

Chile, Santiago, Chile.

Pavcnik, N. (2003). “Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvements: Evidence

from Chilean Plants “Review of Economic Studies 69 (1): 245–276.

Rajan, R. and L. Zingales (1998). “Financial Dependence and Growth”, American Economic

Review, 88(3): 559-586.

15

ANNEX 1 Budget of the Project

Researcher Time Value Rodrigo Fuentes (Head of the Project) 8hrs/week 5,500 Roberto Alvarez (Researcher) 8hrs/week 5,000 José Miguel Benavente (Researcher) 8hrs/week 5,000 Cintia Sacciloto (Research Assistant) 20hrs/week 2,000 Research Assistant 3 month 1,500 Other expenses 1,000 Total $20,000

16

Annex 2

CV of the Researchers

1

CURRICULUM VITAE J. RODRIGO FUENTES

2008 PERSONAL DATA Address : Agustinas 1180, of. 349 Santiago, CHILE Phone Numbers : (56-2) 670 2378, 670 2853 (fax) E-mail : rfuentes@bcentral.cl ACTUAL POSITION Senior Economist at the Research Department, Central Bank of Chile (until July 2008) Associate Professor, Department of Economics P. Univesidad Católica de Chile (Starting August

2008) ACADEMIC DEGREES 1992 Ph.D. in Economics, University of California - Los Angeles (UCLA) 1989 M. A. in Economics, University of California - Los Angeles (UCLA) 1987 Master in Finance, Universidad de Chile 1984 Professional Degree in Economics, Universidad de Chile MAJOR FIELDS OF INTEREST Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, International Trade, Banking OTHER ACADEMIC POSITIONS 2007-2008 Member of the Study Group in Economics and Business, National Commission of

Science and Technology (CONICYT) 2006-2008 Member of the Board of the Chilean Economic Society 1998-2002 Dean of the Graduate School of Business and Economics, Universidad de Chile 2001-2002 Visiting Professor at the AB Freeman School of Business, Tulane University (Spring

Semester) 1999 Visiting Professor at the Department of Economics, UCLA (Winter Quarter) 1996-2001 Visiting Professor at the Graduate School of Universidad Nacional de Tucumán,

Argentina (one course a year) 1992-1998 Assistant Professor in the Economics Department at the Universidad de Chile HONORS, AWARDS, FELLOWSHIPS, GRANTS 1991-1992 Japan/World Bank Graduate Scholarship 1987-1990 “Presidente de la República” Scholarship 1990 Research Grant, Sloan Foundation 1991 Research Grant, Sloan Foundation 2001-2003 Research Grant, Global Development Network 2007 Medal for Research on Development, Global Development Network 2007 Central Bank of Chile Award for Goal Achievements in 2006

2

PUBLICATIONS IN JOURNALS 1986 “Estimation of Capital Stock for the Chilean Economy: 1960-1984.” (Spanish), Estudios de

Economía, Vol. 13(1): 40-72. (Joint with E. Haindl). 1991 “The Effects of Human Capital, and Research and Development Investment on Economic

Development.” (Spanish), Estudios Públicos, 44:181-205. 1993 “Recent Cross-Country Studies of Growth. A Survey.” Revista Análisis Económico Vol.8, 2. 1993 “Growth Issues in Developing Countries: An Overview.” Estudios de Economía, Vol. 20,

Special Issue (Joint with F. Sturzenegger). 1993 “Productivity, Factor Accumulation and Economic Policy: The Case of Korea and

Singapore.” Estudios de Economía, Vol. 20, Special Issue. 1994 “Deregulation and Competition in the Gasoline Market.” (Spanish), Estudios Públicos, Nº

56, Primavera 1994. (Joint with R. Paredes and J. Vatter). 1995 “Openness and Economic Efficiency: Evidence from Chilean Manufacturing Industry.”

Estudios de Economía, Vol. 22, 2. 1995 “Management of Exchange Rate Policy under Dollar Abundance.” (Spanish), Estudios

Públicos, Verano 1996. (Joint with A. Fernández). 1997 “The Effects of the Trade Agreement with Mercosur on the Chilean Economy.” (Spanish),

Comercio Exterior Vol. 47, 11:899-906. México. (Joint with Roberto Alvarez). 1998 “Convergence in the South Cone.” Estudios de Economía, Vol. 25, 2: 179-189. (Joint with

Victor Elías). 1999 “Policy Challenges in the Chilean Fishing Sector.” (Spanish), Estudios Públicos, Nº 75, 229-

272. (Joint with J. Peña and J. Barton). 2003 “Trade Reform and Productivity in Chile: A Look 15 years Later.” (Spanish), Trimestre

Económico, Vol. LXX(1), 21-41, Mexico. (Joint with Roberto Alvarez). 2003 “From the Monetary Policy Rate to Bank Lending Rate: The Banking Industry in Chile.”

(in Spanish) Economía Chilena, 6(1): 49-67 (Joint with Solange Berstein). 2003 “Nominalization of the Monetary Policy in Chile: An Evaluation.” (Spanish), Economía

Chilena, 6(2): 5-27 (Joint with A. Jara, K. Schmidt-Hebbel and M. Tapia). 2005 “A Look to the Economic Development of Chile from an International Perspective.”

(Spanish) Economía Chilena 8(1): 7-33 (Joint with Verónica Mies). 2005 “The Equity Risk Premium in Emerging Markets: The Case of Chile.” Monetaria,

XXVIII(3), Center for Latin American Monetary Studies. (Joint with Salvador Zurita).

3

2005 “Concentration and Price Rigidity: Evidence for the Deposit Market in Chile.” Money Affairs, XVIII(1): 1-22 Center for Latin American Monetary Studies. (Joint with Solange Berstein).

2006 “Macroeconomic Factors in Chilean Stock Returns.”(Spanish), El Trimestre Económico,

LXIII(1): 125-138 (Joint with J. Gregoire and S. Zurita). 2006 “Chilean Growth Dynamics.” Economic Modelling, 23(2):197-214. (Joint with R.

Chumacero). 2006 “Complementarities between Institutions and Openness in Economic Development:

Evidence for a Panel of Countries.” Cuadernos de Economía, 43(May): 49-80. (Joint with C. Calderón).

2006 “Regional Convergence in Chile: New Tests, Old Results.” Cuadernos de Economía,

43(May): 81-112. (Joint with R. Duncan). 2006 “Measuring and Explaining Total Factor Productivity in Chile.” Cuadernos de Economía,

43(May): 113-142. (Joint with M. Larraín and K. Schmidt-Hebbel). 2006 “Patterns of Specialization in an Economy of Rapid Growth.” (Spanish), El Trimestre

Económico, LXXIII, 749-781. (Joint with Roberto Alvarez). 2006 “Dutch Disease: Theory and the International Experience.” Economía Chilena, 9(3): 97-108.

(Joint with Roberto Álvarez). 2006 “Economic Growth in Latin America: Structural Breaks or Fundamentals.” Estudios de

Economía, 33(2):141-154. (Joint with R. Chumacero) 2007 “Monetary Policy, Asset Pricing and Financial Stability: A Survey.” (Spanish) Economía

Chilena, 10(3): 115-127. (Joint with Marcelo Ochoa). 2008 “Estimating the Chilean Natural Rate of Interest.” Revista Economía Chilena (forthcoming),

Central Bank of Chile. (joint with F. Gredig). 2008 “Output Gap and the Growth Rate of the Potential Output.” Revista Economía Chilena

(forthcoming), Central Bank of Chile. (Joint with F. Gredig and M. Larraín). BOOK 2004 Banking Industry and Monetary Policy Transmission. Book edited jointly with Luis A.

Ahumada, Central Bank of Chile. BOOK CHAPTERS 1993 “Technology, Cost and Factor Demand.” (Spanish) Working Paper 108, Universidad de

Chile. (Joint with R. Paredes). 1993 “Foreign Capital in the Latin American Economies: The Case of Chile.” (Spanish), in J.A.

Ocampo (editor), Los Capitales Extranjeros en las Economías Latinoamericanas.

4

Fedesarrollo and Inter-American Bank for Development (Joint with M. Agosin and L. Letelier).

1996 “Analysis of Competitiveness of the Forestry Sector.” (Spanish), in L.H. Paul and F. Suárez

(editors), Competitividad: El Gran Desafío de las Empresas Chilenas. Centro de Estudios Públicos. (Joint with J. Vatter).

1997 “Do Regions Converge in Chile? An Interpretation.” (Spanish), in F. Morandé and E.

Vergara (editors), Análisis del Crecimiento Económico Chileno, pp. 171-196, Centro de Estudios Públicos e Ilades/Georgetown University.

1997 “National Policies and Free Trade: The Case of Chile.” (Spanish), in Sergio López Ayllón

(editor), El Futuro del Libre Comercio en el Continente Americano: Evaluación y Perspectivas, pp. 149-163. UNAM, Mexico.

2000 “Macroeconomic Influences on Bank Spreads in Chile, 1990–95.” In Philip Brock and

Liliana Rojas-Suarez (editors), Why So High? Understanding Interest Rate Spreads in Latin America, Inter-American Bank for Development, Chapter 4 (Joint with M. Basch).

2001 “Convergence in Output and Income Across Regions in Chile.” (Spanish). In Tomás

Mancha and Daniel Sotelsek (editors), Convergencia Económica e Integración, Spain. (Joint with G. Anriquez).

2001 “Why People Pay: Understanding High Performance in Chile’s Financial Market.” In

Marco Pagano (editor), Defusing Default: Incentives and Institutions, Inter-American Bank for Development. (Joint with C. Maquieira).

2004 “Is There Lending Rate Stickiness in the Chilean Banking Industry?” In Luis A. Ahumada

and Rodrigo Fuentes (editors), Banking Industry and Monetary Policy Transmission, Central Bank of Chile. (Joint with S. Berstein).

2005 “On the Determinants of Chilean Economic Growth.” In E. Fernández-Arias, R. Manuelli

and J. Blyde (editors), Sources of Growth in Latin America: What is Missing? Inter-American Development Bank. (Joint with R. Chumacero).

2006 Trade Reforms and Manufacturing Industry in Chile.” In Aroca y Hewings (editors),

Structure and Structural Change in the Chilean Economy, Palgrave – McMillan, UK. 2007 “Understanding Chilean Reforms.” In Fanelli (editor), Understanding Market Reforms in

Latin America. GDN, Palgrave – McMillan. (Joint with R. Chumacero, R. Luders and J. Vial).

2007 “Trade Reform and Economic Growth: The Experience of Chile.” In The Korean Economy

in the Era of Globalization: Issues and Policy Implications, Korean Development Institute (KDI), Seoul.

2008 “La tasa de interés real neutral: Definiciones y evidencia para Economías

Latinoamericanas” Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamerican, CEMLA (forthcoming)

5

WORK IN PROGRESS “Path of development, Specialization and Natural Resources Abundance.” Working paper 383, Central Bank of Chile (Joint with R. Alvarez). Submitted for publication to European Economic Review. “Is Ownership Structure a Determinant of Bank Efficiency?” (Joint with M. Vergara). Working paper 456. Central Bank of Chile. Revise and resubmit in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade “Dynamic Effects of Free Trade Agreements.” (Joint with R. Chumacero and K. Schmidt-Hebbel) Submitted for publication to Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. “Development Paths and Dynamic Comparative Advantages: When Leamer met Solow.” (Joint with V. Mies). Submitted for publication to Journal of Economic Growth. “On the Measurement of TFP: A Latent Variable Approach.” Working paper 419, Central Bank of Chile (Joint with M. Morales). “Effects on bank’s margin spread of changes in the management of monetary policy.” Working paper 428, Central Bank of Chile (Joint with V. Mies). “Characterizing the Business Cycles of Emerging Economies.” (Joint with C. Calderón). First draft. “Removing the Constraint for Growth.” (Joint with C. Calderón). First and incomplete draft. TEACHING EXPERIENCE 2004-2007 Macroeconomic Policies and Intermediate Macroeconomics, Pontificia Universidad

Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile 2001-2002 Global Economy, MBA at Tulane University; Macroeconomics II, MA in Economics,

Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile 1996-2001 Theory of Economic Growth (Graduate), Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Argentina. 2000 Topics in Banking, MA in Finance, Universidad de Chile 1999 Macroeconomics and International Trade, UCLA, Winter Quarter 1997-2000 Microeconomics, joint MBA Program Tulane University and Universidad de Chile 1992-1999 Intermediate Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, International Trade, Open

Macroeconomics (Undergraduate), Theory of Economic Growth and Econometrics (Master in Economics), Applied Microeconomics (MBA), Universidad de Chile.

1995 International Finance (Graduate), Ecuador OTHER ACADEMIC ACTIVITIES 2007 Regional coordinator for the project on Natural Real Interest Rate of the Research

Network of Central Banks of the Americas 1998-2007 Referee for Journal of Development Economics, the North-American Journal of

Economics and Finance, Economía Chilena, Estudios de Economía, Cuadernos de Economía and Revista de Análisis Económico

2002 Co-organizer of the VI International Conference of Central Bank of Chile: Banking Industry and Monetary Policy in Chile

1994-2000 Co-organizer of the International Conference on Economic Development, Technology and Human Resource. Joint conference: Universidad de Chile – Universidad Nacional de Tucumán

6

1992-1998 Author of the Chapter on International Economic Situation in Comentarios sobre la Situación Económica (Chilean Economic Situation Report). Yearly Publication of the Department of Economics, Universidad de Chile

1998 Editor and Organizer of Comentarios sobre la Situación Económica (Chilean Economic Situation Report). Yearly publication of the Department of Economics, Universidad de Chile

1992-1998 Editor of Estudios de Economía, Journal edited by the Department of Economics at Universidad de Chile

SPEAKER IN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES 1993-2007 Speaker at Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society, European Econometric

Society, Asian Econometric Society, LACEA Meetings, International Conference on Policy Modeling, Northern Finance Association, and other specialized conferences in Argentina, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, Turkey, Bank of Thailand’s International Symposium and The Bank of Indonesia and Ministry of Finance International Conference.

CONSULTING EXPERIENCE (since 1990) 2003-05 “Understanding the Chilean Economic Reforms.” Project Financed by the Growth

Development Network. 1998 “Demand for Telecommunication Traffic and Telephone Lines.” Project Financed by

Telefónica S.A. 1998 “Cost of Capital Estimation for Cellular Telephone Company.” Project Financed by

Telefónica Móvil S.A. 1999 “Cost of Capital Estimation for Local Telephone Company.” Project Financed by

Telefónica S.A. 1998 “Cost of Capital Estimation for Regulated Companies.” Project Financed by the Ministry

of Economics 1998 “Explaining the Chilean Economic Growth.” Project Financed by the Growth

Development Network. 1998 “Cost of Capital Estimation.” Project for Metrogas S.A. (Gas Company). 1998 “Measuring and Managing Exchange Rate Risk Exposure in Metrogas.” Project for

Metrogas S.A. (Gas Company). 1998 “Measuring and Managing Risk Exposure in Puerto Ventanas.” Project for Puerto

Ventanas S.A. (Oil Company). 1998 “Import Tariffs, Price Bands and Production Subsidy: The Case of Vegetable Oils

Market.” Project Financed by Vegetable Oil Producers Association 1998-1999 “Cost of Capital Estimation.” Project Financed by CTC (Telecommunication Company). 1998 “Institutional Arrangements to Ensure Willingness to Pay in the Financial Markets: The

Case of Chile.” Project Financed by the Inter-American Development Bank. 1998 “Sector Liberalization in APEC: The Impact on Forestry Sector.” Project for the

Economic Division of Foreign Affairs Ministry. 1998 “Measuring Risk Exposure in a Multinational Company.” Project for Embotelladora

Andina (Coca-Cola Representative in Chile). 1998 “Developing Valuation Company Models.” Project Financed by Santiago Stock

Exchange. 1997-1998 “Analysis of the Manufacturing Small Firms Competitiveness.” Project Financed by the

Ministry of Economics, Chile

7

1997 Determinants of Investment in the Forestry Sector and the Manufacturing Sector, Project Financed by ECLA.

1997 Analysis of Regional Competitiveness, Project Financed by the Ministry of Regional Development, Chile.

1996-1997 “Determinants of the Interest Rate Spread: The Case of Chile.” Project Financed by the Inter-American Development Bank.

1996-1997 Consultant of Leasing Andino S.A. on Sector Economic Performance. 1996 Valuation of Cellular Concession in XI and XII Region in Chile for STARTEL. 1996 Determination of the Cost of Capital for CTC Mundo (Long Distance Telephone

Company), June 1996. 1996 “Economic Evaluation of an Airline Route between Chile and Pacific-Asia.” Economic

Division of Foreign Affairs Ministry. 1995-1996 “The Effect of the Economic Integration Process on the Micro Enterprises in Chile.”

Ministry of Planning (Mideplan). 1995 “Analysis of the Chilean Financial System.” Leasing Andino S.A. 1995 “Cost and Benefits to join NAFTA.” Prepared for an International Conference “La

Empresa Chilena frente al NAFTA.” Santiago, Chile. 1995 “Management of Duty Free Zone in Iquique.” Asociación de Usuarios de Zona Franca. 1994 “Competitiveness Analysis of the Forestry Sector in Chile.” Centro de Estudios Públicos 1993-1994 “Efficiency and Technological Changes in the Manufacturing Sector.” DTI -Universidad

de Chile. 1993 “Determining the Degree of Competition of Energy Markets.” Universidad de Chile.

Project financed by The National Commission of Energy. 1993-1994 “Telephone Services Pricing.” ECONSULT and South Telephone Company. 1992-1994 “Telephone Services Pricing.” ECONSULT and Chilean Telephone Company. 1992 “Foreign Capital in the Latin American Economies: The Case of Chile.” Universidad de

Chile. Project Financed by the Inter-American Development Bank. 1991 “Measurement Errors and the Convergence Hypothesis.” Research Assistant at UCLA

for Professor Edward Leamer. 1991 “Pooling Noisy Data Set.” Research Assistant at UCLA for Professor Edward Leamer. 1990 “A Bayesian Perspective on Inference from Macro-Economic Data.” Research

Assistant at UCLA for Professor Edward Leamer.

1

ROBERTO ALVAREZ E.ROBERTO ALVAREZ E.ROBERTO ALVAREZ E.ROBERTO ALVAREZ E. Central Bank of Chile, Research Department

University of Chile, INTELIS Agustinas 1180 Santiago, Chile

Phone: (56-2) 670-2209 e-mail: ralvarez@bcentral.cl

EDUCATION EDUCATION EDUCATION EDUCATION

• Ph. D. in Management. UCLA Anderson School of Management. University of California Los Angeles, 2006.

• M. A., Economics, University of California Los Angeles. 2005.

• M. A., Economics, University of Chile. 1997.

• B. A., Economics, University of Chile. 1996.

PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCEPROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCEPROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCEPROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE

• Researcher, Centre for Innovation and Entrepreneurship Analysis (INTELIS), University of Chile. March 2008-present

• Senior Economist, Research Department, Central Bank of Chile. July 2006-present • Alternate Representative, National Commission of Price Distortions on Imported Goods, 2007-2008

• Research Assistant. UCLA Anderson School of Management, March 2002-June 2006, under supervision of

Professor Sebastian Edwards.

• Summer Internship: “Open Economy Macroeconomic Issues in India”, World Bank. July-September 2004, under supervision of Marina Wes.

• Consulting: “Financial Dollarization in Central America”, Regional Department Operations 2, Inter-

American Development Bank: August-September, 2003, under supervision of Manuel Agosin.

• Research Assistant: "Global Disaggregation of Information Intensive Services", UCLA Anderson School of Management, December 2001- February 2002, under supervision of Professor Uday Karmakar.

• Instructor Professor: Department of Economics, University of Chile. 1996 – 2000.

• Consulting: “Evaluation of Technological Innovation Projects”, “Impact of Free Trade Agreement with

European Union”, “Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Chile”, and “Impact of Export Promotion Programs”, Government of Chile. 1996-2000.

• Research Assistant: Department of Economics, University of Chile. 1994 - 1996.

2

FIELD OF SPECIALIZATIONFIELD OF SPECIALIZATIONFIELD OF SPECIALIZATIONFIELD OF SPECIALIZATION

• International Trade and Economic Development • Innovation and Productivity

PUBLICATIONSPUBLICATIONSPUBLICATIONSPUBLICATIONS ARTICLES IN JOURNALSARTICLES IN JOURNALSARTICLES IN JOURNALSARTICLES IN JOURNALS

• “Multinationals and Plant Exit: Evidence from Chile,” International Review of Economics and Finance, forthcoming, with Holger Görg.

• "Entry and Exit in International Markets: Evidence from Chilean Data", Review of International Economics,

forthcoming with Ricardo A. Lopez.

• “Multinational Firms and Productivity Catching-Up: The Case of Chilean Manufacturing”, International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, 1(2), 2007, pp. 136-152, with Gustavo Crespi.

• “Survival of SMES in Chile”, Estudios Públicos, No. 107, 2007, pp. 79-98, with Sebastián Vergara (in

Spanish). • “Explaining Export Success in a Developing Country: Firm Characteristics and Spillover Effects", World

Development 35(3), 2007, pp. 377-393. • “The China Price: Evidence and Some Implications”, Estudios de Economía, 33(2), 2006, pp. 117-139, with

Sebastián Claro.

• “Specialization Patterns in an Economy Growing Rapidly: The Case of Chile”, Trimestre Economico, LXXIII(4), 2006, pp. 749-781, with J. Rodrigo Fuentes.

• “Dutch Disease: Theory and Revision of International Experience”, Revista de Economía Chilena,9(3), 2006,

pp. 97-108, with J. Rodrigo Fuentes.

• “Exporting and Performance: Evidence from Chilean Plants”. Canadian Journal of Economics. 38(4), 2005, pp. 1384-1400. (with Ricardo A. López).

• “Export Orientation and Productivity in Chilean Manufacturing Industry”. Latin American Journal of Economics (Cuadernos de Economia) . 41 (December), 2004, pp. 315-343. in Spanish. (with Ricardo A. López)

• “Export Performance of Chilean Firms: Some Stylized Facts”. CEPAL Review. 83, 2004, pp. 121-134, in Spanish.

• “Sources of Export Success in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: The Impact of Public Programs”, International Business Review, 13, 2004, pp. 383 -400.

• "Exposure to Foreign Markets and Firm-Level Innovation: Evidence from Chile and Mexico", Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 13 (1), 2004, pp. 57-87, (with Raymond Robertson).

3

• “Determinants of Technical Efficiency in Small Firms”, Small Business Economics, 20 (3), May 2003, pp. 233-244, (with Gustavo Crespi).

• “Productivity and Openness in Chile: 15 Years Later”, El Trimestre Económico, LXXX(1), 277, January-March 2003, pp. 21-41, (with J. Rodrigo Fuentes), in Spanish.

• “The Impact of Licenses on a "Late Starter" LDC: Chile in the 1990s”, World Development, Vol. 30 (8),

August 2002, pp. 1445-1460, (with Gustavo Crespi and Joseph Ramos).

• “The Presence of Small and Medium Size Firms: An Analysis of Its Determinants in the Chilean Manufacturing Industry”, Latin American Journal of Economics (Cuadernos de Economia), 115, December 2001, pp. 347-365, in Spanish. (with Gustavo Crespi)

• “An Analysis of the Chilean Exports Diversification in the 90’s”. Estadistica y Economía, N 21, December 2001, pp. 85-100, (with Anthony Lemus), in Spanish.

• “External Sources of Technological Innovation in Chilean Manufacturing Industry”, Estudios de Economia, Vol. 28, N 1, June 2001, pp. 53-68.

• “Exporter Performance and Promotion Instruments: The Chilean Empirical Evidence”, Estudios de Economia, Vol 27 (2), December 2000, pp. 225-241, (with Gustavo Crespi).

• “Impact of Export Promotion Policies on Chilean Export Growth”, El Trimestre Económico, Nº 268,

LXVII (4), October, December 2000, pp. 557-577, in Spanish. (with Gustavo Crespi). • “Impact of Liquidity Constraints on Small and Medium Size Firms Performance”, Estadística y Economía,

N 18, December 1999, pp. 85-100, in Spanish. (with Gustavo Crespi, David Naschelsky and M. Gabriela Sepúlveda).

• “Economic Benefits from a Reduction in Atmospheric Pollution in Santiago de Chile”, Investigación Económica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 59 (227), January-March 1999, pp. 143-169, in Spanish. (with Eugenio Figueroa and Sebastián Valdés).

• “Chile: Effects of Free Trade Agreement with Mercosur”, Comercio Exterior, Vol. 47 (11), November 1997, pp. 899-906, in Spanish. (with J. Rodrigo Fuentes).

• “Is the Extension of NAFTA Convenient for Latin American Countries?", Revista de Economía Política, N° 26, July - December 1994, pp. 275-291, in Spanish. (with Manuel Agosin).

BOOK CHAPTERSBOOK CHAPTERSBOOK CHAPTERSBOOK CHAPTERS

• “Trade Reform and Manufacturing Industry,” in P. Aroca and G. Hewings (Eds.): Structured and Structural Change in the Chilean Economy, 2006, pp. 71-94 (with J. R. Fuentes).

• “Imperfect Labor Mobility, Urban Unemployment and Agricultural Trade Reform in Chile”, in R.

Chumacero and K. Schmidt-Hebbel (Eds.): General Equilibrium Models for Chilean Economy, 2005, pp. 375-394, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, Chile (with D. Holland, E. Figueroa and J. Gilbert)

4

• “Biodiversity and Tourism: Opportunities for Economic Development and Conservation in Chile”, in E. Figueroa and J. Simonetti (Eds): Globalization and Biodiversity: Opportunities and Challenges for Chilean Society, Chapter VIII, pp. 285-323, 2003, in Spanish. (with Eugenio Figueroa and Carlos Bravo).

• “Information Technologies and “Grassroots Tourism”: Protecting Native Cultures and Biodiversity in a Global World”, in F. Di Castri and V. Balaji (Eds.): Tourism, Biodiversity and Information, Chapter 21, pp. 349-380, 2002 (with Eugenio Figueroa).

• "Environmental Sustainability in Chilean Export Sector", in O. Sunkel (ed): Environmental Sustainability of Chilean Economic Growth, Programa de Desarrollo Sustentable del Centro de Análisis de Políticas Públicas. Universidad de Chile. 1996, in Spanish. (with Eugenio Figueroa, Guillermo Donoso, Gustavo Lagos and José Muñoz).

• "Environmental Capacitation in the Public Sector", in E. Figueroa (ed): Economic Policies for Sustainable Development in Chile. Center of Economy of Natural Resources and Environment, December, 1994 (with Eugenio Figueroa and Rodrigo González), in Spanish.

WORK IN PROGRESSWORK IN PROGRESSWORK IN PROGRESSWORK IN PROGRESS

• “Exports and Productivity: Comparable Evidence for 14 Countries,” The International Study Group on Exports and Productivity.

• “The Chinese Phenomenon: Price, Quality or Variety?”, with Sebastián Claro (Central Bank of Chile).

• “David versus Goliath: The Impact of Chinese Competition on Developing Countries,” with Sebastián Claro

(Central Bank of Chile).

• “Dynamics of Innovation and Competitiveness in Chilean Exports,” with Álvaro García (Central Bank of Chile)

• “Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices,” with Patricio Jaramillo and Jorge Selaive (Central Bank of

Chile.

• “Trade Liberalization and Industry Adjustments,” with Ricardo A. Lopez (Indiana University, USA)

• “New Products in Exports Markets: Learning Effects,” with Hasan Faruq (Xavier University) and Ricardo A. López (Indiana University)

• “Wages Effects of Chinese Import Competition,” with Luis Opazo (Central Bank of Chile).

FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDSFELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDSFELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDSFELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS

• First Place, Medals for Research and Development, Changes in Global Trade: Causes and Consequences. 2006 Global Development Awards (with Sebastian Claro)

• Second Place, Medals for Research and Development, Industrial Development and Long Term Growth. 2006

Global Development Awards (with J. Rodrigo Fuentes)

• Dissertation Year Fellowship, Graduate Division, UCLA: 2005-2006.

5

• Bradley Graduate and Post Graduate Fellowship Program, The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, Inc.: 2004-2005

• Graduate Scholarship. The Anderson School of Management: Ph. D. Global Economics and Management,

UCLA: 2004 – 2005.

• Graduate scholarship. Government of Chile: Ph. D. Global Economics and Management, UCLA: 2001 – 2004.

• Graduate scholarship. Graduate Division, University of Chile: M. A. in Economics, University of Chile: 1995-1996.

• Award “Best Professor in Undergraduate Economics Courses”: Department of Economics, University of Chile: 1998.

RESEARCH GRANTSRESEARCH GRANTSRESEARCH GRANTSRESEARCH GRANTS

• FONDECYT project: Export Diversification and Economic Growth (with Manuel Agosin and Claudio Bravo-Ortega). 2008.

• Ford Foundation - Fund for Analysis of Public Policies in Chile, “Entry and Exit of Exporter Firms and

Export Promotion Instruments”, 2000-2001.

TEACHING EXPERIENCETEACHING EXPERIENCETEACHING EXPERIENCETEACHING EXPERIENCE

• University of Chile: Trade, Innovation and Growth, Graduate School, 2007-2008 • University of Chile: Introduction to Macroeconomics, Undergraduate School, 2008

• University of Chile: Undergraduate courses in International Economics, Macroeconomics and Econometrics.

1996-2001.

• Southern University of Chile (Universidad Austral de Chile, Temuco): Graduate courses (MBA) in Macroeconomics and Microeconomics.1999-2000.

REFEREEINGREFEREEINGREFEREEINGREFEREEING

• Referee for American Economic Review (1), European Economic Review (1), Scandinavian Journal of Economics (1) Canadian Journal of Economics (1), Journal of Development Economics (1), World Development (4), World Economy (1), Journal of International Business Studies (1), Journal of International Trade and Economic Development (1), International Business Review (1), Small Business Economics (1), Research Policy (2), Journal of Applied Economics (1), Estudios de Economía (2), Trimestre Económico (1), and Cuadernos de Economía (1).

• Referee for research proposals presented at FONDECYT, Chile.

6

SEMINARS AND PRESENTATIONSSEMINARS AND PRESENTATIONSSEMINARS AND PRESENTATIONSSEMINARS AND PRESENTATIONS

• “Trade Liberalization and Industry Dynamics: A Difference in Difference Approach” World Bank, Washington D.C., January 2008

• “New Products in Export Markets: Learning from Experience and Learning from Others”

Econometric Society Meeting, New Orleans, January 2008 LACEA, Bogotá, October 2007. Chilean Economic Association Conference, Reñaca, September 2007.

• “Determinants of Manufacturing Exports to China Department of Economics, University of Chile, Santiago, November 2007.

• “Survival of SMEs in Chile” Alberto Hurtado University, Santiago, October 2007.

• “David versus Goliath: The Impact of Chinese Competition on Developing Countries” Department of Economics, University of Chile, Santiago, May 2007. Center of Applied Economics, University of Chile, Santiago, June 2007.

• “The Chinese Phenomenon: Price, Quality or Variety?” Department of Economics, University of Chile, Santiago, December 2006. 8th Global Development Network Conference, Beijing, January 2007. Seminar on Macroeconomics and Finance, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, January 2007.

• “Multinationals as Stabilizers? Employment Growth in Multinationals and Domestic Firms in an Economic Crisis” LACEA, Bogotá, October 2007 Chilean Economic Association Conference, La Serena, September 2006. Seminar on Macroeconomics and Finance, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, August 2006.

• “Is Exporting a Source of Productivity Spillovers” European Trade Study Group Eight Annual Conference, University of Vienna, September 2006.

• Does Economic Crisis Spur Organizational Change? Evidence from Chilean Manufacturing Plants” SPRU 40th Anniversary Conference, University of Sussex, September 2006. Department of Economics, University of Chile, September 2006.

• “Trade Liberalization, Price Distortions, and Resource Reallocation” Proseminar in Economic History, UCLA, January 2006.

• “Globalization, Survival, and Growth of Small and Medium-Sized Firms” Universidad Adolfo Ibanez, January 2006 School of Business, University of Chile, January 2006.

7

• “Paths of Development, Specialization, and Natural Resources Abundance” 8th Global Development Network Conference, Beijing, January 2007. Department of Economics, University of Chile, January 2006. Seminar on Macroeconomic and Finance, Central Bank of Chile, January 2006.

• “Export Transitions: From Primary to Manufacturing Exports” Proseminar in Economic History, UCLA, October 2005.

• “Productivity Spillovers from Exporting through Vertical and Horizontal Linkages” Midwest International Economics Meeting, Kansas University, October 2005.

• “Entry and Exit in International Markets: Evidence from Chilean Data” Midwest International Economics Meeting, Vanderbilt University, April 2005.

• "Determinants of Firm Export Performance in a Less Developed Country" Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank, September 2003 Proseminar in Industrial Organization, UCLA, March 2003 Midwest International Economics Meeting, Notre Dame University, October 2002. Proseminar in Development and International Economics, UCLA, September 2002

• "An Empirical Reassessment of the Relationship Between Exports and Firm Performance: The Case of Chile" Midwest International Economics Meeting, Indiana University, Fall 2003.

• “Exports and Innovation: Evidence from Chile and Mexico” Empirical Investigations in International Trade, 7th Annual Conference, November 3-5, 2000, University of Colorado, Boulder.

• “External Sources of Technological Innovation In Chilean Manufacturing Industry” Conference in Economic Growth, Technology and Human Resources, December, 2000, Santiago, Chile.

• “Exporter Performance and Promotion Instruments: The Chilean Empirical Evidence” Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) Conference, 1999 Conference in Economic Growth, Technology and Human Resources, Tucumán, Argentina, December, 1999,

• “Productivity and Openness in Chile: 15 Years Later” XVII Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society, Cancún, México, August, 1999.

José Miguel Benavente H. Diagonal Paraguay 257 of. 1503, Santiago, Chile. Departamento de Economía e-mail : jbenaven@econ.uchile.cl Universidad de Chile Teléfono : ++56-2-9783411

Datos Personales

Fecha Nacimiento: 6 de Mayo, 1968. Nacionalidad : Chilena. Posición Actual

Profesor Asistente, Jornada Completa. Departamento de Economía. Universidad de Chile. Educación

Licenciado en Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Universidad Católica de Valparaíso. 1990. Ingeniero Civil Industrial, Universidad Católica de Valparaíso. 1992. Magister en Economía, Universidad de Chile. 1994. Master of Science in Economics, University of Oxford. 1999. Doctor of Philosophy in Economics, University of Oxford. 2002. Areas de interés

Microeconometría Teórica y Aplicada, Economía de la Innovación y Política Tecnológica, Evaluación de Programas Públicos, PYMEs, Criminalidad y Empresarialidad. Cursos Dictados Recientemente

Econometría I y Econometría II. Carrera de Ingeniería Comercial. Universidad de Chile Microeconometría Aplicada. Programa de Magíster en Economía. Universidad de Chile. Microeconometría Teórica y Aplicada. Programa de Doctorado en Economía. Universidad de Chile.

Métodos Cuantitativos Avanzados. Programa de Magíster en Políticas Públicas. Universidad de Chile y Universidad de Chicago.

Artículos Publicados Recientemente

Benavente J.M. (2006) “The Role of Research and Innovation in Promoting Productivity in Chile”. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 15 (4-5) : 301-315. Junio. Benavente J.M. (2005) “Self-Discovery in a Development Strategy for El Salvador. A Comment”. Economia The Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, 6 (1) : 229-231. Otoño. Benavente J.M. (2005) “Investigación y Desarrollo, Innovación y Productividad : Un Análisis Econométrico a nivel de la Firma”. Estudios de Economía 32 (1): 39-67. Junio. Benavente J.M., Galetovic, A. y R. Sanhueza (2005) “La Dinámica Industrial y la Financiación de las PYMEs”, Trimestre Económico, LXXII (2) : 3-35. Abril-Junio. Benavente J.M., Galetovic, A, Sanhueza, R y P. Serra (2005) “Estimando la demanda residencial por electricidad en Chile: El Consumo es Sensible al Precio”. Cuadernos de Economía (42): 31-62. Mayo. Benavente J.M. (2005) “Innovación Tecnológica en Chile, Dónde Estamos y Qué se Puede Hacer”. Economía Chilena. (8): 53-76. Abril. Banco Central de Chile. Benavente J.M. (2005) “The Free Market Innovation Machine” por W. Baumol. Comentario de libro. Economía Chilena. (8): 97-99. Abril. Banco Central de Chile. Benavente J.M. (2004) “Empresario Chileno durante los Noventa : ¿ a self-made man ?”, Economía y Administración (148): 4-14. Benavente J.M. (2004) “Cooperación tecnológica entre universidades y empresas: Qué son, cómo operan y cuál es su impacto en Chile”. Serie En Foco Nº 21 Expansiva. Santiago. Benavente J.M., Johnson C. and F. Morandé (2003) “Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciations : a firm-level analysis for Chile”, Emerging Markets Review (4): 397-416.

Informes Recientes

Benavente J.M. (2005) “OCDE Survey of Chilean Innovation Policy”. Informe preparado para la OCDE. Paris. Marzo. Benavente J.M. (2005) “Situación de la Micro y Pequeña Empresa en Chile”. Informe preparado para SERCOTEC. Santiago. Marzo. Benavente J.M. (2004) “Antecedentes para el Diseño de una Política Tecnológica Nacional”. Informe preparado para la Comisión de Hacienda del Senado de la República de Chile. Santiago. Noviembre. Benavente J.M. (2004) “Fomento Productivo en Chile. Situación Actual y Perspectivas”. Informe preparado para la Comisión de Hacienda del Senado de la República de Chile. Santiago. Diciembre. Benavente J.M. (2004) “Research and Development, Innovation and Productivity: a firm level econometric analysis”. Trabajo preparado para el Banco Mundial, Washington D.C. Benavente J.M. (2003) “Empresarialidad en Economía Emergentes : Creación de empresas en América Latina y Este de Asia. Informe país: Chile”. Informe Final. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) Washington D.C. Borradores

Benavente J.M. , L. de Mello y N. Mulder (2005) “Enabling Business Innovation in Chile : What can Government do ?”. ECO/WKP (2005) 41. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD, Paris, Octubre. Benavente J.M. y F. López (2005) “Modelos de Serie de Tiempo para Proyectar Delitos en la Región Metropolitana”. Trabajo presentado en el 2ª Simposio “Investigación sobre Violencia y Delincuencia” organizado por la Fundación Paz Ciudadana. Santiago, Octubre. Benavente J.M. y R. Toledo (2005) “Métodos Econométricos para el Pronóstico de Delitos en el Gran Santiago”. Trabajo presentado en el 2ª Simposio “Investigación sobre Violencia y Delincuencia” organizado por la Fundación Paz Ciudadana. Santiago, Octubre. Benavente J.M. , S. Dobblelaere y J. Mairesse (2005) “Interaction between Product Market and Labor Market Power : Evidence from France, Belgium and Chile”. Artículo aceptado para publicación en Applied Economic Letters.

Benavente J.M. , J. de Gregorio y M. Núñez (2005) “Rates of Return for Industrial R&D in Chile”. Artículo presentado en la conferencia “R&D and Innovation in the Development Process” organizada por el Banco Mundial y la Universidad Pompeu Fabra. Barcelona, Junio. Benavente J.M. y J.L. Contreras (2005) “Margen de Utilidad y Distrubución de las Rentas : Evidencia desde la Industruia Manufacturera Chilena”. Borrador. Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile. En revision, Trimestre Económico. Benavente J.M., Melo, E. y S. Quijada (2005) “Convergence and Growth Revisited” Borrador, Departamento de Economía. Universidad de Chile. Trabajo presentado en el Encuentro Anual de Economistas. Villa Alemana, Septiembre 2004 y en seminario Economía y Finanzas, Banco Central de Chile, Enero 2005. Benavente J.M., Meller, P. y D. Rappoport (2004) “Ranking de las Universidades Chilenas según los Ingresos de sus Titulados”. Documento de Trabajo Nº 306, Banco Central de Chile, Diciembre. Artículo en revision Economics of Education Review . Benavente J.M. y C. Ferrada (2004) “Probability of Survival of New Manufacturing Plants : the Case of Chile. Trabajo presentado en el Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society. Santiago, Julio. Benavente J.M. y E. Cortés (2004) “Delitos y sus Denuncias. La Cifra Negra de la Criminalidad en Chile y sus Determinantes” Documento de Trabajo. Centro de Estudios Estratégicos y Criminológicos. Carabineros de Chile. Benavente J.M. y E. Melo (2003) “Determinantes socioeconómicos de la criminalidad en Chile durante los noventa” Trabajo presentado en el Encuentro de la Sociedad de Economía de Chile, Punta de Tralca. Benavente J.M., Contreras D., Melo E y R. Montero (2003) “Programas antidelincuencia: evaluando Comuna Segura”. Documento de Trabajo Nª 201. Departamento de Economía. Universidad de Chile. En revisión en el British Journal of Criminology. Benavente J.M., Bravo D. y R. Montero (2003) “Returns to computer use at work”. Trabajo presentado en el Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society. Ciudad de Panamá. Benavente J.M. y Crespi G. (2002) “The impact of an associative strategy on small and medium enterprises in Chile” Trabajo presentado en el 56th European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Lausanne. En revisión en Journal of Development Economics.

Contribuciones en Libros

Benavente J.M. (2006) “Wine Production in Chile” en V. Chandra (ed) Technology, Adaptation, and Exports. How developing countries got it right. Banco Mundial. Washington. Benavente J.M. (2006) “Asimetría en la Respuesta en los Precios de la Gasolina en Chile. Comentario” en M.S. Arellano y S. Valdés (eds) La Industria de los Combustibles Líquidos : El Caso de Chile. Ediciones Universidad Católica de Chile. Santiago. Benavente J.M. (2006) “Innovación y Crecimiento Económico” en M. Leporati y M. Maino (eds) Agricultura Pobreza y Crecimiento Económico en la Ruralidad. INDAP y Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias y Pecuarias, Universidad de Chile. Santiago. Benavente J.M. (2006) “¿ Qué es una regresión Lineal ?” en A.Galetovic (ed) Santiago. Dónde estamos y hacia donde vamos. Centro de Estudios Públicos CEP. Santiago. Ffrench-Davis R. , Muñoz O., Benavente J.M. y Crespi G. (2000) “The industrialisation of Chile : from 1930 to 1980” en E. Cardenas, J.A. Ocampo y R. Thorp (eds.) Industrialisation and the state in Latin America : the black legend of the post war years. Macmillan. Benavente J.M. y Crespi G. (1998) “Sesgos y Debilidades del SNI en Chile” en Agosin, M. y Saavedra N. (eds.) Sistemas Nacionales de Innovación. ¿Qué puede América Latina aprender de Japón?. Dolmen Ediciones. Santiago. Benavente J.M., Crespi G., Katz J. y Stumpo G. (1998) “Nuevos problemas y oportunidades en el desarrollo industrial de América Latina” in Stumpo G. (ed.) Empresas transnacionales: procesos de reestructuración industrial y políticas económicas en América Latina. CEPAL-Alianza Editorial. Santiago.

Referatos Realizados

The Economic Journal, Revista de Análisis Económico, Revista de la CEPAL, Estudios de Economía, Journal of Political Economy.

Evaluación de Impacto Realizadas

Programas de Fomento, PROFO, para CORFO en 1996 – Primera Evaluación, y para la

Dirección de Presupuestos, Ministerio de Hacienda, Chile en 2003 – Segunda Evaluación.

Programa Fondos de Asistencia Técnica, FAT, para CORFO en 1997. Fondo de Desarrollo e Innovación, FDI, para la Dirección de Presupuestos, Ministerio de

Hacienda, 2004. Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Tecnológico y Productivo, FONTEC, para CORFO, 2004. Programa de Microcrédito, para BancoEstado, 2005. Fondo de Garantías par Pequemos Empresas, FOGAPE, para BancoEstado, 2006. Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico, FONDECYT, para el BID, 2006.

Becas y honores

Beca al mejor alumno. Escuela de Graduados. Facultad de Economía. 1992-1993. Cheevening scholarship, British Council para estudios graduados en Oxford. 1997-1998. Beca “Presidente de la República” para estudios de doctorado en Oxford. 1998-2001. Otros cargos y responsabilidades

Director, Centro de Estudio sobre la Innovación y el Emprendimiento “I+E”. Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile. Miembro del Directorio, Centro de Microdatos. Universidad de Chile. Director del Postítulo “Economía y Finanzas para Abogados”. Departamento de Economía. Director Científico, Proyecto FONDEF D0311025 “Modelo Predictivo del Crimen para la Región Metropolitana”. Editor Revista “Estudios de Economía” Miembro grupo de expertos informe Global Entrepreneurship Monitor GEM Chile. Miembro del Círculo de Innovación Tecnológica, ICARE. Miembro del Consejo Nacional de Innovación para la Competitividad de Chile. Miembro del Comité de Pequeña Empresa del Ministerio de Economía de Chile. Consultor Banco Mundial, Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), OECD y CEPAL. Idiomas

Español, Inglés y Francés.

Abril 2007.

CINTIA KÜLZER SACILOTTO Dirección: Diagonal Paraguay, 257

Teléfonos: 02-9783447 Correo electrónico: ckulzer@econ.uchile.cl

ESTUDIOS • 2004 – 2006 Magíster en Economía Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas Universidad de Chile • 1999 – 2003 Ingeniería Comercial – Mención Economía Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas Universidad de Chile

• 1996 – 1999 Economía Jornada Vespertina

Centro de Ciencias Económicas Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS) São Leopoldo (Brasil) • 1993 – 1994 Enseñanza Media Vespertina Escola 31 de Janeiro, Campo Bom (Brasil) • 1983 – 1992 Enseñanza Básica y Media Escola Santa Teresinha, Campo Bom (Brasil)

EXPERIENCIA LABORAL • Septiembre 2007 – la fecha Investigador Asociado Departamento de Economía Universidad de Chile • Septiembre 2007 – la fecha

Directora de Estudios Emprendimiento Intelis Centro de Análisis I+E – Departamento de Economía Universidad de Chile • Mayo 2006 – Junio 2006 “Acceso y Uso de Tecnologías de Comunicación en las Empresas Chilenas 2006” División TIC – Ministerio de Economía • Enero 2005 – Mayo 2006

Jefe de Proyecto “Publicación de las Tasas de Interés y Tarjetas de Crédito” Departamento de Economía Universidad de Chile junto a Superintendencia de Bancos e Instituciones Financieras (SBIF)

• Diciembre 2005 – Febrero 2006 Investigadora Principal

Documento de Trabajo: “Organización de la Demanda por el Apoyo Público” a cargo de José Miguel Benavente (Académico Universidad de Chile)

Departamento de Economía Universidad de Chile • Diciembre 2005 – Enero 2006 Encargada de Sede de Corrección

Sistema de Evaluación del Desempeño Profesional Docente – CPEIP/MINEDUC Departamento de Economía Universidad de Chile junto a Facultad de Psicología PUC

• Mayo 2005 – Octubre 2005

Encargada de la Selección de las Publicaciones en Portugués Asamblea Anual del Consejo Latinoamericano de Escuelas de Administración CLADEA 2005

• Mayo 2005 – Agosto 2005 Ayudante de Investigación – manejo de base de datos y programación

Documento de Trabajo: “Evo, Pablo, Tony, Diego y Sonny” a cargo de Rómulo Chumacero (Académico Universidad de Chile) Banco Mundial

• Diciembre 2004 – Enero 2005 Encargada de Sede de Corrección

Sistema de Evaluación del Desempeño Profesional Docente – CPEIP/MINEDUC Departamento de Economía Universidad de Chile junto a Facultad de Psicología PUC

• Diciembre 2003 – Enero 2004

Asistente de Sede de Corrección Sistema de Evaluación del Desempeño Profesional Docente – CPEIP/MINEDUC Departamento de Economía Universidad de Chile junto a Facultad de Psicología PUC

• Julio – Diciembre 2003

Ayudante de Investigación – manejo de base de datos y programación Proyecto “Encuesta Nacional de Salud – Chile 2003” - MINSAL Departamento de Economía Universidad de Chile junto a Facultad de Medicina PUC

• 1995 – 1999

Asistente Ejecutivo Gerente General Ocean Export – Nine West Novo Hamburgo (Brasil)

• 1994 – 1995

Programadora Área Exportación Ocean Export – Nine West Novo Hamburgo (Brasil)

• 1993 – 1994

Asistente de Contabilidad Ocean Export – Nine West Novo Hamburgo (Brasil)

AYUDANTÍAS • Verano 2005

Cátedra: Econometría I Profesor(a): Javiera Vásquez Universidad de Chile

• Primavera 2004

Cátedra: Econometría I Profesor(a): Javiera Vásquez, Andrés Otero y José Miguel Benavente Universidad de Chile

• Otoño 2004

Cátedra: Econometría I Profesor(a): Patricia Toledo Universidad de Chile

• Primavera 2003

Cátedra: Macroeconomía Profesor(a): Carlos Pereira Universidad de Chile

• Primavera 2003 Cátedra: Econometría I

Profesor(a): Patricia Toledo y José Miguel Benavente Universidad de Chile • Otoño y Primavera 2003

Cátedra: Introducción a la Microeconomía Profesor(a): Maria Paola Sevilla Universidad de Chile

OTROS CONOCIMIENTOS • Idiomas: Portugués, Español e Inglés • Manejo avanzado de Internet y Microsoft Office (Word, Excel, PowerPoint) • Manejo de programas computacionales estadísticos (Stata, E-views y SPSS)

• Manejo de otros programas computacionales (Gauss, Matlab, Latex)