WHY IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM

BECAME AN ISSUES

(Iran: Developing Nuclear Power)

NORAINI BT ZULKAFLI @ ZULKIFLI ketika_kubersujud@yahoo.com

Iran: Nuclear Future?

• What is the present condition of nuclear development in Iran?

- why Iran need nuclear

-when Iran start develop?

-where the base?

• What are the Response of the international community?

• What are the response of the Iran?

IRAN DEVELOPMENT • Claimed that they had produced enriched uranium, for peaceful

purposes

• Now on the path towards nuclear fuel

• Wants to thwart its reliance on oil, not dev. Weapons

• Russia and China support Iran’s nuclear development (members

of UN SC)

• However, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad has claimed that

“Israel would soon disappear off the map and the ‘satanic power’

of the United States would be destroyed.”

• May 8, 2008-Israel a “stinking corpse” and said that “those who

think they can revive the corpse of this fabricated and usurper

regime are mistaken

• “If any regional countries assist the Zionist regime, they will burn

in fire arising from nations’ hatred

• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says “this technology is a victory for the Islamic world”

• “We have the right to use this knowledge and you [the IAEA, international community] have the right to be assured that it would be channeled in the right way”

• In addition, he said his country is ready to share its technology with other nations

• First on list, Sudan – President Bashir considering a civilian nuclear program

http:www.nti.org

IAEA • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says there is no proof that Iran is

seeking nuclear weapons, but there is an “absence of confidence that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively peaceful” due to its policy of concealment…

• IAEA will report back to UNSC regarding Iran’s actions before decisions are made

• "Iran has not cooperated with the Agency in connection with the remaining issues ... which need to be clarified in order to exclude the possibility of there being military dimensions to Iran´s nuclear program." -- IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei (http://www.cfr.org/publication/16811/irans_nuclear_program.html:2003)

• IAEA’s Additional Protocol (the so-called 93+2), intended to increase the transparency of a state’s nuclear program

• September 2005 board resolution described as“Iran’s many failures and breaches of its obligations to comply with its safeguards agreement.” like fail declare the facilities where nuclear material (including the waste) was received, stored and processed, provide in a timely manner updated design information for a research reactor located in Tehran, as well as provide in a timely manner information on two waste storage sites

UN APPROACH

• Iran has failed to meet certain obligations of reporting on nuclear activities

• Many countries suspicious

• Is it really for peaceful purposes?

• If Iran was to build a bomb, it might provoke another arms race (in the Middle East)

• Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc

• Terrorism

• UN Security Council gave Iran 30 days to freeze its program (deadline April 28) or face sanctions

US • The US on the other hand maintained the view that Iran could only be changed

through pressure and sanctions and in 1995 the Clinton administration passed the so-called D’Amato bill (ILSA) of economic sanctions

• "If Iran is willing to enter into serious negotiations, then they will find a willing participant in the United States and the other [partner] countries." - P.J. Crowley, U.S. State Department spokesman (http://www.cfr.org/publication/16811/irans_nuclear_program.html)

• “Axis of Evil” (Bush-2003-2002)- the single greatest challenge facing the US

• US supported EU-3 efforts and leaned heavily on China and Russia to vote in favor of reporting Iran to the Security Council

EU-3

• Britain, France, and Germany

• In Tehran, in October 2003, they convinced Iran to agree to suspend its enrichment and sign an additional protocol to the NPT that would permit more thorough inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities. The “Tehran Agreement” saved Iran from the immediate threat of UN sanctions, opened the door to closer surveillance by the IAEA, and put the Iranian nuclear program on hold for the time being

• 29th March 2006, a Security Council statement, sponsored by France and Britain called for Iran to reestablish ‘full and sustained suspension of all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development

ARAB WORLD • Iran during the 1990s

• Arab concern about Iran’s ability to leverage its geopolitical mass to dominate the Gulf

• the Gulf Cooperation Council states, “have shrugged off dire predictions of the dangers of a nuclear armed Iran

• Tehran’s nuclear arsenal would “balance” Israeli and American nuclear weapons

• Arab states also will have to worry that Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons will embolden Tehran to revert to a more aggressive foreign policy

• The Iranians have supported Hezbollah operations against American forces as an appendage of Iranian foreign policy to push the Americans out of the Gulf

• The Arab states worry that they will be caught in a crossfire in an American military campaign against Iran (most Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Syria)

• The Arab regimes especially will worry that Israeli military operations against Iran whether by air or sea would spark street demonstrations that could spark public resentment against Arab regimes

• the Israeli Knesset said Iran’s nuclear weapons program represented “the biggest threat to Israel’s existence since its creation” in 1948. if necessary, militarily to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons will use

RUSSIAN • Russia has trained hundreds of Iranians to work on the Bushehr plant,

but insists that the information acquired would not give the Iranians the necessary knowledge to build nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Russia insists that its cooperation with Iran is under strict IAEA supervision.

• Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, ‘I don’t think sanctions as a means to solve a crisis have ever achieved a goal in the recent history’.

• January 2006, Russia agreed to support a resolution that would report Iran to the Security Council after meeting foreign ministers in London

• 2010,Russian President Dmitry Medvedev-"It is obvious that Iran is moving closer to possessing the potential which in principle could be used for the creation of nuclear weapons," , "show openness and cooperate" (http://en.rian.ru/world/20070301/61414089.html)

CHINA

• According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Kong Quan, ‘China still hopes that peaceful negotiation and diplomatic means are good choices for resolving the Iranian nuclear issue and serve the interests of all the parties concerned.’

• With large economic assets at stake in Iran, China, like Russia, has good reason to avoid any route that might lead to sanctions. However, China eventually agreed under great pressure during the London meeting of Foreign Ministers. China later voted in favour of having Iran reported to the Security Council.

IRAN’S RESPONSE:

• Back to slide 4.

• If sanctions are imposed by the UN, it will suspend contact with the IAEA.

• If the country is attacked militarily, it will hide its nuclear program completely.

• Question:

– What can the international community do to ensure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons, or should they be allowed to have this technology?

SANCTION

ECONOMY

POLITIC DIPLOMATIC

-1995 the Clinton administration passed the so-called D’Amato bill (ILSA) of economic sanctions (European Union Center of North Carolina EU Briefings, March 2008 ) -UN Security Council Resolution 1737 of 23 December 2006, which for the first time imposed economic sanctions on Iran- ban on the import and export of nuclear-related activities, and freezing the assets of several Iranian companies and individuals -Sanctions on Iranian export of oil and import of refined oil products, Freezing of assets, embargo trade, Banking sanctions,

Diplomacy-negotiation -2002, the EU/E3 – France, the UK and Germany have been engaged in diplomatic attempts to prevent Iran from developing a full nuclear fuel cycle. The EU/E3-led talks gave rise to hopes of a successful resolution -2003, Iran signed an Additional Protocol (AP) with the IAEA, a move towards giving IAEA inspectors greater investigatory freedom inside the country -2004, the EU/E3 signed the Paris Agreement with Iran, negotiating a voluntary and temporary suspension of uranium enrichment activities -February 2006, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council. In response, the Iranian government suspended its observance of the AP, though comprehensive safeguards continue to be in force

-March 2006, the IAEA Board report confirmed that Iran had not been sufficiently transparent about its nuclear activities -June 2006, following a meeting in Vienna, the P5+1 countries (the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany) offered a package of incentives aimed at encouraging Iran to give up its nuclear enrichment activities. -“international legitimacy” -individual target sanction -Encouragement of ethnic or social rebellion

http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=7271.

WHY AFTER THE SANCTION IRANIAN GOVERNMENT STILL DEVELOPING THEIR NUCLEAR

PROGRAM?

What can the international community do/did to ensure Iran does not obtain

nuclear weapons?

Should they be allowed to have this technology?

THE CHOICES TO STOP IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM

-LEADERSHIP (SUMMIT, MEETING)

-ISOLATION (ECONOMIC)

-ENGAGEMENT

-STICK AND CARROT (WIN-WIN SITUATION)

-STICK - ILSA

-ATTACKS (LAST RESULT)

Leadership

• “United States should make clear what it is prepared to give Iran in return for indefinite suspension of Iran's enrichment program.” Geoffrey Kemp

• Iran had not attacked its neighbors. In fact, it had been the victim of Iraqi aggression and chemical strikes

• Within the Administration, we were intrigued by the possibility of an official dialogue with the constitutional authorities. Madeleine Albright, Dec. 17, 2001

Engagement • The revolution in Iran has been in power for over 20 years

• It is not in danger of being overthrown.

• No significant opposition movement exists

• Iran’s laws are becoming more investor-friendly and foreign companies are responding.

• Robert pelletreau: major issues for US in the 21st century are international terrorism, narcotics trafficking, and the spread of nuclear weapons as three urgent will require cooperation between US and Iran to be dealt effectively

Sticks and Carrots

• "The reason we're having these discussions is because they were caught enriching uranium after they had signed a treaty saying they wouldn't enrich uranium.“ Bush in Bratislava, Feb. 2005

Sticks and Carrots (2)

Possible Carrots

for Iran from the United States

• Help joining the World Trade Organization

• The sale of spare parts for Iran's decrepit fleet of Boeing airliners

• The unfreezing of Iranian assets held in the USA.

Sticks

• ILSA: Iran Libya Sanction Act

-US has used 104 sanctions from First World War

-From 1993, US has used 61 sanctions to other countries.

• Caspian oil and gas transportation via Iran is banned

• Radio Farda

• IMF and WB loans for Iran are difficult

• WTO membership

• Sending the file to the UN Security Council

• Legal cases in US courts

conclusion • The risk.

• Trust

• Ideology

• The way we thinking

• Solution

This time table is taken from ‘Iran,Israel_and_Nuclear_War_(2007).pdf ‘(will be provid soon)