Water Resources Management in Pakistan

Dr. Mirza Arshad Ali Beg *Former Director General (P&D) PCSIR136-C Rafahe Aam Housing society, Malir Halt, Karachi-75210

The Resource The Geographical area of Pakistan is, as shown in the following Table, spread over 310,322 square miles or 79.61 million hectares (MHa) of land area, of which about 34 MHa comprises agricultural land; 21.5 MHa cultivated area while the total cropped area was over 22.75 MHa in 2000-2001 which increased to 24.01 MHa in 2009-2010.

Land Use (Million Hectares)Year Geograph

ical Area

Not Available for Cultivation

Agricultural Land

Arable Land

Cultivated Area

Area Sown More than Once

Total CroppedArea

2000-2001

79.61 24.45 34.82 31.04 21.95 6.46 22.75

2009-2010

79.61 23.47 33.66 29.42 21.28 7.77 24.01

Source: Pakistan Statistical Year Book 2011

Water ResourcesThe water resources in Pakistan are composed of the surfacewater and the groundwater aquifer and as shown in thefollowing Table the two of them together contribute 134 MAF onan annual average basis.

Overall Water Availability (MAF)Year Surface Water Ground Water Total

Availability

Canal Head

Farm Gate

Public T. Wells

Private T. Wells

SCARP Tube Wells

Other PrivateT. Wells

2000-2001

86.17 84.72 1.93 39.15 9.27 - 134.57

2001-2002

79.61 84.34 1.93 39.71 8.65 - 134.63

2002-2003

96.41 84.46 1.93 40.08 8.01 - 134.48

2003- 103.15 84.76 1.93 40.08 8.01 - 134.78

20042004-2005

85.92 85.66 1.93 40.08 8.01 - 135.68

2005-2006

104.53 87.06 1.93 39.98 8.01 - 136.98

2006-2007

101.96 87.48 1.93 40.38 8.01 - 136.98

2007-2008

102.46 87.68 1.93 39.98 8.01 0.40 138.00

2008-2009

95.41 81.19 1.93 39.98 8.01 0.40 131.51

2009-2010

96.74 93.49 1.91 40.50 7.00 0.80 133.70

Source: Pakistan Statistical Year Book 2011

It may be seen from the above Table that the total actualrenewable water resources has remained at around 134 MAF. Dueto steady increase in population, the per capita wateravailability has decreased from 1,174 m³ in 2000-2001 to 1,020m³ in 2007-2008, and has decreased to 0.947 m³ i.e. below 1000m3 in the year 2009-2010.

The per capita availability of water was 5,300 m3 in 1951 whichplaced Pakistan among the water-rich countries. It has eversince been transitioning towards being water-stressed and itwas so in the year 2007-2008 when the water availability wasreduced to 1,020 m3. The per capita water availability wasreduced to 0.951 m³ in the year 2008-2009 and to 0.947 m³ in2009-2010. Pakistan has thus been relegated to the category ofwater-stressed countries since the year 2007-2008. Thisindicates that the water resource management system needsimprovement to make it sustainable.

Per Capita Water Availability in PakistanYear Water

Availability (MAF)

Population(Million)

Per Capita Water Availability (m3)

2000-2001 134.57 140.88 1,1742001-2002 134.63 143.81 1,1512002-2003 134.48 146.75 1,1272003-2004 134.78 149.65 1,1072004-2005 135.68 152.52 1,0942005-2006 136.98 155.36 1,0842006-2007 136.98 162.91 1,0342007-2008 138.00 166.41 1,0202008-2009 131.51 169.94 0.951

2009-2010 133.70 173.51 0.947Source: Pakistan Statistical Year Book 2011

Water Resource ManagementGlobal Water ResourcesWater covers 71% of the Earth's surface; 97.5% of the surfacewater is saltish and contained by the oceans, the remaining2.5% is freshwater, most of which is locked up in theAntarctica. The remaining freshwater is found in lakes,rivers, wetlands, the soil, aquifers and atmosphere. All lifedepends on the solar-powered global water cycle, theevaporation from oceans and land to form water vapour thatlater condenses from clouds as rain, which then becomes therenewable part of the freshwater supply.

Global Freshwater Flows Global precipitation rate: 110,000 km3/ year. Evaporation (Transpiration): 66% of precipitation

evaporates (transpires) into the atmosphere Surface water (Run Off): 40,000 km3/ year flows to seas

via rivers, streams and underground aquifers (groundwater).

In northern North America, Europe and Asia, 55 rivers(with a combined flow of 5% of global runoff) are soremote that they have no dams on them.

About 75% of global runoff (30,000 km3/ yr) is in the formof floodwater.

Large dams, which can hold 14% of the world annualrunoff, have increased the stable supply of waterprovided by underground aquifers and year around riverflow by nearly 33%.

This brings total stable, renewable supply of globalfreshwater to 14,600 km3/ year. Of this total supply,12,500 km3/ year is geographically within reach, and henceis accessible for irrigation, industrial and householduse.

This is also responsible for drying up the delta of allthe river systems that have been dammed.

Changes in Ecological Balance of Water ResourcesThe scarcity, it was forecast by a report of the UN Economicand Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific ESCAP 1996,

would be the most pressing problem in Pakistan in the comingyears, and is likely to continue for the next few years. Thisis because there is a mismatch between availability fromsurface run off and extensive water use that has increased inAsia, in general, by almost 300% between 1950 and 1995 withthe result that withdrawal from all sources viz. rivers,lakes, and reservoirs while underground aquifers are beingmined at an unprecedented rate.

Surface Water Availability in PakistanThe water availability in Pakistan rivers is highly erraticand unreliable. The highest annual water availability in therecorded history from 1922 to date was 186.79 MAF (millionacre feet) in the year 1959-60. During the 2000-2010 yearperiod the inflow recorded at Rim Stations has varied betweenthe minimum of 98.55 MAF in the year 2001-2002 and maximum146.32 MAF in 2005-2006.

Surface Water Availability in Pakistan (MAF)Year Wester

n Rivers

Eastern Rivers

Total Inflow at Rim Stns.

Total Canal Withdrawal

Total Canal Withdrawal in Sindh

Escapage BelowPanjnad

Escapage belowKotri

2000-2001

102.88 1.07 103.95 86.17 36.86 2.08 0.78

2001-2002

97.17 1.38 98.55 79.61 34.63 1.77 1.93

2002-2003

118.02 0.89 118.91 93.41 .3941 4.43 2.37

2003-2004

137.93 1.13 139.06 103.09 42.97 10.05 20.18

2004-2005

112.52 0.83 113.35 87.72 38.85 2.97 0.28

2005-2006

145.13 1.19 146.32 106.44 46.25 11.27 24.53

2006-2007

142.66 1.63 144.29 99.66 41.64 11.77 21.73

2007-2008

126.08 1.25 127.33 104.47 44.02 4.56 15.80

2008-2009

118.48 4.03 122.90 97.05 42.49 2.87 5.81

2009-2010

120.30 0.30 120.60 98.93 42.72 0.48 4.07

Source: Pakistan Statistical Year Book 2011

Water Management System in PakistanWater management system comprises harnessing the resource forirrigating the land, for power production, industrial anddomestic use, including drinking water. An average 85 MAF hasbeen made available at farm gate for agricultural purposes. Byfar most water is used for irrigated agriculture, emphasizingthe particular significance of agriculture in the country. Thesector contributes about 25% of the Pakistan's GNP (2000-2001). The country has the world's largest contiguousirrigation system.

Area Irrigated & Underlain by Depth of Water Table(000 hectare)

Year Month Irrigated Area (Million Hectares)

Area Under 0-5 ft depth of Water

Area Under 5-10 ft depth of Water

Total Canal CanalT.Wells

Pakistan

Sindh

Pakistan

Sindh

2001 June 17.83 6.98 7.32 530 318 5150 3052

October

2732 2439

5988 4176

2009 June 19.67 6.86 8.07 1107 698 6649 4395

October

3915 3277

7249 4916

In 2001, the total irrigated area in Pakistan was 17.83MHa, ofwhich 14.3 MHa was canal irrigated while the remaining landused groundwater related sources. The irrigated area, howeverincreased in 2009 to 19.67 MHa and the share of canalirrigated water 14.93 MHa. The small but significant increasein irrigated area shows that the water resources, despitebeing limited are being spread too thin. Surface water is alsobeing used for power generation, since about 29% electricityis generated through hydroelectric power.

Management of Irrigation System

Land and water are ecologically linked in a natural system called a watershed. Water whether in the form of a droplet or a stream or mighty river has worked since the ancient past to shape the land. The droplets wet the soil and continuous wetting makes the slurry so formed to flow under gravity through channels. This process takes the soil/sediment and thedissolved matter along the channels and rivers and finally to the sea.

The river is thus a product of the ecosystem of the land itflows through. The type of rock and soil, the shape of land,the geology, geomorphology, vegetation and the mineral mattercontained in them are only some of the factors that determinethe shape, size, flow and productivity of the river.

Irrigation System: Irrigation in the Indus basin prior to theBritish rule was dependent upon inundation canals like Nara,Phuleli and the Pinyari. The Kalhoro dynasty (1701-1783 AD) iscredited for building canals, following the old courses of theriver. They were neither appropriately graded, norregulated, but were being efficiently managed; some of themincluded the 10 mile long Nurwah, the inundation canal Begari,the 2 mile long Shah-ji-Kur, and the 20 mile long Date-ji-Kurwhich are now all absorbed in the Warah canal. The Rohri canalhas similarly absorbed the Nasrat Wah, Murad Wah and Ferozabranches in central Sindh.

The Talpurs who succeeded the Kalhoros also constructed newcanals e.g. Mir wah in Khairpur but their lack of interest inagriculture led to the deterioration of the canal system, ingeneral. The tremendous potential of the Indus was realized bythe British and after their success in the doabs of the Punjaband NWFP, they put their plans to construct a barrage atSukkur, prepared in1855, into action. The Sukkur barrageirrigation system has the largest irrigation network with acultural command area (CCA) of 3.0 MHa, stretching from theupper to the lower Sindh. It has seven canals, three on theright and four on the left. The Rohri canal is the largestwith a CCA of 1.04 MHa, followed by Nara with a CCA of 0.88MHa.

Two more barrages were built after Partition in 1947 torealize the full potential of the Indus. The Kotri barrage wascompleted in 1955. It has four canals, three on the left andone on the right and has a CCA of 1.12 MHa. The Guddu barrage,completed in 1962 has a CCA of 0.88 MHa. It has two canals onthe right, one of them being Pat Feeder, which irrigates alarge area of Balochistan and one on the left.

The canal system developed for the purpose of irrigation andfor meeting the growing food demands was not sustainable.Although it was required to be developed in response to theamount of water available, nature of crops grown, croppingpattern and intensity, nature of soil, and climatic condition,yet the distribution of water and consequently itsavailability to the end users has not been equitable and alsonot according to crop requirements for various reasons, bothtechnical and political. The result is that the croppingintensity, yield of crops and the expected economic benefitshave not been achieved. The impact of the degradation isserious and is being reflected in the loss of productivity ofthe soil.

Sukkur barrage command area was, for example, not provided adrainage system, although its need was known to the British.The provision was not considered necessary because the watertable existing all around was too deep to require an immediateattention. Large areas of Sindh had water tables below 3.6 mbefore 1932. The British had dug deep wells along theirrigation canals to monitor the rise in the water level. Thisapparently was not enough because time has shown that thelaying of irrigation canals have to be simultaneouslyaccompanied by the construction of drainage canals. The resultwas not unexpected; the water level in the monitoring wellshad been constantly rising. The position had become so seriousby 1959 that services of consultants were hired to study theposition in Khairpur and Kotri command areas and to proposemitigation measures.

The situation worsened along and across the irrigationnetwork. Waterlogging emerged mainly along the major canallines and topographic depressions, while water shortage wasexperienced at the tail end of the canals. The maximum land

slope of 1:7000 is noticed to be away from the river towardsthe southeast. The slope to the south and towards the Rann ofKutch is very slight, it is only 1:15,000 to 1:20,000,suggesting that the natural drainage is ill-defined andvirtually non-existent.

The soil of the area is of recent alluvial origin. It ispedalogically immature and has very little weatheringcharacteristics. Its upper layers are young and have physicalproperties that reflect their mode of deposition. The soil ismostly silty loam and silty clay loam. It contains gypsum andcalcium carbonate. The land is highly saline and sodic if itis not cultivated, while non- saline sodic soil is rare,representing less than 2% of the CCA. The land of the CCA wasknown to be vulnerable to degradation induced by rise in watertable, poor farming practices and inaccessibility toagricultural inputs.

The alluvial nature of the soil is still being maintainedsince it contains ample quantities of exchangeable andavailable calcium, magnesium and potassium. The nitrogen,phosphate and organic matter content of the soil is low butall crops respond to the application of chemical fertilizersand animal manure.

Man made interventions, like the construction of unlinedcanals without the provision of adequate drainage, have brokenthe ties between the land and river by diverting the flow intoa channel or to storage sites for a dam. Consequences of suchinterventions are felt throughout the watershed. The positiveimpact in the form of benefits appear immediately after theircommissioning while the negative impacts on the land as wellas web of life it supports, surface up gradually, with theirseverity assuming larger proportions in 10 to 15 years. Theactive life of the irrigation system should therefore be putat 12 to 15 years. Indeed the negative impact of canal waterirrigation system at the Doabs and at Sukkur Barrage CCA hadstarted emerging in the form of rise in groundwater level andsalinization of soil in less than 10 years at almost theentire irrigation network.

Construction of Dams

Increasing the water use by 300% is the greatest interventionof ecosystem by man and his processes aimed at achieving afast rate of economic growth. Ecosystem of concerned regionsof the earth has been modified by different practices for useof surface and ground water for irrigation and for domesticuse. Construction of large dams with a height of over 15 metreat a rate of 300 every year has caused the largestintervention in the water cycle by having over 40,000 damsconstructed all over the world.

An adverse effect noticed from the operation of large dams ledto the construction of small dams and hundreds of thousands ofponds. Dams and ponds increased the losses due to evaporationand seepages and the consequent increased availability ofwater vapour in the air, and as groundwater besides losing theadvantages that were naturally available from the ecosysteme.g. firewood, livestock, poultry, fish, cow dung, biomass andbiodiversity.

Of all the ways to tamper with or harm a river, a large damusually has the most immediate and far-reaching effectsbecause of the huge changes it causes to river hydrology, itscirculation system and social as well as economic system. Theman made interventions on surface water flow are therefore lowin terms of their sustainability.

Most of the over 40,000 large dams that were built in the lastmillennium, have on the one hand impoverished the world'srivers of their water flow, and on the other hand haveinundated more than 400,000 square kilometers, an area largerthan Zimbabwe, and 13 times the size of Lesotho. The 8,500 km2Volta Reservoir behind Ghana's Akasombo Dam, the world'slargest intervention, flooded 4% of land area of that country.United States of America having 5,500 large dams is the secondmost dammed country in the world; it has stopped buildinglarge dams, and is now diverting its funds to fix the problemscreated by existing dams.

The country depends on six major water projects – Gomal ZamDam, Mirani Dam, Mangla Dam, Spartha Dam, Guddu Barrage andSehwan Barrage – to harness its waters. The 1929 flood (951feet above sea level) served as a marker for this year’s

devastation. But that level was broken this year when waterscrested at 961 feet. The lack of storage capacity on the Indusresulted in flooding and devastation. Things would have beeneven worse if the Tarbela Dam had not stored 233,000 cusecs ofwater during the floods in the year 2011.

With the increase in population the demand for water for foodcrops will increase and requirements for drinking water andelectricity will also rise. Loss of storage capacity due tosedimentation of Tarbela Dam was 3.03 MAF (26%), the ManglaDam 1.18 MAF (20%), the Chashma barrage 0.37 MAF (43%) with atotal loss of 4.58 MAF (25 per cent) of the original storagecapacity of 18.37 MAF up to the year 2002.

This may have decreased further by 6MAF in the year 2010 whichis virtually equal to the original storage capacity of 5.9 MAFof the Mangla Dam constructed in 1967 and is nearly equal tothe storage capacity of 6.1 MAF of the proposed Kalabagh Dam.

It is estimated that almost 10% of the agricultural foodproduction is now dependent on mined groundwater. Water tablesthat were falling at a rate of one metre per year have beengoing down at a much rapid rate. In the Quetta valley, forexample it has fallen by 30 metre between 1980 and 2000. Asimilar situation is being faced in China, India, Mexico andYemen to name a few.

Loss of storage capacity in the aquifers and their miningalready indicates that availability of water in Pakistan hasdecreased and is less likely to be reversed since rechargingof the aquifer takes several hundred years, if left to thenatural process of surface water infiltration. Fluctuations inwater table are vulnerable to weather changes e.g. changes intemperature, humidity and rainfall. These changes affect therate of evaporation and evapotranspiration and also the sub-soil flow.

Aridity causes increased evaporation, which in certain casesis in excess of 3 cusecs per square mile in certain worseareas. Evaporation from soil surface is related to the depthof groundwater. It is very high, ranging up to 50% ofthe surface water evaporation; 20% for a depth of 5 ft and 33

to 55% for a depth of 10 ft .for a groundwater depth of 2 to 3ft.

During the 2000-2010 year period, the rivers in Pakistancarried a minimum of 98.55 MAF in the year 2001-2002 andmaximum 146.32 MAF in 2005-2006. Total canal withdrawal on theother hand varied between 79.46 in the year 2001-2002 andmaximum 106.44 MAF in 2005-2006 or an average of 96 MAF wasdiverted into canals while the remainder was lost into thesoil as groundwater or to water logging. The escapagedownstream Kotri Barrage ranged between 0.28 MAF in 2004-2005and maximum 24.53 MAF in 2005-2006, averaging at 0.97 MAF forthe 10 year period between 2000 and 2010.

Construction of embankments to protect land from floodingconstitutes another set of interventions that has caused anirreversible damage to the ecosystem of the riverine and deltaareas. The embankments have removed floodplains and aquifer isnot recharged with same frequency and intensity as in the pastand thus ecology has changed abruptly, adversely &irreversibly. They have, besides depriving the delta area ofwater flow and traditional rice crop, induced seawater upflowinto the river.

Past Trend in Maintaining the Water BudgetPakistan was until the late 1980s receiving 180 bcm or 145 MAFof surface flow from snow and glacier melt and from themonsoon system as the main constituents of its water budget.The melting of perennial snow cover and glaciers in the LesserHimalayas, which are the south oriented outer ranges of theHimalayas in the northern part of Indus Basin, starts when thesun moves northward after March each year and is a majorsource of the river flow.

The Kailas range holds the key to the supply of water to twomain river systems viz. the Indus that drains its water to thewest and southwest, and the Brahamaputra, which flows east andthen via Assam to the Bay of Bengal. It is interesting thatboth the rivers rise from Lake Mansarowar. 

Himalayan glaciers feed 7 major Asian rivers - the Ganges,Indus, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Huang He -

ensuring a year-round water supply for two billion people.Shrinking glaciers, being attributed to global warming,threaten the uniformity of the flows of these major rivers,and hence threaten the water supplies of these billions ofpeople. The shrinking glaciers of the Andes Mountains in LatinAmerica, the Rocky Mountains in the western US and the Alps ofEurope probably account for the remaining one billion peoplewhose water supplies are put at risk as a result of shrinkingglaciers.

The glacial and snowmelt in the upper Indus catchment area arethe source of 80% flow during the summer. There is only minorvariation in the timing and volume of annual flow of snowmelt.95 bcm or 84% of the total mean flow measured for the Indus atKalabagh takes place between April and September, which is thekharif season. The rise in flow volume due to snowmelt startsfrom early May and attains its height between the last week ofJune and first week of July, which is the time for the firstflood flow. This is either accompanied or followed immediatelyby a higher glacial melt combined with monsoon rains in thecatchment area starting from mid-July to August.

The water level in the river starts falling from September andreaches its minimum between mid-January and mid-February,whereafter the upper reaches beyond Skardu run dry. The driestmonth for the Indus is February, with an average annual winterflow recorded for the 1956 to 1997 period being 17.95 bcm,while July has the highest seasonal inflow, the annual averagesummer flow being 112.2 bcm.

The snowmelt, according to observations from the satelliteimageries, starts from April each year. By mid-April there issubstantial flow of the over 30,000 cusecs and by the end ofJune 50% of the basin is free of snow. The remaining 50% ofthe snow cover keeps melting through the summer. A recessionstarts in the snowmelt hydrographs towards the end of Augustuntil it hits the base flow towards the end of October.However, 18% of the snow covered area remains unaffected anddoes not see the light of the day. Not much of recession inthe glacier area is reported to have occurred since themeteorologists have been claiming a large amount of snowfallon the catchment area.

The monsoon system, which is the other constituent of thewater budget, comprises the following sequences: (a) aneastward push of the warm current that starts from the easterncoast of Africa, (b) intense heating of the desert areaextending from Balochistan, and Rajasthan to Central India inthe east and from the desert areas of Kharan and Thar in Sindhin the south to the Potohar plateau in the north of Pakistan,resulting in heat waves from March to mid-June, with sizzlingtemperatures of 43oC to 48oC that would create low-pressurezone over the region with its focus on the Nokundi-Sibbi-Jacobabad axis, (c) the westward pull of moist air by the lowpressure zone created by heat wave, (d) breaking of monsoon inearly June at the southwest of the Indian Peninsula, (e)causing the monsoon winds to travel across the IndianPeninsula and over the Bay of Bengal, (f) picking up moremoisture to the point of saturation and supersaturation andcausing a series of storms by the simultaneous entry of moistair from the Bay of Bengal and from the Arabian Sea, (f)plenty of rainfall following the breaking of monsoon inBangladesh, Nepal, eastern and northern provinces of India,the snow covered mountainous region comprising Siwaliks andouter Himalayas and the catchment areas of Indus andBrahamputra that is by this time left with 50% snow cover, (g)intense and heavy precipitation over the area and theadjoining plains initiating flood flow in July, (h)bifurcation of system on reaching Central India with one ofits branches entering Pakistan from east and the other fromnorth and (i) diffusion of monsoon current.

The warm current from East Africa and the winds accompanyingit have sufficient driving force when they strike thesouthwest of the Indian Peninsula to move past its easterncoast in early June. The winds shed their moisture at thispoint but when they emerge at the western side of Bay ofBengal, they find the water warmer. They pick up more moisturefrom the Bay of Bengal, get saturated and supersaturated asthey proceed landward to the northeast. The velocity of windsis reduced due to over-saturation and their rising in the formof towering rain clouds.

The driving force henceforth is the temperature gradient i.e.the intensely heated, low-pressure zone extending from CentralIndia to Pakistan and Iran and the cold front of the snowcover of the Himalayas. If the winds are weak the system failsto push the moisture laden winds to the zone past centralIndia into Pakistan and there is heavy rainfall in the easternzone However, if the winds are strong enough they push thesystem westward to the low pressure zone after shedding thewater content over the Bay of Bengal. The winds lose almost80% of the moisture during their travel from Bangladesh toCentral India and the rainfalls in Pakistan are only of mediumintensity.

There are two flood flows in the Indus river system; one dueto the early rains in mid-July when the snowmelt contributesits share and the other in mid-August when it is mostly due toprecipitation There is widespread flood and large areas areinundated when the catchment area is overfull due to increasein flow volume beyond absorption and drainage capacity of thesystem. The rate of run off increases rapidly after each heavydownpour in the catchment area as was observed in 1973, 1988,1992 and 1997 when there was heavy precipitation in thecatchment areas of the rivers of the Indus system and largeareas were inundated. Volume of discharge during the summerseason exceeds 10 to 20 times the winter flow.

Departure from Past TrendVariations mostly due to macro-climatic changes have beenrecorded in the flow in the rivers due to snowmelt, in themagnitude and intensity of the heat wave and in the occurrenceof rains and floods during the last five years. The pattern ofwater flow due to snowmelt, which brings the first flood-flowin the Indus and Jhelum was not followed during the last twoyears. The Indus did not receive the flow volume as in thepast, while the Brahamputra did although both rise from theheights of Tibet.

Kabul was the only river, which supplied the snowmelt andthere was some water to be found in the upper reaches of Indusotherwise it would have been running dry as in lower Sindh.Precipitation on the east of Lake Mansarowar, the catchmentarea for the Brahamputra was heavy and either the winds

slackened so as not to reach the catchment area of the Induson the west or there was not enough moisture in the clouds orsnow cover left to contribute to the flow.

The inadequacy of snowmelt in the Indus system did not raisethe inflow at Tarbela or Mangla till mid-April and even onApril 17 this year it was a mere 20,100 cusecs at the formerand 26,300 cusecs at the latter dam. The low flow continuedtill past the first week of May 2000. The observed low flowhas been attributed to lower rainfall during the precedingfive months. Since a similar situation was faced in 1994 and1997, it is quite likely that the process of degradation ofthe ecosystem of glaciers was not critically examined althoughit had set in 1994 and has worsened in the mean time.

Much larger area in the north and south is reportedly beingaffected by heat wave and the heat zone is no longer limitedto Balochistan, Sindh, Rajasthan and Central India but extendsto Northern Areas of Pakistan and to Iran. The focus of theheat zone extends along the Nokundi-Sibbi-Jacobabad axis toMianwali. The departure from normal, as observed may not beunusual but is so persistent in recurrence as to suggest thateither the established monsoon pattern is not being followedor modification of some sort, may be due to global warming asmanifested by the intensity of heat wave, has taken place.

During the few years prior to 1997, Sindh was receiving itsfirst share of rains much earlier than Punjab and themountainous north.  In 1992, the year that was extraordinarilycold and wet, snowfall continued beyond the winter months,which delayed the snowmelt to end of March. Intensive snowmelting started the moment the solar heat became dominant overthe mountains. The channels and rivulets were running full inearly July and were causing floods in the Northern Areas muchbefore the onset of monsoon. Extraordinarily high rainfallsand floods followed from early July.

The system of push from the Bay of Bengal and pull fromCentral India onwards to the west and northwest has beenerratic in following its past pattern, again since the lastfive years. The bifurcation of the monsoon system from CentralIndia at Jhansi into two branches, one going west to Sindh and

the other going northwest to the Northern Areas of Pakistan,is not being observed.

This provides support to the earlier statement that inproceeding towards the west, the system either loses thedriving force to push rain clouds to the west or the pull ofthe low pressure zone over Sindh and Balochistan diffuses andoffers no attraction. The failure of the monsoon has thus beenoccurring with regularity in the western segment of the cyclewhile heavy rains in its eastern segment are each timeaccompanied by devastating floods. Bangladesh was witness tothe worst floods in history in 1998 and West Bengal inSeptember 2000.

Precipitations and river flow have become erratic since theearly 1990s. 1992 was erratic in being too wet and 1993 inbeing dry. What followed thereafter was lower or delayedprecipitation over the western segment of the monsoon cycle.The impact of the change became apparent immediately after thewet year of 1997 when the monsoon system failed to reachPakistan as suggested by the below normal rainfall from Julyto August 20 of the year 1998. The rainfall thereafter washeavy and floods played havoc. There was below normal rainfallin 1999 while that received from the northwesterly system inthe northern areas were slightly above normal in July 2000,but well below normal during August and very little inSeptember.

Monsoons in 2010: As of March 15, 2010 all the rivers wereflowing at around 20 per cent less than last year’s levels thesame day. The Indus, which was flowing at 24,300 cusecs onMarch 15, 2009 had a flow of 21,300 cusecs in 2010; Jhelum atMangla flowed 20,800 cusecs against 25,300 cusecs on the sameday last year, while the Chenab was flowing at 9,200 cusecsagainst 9,700 cusecs last year. Only Kabul River registeredsome improvement at 13,800 cusecs from 12,200 cusecs lastyear. Mangla Lake had hit the dead level of 1,040 feet lastweek, seriously affecting hydel power generation. With thereduced river flow, agriculture suffered a shortage of 32 percent irrigation water during the first half of March against aprojected deficit of 30 per cent.

There was nevertheless forecast of 10% more rain than inregular monsoon seasons. According to NASA satellite data,several of the July 2010 rain storms were twice as large asthe largest rain storm in 2009. The Pakistan MeteorologicalDepartment reported that in one 24-hour period in Peshawar,274 mm (10.7 inches) of rain fell, compared to a maximum of187 mm (7.36 inches) for any period in 2009.

Power generation is the other sector which has been hit by lowriver flow. On March 15, 2010, the hydel power generation wasreported at 3,469MW against 5,375MW on the day last year.Tarbela contributed 1,488MW, Ghazi Brotha 1,160MW, Mangla496MW, Warsak 143MW and Chashma 128MW.

Analysis and Explanations: Pakistan, incidentally is not isolatedin the crisis of its water budget. Scarcity of water islooming large all over the arid regions of the earth. Thecrisis in the monsoon region is in the interruptions of thecycles of wetness and dryness and that has become prominentduring the last five years. It is this crisis that is seekinganswers on whether it is due to changes in climate and if so,whether it is of permanent nature, or it is due to theecosystem misbalance.

Observations on the pattern of flow due to snowmelt, intensityof heat wave, precipitation data and occurrence and severityof floods in the region do suggest that some alteration hasoccurred in the system, in general and at the tail end of themonsoon cycle in particular. The monsoon system has, in notfollowing its previous pattern, resulted in water scarcity andserious drought conditions over extensive areas.

The changes just mentioned have been analyzed in various ways.Shnitnikov analysis of the variation in ground and surfacewater, glaciation and changes in plant communities shows theexistence of a general law of terrestrial humidity cycle,which repeats every 1800 to 2000 years. The results areconfirmed by the cycles of snow cover and glaciation. Thepresent erratic variations attributed to climate change mayvery well be following the terrestrial cycle by which theearth may be passing through a transitory period from highlyhumid to a dry phase.

The droughts are becoming too frequent because continents arelosing their share of land while oceans are gaining in volumeof water and expanding in area. The above conclusions arebased on the observations over the last century, which showthat 430 cubic km of water are being lost annually from theland and the level of seawater is rising at a rate of 1.2 mmannually. Periods of greater and lower humidity affect vast areas of theearth but at no time do they involve the whole of the earth.The period of high humidity in one part is accompanied byreduced humidity elsewhere.

The period of run-off in the drainage basins of the majorrivers and the boundary of such areas is fairly constant andseems to follow a cycle extending over a certain number ofyears. For example, between 1926 and 1930 the run-off wasabundant in Europe and North America, but it was reduced inthe rest of the Northern Hemisphere. For the 1931 to 1940period there was reversal; the area excluding Europe and NorthAmerica received higher run-off. The peak and low dischargesin the run-off occur at different times in the different welldefined but large zones of the earth.

The change in the monsoon pattern had been felt in the early1990s but the onset of a dry cycle became apparent in 1998when the below normal rainfall from July to August 20 wasfollowed by heavy rainfall and floods in the last ten days ofthe month. The abnormal rains and the prediction of abovenormal rains in Pakistan for the 1998 monsoon season wasreviewed and it was observed that the opposite of the El Ninoeffect, the La Nina factor had not been taken intoconsideration by the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

The El Nino factor, which causes warming of the waters wasactive from May 1997 to May 1998 and had, because of its highactivity on the Eastern Pacific viz. the coast of Ecuador andPeru, caused record heavy rainfall in 1997 in Pakistan. Afterthe cessation of its activity, the cooling of the ocean anddry weather due to the La Nina factor is routinely followed.It became active on Eastern Pacific in May 1998 and is

responsible for the dry weather that is being witnessed inPakistan from that time onwards.

Climate, ocean current, wind and vegetation being criticalcomponents of the global system, disturbance in one part ofthe sequence or succession of events inevitably impacts theother part and quite frequently at unexpected places, the ElNino effect being the result of such a disturbance. Theunusually high frequency of the inception of El Nino weathereffect during the past few years has possibly been triggeredby the rise in ocean water temperatures in the easternPacific, and it is accompanied by drought in Australia,western India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran and Africa and forflooding in South America, eastern India and Bangladesh.

The La Nina factor produces the rain generating cycloniccirculations in the Bay of Bengal. The development of lowpressure over the Bay of Bengal in mid-1998 was too weak andtoo localized to respond to the low pressure zone in the westor to cause rains in Pakistan. Cooling effect of La Ninafactor dampened the warming effect of the high temperaturesthat sizzled many parts of Central Pakistan. La Nina effectrelated to cyclonic circulations is caused by warm seasurface, and deep portion layer, low-level rotation and mid-level moisture in the air. It surfaced up in May 1998 and notin March 1998 when the above normal rains had been forecast.The below normal rainfall in 1999 was also attributed to theLa Nina effect.

It appears that rains received from the northwesterly system in the northern areas in July, well below normal during Augustand September 2000 and very little rainfall in the southern region during the entire period are again to be attributed to the La Nina effect. The low pressure over the Bay of Bengal was again too weak to allow it to travel past West Bengal and as such there was heavy rainfall, the like of which was witnessed 22 years back. The precipitation took away the critical amount of moisture that can cause rains in the regionover which the system was to travel. When it ultimately reached Central India and Pakistan, much of the moisture had been diffused into the aridity prevailing there and there was very little rain capacity left in it.

The above analysis only partly explains as to why the monsoonsystem is not following its past pattern for the past fiveyears at the western end of the cycle, although it doesoperate as usual and brings plenty of rainfall in Bangladesh,Nepal and the eastern and northern provinces of India. It alsodoes not explain why the above normal rains in July werefollowed by well below normal during August and very little inSeptember. In Nepal also the system started receding in mid-August after usual heavy rains at start of the season.

On the basis of above observations it is suggested thatPakistan is faced with crisis of inadequate snowmelt, belownormal rainfall all over and drought conditions prevailing insouthern region for the past five years. Snowmelt, whichbrings the first flood-flow in Indus and Jhelum has not beenadequate during the last few years as well as in 1994 and1997. This may suggest an ecosystem misbalance in glacierarea of concern to the Indus system. It could, if it is real,be related to impact of global warming, which is beingincreasingly reported during recent years to be responsiblefor shrinkage of glaciers, recession of the snow cover on thecoastline of Greenland, and for the finding that the ice atthe North Pole was in molten condition in June this year.

However, when a giant iceberg of the size of Jamaica, close tobeing record size with a length of 295 km and width of 37 km,was broken free from Antarctic’s Ross Ice Shelf, in March thisyear, no alarm bell rang. It was considered a normalphenomenon since the ice sheet has to maintain a balance, andmay be it is related to the cycles of wetness and drynessnoted in Shnitnikov analysis.

The unusually high frequency of the damaging El Nino weatherpatterns in recent years, triggered by the rise in ocean watertemperatures in the eastern Pacific, is responsible for thedrought in Australia, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran andAfrica and for the flooding in South America. The abnormalevents that may have led to the persistence of La Nina factorand recurrence of drought are taking place at the same timewhen Pakistan is facing the low flow in its rivers.

The Shnitnikov analysis does not adequately explain thesevisible disturbances in the succession of events regulatingthe water balance in Pakistan, but the incidence of the LaNina event provides a suitable analysis. Since many such oddsare being related to climate change, it is but natural to bealarmed and attribute them to global warming.

Cycles of dryness and wetness have been well recorded forKarachi and they are adequately explained by Shnitnikovanalysis. Long dry spells are not common in Karachi; themaximum period ranges from 7 to 9 months over a period of atthe most one year. However, the drying up of Hub dam andreduced water flow in the Indus are indications that perhapsthe persistent domination of La Nina factor has induced aclimate change that has disrupted the cyclic process.  

The cycle of dry spells repeats in 47 to 53 years, the firstone to be noted was from October 1857 to June 1858, the secondfrom April to December 1904. This cycle repeated as expectedin 1951 when there was low rainfall. The last ones thatoccurred were in 1987 followed by that in 1993 and now in 1999and 2000.

The gap between heavy rain years varies from 4 to 11 yearswith the longest one extending over 50 years. Records areavailable to suggest that there is the periodicity of 50 yearse.g. 1863 (347 mm), 1913 (341 mm), and 1961 (610 mm); for 1866(343 mm), 1916  (555 mm), and 1967 (713 mm); 1878 (605 mm),1926 (509), and 1977 (207), and for 1894 (577 mm), 1944 (745mm), and 1994 (450 mm). S.N.  Naqvi had, in his analysis ofthe meteorological data, suggested the existence of a shortcycle of 3 to 5 years, a medium cycle of 10 to 13 years, aBruckner's cycle of 18  to  23 years and a long cycle of 50years.

The data indicate large fluctuations from year to year butthere is genuine orderliness among them over a decade andstill better correlations over a 30 year period. The availablerecords apparently suggest that the natural process ofcompensating the deficit of one year with excess in thefollowing year adequately maintains the water balance in

Karachi. The present crisis of shortage of water couldtherefore be considered as part of the natural system.

The cycle of precipitation, if the data have any meaning,suggests that since the deficiencies of the past years arecompensated, the two years following 1995 and 1996 should havebeen deficit years and that the next dry spell should haveoccurred in 1999. Incidentally this happens to be the case.Accordingly 2002 should be a very rainy year. The criticalsituation, which has precipitated in the form of drought, thusappears to be part of the natural repetitive cycles.

The compensation of the deficiency of the past year may very well be due to corrective measures adopted to reverse the damages done to the ecosystem. This might suggest that the damages done to the ecosystem are not of irreversible nature and if suitably countered, the system could be well managed. This gives hope that the drought is not due to irreversible damage to the ecosystem and is not the main factor in the observed climate change.

Salinization of SoilThe Indus plain downstream of Kashmore, where the  Riverenters the Province of Sindh, is almost flat with a slope ofonly 20  cm to a kilometre. The soil constituents are suchthat do not allow adequate surface drainage.  The down thevalley movement of groundwater is, on the other hand, slow andruns into  impediment by  built  up infrastructure like roads,railways  and  bridges, constructed across the direction ofits flow. Groundwater movement is thus quite inadequate ineffecting sub-surface drainage. The irrigation network inSindh is itself not sustainable  since it  lacks a suitabledrainage system, and the seepage from  canals,  which  is asbad as 30% of the total flow, remains  in  the systemaffecting the root zone and rise in  salt  concentration. Thelack of a drainage system is consequently solely responsiblefor the process of addition of 0.520 billion tons of saltsduring the  last  50  years, which has lowered the yield  ofcrops  and degraded the environment in the irrigated areas ofthe province.

It is estimated that each acre foot (AF) of the canal waterwith an  average salinity of 100 to 120 ppm adds 0.16 to 0.18ton  of salts  to every acre of irrigated land or 7 to 8 MT ofsalts  to the corresponding area in Sindh. It would bepertinent to  emphasize here that the critical situation withregard to salinization of the soil and availability of freshwater, has been arrived  as a  result  of bad management ofthe system rather than due  to  a fault in the system per se.The continuously expanding irrigation network without abatingthe seepages, and the conspicuous absence of  the  drainagesystem are glaring examples of  bad  management which isresponsible for the ecological disaster. This has  been goingon since the introduction of the canal command system.  TheIndus  basin  has thus acted as a Salt Sink whose area  andsalt content  is  increasing  every year. The worst  affectedis  the southern  Indus plain where, for reasons stated above,and  also the underlying clayey and impervious materials,the surface and sub-surface movement of water is quiteinadequate.

The huge accumulation of 520 MT of salts in the irrigated areaof Sindh, may not have occurred if drainage was an integralpart  of the irrigation system right from the start. Thedisaster that was lying ahead was known through historicalevents and also  through the  rise in the groundwater level inthe irrigated  areas,  particularly the Doabs. No timelyaction, viz. adopting  appropriate technologies  to deal withthe catastrophic situation, was  taken to provide an effectivedrainage system. It was from 1960 onwards that  the SalinityControl and Reclamation Projects  SCARPs  were launched  and19.79 MA out of the 41.16 MA of gross command  area wascovered by the completed or on-going projects by 1992.

The SCARPs,  however, supplemented the surface drains  withthe vertical  drainage  system and tubewells were  installedby  the hundreds  and 390,000 of them had been installed by1992.  An  in depth  study on the characteristics of our soilwould have  shown that  the  system  required a mix of  thetechnologies,  besides adopting  water conservation methods toattain the objectives  of sustainable  agriculture. Theintroduction of just the  tubewells has not respondedpositively to the needs of drainage of soil.

The total dissolved solids content, which reflects on thesalinity of the water of rivers and canals, ranges between 50and 350 ppm, depending on the distance from the point therivers enter Pakistan. It is minimum, almost 50 to 75 ppm inGilgit, medium in the Punjab ranging from 100 to 200 ppm andhigh in Sindh ranging from 250 to 350 ppm. The increase insalinity is attributed to the shift in the equilibrium, fromthe inflow of the fresh water, towards the outflow of theseepage in the subsoil, when the pressure of the latterincreases during the low flow periods.

Higher salinity is not the only matter of concern to theagriculturists and sustainable development planners; what isworse is the mixing in of industrial effluents that are toxic.As the rivers and link canals travel southward, they receivethe discharges of saline water from (1) the outflow of theseepage from the subsoil during the reduction in river volume,(2) from the drainage canals meant for carrying the seepagesand (3) from the industrial discharges of wastewater into thenearest channel. For example the industries along theSheikhupura Road discharge their wastewater into thedepression immediately outside the factory from where it flowsalong the road into seepage drains or natural streams. Themain outlet for these drains is the Mangoki drain whichterminates into the GB Link Canal.

Salt Sink: Assuming the medium salinity of 100 to 120 ppm to bethe average of the canal water, it could be assumed that eachacre foot (AF) of water adds 0.16 to 0.18 ton of salts to eachacre of irrigated land. This suggests that the 104 MAF ofirrigation water which is diverted into the canals, has beenadding 16 to 18 million tons (MT) of salts each year eversincethe introduction of the canal command irrigation system. TheIndus basin has thus been acting as a Salt Sink whose area andconcentration is increasing every year. The soil which can notbe drained easily or is underlain with impervious or clayeymaterial is the worst sufferer and the area south of Multanfalls in this category. The reuse of groundwater pumped by390,000 tubewells, yielding some 38 MAF groundwater is addingto the problem by recycling salts into the Sink. The salt

balance of the entire irrigation command has thus been grosslydisturbed.

Quantification of Salinity Hazards: The status of the Salt Sink hasbeen analyzed by the Drainage Sector Environmental Assessment:National Drainage Programme, which was released in 1993 by theWater and Power Development Authority. According to theanalysis presented in this assessment the contribution ofsalts to the salt sink are 17 million tons (MT), from theIndus river itself, 3 MT from the Kabul, and 13 MT from thewestern tributaries, making a total of 33 MT of saltcontributed each year. 24 MT out of the total inflow of saltsremains within the basin, with 13.6 MT in the Punjab Doabs and10.4 MT in the Sindh system. The gross addition to the SaltSinks has been a shocking 1.2 billion tons, 680 MT in Punjaband 520 MT in Sindh during the last 50 years.

The Indus-Kabul combined flow contributes 2.8 MT of salts tothe Doabs and 0.7 MT to the Right bank in the DG Khan system.The river flow before Panjnad has a salt concentration of 16.5MT. The Punjab Doabs together receive an inflow of 53.5 MAFand 15.8 MT of salts out of which 11.1 MT remains in theDoabs, 2.2 MT is drained into evaporation ponds located nearRahim Yar Khan, while the remaining 2.5 MT passes on throughPanjnad into Sindh. Thus the total outflow of salts into theIndus below Panjnad is 19 MT.

Sindh Left and Right Bank Outfall Drainage RBOD and LBOD,canal catchment areas receive 45.5 MAF and almost 11 MT ofsalts, 3.2 MT by the former and 7.8 by the latter. Out of the19 MT salts flowing into Sindh, 0.7 MT is received by theGuddu canal system, 4.3 MT by the Sukkur system and 2.8 MT bythe Kotri system. RBOD retains 2.6 MT and passes on 0.6 MTupstream of Kotri. 5.0 MT out of the 7.8 MT received by theGuddu-Sukkur-Kotri commands, is proposed to flow into the LBODrainage system and the remaining 2.8 MT left to accumulatein the basin. However, the entire 7.8 MT salt has beenaccumulating in the basin. The Indus downstream Kotri is leftwith 8.6 MT salts which flow into the Sea.

Sustainable Irrigation: The continuously expanding irrigationnetwork and the conspicuous absence of the drainage system

had, according to the Sixth Five Year Plan document, raisedthe water table to within 5 ft. for 12 MA in October and 5 MAin June. The rise of watertable to less than 5 ft. is thedisaster level which has continued since 1977-78 to thepresent; it now constitutes 24 to 28% of the cultivable land.In spite of the above convincing data on the natural calamity,unequal distribution of irrigation water and its excessive usein other areas, continues. The loss of land due towaterlogging and salinity, as a result of the hugeaccumulation of 1.2 billion tons of salts, may not haveoccurred if drainage was an integral part of sustainableirrigation.

The cropped area in an average year often exceeds the limit ofexisting water availability which causes under-irrigation andthe oozing of salts to the soil surface. Salinity profile inthe root zone in the fields located in the middle reaches andtail ends of the watercourse commands is sufficiently high toreduce the yield of crops. Such situations are disastroussince the salts keep accumulating in the root zone of the soiland create salinity stresses that invariably reduce cropyields.

Salinity stresses can be reduced by the downward movement ofsalts and by leaching with water. The necessary and sufficientcondition for leaching is that the rain or irrigation watermust be as much in quantity as to be above board theevapotranspiration needs. Only this quantity would pass beyondthe root zone and transport the salts into the deep downstrata. It is therefore important that the irrigated area getsa regular rainfall of over 100 mm every year.

The Indus plain in the Punjab is underlain by an extensivefresh groundwater aquifer whose transmissivity is very high.This allows the vertical drainage by means of tubewells tolower the water table. The water from the tubewells can thusbe used directly for leaching the salts. This may, however,not continue for long since the country is not receivingsufficient rains for the last five years and the groundwateris not getting recharged.

Degradation of Soil: Degraded soil as a result of waterloggingand salinity, is a predominant feature of the land lying between Sukkur and Kotri where the seepage losses are estimated to be the maximum. This is most likely due to alterations in the structure of the soil resulting from its interaction with the salts in an aqueous environment, by hydrosalinization. Field observations from the Lower Chenab Canal do indicate that the structural decline of the soil has been due to irrigation with sodic waters.

The above problem is not that of simple salinity but of sodicity. Such soil has also been found to be difficult in getting reclaimed by leaching. This must be the case since thehigh alkalinity and bicarbonate values of the irrigation watercan cause calcium and micronutrient deficiency. It has furtherbeen observed that the sodic soils are not only poorly permeable but are also hard in tillage. This may be attributed to loss of structure as a result of migration of clay due to hydrosalinization induced by sodic waters. Clay being colloidal in nature would yield to the high ionic potential of the salts and would migrate from the initial environment.

Soil deterioration has been particularly noted in the tail ends of the distributary commands, in areas of persistent deficiency of irrigation water or where water deficient environment follows water excess. The degradation process can be reversed if hydrosalinization has not proceeded far enough to alter the soil structure. The shortfall of at least 70 to 80% in the yield of crops from the fields compared with experimental stations suggests that sustainable irrigation canreverse the process of deterioration. Rice will then be cropped to match soil quality, and not just because plenty of water is available. However, if rice has to be grown to meet the demands of cropping intensity, sustainability of the irrigation system would suggest due provision for surface andsub-surface drainage.

Need for Sustainable Irrigation Practices: The criticality of the situation with regard to the water balance vis a vis the complex mix of geo-political considerations indicates an urgent need to go in for sustainable irrigation practices. The

first step that should be taken in this connection would be towards restoring the salt balance. The agricultural policies need to adopt and implement a plan whereby crop allotment is duly practiced. This would allow water demanding crops to be grown only at places where water availability is assured. The allotment will have to remain in force till such time that thewater balance, and hence salt balance, is normalized and the degraded land is regenerated.

In view of the growing population, urbanization and industrialization, the situation is not likely to improve. Nevertheless, excessive mining of groundwater goes on. Despitea lowering water table, the annual growth rate of electric tube wells has been indicated to 6.7% and for diesel tubewellsto about 7.4%. In addition, increasing pollution and sea waterintrusion threaten the country's water resources. About 36% ofthe groundwater is classified as highly saline.

In urban areas, most water is supplied from groundwater exceptfor the cities of Karachi, Hyderabad and a part of Islamabad, where mainly surface water is used. In most rural areas, groundwater is used. In rural areas with saline groundwater, irrigation canals serve as the main source of domestic water.

Sustainable Water Resource ManagementThe situation analysis presented above shows that theunsustainability in water resource management is the result oflack of conservation, storage, and over exploitation ofavailable water resources. The mounting population pressureenhanced the food requirements manifold. Resultantly, thepresent cropping intensity of 115 percent exerted a lot ofstress over irrigation system, which was designed on 70 to 80percent of cropping intensity. In addition to the populationgrowth, the industrialization and urbanization also expandedthe demand for water.

It has been reported that about 90 percent of the water fromsurface withdrawals and groundwater exploitation is used foragriculture, and remaining 10 percent for industry anddomestic purposes. In view of the increasingly intense demandfor water amongst various competitions, agriculture sector isstated to lose lot of water in storage, conveyance and

application. The magnitude of loss in terms of quality andquantity of water in industry and domestic use is itselfcolossal. Apparently, the water is wasted mercilessly in allthree sectors, which is a colossal national loss particularlyin view of the rapidly depleting fresh water resources.Additionally the fresh water flow into the Arabian Sea issubstantially curtailed to an average 9.4 MAF during thefloods.

The water losses in agriculture sector have been documented bythe Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) inits various research studies which suggest that out of 106Million Acre Feet (MAF), only 41 MAF reaches to the crop forits consumptive use and remaining 65 is lost in transit andfield application, 47 MAF have been shown as groundwaterrecharge, out of which 44 MAF is being pumped through morethan 550,000 Public & Private tubewells installed in thecountry.

In order to combat the water crisis, a Resource ConservationStrategy based on following should be implemented.

* Develop and implement National Resource Conservation Planand give proper coverage through mass media (Radio, TV, Press,pamphlets etc.) The president, chief executive of Pakistan andgovernors should appeal to the nation for water conservationfrom every water user in the country. * Launch water literacy campaign to create awareness amongstthe various water utility competitors, especially the farmingcommunity, house holds and industrial users regarding thejudicious and efficient use of rapidly depleting waterresources. * Initiate crash programme for desilting, de-vegetation andheavy cleaning of watercourses where we are loosing 30 percentwater in transit during coming canal closure and make it as apart of desilting campaign for distributaries and minorsduring January 2001 under direct supervision of districtAdministration and Armed Forces. * Launch groundwater management programme to promoteconjunctive use of surface and groundwater and treatment ofsaline/saline sodic soils & waters through E.M technology,

gypsum application and use of innovative technology ofsulphurous acid generator. * Develop and implement a crop need based schedule for watersupplies through canal rotation in the perennial and non-perennial canal systems. * Promote use of resource conservation technologies comprisingof LASFR land levelling, zero tillage/bed planting for wheat,furrow bed irrigation for cotton etc. * Educate the farming community regarding efficient use ofwater through adoption of improved irrigation methods i.e.borders, furrows, sprinkler and drip/trickle irrigationsystems.

Impact on economy / society  It is estimated that Pakistan loses potential revenues of around Rs 280 billion (US $2.8 billion) since it loses 40 MAF of water through seepages of water underground; it loses another Rs 280 billion since it has no capacity to control floods or divert the flood water for good use.