The Myth of the Missing White Voters:

Virginia Is For Lovers, Not Missing White Voters

February 3, 2014

By Steven M. Kamp1

Did Mitt Romney lose because white voters stayed home?

Not in Virginia, even though the rightwing psepho-

commentariat thinks so now that Real Clear Politics Senior

Elections Analyst Sean Trende has created The Missing White

Voter Theory2. The Theory has spawned a debate that even

became a cover story in The Week.3 Trouble is, the Theory is

1 Sacramento attorney Steven M. Kamp, a graduate of Yale Law School (1981) and the University of California at Los Angeles (1978), and a veteran of Democratic campaigns in multiple states back to 1972, is nearing completion of The New Democratic Majority, a book analyzing American voting patterns between 1788 and 2012 for President, Congress, Governors, state downballot offices, state legislatures and ballot propositions. Mr. Kamp can be reached at steve.kamp@comcast.net

Mr. Kamp has written the California election law manual for the California Democratic Party since 1988 and similar manuals for Nevada and Kentucky in 2008-2012.

The author thanks Jack Young, Patrick Reddy, Scott Rafferty, Harold Kwalwasser, and James Shoch for their editorial assistance.

Maps and election return data used with permission of David Leip and theU.S. Election Atlas website, "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections"http://uselectionatlas.org

2 Mr. Trende was sent an essentially identical version of this article by read-receipt electronic mail message on October 1, 2013, but as of December 6, 2013, has not responded. 3 July 26, 2013, page 16, “Talking Points -- Immigration: Can the GOP win as the White Party?”, and front cover.

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not based on actual registered voters and actual voting, but

rather on a Census estimate that has both overestimated and

underestimated actual registration and voting, both

nationally and in both Ohio and Virginia, two 2004-2012

swing states essential to Republican White House hopes in

2016 and 2020. This author has already explained why the

Missing White Voter Theory will not flip the static-

population state of Ohio into the Republican column.4 This

article will now explain why the Missing White Voter Theory

will not flip the Dynamic Dominion5 of Virginia, no matter

how large a percentage gain the Republicans achieve in the

21 Coal Country jurisdictions of southwestern Virginia. One

reason: the 55 percent turnout rate used by Sean Trende for

registered nonvoters adds only 217,625 new actual voters in

Rural Virginia -- the 2016 Republican nominee would need a

100 percent turnout netting 68 percent of them to trump the

Obama 2012 margin of 149,298, by all of 1,062 raw votes, and

would fall short of the 2008 Obama margin of 234,527 even if

the Republican won 100 percent.

Another reason: commonwealth-wide, between 2004 and

2012 the Democratic Presidential raw vote number in Virginia

4 “The Myth of the Missing White Voters: In Ohio, Not Registered and Not Voting –While Columbus Rocks for the Democrats.”

5 Frank Atkinson, The Dynamic Dominion (George Mason University Press, Fairfax, Virginia, 1992), an excellent analysis of Virginia politics between 1945 and 1990, explaining how the once-dominant rural DemocraticHarry Byrd Machine crumbled under the simultaneous thrusts from suburbanRepublicans and liberal Democrats.

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increased by more than five times the Republican increase,

517,078 for the Democrats versus 105,563 for the

Republicans. As a result, the margin flipped from Bush

262,217 to candidate Obama 234,527 to President Obama

149,298, an eight-year Democratic margin shift of 411,515

that exceeds any “missing white voter” number from Rural

Virginia. If these trends hold up in 2016 and 2020,

Democrats will hold the 13 electoral votes from Virginia and

add them to the 246 from the 2004 John Kerry states6 plus 6

from Iowa and 5 from New Mexico (two states that between

1992 and 2012 went Republican only in 2004, and only

barely), giving Democrats the winning 270 once the polls

close at 1900 hours Eastern Standard Time in the

commonwealth – regardless of the outcome in Florida, Ohio,

Colorado or Nevada. Thus, because The Missing White Voter

Theory does not work in Virginia, it does not matter in 2016

or 2020 unless it flips a Blue Wall state such as

Pennsylvania.7

6

? New Hampshire (4), the other ten Eastern states and D.C. (108), Michigan (16), Illinois (20), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), and the four non-Alaska Pacific states (78).

7 In the next articles in this “Electoral College Junket” series, the author will analyze Pennsylvania, followed by New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Florida, then North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri and Montana.

3

The Missing White Voter: It Started With Non-Final Ohio Returns That Did

Not Include Provisional Ballots

Two days after Election Night, Real Clear Politics Senior

Elections Analyst Sean Trende, extrapolating from non-final

Ohio numbers8, opined that Romney lost the national popular

vote because (nationwide) 6.5 million Caucasian Republican

eligible voters “stayed home,” including allegedly enough

rural 2004 or 2008 Republican voters to give Ohio to Obama.9

The Trende theory began in Ohio, and likely ends in

Virginia. Caucasian turnout may have been down, but not in

the magnitude Trende claims – and not by enough to alter the

Virginia result, and with Virginia went any Republican hopes

for the Electoral College. The “Missing White Voter” route

has become the proverbial yellow- or red-bricked road for

the rightwing commentariat and blogosphere. However, The

Missing White Voter Theory is more of a long dead end road

rather than a through street to victory for the Republicans,

because:

8 That did not include the 173,765 ultimately counted provisional ballots. Under Ohio law, absentees are counted first, followed by the machine ballots, but the counting of the provisionals does not begin until ten days after Election Day.

9 Sean Trende, Real Clear Politics, November 8, 2012, “The Case of the Missing White Voters.”

4

It is not based on actual registered voters or actual

voting, but on a post-election Census survey that in

2004, 2008 and 2012, did not come close to matching the

actual registered or voting population, nationally or

in the swing states of Ohio or Virginia.

In Virginia – a state Republicans must win in order to

regain the White House -- even using the Trende

linchpin Census survey estimates of the unregistered

and registered nonvoters, Republican cannot win except

with 100 percent turnout and a Republican percentage of

85 percent throughout the commonwealth.

In the 2004, 2008 and 2012 Presidential year elections,

between 1.2 and 1.5 million registered Virginia voters

stayed home, and it is highly unlikely that Caucasian

solidarity appeals will stimulate a sufficiently large

Republican turnout from this constituency that has

regularly registered and failed to vote.

The number of actual registered 2012 nonvoters in the 76

Rural Virginia jurisdictions is 395,683, and if

Republicans rely exclusively on this constituency,

Republicans can flip Virginia only if 100 percent turn

out and vote 68 or 80 percent Republican.

Applying the 55 percent nonvoter turnout rate used by

Trende to the 395,683 registered 2012 nonvoters in the

76 Rural Virginia jurisdictions results in a number

(217,625) that facially underperforms the Obama 2008

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margin of 234,527, and overperforms the Obama 2012

margin of 149,298 only at a Republican percentage of 85

percent.

Of the 395,683 registered 2012 nonvoters in the 76

Rural Virginia jurisdictions, 354,458 did not vote in

the 2004 Bush election, meaning that between 2004 and 2012,

the registered nonvoter population in Rural Virginia

increased by only 41,225, less than one third of the

2012 Obama margin. In other words, 89.58 percent of the “missing”

registered nonvoters in 2012 were missing in 2004 as well.

Between 2004 and 2012, the number of registered

nonvoters in the entire commonwealth of Virginia rose

by only 237,163, which is only 2,636 above the Obama

2008 margin and trumps the 2012 margin only at 100

percent turnout that breaks 81 percent Republican. At

the 55 percent turnout rate used by Trende, only

130,439 new voters are turned out, a number that falls

short of both Obama Virginia margins.

If the reach of The Theory is expanded to the

unregistered population, the Census estimates show that

the commonwealth-wide gap between the 2012 Census-

estimated citizen-eligible population and the actual

2012 total registration is only 216,000, which cannot

defeat the 2008 Obama margin and defeats 2012 only at

100 percent turnout that breaks 85 percent Republican.

At the 55 percent turnout rate used by Trende, only

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118,800 new voters are turned out, which falls short of

both the 2012 and 2008 Obama margins. In addition,

they have to be registered first, if they even exist

The total number of actual net lost Republican votes

between 2004 and 2012 in the 76 Rural Virginia

jurisdictions is 12,372, less than ten percent of the

2012 Obama margin of 149,298. As for the Missing White

Voters, the registered nonvoter increase in the

Southside between 2004 and 2012 was all of 176 (this is

not a misprint), 27,271 in the Shenandoah Valley, 2,014

in the Eastern Rural counties, 8,298 in Appomattox, and

3,466 in Coal Country -- adding these 41,225 simply

gives the virtual Republican 2016 ticket 53,597

“missing voters” from Rural Virginia, which leaves the

Obama 2012 margin ahead by 95,701.

Between 2004 and 2012 in Rural Virginia, Democrats

actually gained more net votes than the Republicans --

49,984 to 36,365.

The number of registered nonvoters in the 58

Metropolitan Virginia jurisdictions is much larger

(1,134,334) and in these dynamic and diverse population

areas (the University of Virginia, Northern Virginia,

Greater Richmond, and Hampton Roads), Democrats between

2004 and 2012 gained 465,334 votes, whereas Republicans

gained only a net 31,940; not surprisingly, only six of

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58 jurisdictions have a Romney percentage of 60 percent

or higher.

Before diving deep into actual Virginia registration

and voting statistics, let’s discuss The Missing White Voter

Theory. The Missing White Voter Theory has been grasped by

Republicans to avoid facing the implications of what

actually happened in 2008 and 2012: back-to-back popular

vote and Electoral College majorities by a Democrat from a

national total vote that was 6.921 million larger than the

total vote in the 2004 reelection of President Bush the

Younger, and that flipped a net seven states and 115

electoral votes between 2004 and 2012. Moreover, the

Democratic President was reelected amid the worst Democratic

incumbent economic environment since Jimmy Carter in 1980,

the outgoing Woodrow Wilson administration in 1920, and the

second Grover Cleveland administration in 1896, with numbers

that caused two economic determinist modelers to predict

only 46 or 49 percent for Obama10, an economic determinist

electoral vote modeler to predict Romney with 33011, Almanac

10 The Professor Ray C. Fair Model in Fair, Predicting Presidential Elections (Stanford University Press, 2002), and available for 2004-2008-2012 at www.fairmodel.yale.edu, and the Professor Douglas Hibbs Bread and Peace Model, available at www.douglas-hibbs.com 11 Two University of Colorado professors who shall remain nameless, and who looked only at state-level economic data and ignored electoral history and everything else. The predicted Romney 330 included Minnesota.

8

of American Politics founder Michael Barone to intone Romney 315

because of “fundamentals” -- and don’t forget Peggy Noonan

and her vibrating Northwest D.C. yard signs. Horror of

horrors, 2008 may have been a realigning election, and 2012

a confirming election . . . for the Democrats.

President Obama’s reelection triggered a rampage of

rage on the Republican right, but the one rational response

came from Almanac of American Politics 2014 co-author Sean Trende,

whose review of non-final Ohio returns two days after the

election started him on the road to a 2013 conclusion that

6.5 million eligible Caucasian voters skipped the election.

The Missing White Voter Theory is based on the contrast

between Census estimates of eligible Non-Hispanic White

registration and turnout for 2008 and 2012 and the Census

estimate of the actual 2012 vote – based on the Census estimates

and using a 55 percent turnout rate for nonvoting eligibles.

Sean Trende did not distinguish between unregistered and

registered nonvoters; instead, he conflated and continues to

conflate the two categories.12 12 In contrast, The Emerging Republican Majority author Kevin Phillips in 1972 debunked the McGovern “youth vote” theory with a three-step sequential analysis of registration, turnout and percentage breakdown:

“Some 70 to 80 percent of the 18-24 year-olds will register. Of these, 70 to 80 per cent will actually vote. Thus, 49 per cent to 64 percent of those eligible will actually make it to the polls. Assume 60 percent (the national average) – or 15 million votes. Of these, McGovern will get 55 to 65 percent (8.25 to 9.75 million) and Richard Nixon will get 35-45 percent (5.25 to 6.75 million). By these calculations, then, the McGovern youth lead will range from 1.5 million to a very improbable 4.5 million” which Phillips predicted (correctly) would be swamped by George

9

. Mr. Trende concluded that 6.5 million eligible

Caucasian voters did not vote in 2012, and Republican

opponents of immigration reform and minority outreach13

seized upon The Theory as justification for doubling down on

the Republican obstructionism displayed in the 2013 Fiscal

Cliff and 2011 Debt Ceiling debacles. The Trende series was

(according to Trende) purposely vague on policy, but

appeared to urge Republican “libertarian populist” appeals

to downscale Caucasian voters turned off by the Bain Capital

persona and reality of Mitt Romney, although in this

author’s opinion, any actual proposals will amount to little

more than faux-populist flapdoodle. The electoral role model

for The Missing White Voter Theory appears to be Minnesota

Governor Tim Pawlenty, who before becoming a financial

services lobbyist was twice elected Governor of Minnesota –

but with percentages of 44.37 and 46.69 in three-way

engagements where the Jesse Ventura Independence Party

achieved 16.18 and 6.43 percentage points -- but where the

Democrats were held to 36.46 and 45.73.

Wallace voters and 1968 Humphrey voters switching to Nixon.

New York Times Magazine, August 6, 1972, “Why Nixon Will Win” (Kevin Phillips), pages 33-34.

13 Note that Sean Trende does not oppose either immigration reform or Republican minority outreach; see his June 21, 2013 and subsequent Real Clear Politics articles.

10

Now for some actual voting numbers. Between 2004 and

2012, the Republican national raw vote fell by a net

1,107,377, from an all-time high of 62,039,572 to the

second-ever Republican total in excess of 60 million –

60,932,235. Between 2008 and 2012, the national Republican

raw number rose by all of 981,912.14

Chart I: The National Popular Vote, 2004-2012

Total Vote Republican Democratic Other

Margin

2004 122,293,468 62,039,572 59,027,115

1,226,781 R 3,012,457

2008 131,463,122 59,950,323 69,499,428

2,013,371 D 9,549,105

2012 129,215,421 60,932,235 65,917,257

2,365,929 D 4,985,022

04-12: + 6,921,953 -- 1,107,337 + 6,890,142

+ 1,139,148 D + 7,997,479

08-12: minus 2,247,701 + 981,912 minus 3,582,171 +

352,558 D min. 4,564,083

14 From 62,039,572 to 59,950,323, per the David Leip U.S. Election Atlaswebsite accessed September 13, 2013. These numbers do not include the additional 6,435 votes from Kings County (Brooklyn), New York discoveredand amended into the New York official totals on August 22, 2013, but not yet posted on the David Leip website.

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In the nine swing states – two that Romney re-flipped

from 2008 and seven that he missed – the Republican raw vote

between 2004 and 2012 rose by a net 352,719. As displayed

in Chart II below, Republicans won back Indiana even with a

vote drop of 58,895 and a Democratic gain of 183,876,

because the Republican base from the Nixon-Bush era was

large enough that it held the Democratic 2008 margin to

28,391, and Democrats in 2012 crashed by 221,152. Same story

in North Carolina: Democratic increase more than double the

Republican increase, but a high enough Bush 2004 number to

hold the 2008 Democratic margin to 14,177. Different story

in New Mexico: Republicans won the state by only 5,988 in

2004, and subsequently lost 41,142 as Democrats gained

44,393. Even worse story in Iowa: Republicans won the state

by only 10,059, then lost 21,340 while Democrats gained

80,646. Horrible story in Ohio: Republicans win the state by

118,601, then lost 198,331 as Democrats gained 86,542. In

Florida, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, Republicans added a

collective 433,352, but Democrats added a whopping 1,626,849

-- four times the Republican addition.

In Virginia, as noted above Democrats added 517,078,

more than five times the 105,563 added by the Republicans.

Chart II: Swing States 2004 – 2012

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State, R 2004 R. 2004-2012 Dem. 2004-2012

2012 Result

N.C. 435,317 + 309,229 + 652,542

Repub. Margin 92,004

Ind. 510,427 Minus 58,895 +

183,876 Repub. 267,656

N.M 5,988 Minus 41,142 + 44,393

Dem.. 79,547

Nev. 21,500 + 44,877 +

134,183 Dem. 67,806

Colo. 99,531 + 83,987 +

321,376 Dem. 137,858

Va. 262,217 + 105,563 +

517,078 Dem. 149,298

Fla. 380,978 + 198,925 + 654,212

Dem. 74,309

Ohio 118,601 Minus 198,331 + 86,542

Dem. 166,272

Iowa 10,059 Minus 21,340 + 80,646

Dem. 91,927

Republicans have to carry at least six of these nine states

to win the White House in 2016 or 2020. The Republicans

must hold Indiana and North Carolina, and flip Florida (29

electoral votes) plus three states with another 35 electoral

votes: Ohio 18, Virginia 13, and either Iowa (6), Colorado

13

(9), Nevada (6), or New Mexico (5). Alternatively,

Republicans must dislodge the equivalent from the Blue Wall

Kerry-Obama states15 that have 246 current electoral votes;

Republicans will talk about flipping New Hampshire (4),

Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), New Jersey

(14) and even Minnesota (10), even though the last year in

which any of these states gave a majority to a non-incumbent

Republican was 1988 New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan

and New Jersey; 1960 Wisconsin, and 1952 Minnesota.

Virginia 2004-2012: A New National Pivot Point, Geographical and Temporal

In addition to Ohio, another testing ground for The

Missing White Voter Theory should be actual registration and

voting data from Virginia for the presidential elections of

2004, 2008 and 2012, with the focus on the trend between

2004 and 2012.

Chart III: Virginia 2004-2012

Total Pres. Vote Republican Democratic Other

Margin

2004 3,198,367 1,716,959 1,454,742

26,666 R 262,217

2008 3,723,260 1,725,005 1,959,532

38,723 D 234,527

15 Ron Brownstein, National Journal, January 17, 2009, “Dems Find Electoral Safety Behind A Wall Of Blue”

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2012 3,854,489 1,822,522 1,971,820

60,147 D 149,298

04-12: + 656,122 + 105,563 + 517,078

+ 33,481 D + 411,515

08-12: + 131,229 + 97,517 + 12,288

+ 21,424 D min. 85,229

Why Virginia? Because a Democratic win of Virginia’s 13

electoral votes added to the 257 Blue Wall electoral votes

equals the 270 needed to win. The last time a Republican won

the White House while losing Virginia was 1924, the Roaring

Twenties Slumber Party year when America kept cool with

Calvin Coolidge except in Robert Lafollette’s Wisconsin,

Oklahoma and the eleven Old Confederacy states, which

included Virginia, where Democrat John W. Davis, Esq.

achieved 62.48%, 33.66 percentage points ahead of his

national percentage. In the years when Republicans carried

two or more Southern states (192816, 1952, 1956, 1960, 1964,

1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004),

Virginia was in the Republican column except in the 1964 LBJ

landslide; note that these Republican wins of Virginia

included the GOP national loss years of 1960, 1992 and 1996.

In 1976, Virginia was the one Southern state carried by

16 Republicans cracked the Solid South in 1920 when Warren Harding carried Tennessee. However, Tennessee and the rest of the South went Democratic in 1924. In 1928, Republicans carried Texas, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

15

President Ford. In 2008 and 2012, the final Virginia all-

vote Democratic percentages of 52.63% and 51.16% came within

minus 0.14 and plus 0.15 percentage points of the national

ones, making the Dynamic Dominion the national bellwether

for the Twenty Teens.17

For Republicans to move up from 206 to 270 in the 2012-

2020 Electoral College, they must add 64 electoral votes.

Since it is highly unlikely the Republicans will flip the 67

from California (55) and Washington (12), Republicans are

likely to target the three closest Romney loss states

(Florida with 29, Ohio 18 and Virginia 13), but still need

one other state with at least four electoral votes (Colorado

(9), New Hampshire (4) or Iowa (6)). The only way the

Republicans can make up for a Virginia loss is through the

two Scranton-Oshkosh strategies of flipping Pennsylvania,

Iowa, Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10) and Ohio, or nominating

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and hope the home-state

appeal adds 14 New Jersey electoral votes to Pennsylvania

(20), Michigan (16)18 and Ohio.19

Virginia does not have a sufficiently large pool of

“missing white voters” to flip the commonwealth. According

to the 2012 exit polls in 31 states, the Virginia electorate17 The Ohio Democratic percentages vis-à-vis national are minus 0.43 in 2012 and minus 1.49 in 2008.18

? Or Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (10).

19 Alternatively, New Jersey (14), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Iowa (6) and Wisconsin (10).

16

Caucasian percentage was 70 percent. According to the 2010

Census website, the total Virginia population of 8,001,031

is 64.1% Non Hispanic White, 19.7% African-American, 8.4%

Hispanic, and 6.0% Asian/Pacific Islander American. Unlike

in Ohio – where it also fails -- in Virginia The Missing

White Voter Theory must coexist with a population that is

34.1 percent minority and an electorate that is only 5.9

exit poll percentage points behind this number.

Why compare 2004 and 2012? Because 2004 represents the

all-time high Republican raw number in the United States

(62,039,572), although in Virginia, the 2012 number

(1,822,522) is the state all-time Republican high, but is

ahead of 2008 by only 97,517, which outpaced 2004 only by a

laughably low 8,046. As for 2012, it represents a Democratic

comedown from the all-time raw number high achieved in the

2008 United States (69,499,428), but not in Virginia, where

the 2012 President Obama number of 1,971,820 is a current

all-time high that outpaced the 2008 Obama number by 12,228,

and the 2004 John Kerry number by 517,078. Nationally,

Barack Obama between 2008 and 2012 lost 3,582,171 raw votes,

but because Mitt Romney added only a net 981,912, Obama won

the national popular vote by 4,985,022, a comedown from the

2008 margin of 9,549,105.20 20 Obama lost 33 electoral votes: 11 from Indiana, 15 from North Carolina, 1 from the Nebraska-2 U.S. House district, and 6 from Census net electoral vote losses in the double-Obama states.

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Virginia 2012: Republicans Are Behind The Democrats By A Five-to-One

Margin in New Votes Since 2004

The Republicans have added only 105,563 Virginia votes

since 2004, whereas the Democrats have added 517,078. When

the Virginia polls closed on Election Night 2012 at 1900

hours Eastern Standard Time the Electoral College outcome

was all over but the counting – Romney overperformed the

McCain raw number by only 97,517, so Barack Obama could see

his raw vote number go up by only 12,228 and still carry

Virginia by 149,298. When Barack Obama won Virginia in

2008, he became the first non-incumbent Democrat since

Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 to achieve a Virginia

majority.21 When he won a second majority in 2012, he

became the first Democrat to win two consecutive Virginia

majorities since FDR in 1940 and 1944. Between 2004 and

2012, the commonwealth margin moved by 411,515, from Bush by

262,217 to Obama by a reduced but still-winning 149,298.22

The Missing White Voter Theory says Rural Virginia

stayed home. In his initial November 8, 2012, article, Mr.

21 From 1876 through 1924, Virginia voted continuously Democratic. In 1928, Herbert Hoover won the state, but Virginia followed by voting fourtimes for FDR and for Harry Truman. Between 1952 and 2004, Virginia voted Democratic only in 1964. 22 The final certified Virginia 2012 returns showed a commonwealth-wide Romney number of 1,822,522, which was 97,517 above the McCain 2008 number of 1,725,005.

18

Trende argued that Republican Ohio turnout rose in the

white-collar suburbia around Columbus and Cincinnati, but

fell in blue-collar or rural Ohio because these voters were

turned off by both President Obama and Mitt “47 percent”

Romney. Trende stated as follows on November 8, 2012:

We can see that the counties clustered around Columbus in the center of the state turned out in full force, as did the suburban counties near Cincinnati in the southwest. These heavily Republican counties are the growing areas of the state, filled with white-collar workers.

Where things drop off are in the rural portions of Ohio, especially in the southeast. These represent areas still hard-hit by the recession. Unemployment is high there, and the area has seen almost no growth in recent years.

My sense is these voters were unhappy with Obama. But his negativead campaign relentlessly emphasizing Romney’s wealth and tenure atBain Capital may have turned them off to the Republican nominee aswell. The Romney campaign exacerbated this through the challenger’s failure to articulate a clear, positive agenda to address these voters’ fears, and self-inflicted wounds like the “47 percent” gaffe. Given a choice between two unpalatable options, these voters simply stayed home.

While these comments misstate the actual Ohio results that

would not be certified for another 28 days, they might apply

to Virginia, because the 21 jurisdictions of southwestern

Virginia Coal Country are Appalachian, much like the 16 Ohio

River counties. In addition, there are 55 other Virginia

jurisdictions that except for Metropolitan Roanoke, are not

in metropolitan areas: 17 in the Shenandoah Valley, 15 in

the Appomattox region, 13 in the Southside and 10 in the

Eastern Rural region, and only six of these have African-

19

American populations in excess of 30 percent.23 This

article and accompanying Charts VII through XI divide the

134 Virginia jurisdictions as 76 in Rural Virginia (broken

down as the Coal Country 21, the Shenandoah Valley 17, the

Appomattox 15, the Southside 13, and the Eastern Rural 10)

and 58 in Metropolitan Virginia (broken down as the

University of Virginia [Charlottesville City and Albemarle

County)], the Northern Virginia 11 Double-Obama, the

Northern Virginia 11 Double-Republican, the Greater Richmond

19, and the Hampton Roads 15).

The Missing White Voter Theory Is Missing Actual Registrations and Actual

Voters

The Missing White Voter Theory has no actual voters.

Even though the final certified Ohio 2012 returns turned out

to be at variance with his November 8, 2012 article, Mr.

Trende in a subsequent four-part Real Clear Politics series24,

expanded his argument nationwide, arguing that “[t]he most

23 Essex County (50%-plus); in the 40% band Brunswick County and Danville City; and in the 30% band Greensville County, Emporia City and Franklin City.

24 Real Clear Politics, June 21, 2013, “The Case of the Missing White Voters, Revisited”; June 25, 2013, “Does GOP Have to Pass Immigration Reform”; June 28, 2013, “The GOP and Hispanics: What the Future Holds”; July 2, 2013, “Demographics and the GOP, Part IV.” The July 2 article is a replyto critics Karl Rove, Jonathan Chait, and the concerned multitudes who expressed concern that GOP emphasis on running up Caucasian percentages would lead to unhealthy racial polarization.

20

salient demographic change from 2008 to 2012 was the drop in

white voters” and claiming that a national 6.5 million

Caucasian eligible voters stayed home in 2012. Mr. Trende

stated in his 2013 articles that even if the missing 6.5

million broke 70-30 for Romney, by itself this group it

would not have won the 2012 election for the Republicans,

but in 2016 and in future elections Republican appeals that

turn them out, combined with reduced African-American

turnout, would carry the day for the GOP – because according

to Trende, it is fine that the Nineteenth Century anti-

slavery party has become the Twenty-first Century equivalent

of the 1868 Democratic “White Man’s Party”25 since “from a

purely electoral perspective, that’s not a terrible thing to

be.”26 By author Kamp’s calculations, since the Obama 2012

national popular vote margin was 4,985,022, if Romney won 90

percent of the “missing” 6.500 million, he would have won

the rounded national popular vote by 345,000 -- 66.782

25 Statement of the 1868 Democratic nominee, New York Governor Horatio Seymour, quoted by Ed Kilgore, “Doubling Down on the White Man’s Party”,June 26, 2013, The Washington Monthly Political Animal blog, www.washingtonmonthly.com26 Trende stated as follows in his June 25, 2013 article: “Democrats liked to mock the GOP as the “Party of White People” after the 2012 elections. But from a purely electoral perspective, that’s not a terrible thing to be.”

21

million versus 66.437 million27, or a two-party vote

percentage of 50.13 percent.

With respect to the outcome-determinative Electoral

College, Mr. Trende (whose initial November 8, 2012 article

was premised on Ohio) never posted in the text of any

article actual raw numbers of registered nonvoting “missing white

voters” in any state, although he does include charts based

on estimated national vote ethnic percentages (but not showing

any state breakdowns) showing Republicans using a “racial

polarization scenario” and a Caucasian 63% Republican

percentage winning between 296 and 329 electoral votes in

every election through 2036, and an exact 270 in 2040; in

his fourth article, Trende stated that the GOP Caucasian

percentage is “capped” at 70 percent.28

The numbers used in The Missing White Voter Theory do

not represent actual registered voters or voting voters in

any state. Rather, as Trende expressly states, he is using

27 Assuming the added 6.500 million divides 2 percent for “others” (130,000), 8 percent for Obama (plus 520,000 on top of actual 65,917,257 = 66,437,257) and 90 percent for Romney (plus 5.850 million on top of actual 60,932,235 = 66,782,235). Actual vote figures from theDavid Leip U.S. Election Atlas website, www.uselectionatlas.org, accessed September 15, 2013. 28 Trende stated on July 2, 2013: “Whatever the cause, the trend is real, and it’s not just due to Obama (in fact, the [Alan Abramowitz TimeFor A Change] model predicts the white vote in 2012 within two points). Now, the Democrats clearly have some sort of floor with whites -- it’s why I cap the Republican share of the white vote at 70 percent even in the “polarization” scenario. I just don’t think we’re at that floor yet.”

22

only Census estimates of 2008 and 2012 turnout to which Trende adds

2008 exit poll ethnic percentages29:

Using the most commonly accepted exit-poll numbers about the 2008 electorate*, we can roughly calculate the number of voters of eachracial group who cast ballots that year. Using census estimates, we can also conclude that all of these categories should have increased naturally from 2008 to 2012, due to population growth.

From mid-2008 to mid-2012, the census estimates that the number ofwhites of voting age increased by 3 million. If we assume that these “new” voters would vote at a 55 percent rate, we calculate that the total number of white votes cast should have increased byabout 1.6 million between 2008 and 2012.

***

Now, the raw exit-poll data haven’t come out yet, so we can’t calculate the 2012 data to tenths: The white vote for 2012 could have been anywhere between 71.5 percent of the vote or 72.4 percent (with 26,000 respondents, analysis to tenths is very meaningful). So the final answer is that there were 6.1 million fewer white voters in 2012 than we’d have expected, give or take amillion.**

The Current Population Survey data roughly confirm this. As I noted earlier, if you correct the CPS data to account for over-response bias, it shows there were likely 5 million fewer whites in 2012 than in 2008. When you account for expected growth, we’d find 6.5 million fewer whites than a population projection would anticipate.

The Census Current Population Survey Is Not The Best Evidence -- It

Overstated the 2012 National Popular Vote by 3.7 Million, and Understated

Virginia Actual Registration and Voting in 2004, 2008, and 2012

29 In 2012, exit polls were conducted in only 31 states. The quoted language comes from the Trende June 21, 2013 article under Point 1.

23

The Census Survey used for the Missing White Voter

Theory produces numbers too far from the actual results to

be useful. The Trende series inspired a cacophony of calumny

(and some informed commentary), but one salient point never

emerged: the Census survey data is not the equivalent of

state or county-level numbers of actual 2012 registered voters who

“stayed home” rather than voting for Romney.30 These

numbers cannot be found in the Census data, because the

Census states that its’ eligibility, registration and voting

numbers are derived from self-reporting by a sample of

roughly 50,000 respondents to the Current Population Survey

(CPS) as to their citizen 18-plus status, voter

registration31, and whether they voted. This is a

commendably large sample, but in 2012 it overstated the

national total vote as 132.948 million, when the actual

total vote for President was 129,215,421.

In Virginia, the CPS for 2012 reports 5.645 million

citizen-eligible, 4.210 million registered, and 3.778

million voting. The Census CPS has a Virginia monopoly on

the “citizen-eligible” number, because the Virginia State

30 Ohio starting in 2006 joined California and other states that offer no-excuses mail ballot voting, so in 2008 and 2012 (but not in 2004) onecan “stay home” and still vote.

31 Not required in the Nineteenth Century, but now a requirement in every state except North Dakota.

24

Board of Elections website32 does not list this number33; in

contrast, the California Secretary of State refuses to use

the Census 23.419 million citizen-eligible number for

California, but instead adjusts it upward to 23,802,577

based on data from the California Departments of Finance and

Corrections.34 The Census citizen-eligible number is only a

secondary source to determine the potential for expanding

the electorate. Instead, one assigned to develop a 2016

Republican strategy for flipping Virginia would first go to

the state-level and county-level registered voter and actual voting

numbers, augmented by voter file data as to the number of

and type of elections in which each registered voter has

participated (“flags” in the typical precinct walk sheet or

its’ Smartphone equivalent). Registered voters need only be

persuaded and turned out, whereas the unregistered first

need a registration drive.

The Census estimates for Virginia registered voters and

actual voting for 2004, 2008 and 2012 differ substantially

from the actual registration and voting statistics on the

Virginia State Board of Elections website35: 32

? www.sbe.virginia.gov33 Unlike many other state election officer websites, Virginia links to the Census reports that include the CPS and its’ estimates.34

? California Secretary of State website, www.sos.ca.gov, “Elections”,“Prior Elections”, “Statewide Elections”, “November 6, 2012 General Election”, “Registration Statistics”, “15-day Report of Registration.”

35 The quoted commonwealth-wide registration numbers are:

25

For 2004, the Census estimates rounded 3.441

million registered and 3.134 million voting, but

the actual numbers are 4,517,980 registered and

3,223,156 voting;

For 2008, the Census estimates 3.950 million

registered and 3.650 million voting, but the

actual numbers are 5,034,660 registered and

3,752,858 voting;

And for 2012, the Census estimates 4.210 million

registered and 3.778 million voting, but the

actual numbers are 5,428,833 total registered and

3,896,846 voting; note that the latter is 42,357

The 2004 “registered voters” number (as opposed to “qualified voters”, which is 449 fewer).

The 2008 and 2012 “total registered” numbers, as opposed to the smaller “active registered” numbers, which according to September 6, 2013 and September 26, 2013 electronic mail messages from the Virginia State Board of Elections, is a subset of “registered voters” that consists of registered voters who have actually voted in “past elections.” The “active registered” category was not used in 2004.

In 2008, the “active registered” number was 4,912,971, which is 121,689 fewer than the total registered number. In 2012, the “active registered” number was 4,848,597, which is 580,236 fewer.

This article uses the “total registered” number because this is the onlyone available in both 2004 and 2012, and because it models the largest possible pool of registered nonvoters.

The quoted commonwealth-wide voting numbers are the total number of voters who voted absentee (mail) or in-person, including counted provisional ballots. They differ from the David Leip U.S. Election Atlas website presidential numbers because the Leip website total vote number is the total vote for the particular office (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, downballot offices) rather than the election.

26

above the 3,854,489 total vote for President – if

Romney had won all of these, he would have cut

Obama’s Virginia margin to 106,941.

Every state except no-registration North Dakota reports per-

election voter registration on its’ election officer

website, and every state reports the total vote; Virginia

charts both back to 1976, has election results back to 1995,

and links to a University of Virginia Institute for Politics

database with non-Presidential data back to 1788. Other

sources provide county-level data back to 1788 in some

states.36 The David Leip U.S. Election Atlas website in a

single screen charts Virginia state-level total vote and

partisan numbers all the way back to 1856, county-level

numbers back to 1932, and has per-election screen state-

level data back to the first Virginia election with complete

returns (1800). These sources provide actual registration and voting data,

36 The David Leip U.S. Election Atlas website has actual votes down to the county level for elections back to 1900 or even farther back in manylocales; the late Richard Scammon’s America at the Polls and America Votes has them back to 1920; Walter Dean Burnham’s Presidential Ballots has county-level returns between 1836 and 1892, Edgar Eugene Robinson’s The Presidential Vote has them from 1896 through 1932 and for 1932-1944 in They Voted for Roosevelt, and Michael Dubin has collected all available pre-1860 returns back to 1788 in United States Presidential Elections 1788-1860.

For Virginia, the David Leip U.S. Election Atlas has a single chart withstate-level percentages and raw numbers from 2012 back to 1856. The chart links to county-level returns for 1912, 1924, and all elections between 1932 and 2012.

27

not estimates, and should be looked to first in the search for the actual 6.5

million missing white voters.

The Missing White Voter Theory Census Estimate Predicate Appears To

Assume a Highly Improbable 100 Percent Turnout of 216,000 Unregistered At 85

Percent Republican – Which Still Cannot Beat the 2008 Obama Margin

If the unregistered are the target group, Republicans

will need 100 percent turnout, not the 55 percent used in

The Missing White Voter Theory article series. The only

reason to look at the Census estimates: they provide the

only statistics available for the citizen-eligible

population and ethnic/gender breakdowns of the CPS

respondents.37 The citizen-eligible population includes

unregistered eligibles, registered nonvoters, and registered

actual voters. The gap between the Census 5.645 million

“citizen-eligible” survey response estimate and actual total

registration for 2012 Virginia (rounded 5.429 million) is a

rounded 216,000. If these 216,000 exist, and:

if the 2016 Republican nominee found, registered,

persuaded and delivered 100 percent of all of

these 216,000 unregistered 2012 nonvoters at 85%

Republican, 13% Democratic and 2% Other38; 37 Another source for ethnic/racial breakdowns is the American National Election Study (ANES), as analyzed by Alan Abramowitz and Ruy Teixera onJuly 30, 2013, “The Missing White Voters: Round Two of the Debate.”

38 The 2012 Virginia “other” percentage was 1.56%. In post-1928 years other than 1948 (Strom Thurmond), 1968 (George Wallace), 1980 (John

28

and assuming no other changes anywhere else

(highly unlikely);

the Republican column amount goes up by 155,520,

thus topping by 6,222 the augmented 2012 Obama

Virginia margin of 149,298, but not the 2008

margin of 234,527.39

However, if the turnout is the 55 percent used in the Missing White Voter

articles40, only 118,800 are added, which falls short of both the Obama 2012 and

2008 Virginia margins, meaning The Missing White Voter Theory mathematically

cannot flip Virginia. Democrats if they hold Ohio or Florida41

could still hold the White House without Virginia, but

because The Missing White Voter Theory cannot flip Virginia,

Democrats will likely not enjoy the irony of Republicans

trying to win the election among the unregistered and

alienated whom Republican Governors and legislatures across

the country in 2013 have been trying to keep from voting,

even if the 2016 Republican nominee runs a registration

drive trumpeting “White People Wake Up” – the 1950 election

Anderson), 1992-1996 (Ross Perot) and 2000 (Ralph Nader), the non-major collective percentage in Virginia has never exceeded 2.75% (1976).

39 The calculation assumes the 216,000 break Republican 85% = 183,600 new Republicans, offset by Democratic 13% = 28,080 = net Republican gainof 155,520, which defeats the Obama 2012 margin (149,298) but not Obama 2008 (234,527)

40 In his June 21, 2013 article, Trende stated under point 1: “If we assume that these “new” voters would vote at a 55 percent rate . . .”

41 The 246 electoral votes from the 2004 Kerry states plus Iowa (6) and New Mexico (5), plus either Florida (29) or Ohio (18), or Colorado (9) and Nevada (6).

29

eve segregationist slogan in the 1950 North Carolina U.S.

Senate Democratic primary.42

When reading the Missing White Voter Theory analysis,

keep in mind that the “missing white voter” group in

Virginia necessarily includes an estimated 216,000 who did not even bother

to register to vote, as do the 2012 Census CPS estimates of

Virginia Non-Hispanic White (NHW) populations of 4.114

million eligible, 3.118 million registered and 3.778 million

voting – all three are estimates, and the full-population

Virginia Secretary of State numbers for actual registered and

actual voting are so far removed from the CPS estimates for

Virginia as to render the latter useless for evaluating the

universe of registered “missing voters.” In any event, the

Republican task will be easier if the Republican Virginia

House of Delegates and the 20-20 Virginia State Senate move

the registration deadline from Election Day minus 22 to

Election Day minus 1543 or even to the Election Day

Registration used in Idaho, Iowa,

Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New

Hampshire, Wisconsin, Wyoming, and D.C.

Another Census Estimate Element of the Missing White Voter Theory Adds

Only 134,000 New Voters, Less Than The Obama 2012 and 2008 Margins

42 Samuel Lubell, The Future of American Politics (3d. ed. 1965), pages 106-113 (“Who Beat Frank Graham?”). 43 California law between 2000 and 2012. Election Day registration may take effect in 2014.

30

Another estimate relied upon by The Missing White Voter

Theory is the gap between Census Non-Hispanic White (NHW)

estimated registered versus the estimated NHW voting, but in

Virginia this gap at 134,000 underperforms both the Obama

2012 and 2008 margins. The Missing White Voter Theory is

premised on a 2008-2012 growth in the national eligible NHW

population offset against a national decline in NHW

registration and voting. Although the CPS has state-level

estimates, the Missing White Voter Theory articles do not

mention any of them. Here are the CPS estimates for

Virginia:

Chart IV: Census CPS Estimated NHW Registering and

Voting in Virginia

2004 2008 2012 04-12

08-12

Eligible 3.741 M 3.912 M 4.114

M + 373 T + 202 T

Registered 2.731 M 2.945 M 3.118 M

+ 387 T + 173 T

Voting 2.525 M 2.716 M 2.778 M

+ 253 T + 62 T

As displayed:

31

NHW eligibles in Virginia increased by 373,000 between

2004 and 2012;

registered NHW increased by 387,000;

and voting NHW increased by 253,000.

These estimates are worthless in the context of the actual

numbers, but they “show” that in Virginia, there is no gap

between the 2004-2012 growth in NHW eligibles and the growth

in NHW registered – indeed, the increase in NHW registered

exceeds the increase in NHW eligibles by 14,000. These

estimates do show a gap in the growth of NHW registered and

NHW voting – of 134,000, which is less than the Obama 2012

margin of 149,298, not to mention the 2008 Obama margin of

234,527. In other words, Republicans could turn out and win

100 percent of the “gap” between Census-reported NHW

registered and NHW voting, but would still fall short of

both the Obama 2012 and 2008 margins.

Actual Voter Registration and Voting In Virginia

To find out if enough “missing white voters” actually

exist in Virginia, the best sources are the state-level and

county-level registration, total vote, and partisan vote

changes between 2004 and 2012. Since Virginia voters do not

register by party, one cannot use the partisan registration

statistics common in other states such as California and

32

Pennsylvania. Registration in Virginia closes 22 days before

Election Day and felons can register only if their rights

have been restored (much more restrictive than in

California, where the ex-felon can re-register once the

prison term or parole ends). Voters must re-register if

they change their address anywhere, and can do so online, or

can download a paper form to change their address manually.

They can also vote in their old precinct for up to one

general election and two federal elections after the move,

provided they do not change their registration address

beforehand.44

Virginia’s 134 Jurisdictions: 76Rural, 58Metropolitan

Virginia in 2004, 2008 and 2012 had 134 jurisdictions

that report votes – 95 counties and 39 independent cities.45

This article and accompanying Charts VI through X divide

them as 76 in Rural Virginia (broken down as the Coal

Country 21, the Shenandoah Valley 17, the Appomattox 15, the

Southside 13, and the Eastern Rural 10) and 58 in

44 Virginia State Board of Elections website, www.sbe.virginia.gov, “Voter Registration.”

45 Over the more than two centuries of voting in Virginia, some of the cities have merged, gone out of existence, or changed their names. However, there were no changes between 2004 and 2012. In July 2013, Bedford City merged back into Bedford County, meaning the number of jurisdictions drops to 133 in 2013 et seq. In previous years, Clifton Forge and South Boston were independent cities, but they abandoned this status in 2001 and 1995 and merged back into their surrounding counties.

33

Metropolitan Virginia (broken down as the University of

Virginia two [Charlottesville City and Albemarle County],

the Northern Virginia 11 Double-Obama, the Northern Virginia

11 Double-Republican, the Greater Richmond 19, and the

Hampton Roads 15. The Northern Virginia Double-Obama

category includes 11 of the 16 District of Columbia Metro

jurisdictions in Virginia. The Northern Virginia 11 Double-

Republican category includes the five D.C. Metro counties of

Clarke, Warren, Fauquier, Spotsylvania, and Stafford plus

six exurban outliers not yet in the D.C. Metro area --

Rappahannock, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Frederick in

the north, and Culpeper in the south. The Greater Richmond

19 includes Richmond City plus eighteen suburban

jurisdictions.46 The Hampton Roads grouping consists of the

15 jurisdictions centered on the cities of Norfolk,

Portsmouth, Hampton, Chesapeake, Newport News, Poquoson,

Portsmouth, Suffolk, Williamsburg and Virginia Beach.47

Turning to Rural Virginia, Coal Country consists of 21

jurisdictions in southwestern Virginia’s Fighting Ninth U.S.

House district. The Shenandoah Valley 17 counties are 46 Henrico, Chesterfield, Amelia, Caroline, Charles City, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Hanover, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Powhatan, Prince George, and Sussex counties, plus the cities of Richmond, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, and Petersburg. See www.wikipedia.org, “Greater Richmond Region.”47

? Plus the counties of Gloucester, Isle of Wight, Matthews, Surry and York. www.wikipedia.org, “Hampton Roads.” Because Surry County wasin the Hampton Roads metro area in 2004 and 2008, it is treated as a part of Hampton Roads in 2012 even though it was removed in the 2010 Census.

34

strung out on Interstate 81 between Roanoke and

Harrisonburg.48 Appomattox consists of 15 rural counties in

the Appomattox Court House area where Lee surrendered to

Grant to end the military Civil War. The Southside consists

of 13 counties and cities on the North Carolina border,

including Danville and Pittsylvania. The Eastern Rural

region consists of 10 counties in the Northern Neck, Middle

Peninsula and Delmarva Peninsula.

Map of Virginia’s Political Regions, 2004-2012

2012 

2008 

48

? The Shenandoah Valley 17 category includes all of the Roanoke Metropolitan Area jurisdictions: Roanoke City, Roanoke County, Salem City, and the counties of Botetourt, Craig and Franklin. Barack Obama carried Roanoke City in 2008 and 2012, but all of the other jurisdictions are double-Republican.

35

2004 

36

Virginia’s 134 Jurisdictions: _35 are 90 Percent Or More Caucasian

The 2010 Census numbers show that 35 of the 134

Virginia jurisdictions have Caucasian populations of 90

percent or higher.49 As can be seen, these 35 are all in

Coal Country or the Shenandoah Valley except for Page,

Rappahannock and Shenandoah in the exurban D.C. 11 Double-

Republican counties.

Chart V: Virginia Jurisdictions Ranked by Caucasian

Percentage in 2010 Census

90% Alleghany Augusta Bath Bedford Bland Botetourt Buchanan

Carroll (98.1) Craig (98.5) Dickenson (98.8) Floyd Frederick

Giles Grayson Highland (99.0) Lee Page Patrick Pulaski

49 www.census.gov, “2010 Census Interactive Population Search” for Virginia and each of its’ 134 counties (the 39 independent cities are alpha-listed after the 95 counties).

37

Rappahannock Rockbridge Rockingham Russell (98.0) Scott

(98.2) Shenandoah Smyth Tazewell Warren Washington Wise

Wythe Bristol City Buena Vista City Galax City Poquoson City

80% Albemarle Campbell Fauquier Fluvanna Franklin

Gloucester Greene Hanover James City Madison Matthews

Montgomery Nelson New Kent Orange Powhatan Roanoke County

Colonial Hgts City (81.9) Covington Vity Falls Church City

Harrisonburg City Lexington City Norton City Radford City

(86.8) Salem City (88.9) Staunton City Waynesboro City

Winchester City

70% Amelia Amherst Appomattox Arlington Chesterfield

Clarke Culpeper Goochland Henry Isle of Wight King George

King William Lancaster Loudoun Louisa Middlesex

Northumberland Pittsylvania Spotsylvania Stafford York

Bedford City Charlottesville City Fairfax City Manassas City

Manassas Park City Williamsburg City

60% Accomack Buckingham Caroline Charlotte Dinwiddie

Fairfax Halifax Henrico (60.2) King and Queen Lunenberg

Mecklenburg Northampton Prince Edward Roanoke City

Prince George Prince William Richmond County Southampton

Westmoreland Fredericksburg city Alexandria City Chesapeake

City Lynchburg City Virginia Bch City

38

50% Essex Nottoway Surry Hopewell City Martinsville City

Newport News City Suffolk City

40% Brunswick Charles City County Sussex Danville City

Hampton City Norfolk City Portsmouth City Richmond City

30% Greensville Emporia City Franklin City

20% (none)

10% Petersburg City (17.7)

1992 and 1996 Ross Perot: Weak in Virginia

The Missing White Voter Theory says Rural Virginia

counties where Ross Perot performed best in 1992 are the

most likely missing voter pool, but Perot underperformed in

Virginia. According to the 2013 Sean Trende articles, the

best statistical correlations for the “missing white voter”

is a county-level Ross Perot 1992 percentage above the

national Perot 18.91%. Of course, this three-way election

took place 20 years ago, but in any event in 1992 Virginia

Ross Perot achieved 13.63%, 5.18 percentage points below his

national percentage. Perot finished third in every

jurisdiction, and finished above his national 18.91% in only

three jurisdictions: Manassas Park City (20.70%),

39

Gloucester (19.78%) and Matthews (19.54%). Perot’s worst

jurisdiction was Petersburg City, the least Caucasian

jurisdiction in Virginia (17.7 percent), and he scored

below-national in all the major population center

jurisdictions. In the 1996 Perot encore run50, Perot

achieved a national 8.40 percent and a Virginia 6.62

percent, and performed above 7 percent in 88 of the 135

jurisdictions. The two-decades-past nature of the Perot runs

is highly relevant today, because Virginia of 2012 is

fundamentally different from Virginia of 1992-2000, when

Virginia was not targeted by the Clinton or Gore campaigns.

Actual Virginia Registration Data Show That Voter Registration ROSE by

900,000 Between 2004 and 2012, And By 394,173 Between 2008 and 2012

More than 900,000 Virginians were added to the

registration rolls between 2004 and 2012, and thus if they

went “missing”, it was only by their own choice. Perusal of

the Voter Turnout Reports for 2004, 2008 and 2012 on the

Virginia State Board of Elections website51 shows the

following actual voter movements:

50 Not discussed in any of the Trende articles.

51 www.sbe.virginia.gov, “Results and Reports”, “Election Results”, “Voter Turnout Report.”

40

Between 2004 and 2012, total Virginia voter

registration rose from 4,517,980 to 5,428,833, an

increase of 910,853.

In this eight-year span, registration from 2004 to 2008

rose by 516,680, and between 2008 and 2012, rose by

another 394,173.

Unlike Ohio, Virginia is a growing state52, and 82 percent of

the registration and voting growth took place in the 58

metropolitan jurisdictions, not in the Coal Country,

Appomattox, Southside, the Shenandoahs or the Eastern Rural

counties. Of the 910,853 commonwealth-wide registration

increase between 2004 and 2012, only 156,513 occurred in the

76 Rural Virginia jurisdictions. Of the 673,690 growth in

the total vote for any office, only 115,288 occurred in

Rural Virginia. In terms of registered non-voters, between

2004 and 2012 this category grew by 237,163 in the entire

commonwealth, but only by 41,225 in Rural Virginia.

Virginia Voting 2004 To 2012: Total Vote Up, Democrats Ahead Five-to-One

Between 2004 and 2012, the Virginia total Presidential

vote rose by 656,122, but only 105,563 went to the

Republicans and 517,078 went to the Democrats. On the actual

voting front, between 2004 and 2012:

52 Between the 2000 Census and 2010 Census, Virginia added 922,509, whereas Ohio added only 183,364.

41

The total Virginia vote for any office rose by 673,690.

The total vote for President rose by 656,122, from

3,198,367 to the 2012 and all-time high number of

3,854,489 – three successive all-time highs.

In between, the total vote for any office rose from

3,223,156 in 2004 to 3,752,858 in 2008 to 3,896,846 in

2012 – three successive all-time highs.

Virginia is still in the 19-state minority that has neither

early voting nor no-excuses absentee or mail ballot voting.

The Absentee Ballot Application on the Virginia State Board

of Elections website requires voters to list a specific

reason, although one of the eligible reasons is a vacation

on Election Day (but the voter must list the destination).

In 2012, the counted absentee ballot number was 447,907,

which was 11.49 percent of the total vote. Provisional

ballots in 2012 were only 10,151 or 26 one hundredths of a

percent of the commonwealth total vote.

On the partisan vote for President front:

The Republican raw vote between 2004 and 2008 rose

by only 8,046, whereas the Democratic number rose

by 504,790 – a 62-to-1 ratio.

Between 2008 and 2012, the Republican raw vote

went up by 97,517, the seventh-largest Romney

state-level gain in the United States and 9.93

42

percent of the Romney national net over-McCain

gain of 981,912.

Between 2004 and 2008, the Democratic raw vote for

President rose by 504,790, 63 times more than the

Republican increase.

Between 2008 and 2012, the Democratic raw vote for

President increased by only 12,288, but the

Democratic 2008 margin was 234,527, meaning

President Obama won by 149,298.

The total vote for “other” Presidential candidates

rose from 26,666 in 2004 (when Ralph Nader was

only a write-in, and 21,193 went to the

Libertarian or Constitution tickets) to 38,723 in

2008 (Nader on-ballot 11,483) and then almost

doubled to 60,147 in 2012, but only 13,058 went to

Virginia-5 ex-Congressman Virgil Goode, and 31,216

went to the Libertarian ticket.

The number of voters who cast ballots but who

skipped the Presidential elector line: 24,759 in

2004, 29,598 in 2008, and 42,357 in 2012.

Thus, in Virginia between 2004 and 2012:

Total registration increased by 910,853,

starting with a 516,680 gain in 2008, followed

by another 394,173 in 2012.

The total vote for any office rose by 673,690.

43

The total Presidential vote rose by 656,122.

The Democratic raw vote for President rose five

times more than the Republican raw vote, with

the bulk of the increase in 2008.

The number of persons who skipped the

Presidential option but otherwise voted fell

from rose from 24,759 to 42,357 -- the 2012

number is 28.37% of the President Obama margin.

The Republican commonwealth-wide gained vote

number of 105,563 is barely one-eighth of the

registration increase between 2004 and 2012.

If in 2016 the 2012 Democratic number remains static,

Republicans need another 150,000 votes to win Virginia by a

post-1860 record close margin of a raw 702. To avoid facing

America’s best statewide Democratic election protection and

recount operation (the one led by Jack Young), Republicans

would be advised to aim for 160,000 to 200,000. This could

come from flipping 100,000 Democratic votes, or under The

Missing White Voter Theory, from a Rural Virginia electorate

of 200,000 that “stayed home” in 2012 rather than choose

between Mitt “47 percent” Romney and President Obama.

In Every Presidential Year, Over One Million Registered Virginia Voters Do

Not Vote

44

Each Presidential year, more than one million registered

Virginia voters do not vote for any office. Perusal of the

Voter Turnout Reports charts on the Virginia State Board of

Elections website53 reveals that in 2012, 1,531,987

registered Virginia voters did not vote. The fact that

between 1.2 million and 1.5 million registered Virginia

voters regularly “stay home” in Presidential years should be

kept in mind when evaluating the turnout increases needed

for The Missing White Voter Theory to flip Virginia.

Chart VI: One Million or More Regular Registered

Nonvoters in Virginia

Registered Voting Registered Nonvoters %

2004 4,517,980 3,223,156 1,294,824

28.65%

2008 5,034,660 3,752,858 1,281,802

25.45%

2012 5,428,833 3,896,846 1,531,987

28.21%

The Missing White Voter Theory argues that there was a

substantial drop-off in rural Republican voting between 2008

and 2012. Virginia in this quadrennium saw a commonwealth-

wide increase of 250,185 in registered non-voters between

53 www.sbe.virginia.gov

45

2008 and 201254. If 100 percent of these 250,185 magically

reappear in 2016 and vote 97 percent Republican, the Obama

2008 margin is trumped by all of 513 votes55; if they vote

80 percent Republican, 18 percent Democratic and 2 percent

Others, the 2012 Obama margin of 149,298 is trumped by 5,817

from a net 155,115 Republican increase.56

However, Mr. Trende in his articles uses a 55 percent

turnout rate, which results in only 137,601 new voters, a

number that falls short of both the 2012 and 2008 Obama

margins.

At a still-improbable 70% turnout rate (175,129 new

voters), Republicans need 92 percent (plus 161,118, offset

by Democratic 6% or 10,507) to trump the 2012 Obama margin

by all of 1,312 votes. At even more improbable turnout

rates of 75 to 95 percent, Republicans still need between 89

and 81 percent to trump the 2012 Obama margin:

At 75% = 187,638 = 89% = R 166,997 minus D 9% = 16,887 =

150,109

At 80% = 200,148 = 87% = R 174,128 minus D 11% = 22,016 =

152,111

54 The 2004 – 2012 increase is 237,163. 55

? 250,185 times Republican 97 percent (plus 242,679) offset by 2 percentDemocratic (5,003) and 1 percent Others (2,501) = Republican net plus 237,676.

56 250,185 times Republican 80 percent (plus 200,148) offset by 18 percent Democratic (45,033) and 2 percent Others (5,003) equals Republican net plus 155,115.

46

At 85% = 212,657 = 85% = R 180,758 minus D 13% = 27,645 =

153,112

At 90% = 225,166 = 83% = R 186,887 minus D 15% = 33,774 =

153,112

At 95% = 237,675 = 81% = R 192,516 minus D 17% = 40,404 =

152,111

If one compares 2004 and 2012, one finds that there was

an increase of only 41,225 registered non-voters in the 76

Rural Virginia jurisdictions, contrasted by the 195,938

increase in the 58 Metropolitan Virginia jurisdictions. The

55 percent turnout rate used by Trende applied to the growth

in registered non-voters between 2004 and 2012 adds only 22,673 new

Rural Virginia voters and 107,765 new Metropolitan Virginia

voters – even combined, these numbers fall short of the 2012

Obama margin, not to mention 2008.

47

Rural Virginia: ____395,683 Registered 2012 Nonvoters – Republicans Need

100 Percent Turnout and a 68 or 80 Percent Performance, and Higher If the

Turnout Is Less than 100 Percent

In 2008 and 2012, candidate or President Barack Obama

carried 11 Northern Virginia jurisdictions, both University

of Virginia jurisdictions, 6 Greater Richmond jurisdictions,

8 Hampton Roads jurisdictions, 5 Southside jurisdictions, 4

Eastern Rural jurisdictions, 4 Appomattox jurisdictions, 5

Shenandoah Valley jurisdictions, and only one Coal Country

jurisdiction (Radford City). In 2008 and 2012, McCain or

Romney carried the 11 Northern Virginia exurban

jurisdictions, 13 Greater Richmond jurisdictions, 6 Hampton

Roads jurisdictions, 11 Appomattox jurisdictions, 8

Southside jurisdictions, 6 Eastern Rural jurisdictions, 11

Shenandoah Valley jurisdictions, and 20 Coal Country

jurisdictions. Between 2008 and 2012, only two

jurisdictions flipped, both from Obama to Romney: the

Eastern Rural county of King and Queen, and the Shenandoah

Valley county of Montgomery.

The 395,683 registered 2012 nonvoters in Rural Virginia

flip the commonwealth only with respect to the 2012 Obama

margin and only at an improbable 100 percent turnout that

breaks 68 percent Republican, 30 percent Democratic57, and 257 395,683 times 68 percent Republican (plus 269,064) offset by Democratic 30 percent (118,704) and 2 percent Others (7,913) = net Republican gain of 150,360, beating the 2012 Obama margin by a raw 1,062votes.

48

percent Others; to beat 2008, the turnout must be 100

percent and the Republican percentage 80 percent58.

However, Mr. Trende in his articles uses a 55 percent

turnout rate, which adds only 217,625 new voters, a number

that facially underperforms the 2008 Obama margin and trumps

the 2012 Obama margin only at 84 percent Republican.59 The

highest percentage Romney 2012 Virginia jurisdiction is

Tazewell County in Coal Country at 78.07%. There are nine

others at 70 percent or above, and another five at 68 or 69

percent; in these Top Fifteen Romney counties, the numbered

of registered voters who did not vote for President is

106,899, less than the Obama 2012 margin.60 Of these

fifteen, twelve are in the 76 Rural Virginia jurisdictions,

and three are Metropolitan – Colonial Heights and Powhatan

in Greater Richmond, and Poquoson in Hampton Roads.

58 395,683 times 80 percent Republican (plus 316,546) offset by Democratic 20 percent (79,136) and 2 percent Others (7,913) = net Republican gain of 237,410, beating the 2008 Obama margin by a raw 2,883.59

? 217,625 times Republican 84 percent (plus 182,805), offset by Democratic 14 percent (30,467) and Others 2 percent (4,352) = net Republican gain of 152,338.

60 From the David Leip U.S. Election Atlas website:

PlaceCountyTotal VotesRankRomney1Tazewell17,732113,843 78.07%2Poquoson7,10615,312 74.75%3Scott9,99217,439 74.45%4Wise15,018111,076 73.75%5Bland2,94812,144 72.73%6Powhatan15,525111,200 72.14%7Lee9,59816,847 71.34%8Bedford37,425126,679 71.29%9Washington25,632118,141 70.77%10Augus

ta33,672123,624 70.16%11Rockingham34,866124,186 69.37%12Colonial

Heights8,62415,941 68.89%13Campbell25,696117,695 68.86%14Botetourt18,241112,479 68.41%15Patrick8,25915,622 68.07%

49

If The 395,683 Registered 2012 Rural Virginia Nonvoters Turn Out At Less

Than 38 Percent, Republicans Mathematically Cannot Win

Republicans mathematically cannot win if registered

nonvoter turnout is less than 38 percent. If Republicans

cannot turn out 100 percent of the Rural Virginia registered

nonvoter 395,683, the target Republican percentage rises

proportionally to even more improbable levels. If turnout is

below 59 percent, Republicans mathematically cannot top the

2008 Obama margin. If turnout is below 38 percent,

Republicans mathematically cannot top the 2012 Obama margin:

90 percent turnout (356,114) – 82 percent

Republican to beat 2008, 70 percent to beat

2012.61

80 percent turnout (316,546) – 87 percent

Republican to beat 2008, 73 percent to beat

2012.62

61 356,114 x .82 = 292,013 new Republican, offset by Democratic 16 percent (56,978) = R net + 235,034 beating Obama 2008 by a raw 507.

356,114 x .70 = 249,279 new Republican, offset by Democratic 28 percent (99,711) = R net + 149,567, beating Obama 2012 by a raw 269.

62 316,546 x .87 = 275,395 new Republican, offset by Democratic 11 percent (34,820) = R net + 240,575, beating Obama 2008 by a raw 6,048.

316,546 x .73 = 231,078 new Republican, offset by Democratic 25 percent (79,136) = R net + 151,941, beating Obama 2012 by a raw 2,643.

50

70 percent turnout (276,978) – 92 percent

Republican to beat 2008, 76 percent to beat

2012.63

65 percent turnout (257,193) – 95 percent

Republican to beat 2008, 79 percent to beat

201264.

60 percent turnout (237,409) – can beat 2008 Obama

margin by one raw vote only at 99 percent

Republican and 1 percent Democratic; 81 percent to

beat 2012.65

Note that the Missing White Voter Theory national estimates

assume a 55 percent turnout66, but in Virginia, this cannot 63

? 276,968 x .92 = 254,819 new Republican, offset by Democratic 6 percent(16,618) = R net + 238,200, beating Obama 2008 by a raw 3,673.

276,968 x .76 = 210,495 new Republican, offset by Democratic 22 percent (60,932) = R net + 149,562, beating Obama 2012 by a raw 264. 64 257,193 x .95 = 244,333 new Republican, offset by Democratic 3 percent (7,715) = R net + 236,617, beating Obama 2008 by a raw 2,090.

257,193 x .79 = 203,182 new Republican, offset by Democratic 19 percent (48,866) = R net + 154,316, beating Obama 2012 by a raw 5,018.

65 237,409 x .99 = 235,034 new Republican, offset by no more than Democratic 506 (0.0000042, zero to Others) = R net + 234,528 – one raw vote ahead of the 2008 Obama margin.

237,409 x .81 = 192,301 new Republican, offset by Democratic 17 percent (40,359) = R net + 151,941, beating the 2012 Obama margin by a raw 2,643. 66 In his June 21, 2013 article, Trende stated under point 1: “If we assume that these “new” voters would vote at a 55 percent rate . . .”

51

top Obama 2008 and defeats Obama 2012 only at 85 percent

Republican:

55 percent turnout (217,625) – can top 2012 only

at 84 percent Republican.67

50 percent turnout (197,841) – can barely top 2012

at 87 percent Republican.68

45 percent turnout (178,057) – can barely top 2012

at 91 percent Republican.69

40 percent turnout (158,273) – can barely top 2012

at 97 percent Republican and zero Democratic.70

38 percent turnout (150,359) – can barely top 2012

by a raw 345 only at 99.5 percent Republican and

zero Democratic.71

37 percent turnout (146,402) – mathematically

cannot top the 2012 Obama margin of 149,298.

67 217,625 x .84 = 182,805 new Republican, offset by Democratic 14 percent (30,467) = R net + 152,338, beating the 2012 Obama margin by a raw 3,040. 68 197,841 x .87 = 172,121 new Republican, offset by Democratic 11 percent (21,762) = R net + 150,358, beating Obama 2012 by a raw 1,060.

69 178,057 x .91 = 162,031 new Republican, offset by Democratic 7 percent (12,463) = R net + 149,568, beating Obama 2012 by a raw 270. 70

? 158,273 x .97 = 153,524 new Republican, offset by Democratic 1 percent(1,582) = R net + 151,941, beating Obama 2012 by a raw 643.71

? 150,339 x .995 = 149,643, offset by no more than a Democratic raw 344 to beat Obama 2012 by one raw vote.

52

It is highly unlikely that all 395,683 registered 2012

nonvoters in the 76 Rural Virginia jurisdictions will turn

out in 2016 and give the Republican nominee 70 or 99

percent. As indicated on the Summary of Virginia

Registration and Turnout Statistics chart on the Virginia

Board of Elections website72, the Presidential year highest

turnout percentage point gain after 1976 occurred between

1988 and 1992 – 77.6 to 84.5 percent, plus 6.9 percentage

points from a commonwealth-wide total vote increase of

351,909, but 178,342 of that number came from a net increase

in the registered voter number, meaning only 173,567

commonwealth-wide registered non-voters were added -- from

all 134 jurisdictions, not just the 76 Rural Virginia ones.

Larger total vote increases that were smaller in percentage

terms occurred in the 2000-2004 Ken Mehlman surge (plus

433,348) and in 2004-2008 (driven by David Axelrod, plus

529,702); in percentage terms, these worked out to increases

of 2.9 and 3.1 percentage points. The 2000-2004 surge

included 444,336 newly registered voters, and the 2004-2008

one involved 516,680 newly registered voters – the number of

newly registered voters exceeded the total vote increase in

2000-2004, and in 2004-2008, the total vote increase

outpaced the registration increase by only 13,022.

72 www.sbe.virginia.gov, “Reports and Statistics.”

53

The Actual Republican Lost Votes in Rural Virginia Are Less Than One

Tenth of the Obama 2012 Margin in Virginia

The 2012 Obama margin in Virginia was 149,298. In the

76 Rural Virginia regions between 2004 and 2012, Republicans

between 2004 and 2012 lost 2,600 votes in the Southside, and

another 10,672 in the Shenandoah Valley counties – a total

of 13,272, which is less than ten percent of the 2012 Obama

margin. As charted in Chart VII below, the registered

nonvoter increase between 2004 and 2012 in the Southside was

all of 176 (this is not a misprint); 27,271 in the

Shenandoah Valley; 3,466 in Coal Country; 8,298 in

Appomattox; and 2,014 in the Eastern Rural counties – adding

these 41,225 simply gives the virtual Republican 2016 ticket

54,497 “missing voters” from Rural Virginia, which still

leaves the Obama 2012 margin ahead by 94,801.

Democrats Gained More Votes Than The Republicans in Rural Virginia Between

2004 and 2012

Coal Country was the only Virginia region -- rural or

metropolitan -- where the Democrats lost votes between 2004

and 2012 – all 12,433 of them. In the 21 Coal Country

jurisdictions Democrats lost a net 12,433 and the

Republicans gained a net 18,468. The registered nonvoter

increase in Coal Country was all of 3,466. Everywhere else,

54

Democrats gained – in Rural Virginia, a total of 62,417 from

the Shenandoah Valley (up 27,318), Appomattox (up 13,069),

Southside (up 12,914) and Eastern Rural (up 9,016). The

Rural Virginia raw gain of 62,417 was 12.07 percent of the

2004-2012 Democratic commonwealth gain of 517,078; the Rural

Virginia net gain of 49,984 was 9.66 percent. In contrast,

the Republican net gain of 36,365 was 34.44 percent of the

Republican commonwealth gain of 105,563, but was outpaced by

the net Democratic gain. What Republicans gained in Coal

Country (net plus 30,901), was ditched by almost half in the

Confederate Republican Southside (down 2,600) and in the

ancestrally Republican Shenandoah Valley (down 10,672).

Republicans gained the most in Appomattox (plus 27,603), but

only 3,566 in the Eastern Rural counties. When the dust

settled, Democrats outpaced the Republicans in Rural

Virginia net gained votes, 49,984 to 36,365.

In Metropolitan Virginia, There Are 1.136 Million Registered Nonvoters In

58 Jurisdictions That Added A Net 412,051 Democratic Votes Between 2004 and

2012

The Metropolitan Virginia registered nonvoter

population is much higher (1,136,304), but these Virginians

live in Northern Virginia (NoVa), Greater Richmond and

Hampton Roads, regions where Democrats gained 465,634 votes

between 2004 and 2012, whereas Republicans lost 8,569 in

55

Hampton Roads and gained only a combined 62,152 in Richmond

and NoVa.

Is there an undiscovered missing Caucasian Republican

electorate in the 58 Metropolitan Virginia jurisdictions?

Not according to the Missing White Voter Theory -- which

predicts these voters exist in Rural Virginia, not

Metropolitan Virginia. However, it deserves review, because

as charted below in Chart IX (Metropolitan Virginia

registration and voting), the total number of 2012

registered nonvoters in Metropolitan Virginia is 1,136,304,

which superficially seems like a large pool where only 21

percent (238,623) need to be found, persuaded and turned out

– at an improbable 100 percent Republican share. If 100

percent of the 1,136,304 remain on the rolls in 2016, turn

out, and break 60 percent Republican, 38 percent Democratic,

2 percent Others, here is what happens:

2016 New Voters

Dem. 2008: 234,527 Dem. Margin + 431,795 new D =

666,322

Dem.2012: 149,298 + 431,795 new

D = 581,093

Republican New Voters: + 681,782 = R 15,460 or R

100,689

As can be seen, the Republican missing voters trump either

Obama margin, – 15,460 against the 2008 margin, and 100,689

56

against the 2012 margin, but only after creating a Virginia

total vote increased by 1,136,304 to 4,859,564 or 4,990,793,

percentage increases above 2008 or 2012 numbers of 30.51 or

29.48, four times the highest percentage gain between 1976 and

2012 – the 1988 Bush-Clinton surge of 351,090, which was a

6.9 point gain over 1988. It would be more than double the

largest Presidential total vote surge in Virginia history,

the 524,893 increase between 2004 and 2008. Thus, there is

no Virginia historical precedent for the turnout surge

required by the Missing White Voter Theory – not even in The

Missing White Voter Theory articles, which use a 55 percent

turnout rate for the “missing voters.” Fifty-five percent of

1,136,304 is 624,967, and to defeat the 2008 Obama margin,

the 2016 Republican ticket will need 68 percent; to top only

the 2012 margin, it will need 61 percent.73 Trouble is, of

the 58 Metropolitan Virginia jurisdictions, only six gave

Mitt Romney percentages in excess of 60 percent: the Greater

Richmond jurisdictions of Colonial Heights City, Powhatan

County, Hanover County, King William County, and New Kent

73 For 2012:

624,967 x 61 percent (Republican plus 381,229) offset by Democratic 37 percent (231,237) = Republican net gain of 149,991, topping the Obama 2012 margin by a raw 693.

For 2008:

624,967 x 68 percent (Republican plus 424,977) offset by Democratic 30 percent (187,490) = Republican net gain of 237,486, topping the Obama 2008 margin by a raw 2,959.

57

County, and in the Hampton Roads area, Poquoson City. The

total number of 2012 registered voters in these

jurisdictions is 137,048, and the total vote for any office

was 110,865, leaving only 26,183 “missing potential

Republican voters.” In other words, the linchpin of The

Theory is registered non-voter turnout or total vote

increases that has never occurred in the history of

Virginia.

Democratic Vote Gains and Republican Vote Losses in Metropolitan

Virginia, 2004-2012

A close analysis of actual registration and actual

voting in the 58 Metropolitan Virginia jurisdictions between

2004 and 2012 shows that Democrats are gaining enough new

votes in Metropolitan Virginia to the point that a 100

percent registered nonvoter turnout in the 76 Rural Virginia

jurisdictions would not matter, because for Democrats:

Richmond rocks – registration in Richmond City and

the 18 suburban jurisdictions rose 154,007, the total

vote rose 136,280, the Democratic Presidential raw

vote rose 107,360, and the Republican Presidential

raw vote rose by only 20,910 – resulting in a

Democratic net gain of 86,450.

58

The nineteen-county Greater Richmond net Democratic

gain of 86,450 add up to 57.90 percent of the 2012

Virginia Obama margin, and 21 percent of the 411,515

commonwealth margin shift between 2004 and 2012.

Hampton Roads is hyper -- in these 15 jurisdictions,

registration rose by a net 174,912, the total vote

rose by a 122,423, but the Republican raw vote fell

by a net 8,569 – and the Democratic raw vote rose by

a net 124,447. This net Democratic gain of 133,016 is

89.09 percent of the Obama 2012 Virginia margin, and

32.32 percent of. the commonwealth margin shift.

Northern Virginia has become the Super-NoVa in the

commonwealth -- in the 24 NoVa jurisdictions

(including the 2 University of Virginia and 11

Double-Republican exurban jurisdictions),

registration rose by 417,190, the total vote rose by

293,338, and the Democratic Presidential raw vote

rose by 233,827, whereas the Republican vote rose by

only 41,242. In the two University of Virginia and

the 11 Double-Obama jurisdictions in Northern

Virginia, the Democratic raw vote rose by 199,043 and

the Republican rose by only 21,643. Even in the 11

exurban Double-Republican jurisdictions, Democrats

gained 34,744, whereas Republicans gained only

19,599. The Republican vote is static, and Democrats

are moving in and up. The Democratic margin of

59

192,385 from these 24 jurisdictions is the

commonwealth-wide 2012 margin plus 43,087.

The Northern Virginia 11 Double-Obama jurisdiction net Democratic gain of 167,089 was recognized by the 2011 tri-Republican redistricters of the Virginia U.S. House districts, who dumped as many Democrats as possible into theJim Moran district 8 and the Gerald Connolly district 11, and kept enough Republicans in the Frank Wolf district 10 that Wolf was reelected and Mitt Romney carried the districtby a raw 4,218. The 2012 NoVA and UVa results are the Virginia version of the Sean Trende March 18, 2011 Real Clear

Politics article: “Obama Should Use "Colorado Strategy" to WinOhio”, in which Trende urged Democrats to focus on white-collar voters with college degrees, who are even more prominent in Northern Virginia than in Columbus, Ohio.

The Missing White Voter Theory Registered Nonvoter Turnout Has Never

Occurred in Virginia, And Republican Caucasian Solidarity Appeals Will Turn Off

Voters in Metropolitan Virginia

Virginia electoral history will be made if enough of

the current registered nonvoters (or unregistered eligibles)

will both turn out in 2016 and break Republican at the

60

percentage levels needed to flip the commonwealth. Most

studies of nonvoters conclude that they are similar to the

voting population, or are more liberal on economic issues

(and perhaps conservative on social issues). If the

Republican nominee in 2016 relies on white resentment

appeals to this “hidden” nonvoting (or even nonregistered)

electorate, he or (not likely) she runs the risk of

alienating existing Republican voters in Metropolitan

Virginia – as Sean Trende stated at the end of in his July

2, 2013 article, “every action in politics tends to create an

opposite one.” Trende has repeatedly noted in his The Lost

Majority and elsewhere, that adding a new element to a

coalition frequently induces existing loyalists to “head for

the exits” (this happened to the Democratic Party in fits

and starts between the 1934 election of the first African-

American Democratic Congressmember in Illinois-1 and the

post-1964 departure of most Deep Southern Caucasians).

Thus, Trende’s own coalition analysis militates against the

idea that the Missing White Voters can flip any state. In

1964, Republican Deep South appeals to registered and

unregistered segregationists flipped the 1960 Kennedy states

of Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina, plus

Mississippi, but cost the Republicans everything else.

Within 1960 Nixon states of Virginia, Florida, and

Tennessee, Republicans flipped 1960 Democratic counties full

of segregationists, but suffered decisive counterflips of

61

1960 Nixon counties in Northern Virginia and the

Shenandoahs. A 2016 Missing White Voter appeal will probably

have the same impact in Metropolitan Virginia, not to

mention metropolitan areas in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa,

Nevada and New Mexico.

Will The Missing White Voter Appeal Result In The First-Ever Democratic

Non-incumbent Presidential Sweep of All 48 Metropolitan Virginia Jurisdictions?

If Republicans make Caucasian solidarity appeals in

Rural Virginia, they will lose 2012 Republican votes in

Metropolitan Virginia and in the Shenandoah Valley. This is

exactly what happened between 1960 and 1964. Republican

Richard Nixon won Virginia by 42,194 from a total vote of

771,449 despite losing the entire Southside and Appomattox

(except Lynchburg City, Danville, and Martinsville City),

because he won NoVa and suburban Richmond. In 1964,

Republican Barry Goldwater lost by 76,704 from a total vote

of 1,042,267, even though he flipped most of the Appomattox

and Southside counties, because the combined margin in the

NoVa jurisdictions of Fairfax-Arlington-Alexandria moved

from Republican 2,643 to Democratic 39,010.74 The Shenandoah74 1960 1964 ChangeFairfax R 1,942 D 17,925 D + 19,867Arlington R 1,537 D 13,082 D + 14,619Alexandria D 836 D 8,003 D + 7,157

NoVa Totals: R 2,643 D 39,010 D + 41,653

62

Valley also flipped – in 1960, Richard Nixon carried every

county on future Interstate 81 between Alleghany and

Frederick, whereas in 1964, Barry Goldwater lost every

county except Shenandoah, Page, Augusta and Highland, and in

these four counties his winning percentages were no higher

than the 55.54% in Shenandoah, which was an 11.31 percentage

point decline from 1960. Of course, in 1960 and 1964

Democrats won Coal Country, the one Virginia region where

Republicans gained votes between 2004 and 2012.

Virginia 1964 and 1960: Flipping Coalitions

1964 

1960 

Commonwealth: R 42,194 D 76,704 D + 118,898

63

By Every Metric Inside and Outside The Theory, The Theory Cannot Flip

Virginia

As can be seen, the 55 percent turnout rate expressly

used in the Trende articles can be applied to the Census-

estimated commonwealth-wide NHW unregistered eligible, Census-

commonwealth-wide estimated gap between NHW registered and NHW

voting, and both the actual registered nonvoters in 2012

Rural Virginia and the growth in Rural Virginia registered

nonvoters between 2004 and 2012, The Theory simply does not

generate enough new voters even at 100 percent Republican to

flip either the 2012 or the 2008 Obama margins of 149,298 or

234,527 except when applied to the actual 2012 registered

nonvoter number in Rural Virginia, 89 percent of whom did

not vote in 2004 either.

Chart XI: The 55 Percent Turnout Rate Applied To Nonvoting

Populations in Rural Virginia

Census estimated NHW unregistered eligible,

commonwealth-wide: 216,000 x .55 = 118,800

Census estimated gap NHW registered and voting,

commonwealth-wide: 134,000 x . 55 = 73,700

Actual Rural Virginia 2012 registered nonvoters:

395,683 x.55 = 217,625 – can defeat 2012 Obama margin only

at 85 percent Republican, 13 percent Democratic.

64

Growth in Rural Virginia registered nonvoters between

2004 and 2012: 41,225 x . 55 = 22,673

If The Theory using its own estimates and real world

registration and voting numbers cannot generate enough new

voters to defeat the 2008 Obama margin, and defeats the 2012

Obama margin only at 85 percent Republican, it cannot flip

Virginia. If The Theory cannot flip Virginia, it is

irrelevant to the Electoral College outcome unless it flips

Iowa, New Mexico, or one of the 2004 John Kerry states such

as Pennsylvania.

Strategy for Republicans: Eliminate the Gender and Nonwhite Gaps

Instead of chasing unregistered or registered nonvoting

Missing White Voters, Republicans would be better off trying

to win back Greater Richmond, the Hampton Roads area, and of

course Northern Virginia by eliminating the gender gap,

increasing the Republican African-American percentage to 25

percent, increasing the Republican Asian-American percentage

to 50 percent, and aiming for a 50 percent Republican

Hispanic percentage.

65

In The Emerging Republican Majority, Kevin Phillips noted the

largely unnoticed Republican appeal to Asian and Hispanic

nonwhites in 1968:“. . . far from being opposed by all non-whites, Richard Nixon wasstrongly supported by one non-white group – the Chinese. San Francisco’s Chinese electorate was more Republican in 1968 than the city’s white population.”75

and that“[In New York] Richard Nixon averaged 20 per cent to 25 per cent in the Puerto Rican precincts of East Harlem compared with his 5 per cent levels in the nearby solidly Negro election districts of central Harlem . . . As for the city’s prosperous Chinese and Japanese population, they tend to be conservative and Republican. Chinatown, located in lower Manhattan, is the strongest Republicanenclave in the area. Many other orientals – both Chinese and Japanese – live along Manhattan’s Upper West Side, where once again they are more generally Republican than most of their neighbors . . . Richard Nixon carried New York’s Chinatown, just as he won the much larger Chinatown in San Francisco. Racial politics in the Northeast is more complex than a simple polarization of whites and non-whites.”76

In 2012, it appears Republicans have reverted to the stance

of the ill-informed Kevin Phillips critics of 1969. The

Asian-American vote that exit polled evenly split between

President Bush the Elder and Bill Clinton in 1992 in 2012

was 70 percent Democratic, as was the Hispanic vote.

In the largest total vote jurisdiction in Virginia

(Fairfax County77), Asian-Americans are 17% of the

75 Kevin Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority, page 471. 76 Kevin Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority, pages 110-111.

77 2012 Presidential 529,287. Its’ nearest competitor is Virginia BeachCity with 196,941.

66

population and Hispanics are 16% -- if Republicans

eliminated the lopsided Democratic 70-30 margins among 33

percent of the Fairfax County population, they might

eliminate the Fairfax County 2012 Democratic margin of

108,500, and the Arlington County margin of 46,795, not to

mention the Loudoun County margin of 12,787 and the Prince

William County margin of 28,873 – in these counties, Asian-

Americans are 9.9 percent, 16.0 percent and 8.1 percent of

the 2010 Census population, and the Hispanic percentages are

15.4, 12.9 and 20.8. If the Republicans accomplished these

goals, they would eliminate 196,955 from the Democratic

column – and blow past the 2012 Obama margin in Virginia.

With another 50,000, Republicans could nose past the 2008

Obama margin in Virginia -- and with cloned suburban appeals

elsewhere, blow past the Obama margins in enough other

states to win the Electoral College.

However, Republicans are no longer able to generate big

margins from high-vote jurisdictions in Virginia. The only

2012 jurisdictions with 100,000 or more total Presidential

votes carried by Mitt Romney are Virginia Beach City (total

vote 196,641) and the Richmond suburb of Chesterfield County

(170,988) – and in these locales, the Romney margins were

4,992 and 13,240 -- even combined, less than one fifth of

the Democratic margin in Fairfax County (108,500). Moreover,

in 2004, the Republican margin in Virginia Beach City was

33,086, and in Chesterfield County was 34,399, meaning from

67

these two still-Republican locales Republicans have lost

49,253 in margin – more than the 18,468 gained (and

Democratic 12,433 loss) in Coal Country, but don’t discount

the 3,466 Coal Country registered nonvoters waiting in the

hollows for the Republican 2016 equivalent of the Byrd

Machine’s Black Satchel Brigade.78 If Republican

strategists wish to double down on the unregistered,

nonvoting angry white male population, be my guest as

Democrats on January 20, 2017 celebrate a third consecutive

White House inauguration (the first since 1949) -- just

don’t bet on the Missing White Voter Theory to obtain any

inaugural tickets.

Chart VII: 2012, 2004 TURNOUT In The 76 Rural Virginia Jurisdictions

County Registered Voting Difference 04 Reg 04 Vot

04 Diff

21 Coal Country

78

? Frank Atkinson, The Dynamic Dominion, page 14.

68

One Double-Obama

Radford City 8,331 5,421

minus 2,910 7,247 4,900 – 2,347

20 Double-Republican

Bland 4,692 3,082

minus 1,610 4,380 2,911 – 1,469

Carroll 18,977 13,083

minus 5,894 17,311 12,162 – 5,149

Galax City 3,831 2,400

minus 1,431 3,807 2,349 – 1,458

Giles 11,522 8,046

minus 3,476 10,774 7,588 – 3,186

Scott 16,233 10,124

minus 6,109 16,184 10,232 – 5,952

Tazewell 29,062 18,673

minus 10,359 28,051 17,663 –10,388

Smyth 19,772 12,908

minus 6,864 18,689 12,484 – 6,205

Lee 16,559 9,727

minus 6,832 15,801 9,979 -- 5,823

Wise 24,280 15,204

minus 9,076 24,066 14,496 – 9,070

Dickenson 11,405 7,067

minus 4,338 11,895 7,526 – 4,369

Buchanan 16,569 9,830

minus 6,739 17,023 10,040 – 6,983

69

Russell 19,598 12,348

minus 7,250 18,833 11,662 – 7,171

Washington 36,730 25,827 minus

10,903 32,778 22,978 – 9,800

Bristol City 12,384 7,437

minus 4,947 11,166 6,905 – 4,261

Wythe 19,062 13,017

minus 6,045 17,277 11,782 – 5,495

Craig 3,855 2,719

minus 1,136 3,611 2,642 -- 969

Floyd 10,478 7,744

minus 2,734 9,408 6,943 – 2,465

Pulaski 21,772 14,753

minus 7,019 20,633 14,338 –6,295

Norton City 2,594 1,580 minus

1,014 2,507 1,527 -- 980

Grayson 10,606 7,245 minus

3,361 10,573 7,206 – 3,367

SUBTOTALS: 309,981 202,814 minus 107,167

302,014 198,313 minus 103,701

Registration: up 7,967

Voting: up 4,501

Registered nonvoters: 107,167 in 2012, 103,701 in 2004 (up

3,466)

70

17 Shenandoah Valley

5 Double Obama

Lexington City 4,135 2,787 minus 1,348

3,454 2,377 -- 1,077

Roanoke City 64,566 40,751 minus 23,815

56,540 36,145 – 20,395

Staunton City 15,791 11,280 minus 4,511

13,410 9,674 -- 3,736

Harrisonburg City 24,551 15,721 minus 8,830

16,704 11,072 – 5,632

Covington City 3,839 2,437 minus 1,402

3,741 2,359 -- 1,382

Obama 2008, Romney 2012

Montgomery 61,937 41,307 minus 20,630

45,079 31,708 – 13,371

11 Double Republican

Alleghany 10,645 7,584 minus 3,061

10,581 7,348 – 3,233

Augusta 45,721 35,001 minus 10,720

38,663 29,785 – 8,778

Bath 3,366 2,340 minus

1,066 3,359 2,323 -- 1,037

Botetourt 23,697 18,388 minus 5,309

21,152 16,024 – 5,128

71

Highland 1,778 1,456 minus 322

1,989 1,555 -- 434

Roanoke County 68,836 51,622 minus 17,214

61,888 47,315 – 14,573

Rockbridge 14,349 10,607 minus 3,742

12,607 9,461 – 3,146

Lynchburg City 54,434 36,716 minus 17,718

38,857 26,883 – 11,974

Buena Vista City 4,200 2,575 minus 1,625

3,578 2,402 -- 1,176

Salem City 17,196 12,398 minus 4,798

15,652 11,535 – 4,117

Waynesboro City 12,713 8,844 minus 3,869

11,423 8,042 -- 3,381

SUBTOTALS: 431,754 301,814 minus 129,940

358,677 256,008 –102,669

Registration: up 73,077

Voting: up 45,806

Registered nonvoters: 129,940 in 2012, 102,669 in 2004 (up

27,271)

15 Appomattox

4 Double-Obama

Nelson 10,985 8,289 minus 2,696

9,747 7,195 – 2,552

72

Buckingham 10,316 7,611 minus 2,705

8,784 6,082 – 2,702

Prince Edward 14,404 9,752 minus 4,652

11,270 7,468 – 3,802

Martinsville City 9,204 6,314 minus 2,890

8,596 5,677 – 2,919

11 Double-Republican

Appomattox 10,663 8,078 minus 2,585 9,228

6,727 – 2,501

Amherst 20,398 15,541 minus 4,857 17,791

12,924 – 4,867

Campbell 36,320 26,775 minus 9,545 30,698

23,098 – 7,600

Cumberland 6,932 5,097 minus 1,835 6,114

4,207 – 1,907

Franklin County 35,825 26,855 minus 8,970 29,683

22,352 – 7,131

Nottoway 9,368 6,908 minus 2,460

8,598 6,063 – 2,535

Orange 22,795 16,543 minus 6,252

18,362 13,145 – 5,217

Bedford City 4,027 2,850 minus 1,177

3,660 2,557 – 1,103

Bedford County 49,351 37,602 minus 11,749 41,463

31,561 – 9,902

73

Madison 9,067 6,822 minus 2,245

7,798 5,852 – 1,946

Greene 12,382 9,066 minus 3,316

9,739 6,987 – 2,752

SUBTOTALS: 262,037 194,103 minus 67,934 221,531

161,895 – 59,636

Registration: up 40,506

Voting: up 32,208

Registered nonvoters: 2012 – 67,934; 2004 -- 59,636 (up

8,298)

13 Southside

5 Double-Obama

Danville 29,480 21,138 minus 8,342

28,419 19,298 minus 9,121

Greensville 6,821 4,963 minus 1,858

6,310 4,284 minus 3,026

Emporia City 3,921 2,731 minus 1,190

3,464 2,234 minus 1,230

Brunswick 11,266 8,195 minus 3,071

10,421 7,066 minus 3,355

74

Franklin City 6,054 4,396 minus 1,658

5,430 3,555 minus 1,875

8 Double-Republican

Southampton 12,555 9,367 minus 3,188

10,717 7,558 minus 4,159

Charlotte 8,518 6,192 minus 2,326

8,184 5,556 minus 2,628

Halifax 24,025 17,489 minus 6,536

21,080 14,951 minus 6,129

Henry 36,225 25,273 minus 10,952

34,453 23,660 minus 10,793

Lunenburg 8,045 5,843 minus 2,202 7,437

5,330 minus 2,107

Mecklenburg 22,216 15,667 minus 6,549 19,181

13,007 minus 6,174

Patrick 12,300 8,648 minus 3,652

11,138 8,284 minus 2,854

Pittsylvania 42,952 31,771 minus 11,181

38,705 27,627 minus 11,078

SUBTOTALS: 224,378 161,673 minus 62,705 204,939

142,410 minus 62,529

Registration: up 19,439

Voting: up 19,263

Registered nonvoters: 62,705 in 2012, 62,529 in 2004 (up

176)

75

10 Eastern Rural

3 Double-Obama

Northampton 9,175 6,513 minus 2,662

8,575 5,577 – minus 2,998

Essex 7,591 5,717 minus 1,874

6,300 4,363 – minus 1,937

Westmoreland 11,969 8,473 minus 3,496

10,143 6,953 – minus 3,190

Obama 2008, Romney 2012

King and Queen 4,986 3,813 minus 1,173

4,495 3,269 – minus 1,226

6 Double-Republican

Accomack 23,767 16,217 minus 7,550

20,671 13,633 – minus 7,038

King George 15,249 11,420 minus 3,829

10,488 7,990 – minus 2,498

Lancaster 8,842 7,011 minus 1,831

8,245 6,333 – minus 1,912

Middlesex 7,916 6,172 minus 1,744

7,036 5,403 – minus 1,633

Northumberland 9,534 7,667 minus 1,867

8,579 6,454 – minus 2,125

Richmond County 5,768 3,857 minus 1,911

4,741 3,375 – minus 1,366

76

SUBTOTALS: 104,797 76,860 minus 27,937 89,273

63,350 – minus 25,923

Registration: up 15,524

Voting: up 13,510

Registered nonvoters: 27,937 in 2012, 25,923 in 2004 (up

2,014)

Rural Virginia Totals: 2012 -- 1,332,947 registered, 937,264 voting

2004 – 1,176,434 registered, 821,976 voting

Registered plus 156,513, voting plus 115,288

Registered nonvoters: 395,683 in 2012, 354,458 in 2004

(100% turnout of 395,683, 68% R, 30% D, 2% Other = D + 118,704, R +

269,064, Other + 7,913 = net R gain 150,360 beats 2012 by 1,062 raw but not

2008; to beat 2008, need 80% R, 18% D = 71,222, R = 316,546, Other 7,913 =

net R gain 245,324

At 55 percent turnout, = 217,625 new voters – cannot top 2008, top 2012 only at

D 14%, R 84% = D 30,467 R = 182,805 = net R gain 152,338

Caucasian only – remove 50% or less Caucasian (close to majority African

American)

Remove

50% Essex

40% Brunswick Danville City

30% Greensville Emporia City Franklin City

20%

77

10%

Majority Minority Rural

Essex 7,076 5,717 minus 1,359

6,300 4,363 – minus 1,937

Danville 26,339 21,138 minus 5,201

28,419 19,298 minus 9,121

Greensville 6,300 4,963 minus 1,337

6,310 4,284 minus 3,026

Emporia City 3,675 2,731 minus 944

3,464 2,234 minus 1,230

Brunswick 10,528 8,195 minus 2,333

10,421 7,066 minus 3,355

Franklin City 5,364 4,396 minus 968

5,430 3,555 minus 1,875

78

SUBTOTALS: 59,282 47,140 ,minus 12,142 54,034 40,800 minus 13,234Registration up 5,248, voting up 6,340, registered nonvotersdown 1,092

Chart VIII: TWO-PARTY RAW VOTE In The 76 Rural Virginia Jurisdictions

County R 2012, 2004 D 2012, 2004 Difference

21 Coal Country

One Double-Obama

Radford City 2,520 – 2,564 2,732 – 2,244

R minus 44, D + 488

20 Double-Republican

Bland 2,144 – 1,962 735 –

846 R + 182, D minus 111

Carroll 8,736 – 8,173 3,685 –

3,888 R + 563, D minus 203

Galax City 1,332 – 1,336 900 – 987

R minus 4, D minus 87

79

Giles 4,660 – 4,320 2,730

– 3,047 R + 340, D minus 317

Scott 7,439 – 6,479 2,395

– 3,324 R + 960, D minus 929

Tazewell 13,843 - 10,039 3,661 –

7,184 R + 3,804, D minus 3,523

Smyth 8,379 – 7,906 4,171 –

4,143 R + 473, D minus 28

Lee 6,847 – 5,664 2,583

– 4,005 R + 1,183, D minus 1,422

Wise 11,076 – 8,330 3,760 –

5,802 R + 2,746, D minus 2,042

Dickenson 4,274 – 4,569 2,473 –

3,591 R minus 295, D minus 1,118

Buchanan 6,436 – 5,275 3,094 –

4,507 R + 1,161, D minus 1,413

Russell 8,180 – 6,077 3,718

– 5,167 R + 2,103 , D minus 1,449

Washington 18,141 – 14,749 7,076 –

7,339 R + 3,392, D minus 263

Bristol City 4,780 – 4,275 2,492 –

2,400 R + 505, D + 92

Wythe 8,324 -- 7,911 3,783 –

3,581 R + 413, D + 202

Craig 1,757 – 1,706 830

– 901 R + 51, D minus 71

80

Floyd 4,673 – 4,162 2,732

– 2,488 R + 509, D + 244

Pulaski 8,920 – 8,769 5,292 –

5,310 R + 151, D minus 18

Norton City 895 – 768 566 – 725

R + 127, D minus 159

Grayson 4,801 – 4,655 2,068 –

2,430 R + 146, D minus 362

SUBTOTALS: R 138,157 -- 119,689 D 61,476 – 73,909 R +

18,468, D minus 12,433

Commonwealth: R plus 105,563, D plus 517,078

Between 2004 and 2012, the Virginia total Presidential vote

rose by 656,122, but only 105,563 went to the Republicans

and 517,078 went to the Democrats.

17 Shenandoah Valley

5 Double Obama

Lexington City 1,146 – 982 1,486 – 1,340 R +

168, D + 146

Roanoke City 14,991 – 16,661 24,134 – 18,862 R minus

1,670, D + 5,272

Staunton City 5,272 – 5,805 5,728 – 5,805 R minus

533, D minus 77

Harrisonburg City 6,565 – 6,165 8,654 – 4,726 R + 400, D

+ 1,928

81

Covington City 975 – 1,104 1,319 – 1,179 R minus

129, D + 140

Obama 2008, Romney 2012

Montgomery 20,006 – 17,070 19,903 – 14,128 R +

2,936, D + 5,775

11 Double Republican

Alleghany 3,595 – 3,962 3,403 – 3,203

R minus 367, D + 200

Augusta 23,624 – 22,100 9,451 – 7,019

R + 1,524, D + 2,432

Bath 1,274 – 1,432 894 – 828

R minus 158, D + 66

Botetourt 12,479 – 10,865 5,452 – 4,801

R + 1,614, D + 651

Highland 924 – 982 459 – 522

R minus 58, D minus 63

Roanoke County 31,624 – 30,596 18,711 – 16,082 R +

1,028, D + 2,629

Rockbridge 5,898 – 5,412 4,088 – 3,627

R + 476, D + 461

Lynchburg City 19,806 – 14,400 15,948 – 11,727 R +

5,406, D + 4,221

Buena Vista City 1,564 – 1,417 919 – 936

R + 147, D minus 17

82

Salem City 7,299 – 7,115 4,760 – 4,254

R + 184, D + 506

Waynesboro City 4,790 – 5,092 3,840 – 2,792 R

minus 302, D + 1,048

SUBTOTALS: R 161,832 -- 151,160 D 129,149 – 101,831 R

minus 10,672, D + 27,318

Commonwealth: R _ 105,563, D + 517,078

Between 2004 and 2012, the Virginia total Presidential vote

rose by 656,122, but only 105,563 went to the Republicans

and 517,078 went to the Democrats.

15 Appomattox

4 Double-Obama

Nelson 3,947 – 3,539 4,171 – 3,543

R + 408, D + 628

Buckingham 3,569 – 3,185 3,750 – 2,789

R + 384, D + 961

Prince Edward 3,952 – 3,632 5,132 – 3,632

R + 320, D + 1,500

Martinsville City 2,312 – 2,538 3,855 – 3,036

R minus 216, D + 819

11 Double-Republican

Appomattox 5,340 – 4,366 2,453 – 2,191

R + 974, D + 262

83

Amherst 8,876 -- 7,758 5,900 – 4,866

R + 1,118, D + 1,034

Campbell 17,695- 15,891 7,595 – 6,862

R + 1,804, D + 733

Cumberland 2,538 – 2,377 2,422 – 1,721

R + 161, D + 701

Franklin County 16,718 -- 14,048 9,090 – 8,022

R + 2,670, D + 1,068

Nottoway 3,409 – 3,303 3,344 – 2,635

R + 106, D + 709

Orange 9,244 – 7,749 6,870 –

5,015 R + 1,495, D + 1,855

Bedford City 1,527 – 1,472 1,225 – 1,042

R + 55, D + 183

Bedford County 26,679 – 21,125 10,209 – 9,102

R + 5,574, D + 1,107

Madison 3,869 -- 3,556 2,639 –

2,176 R + 343, D + 463

Greene 5,569 – 4,570 3,290 –

2,244 R + 999, D + 1,046

SUBTOTALS: R 126,712 -- 99,109 D 71,945 – 58,876 R +

27,603, D + 13,069

Commonwealth: R + 105,563, D + 517,078

Between 2004 and 2012, the Virginia total Presidential vote

rose by 656,122, but only 105,563 went to the Republicans

and 517,078 went to the Democrats.

84

13 Southside

5 Double-Obama

Danville 7,763 – 9,399 12,218 -- 9,436

R minus 1,636, D + 2,782

Greensville 1,766 – 1,732 3,135 – 2,514

R + 34, D + 621

Emporia City 886 – 970 1,793 – 1,247

R minus 84, D + 546

Brunswick 2,968 – 2,852 4,994 – 4,062 R

+ 116, D + 932

Franklin City 1,496 – 1,613 2,833 – 1,910 R

minus 117, D + 923

8 Double-Republican

Southampton 4,733 – 4,018 4,437 – 4,018 R +

715, D + 419

Charlotte 3,311 – 3,166 3,503 – 2,223

R + 145, D + 1,380

Halifax 8,694 -- 8,363 7,766 – 6,220

R + 331, D + 1,546

Henry 13,984 – 13,358 10,317 – 9,851

R + 626, D + 466

Lunenburg 2,969 -- 2,858 2,684 – 2,362

R + 111, D + 522

85

Mecklenburg 7,973 – 7,319 6,921 – 5,293 R

+ 654, D + 1,628

Patrick 5,622 – 5,507 2,417 – 2,552

R + 115, D minus 138

Pittsylvania 19,263 – 17,673 10,858 -- 9,274

R + 1,590, D + 1,584

SUBTOTALS: 81,428 – 78,828 73,876 – 60,962 R minus

2,600, D + 12,914

Commonwealth: R + 105,563, D + 517,078

Between 2004 and 2012, the Virginia total Presidential vote

rose by 656,122, but only 105,563 went to the Republicans

and 517,078 went to the Democrats.

Eastern Rural 10

3 Double-Obama

Northampton 2,676 – 2,669 3,741 – 2,775 R

+ 7, D + 966

Essex 2,602 – 2,304 3,016 – 2,007

R + 298, D + 1,009

Westmoreland 3,731 – 3,433 4,295 – 3,370 R

+ 298, D + 925

Obama 2008, Romney 2012

King and Queen 1,865 – 1,737 1,745 – 1,506 R +

128, D + 239

6 Double-Republican

86

Accomack 8,213 – 7,726 7,655 – 5,518

R + 487, D + 1,137

King George 6,604 – 5,124 4,477 – 2,739 R

+ 1,480, D + 1,738

Lancaster 3,753 – 3,724 3,149 – 2,477

R + 29, D + 672

Middlesex 3,619 – 3,336 2,370 – 1,914

R + 283, D + 456

Northumberland 4,310 – 3,832 3,191 – 2,548 R +

478, D + 643

Richmond County 2,160 – 2,082 1,574 – 1,243 R +

78, D + 331

SUBTOTALS: R 39,533 -- 35,967 D 35,213 – 26,097 R +

3,566, D + 9,116

Commonwealth:

Between 2004 and 2012, the Virginia total Presidential vote

rose by 656,122, but only 105,563 went to the Republicans

and 517,078 went to the Democrats.

Rural Virginia Totals: R net + 36,365, D net + 49,984

R gain in Coal Country, Appomattox, Eastern Rural, but lose

votes in Shenandoah Valley, Southside. R Coal Country gain

18,468, Appomattox 27,603, East Rural 3,566, lose 2,600

Southside, 10,672 in Shenandoah Valley

D lose 12,433 in Coal Country, gain 62,417 in other regions

combined

87

Chart IX: 2012, 2004 TURNOUT In The 58 Metropolitan Virginia

Jurisdictions

County Registered Voting Difference 2004 Reg 2004

Vote 2004 Dif

University of Virginia (2) Double-Obama

Charlottesville City 33,140 21,902 11,238

23,373 15,634 7,739

Albemarle 74,610 54,430 20,180

58,479 43,884 14,595

Subtotals: 107,750 76,332 31,418

81,852 59,518 22,334

Registration: up 25,898

Voting: up 16,814

Registered nonvoters: up 9,084

Northern Virginia (11 Double-Obama)

Fairfax 738,051 532,187 205,864

633,034 462,126 170,938

Fairfax City 15,795 11,751 4,044

14,478 10,651 3,827

Alexandria City 107,435 74,010 33,425

91,634 62,179 29,455

88

Arlington 168,779 118,718 50,061

130,521 95,219 35,302

Falls Church 9,402 7,327 2,075

7,544 6,117 1,427

Fredericksburg City 16,466 11,592 4,874

11,598 7,600 3,998

Loudoun County 210,452 160,698 49,754

140,293 108,727 31,566

Manassas City 22,121 15,272

6,849 19,011 12,985 6,026

Manassas Park City 7,164 4,695 2,469

5,391 3,351 2,040

Prince William 254,644 181,044 73,600

190,274 132,877 57,397

Winchester City 15,500 10,350 5,150

14,081 9,384 4,697

Subtotals: 1,565,809 1,127,644 438,165

1,257,859 911,216 346,643

Registration: up 307,950

Voting: up 216,428

Registered nonvoters: up 91,522

Northern Virginia Exurbia-Shenandoahs (11)

89

Culpeper 29,752 20,926 8,826

22,985 15,790 7,195

Fauquier 47,228 35,707 11,521

38,885 30,046 8,839

Stafford 83,444 61,395 22,049

65,606 46,344 19,262

Spotsylvania 82,201 58,875 23,326

64,449 45,445 19,004

Clarke 10,258 7,797 2,461

8,368 6,514 1,854

Warren 24,715 16,855 7,860

20,299 14,121 6,178

Rappahannock 5,776 4,373 1,403

5,255 4,067 1,188

Page 15,607 10,334 5,273

14,131 9,670 4,461

Rockingham 46,450 35,016 11,424

38,561 29,352 9,209

Shenandoah 27,450 19,515 7,935

23,125 17,238 5,887

Frederick 51,881 36,569 15,312

39,856 28,679 11,177

Subtotals: 424,762 307,362 117,400

341,520 247,266 94,254

Registration: up 83,242

Voting: up 60,096

90

Registered nonvoters: 23,146

Northern Virginia Totals: Registration up 417,190, Voting up 293,338,

Registered nonvoters up 123,752

Greater Richmond (7 Double-Obama)

Richmond City 133,555 99,379 34,176 104,129

75,268 28,861

Henrico 211,814 163,988 47,826 178,091

134,752 43,339

Petersburg City 22,518 16,221 6,297 18,986

12,122 6,864

Hopewell City 14,083 9,522 4,561

12,802 7,982 4,820

Sussex 7,244 5,529 1,715

6,617 4,423 2,194

Charles City County 5,428 4,279 1,149 4,747

3,449 1,298

Caroline 18,975 13,873 5,102

14,847 10,136 4,711

Greater Richmond (12 Double-Republican)

Amelia 8,846 6,959 1,887

7,463 5,512 1,951

Chesterfield 224,671 172,227 52,444 183,190

135,167 48,023

91

Colonial Hgts. 12,388 8,683 3,705

11,588 8,307 3,281

Dinwiddie 18,660 13,673 4,987

15,298 10,869 4,429

Fluvanna 17,453 12,975 4,478

14,828 10,956 3,872

Goochland 16,107 13,444 2,663

12,916 10,492 4,524

Hanover 71,832 59,391 12,441

61,936 49,966 11,970

Powhatan 19,112 15,633 3,479

15,301 12,283 3,018

Louisa 21,946 16,561 5,385

17,039 12,271 4,768

Prince George 22,150 16,101 6,049 18,578

13,304 5,274

King William 11,227 9,023 2,214 9,022

6,937 2,085

New Kent 13,459 11,005 2,454 10,083

7,990 2,093

Subtotals: 871,468 668,466 203,002 717,461

532,186 185,275

Registration: up 154,007

Voting: up 136,280

Registered nonvoters: up 17,727

92

Hampton Roads (8 Double-Obama)

Norfolk City 130,298 87,652 42,646 110,219

71,433 38,786

Portsmouth City 64,947 46,678 18,269 59,338

40,047 19,291

Hampton City 97,334 66,956 30,378 80,954

56,027 24,927

Newport News City 122,016 79,721 42,295 104,138

68,235 35,903

Surry 5,533 3,348 2,185

4,829 3,580 1,249

Chesapeake City 154,168 111,054 43,014 127,119

92,132 34,987

Williamsburg City 11,278 7,770 3,508 6,215

4,350 1,865

Suffolk City 58,742 43,711 15,031 46,521

32,443 14,078

Hampton Roads (7 Double-Republican)

Isle of Wight 27,187 20,946 6,241 21,594

15,986 5,608

93

Gloucester 26,292 19,534 6,758

21,900 16,475 5,425

Matthews 7,030 5,398 1,632

6,709 5,162 1,547

Virginia Beach City 303,791 197,961 105,830 264,622

177,234 87,388

James City County 53,263 41,394 11,869 40,327

31,427 8,900

Poquoson City 9,030 7,130 1,900

8,376 6,500 1,876

York 46,857 34,164 12,693

39,993 29,963 10,030

Subtotals: 1,117,766 773,417 344,349

942,854 650,994 291,860

Registration: up 174,912

Voting: up 122,423

Registered nonvoters: up 52,489

Metropolitan Virginia:

Totals: registration up 746,109 – NoVa 417,190, Richmond 154,007, Hampton

Rds 174,912

Voting up: 552,041 NoVa 293,338 Richmond 136,280, Hampton rds 122,423

Registered nonvoters up: 193,968 – NoVa 123,752, Richmond 17,727,

Hampton rds 52,489

94

Chart X: 2012, 2004 TWO-PARTY RAW VOTE In The 58 Metropolitan

Virginia Jurisdictions

County R 2012, 2004 D 2012, 2004 Difference

University of Virginia (2)

Charlottesville 4,844 – 4,172 16,510 – 11,088

R + 672, D + 5,422

Albemarle 23,297 – 21,189 29,757 – 22,088

R + 2,108, D + 7,669

Subtotal: R 28,141 – 25,361 D 46,267 – 33,176

R + 2,780, D + 13,091

Northern Virginia Double-Obama (11)

Fairfax 206,773 – 211,980 315,273 – 245,671

R minus 5,207, D + 69,602

Fairfax City 4,775 – 5,045 6,651 - 5,395

R minus 270, D + 1,256

Alexandria City 20,249 – 19,844 52,119 – 41,116

R + 406, D + 11,003

Arlington 34,474 -- 29,635 81,269 – 63,987

R + 4,839, D + 17,282

Falls Church 2,147 – 2,074 5,015 – 3,944

R + 73, D + 1,071

95

Fredericksburg City 4,060 – 3,390 7,131 -- 4,085

R + 670, D + 3,046

Loudoun County 75,292 – 60,382 82,479 – 47,271 R

+ 14,910, D + 35,208

Manassas City 6,463 – 7,257 8,478 – 5,562

R minus 794, D + 2,916

Manassas Park City 1,699 – 1,807 2,879 – 1,498

R minus 108, D + 1,381

Prince William 74,458 – 69,776 103,331 – 61,271

R + 4,682, D + 42,060

Winchester City 4,946 – 5,283 5,094 – 3,967

R minus 337, D + 1,127

Subtotal: R 435,336 – 416,473 D 669,719 –

483,767 R + 18,863, D + 185,952

Northern Virginia Exurbia-Shenandoahs (11)

Culpeper 11,580 – 10,026 8,285 – 5,476

R + 1,554, D + 2,809

Fauquier 21,034 – 19,011 13,965 –

10,712 R + 2,023, D + 3,253

Stafford 32,480 – 28,500 27,182 –

17,208 R + 3,980, D + 9,974

Spotsylvania 31,844 – 28,527 25,165 –

16,623 R + 3,317, D + 8,542

Clarke 4,296 – 3,741 3,239

– 2,699 R + 555, D + 540

96

Warren 9,869 – 8,600 6,452 –

5,241 R + 1,269, D + 1,211

Rappahannock 2,311 – 2,172 1,980 – 1,837

R + 139, D + 143

Page 6,344 – 6,221 3,724 –

3,324 R + 123, D + 400

Rockingham 24,186 – 21,737 10,065 – 7,273

R + 2,449, D + 2,792

Shenandoah 12,538 – 11,820 6,469 – 5,186

R + 718, D + 1,283

Frederick 22,858 – 19,386 12,690 –

8,853 R + 3,472, D + 3,837

Subtotal: R 179,340 – 159,741 D 119,216 –

84,432 R + 19,599, D + 34,784

Northern Virginia Subtotals: R 642,817 – 601,575, D 835,202 – 601,375 R +

41,242, D + 233,827

Greater Richmond (7 Double-Obama)

Richmond City 20,050 – 21,637 75,921 – 52,167

R minus 587, D + 23,754

Henrico 70,449 – 71,809 89,594 –

60,864 R minus 1,360, D + 28,730

Petersburg City 1,527 – 2,238 14,283 –

9,682 R minus 711, D + 4,601

Hopewell City 3,739 – 3,573 5,179 –

4,251 R + 166, D + 928

97

Sussex 2,021 – 1,890 3,358 –

2,420 R + 131, D + 938

Charles City County 1,396 – 1,254 2,772 – 2,155

R + 142, D + 617

Caroline 6,151 – 4,999 7,276

– 4,878 R + 1,152, D + 2,398

Greater Richmond (12 Double-Republican)

Chesterfield 90,934 – 83,745 77,694 – 49,346

R + 7,189, D + 28,348

Colonial Hgts. 5,941 – 6,129 2,544 – 2,061

R minus 188, D + 483

Fluvanna 6,678 – 6,458 5,893 – 4,415

R + 220, D + 2,043

Goochland 8,448 – 6,668 4,676 – 3,583

R + 1,780, D + 1,093

Hanover 39,940 – 35,404 18,294 – 13,941

R + 4,536, D + 4,353

Powhatan 11,200 – 8,955 4,088 – 3,112

R + 2,245, D + 976

Louisa 9,215 – 7,083 6,953 – 4,844

R + 2,132, D + 2,109

Amelia 4,331 – 3,499 2,490 – 1,862

R + 832, D + 628

Dinwiddie 6,875 – 6,193 6,550 – 4,569

R + 682, D + 1,981

98

Prince George 8,879 – 8,131 6,991 – 5,066

R + 748, D + 1,925

King William 5,466 – 4,397 3,344 – 2,436

R + 1,069, D + 908

New Kent 7,246 – 5,414 3,555 – 2,443

R + 1,832, D + 1,112

Subtotal: R 310,486 – 289,576 D 341,455 – 234,095 R

+ 20,910, D + 107,360

Hampton Roads (8 Double-Obama)

Norfolk City 23,147 – 26,401 62,687 – 43,518

R minus 3,254, D + 19,169

Portsmouth City 12,858 – 15,212 32,501 – 24,112 R

minus 2,354, D + 8,389

Hampton City 18,640 – 23,399 46,966 – 32,016 R

minus 4,759, D + 14,950

Newport News City 27,230 – 32,208 51,100 – 35,319 R

minus 4,978, D + 15,781

Surry 1,671 -- 1,543 2,576 –

1,954 R minus 128, D + 622

Chesapeake City 53,900 – 52,283 55,052 – 38,744 R

minus 1,617, D + 16,308

Williamsburg City 2,682 – 2,064 4,903 – 2,216

R minus 618, D + 2,687

Suffolk City 17,820 – 16,873 24,267 –

15,233 R + 947, D + 9,034

99

Hampton Roads (7 Double-Republican)

Isle of Wight 11,802 – 9,929 8,761 – 5,871

R + 1,873, D + 2,890

Gloucester 12,137 – 11,084 6,764 – 5,105

R + 1,053, D + 1,659

Virginia Beach City 99,291 – 103,752 94,299 – 70,666 R

minus 4,461, D + 23,633

James City County 22,843 – 18,949 17,879 – 11,934 R

+ 3,894, D + 5,945

Poquoson City 5,312 – 5,004 1,679 –

1,424 R + 308, D + 255

York 20,204 – 19,396 13,183 –

10,276 R + 808, D + 2,907

Matthews 3,488 – 3,497 1,807 –

1,589 R minus 9, D + 218

Subtotal: R 333,025 -- 341,594 D 424,424 –

299,977 R minus 8,569, D + 124,447

100