Towards sustainable de-growth - medical survey data as predictors for estimation of niche market...

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Towards sustainable de-growth e medical survey data as predictors for estimation of niche market value e gluten-free beer market case Joanna Harasym * , Tomasz Podeszwa Food Biotechnology Department, Institute of Chemistryand Food Technology, Wroclaw University of Economics, Komandorska 118/120, 53-345 Wroclaw, Poland article info Article history: Received 5 December 2014 Received in revised form 1 July 2015 Accepted 3 July 2015 Available online xxx Keywords: Sustainable consumption Gluten-free beer Celiac disease abstract Big brewing companies often look for sustainable resource and energy management rather than for minimization of negative social impact or maximization of positive ones. That's why sustainable degrowth in production sounds like nightmare to them. Several activities on market such as demand for product personalization force manufacturers' response. But few niche markets with huge personalization potential are still underestimated by big producers. To bridge the gap between company prots and sustainable de-growth, the useful tools for niche market value estimation, which could help in in- vestments decision making, have been worked out. The medical data reports were used to assess the socio-demographic characteristic of customer of gluten-free beer. This market is still in its starting phase as big producers are not especially interested in beer products, which require signicant investments in production process. A celiac disease (CD) is chronic inammatory enteropathy induced with presence of gluten, its prev- alence is estimated as 1:100, which suggest that 1 person per 100 absolutely can't drink typical barley/ wheat beer. The equations for calculation model were elaborated based on medical reports of CD occurrence in Poland and then in Europe; total population and adult population data in 2013 (Eurostat); the Bart-Haas report of beer production in 2013 and average prices of gluten-free beers manufactured and sold in Europe. The nal formulas of beer production increase and the value of gluten-free beer market have been elaborated. Results reveal that almost 6.5 million of adult people in Europe must comply with gluten-free diet. Value of gluten-free beer market in Europe is estimated as 3.3 billion EUR/ annual for average price 3 EUR for 0.5 l. Introduction of gluten-free beer into market will increase production by at least 0.1% up to even 1%. It is a value in range of 0.55e5.5 million hectolitres per year. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Better quality of life is the main message hidden behind various denitions of sustainability. But there is nothing less denable, more changeable and very subjective than better quality of life. Sustainable development was dened with different approaches, mostly quoted with denition is from Brundtland Report (WCED, 1987): Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future gen- erations to meet their own needs. It contains within it two key con- cepts: the concept of needs, in particular the essential needs of the world's poor, to which overriding priority should be given; and the idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organi- zation on the environment's ability to meet present and future needs.The main requirement connecting those denitions perceives the world as a system connecting spaces and time. Personal perspective can be visible only through systemic approach. Global personal need is higher rated than specic personal needs (even those forced by medical limitations e celiac disease, phenylke- tonuria). The global community takes (theoretically) rst place. The mainstream macroeconomics cultivates the economic growth as a dogma and all economic policies including sustainable develop- ment are constructed for fostering growth on global scale. Every- thing what is in opposite to economic growth is perceived as leading to recession, increasing unemployment and deterioration of quality of life (Bloemmen et al., 2015). The degrowth phenomenon arises from contradictory point of perceiving of human needs. Sustainable degrowth is the parallel * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ48 513093777; fax: þ48 713680771. E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Harasym). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Cleaner Production journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.014 0959-6526/© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2015) 1e7 Please cite this article in press as: Harasym, J., Podeszwa, T., Towards sustainable de-growth e medical survey data as predictors for estimation of niche market value e gluten-free beer market case, Journal of Cleaner Production (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.014

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Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2015) 1e7

Contents lists avai

Journal of Cleaner Production

journal homepage: www.elsevier .com/locate/ jc lepro

Towards sustainable de-growth e medical survey data as predictorsfor estimation of niche market value e gluten-free beer market case

Joanna Harasym*, Tomasz PodeszwaFood Biotechnology Department, Institute of Chemistry and Food Technology, Wroclaw University of Economics, Komandorska 118/120, 53-345 Wroclaw,Poland

a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:Received 5 December 2014Received in revised form1 July 2015Accepted 3 July 2015Available online xxx

Keywords:Sustainable consumptionGluten-free beerCeliac disease

* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ48 513093777; fax:E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Ha

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.0140959-6526/© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article in press as: Harasym,of niche market value e gluten-free beer m

a b s t r a c t

Big brewing companies often look for sustainable resource and energy management rather than forminimization of negative social impact or maximization of positive ones. That's why sustainabledegrowth in production sounds like nightmare to them. Several activities on market such as demand forproduct personalization force manufacturers' response. But few niche markets with huge personalizationpotential are still underestimated by big producers. To bridge the gap between company profits andsustainable de-growth, the useful tools for niche market value estimation, which could help in in-vestments decision making, have been worked out. The medical data reports were used to assess thesocio-demographic characteristic of customer of gluten-free beer. This market is still in its starting phaseas big producers are not especially interested in beer products, which require significant investments inproduction process.

A celiac disease (CD) is chronic inflammatory enteropathy induced with presence of gluten, its prev-alence is estimated as 1:100, which suggest that 1 person per 100 absolutely can't drink typical barley/wheat beer. The equations for calculation model were elaborated based on medical reports of CDoccurrence in Poland and then in Europe; total population and adult population data in 2013 (Eurostat);the Bart-Haas report of beer production in 2013 and average prices of gluten-free beers manufacturedand sold in Europe. The final formulas of beer production increase and the value of gluten-free beermarket have been elaborated. Results reveal that almost 6.5 million of adult people in Europe mustcomply with gluten-free diet. Value of gluten-free beer market in Europe is estimated as 3.3 billion EUR/annual for average price 3 EUR for 0.5 l. Introduction of gluten-free beer into market will increaseproduction by at least 0.1% up to even 1%. It is a value in range of 0.55e5.5 million hectolitres per year.

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Better quality of life is the main message hidden behind variousdefinitions of sustainability. But there is nothing less definable,more changeable and very subjective than “better quality of life”.Sustainable development was defined with different approaches,mostly quoted with definition is from Brundtland Report (WCED,1987): “Sustainable development is development that meets theneeds of the present without compromising the ability of future gen-erations to meet their own needs. It contains within it two key con-cepts: the concept of needs, in particular the essential needs of theworld's poor, to which overriding priority should be given; and the idea

þ48 713680771.rasym).

J., Podeszwa, T., Towards sustaarket case, Journal of Cleaner

of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organi-zation on the environment's ability to meet present and future needs.”

The main requirement connecting those definitions perceivesthe world as a system connecting spaces and time. Personalperspective can be visible only through systemic approach. Globalpersonal need is higher rated than specific personal needs (eventhose forced by medical limitations e celiac disease, phenylke-tonuria). The global community takes (theoretically) first place. Themainstream macroeconomics cultivates the economic growth as adogma and all economic policies including sustainable develop-ment are constructed for fostering growth on global scale. Every-thing what is in opposite to economic growth is perceived asleading to recession, increasing unemployment and deteriorationof quality of life (Bloemmen et al., 2015).

The degrowth phenomenon arises from contradictory point ofperceiving of human needs. Sustainable degrowth is the parallel

inable de-growth emedical survey data as predictors for estimationProduction (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.014

J. Harasym, T. Podeszwa / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2015) 1e72

way of economic growth putting the primary accents on humanwell-being not on economic growth and better quality of life withstronger social, local and natural relations. It can be seen in manyactivities of local and regional groups but also in lots of markettrends as for instance product personalization. The idea iscommercialized by dedicated manufacturing of goods, specialidentification on product labels (e.g. names) and in the broadersense in niche markets.

There are many customer niches arising for example from fooddemands which are now present and only visible but soon withinfew years will grow due to irreversible ageing of society. The nichemarket is partially restricted to the specific needs which create itbut it doesn't mean that the niche is small and unworthy ofattention. The most potent ones from the market point of view arethose related to food intolerances and correlated diseases, as those“specific demands” are stable and do not depend from trends.

Gluten free diet was developed more than fifty years ago as onlyeffective therapy for celiac disease patients. Celiac disease (CD) is alifelong, chronic inflammatory disease of the small intestine. Itoccurs in genetically predisposed individuals and is characterizedby disorders of digestion and absorption of intestinal villous due toatrophy of mucous membranes caused by eating various fractionsof cereal proteins referred collectively as e gluten. These includeproteins of barley (hordein), wheat (gliadin), rye (secalin) and oats(avenin), although in the case of the last one it is still under anintense scientific debate which differs among countries (DiSabatino and Corazza, 2009; Harasym, 2011). Celiac disease prev-alence varies in dependence from country and continents but inEurope and US in general population it estimates 1% with someregional differences (Catassi et al., 2014).

Many food products have been offered to this market as bread,other baked products, pasta, and snack foods. But as cereals are themain component of huge amount of food there are still productspresent in the diet of healthy man which are unavailable for celiacpatients. Increased awareness and improved diagnostic of celiacpatients lead to growing numbers of gluten free market products.The sales of gluten-free products were expected to total $10.5billion last year, according to Mintel report which estimates thatthis category will produce more than $15 billion in annual sales in2016 (Strom, 2014). One of cereal-derived product which isexcluded from celiac diet is beer, which is probably the oldestalcoholic beverage and the most widely consumed. A significantpart of the population, including celiac patients, considers beer asinherent part of the diet. The origin of beer (mostly from fermen-tation of celiac-toxic cereals) makes it unattainable type of foodbecause of the presence of different hydrolyzed gluten peptides.Sequence of 300 amino acids usually forms hordeins or gliadinshowever, it is known that 8e17 amino acid residues peptides canstill demonstrate toxicity for celiac patients (Shan et al., 2005; Tye-Din et al., 2010). Malting and fermentation processes alter thebarley/wheat prolamins into short peptide fragments and aminoacids (Colgrave et al., 2012; Comino et al., 2013) with immunizationproperties and hinder their further separation. Several approachesfor gluten free-beer production have been made including typicalbeer deproteination or brewing beer from malts which do notcontain gluten proteins. Detailed description of gluten-free beermanufacturing and problems was given by Hager et al. (2014) anddescribes mostly technical problems which can be overcome withappropriate investments level.

For now the majority of gluten-free beers are manufacturedincidentally as the product is still perceived as representing verysmall niche, which makes it not interesting for bigger players. Itresults in using typical beer raw material barley/wheat malt andapplying enzymes which digest the gluten down to approved bylaw level of 20 ppm. Reliable market value estimation probably

Please cite this article in press as: Harasym, J., Podeszwa, T., Towards sustaof niche market value e gluten-free beer market case, Journal of Cleaner

could convince brewing industry for paying more attention togluten-free beer market and to make real investments in newtechnologies. An additional prerequisite is the increasing accuracyof determinations of toxic gluten proteins or peptides, which mayresult that typical gluten-free beer production methods (enzy-matic degradation of proteins) prove insufficient and only rawmaterial allowed will be gluten-free raw materials. Scaling-up thisproduction won't make it the global product as it has inherentrestriction due to real human demand (celiac disease). But fromthe other perspective, responding to specific human need inex-tricably related with living, even if it is not the global scale iscoherent to sustainable development in phase of human well-being (Lorek and Spangenberg, 2014) as well as to another para-digm e sustainable de-growth. Degrowth described as down-scaling of production and consumption that increases humanwell-being and enhances ecological conditions at the local andglobal level in a short or long term (Schneider et al., 2010) fulfilsthe human expectation of delivering healthy food from local orregional producers.

European beer market is estimated as 545 million hectolitres,which makes it second among beer markets in the world (Barth-Haas, 2013). The manufacturers still expand the outlet by productdiversification according to the changing needs of the endcustomer. Some of these market subtypes are in growing phase andone of them is gluten-free beermarket, where the end customer is aperson suffering from celiac disease and also a personwho choosesnot to add gluten ingredients in daily diet. The proper estimation ofthis market is viable for all stakeholders.

Celiac disease is most common in the Caucasian population,especially in Western Europe and North America, while is not sooften detected among Africans, Japanese and Chinese. Celiac dis-ease occurrence continues to increase due to progress in diagnosticmethods and people conscience and also due to growing exposureto cereal proteins in food. CD averagely varies from about 0.3% toabout 3% of the population (Figs. 1 and 2), but epidemiologicscreenings generally show that the prevalence of celiac disease isstill about 1:100 (Czerwionka-Szaflarska et al., 2006; Myleus et al.,2009; Catassi et al., 2014).

The aim of this study was to elaborating formulas for calculationof gluten-free beer market values based on the medical surveysdata. The approach was made for estimation the developing po-tential of this type of market by analysis of the medical reports onthe detection and prediction of detection of celiac disease in theEuropean population. The elaborated equations allows to predictthe market values in terms of “not less than”which is more reliableparameter as “as much as”.

2. Gluten-free beer market characteristic

2.1. Gluten-free food definition

The term “gluten-free food” and the requirements for gluten-free food is the subject of work of the Committee of the CodexAlimentarius FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Nutrition and Foodfor Particular Nutritional Uses. Guidelines developed in Codex Ali-mentarius are a set of general food standards accepted by themajority of European countries. The document which specifies therequirements for gluten-free products was accepted in 1979,amended in 1983, and updated guidance for 2008 was adopted bythe EU Commission Regulation (EC) No 41/2009 of 20 January 2009concerning the composition and labelling of foodstuffs for peopleintolerant to gluten (Codex Alimentarius, Commission Regulation,2009).

According to the definition, a gluten-free food has been deter-mined as food:

inable de-growth e medical survey data as predictors for estimationProduction (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.014

82,2 - 821,638,4 - 383,9

5,4 - 54

8,4 - 84,5

9,5 - 95,3

3,9 - 38,6

11 - 110,1

7,4 - 74,1

4,4 - 44,310,5 - 105,4

5,6 - 55,8

11,4 - 113,7

10 - 100,4

2,1 - 20,8

3,3 - 32,6

0,5 - 5,1

2,1 - 20,7

0,6 - 6,2

16,7 - 167,4

4,9 - 49,4

10,6 - 106,321,5 - 215

RUSSIA: 143,6 - 1435,8

7,3 - 73,1

5,4 - 54,2

2,1 - 20,6

46,4 - 463,8

9,5 - 94,6

7,9 - 79,1

74,1 - 740,9

45,8 - 458,3

62,8 - 628,1

65,4 - 653,7

Fig. 1. Estimated occurrence of celiac disease in Europe as 0.3e3% of the population [in thousands].(On data from Myleus et al., 2009; Szafarska-Popławska et al., 2009).

J. Harasym, T. Podeszwa / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2015) 1e7 3

a) consisting of or made only from one or more ingredients whichdo not contain wheat (i.e., all Triticum species, such as durumwheat, spelt, and kamut), rye, barley, oats or their crossbredvarieties, and the gluten level does not exceed 20 mg/kg in total,based on the food as sold or distributed to the consumer, and/or

b) consisting of one or more ingredients from wheat (i.e., all Triti-cum species, such as durumwheat, spelt and kamut), rye, barley,oats or their crossbred varieties, which have been speciallyprocessed to remove gluten, and the gluten level does notexceed 20 mg/kg in total, based on the food as sold or distrib-uted to the consumer.

Fig. 2. Estimated size of population affected by celiac disease in different Europeancountries.(On data from Myleus et al., 2009; Szafarska-Popławska et al., 2009).

Please cite this article in press as: Harasym, J., Podeszwa, T., Towards sustaof niche market value e gluten-free beer market case, Journal of Cleaner

With respect to the above-mentioned European Commissionguidelines on gluten-free foods, a beer can be called gluten-freewhen has been made from malt which didn't contain glutenor when beer brewed from typical malt containing gluten hasbeen specially treated to remove gluten to a level not exceeding20 mg/kg. Also beer can be labelled “very low content ofgluten” when was brewed from typical malts, which has beenspecially treated to reduce the level of gluten to the range of20e100 mg/kg.

2.2. End customer of gluten-free beer market definition

The percentage of people diagnosed with celiac disease orgluten intolerance increases every year. In Europe, the number ofadults who suffer from disorders mentioned above may reach 6.5million people (1% of adult population of Europe). In WesternEurope, where the diagnosis of disease and awareness of itsconsequences appeared earlier than in Poland, several manufac-turers have already recognized the emerging market for gluten-free beer. Additionally the rising amount of awareness of glutenhealth impact leads to new consumer attitude who declare thatnot eating gluten free products will be better for his well-being.This trend is especially visible among societies focused onmaintain certain level of physiological capability (Packed FactReport, 2011).

Possible outlets for this kind of beers are not limited only topeople sensitive to gluten. Because of the health promoting prop-erties (including antioxidants) of beers produced from unusualcereal and pseudocereal malts, the number of end customers readyto buy such beer can be increased up to several percent of the totalEuropean population. Unusual raw materials (atypical cereal andpseudocereal malts) are an attractive alternative to the brewery,which is worth paying attention to now, when this market is rising.

inable de-growth emedical survey data as predictors for estimationProduction (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.014

Fig. 4. Europe production of beer in 2001e2012.(On data from Barth-Haas Group, 2014).

J. Harasym, T. Podeszwa / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2015) 1e74

2.3. World production of beer

World production of beer amounts to (Fig. 3) 1951 millionhectolitres. European Union countries in 2012 manufactured 384million hectolitres of beer, and the other developed Europeancountries e 161 million hl. European manufacturing accounts for28% of the world production of beer and gives Europe second po-sition behind the Asian continent (35%). The third position is takenby North America (17%). The smallest share of the world market ofbeer production is Central America and the Caribbean (1%), andAustralia and Oceania (1%) (Barth-Haas, 2013).

Annual production of beer in Europe in years of 2001e2012(Fig. 4) increased from 491 million hl (2001) to 545 million hec-tolitres (2012). The ratio of beer production in Europe relating tothe EU and the rest of Europe has changed dramatically in 2004 asa result of accession to the European Union of 10 new MemberStates, including countries that have a significant impact on theproduction of beer in Europe (Poland and the Czech Republic e

about 46.5 million hl). The highest level of production in Europewas reached in 2007 (592 million hl). In the last three years theproduction has stabilized and is subjected to minor changes(Barth-Haas, 2013).

3. Methodology

3.1. Databases

Eurostat databases were explored for socio-demographic char-acteristic of beer consumers and value of beer market.

The following parameters were used for the calculation:

� medical reports on the incidence of celiac disease in Poland,Europe and individual European countries (Szafarska-Popławska et al., 2009; Catassi et al., 2014);

� data on the total population and the adult population in 2013 (inEurope and individual European countries) from the Eurostatdatabase (Eurostat, 2014);

� the Bart-Haas report concerning the production of beer in 2013(in Europe and individual European countries) (Barth-Haas,2013);

� data on average prices of gluten-free beers manufactured andsold in Europe (www.gluten-freeshop.co.uk, www.liquormart.com).

20%

8%

17%

Central America1%, 17 mln hl.

12%

35%

6%

Australia/Oceania1%,

European Union 384 mln hl.

Asia688 mln hl.

North America331mln hl.

Rest of Europe 161mln hl.

Africa125 mln hl.

South America - 223 mln hl.

22 mln hl.

Fig. 3. World production of beer.(On data from Barth-Haas Group, 2014).

Please cite this article in press as: Harasym, J., Podeszwa, T., Towards sustaof niche market value e gluten-free beer market case, Journal of Cleaner

Depending on characteristic of medical report i.e. differentiationwas made for men and women in the total number of cases, alsocalculation towards the population of patients with considerationsof gender can be made. Gender differentiation is important factorfor gluten-free product designing as expectation for sensory attri-butes is different for female andmale customers (Liang et al., 2013).

3.2. Formulas

The following formulas were created for number of male(female) diagnosed with celiac disease and total number of celiacpopulation calculation:

MðFÞC ¼ AP*%C*MðFÞP

TCP ¼ MCþ FC

where M(F)C e number of male (female) diagnosed with celiacdisease; AP e population of adults in selected country; % C e

percent of cases of celiac disease; (F)P e participation of male(female) patients; TCP e total celiac patients.

The following formula was created for actual estimated annualbeer consumption attributable to one healthy adult calculation:

ACBHP ¼ BP=ðAP� TCPÞ

where ACBHP e actual consumption of beer per person in healthypopulation [hl]; BP e annual production of beer in selected country[hl]; AP e adult population; TCP e total celiac patients.

The following formulawas created for an annual need of gluten-free beer for one adult celiac person calculation:

MðFÞCB ¼ MðFÞC*ACBHP

GFBP ¼ FCBþMCB

where M(F)CB e annual demand for gluten-free beer for men(women)with celiac disease [hl]; M(F)Ce number of men (women)diagnosedwith celiac disease; ACBHPe actual consumption of beerin the healthy population [hl]; GFBP e estimated production ofgluten-free beer [hl].

The following formula was created for the estimated increase inthe production of beer through the launch of gluten-free beercalculation:

DBP ¼ GFBP*100=BP

where DBP e increase in the production of beer [%]; BP e annualproduction of beer [hl]; GFBPe estimated production of gluten-freebeer [hl].

inable de-growth e medical survey data as predictors for estimationProduction (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.014

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

≤12m. 13m.-3y.o.

4y.o.-7y.o.

8y.o.-14y.o.

15y.o.-18y.o.

>18y.o. Total

Female 5 37 126 354 327 431 1280Male 4 25 89 253 185 278 834

54% 40%41%

42% 36% 39%

40%56% 60%

59%

58% 64%61%

60%

Num

ber o

f cas

es

Fig. 5. Percentage of age and sex among patients with histological diagnosed diseasein multicenter survey of the celiac disease clinical picture in Poland.(On data from Szafarska-Popławska et al., 2009).

J. Harasym, T. Podeszwa / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2015) 1e7 5

The following formula was created for increase in the produc-tion of beer by filling a niche market e gluten-free beer marketcalculation:

DBP ¼ ðAP� %C�MP� ACBHPÞ þ ðAP� %C� FP� ACBHPÞBP

� 100

The following formula was created for gluten-free beer marketvalue in euro calculation using volume of beer production andaverage price of gluten-free beer available in the European market:

VGFBM ¼ GFBP� 100� 2� P

where VGFBM e gluten-free beer market value [EUR]; GFBP e

estimated production of gluten-free beer [hl]; P e price for beer0.5 l [EUR]; 100 e conversion of hl for litres; 2 e conversion factorof 1 l to 0.5 l.

4. Results

4.1. Value of gluten-free beer market in Poland

In 1998e2008 multicenter survey of the celiac disease clin-ical picture was carried out in Poland within 2114 patients withhistological diagnosed disease. The results obtained from 21clinics (39.6% enrolled units), showed a higher occurrence ofceliac disease among females compared with males (60%)(Szafarska-Popławska et al., 2009). Other sources indicate thatwomen with celiac disease may be up to 70% of all adult celiacdisease cases (Fig. 5) (Szafarska-Popławska et al., 2009). Thismeans that a large group of potential consumers of gluten-freebeer can be a woman with celiac disease (3.9e4.55 million).

Based on Eurostat data (2012) population in Poland amounts38,538,447 people and population over 17 years of age is 31,391,896(Eurostat, 2014). It is estimated that in Poland celiac disease affectsabout 1% of the population and the production of beer in 2012 was37,800,000 hl (Barth-Haas, 2013). Based on these data the volumeof production and value of gluten-free beer market in Poland can becalculated:

ACBHP ¼ 37;800;00031;391;896� 313;919

¼ 1216 hl

DBP ¼ ð31;391;896� 0:01� 0:4� 1216Þ þ ð31;391;896� 0:01� 0:6� 1216Þ37;800;000

� 100

DBP ¼ 381;81837;800;000

� 100 ¼ 1:01%

Assumption of price for individual market estimation has to bedone regarding several aspects of local economic environment.Assuming a price of around 3 EUR (www.gluten-freeshop.co.uk,www.liquormart.com) for 0.5 l of gluten-free beer, the gluten-freebeer market value in Poland can be estimated as:

VGFBM ¼ 381;818� 100� 2� 3 ¼ 229;090;800EUR

Please cite this article in press as: Harasym, J., Podeszwa, T., Towards sustaof niche market value e gluten-free beer market case, Journal of Cleaner

4.2. Value of gluten-free beer market in Europe

Taking into account the data concerning population of Europe,data on the production of beer and an average occurrence of celiacdisease in Europe, the average increase in the production of beerand gluten-free beer market value can be calculated.

Below estimations and results for the Europe are presented:

ACBHP ¼ 545;168;000650;393;004� 6;503;930

¼ 0:847 hl

DBP ¼ 5;508;828:7545;168;000

� 100 ¼ 1:01%

VGFBM ¼ 5;508;828:744� 100� 2� 3 ¼ 3;305;297;246EUR

Data analysis shows that from about 6.5 million of the adultpeople in Europe (1% of adult population) must comply withgluten-free diet. The value of gluten-free beer market in Europeis estimated as about 3.3 billion Euros. The biggest factor in theproduction of gluten-free beer in different European countries ishigh rate of diagnosis of patients with gluten intolerance andceliac disease, and a high intake of beer stemming from brewingtraditions. Estimating on the results of celiac adults screening,and the production of beer in Europe in 2012 (545 million hl), it

can be calculated that the introduction of gluten-free beer intomarket will increase production up to even 1%. It is a value about5.5 million hectolitres per year. Referring to the latest medicalreports, in European population are diagnosed even more casesof celiac disease. As in the case of Sweden, the number of pa-tients could reach 3% of Swedish population. Assuming the de-gree of recognition of the disease at the level of 3%, the totalproduction of gluten-free beer in Europe is comparable to theproduction of beer in Romania and Czech Republic (Fig. 6)(Barth-Haas, 2013).

inable de-growth emedical survey data as predictors for estimationProduction (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.014

ItalyRomania

FranceBelgium

Czech Rep.HollandUkraine

SpainPoland

Great BritainGermany

Russia

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

12,510 17,000 17,100 18,150 18,191

23,600 30,510

33,600 37,850

45,701 95,545

98,140

Coun

try

Produc on in 1000 hl.

Fig. 6. Annual production of beer in Europe.(On data from Barth-Haas Group, 2014).

J. Harasym, T. Podeszwa / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2015) 1e76

5. Discussion

In recent years, an increasing awareness of food allergies asso-ciated with gluten intolerance caused changes in technologicalprocesses in various sectors of the food industry. Medium foodprocessing plants started to produce food dedicated for people whocannot consume gluten. Shops and supermarkets create specialplaces and marks on the surface of the shop, where there are onlygluten-free products.

The preparation of gluten-free beer from standard malts such asbarley or wheat is technically difficult. Removing gluten from thebeer requires many operations and processes, which are expensiveand affects the price of the end product. Evenwhen gluten proteinsare hydrolyzed to peptides it doesn't provide safety for CD patientsdue to allergenic activities of several peptides from gluten. Themost bioactive gluten peptide e 33-mer protease-resistant peptidefromwheat a-gliadin has been described as capable for stimulatingboth a T-cell mediated and innate response and equivalent peptidesare present also in pure barley beer (Comino et al., 2013).

Every production volume which will be marked as gluten-freehas to be checked for level of gluten contamination. There aresome methods of gluten detection but so far only a general outlineof an analytical method has been given by Draft Revised CodexStandard. Comino et al. (2013) refers using gliadin 33-mer equiv-alent peptides for assessing one hundred of beers. The result showthat at least 90 of 100 beers have reactivity equivalent to more than20 ppm of gluten, the reference value of beer legislation in manycountries.

It has to be indicated that end customer for gluten-free beer hasnot to be only celiac patient as novel sources of malt can deliveradditional benefits (colour, antioxidant properties, different tasteand smell) which could attract new customer not only from exist-ing consumers of beer but form beer non-drinkers as well. So thereis still need for more research in order to develop an effectivetechnology of using gluten free malts. Such prospective malts canbemade from cereals that do not contain harmful gluten proteins atall as oat, sorghum, rice, corn or millet. There is also other oppor-tunity for gluten-free malts production when use pseudocereals asbuckwheat, quinoa or amaranth (Schoenlechner et al., 2008;Harasym and Pieciu�n, 2010; Podeszwa, 2013).

But to foster the changes not only researches conducted shoulddeliver appropriate knowledge but also support normativechanges. The mainstream thinking resulting from longmanufacturing tradition and economic dominance should beovercome with new scientific findings (Lorek and Fuchs, 2013).Rising need for personalization of production opens new

Please cite this article in press as: Harasym, J., Podeszwa, T., Towards sustaof niche market value e gluten-free beer market case, Journal of Cleaner

possibilities for small scale production which is more suitable forcompensating requirements without overloading consumer withunnecessary things.

6. Conclusions

Gluten-free beer production increase was considered inten-sively from about ten years. This market is still in its starting phaseas big producers are not especially interested in totally new beerproducts. This tendency is visible especially in market trends esti-mations (Advisium Group, 2014) which promote simple, notfundamental changes (from technological point of view) in productnot requiring any important investments in production process.

Actual brewing industry sustainable production for sustainableconsumption should be strongly reconsidered in case of gluten-freebeer manufacturing due to its different economic assumption andseveral growing demands observed on beer market. Among themare: demand for healthier food, demand for individual and dedi-cated food visible especially in craft-brewing boom, novel foodsource search and opportunities created by them. All those nichemarkets could be fulfilled by gluten-free beverages like beer formpseudocereals, which offer novel and unexpected benefits relatedto low-carbohydrate and high antioxidant capacity, clear sensorycharacteristic and lack of toxic gluten peptides.

The small scale production with higher investments cost butdelivering product with several values added strongly correspondswith degrowth idea. That added value can be healthier consumer,development of local economics, smaller environmental impact aswastes from smaller breweries can be more efficiently utilized forlocal purposes.

The note worthy is characteristics of this particular niche mar-ket. Induced by primary needs of health safe food can transform todeliver products accepted wider than only by CD patients, stillmanufactured with strong attention to protects non-toxic re-quirements. Gluten-free production is a natural example of prod-ucts with forced social responsibility by inextricably implementedin the product and fit perfectly in the degrowth idea.

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