Tourism has become increasingly vital in many countries as

Benedetto (1993) cited that tourism has appeared as major

widespread industry as well as many countries rely

considerably on tourism revenues in order to support their

economy .since 1950 the tourist map of the world has

dramatically changed due to increase the number of flights

across the world, therefore many undiscovered places has

emerged as a new tourist destination.

The number of arrivals increased from 25 million in 1950 to

about 500 million in 1993 moreover there was dramatic growth

in the receipts from international tourism to around 2 billion

dollars in 1950 to about 300 billion in1993, increasingly by

2008 arrivals reached 919 million and receipts 942 billion

dollars(Mavris, 2011).

Nowadays there are a great number of destinations which

located in huge different places around the world. ‘’the

destination sits at the core of the wider tourism system in

that it represent an amalgam of tourism products’’ (Fletcher,

2013:118).

One of the most visited tourist destination area in the world

is the Mediterranean region, about 100 million tourists visit

the Mediterranean region on an annual basis, spending nearly

to 100 billion US$(Mather et al.,2005.cited by Amelung and

Viner, 2006). The average of the tourists who visit the

Mediterranean estimated at 84% these comes from different

Europe countries mostly from northern and western countries,

Germany the biggest market after that comes the UK .Spain,

France, Italy, and Greece host about 80% of Mediterranean

destination(Amelung and Viner, 2006).

The Mediterranean is famous by attractive landscape, culture

heritage, lifestyle and beaches, all these factors made the

Mediterranean one of the most popular tourist region in the

world (Amelung and Viner, 2006) .However the Mediterranean

tourist industry is characterised by significant seasonality

which that means tourism in the Mediterranean suffered from

depression during winter time.

This essay divided to two parts. In the first part I would

highlight my tourist destination choice which is Cyprus

furthermore I would explore the relevance of the Tourist Area

Life Cycle in tourism development in Cyprus. In the second

part of the essay I would like to attempt to identify, explain

and evaluate the factors which can be considered as a threat

to the future development of the international tourism

industry.

There are many different perspectives about the concept of

destination, ‘from the perspective of the consumer,

destinations are perceived as those geographic areas that have

attributes features, attractions, and services that appeal to

the prospective user’( Gartrell,1994:4).

From my view destination can be any place which is people

concern to spend some leisure time at that place for example

it might be museum, casino such as Wynn in Las Vegas or in

Macau for example people go there to satisfy their needs and

wants, besides this stadium can considered as destination such

as Old Trafford in Manchester or Comp Nou in Barcelona,

besides this destination might be for education for example

Bournemouth is destination for different nationalities

students who come to Bournemouth for education.

From the supply side identify the destination as ‘a well-

defined geographical area which is understood by its visitors

as a unique entity, with a political and legislative framework

for tourism marketing and planning (Buhalis, 2000, cited by

Fletcher, 2013: 118).

As far as I am concerned tourism destination in order to

become highly demanded should offer a variety of services to

the tourists, not only that but also it must have unique

image, Nicoletta(2012) considered that tourism destination

image is one of the aspect challenge in contemporary tourism

research as well as it can be seen that images affect directly

on tourist’s behaviour.

As Cooper (2008) summarized the most basic classification of

destination which includes costal destination, urban

destination and rural destination. I hold the view that one

area can include more than two types of destinations for

example some countries has costal destination as well as has

some historical cities such as Greece and Italy.

I firmly believe that Cyprus as tourist destination is

diversified tourist area, I would define Cyprus as a place

which includes the (3Ss) sea, sun and sand, likewise mountains

that can be tourist destination in winter, in addition Cyprus

has traditional hospitality that characterize the Cypriot

people, as Mavris (2011) said that Cyprus is an island of

diversified natural beauty, golden beaches besides this

picturesque villages as well as mountains up to 2000 metres

high.

Cyprus is the third largest island in the mediterranean

covering an area of just 3500 square miles, Witt(1991)

described that Cypurs has intense mediterranean climate with

hot, dry summer from mid May to mid september and rainy rather

changeable winter from November to Mid March. As Mavris(2011)

cited that Cyprus is a well-known European toursit destination

in the eastern Mediterranean at the crossroads of three

continents, Europ, Asia, and africa.

Cyprus become a poplar tourist destination after claiming its

independent from Britain in 1960, the physical beauty and

culture heritage of Cyprus provided the resources for the

develooment of tourism wherease the mass tourism explosion in

the 1960stransformed Cyprus into a mass tourism

centre(Ayres,2000,sited by Farmaki, 2012).

Now before we explore the relevance of The Tourist Area Life

Cycle in Cyprus I would like to move on to highlight the

concept of (TALC).As Howie(2003) identified that the concept

of a destination life cycle can be traced to an article

published in 1939 in the Scottish Geographical Magazine as

well as the Butler’s model of resort development is derived

from the product life cycle concept in marketing.

.According to Butler’s(1980) the Tourist Area Life Cycle

(TALC) included six stages which begins with

exploration,involvement, development, consolidation,stagnation

Jackson(1989) declared that the life cycle provides a useful

descriptive way for analyzing the development of destination

and evolution of their marketing, Howie(2003) considered that

it is useful model concerned with the hypothetical evolution

of a tourist area.

According to Butler’s model. Cyprus has passed through the six

stages of The Tourist Area Life Cycle ,the tourist industry

inCyprus has developed since independent in 1960, in that time

the number of arrivals was nearly 25.703(Mavris, 2011).

‘Cyprus is on of the two independent island microstates and

since the late 1970s it has seen a climatic economic growth,

mainly from tourism’(Koutra, 2013:700),tourism in Cyprus was

not as essential as today, as Butler(1980) explained that the

first stage is exploration which begins with small number of

visitors.For example Cyprus has seen dramatically growth in

arrivals as Mavris(2011) cited that the tourist industry began

to develop in the second half of the 1960’s, started with a

few visitor, by 1973 Cyprus has become a major destination in

the Mediterranean with nearly 265.000 arrivals,tt is very

notable that Cyprus had moved through deferent terms because

of the political unrest and the intervension of Turkey in

Cyprus, therefore the tourist area life cycle inCyprus

started during the 1960’s when the Island declared itself as

independent country from England. What I would like to note is

that due to the complex events which occurred in Cyprus the

resort cycle started in 1960 with the first stage which

exploration.

The number of international visitoers arrivals started to

increase dramatically,as Witt(1991) explained that a strong

growth in international visitor arrivals took place durring

the 1960s and early 1970s, the number of visitors increased

from just over 2500 in 1960 to over quarter of a million in

1973.

The second stage of Butler’s model is involvement, Cyprus

passed this stage very quickly because the widely spread of

the growth of international tourism as we mentioned before.

The third stage is development, as (Mavris, 2011) considered

that the third stage is characterized by growth, which that

means improving of the infrastrucure as well as international

companies comes to involve to develop the area,in Cyprus with

increas number of the visitors arrivals, established The

Cyprus Tourism Organisation (CTO) in 1969 (Witt, 1991). The

Cyprus Tourism organisation was the driving force behind the

the development tourist sector in Cyprus.

The fourth stage is consolidation, here the growth continues

besides this the number of visitors increased as (Cooper and

Jackson, 1989) noted that in this stage the destination will

be fully fledged part of the tourism industry .

In the fifth stage stagnation the number will reach a peak

therefore economic, social and environmental impact will be

significant, in that time the life cycle in Cyprus reached the

stagnation stage in 1974, the map of tourism in Cyprus has

been changed since the intervention in Cyprus, the partioning

of Cyprus had considerable affect upon the international

tourism industry in Cyprus(Witt, 1991). As Andronicou(1988)

noted that visitors arrivals was about 260000 in 1973, that

number declined dramatically to just 4700 in 1974.

I would like to note that Cyprus has moved through two life

cycle, the period between 1960 to 1974 and the period which

Cyorus divided to two parts, republic Cyprus in the south and

Turkish Cypriot in the north.

Now we have two fundamental separate tourist destination,

first part was the south of Cyorus which was under control of

the Greek Gypriot, the second part was the North of Cyprus

which was controled by Turkish Authorities

The southern Cyprus was very successful to manage the tourism

industry in that part as a result to that tourism has become

the main driving force behind a miraculous economic

resurgence(Apostolopoulos et al,2001).

The Northern Cyprus was struggling to develop its tourism

sector. This led to each independent part of Cyprus has

deferent stages of the resort cycle, Southern Cyprus has

reached to the consolidation stage, According to

Apostolopoulos et al,(2001) toursim in South Cyprus started to

worry about the capacity as well as invironmental issues.

Boukas and Ziakas(2013) declared that internatinal tourism in

southern Cyprus reached consolidation stage in 2001 after that

year the international visitors arrivals started to decline,

in (Table1) shows the number of international arrivals and

revenue from international tourism over the period form 1994

to 2010.

According to the table, the feature that really standed out is

that the highest number of international tourists arrivals to

Cyprus in 2001 was 2696732, the revenue from tourist industry

reached to €2182 million. Another figure is that the number of

tourists started to decline slightly form 2001 to 2010 to just

2172 998 arrivals as well as the revenue from touism in Cyprus

was just €1570 Million.

As Buokas and ziakas(2013) considered that the global economic

crisis which started in 2008 affected significantly upon the

tourism secter in Cyprus.

By contrast Northern Cyprus still at the ealier stages of the

model of life cycle because the lack of facilities and there

is no serious attempt to promote its tourist industry as

international destination.

Safakli(2010) argued that although there are numbers of

problems such as undirect flight from Europe to Cyprus as well

as administrative and structural issues, Northern Cyprus is

expected to be tourist destination which provides a great deal

of tourism opportunities.

Table 1. Tourist arrivals and revenue from tourism in Cyprus

(€ million)

Year Arrivals

Revenues (€ million)

1994 2069 000

1384

1995 2100 000

1384

1996 1950 000

1333

1997 2088 000

1440

1998 2222 706

1500

1999 2434 285

1751

2000 2686 205

2040

2001 2696 732

2182

2002 2418 238

1941

2003 2303 247

1743

2004 2349 012

1688

2005 2470 063

1733

2006 2400 924

1772

2007 2416 081

1878

2008 2403 750

1810

2009 2141193

1510

2010 2172 998

1570

Source: Cyprus Tourism Organisation 2011cited by Boukas and

Ziakas(2013).

To sum up, it is noticeable that all forms of tourist

destination would definitely move through life cycle according

to Butler’s model of tourist area life cycle, I feel strongly

that tourtis destination can be a small village or a huge city

or sometimes just a small monuments such as Romans or Greek

remains.

Interestingly the number of international tourism has been

increasing year after year since 1950 due to the accessibility

to and from any part of the world,with this massive number of

tourist comes the need to manage the destination in order to

avoid any negative impacts as consequent to mass tourism.

As we mentioned before there are many definitions of tourist

destination, some of them define destination from demand side

and some defined from supply side, this differences as

consequence to the diversity of destinations.

Admittedly, Butler’s model of resort cycle(1980) was vey usful

model for managing and developing the destination. As far as I

am concern the perfect plan to develop tourist destination

should take into consideration the life cycle of the

destination otherwise any tourist plan would not definitely

meet its goals in this case.

My destination was Cyprus, Cyprus is a very beautiful

destination in the Mediterrenean, the fundamental tourist

product in Cyprus is sea and sun destination which that means

the peak season in Cyprus is in the summer, Cyprus emerged as

tourist destination after its independent from England in

1960, following that period Cyprus started dramatically to

develpo its tourism secter, by the mid of 1970’s Cyprus became

the main destination in the southern of Europe, nevertheless

the tourism sector in Cyprus had been affected significanty by

the intervention of Turkey as well as Cyprus has become

divided to two parts.

The purpose of this part of the essay was to explore the

relevance of the development in Cyprus with Butler’s

model(1980), from my opinion it would be very complex to

establish Cyprus in certain stage of tourist area life cycle,

because Cyprus has divided to two Islands, each Island has

different policy of tourism, in addition I would to note that

there are many factors which can affect and change the life

cycle in the destination, as what happened in Cyprus, moreover

in recent day Cyprus was affected by the global economic

crisis which influence upon the tourism industry.

Having explored the relevance of the tourist area life cycle

in the development in Cyprus I would like to move on to

explain, evaluate and identify some factors which can be seen

as a threat to the future development of the international

tourism sector

Generally speaking, tourism has becoming increasingly

important because its ability to create positive impact to the

local ecoomy,tourism considered one of the largest and fastest

growing industries, according to UNWTO the international

tourism receipts was US $1075 billion this amount were

generated by approximately 1035 million overseas arrivals in

2012(UNWTO, 2013, cited by Amelung and Nicholls, 2014).

According to UNWTO the number of international arrivals will

reach to about 1.8 billion by the year 2030, it is evident

that international tourism industry is very important in many

countries around the world ,however tourism industry faces

many issues such as financial crisis, lack of employees,

political crisis, terrorism and climate change,disasters,

these factors have significant effect upon tourism industry,

as Aramberri(2008) suggested that unexpected crisis which

affect considerably on international tourism are inevitable.

There are many studies about the activities of tourism, some

of them focused on the positive effect of the tourism such as

economic growth, on the other hand some studies highlighted

some factors which is influence directlly or indirectally upon

the movement of international tourism or domestic tourism.

As Cooper et al,(2008) considered that development tourism

will be affected by number of trends that outside the control

of tourism these features includes an unexpected events such

as earthquakes, hurricanes.However there are unexpected

factors which created by humankind for example terrorism,

wars, political crisis, a clear example for this the

revolution of Arabic’s spring which took place in 2011,

started in Tunisia after that Eygpt, Libya and happening now

in Syria, thes events affected significantly on the movment of

international tourism in the middle east therefore the future

development of the international tourism has become extremally

unclear.

Swarbrook(2002) mentioned that the factors wich influence the

tourism include the organisation and its resources, the

tourist product, the market, the management of the

attraction,there is no doubt that misorganisation and

mismanagement can be the driving force behind failure any

future development of the international tourism, besides this

tourism market is a major consideration to save or threat

future tourism for example the demand and supply of tourism

both are affected by an unexpected event, financial crisis,

war and terrorism.

Tourism in general and tourists in particular might possibly

be direct or indirect victims of political crisis for example

terrorism use tourists as short term object in order to have

some money by kidnapping or robbing international tourists, a

clear example for this is that in Egypt about 16 Greek were

killed by the al Jihad terrorist group.this action due to the

different of socioculture between visitors and host

communities, as a result to that acts caused loss in tourism

industry in Egypt, as estimated that nearly 22% dropped in

international tourists as well as about 30% dropped in tourist

nights and a 43% decreased tourism receipts(Aziz, 1995, Wahab,

1996, cited by Ritchie, 2009). A nother example for the impact

of terrorism was in Bali in Indonesia in 2002 Bali was

targeted by terrorists and that left nearly 202 deaths as well

as about 300 people were injured as a result to this the

number of international tourist declined from 72,806 to just

31,497(Cooper et al, 2008).

The future development of the international tourism has an

unclear picture due to number of factors, one of the most

complicated factors is long- term political instability which

is take place in many areas in the world, as Ritchie(2009)

declared that long term political issue affect considerably

upon the international tourism one example is that the war

between Israeli and Palestinian considered as prolonged issue,

although there was rising in the number of tourists arrivals

to Israeli in 2000,the conflect and a number of bombing in

that time cuased a great deal of loss in the international

tourism secter in Israeli as consequence 15,000 Israelis lost

their job.

Terrorism, has substential economic impact upon international

tourism such as 11 September 2001 in NEW York, this lead to

chang the trend of international tourism, as Arana and

Leon(2008) highlighted that during the last decades the world

has been threatened by terrorism.Therfore safety, security and

risk, these three elements are considerable factors which

threat the future development of the international tourism

industry, Cooper et al(2008) considered that tourism is very

sensitive to natural and man-made crisis .the UNWTO defined

crisis as ‘’ these events have changed the way that we travel

as acts of terrorism and war have brought travellers and the

tourism sector to the front line of the war against

terrorism’’(Cooper et al,2008:666).The future of tourism will

dependent on the high quality of safty and security because

the tourism demand and supply are completely sensitive

The second factor is climate change, Climat change is a major

factor of threating the future of international tourism,the

travel and tourism industry is considerably affected by the

chang of the climate such as increase global temperature, sea-

level rise and stome event, these are hugly possible to cause

substential bio-physical and soci economic affect(Jopp et

al,2013).

Cooper et al,(2008) assumed that it can be seen that global

climate change will be the most considerable environmental

infiuence on the future of tourism.’’climate science shows

that in the 21st century chang in the earth’s climate will take

place at an unprecedented rate’’(Slomon et al,2007, cited by

Nadal,2014: 42 ),as(Cooper et al,2008) cited that on the

supply side of tourism it is clear that the rise of sea level

and the temperature of the earth will affect on tourist

destination such as wetlands islands and costal areas

The sensitivity of tourism demand make the relationship

between climate change and tourism very strong, as Nadal(2014)

supported that there are direct effects of climate change such

as rising temperature, furthermore rising sea level in

addition loss of snow and some impact on the landscape. The

activities of tourism are diversified, some of that activities

needed specific weather such as sking on snow for example,

Nadal(2014) mentioned that some forms of tourism require

specific climate conditions such as golf tourism, cycling,

nature reserves, beach destination as well as some tourist

areas needs certain climate condition.

So as we can see that how the future tourism dependent on the

break of the climate as Nadal cliamed that there are direct

impact upon winter tourism due to the impact of climate change

for example the depth of snow cover is the most direct effect

of climate change. In the last decade the world has becoming

incresingly concerned about climate change. In the Island of

Djerba inTunisia sit the first international conference on

climate change and the future of tourism, the conference

highlighted the relationship between tourism activities and

the impact of climate change.

Amelung and Viner(2006) identified the tourism climatic

index(TCI) which that means the influence of climate condition

on the physical wellbeing of humens,as Sabin et al,.(2010)

noted that the tourism climatic index (TCI) developed by

Mieczkowski(1985) which has been used to analyse the change in

climatic resources through climate change, Jopp et al (2013)

noted that climate change will impact on the most areas around

the world as well as the whole industries include tourism

sector. ‘’climate and tourism are inextricably linked’’(Jopp

et al, 2003:146).

The question is how tourism industry deal with this issue as

Sabin et al(2010) explained that climate is extremely vital

for tourism moreover it is responsible for the seasonality in

deferent tourist areas. Some people cliamed that climate

change is major factor behind the nutural disasters such as

hurricans and Tsonami 2004.

The third factor is nutural disasters.The future development

of the international tourism can be threatened by nuture

disaster,in December 2004 Indian Ocaen earthquake affected

most countries in the region from Indonesia to Africa, there

were nearly 230.000 people dead, many coastal areas were

completely destroyed, Indonesia lost many destination areas

dut to Tsonami.

As a mater of fact the impact of the earthquake was

considerable significant, the world has seen the most massive

disaster in that time,as a result the number of tourist

arrivals in Indonesia dropped after that an unexpected event,

the amount tourist income from international tourism industry

in Indonesia decresed fromUS$4.8 billion to US$ 4.5billion.

A nother example is for Tsonami 2004, which causes

significant damage in many area in Indain Ocean,was Thailand ,

Thailand consider very successful tourist destination in Asia

furthermore many international tourist go to Thailand to spend

leisure time and enjoy with beautifull beaches there, no one

was worried about going to Thailand everything was berfect,

security, safty and no risk,however everything had been

destroyed aftermath, the infrastructure, superstrucure and

about 5,395 were deied, more than half of whom were

international tourists(Thanawood et al,2004).

Elsewhere, in Iceland the international travel and tourism

industry were affected by the ash cloud from the

Eyjafjallajokull eruption, according to the International Air

Transport Association(IATA) the cost by this event were about

US$1.7 billion, moreover the EU transport commissioner stated

that disaster cost firms in Europe up to £2.15 billion(Gabbat,

2010, cited by Hall, 2010).

Tourism is faces to a great deal of disasters because touism

has many elements as Murphy and Bayley(1989) suggest that

there are two kind of disasters, man-made disaster such as

war,terrorism and nutural disasters such as

Tsonami,Hurricans,earthquake.As we know that tourism is

strongly related to natural resources therefor tourism will be

completely damaged in cause disaster take action

The fifth factor is economic crisis,finacial crisis and

economic downswing has affected significantly upon tourism

industry during the international financial crisis between

2008 and 2009, the world tourism organisation UNWTO estimated

that the number of international visitors arrivals fell

dramatically by 4% in 2009(Wearden, 2010, cited by Hall,

2010). The movement of international tourism reduced due to

the global financial problems at global scale, as Hall(2010)

pointed out that tourism downturns is connected directly to

any economic crisis such as recession.

The world has seen considerable financial issues and the most

economic sectors were suffered from that crisis, tourism

industry was one of these sectors.The rapidly explosion of

financial and economic issue caused damage of the outlook of

international tourism industry as well as the major tourism

markets.

As Smeral(2010) noted that the global financial crisis which

took place in 2009 was the worst since the second world war

and as a result of this the number of an nuemployees increased

dramatically, what is more a great deal of consumers cancelled

their tourist programme.

There is no doubt that tourism means managing business for

example tourist companies and airline companies will loss

hundreds of billion when an unexpected event occur such as

nutural disasters, political unrest and economic problems,

Smeral(2010) argued that business travel will be damaged by

financial crisis harder than leisure tourism moreover

overnight stays in luxury showed lower value of decrease the

varage of all accommodations.

The global economic crisis is not a new issue, the history of

economic crisis started in the early 1980s in Western Europe

and North America following this the recession of the late

1990s, after that the global recession which affected

approximatly all the world started from 2008 to 2010(Hall,

2010).

Some would argue that tourism can be solution to economic

crisis in some cause, Cooper et al(2008) noted that tourism

considered a major factor of the service economy as well as

sustainable industry and has rapid growth, furthermore tourism

has ability to stand up the pressures of global economic

crisis, Hall(2010) supported that tourism seen as a

significant solution to the global economic recession, for

example in Greece hosted in 2004 The Athens Summer Olympic

Gammes which help the economy of Greece.

The demand and supply tourist both are face the financial

crisis, according to data from statistics Canada documents the

spenditure on international tourism sector in canada fell to

about 0.4% in 2008, besides this the Canadian tourism was

totally affected by financial crisis, elsewhere in Mexico the

tourism sector was affected, the global economic recession

covered almost all countries around the world, in Mexico the

number of visitors arrivals between 2007 and 2008 fell

dramatically by 0.7%, after that the number dropped by 3.08%

between 2008 and 2009(Ritchie et al, 2010).

.Now, moving on to another factor which is considered

deferent from others factors, the factor is seasonality, as

Baum and Lundtorp(2001) claimed that seasonality has been seen

as a fundamental issue for tourism industy, because

seasonality cause a serious problem such as preserving full

time employees as well as low income on

investment.Butler(1994) defined it as’’the tempporal imbalance

in the phonomenon of tourism, which may be expressed in terms

of dimensions of such elements as numbers of visitors,

expenditure of visitors, trafic on highways and other forms of

transportation, employment and admissions to

attraction’’(Butler, 1994:332, cited by Cuccia and Rizzo,

2011:1).

Tourism has deferent aspects and forms and each of these forms

has deferent affect for example the international tourism

industry in the Mediterranean sea totally depends on the

season to promote the tourist product, it is clear that the

peak season in the tourist destination in the Mediterranean

sea is during the summer time, therefore the movement of

international tourism become very small during winter and

spring season comparing with summer season, this therefore

will affect heaviley on the future of tourism sector.

Koutra and Karyopuli(2013) stated that the most tourist

destination areas in the Mideterranean are suffereing from

intense seasonalitiy due to their completely seasonal product

which is sun and sea. The challenge which most countries face

is that the business of tourism will be in short term as

consequences to the seasonal tourism, moreover number of

economic, socioculture and environment will emerge during the

off-peak season.

The most mature Mediterranean Island have almost reached the

consolidation stage of the tourist area life cycle as well as

some of them reached to stagnation stage as a result of the

extreme seasonalitiy(Koutra and Karyopuli(2013). Seasonality

is issue which must taken under consideration because of its

ability to affect upon the international tourism indusrty.

However there are those who hold the view that seasonal

tourist product can be a perfect way to save the product of

tourism during off-season, Kastenholz, Lopes de Almeid and

Andriotis declared that seasonality can offer some great time

for the infrastructure in order to recover from the stress of

the high-season period.

According to Cooper et al,.(2008) who summerised the external

environmental for tourism which conclude demographic trends,

social trends, international and political drivers, safety,

security, risk and climate chang,these factors are outside the

control which that means it will be diffcult to dear with

these factors.However there are internal environmental factors

under the control such as humen resources in tourism industry

for example the lack of human resources in tourism can

considered as sudstential factor which threat the future

development of the tourism.

Tourism can be affected by a deferent factors as we considered

before, on the other hand tourism might possibly affect or be

affected positivaly or negativity by numbers of elements such

as environment, economy, social culrue, these factors are

completely related to tourism industry and the relationship

between these elements and tourism sector have two aspects,

positive aspect and negative aspect, for example social

culture can seen as a threat to the future development of the

international tourism industry for example there is majority

view in Islamic areas about tourism in general and tourists in

particular that tourism bring negative behaviour to Islamic

countries, this make the future of tourism in that areas

nonexistent.

Environmentally, tourism can be unwellcomed by conservatives

because the possible negative impacts dut to the use of land,

deforestation, overcrowding, pollution and many other things

which destroy the environment, these can deter any attempt to

extend the touristic projects, therefore the future of tourism

might be threatened by invironmental groups,however tourism

can be friendly to the environment as well as help to preserve

the invironment.

It can be concluded that tourism in general and international

tourism in particular faces a variety of issues and factors

which can thereat the tourism industry theses days and will

possibly affect on the future development of international

tourism secter, therefore countries should take these factors

as a major consideration.

There is no doubt that tourism is a rather sensitive industry

due to its direct connection with people, therefore any

negative impact on socity might definitely affect upon the

tourism industry and its future development.

It is clear that there are number of facters can threat the

tourism sector such as disasters, terrorism, political unrest,

climate change and seasonality, pesonally I would say

political unstability and terrorism are both the most factors

can threat the future of tourism.

At no point should we ignor that natural disasters might

likely occur, therefore the infrastructure and surper

infrastructure will be extremely damaged by unexpected events,

a clear example is that Tsunami in 2004 which affected on

demand and supply side, these events from the difficulty on

the tourism secter to return and restablish a new business

again, in fact it takes many years to recove.

Undoubtedlly political unrest has a clear influence on the

future development of the tourism industry,from my experience

long political issues makes the business of tourism completely

impossible, because tourism in need to safty, security and of

course stability of policy.

Some destinations can be affected by seasonality, particular a

destinations which rely totally on seasonal product such as

sun and sea product, this kind of tourism faces significant

seasonality, for example the most destinations in the

Mediterranean suffer from the off season, this lead to

increase the number of unemployees as well as it will be there

general recession in some areas which depend on tourism.

Generally speaking, a good soluation in this case might be

diversify the tourist products in order to extend the tourist

season, in addition that give opportunity to develop a new

areas as tourism destination for example in Cyprus there is

attempt to extend the tourist season by introduce the

mountains as winter tourism.

Last but not least from my own point of view some factors are

considered under the control, these facters threat the tourism

but it will be easy to find some good soluations to solv any

problems may occur, however there are factors which is outside

the control, these will influence on tourism directly.

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