The rise of Brasil, India, China and Turkey (BRICT): which

implications for global security and for Europe?

Introduction

Framing such a complicate and vast issue is a challenging work to

do. Brazil, India, China and Turkey are 4 different powers of 4

different continent (if we consider Indian Subcontinent as a

continent) each of one are rising in the last decades following

dissimilar roads with diverse objectives and expectations. To

compare them properly we need to frame the issues. On security

aspects we can divide our research in micro and macro themes. In

my paper, I am going to analyze exclusive the macro area of the

security looking at the foreign policies of this State and how

they can implicate global security. I will on purpose not going

inside micro problems as for example illegal drugs trade. I will

analyze the main characteristic of each single state starting from

basic information as population. My research will then develop

with a quick review of economic power, passing through social

aspects as identities. The final part of my work will focalize on

the relations with Europe and World Community and I will end my

research with a sum on the possible factors of instability both

inside and outside the countries.

Population pyramids

The population of the entire world has already turned the 7

billion stage and previsions expect that in 2040-2050 it will

raise up to 9 billion of people. Population pyramids are graphic

illustration used to show the distribution of various age portion

of population in one state. They result to be a very good way to 1

compare the kind of population a state is going to have in the

following decades, it can help also to individuate the possible

labour force and military force of one state.

The shape of the pyramid change in order to how many people of

that age are in the society, the following pictures shows the

different combination of a population pyramid.

A stage 2 pyramid is the best expected for a developing country

and shows a great amount of working (and possibly warfare)

population age with the majority of people aged between 15 and 65.

A dangerous stage for the future of a country is the 4th one, this

happens when after some decades of declining birth rate the

population birth rate can not grown up to 2.2 that means the

renovation of species. This form of pyramid is the one present in

a vast majority of European states and it is caused by different

factors as the condition of the woman or the delay in the first

marriage. A common example regarding women conditions is that

birth rate in Italy started to decline speedily after 1971 the

year in which the Italian “Corte di Cassazione” cancelled the

article 553 of penal code that banned the contraceptive pill.

A first compulsory step in my research is to compare and describe

the pyramids of our states.

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China:

China’s population as showing by the graph already has

encountering some problems regarding his population. The one-child

policy of 1979 produced a gap between the actual generation and

the past one. A drastic fall in the birth rate in the ’80’s and

90’s it is producing an absence of young people and this will hit

the future economy of China. In fact if we look at the 2050

prediction the number of people in working age is extremely

decreasing in comparison with people aged over 60 that should

(theoretically) not work anymore in 2050. This population gap will

not be filled in the next decades even because the one-child

policy seems to have caught even the minds of the medium Chinese

people. Always remembering that China is a big power a future of

difficult with population management should not be forget.

India:

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India is actually the second largest population country in the

world with an estimated population of 1.200.000.000 people just

some million people lower than China with 18.3% of the total of

the world. If we analyze its population pyramids of 2015 and 2050,

we can simply note that India is shifting from a dimension of the

first stage to the second stage of population growth. Its

demographic window is opening in the next decades and India is

going to have an huge number of working (or warfare) age

population for many years to go.

Brazil:

As for China, Brazil population is going to reduce strongly in the

next decades, but in contrary to Chinese situation this is caused

not by planning policies of the government but by education of

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population and transition from a developing country to a developed

one. Brazil will suffer a gap between generation but not so big as

Chinese one, its demographic window by the way is opening right

now and Brazil could not waste this opportunity in terms of

working age rate of its population.

Turkey:

Turkey’s pyramids show a great opportunity for the Euro-Asiatic

country that will continue to produce progeny in the yet to come

years due to his big birth rate that is actually around 2.8 child

per couple.

Economic power (with GDP)

Graphs showed below are really interesting to compare different

GPD and economic power. We do have to pay attention to the scale

on the right and left of the images to not forget we are

discussing about countries of unequal dimensions. Even if they are

countries with economics that are distant in term of GDP our

interest is to focalize in trends of the countries’ business. As

we can see China is growing very fast in relation with the others

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countries examinated. Its growth is reducing from the 10% annual

growth of the last decade but it’s still really high with 7.30

annual rate and representing the 14.90% of the world economy.

Indian growth is increasing from 4.70 annual rate of 2012 to 5.30

of 2013 and we can see from the graph that its grow is constant.

One thing to underline in Indian economy is that in relation of

its huge population it produce just the 3.03% of the world

economy.

Brazilian economy is in danger following the expectation of the

graph and according to a vast majority of economist. Its main

problem is that how occurred in Italy in the 70ies and 80ies the

government is spending great amount of money in unproductive

policies as welfare but without well planning it. This can be

showed by the actual period of recession that Brazil is facing

that started in 2012 and it is just in a minimum part linked with

the recesssion in OCSE countries.

A country that experienced the problem of recession but fighted it

well thanks to its demographic window and even to productive

policies of the government is Turkey. As we can see from the graph

below Turkey’s economy faced the crisis in 2008-2009 restarting to

grow at 3% of annual rate from 2011.

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Identity issues

As identity issues we can divide among religious issues,

nationalistic issues and social issues. China for example as the

cradle of Taoism, Buddhism and Confucianism has a vast majority of

people that follow these teachings of religion-philosophical

traditions in folks religion. Religion in the society seems to be 7

important but not in a political way. An exception in this

exposition is the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region where the

majority of people are Sunni Muslims and this creates some

problems in the region that will be discussed in the following

paragraph. Nationalism in China can be a decisive factor regarding

the possibility of danger that China can cause at the

international Community. Nationalism when unifies with irredentism

and chauvinism can took the worst of the man being and reverse on

war. China’s nationalism nowadays fortunately seems to not be

oriented to chauvinism. Irredentism is always present with the

question of Taiwan (official Republic of China) that seems to have

been frozen since the recognition of People’s Republic of China by

the US in 1979. The islands issue of the China’s sea will be

developed in the paragraph regarding international issues of

instability.

Summing, we can conclude that nationalism not seems to be

dangerous as it is growing in China, especially because of the

residual of the polity of criticize Han chauvinism of Mao Zedong

in 1956 that is always present in the communist party in China.

Even in constitution of China of 1982 is underlined that China is

a "unitary multiethnic state created jointly by the people of all

its nationalities" and that "it is necessary to combat big ethnic

group chauvinism, mainly Han chauvinism, and to combat local

ethnic nationalist chauvinism." China’s social issue can result to

be a dangerous problem in the future according to politics

analyzers. The gap between rural and cities areas is highly

deepening and it is calmed just thank to the unity of the

Communist Party that rules over China. Another social problem in

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the future of China would be the already mentioned Uyghur issue

that will affect for sure the future of the Red State because of

its combustion between religious, social and identity issue.

Even India’s religious issues can be discussed as Chinese one, in

fact even if in Indian history religion always played a

fundamental role, religious diversity and religious tolerance are

both established in the country by the law and costumes.

Polytheists’ religions in India have always accepted even

monotheists religion as Christians and Muslims, freedom of

religion is also a fundamental right according to the Indian

Constitution. Religion so does not seem a danger for the future of

stability of the country. Indian nationalism as religion issues

seems to be present in everyday life of Indian citizen but can in

future be a problem in international context as represented by the

Marò case involving 2 Italians marines. This case can be viewed in

fact as a form of nationalism and was used even as political arm

from both the candidates of R. Modi and R. Gandhi in their speech

for the Indian general election of 2014. With the win of Modi and

his Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian People’s Party) the nationalism

appears as one of the main way to achieve the goals of the party.

At the moment nationalism in India seems to be just a protective

one with defensive measures of nationalism as the last anti-

terrorism law of 2012, if it will turn in a more offensive and

irredentist movement this would create a serious factor of

instability especially in the northern borders with China and

Pakistan. Even India as a serious problem in social gap but this

will not affect by now the international area of policies of

India. International trade, commerce and remittance of Indian

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emigrated in other countries helps to reduce this gap, and it will

be strength the link with other countries more than affect them.

Brazil has a high adherence level of religion people but the 80%

are Christians, just a few percentage of people profess another

religion with the Brazilian Republican Constitution that protects

other religion. Brazil is also famous for its inclination to

syncretism, due to this factors we can assume that religion is not

a matter for security in Brazil. Nationalism too seems to be just

defensive.

Even though Brazil passed through many decades dictatorship, this

dictatorship never appeared to be irredentist nor to use

nationalism as a weapon outside the country. The last war to

redefine borders in Brazil results to be the Acre

War in 1899-1903. In social context Brazil has showed the entire

world the danger of having a huge social gap during the last FIFA

World Cup organized in the country in June 2014. The protests

started in 2012, continued until the end of the manifestation, and

have been guided by economics impulses. Social integration in

Brazil seems to be a major issue of danger for the country and can

bring to internal problems that nowadays however does not appears

to be related to international context.

Turkey’s relations with religion in the lasts years has been

enough complicated. Being a secular state, since it was founded by

Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, in 1923 results not enough to be considered

a laic state. With an official population of the 90% of Muslims,

according to the Turkish government, and only 3 other religions

recognized Turkey until now did not have significant cases of

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discrimination that can led by reflex an instability in the

region. The unity of the religion and the relative secularization

of the faith brought to the marginalization of the extreme

fraction of the religion and even though Turkey has a border in

common with the ISIS new state until now seemed to be enough

resistant to the penetration of possible Islamic jihadists.

Another pillar of the secular Turkish state founded in 1923 was

the nationalism that used to be intended as a defensive one to

keep unified the new state after the fall of Turkish Empire.

Nowadays the nationalism risks to confluence in a Neo-Ottomanism

or a Pan-Islamism vision of the international relations. The new

premier Ahmet Davutoglu in fact as a former Minister of Foreign

Affairs in his speech mentioned a new role of Turkey in its area

to get finally a “Pax Ottomana”, he also poke of developing a

closer union between former Ottoman lands, though stated that

territorial claims would never rest on historical borders. Turkey

can be a stabilization arm in the area if the moderate Islamic

parties will continue to keep it unified and to exclude the

extremist Sunni fraction as Isis militant. Social issue in Turkey

is highly related with the Kurd ethnic people that since centuries

are demanding for independence or at least more autonomy. It is

not simple to judge how this will affect the foreign policies of

the country but it will be for sure a determinant for the future

of stability of the region, especially now with the Isis-Kurd

conflict at the southern border.

International issues of instability

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The main question we have to ask ourselves before starting

discussing about international security of this group of state is

the following one. Do they contest the status quo?

A question like this can serve to better underline the position of

each State.

China is the main power contesting the status quo in Asia. Its

growing power is focusing its attention on South China Sea waters

and Japan. As the summary of dispute shows below China has many

maritime dispute with all its neighborhoods all concerning islands

and territorial waters in South China Sea waters. These waters are

important for what is under it, it assumed in fact that South

China Sea is plenty of oil resources and would be even a good area

where practice fracking. China policy at regard seem to be clearly

passed from the victim mentality (shouhai zhe xintai) to the great

power mentality (da gou xintai). The other state in the region

seems to have just few possibilities to face the expansion of

China in South China Sea, the key pass through the position of

United States of America that will decide how to act. Until now

the position of United States seems to be attendant, US itself

still views China as more an opportunity than a threat. Some

American authors see the perception of a stronger China for a

stronger Region as the best possible future.

China is modernizing its army but numbers show that its defense

spending remains at the 8% of its total government spending. Its

total defense spending in 2007 was 139$ billion slightly less than

just the budget for the US Navy of 147$ billion. China can not be

a competitor for USA in military strength by now but it is of sure

the major power in the region. In an international context China 12

can continue on its path to a complete socialization in the world

community, it must be remembered that China has since 1979 a

permanent seat in the Security Council of the United Nation. Even

thought China prefers to act by bilateral by tradition in the year

2014 two important agreements seems to have changed the position

of China in the international context. The first one regards the

International Community itself: by the Climate Accord of November

17th, 2014 the PRC and USA agreed on one critical issues of

international community, the reduce in emission of CO2. This

agreement show the wills of China of not be out of the major

international decisions and its will to collaborate in every

important question of the world. A collaboration between USA and

China seems possible by this minor step that will lead in the

future to important historical changes.

The second critical episode that shows a will in the intention of

China to collaborate in an international context is the strategic

partnership signed in 1985 with the UE and that is strengthening

in this year. Even though the human rights issue slows it, the

strategic cooperation led this year to an important meeting, the

1st EU-China Dialogue on Defense and Security held in Beijing in

October 2014. Chairman of the EU Military Committee General

Patrick de Rousiers visited China and how declared at the press

statement “It was agreed on that occasion - based on the good

cooperation so far - to raise the level of EU-China dialogue and

cooperation on defense and security". The implementation of the

EU-China 2020 Strategic Agenda for Cooperation agreed by both

sides at the 2013 EU-China Summit is a sure path towards good

relations between China and UE.

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Summary of dispute in South East Asia

Area of dispute

Brun

ei

Chin

a

Indone

sia

Malays

ia

Philipp

ines

Taiwa

n

Vietna

m

The nine-dash line area ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Maritime boundary along

Vietnamese coast✔ ✔ ✔

Maritime boundary north of

Natuna Islands✔ ✔ ✔

Maritime boundary north of

Borneo✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Maritime boundary off Palawan

and Luzon✔ ✔ ✔

Islands in southern South

China Sea✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Islands in northern South

China Sea✔ ✔ ✔

India’s relation with international community are stable since 15

years, the UN withdrew the sanction for the military nuclear

program on September 2001. Despite being the world’s third-largest

military power in the world with 1.325.000 active military, it

must to be remember that this number has to be compared with the 14

demography of this sub-continent. If we compare it the number of

active military per 1000 capita fall to 1.1 very low compared to

US 4.4 and Russian 5.3. Even China has a major number of troops

compared to inhabitants with 1.7 military per 1000 capita. The

percentage of GDP that goes on defense budget is low comparing to

the other States analyzed, in fact just the 2.4% of GDP has been

used for military reasons as shown by the table below.

% of GDP spent in defense from 2010 to 2014

China 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1

India 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4

Brazil 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4

Turkey 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3

The scaring number in Indian figures is the number of paramilitary

forces that stables around 2.3 million overlapping the Chinese

forces of 1.1 billion. Despite this huge amount of military

forces, the Indian government seems to be well integrated in the

International Community. The Indian government after having

participate at “The War on Terror” actively entertain nowadays

well relations with all states of international community. In his

maiden speech in front of the United Nation Modi called again for

the reform of the Security Council and for a siege for India. In

the last G20 summit in Australia, the Prime Minister of the UK

David Cameron underlined that India is the top priority State to

entertain relations for the UK. At the last BRICS summit held in

Fortaleza on July 2014 Brazilian and Indian government put the

base for the New Development Bank.

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All these events in which India participated, show a great will in

Indian democracy to participate in the future global government of

the World.

Indian foreign policy is not just agreements and victories. 3

important cases impact on the future relations of the biggest

democracy in the world. The first one is the so-called Marò

dispute with the Italian government that discredits the Indian

diplomacy towards Italy and even towards EU.

The second important case is Kashmir dispute with Pakistan, in

fact talking about status quo we can not forget this issue.

Kashmir conflict dates back at the first day of independence of

India and collected yet three wars the last of one in 1999. The

last events are really recent, in October 2014 in fact Indian and

Pakistani troops traded gunfire killing at least four civilians

and highly the tension level at the border. A new conflict between

the two power could be a great danger for the entire International

Community and could destroy all the efforts that India did to

being fully accepted. The government of India does not seem to act

not rationally on this delicate question but for a conflict that

least since 67 years a new breakdown at the moment with two states

that are now nuclear armed would be a catastrophe for the

International Community.

The same can be said for the third ongoing dispute at the border

of India, the Sino-Indian conflict in the northern border appears

just to be frozen from 1996 with the signing of the Sino-Indian

Bilateral Peace and Tranquility Accords, agreements to maintain

peace and tranquility along the Line of Actual Control. Even

though a war between India and China does not seem to be possible 16

for the economic link that strengthen the partnership. The

relationship between India and China has never been too strong in

modern times, though the bilateral trade is expected to touch $1

Trillion by 2050. There have also been speculations on Indian side

on how to tackle the rising trade deficit with China, which

currently stands up at $40 Billion.

Brazilian situation and relations with the International Community

appears similar to the Indian one. As one of the major emerging

power in the world, even Brazil is pushing the international

community to change some rules in it. Brazil is asking for a

permanent seat at the Security Council of the UN and is dealing

for the reform inside the World Bank Group. Indian-Brazil

bilateral relations are an example of BRICS cooperation to achieve

goals. In the last decades, Brazil presented itself to the

international community as a trustable partner for multilateral

decisions. It hosted many important summit as the Rio Summit on

the Earth of 1992 and 2012 and international sports event as the

Fifa World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games in Rio in 2016.

Brazil, as already said, did not enter in an armed conflict

(except for the two world wars) since Acre War in 1899-1903. It is

actually not involved in any conflict; the only two actual

disputes are frozen and are about two small section of the border

with Uruguay on the Quaraì River, and an Antartica area dispute

that dates back on 1986 with UK and Argentine but it never created

diplomatic problems.

Brazil has never contested the status quo geographically but just

officially within the international organizations. Economically it

is an important import-export partner for both Europe and US even 17

though is trying to close some lux wealth with local import taxes.

The lessening in the budget % of the GDP from 1.6% to 1.4%

demonstrate that Brazil is trying to context the status quo just

from a legal and diplomatic point of view not arming is troops

even for deterrence.

A most problematic relation with the International Community is

the Turkey’s one. Turkey as a member of NATO since 1952 is the far

eastern state inside the NATO and the only one that does not have

a majority of Christians in its population. Turkey also is trying

to put the issue for a reform of the UN Security Council as the

principal theme in ONU and is part of almost all the International

Convention of the UN.

Security issues with Turkey are always on the agenda

unfortunately, it are caused principally because Turkey is located

in a geographical position between Europe and Asia. This near east

position takes Turkey in a cultural conflict both with the Arab

world and the Europe one.

Starting for the Security implications in the European Union it

has to be underlined that EU blocked the accession of Turkey after

years of negotiates. EU in fact express its concern regarding

human rights and the Cyprus question. The island of Cyprus has

been occupied by Turkish troops since 1974 and negotiation lasting

since 40 years did not bring to a change of the status quo. The

Northern Cyprus Republic is not recognized by any state in the

World Community and make the negotiation not going anywhere.

Cyprus conflict is a serious danger for the future of Turkey’s

relations with EU.

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On the other front, as already described, the new premier Ahmet

Davutoglu wants to follow the old principles of Pan-Islamism and

Neo-Ottomanism. It will not be simple to strength solid links with

the neighborhood for Turkey. After the civil war in Syria in fact

the south eastern border of Turkey is menaced by the ISIS fighting

in these days in Kobane at just few meters from Turkey’s

territory. Turkish government put its tanks just in front the

border but did not moved against ISIS. This is happening because

the major preoccupation of the Turkish government is related to

the possible claims of the Kurdish ethnic group now fighting for

Kobane and living among the borders even in Turkish territory.

Kurds in Turkey organized since 1978 an armed force called PKK to

create a Kurdish state in the south-east area of Turkey. The Kurd

situation actually is the most sensible one for the future of the

Turkey Security. Turkey can be weapon in the hand of Europe that

can use it as a key to conquer the hearts and the minds of middle

east. But as all the weapon it can even rebound on and create

Security matters and complication in a delicate area.

Conclusions

The international security is based on the way states see the

international arena. The 4 states we analyzed act every day in the

international arena in various ways and with many goal to achieve.

The national security dilemma is present more in Turkey and India

than in China or Brazil.

Threat to the international security after all that I said can

come from a revisionism of the maritime borders of China, the

islamisation of Turkey or the radicalization of the conflict in

the Kashmir region for Turkey. Brazilian case does not seem to be 19

a danger in proper international macro security issues, even if

the persistent social gap in some areas could bring effect in the

future even outside the country especially regarding trade and

commerce.

The growth of these four ascending powers can be, with the due

efforts, absorbed by the International Community with the proper

measures of each single case.

Every single claim of these State should not be neglected by the

major actual powers and for sure the power in the future should be

a little rebalanced to at least meet some of the expectations of

this emerging powers. Honors and charges have to be shared in the

future to continue on the path of the International Cooperation

already shown by this text.

To conclude, Europe has to take care of Turkey and possibly to

restart negotiation even not for the membership but at least for a

stronger cooperation. Turkey in fact that can be the bridge for

normalizing the relations with the hot core of the Islamic part of

the world.

Cristian Barbieri

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