Rumsfeldian Atheism

Content

Rumsfeldian Logic Conspiracy Theories and Doubt. Brian L. Keeley’s “God as the Ultimate Conspiracy Theory.”

Leon Festinger and Great Disappointment.

Rumsfeldian Atheism.

“Now what is the message there? The message is that there are known ‘knowns.’ There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know. So when we do the best we can and we pull all this information together, and we then say well that’s basically what we see as the situation, that is really only the known knowns and the known unknowns. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns.It sounds like a riddle. It isn’t a riddle. It is a very serious, important matter.There’s another way to phrase that and that is that the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. It is basically saying the same thing in a different way. Simply because you do not have evidence that something exists does not mean that you have evidence that it doesn’t exist. And yet almost always, when we make our threat assessments, when we look at the world, we end up basing it on the first two pieces of that puzzle, rather than all three.”

6 June 2002(http://www.nato.int/docu/speech/2002/s020606g.htm)

Rumsfeldian Categories (using the Rumsfeldian context of

possible WMDs in Iraq) Known Knowns: Things they we know exist.

(Chemical and Biological Weapons manufacturing)

Known Unknowns: Things they we know we don’t know. (The development of Chemical and Biological Weapons for the purpose of selling to American enemies, such as terrorist organizations)

Unknown Unknowns: Thing we don’t know we don’t know. (Are there Weapons Manufacturing we don’t know about just yet—are there threats we may not have perceived yet?)

Known KnownsThings we know we know from

previous inspections

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Chemical Previous Chemical Use

(https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd/Iraq_Oct_2002.htm#07)

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Biological Biological Weapons Testing

(https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd/Iraq_Oct_2002.htm#07)

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Nuclear Ballistic

(https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd/Iraq_Oct_2002.htm#07)

Known UnknownsThings we know we don’t know

after September 11th

“Evidence” of Weapons of Mass Destruction

Chemical Biological

(https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd/Iraq_Oct_2002.htm#07)

Known Knowns and Known UnknownsKnown Knowns:

Iraq used Chemical Weapons (mustard/nerve agents) against the Iranians and Kurds between 1983 and 1988, as well as tested Biological Weapons which were to be destroyed (anthrax, aflatoxin, botulinum) between 1988 and 1991.

Iraq also continuously tried to establish un-sanctioned nuclear weapons manufacturing facilities, as well as enhanced their soviet scud missiles and launching towers for longer-range attacks.

Known Unknowns: Do the structures provided in the satellite imaging showevidence enough to warrant military action against the nation?

Unknown Unknowns

What don’t we know about what we don’t already know?

The Conspiratorial Essence of Rumsfeldian Theory

1. Not having the evidence to support the existence of something is not the same as accepting that that something does not exist.

2. We must leave ourselves open to the possibility that that thing of which we have no evidence for its existence is still able to exist.

3. “The absence of evidence is not the evidence of Absence.” (Sagan and Druyn, “The Demon Haunted World,” 213)

A stipulated Atheism. For the purpose of this presentation the term

“Atheism” will be stipulated thus: A contemporary self-identifier An explicit a-theism counter to the theistic belief and

veneration of the God-character of contemporary monotheistic Christianity and Islam

Based on a lack of empirical evidence to support the existence of the God-Character in these theisms, as promoted by the Hanson-Scriven Thesis and contemporary Atheist writers such as : Harris 2004: “We can believe a proposition to be true only because something in our experience, or in our reasoning about the world, actually speaks to the truth of the proposition in question,” The End of Faith, 62.

Dawkins 2006: “Temporary Agnosticism in Practice, is the legitimate fence-sitting where there really is a definite answer, one way or the other, but we so far lack the evidence to reach it, The God Delusion, 70.

Hitchens 2007: “what can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence,” God is Not Great, .

Stenger 2010: “Even the most pious believer has to admit that there is no scientific evidence for God or anything else supernatural.” The Absence of Evidence is the Evidence of Absence, Huffington Post, 14 August 2010.

This stipulation will benefit this presentation by contextualizing the term into a contemporary context, thus separating it from its myriad of historical interpretations., as well as from the term “Agnostic.”

Brian L. Keeley’s “God as the Ultimate Conspiracy Theory”

• Man’s relationship with God divided between credible and incredible. •Follow-up of his “On Conspiracy Theories.”• Argues for agnosticism over Atheism when examining unknown and seemingly un-testable phenomena. • Stipulated definition of “Conspiracy Theory :”

• “a proposed explanation of some historical event (or events) in terms of the significant causal agency of a relatively small group of persons—the conspirators—acting in secret.” (Keeley, 2007, 140)

• “God” is not so much a “known unknown,” but rather an “unknown unknown” due to God’s providential nature.• This providential nature is more “inscrutable” than “secret” thus equating God as outside the realm of something man may know he does not know. • Supports his argument on the argument of he 6th Century philosopher Boethius, who believed evil did not exist, but was rather a result of man’s myopic view of his place in the world. (Keeley, 139) • God’s plan is ultimately unknown to mankind, a representation of the old axiom that God works in mysterious ways.• To support this argument, Keeley turns to N. Russell Hanson’s scientific epistemological thesis.

Brian L. Keeley Pitzer College

Boethiusprison

Keeley vs. N. Russell Hanson• Hanson’s Atheist Dilemma:

1. “The agnostic agrees with the Atheist that there isn’t sufficient evidence to reasonably support the claim that God exists.”

2. “The agnostic agrees with the theist that there isn’t sufficient evidence to support the claim that God doesn’t exist.” (Keeley, 142)

• “The policy of demanding formal proof of the case of non-existence claims leads to absurdity.” (Keeley, 142)

• We cannot know that a “blue brontosaurus does not exist in Brazil” in the same way that we cannot empirically prove that God does not exist.

• Hanson-Scriven Thesis:• For any rational subject S and any positive existence claim

P, if S is in possession of no good evidence or any other positive epistemic ground for thinking that P is true, then S ought to adopt the cognitive relation to P of denial. (Hanson, 1971, 219)

• Keeley promotes “agnosticism” toward God’s mysterious (conspiratorial) nature.• Rumsfeldian agnosticism and Hanson-Scriven Atheism are separated by context.

N. Russell Hanson

Blue Brontosaurus

Great Disappointment

• In the wake of Williams Miller’s failed prophecy there arose a Great Disappointment, 1844.

• Some followers disassociated from the group, while others adhered more closely to the failed prophetic principles.

• Hiram Edson, a devout follower, correctly deciphers the porphecy that “sanctuary” was not on earth, but in heaven. His devout adherence became the roots of the modern Seventh-Day Adventist Church. (Rowe, 1992)

• The disappointment felt by Miller’s congregations has been labeled “cognitive dissonance.”

Chart Used by William Miller To predict Jesus Christ’s arrival

Cognitive Dissonance• Leon Festinger, et al.’s “Cognitive Dissonance:”

•“If a person holds two cognitions that are psychologically inconsistent , he experiences dissonance: a negative drive state (not unlike hunger or thirst). Because the experience of dissonance is unpleasant , the person will strive to reduce it—usually by struggling to find a way to change one or both cognitions to make them more consonant with one another.” (Aronson, 1997, 128)

Old Woman

Concrete Evidence of WMDs in Iraq!!!

Conclusion: Rumsfeldian Atheism and Unknown

Knowns