Political instability in Iraq:to what extent is ethnofederalism responsible?

By: Jalal H. Mistaffaj.mistaffa@ncl.ac.ukjalalhm@yahoo.com

Writing-up stage 101/05/2015

Source: http://thomaspmbarnett.com/globlogization/2010/5/21/the-middle-east-after-iraq.html201/05/2015

‘The future of Iraq as a nation state

is in question as never before.’

(The Report of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Houseof Commons/UK - Eighth Report of Session 2014–15)

The question is WHY?

301/05/2015

To answer the WHY, some think:

Iraq became a formally federal state in 2005, some academicsstate that this sort of political instability is expected in anethnofederation (Makiya, 2003: 9; Dawisha, 2004: 16; Byman,2003: 58, Wimmer, 2003: 124, Younis, 2011: 8).

It may be argued that Iraq, although politically was frequentlyunstable since 1921, has never experienced such highsecessionist tendencies.

The growth of these tendencies, in Iraq, was because offederalism, in its ethnofederal form.

401/05/2015

What is ethnofederalism?

Hale (2004: 167) defines ethnofederations:‘a federal state in which at least one constituent territorial governance unit

is intentionally associated with a specific ethnic category.’

Accordingly, Iraq is an ethnofederation because of the existence ofKurdistan Region that is the homeland of Kurds concentrated in thisarea and constitute around 95% of the overall region’ population.

This political entity, Kurdistan Region, is formally recognised by theIraqi constitution.

501/05/2015

KRG’s original territory

The rest of Iraq

601/05/2015

01/05/2015 7

How does ethnofederalism cause political instability?

Ethnofederalism, accordingly to the critics:

• Institutionalises antagonistic minority identities

• Institutionalises grievances

• Empowers the minorities, such as Kurds, and equip them with the formalinstitutions that makes them capable of stepping towards partition.

801/05/2015

In defence of ethnofederalismChapter one: a theoretical frame of federalism and ethnofederalism

Chapter two: theories of ethnicity and ethnic conflict implemented on Iraq

Chapter three: ethnofederal Iraq (in defence of ethnofederalism)

The contribution of ethnofederalism in the relative stability ofrelationships between the central government and the Kurdistan RegionGovernment –KRG

Past experiences of ethnic based autonomy and political stability

Chapter four: Key definitions (political instability, historical institutionalism,legitimacy, briefly presenting the alternative explanations to the existing politicalinstability in Iraq

Chapter five: The first alternative is the insufficient legitimacy of building thefederal Iraq

Chapter six: The second alternative A is the deficiencies found in the processes thatled to the adoption of these current institutions characterised mainly by theexclusion of a significant segment in Iraq, the Sunni Arabs

Chapter seven: The second alternative B is the deficiencies found in the structure ofsome major institutions in addition to the problem of insufficient ethnofederalism

901/05/2015

Methodology

This thesis utilises both quantitative and qualitative methods

(triangulation in some subjects)

Interviews with political leaders and MPs in Iraq were conducted between

August and October 2013.

Analysing formal (constitution and laws) and historical archival documents

(from British National Archives and newspapers)

In terms of quantitative methods, two datasets will be investigated in an

attempt to solidify the findings. These two datasets are surveys conducted in

Iraq byWorldValue Survey in 2004 and 2006.

10 01/05/2015