Developing The New Kinds of Leaders Needed for Our New Time

by Prabhu Guptara

Some people question whether this is a "new time" – or at least

whether it is any more "new" than any other time! Similarly,

some people assert that "leadership is, simply, leadership" –

by which they mean that leadership denotes essentially the same

abilities, skill and behavior in all times, situations and

places.

Let me start with a few of the factors that make ours "a new

time":

- Never before have we had as much wealth as today1

- Never before have we had as much poverty as today2

- Never before have we had a genuinely globalizing economy

(though the end

of the nineteenth century came close!)3

- Never before have we had the speed of technological progress

that we have

today4

- Never before have we had so much environmental deterioration5

- Never before has the global economy had so much debt6

- Never before have we had a global system based on usury7

- Never before have we had a global system focused on

exploiting so fully all

the possibilities created by fiat currencies8

- Never before have we had a global system that is so opaque9

1

- Never before have we had an economic system that is so highly

leveraged10

- Never before have we had so much volatility in the global

economy 11

- Never before have we had such a clash of values in the

world12

If you are not yet persuaded that we are in a "new time", I

hope that you have perhaps at least begun to consider that

possibility.

Meanwhile, let us turn our attention to the question of whether

leadership denotes the same phenomenon, across situations,

locations and times.

Leadership Across the Ages

While the earliest writers on leadership focused on leadership

as a divine call, gift and responsibility13, the best known

"early modern scholars" of the subject pursued an analysis of

leadership focusing on "leadership traits"14, though later

writers turned to exploring the dimensions of leadership,

specially their applicability in different contexts15.

The history of the literature on leadership establishes quite

clearly that leadership may be an innate gift but that

situation and context are what help it to emerge, that it can

be nurtured ("trained" or "developed") at least to enable it to

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rise to its own highest native level, and that a leader who is

effective in one context may not necessarily be effective in

another context16.

So, if we possibly are in a "new time", and if we need a new

kind of leadership for our day, I will take, as my agenda for

the rest of this chapter, what those two things mean for

people, specially in organizations, interested in or

responsible for nurturing and developing the next generation of

leaders, in terms of:

- understanding what is entailed by the above for leadership

development;

- exploring why companies and other organizations do (or do

not) undertake

leadership development; and

- reflecting on content and methods, including new paradigms.

WHAT IS "LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT"?

Let us begin by noting that there is some confusion about

whether such development should focus on benefiting the

individual as an individual, benefiting the individual as a

manager, benefiting the company as a unit, or benefiting the

company as part of society.

Probably only partly as a result of this confusion, much

"leadership development" simply focuses on helping individuals

develop their own skills. Naturally, this is necessary. But

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it is doubtful whether that is enough. And the same goes for

each of the other approaches.

However, if we agree that these dimensions (individual, team,

company and society) are all essential aspects of a well-

rounded program of leadership development, we will probably

also agree that there are few programs that pass muster in

terms of being suitably well-rounded, with an appropriate

proportion for helping individual development, helping people

develop as managers, helping organizations consider

systematically how to benefit parts of the company, helping

organizations consider systematically how to benefit the

organization as a whole, and then helping everyone consider

systematically how the company can benefit society.

At the level of an individual (or an individual as part of a

team), there is increasing realization that we need to develop

"T-shaped" leaders. That is, leaders who are world-class in

their particular field of specialization (the vertical line of

the "T") while at the same time as they have at least a

headline-level understanding of the entire political/ legal/

economic/ technological/ social/ media-driven context of

business (the horizontal line of the "T").

At the level of teams, there is increasing recognition of the

need to move beyond team dynamics to considering the inter-

relationship of those to institutional or corporate factors.

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At the level of the organization, as a result of the prevalence

of mergers and acquisitions over the last few decades, and the

resulting necessity for changes in business scope, scale and

models, there has been more and more freedom to look at

alternative visions, missions, strategies, structures,

policies, practices, culture and so on.

Clearly, it should be no surprise that a company focusing on

individual development will have a program that is radically

different (and different results, even in terms of its annual

or quarterly bottom line, but also in terms of its brand and

reputation) compared to a company that includes the team

dimension in its leadership development program – and that will

be different from one that includes the corporate dimension –

which will, in turn, be rather different from a company that

integrates the socio-political and global dimension.

If each company resolves in its own way the matter of the

balance between individual development, team development,

corporate development and the development of its social

contribution, it is obvious that what a company does in those

areas determines what the level to which it is able to realize

its own innate potential for business success.

However, whether an organization is able to move beyond that to

leverage its potential for world impact depends on what it

decides to do (or not do) in the area of its relationship to

society as a whole. In that matter, a company has three

principal choices:

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- Try to dodge the issue as far as possible

- Deal with the issue on an ad-hoc basis

- Attempt to develop a systematic approach, in view of its

self-interest versus

the interest of the whole world, to confronting

challenges such as: bribery, child labor, slave

labor, or similar exploitation of workers; unfair

competition and false advertising; laws and

regulations in relation to its industry as a whole,

as well as wider issues to do with health, safety,

pensions, and working hours; the possibility of

political, monetary, and economic reform;

environmental responsibility and climate change; and

the creation of a global level playing field in the

above areas - but without increasing the potential

for global tyranny.

WHY COMPANIES DO (OR DON'T) UNDERTAKE LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT

Next, there is fuzzy thinking about why companies should (or

should not) undertake leadership or executive development.

Some companies decline to do any leadership development at all

on the basis of posing such questions as: "Does it make sense

for us to spend money on it? Should we do it if the people we

train are going to leave the company more or less quickly? Why

not simply recruit suitable people from the market: it would be

less hit-and-miss!" However, we all know that it is not always

possible to buy the right talent from the market at the when

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that talent is needed – and, more important, to guarantee the

integration of that talent into one's team.

Then, there is the really tough question: "How much should we

spend on this activity?"

Most ticklish of all, we wonder, "How can we ensure that we get

a worthwhile return on our investment in leadership development

activities?"

Such questions have had increasing prevalence, specifically in

the last few years, when companies have faced increasing global

competition, as well as felt the effects of the current crisis.

As a result, many companies have increased suitably positive

rhetoric while actually decreasing the amount spent on

leadership development activities – reducing also the quantity

of time spent on such activity, in the mistaken belief that

online training is a good or at least an adequate way of

pursuing leadership development.

The truth is that there are no easy answers to such questions,

and each organization has to wrestle its way through to its own

answers – which will also, by the way, vary with the company's

situation over time. The right answer yesterday may not be the

right answer today and will almost certainly not be the right

answer tomorrow.

Perhaps it will help to have a bit of a historical perspective

on this. Up to the 1980s, the heart of most leadership

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development activity focused on what could be called "hard"

production-driven or financial tools and methods, the

assumption of which was that there was one right way to best

performance (leadership development courses could be said to

have been run on the basis of the slogan, "THIS IS THE WAY").

By the 1990s, however, the much older but not as influential

orientation towards "soft" skills became dominant for the

courses run in companies, because service-driven benchmarking

became much more necessary to competitive advantage. The

slogan for such courses could be articulated as "LET US FIND

THE WAY TOGETHER". At present, where there is a genuine

commitment to leadership development, the approach seems to be

marked by what I would call an "open" approach that is

competition-driven, the assumption of which is to ask: "IS

THERE A WAY?" The focus now is on the new competitive issues

and challenges facing companies in view of two trends: the

over-production (and therefore the hyper-competition)

introduced by the differing impacts of technologyFN lwc21, and

the fact that we are now in a globalised economy, facing

competition not only from new entrants to our industry (FN my

Global 100 Report) but also from low-cost challengers from

parts of the world that are low-cost because they have lower

standards of infrastructure, of health and safety, of

environmental and human responsibility. The questions posed by

contemporary programs in leadership development focus therefore

on: How to get out in front, and how to win, in the new global game, whose rules,

possibilities and challenges change ever more rapidly..

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THE CHANGING CONTENT OF LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT

To a certain extent, this subject has already been touched in

the comments above. It is not only the relatively static

boundaries and stabilities of the Cold War era that have

disappeared, but also the stagflation of the Seventies, the

unipolar world of the turn of this century, and even the

economic boom of the last several decades.

In a business context marked by flux, uncertainty, non-

linearity and complexity, it is clear that leadership

development must focus not only on the development of

leadership skills in individuals but also aspire to

organizational development. The challenge is that of how to

build profitable businesses while recognizing that continued

success requires attention to social, economic and political

realities, globally. It is not only individual leaders who

must learn to wrestle with complexity while being able to look

beyond it, our entire organizations that must be able to do so.

It is therefore not surprising that leadership development has

been changing even at the level of the individual, and not

simply in the matter of going beyond developing individual and

task skills (such as time management, stress management, and

work-life balance) to helping the emergence of T-shaped

leaders. Psychological tests of various sorts have become

popular as a means of helping individuals to understand

themselves as individuals as well as part of a team – for

example, in understanding their own leadership style. Such

psychological assessment can involve the integration of

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information from multiple sources, such as tests of ability,

intelligence, interests or attitudes, as well as information

collected by interviews, in particular from work colleagues –

e.g. 360-degree assessment. Innovative examples of such tests

are: Interplace (based on research at Henley Management

College, UK, in the 1970s), Matchpower and SIMA).

At the level of team development, there has been inclusion of

such controversial areas as influencing skills and the use of

power, while at the level of organizational development, there

has been increasing emphasis on such subjects as

intrapreneurship as well as managing beyond the legal

boundaries of one's own organization – e.g. in joint ventures

and outsourcing.

However, the really significant change has come about in the

way that the content and implications of globalization have

become an increasingly relevant, challenging, and interesting

part of leadership development. These include the issue of the

chaos in all aspects of our maturing markets globallyFN, the

impact of the various aspects of technology and the resulting

over-supply of goods and services FN as well as the resulting

speed at which the business world is changing in terms of

restructuring, mass customizationFN and the need for making not

only manufacturing operations lean but the entire organization

flexible. Outsourcing and joint ventures have been mentioned

already as phenomena that involve the fascinating subject of

how to manage people who are not even on your payrollFN, but

there is also the equally challenging phenomenon of insourcing.

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We have also touched upon corporate/ team innovationFN as a new

development, but wholly new areas that need to be and are being

tackled include: organizational culture, organizational

integration, organizational alignment, organizational learning,

knowledge management and intellectual capitalFN; management of

reputation, intangibles and brand (visibility, consistency,

meaning)FN; public policy and "legislation, legislation, and

legislation (that is, its quantity, complexity and even

ambiguity)FN; human rights, the environment and climate change;

ethics, spirituality, faith, and valuesFN; and corporate

governance and corporate social responsibilityFN.

CHANGING METHODS OF LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT

Not surprisingly, there have been several innovations in the

methods used for developing leaders. Given the fact that there

are inevitable limitations in the amount of time available for

the purpose, there has been increased emphasis on greater

interactivity, while using fewer and shorter "upfront"

presentations. There are of course disadvantages with "less

long" presentations: some subjects demand a certain amount of

time to explain, and the more complex the subject, the more

likely it is to need more time to understand. Merely having

group interaction in relation to such subjects can be a

complete waste of time, as it may result in people sharing only

their existing ignorance or superficial knowledge with each

other. On the other hand, increased used of the techniques of

group dynamics helps group formation and group learning – which

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are surely one key objective of any subject corporate

leadership development exercise.

That may be one reason that some corporations now refuse to

send individuals for leadership development by themselves,

preferring to spend their budget and time on learning

interventions that are intended to help whole teams.

In line with this, there has been introduction of outdoor team

work, theater, music and the arts – all exciting and worthwhile

developments, that encourage "whole brain" (or rather "whole

person") learning.

Coaching and mentoringFN, deputation, and action (project-

based) learningFN are other matters that have come into

prominence in the recent past.

That brings us to the difficult subject of technology-based

learning or e-learning, on which some remarks have already been

made. It is not at all clear that organisations have thought

through what kinds of things are best taught by which media and

for how long. While it is fine to expect mathematically-

intelligent youngsters to pick up the relative simplicities of

specific financial concepts such as net present value by

reading and looking up examples online, it is doubtful that we

are anywhere near even understanding the full potential of

technologies that can be used in leadership development,

whether those technologies are relatively traditional such as

audio and video, relatively modern such as twitter, skype, and

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social networking, or clearly on the horizon, such as virtual

reality.

Naturally, as the boundaries of organizations become fungible,

and as the worlds of business come closer to those of politics,

of government, and of civil society, organizations have begun

to explore the potential of learning consortiums not only for

benchmarking but for actually working together across such

traditional barriers.

TOWARDS NEW PARADIGMS OF LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT

As the need of the twenty first century is for the development

of unprecedented numbers of inspiring leaders at every level,

consider the model that has been developed by The Trinity

ForumFN. Their 'Inspiring Leadership' curriculum features a

range of excerpts, from films and writings expressing diverse

and even contradictory points of view, which are discussed off-

the-record (using Chatham House rules) by groups of cross-

industry leaders who are also chosen for the diversity of their

experience and perspectives. By small groups is meant

something between 12 and 24. The point to note is that there

are no lectures or other forms of 'input' other than the

feature films and writings. The discussions are facilitated by

trained moderators, whose job is to provoke and enable

discussion, not to push any particular point of view

themselves. There are only two points at which participants

are actually expected to speak: at the start, in order to

introduce themselves briefly, and at the end to share what they

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take away (whether new concepts or prompts to action or indeed

actions to which they may have decided to commit themselves).

If the participants are involved in their personal capacities,

the focus has to be on individual learning. However, where the

curriculum is offered within an organization, the focus is

equally on the individual, team, organizational and global

dimensions.

Consider also that, as organisations increasingly depend on

complex alliances and influences, executives recognize the need

to build their networks and their skills across boundaries.

This can be achieved through formal traditional networks like

the Conference Board, or through informal networks and action-

learning groups. Because of the increase in business pressures,

some executives are also turning to newer forms of networking

that take less time, or achieve greater impact. For example,

the model developed by the 'Catalyst' organisation Ci

(www.careerinnovation.com),facilitates a mix of efficient, low-

cost online and telephone networking plus high-cost, business-

focused projects as & when justified by a real business need.

On the basis of Ci's experience with human capital and

productivity, the same cross-boundary networking could be

achieved on any business topic.

The Executive MBA pioneered by the Institute of International

Business Relations (the business school of Steinbeis

University, Berlin, Germany) includes some of the features of

the two initiatives mentioned above. Essentially, it differs

from other MBA programs because it not only helps participants

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to master the conceptual tools that other MBA programs do, it

tries to do with as little time spent on that as possible, in

order to focus most of the time on actually applying the

concepts learnt in every module (for example, finance,

marketing or organization behavior) to their own organization.

This has now become the most popular MBA in Ukraine, and has

now started also in India, in Israel, in Mozambique, in

Namibia, and so on. The entire philosophy of the IBR EMBA is

based on what IBR calls its "Research Cycle". This demonstrates

clearly how research work directly influences problem solving

and decision- making in practical management situations. Each

course starts with mandatory readings. IBR provides students

with detailed instruction sheets, one instruction sheet for

each course. While reading the text materials and the

instructions, students have to identify a management problem at

work that they wish to solve by means of the concepts and tools

they have studied. Once the management problem has been

defined, students analyze their

case, develop options for possible solutions and select the

best solution. This solution is assessed in the light of

issues associated with implementation at work. The whole

process is documented in a management report (or assignment).

Students are invited for a tutorial session in which they

present for discussion the first draft of this assignment. The

other course participants, together with the course professor,

reflect on the management report, and offer the author the

possibility of further improving the management report before

handing it in for final assessment. Interestingly, IBR does

not offer any courses for training in generic competencies

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because that is integrated as an important part of every single

course including the thesis. For instance communication skills

are trained systematically and step-by-step from the day that a

participant starts the course till the final examination.

Students go through the IBR Research Cycle in every of the 27

projects they undertake during their EMBA course, as well as in

relation to their Master's-thesis. This affects self study

periods as well as tutoring sessions. Consequently,

participants work on these skills in every single project and

improve over time. In addition, residential periods allow

faculty to place an emphasis on communication skills training,

where students work on projects presented by outside companies.

This becomes a particular challenge because all participants

have to participate in residential periods abroad. Analytical,

problem solving, critical thinking and leadership skills are

also developed in accordance with this cycle as all these are

an integral part of every single course. Without analysis,

there can be no problem solution. Without problem solving

skills, the results of any analysis are useless because the

problem remains unsolved. If program participants do not assess

problems and solutions in a critical and challenging way, they

will never identify best solutions. "Best" solutions may be

academically feasible, but if they cannot be implemented at the

end of the day, the whole work has been in vain. Leadership

skills are developed as a result of reflecting systematically

on the practicalities of implementing solutions, which is done

for every

single module. Interestingly also, IBR has decided not to seek

traditional academic accreditations such as those of the AACSB

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and EFMD, choosing instead to be accredited by the federation

of employers' associations of Austria, Germany and Switzerland

(FIBAA). So far, IBR has also steered clear even trying to be

included in media ratings of MBAs, believing that the entire

process actually lowers standards and distorts the field of

leadership develpment.

Another paradigm-shift is represented by the Zermatt Summit

(www.zermattsummit.ch), which is principally for CEOs and Board

Members, and addresses the question of how to "humanize

globalization". In other words, it seeks to identify all the

positive aspects of globalization and then to seek to maximize

their benefit to all of society, while also seeking to identify

all the deleterious aspects of globalization and then to find

ways to minimize their impact.

The Stein Am Rhein Symposium of "stars" (www.the-stars.ch) is

another innovative cross-boundary program in leadership

development that focuses on the sorts of uncertainties and

challenges that face (and will face) the current generation of

up-and-coming leaders by the time they are really in positions

where they can influence not only their own teams or divisions

but their organizations as a whole. It is intended for "proven

young leaders" between the ages of 35 and 40, nominated by

their Chairman or CEO or other distinguished personality on the

basis that the nominee is likely to be on a company Board

within the next three to five years. Eighty participants are

selected on a competitive basis from all parts of the world,

from all industries, governments, non-governmental

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organizations, inter-governmental organizations, academia,

media, law and other professions. The program lasts only 72

hours, in which the first half-day usually provides the views

of three leaders, one each from Europe, the USA and Asia, on

the challenges and choices that will face the participants as

leaders and as citizens by 2020. In 2010, the speakers on the

opening evening were Dr Joseph Ackermann, the CEO of Deutsche

Bank; Mr Robert Milligan, the Chairman of the U.S. Chamber of

Commerce, which is the world's largest business organization

with over three million businesses and business associations as

members; and Mr Yoshiyuki Ogura, who has responsibility for

Hitachi's international expansion. The next day provided a

perspective on the changing world of health, led by Dr Patrick

Dixon from the UK, one of the world's leading business

futurists (www.globalchange.com); a political and economic

perspective by Dr Linda Yueh of Oxford University, and the

"double-edged sword of intellectual property rights" by China's

leading scholar in the field, Dr Xiaoguang Shan. This was

followed by regional workshops (e.g. on Africa, India, Latin

America, the Middle East, and Russia). The following day

explored the implications of four cutting edge technological

developments that are likely to transform business and society

(virtual reality, nanotechnology, open source innovation and

RFID), looking not only at the actual technologies, their

prospects and likely impacts, but also (led by Dr Nigel M. de

S. Cameron of the Center for Policy on Emerging Technologies, a

think tank based in Washington D.C: www.c-pet.org) ) at what we

need to do immediately if we are to modify the impacts to those

that are desirable. The next session looked at the choices,

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tensions, ecology and economics regarding the whole field of

energy, with presentations from the perspectives of global

trends and scenarios (Jeremy Bentham from Shell), European-

Russian energy relations (Dr Burckhard Bergmann, Member of the

Board of Gazprom), a Chinese perspective (Professor Yunlong E

of Beijing University, who is also a Senior Adviser to the

China Xinxing Corporation), and an examination of energy costs,

pricing, profits and consequences (led by Dr Alexander Kulpecz,

Principal of The Omega Group). The last morning started with a

special focus on China, with Mr Duncai Yu, President of the

China Xinxing Corporation (and Vice-President of the Chinese

Federation of Enterprises) presenting the changes happening in

China's State-owned Enterprises, Professor Dr Yang Yao

(Director of the China Center for Economic Research at Peking

University) investigating the nature of institutional change in

China, and Simone Song (Managing Director of Cowan Latitude,

Hong Kong) exploring the growing world of China's civic

societies. The concluding session featured an honest and

gripping exploring of what it means to live with change, led by

Jürgen Dormann (Chairman of Sulzer, of Metall-Zug as well as V-

Zug, and Member of the Board of the BG Group PLC) as well as by

Sergio Marchionne (CEO of Fiat and of Chrysler). The whole

program is highly interactive, with a usual presentation length

of 15 minutes or less. The bulk of the program is devoted to

interaction either in plenary or in small groups. Part of the

motivation of having such a small number of participants

(eighty) is to encourage networking - with the small group

sessions and dining arrangements being organized to ensure that

every participant has a chance to meet not only the other

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participants but also the speakers. The government of China is

so impressed with the program, that it has entered into a

partnership so that, in addition to the annual session in

Switzerland, the Symposium will also be run in China in 2011

CONCLUSION

Clearly, the most important ingredient provided by such

programs in leadership development is not simply the input or

the organisational arrangements, but the space for reflection

and the opportunity for gaining a certain distance from the

hurly burly of daily urgencies which is the normal life of even

a mid-level executive today, let alone a leader.

 

So what is the single most important thing that leaders can do

to become, or remain, the kinds of leaders that are needed by

our times? In my view, it is protecting the time and space in

which to be able to reflect so as to be able to see the wood

for the trees. Perhaps that is why the ancient Hebrews

accepted the institution of the Sabbath, and it may even be one

of the reasons why the Hebrews have come to dominate

international commerce and the media. In circles that follow

Jesus the Lord, it is usual to spend some time each day reading

the Bible, allowing God to speak to you, and speaking with Him

in return. Someone once put it like this: "Laws do not move

the heart. But laws do restrain the heartless - and a personal

relationship with God does move even the heart. When that is

moved, there is a transformation of the personality away from

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superficialities and urgencies to understanding the reason that

I was made, and to motivating and enabling me to fulfil the

reason that I was made".

The world does not lack all kinds of leadership development

programs - in spite of which we still get much greater fraud

than we did for centuries, ranging from Enron to Madoff. Could

it be that one of the reasons for that, and one of the reasons

we are short of inspiring leaders today, is that we have

abandoned such ancient secrets, which are what enabled the West

to rise so far above the level that might have been expected on

the basis of its resource and human base?FN

ENDS

NOTES:

1. Guptara, Prabhu. "Towards Creating the Right Kind of

Globalization – Why it does not happen, and what to do

about it", in Josef Straus (ed.), The Role of Law and

Ethics in the Globalized Economy (Max Planck Institute

Studies on Intellectual Property, Competition and Tax Law

volume 10), Springer Verlag, Berlin & Heidelberg, 2009,

pages 61-63

2. Guptara, ibid., pages 63-64

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3. See Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs and Steel, Chatto & Windus,

UK, 1997; Karl Moore and David Lewis, Birth of the

Multinational: 2000 Years of Ancient Business History,

Copenhagen Business School Press, 1999 Kenwood, A.G. and

Lougheed, A.L. The Growth of the International Economy

1820-2000, Routledge, UK, fourth edition, 1999

4. That is true only as far as we can tell from history: we

know little about why stainless steel existed in India so

many centuries before its invention in the modern West, or

how the ancients were able to do brain surgery, or why and

how the pyramids and Stonehenge and various other such

ancient monuments could be built; were such things all

that could be built based on the human memory of life

relating to Project Babel before the Flood (in the

Biblical version of pre-history), after which the division

of human languages and the consequent transformations may

have caused the usefulness of older memories to become

questionable? One of the most authoritative books on the

history of technology is James E McClellan, Science and

Technology in World History, Johns Hopkins University

Press, USA, 2006. There is also Daniel R Headrick,

Technology: A World History, Oxford University Press,

USA, 2009.

5. One of the best sources of information on this topic is

maintained by the reinsurance company, SwissRe

(www.swissre.com/rethinking/natcat), though I find it

astonishing that the Bible predicted thousands of years

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ago that earthquakes will increase (and indeed travel! –

see Daniel 12.4); further it predicts increased famines

and environmental disasters before the earth as a whole is

remade (Psalms 102.25-26; Hebrews 1.10-12; Revelations

chapters 21 and 22).

6. According to the Global Debt Clock

http://buttonwood.economist.com/content/gdc?

source=features_box4 on November 4, 2010, at 1645h, the

global public debt amounted to USD 40,569,117,793,622. The

"debt clock" for the USA is, as might be expected, the

most comprehensive in the world, detailing not only public

debt but also personal debt: http://www.usdebtclock.org.

I can find no such clock for corporate debt, but would not

be surprised if this outdoes both personal and public

debt.

7. Except for the Jewish world, all other parts of the world

seem to have had usury-based systems till the churches

forbade its use; later, however, the churches permitted

its use; but we have never earlier had a global system

based on usury (even though the Muslim parts of the world

claim to avoid usury by various devices, that is not a

claim that stands up to scrutiny); the economic and

financial disadvantages of usury-based systems are now

well documented - e.g. in Paul Mills' work, most easily

accessible in Michael Schluter et al (eds.), Jubilee

Manifesto, InterVarsity Press, USA, 2005). My writings on

23

the subject are easily available by Googling "guptara

usury"

8. Niall Ferguson, The Ascent of Money, Penguin Books, USA,

2009.

9. The shadow banking system (or the shadow financial system)

can be defined in various ways but, essentially, consists

of means of escaping the reach of regulation, as far as

possible. In the so-called "developing" parts of the

world, it is impolitely called "black money", while in the

so-called "developed" parts of the world, it is politely

called "the shadow system" and consists of (a) apparently

regulated financial entities finding ways to benefit from

non-regulated financial activity, and (b) non-depository

banks and other financial entities (e.g., investment

banks, hedge funds, money market funds, special investment

vehicles, conduits, monolines and even institutional

investors such as pension funds) that grew in size

dramatically after 2000 (following the abolition of the

Glass-Steagall Act, and the deliberate introduction of

legislation because it was not necessary for the largest

players and the largest plays to be in the light of

registration and regulation). Today, such firms and

transactions continue to play an increasingly critical

role in international business. By June 2008, the U.S.

shadow banking system had already become approximately the

same size as the U.S. traditional depository banking

system. The crisis of 2007-2008 resulted when "shadow"

24

entities stopped providing funds to (or through) other

financial entities. Generally, the shadow financial

system seeks to profit from some combination of (a) fees,

(b) the duration of loans, and (c) the difference, between

what shadow entities pay investors, versus what shadow

entities receive from borrowers; the differential is

usually in interest rates, especially across countries or

across categories of borrowers – though, in some cases,

the differential lies in taxation rates or other

benefits/penalties of legislation/ regulation.

10. The new regulations that have been passed in the US,

the EU and other developed areas are attempting to limit

in various ways the amount of leverage in the global

system. The annual GDP of the US is a little short of $15

trillion. The world's GDP is about $50 trillion. But the

amount of "money" involved around the world as a result of

leverage is something of the order of $1.5 quadrillion.

If you want to get some sense of understanding of what a

quadrillion is, I have been passed on an interesting

exercise: think of one dollar, spend one second looking

at a dollar. Do you know how many hours it will take you

to see all a quadrillion dollars? Well, it won't take you

hours or days or even a year or something, it will take

you thirty two whole years!

11. There are various kinds of volatility indexes which

try to estimate the degree of volatility. Specifically in

the worlds of economy, finance and business, on a

25

relatively long-term view, we can see increasing

volatility in them all. Guptara, ibid., pages 64-65

12. Earlier clashes were all about who would control what

resources (e.g. land, people or mineral wealth); on a

continuing basis, the age of the clash of values can be

said to have been inaugurated by the Protestant

Reformation which installed the rational values of the

modern world (see Rodney Stark, The Victory of Reason,

Random House, 2005). While many in the West then became

rationalists and merely abandoned the Bible, their

descendants went in two directions: some have now become

what I call "fundamentalist rationalists" who attack

furiously anything and everything that is other than

rationalistic (e.g. Richard Dawkins); other descendants of

the early rationalists have, however, abandoned

rationalism, and have turned to a variety of mysticisms,

primarily of an Eastern sort (see Vishal Mangalwadi, When

the New Age Gets Old: Looking for a Greater Spirituality

(InterVarsity Press, USA, 1992; some later editions are

titled In Search of Self). All this is, however,

primarily within the Western world. The East reacted to

Protestantism and Modernism by inventing new values – e.g.

"Islamic" and "Hindu" (Guptara, Indian Spirituality, Grove

Books, U.K., 1984; further material is best obtained by

Googling "guptara fundamentalism"). China seems to be in

the process of inventing a new mixture of Capitalism, One

Party Rule, Confucianism and Confucianism (see, e.g.

Ruiping Fan, Reconstructionist Confucianism, Springer,

26

USA, 2009). Samuel P. Huntington thought of a clash

between eight principal civilizations, though at present

it looks increasingly as if the main clash is going to be

between political and social systems of more or less

substantial freedom on one hand (led by the USA), and new

incarnations of lack of freedom (led by China). See also

V. Mangalwadi, Truth and Transformation, YWAM, USA, 2009.

13. For example, the view of leadership in the Bible,

(e.g. in the stories relating to the greatest Biblical

leaders -whether Abraham, Isaac, Jacob, Moses, Daniel, or

indeed Jesus the Lord) is clearly that of a divine call,

gift and responsibility. The Hebrew kings are either

called or at least confirmed in their positions by God.

The prophets are, at least in their own understanding,

dependent on God as the source of their words. The

Apostles ("sent ones") do not opt in to being sent, they

are called by Jesus the Lord first to follow him and then

to go on his behalf to people and lands (usually other

than their own). In the most detailed passage on

leadership in the Bible, Paul writes to Timothy (chapter

3) regarding the moral qualities that are required of

leaders. However, in his second letter to Timothy, Paul

urges him "to fan into flame the gift of God which is in

you", referring to the gift of leadership (2 Timothy 1.6)

–implying that though, in the Biblical view, leadership is

a divine gift, that gift does not operate fully without

the active co-operation of the person to whom the gift is

given.

27

Stogdill, R.M. (1948). Personal factors associated with leadership: A survey of the literature. Journal of Psychology, 25, 35-71. Stogdill, R.M. (1963). Manual for the Leader Behavior Description Questionnaire -- Form XII. Columbus: Ohio State University, Bureau of Business Research. Stogdill, R.M. (1974). Handbook of leadership: A survey of theory and research. New York: The Free Press.

14. FN As I warned publicly in 2008 at the annual meeting

of The Performance Theatre.

15. Credit markets tend to beat equity markets as a

source of clues about where the economy is heading. In

fact, some sort of credit crisis has driven most major

downturns over the past 30 to 40 years — not only the

recent property debacle in the U.S. but also the crises

generated by excessive government borrowing in Latin

America in 1982 and by excessive corporate borrowing in

Southeast Asia in 1997.

16. one issue that  might be worthwhile expanding on in

such a discussion: these are the changing ways in which

ideas and innovations are created and collaborations are

enacted, even nowadays.

As you argue, these skills/qualities will become ever more

28

important (of course depending of the development status

of  the societal context); indications show that the skill

development will certainly not be fully possible in the

structure of the "current" industrial set-up for

idea/innovation generation. Here boundaries will become

permeable, with its own challenges, changing the ways in

which companies operate.

While in part certainly technically induced/facilitated,

such developments already break (or at least change) some

of the traditional logic of the framework underlying some

of the arguments in the article; possibly the change is

such, that company external cultural issues will be

embedded much more intensively into the company

philosophy, or - said differently - "force" companies to

embrace this cultural influence. Thus, there are already

forces at work that show a way in which such changes do

occur.

This may then already be one "design element" of the new

organizations, that is at work and will be emerging even

stronger going forward.

THE CHANGING CONTEXT OF LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT

STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTIES

29

What are some headline trends, and what are the sorts of

strategic uncertainties that each generates, which will shape

the context within which companies will have to compete?

A. Is climate change real? Is human activity a significant

contributor to it? What humanity should versus what it will do

to adapt? Answers to such questions will determine whether the

densest human settlements, which are all near large bodies of

water (cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong, and London, as well

as entire countries such as Bangladesh) will survive - and what

the impact will be of large-scale migration or disaster. In

any case, changed global temperatures and weather patterns may

mean on the one hand the reduction of ice-caps (whether on

mountains or at the earth's poles) and, on the other hand, an

increase in the size and location of deserts and semi-desert

areas – with impacts on agriculture, mining, and relative

wealth, as well as on competition for existing, declining and

new resources. The effects of melting polar ice-caps we can

more or less anticipate; what we cannot even begin to

anticipate are the effects of large chunks of earth (e.g.

mountains) falling into the seas as a result of any changes in

the pattern of movement of tectonic plates - whether or not (as

I have suggested elsewhere) these are influenced by the

extraction of oil and gas, as well as other human activity.

For example, if a significant chunk of Portugal, Spain or Wales

were to slide into the sea, the resulting tsunami could

inundate, at least temporarily, the east coast of the USA for

several miles, wreaking havoc not only on all the individual

cities and energy, marine and agricultural industries but

30

indeed on the entire fortunes of the United States, Canada and

Mexico (as well as perhaps the West Indies and further south).

B. Is globalization in fact "largely irreversible, but likely

to become less Westernized" in the words of Mapping the Global

Future, a December 2004 report published by the National

Intelligence Council (a CIA think-tank)? The standard of living

of China and India may or may not ever approach Western levels,

but the present perception is that, provided free trade and

peace continue, China and India may become significant powers.

If so, the demand for raw materials will increase. To take

just one example, oil and gas supplies in the ground may be

sufficient in theory to meet global demand, but growing energy

needs will increasingly shape the foreign policies of all

countries. The same applies to competition for other strategic

or otherwise scarce resources, which may (as indicated in the

paragraph above) come to include water and even clean air. In

any case, we know from history that dominant powers do not

easily accommodate growing powers, nor do growing powers take

easily to the patronizing attitudes of dominant powers. Most

transitions are, therefore, violent. In whatever way the

transitions happen, the question is: what sorts of ‘new rules

of the game’ such rising powers will want to set – and whether

the rest of the world will acquiesce in those "new rules of the

game". We already appear to have moved from the G7 to the G20,

but it is unclear whether the G20 will be able to produce

useful and effective decisions. One test will be provided by

the current attempt to bolster national competitiveness by the

"competitive devaluation of currencies" (a stratagem which has

31

not worked, historically). Another test will be provided

whether the global economy then does take the dangerous step

towards protectionism – if so, the world will have taken

another step nearer the likelihood of war(s)FN. A third test

will be provided by the tensions around Chinese territorial

disputes with Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia,

Russia, Taiwan, The Philippines, and Vietnam – not to mention

China's role in relation to countries such as North Korea, Iran

and Sudan.

C. Will the dollar continue to be effectively the world's

reserve currency, or will current efforts to create a supra-

national reserve currency succeed? Will we be able to learn to

manage or contain bigger and bigger systemic crises in our

monetary, financial and economic system, or will we eventually

learn to put the global monetary, financial and economic system

on a more solid and stable basisFN some of my articles on that

matter?

D. Whether economic growth, in developing as well as developed

countries, will be sufficient to absorb a growing number of

workers (migrant or local),. Related to that is the extent to

which increased connectivity, with the increased proliferation

of social media and virtual communities of interest, will

challenge governments. On the other hand, incredibly powerful

new surveillance technologies as well as police and military

technologies (existing or new) may lead to the rise of new

despotic or authoritarian regimes – and what response to those

contradictory challenges posed by communication technologies

32

will that produce from existing despotic and authoritarian

regimes (such as Cuba, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Sudan,

Iran, and Korea)? Given all the uncertainties, will fragile

newly-open democracies (such as some states of the former

Soviet Union, and parts of South East Asia), as well as

established closed societies such as Myanmar (Burma) have the

capacity to survive – and, if not, whether their collapse will

trigger regional and/or superpower competition for control or

at least influence?

E. Will ageing societies such as the EU and Japan adapt

workforces and economic and welfare systems, and integrate

migrant populations? Failure to attempt to do so will mean

continued stagnation – and successful adaptation and

integration will mean a rise in the fortunes of such countries,

but unsuccessful adaptation and integration will mean that such

countries will decline dramatically.

F. As a result of different rates of growth, debt, and socio-

political challenges in the countries of the European Union,

will there be merely a period of prolonged economic stasis, or

will that "union" break up? The alternative, if the

constituent countries are willing to further compromise their

sovereignty, is for the EU to integrate further – in which case

it will sooner or later become a superpower in its own right,

with consequences for the entire globe (which may be positive

or negative, depending on the values by which the new

superpower is driven).

33

"Key Uncertainties" - 2

The extent of the gaps between ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’. Large

pockets of poverty will exist even in ‘winner’ countries, with

potential destabilizing effects.

Extent to which political instability in producer countries may

produce supply disruptions - Middle East, Caspian Sea area,

Venezuela, and West Africa

Traditional geographic groupings will lose significance.

Competition for allegiances will be more open, less fixed than

in the past. There will be an increase in the power of non-

state actors. Willingness and ability of states and

international institutions to accommodate/co-exist with non-

state actors, such as private companies, non-governmental

organizations, international organizations, philanthropists and

mafias or criminal networks.

.

Willingness and ability of states and international

institutions to accommodate/ co-exist with non-state actors

However, the rise of the "new universalist religions" of

agnosticism and genuine secularism after WWII meant the decline

at least in the perceived importance of the "old religions".

With the expected transition of the "new religions" to the more

radical sorts of atheism represented by Dawkins et al

Religious institutions, at least for the universalist religions

of Buddhism, Judaism, Christianity and Islam have always

transcended national boundaries. That perception was, it has

now become evident, merely a perception, and the "old

34

religions" remain potent forces. In the case of Buddhism, its

rise had already influenced politics in Vietnam even in the

Sixties and, more recently, has transformed Sri Lanka from a

secular and multi-racial country to a much more nationalistic

entity with a single dominant people-group. In the future, if

radical Buddhism continues to rise, it may influence a swathe

of countries from Thailand to Japan. Fascistic Hinduism has

been rising in India, and the only thing that has stood in the

way of that taking over the second-largest country in the world

is the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty; how long that family is able to

play an integrating role in the country remains to be seen,

though an encouraging development is the establishment of

India's first political party based on a secular, anti-caste

and ethical basisFN. Judaism at present seems contained in its

influence to Israel, but that may change as Jews everywhere

become more assertive about their Jewish identity. Roman

Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches are becoming

increasingly assertive (and the Roman Church has never

renounced its historic right to have military forces), though

the Protestant churches, influenced by the Biblical view of the

separation of powers and by their tradition of pacifism, seem

destined to play a more humane role. The rise of a jihadist

ideology and of politicized Islam (whether in the form of

states such as Iran, or guerrilla forces as in Lebanon and

Palestine, or individual suicide bombers) has so far proved to

be only a force for destabilization, and the extent of its

ability to destabilize is linked to the ability of terrorists

to acquire biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear

weapons. Whether politicised Islam will ever become more

35

constructive remains to be seen. There is also the question of

the impact of religiosity on the unity of increasingly multi-

ethnic states, and the likely potential for conflict

Improved WMD capabilities of some states; a more pervasive

sense of insecurity

Great power conflict escalating into total war is unlikely.

Internal conflicts, particularly those that involve ethnic

groups straddling national boundaries, risk escalating into

regional conflicts.

Whether there will be more nuclear powers – or none.

Ability to manage flashpoints and competition for resources.

Extent to which internal conflicts result in failing or failed

states - territory and populations devoid of effective

governance.

US will remain single most powerful actor economically,

technologically, and militarily.

Whether we will be able to resolve the new ethical dilemmas

created by new technologies - for example biotechnology

Whether other countries will more openly challenge Washington.

Whether the US loses the science and technology edge to

countries like China and India.

The world economy will continue to grow larger in nominal

terms, whether at a slower or faster pace, but at the cost of

greater volatility and vulnerability. Before the crisis, it was

projected to be 80 percent larger by 2020 than it was in 2000,

36

and average per capita income to be roughly 50 percent higher.

Whether or not that particular projection becomes reality, it

is clear that a profound shake up in the status quo is ahead,

with enormous economic, cultural, and political convulsions.

For example, though hundreds of millions of working age adults

from China and India have already become available for

employment as a result of greater integration in the world

labor market following the liberalization in those countries

and their membership of the WTO, the explosive growth in

numbers of workers becoming available to the global economy

will continue, and not only from China and India. Further, an

increasing number of firms, small and large, will promote and

benefit from the spread of new technologies. Though the

greatest advantages of globalization may well go to countries

and groups that can access and adopt new technologies,

financial, economic and political stability will be even more

important. While it is well known that the West faces the

challenge of aging populations, it is also surprisingly true

that, due to its one-child policy, China's population will

stabilize from 2011 and the country will, first slowly and then

more rapidly, begin to have more retired people than working

people. There is no consensus on what the impact of that

demographic stabilization and reversal will be on China's

economy and politics. For example, I have suggested that the

Chinese instinct will be for greater internal control and, if

that fails at any point, for external adventures to do with any

of the countries on their periphery – from Mongolia and Russia,

through Japan and the countries in north-east and south-east

Asia, and right round to South and indeed Central Asia (in

37

relation to all of which China has historical territorial

disputes of one sort or another). In any case, my view is

that, just as just as Germany rose to salience in the 1960s and

Japan in the 1980s but they have both declined, so China's

salience in world affairs, particularly since the latest

crisis, will start waning from 2011 or 2012.

2.

Create and adapt to change while knowing where you stand

Stay-the-course but shift-the-course when conditions alter

radically

Stay-on-task while building cross-border relationships and

allegiances

Be assertive and persuasive while being able to listen and to

be sensitive to others

Take charge in conditions of uncertainty while utilizing the

talents of everyone around them to solve problems

Drive and energy to overcome challenges while being patient.

? The best books on the history of globalization are: Alex

McGillivray, A Brief History of Globalization, Running Press,

USA, 2006; A.G.Hopkins (ed.), Globalization in World History,

38

Norton, USA, 2002; J.M.Roberts, The New Penguin History of the

World, Penguin, USA, 2004; and Richard Overy, The Times

Complete History of the World, Times Books, USA, 2004.

---------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------

Prabhu Guptara is the WCU Distinguished Professor of Global

Business, Management and Public Policy at William Carey

University, Meghalaya, India. He was also responsible, till

his recent retirement after 15 years of service, for organizing

Think Tanks, Briefings and the Distinguished Speaker series for

one of the largest banks in the world. He is or has been...

His website (www.prabhu.guptara.net) and his Blog, which can

also be accessed directly at www.prabhuguptara.blogspot.com

39