Land-use competition between energy and food The case of climate change mitigation in Ireland

Alessandro Chiodi, James Breen, Trevor Donnellan, Maurizio Gargiulo, James Breen, Paul Deane and Brian Ó Gallachóir

Context

Climate Mitigation

to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 C, global GHG emissions by 2050 should be reduced by at

least 50% below their 1990 levels. IPCC, 7

.. the European Council reconfirmed […] the EU objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by

2050 compared to 99 (EC, 2011)

Food supply

..the world population of 7.2 billion in mid-2013 is projected to increase […] to 9.6 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion

by UN,

..de a d for agricultural products is expected to grow at 1.1 percent per year from

2005/2007- 5 FAO,

Sources: IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. EC, 2011. COM/2011/112. A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social committee and the committee of the Regions, European Commission, Brussels, Belgium. UN, 2013. World population prospects. The 2012 revision. Highlights and advance tables, Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.228. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, US. Alexandratos, N., Bruinsma, J., 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision., ESA Working paper No. 12-03. FAO, Rome, Italy.

Research questions

What is the land-use impact of energy crops in future energy systems?

Will there be enough land for both food and energy?

Does the agri-food production influences choices in the development of future

energy systems?

Why Ireland?

Energy system (in 2011)

Fossil fuels account for 94% of all energy used in Ireland

Imported fossil fuels accounted for 88%

GHG emissions increased by 4.1% in the period 1990-2011 (-18.3% in the EU-28)

Why Ireland?

Agriculture Agri-Food represents ~ 7% of Ireland’s GDP

Agri-food & fisheries - Ireland’s largest indigenous industry

Mostly meat and dairy, most of which (~80%) is exported

Agri-food ≥ 50% of manufacturing exports, by Irish firms.

Growth targets for 2020 Increasing the value of primary output in the agriculture, fisheries and forestry

sector by 33% increase compared to the 2007-2009 average. Increasing the value-added in the agri-food, fisheries and wood products sector by

40% compared to 2008.

Why Ireland?

Land-use (2010)

Why Ireland?

GHG emissions (2011)

Methodology

We use the Irish TIMES model, the energy systems model of Ireland, in conjunction with the recently developed Agri-TIMES module.

It has been developed with the TIMES modelling framework, developed and supported by IEA-ETSAP

Integrated (Energy + Agriculture) prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (20 - 50 years)

Provides technology rich pathways

Scenario analysis

Horizon: 2005 – 2050 (2070)

Website: http://www.ucc.ie/en/energypolicy/irishtimes/

Methodology

Source: Chiodi, A., Donnellan, T., Breen, J., Deane, P., Hanrahan, K., Gargiulo, M., Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2014. Integrating agriculture and energy to assess GHG emissions reduction - a Methodological approach. Climate Policy (in Review)

Mil

k[M

litr

e]

Land Potential

Wa

ter

[Mli

tre

]

Lan

d[M

ha]

Service Demands

Til

lag

e P

rod

uct

s [6

][M

ton

ne

]

Pasture systems [4]

Non-Dairy Cattle

Dairy Cattle

Pasture(i)=

1/Grazing LU(i)

(ha/head)

N2O Emissions (i)

(Soils: Fertilizers, Indirect)CH4 Emissions (i)

(Enteric fermentation, Manure Mgmt)

Sheep

N2O Emissions (i)

(Soils: Fertilizers, N-fix, Residue)

Water Potential

Liv

est

ock

Un

its

[5]

[Mh

ead

]

Dairy Cattle (DietOil)

Swine

Poultry

Others

Manure Digester

Livestock

(Production)

Tillage

Pulses

Potatoes

Sugarbeet

Wheat

Water [Mlitre]

Land [Mha]

Energy Crops

Willow

Mischantus

WheatLand [Mha]

Water [Mlitre]

Biomass [PJ]

Biomass [PJ]

to E

ne

rgy

/

Ag

r.fu

els

N2O Emissions (i)

(Manure Mgmt, Soils: Manure and Sludge to Soils, Pasture, Indirect)

Energy Courier (i)

[PJ]

Barley

Oats

Dairy Cattle (ExtGrazing

Swine (ManMgmt)

Poultry (ManMgmt)

Pasture systems(Nitrification

Inhibitors) [4]

Pasture systems(Inclusion of Clover) [3]

Wheat (for Energy use) [PJ]

N2O Emissions (i)

(Soils: Fertilizers, N-fix, Residue)

Land

[Mha]

Water

[Mlitre]

Grass

Manure [Mtonne]Dairy Cattle (ManMgmt)

Non-Dairy Cattle

(ManMgmt)

Manure [Mtonne]

Manure [Mtonne]

Manure [Mtonne]

Electricity + Heat [PJ]

Energy conversion

[13]

Energy conversion

(New Pratices) [13]

Fuels(i)

[PJ]

CO2 Emissions

(Combustion)

Energy Courier (i) [PJ]

Energy Courier (i) [PJ]

fro

m

En

erg

y S

ect

or

Int Comb (Small)

Int Comb (Large)

MC Fuel Cells

SOFC Fuel Cells

Livestock

(Pasture)

Biogas

[PJ]

Biogas [PJ]

CO2 Emissions

(Combustion)

Renewable energy in a mitigated system

11% of RES (60% bioenergy)

57% of RES (77% bioenergy)

73% of RES (73% bioenergy)

Domestic crops land-usage

Agricultural land area harvested

Agricultural land area harvested

10.1% in 2050

14.2% in 2050

0.8% in 2050

What if land is constrained?

What if land is constrained?

Scenario 2030 2040 2050

CO2-80 143.4 273.3 398.8

CO2-80 LC 144.2 273.1 404.2

CO2-95 198.6 341.0 2716.3

CO2-95 LC 210.8 351.4 4292.9

CO2 abatement cost (€2010/tonne)

Scenario 2030 2040 2050

Import CO2-80 1,291 2,603 4,174

CO2-80 LC 1,351 2,602 5,392

CO2-95 1,744 2,721 7,040

CO2-95 LC 1,851 3,164 7,619

Mining CO2-80 853 1,125 2,348

CO2-80 LC 792 1,120 1,469

CO2-95 955 1,710 2,756

CO2-95 LC 795 1,120 1,472

Primary bioenergy (ktoe)

What if energy and agriculture are

co-optimized?

4.1% in 2050

2.9% in 2050

What if energy and agriculture are

co-optimized?

2005 2030 2050

Sectors\Scenarios GHG-50 GHG-60 GHG-50 GHG-60

Power Generation 37% -56% -55% -75% -93%

Industry (incl. process) 26% -37% -39% -90% -90%

Transport (incl. int. aviation) 149% 96% 68% -75% -84%

Residential and services 1% -57% -60% -63% -81%

Agriculture (CO2, non-CO2) -3% 4% 4% -8% -14%

Transformation 62% -100% -100% -100% -100%

Energy 44% -30% -36% -73% -87%

Non-Energy -3% 1% 1% -19% -23%

Total 24% -17% -20% -50% -60%

GHG sectoral reductions (rel. 1990)

Conclusions

What is the land-use impact of energy crops in future energy systems?

Between 30 kha (REF) and 600 kha (kha) (+ the imports)

Will there be enough land for both food and energy?

Conflicts potentially exist between combating climate change and achieving food

security.

Does the agri-food production influences choices in the development of future energy systems?

This study moves towards a more integrated approach in where mitigation targets

and security of supply are taken into account.

Thank you

www.ucc.ie/energypolicy

and