Fan perceptions of the NFL’s obligation to respond to concussions—The role of antecedents and consequences By Avi Mukherjee and Ric Jensen, Department of Marketing, Montclair State University,Montclair, New Jersey

Background—NFL Concussions

The NFL has come under media and public scrutiny because so many players suffer concussions while playing the sport.

Much of the media and the public are skeptical about the NFL’s response to concussions.

Public reaction to NFL management of concussions may influence fandom and buzz (word of mouth).

The History of NFL Concussions

Several NFL Players have Suffered Horrific Injuries

Basis of This Study We decided to survey college students to investigate

the extent to which they are aware of concussion issues, and to gather their perceptions of the serious of NFL concussion issues and how the league is responding.

Questions for the survey were developed by carefully examining opinion polls, survey results and media reports about the NFL’s concussion problem.

From an academic point of view, the survey was developed by examining studies about the public’s point of view about health and safety issues related to sports, and by examining contagion theory in a marketing context (e.g., negative publicity can harm the image of related goods and services).

Theoretical Background

To explore the extent to which fans perceive that playing football in the NFL and other levels is dangerous and causes concussions (Bennett, 2013)

To explore the extent to which fans perceive the NFL might be suffering from brand damage because there is growing concern about the safety of playing football at all levels (Armstrong, 2007)

Survey Development

We developed a written survey that consisted of 12 closed-ended questions about demographics, & whether respondents played football and other sports

34 7-point Likert scale questions that asked respondents○ The extent to which they are sports fans○ The extent to which they are aware of concussions○ How they view the NFL’s intent in managing concussions○ The extent to which their opinions about concussions may affect future behavior

○ The extent to which they feel the NFL should compensate concussion victims

Administering the Survey

The survey was administered to a convenience sample—students at a northeast university who were taking classes in sports marketing, international tourism, and international marketing taught by one of lead investigators.

The surveys were administered in January 2014. Students were given written surveys and

returned the surveys in the classroom

Data Analysis

A code book was developed to transfer the results of the survey into a format that could be entered into a spreadsheet

Data were entered by hand by into Excel SPSS software was used to perform standard

statistical analysis, including factor loadings, factor analysis, regression and statistical significance, etc.

Results of Factor Analysis

Factor loadings and analysis initially identified 7 factors from the data

○ F1 [Fandom]○ F2 [Future Behavior]○ F3 [Awareness of Concussions]○ F4 [Referral Behavior]○ F5 [How the NFL Should Respond to Concussions]○ F6 [Intent of the NFL in Managing Concussions]○ F7 [Intent of the NFL in Managing Concussions]

We combined F6 and F7

Themes Identified by Factor Analysis

• F3-Aware of Concussions• NFL players suffer injury• Seen concussions on TV• NFL has changed rules• NFL is dangerous to play

• F4-Referral Behavior• Encourage others play

football• F5-Obligation of NFL

• Compensate football players

• F6-Intent of NFL• To improve player health• To avoid being sued• To protect the NFL brand

F1-Fandom Die-hard sports fan Die-hard NFL fan NFL affects my self-esteem

Attended NFL games Bought NFL apparel Wore NFL apparel Follow NFL in mass media Post about NFL in social media

F2-Future Behavior Attend future NFL games, watch on TV, wear apparel

F scores for Selected Factors• F3-Aware of Concussions

• .691 NFL players suffer injury• .614 Seen concussions on TV• .579 Know NFL has changed

rules• .548 NFL is the most dangerous

sport • F4-Future Referral Behavior

• .886 Would encourage friends to have their children play HS football,

• .854 To play college football • F5-The Obligation of NFL

• .579 I know someone who suffered concussions from football

• .817 NFL should compensate football players who played in NFL, or any level of football (.768)

• F6- The Intent of NFL• .648 To improve player health• .804 To avoid being sued• .888 To protect the NFL brand

F1-Fandom .703 Die-hard sports fan

.856 Die-hard NFL fan

.694 NFL affects my self-esteem

.766 Attended NFL games

.810 Bought NFL apparel

.780 Wore NFL apparel

691 Follow NFL in mass media

.796 Post about NFL in social media

F2-Future Fan Behavior .914 Attend future NFL games

.926 Follow NFL in media

.928 Wear NFL apparel

Pearson Correlations between Factors.258 F1 [FANDOM] and F2 [FUTURE BEHAVIOR].592 F1 and F3 [AWARENESS OF CONCUSSIONS] .304 F1 and F4 [REFERRAL BEHAVIOR].092 F1 and F5 [OBLIGATION OF THE NFL].246 F1 and F6 [INTENT OF THE NFL].147 F2 and F3.380 F2 and F4.228 F2 and F5.063 F2 and F6.158 F3 and F4.-095 F3 and F5.277 F3 and F6.192 F4 and F5.199 F4 and F6-.258 F5 and F6

Model Development

The best fit for the data is a multi-step structural equation model based that uses antecedents and consequences (Bagozzi, 2012).

F5 = ƒ (F1, F3, F6)F2 = ƒ (F5)F4 = ƒ (F5)

Conceptual Development of the Model

H1Extent of Fandom

Intent of the NFL in managing

concussions

Awareness of

concussions

Obligation of the NFL to deal with concussions

H2 Future fan behavior

Future referral behavior

H1

H2

H3H5

H4

Discussion

• The key factor that drives the model is F5• F5 describes the extent to which respondents feel

the NFL should compensate those who suffered concussions while playing the game.

• F5 is an expression of • The extent to which respondents are fans• Their awareness of football-related concussions, • How they view the NFL’s intent in managing

concussions (to improve player health, to avoid being sued, to protect the brand).

• F5 drives fan behavior and referral behavior• The extent to which they will follow the NFL, and

the extent to which they will encourage their friends to allow their children to play football

Results of Regression Analysis Model 1

Table 1. Regression Results of Fandom, Awareness of Concussions, and the Perceived Intent of the NFL on the Obligation of the NFL to Deal with Concussions

Dependent variable

Independent variables

Hypothesis Standardized Parameter Estimates

t-value

Model R2

The Obligation of the NFL

Fandom H1 0.263 2.145* 0.112

Awareness of Concussions

H2 -0.174 -1.408 F [3, 92df] =3.86**

The Intent of the NFL in dealing with concussions

H3 -0.275 -2.673**

**Significant at the p<0.05 level *Significant at the p<0.01 level

Results of Regression Analysis Model 2

Table 2. Regression Results of the Obligation of the NFL to Deal with Concussions on Future Fan Behavior.

Dependent variable

Independent variables

Hypothesis Standardized Parameter Estimates

T-value Model R2

Future Fan Behavior

The Obligation of the NFL to Deal with Concussions

H4 0.228 2.268* 0.052

F [1,94 df] = 5.144*

**Significant at the p<0.05 level *Significant at the p<0.01 level

Results of Regression Analysis Model 3

Table 3. Regression Results of the Obligation of the NFL to Deal with Concussions on Future Referral Behavior.

Dependent variable

Independent variables

Hypothesis Standardized Parameter Estimates

T-value Model R2

Future Referral Behavior

The Obligation of the NFL to Deal with Concussions

H5 0.192 1.9* 0.037F [1.94]=3.612*

**Significant at the p<0.05 level *Significant at the p<0.01 level

Implications for Managers

• When examining the extent to which people believe the NFL has a concussion problem, we need to consider how closely they follow the sport, how much they know about concussions and the NFL’s response, and why they feel the NFL acted in the way it does to manage concussions.

• We are likely to get a wide range of responses.

• These factors may strongly affect the extent to which people believe the NFL should compensate people who may have been football.

• Compensate or not compensate everyone who has been injured

Insights for Sports Marketers

• If our hypothesis is correct, the NFL might be at risk of losing some fans because they feel the league has mismanaged concussion issues, and has not effectively communicated key marketing messages about this issue.

• A failure to persuasively convince the public that the NFL is solving football-related concussions has the potential to harm attendance and ticket sales, TV ratings, and merchandising.

• If our hypothesis is correct, a perception that the NFL has mismanaged concussion issues may decrease the fan base over the long-term as parents become unwilling to have their children play football.

Limitations

• The data did not show strong correlations between the extent to which respondents played football and other sports and how they viewed these issues.

• This study was a convenience sample of college students at one university at one point in time.

Future Research Directions

• Because concussions are likely to be an ongoing issue over the long-term, it would be beneficial to conduct a longitudinal study that tracks public opinions over time.

• Studies should try to correlate the links between public attitudes about concussions and fan behavior about the NFL (TV ratings, attendance, merchandise sales, etc.).

• Surveys of other respondents are needed.

• Football is not the only sport that causes injury, surveys of public perceptions about health risks of other sports are needed.

Questions?