Conservative Intellectuals

Still under development Zeljko ZIdaric

War of Ideas and Identities

2000

2010

2020

Values

Iden

tity

Them

Us

Problem: THEY are creating strong PULL in their direction.

Next

Party Leader

Finance

Politicians

Media

Frontline

Special Interest Groups

Constituents

Voters

Think Tanks

Church

Inte

llect

uals

Members

Strategy Advisers

Partners

Party

Who is “US” = Political Ecosystem

Experts

Next

Comms

The Intellectual

Public  

Public Intellectual

Top Intellectuals

Academics Philosophers

Writers Marx

Friedman Hayek

Media Teachers Activists

•  Idea Generator

•  Re-Packager

•  Thought Leader

•  Influencer

Intellectual: Occupational category, people whose occupations deal primarily with ideas.

“There are many Keynesians and Marxians who have never read a line of Keynes or Marx.”

J.A. Schumpeter

Producers

Distributers

Politicians In

telli

gent

sia

Objec+ves  of  the  Intellectual  

Who  do  I  trust    

is  capable  of    

improving  my    standard  of  living?  +  

Influence    voter  decision  process  

Shi8  the  “Window    of  Poli+cal  Possibility”  

Desirable  1  

Undesirable  Old  

New

 

Overton

 Windo

w  Desirable  0  

Poli+cal  Ecosystem  Products  of  the  Intelligentsia  

The Public

Intellectuals Intellectuals – Top Tier •  Define new paradigms •  Original work •  Complicated books / essays

Intellectuals – Second Tier •  Create ammunition •  Support new paradigm •  New perspective / argument •  Mass market books / essays

Distributers •  Support party or S.I.G. •  Reinforcement / support •  Mass market comments,

articles, blogs, videos.

A B

Distributers

Intelligentsia

Influ

ence  

Intellectuals and Communications

Theore:cians    

Propagandists    

Start  a  poli+cal    movement  

Follow  close  behind    

Develop  intellectual  founda+ons  

Put  program  into  the  words  of  the  people,  

and  spread  it.  

Definitions

Ability for rational thought The capacity to grasp and manipulate complex ideas Opposite = dullness, slowness

Intellect

Add judgment Ability to learn and understand to deal with new problems Opposite = stupidity, dimwit

Intelligence

Ability to combine intellect, knowledge, experience, and judgment in a way to produce a coherent understanding. Opposite = foolishness

Wisdom

Character

B  Drive  Safely  

Intellect  =  Car  Horsepower  Intelligence  =  Driver  

Ability  to  drive  car  

Wisdom  =  Arriving  at  

des+na+on  safely    A  

Definitions

Understanding Your Opponent

text “Everything must justify its existence before the judgment seat of Reason, or give up existence.” Who of you has read The Communist Manifesto? Should you? Friedrich Engels

(German Socialist philosopher, 1820-1895)

Accountability

Intellectuals are free to be scandalously asinine without harming their reputation. Engineers and doctors are accountable for their professional actions.

We need to ensure that their intellectuals are held accountable for their failures.

Key  Skills  

Critical Thinking Salesmanship

Cri+cal  Thinking  

Find solutions to problems by understanding the problems and filtering academic thought. Keys to success

•  Discovery •  Filtering •  Comprehension •  Evaluation •  Reason •  Synthesis •  Application

•  Thinking about thinking •  Quality control of the mind

Salesmanship  

Not only communicate but to sell the new ideas so that they are accepted and integrated into the individual’s worldview. Keys to Success

•  Understand customer •  Understand needs •  Provide superior solution •  Effective communications

•  Think in terms of people •  Emotions rule sales

Objectives of the Intellectual

Every issue has multiple facets. From what angle do we look at the issue and create a position and argument. Q. What is important to our constituents – voters?

A  

B  

The Intellectual Process

Idea #1 Idea

#2

Idea #3

Idea #4

Idea #5

Input: Original Ideas

Intellectual Process

Output: New Idea

Supply the distributers with new ideas in the battle for public opinion. Provide arguments for our positions and policies. Provide counter-arguments against opposition.

Identify Analyze

Filter Synthesize

Poli+cal  Ecosystem  Re-­‐Packaging  the  Ideas  

Uni 20%

+/- 10%

High School + 60% +/- 10%

< High School 20%

Academics

Educa+on  Levels  in  Society  

A  

B  

1 Person = 1 Vote If our objective is to win elections who should be our target audience?

Com

mon

Man

Edu

cate

d

Education Levels

Countries are ranked in descending order of the percentage of 25-34 year-olds who have attained tertiary education. Source: OECD. Table A1.3a. (www.oecd.org/edu/eag2012).

Organization Chart

Campaign  Manager  

Research  /  Strategy   Comms  &  Media   Fundraising   Field  

Opera:ons  Office  

Opera:ons  

Policy  Dev   Paid  Media   Events   Logis+cs   Technology  

Compe++ve  Analysis   Earned  Media   Small  Dona+ons   Onsite  Planner   Logis+cs  

X   X   X   X  

Staff  /  Volunteers  Social  Media   Large  Dona+ons   GOTV  

Leader  

Partner  Rela:ons  

Z  

X  

Intellectual  

Internal  

External  

Timelines of Influence

Elec+o

n  Da

y  1  

Ele

ctio

n D

ay 2

Cam

paig

n

Cam

paig

n

Learn  

Build

Fund

rais

ing

Pre

-cam

paig

n

Maintain

Influence of Intellectuals

“Social Momentum” – When do we start influencing?

Time

Push

Push 1 X 3

X 3

X 3

X

Cha

nge B

Stra

tegy

A

Stra

tegy

B

Cha

nge A

Push 2

Push 3

Is A = B ? A >B ? B > A ?

Which strategy brings the greatest desired results?

Social Momentum – Thought Experiment

One big push During the election

Three small pushes 2 before + 1 during election

Ele

ctio

n

Public  Opinion  Original  

Problems - The Ivory Tower

Academia

Overemphasis on specialized knowledge + Disconnect from real world and mundane knowledge + Disregard for past experiences = Bad utopian decisions

Problem - Ability and Credibility

All  knowledge  

Area  of    Exper+se  

“Specialized”  <1%  

X  

Y  

Z  

How much credibility should

•  an actor have in economics? •  a linguist in foreign policy?

•  A mathematician in social policy?

Keep your intellectuals inside their area of expertise Never forget the variable called “human nature”

Would you let your urologist perform brain surgery?

Mundane  >99%  

*  *  

Problem - Past Failure

Soviet central planning – on paper it sounded good … but

Disregard for mundane knowledge and human nature = spectacular failure

Marx, Engels and Lenin were by no means DUMB

Future Failures

If economic central planning failed Why would anyone assume that social central planning (social engineering) would succeed?

Forecasting Economics

Due to: Large number of variables Complex relationships Human nature Predicting the results of any sort of economic meddling is Like forecasting the weather.

Every step of real movement is more important than a ���dozen programmes. If, therefore, it was not possible – and the conditions of the item did not permit it – to go beyond the Eisenach programme, one should simply have concluded an agreement for action against the common enemy. Karl Marx to F. Engels Die Neue Zeit, Bd. 1, No. 18, 1890-91

Analysis Paralysis