Policy Response to: House of Commons Political and Constitutional Reform

Committee

Inquiry: Voter engagement in the UK

Date: 20th February 2014

Name: Dr Rebecca Rumbul

Address: Wales Governance Centre, Pierhead Building, Cardiff Bay, Cardiff,

CF99 1NA

Email: Rumbulra@Cardiff.ac.uk

Contact number: 02920 688 056

About the Wales Governance Centre

The Wales Governance Centre is a Cardiff University research centre undertaking innovative

research into all aspects of the law, politics, government and political economy of Wales, as

well the wider UK and European contexts of territorial governance. A key objective of the

WGC is to facilitate and encourage informed public debate of key developments in Welsh

governance not only through its research, but also through events and postgraduate teaching.

The Centre is sponsored and supported by Cardiff University’s Law School and School of

European Studies, while also collaborating with scholars from across the University. The WGC

enjoys formal ties with both WISERD and the Institute of Welsh Affairs while also maintaining

close cooperative relationships with colleagues in other institutions across Wales, the UK,

Europe and beyond.

Introduction

Whilst consideration of recent voter engagement and turnout relates to all those aged 18 and

above, this submission will focus on turnout and engagement of ‘younger voters’ aged 18 –

29. The political engagement experience of this age group is distinct from older voters, and

any consideration of voter engagement should examine these distinct concerns. The submission

will also consider issues, education and services concerned with those aged under 18 that may

affect, improve or depress turnout once the individual becomes able to vote.

Young voters: Generational and Lifecycle Effects

Political engagement of young people needs to be examined in the context of two different

effects – Lifecycle and Generational.

Lifestyle effects take into account the relative high mobility and activity of young people

during their early adult lives that can prevent them from registering to vote or devoting time

to political engagement. During this period, studying for further or higher education, moving

often for university or work, securing driving licenses, and extended travelling are priority

activities. However, the lifecycle effect demonstrates that a young person’s growing

diversification of responsibilities related to becoming an adult, such as purchasing a house or

having children, and the growing stability that accompanies such change, will eventually mean

that they come to adopt the traditional behaviours of adulthood.

Assuming voting is a socialised behaviour that young people have experienced through their

parents or older social groups, voting and political engagement will be one of those adult

activities that these people then take up. Contemporary studies of young people’s political

engagement in the USA at least in part support this, and demonstrate that the ‘older’ young

people were more likely to investigate specific campaign issues and to vote than their younger

counterparts1.

A lack of voter turnout amongst young people due to the lifecycle effect is therefore

disappointing in its lack of representation of younger people’s preferences, but not in itself an

indicator of overall declining engagement.

Generational effects are significantly more concerning for those attempting to maintain or

increase voter engagement against a backdrop of decline. Such effects are the result of early

experiences of politics and political engagement in a young person’s life, and inform their

attitudes and opinions as they progress in their lifecycle. Therefore, negative experiences or

exposure to negative politics early in the lifecycle are likely to inhibit voting later in the

lifecycle. Generational effects are ongoing, incremental, and are transmitted inter-

1 Kushin M. J., Yamamoto M. (2010). Did social media really matter? College students’ use of online media and

political decision making in the 2008 Election. Mass Communication & Society, 13, 608–630

generationally, and parental behaviours that assign a low value to political engagement can

not only be emulated by younger people, but can often be slightly amplified. Many scholars

link the decline in voting amongst younger people to a wider generational decline in

participation in civil society.

What are the main factors that have contributed to low voter turnout in recent UK

elections?

Voter registration and turnout is an expression of individual external and internal political

efficacy, that is, the level of belief that the individual holds that their vote can influence

government and that government will be responsive to collective demands of civil society.

Political cynicism:

Occurs when young people develop a negative orientation towards government and

politicians

Is expressed by the belief that the government is not delivering its promises, and thus

not satisfying the needs of the public

Is also expressed by disbelief in the possibility of politicians’ good intentions when

dealing with others.

Direct engagement between politician/campaign and voter is shown to increase trust and

increase turnout, however these direct links are declining2 in the age of mass communication. A

generational shift has occurred in the political attitudes of young people, manifesting as a

gradual shift away from traditional party-oriented forms of political engagement. Young

people are now less confident in differentiating between parties, and undecided voters are

less likely to turn out to vote, particularly where negative campaigning on all sides has been

employed3.

Identification with a party, if not a specific politician, is considered key in voter turnout,

however:

Fewer young people than ever before now identify with a specific political party

Amongst young people, party membership has decreased from 8% in 1964, to 1% in

20104

This is mirrored across age groups, and clearly shows a generational decline that will

further depress party membership over time.

2 Gerber, A. S., Green, D. P., & Larimer, C. W. (2008). Social pressure and voter turnout: Evidence from a large-

scale field experiment. American Political Science Review, 102(01), 33-48. 3 Carraro, L., Gawronski, B., & Castelli, L. (2010). Losing on all fronts: The effects of negative versus positive

person‐based campaigns on implicit and explicit evaluations of political candidates. British Journal of Social Psychology, 49(3), 453-470. 4 British Election Survey 1964 & British Election Survey 2010

Linked to this is a lack of visibility of politicians that young people consider to reflect their own

experiences. The popularly televised politicians (Government Ministers / Shadow Ministers

/ Party Leaders) appear not only generic, but physically and behaviourally distant from

young people. Where young people are unable to identify individually with politicians, they

are less likely to make effort to turn out to vote for them, even if they believe their policies to

be favourable5.

What are the main factors that affect voter registration?

Lifecycle factors relating to mobility such as:

frequently changing address,

living between university and familial residences,

living in shared houses

taking extended periods to travel

often act as a significant barrier to voter registration amongst young people. Due to the

length of time and bureaucracy involved in voter registration, significant numbers of young

people fail to register in sufficient time to take part in elections. Even where young people are

resident over a longer period of time, young people are more likely to wait until the last

minute to vote than experienced voters6, and if these young people have not registered, they

are unable to participate.

Educational lifecycle factors also contribute to a level of apathy and lack of confidence

amongst younger voters which reduces their inclination to register.

Many young people in the UK receive little or no school-age education on the

contemporary political and constitutional structures of the UK, and therefore are

unprepared to negotiate the political landscape at the time of an election.

Young people growing up in devolved areas of the UK are even further

disadvantaged, as the additional layer of politics creates confusion over which

government is responsible for specific policy areas.

This lack of educational emphasis on current affairs during a young person’s academic

career also contributes to a belief that politics is not important for them, and is for

other people7.

5 Henn, M., Weinstein, M. and Forrest, S. (2005), Uninterested Youth? Young People's Attitudes towards Party

Politics in Britain. Political Studies, 53: 556–578. 6 Fournier P., Nadeau R., Blais A., Gidengil E., Nevitte N.(2004). Time-of-voting decision and susceptibility to

campaign effects. Electoral Studies, 23, 661–681 7 Harris, A., Wyn, J., & Younes, S. (2010). Beyond apathetic or activist youth ‘Ordinary’young people and

contemporary forms of participation. Young, 18(1), 9-32.

It is not until later life, when this age group come to actively consume news media, that they

may have the confidence and sufficient information to register to vote.

To what extent does the public’s perception of MPs, Parliament, the Government and

events such as Prime Minister’s questions affect voter registration and turnout?

What role does the media play in this context?

Young people’s perception of government and their own level of political efficacy is heavily

influenced by the representation of government and politicians across media platforms, e.g.:

Young people see only noise and confusing, cynical bluster when watching PMQ’s, and

have little understanding of how debate in the House works8.

First-time voters have been shown to be more susceptible to television panel debates9,

therefore, how politicians represent themselves during these specific events is key to

engaging individuals in the legitimacy and necessity of political process as well as in

attracting voters to their party.

Broad representation of politics across media platforms has an important role to play in

developing voter efficacy and increasing voter turnout amongst young people. Studies show

that use of internet, talk radio and television in accessing political information actually

increases political cynicism in young people, and has a negative effect on political

engagement10. This is due to the nature of media content available concerning politics and

covers both direct information from parties (such as quotes, speeches, party information) and

content produced by media outlets themselves (such as news stories, comments, blogs). These

studies show that young voters’ use of the internet allows them to be more informed about

politics, but the information accessed does not make them feel like the government would be

effective, thereby decreasing the likelihood of them participating in the political process.

Whilst some studies11 have found that active consumption of political news from any type of

media platform increases likelihood of political engagement, in younger people this is often

‘passive’ engagement, such as:

commenting on posts / tweets

8 Dean, D. (2006). View from the armchair: why young people took no interest and no notice of the campaigns.

The marketing of political parties: political marketing at the 2005 British general election, 231. 9 Aalberg T., Jenssen A. (2007). Do television debates in multiparty systems affect viewers? A quasi-

experimental study with first-time voters. Scandinavian Political Studies, 30, 115–135. 10 Lee T. (2005). Media effects on political disengagement revisited: A multiple-media approach. Journalism and

Mass Communication Quarterly, 82, 416–433 AND Lee T.(2005). Media effects on political disengagement revisited: A multiple-media approach. Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, 82, 416–433 11Austin L., Halvorson E. (2008). What drives political activity in college students? An application of the situational theory of publics. Paper presented at International Communication Association 2008 Annual Convention, Quebec, Canada.

blogging

‘liking’ pages on Facebook

signing online petitions.

And is also focused on ‘single-issue’ politics, such as:

tuition fees

boycotting certain brands

campaigning on climate change

This combines into an overall light-touch and volatile approach to political engagement

that rejects traditional forms of engagement in favour of online and social movements led

by social groups, civil society and private sector.

Whilst young people are increasingly receiving political information from online sources, and

have been shown to be more susceptible to online peer influence, only those individuals with

high levels of political efficacy actively engage through this platform. Rather than mobilising

the less active people to become involved in politics, social news media may merely be

becoming a space to create a common political agenda for those who actively care about the

process. Young people that are politically disengaged remain so, while the engaged utilise

more online and social media to participate in politics12.

What socioeconomic factors affect registration and turnout and what, if anything, can we

learn from this about how to improve voter registration and turnout?

Voter registration and turnout has declined sharply amongst young people that are

considered ‘resource poor’, that is, young people with lower levels of educational attainment,

and from families with lower income levels13.

The decline amongst this group has been greater than amongst young people with higher

levels of educational attainment and from more affluent families, and this pattern is mirrored

when looking at non-voting forms of political engagement14.

The fact that voting is a habit learned early which is less likely to be acquired in later life,

coupled with generational effects of familial non-voting behaviour and a negative

representation of politics in the media, means that this cycle may be likely to continue in

12

Ha, L. S., Wang, F., Fang, L., Yang, C., Hu, X., Yang, L., ... & Morin, D. (2013). Political Efficacy and the Use of Local and National News Media Among Undecided Voters in a Swing State A Study of General Population Voters and First-Time College Student Voters. Electronic News, 7(4), 204-222. 13

Zukin, C.,et al.(2006).A new engagement?: political participation, civic life, and the changing American citizen Oxford: Oxford University Press 14

Blais, A., & Loewen, P. (2009). Youth electoral engagement in Canada (p. 10). Elections Canada.

‘resource poor’ young people, and gradually increase the gap between those who vote and

those who do not.

What are the costs to society of low voter registration and turnout?

Research has shown that young people suffer disproportionally from cuts to government-

funded services, and this can be in part attributed to the fact that parties are oriented

towards their solid voting base – the older generation.

Low registration and turnout amongst young people therefore perpetuates a cycle of

negativity in which young people do not vote because politicians are not offering any

attractive policies to them, and politicians do not target their policies at them because they

don’t believe that they will vote.

The cost to society is a generational shift towards declining voter engagement and a future in

which only a small class of individuals possess the confidence and information to vote. This is a

future in which, logically, policies are aimed at a small, engaged ‘resource rich’ majority, and

a political non-engaged underclass without representation emerges.

Improving voter turnout

What are the principal ways in which voter registration and turnout could be improved?

Registration and turnout amongst young people is declining across the developed, English-

speaking world, however this process is occurring most rapidly in the UK. Countries such as the

USA and Australia have comprehensive educational programmes focusing on citizenship, and

in these countries, young people are more likely to vote and more likely to believe that voting

is important (British young people that thought voting was very important amounted to 14%,

compared to 42% in Australia and 55% in the USA15). Programmes of political and

constitutional education throughout primary and secondary education focusing on current

affairs would provide young people with the confidence and information to enable them to

vote.

Inclusion of political and constitutional education at Key Stages 2 – 5, to include current

affairs and analysis of the parties, would significantly improve this issue. This should be

delivered solely as part of the history or geography curriculum, but should focus on

contemporary politics.

Studies show that voting is a habit developed at an early age, and it is therefore vital to

provide young people with the tools they need to enable them to vote as soon as possible

after their 18th birthday. Some reports have recommended incentivising voting or penalising

15

International social survey program 2004: Citizenship

non-voting for first time voters. In the case of states that utilise compulsory voting, non-voting is

penalised, and this is found to be effective in increasing turnout. Whilst there is currently no

research evidence that providing a monetary incentive or penalty will increase turnout in the

UK, this could logically provide the ‘nudge’ required to increase registration and turnout.

Provision of a non-monetary incentive / penalty to encourage young voters to the first

voting opportunity that arises after their 18th birthday may reverse the current decline.

The time-requirement and bureaucracy involved in registering to vote is cumbersome to young

people, especially those living between university and familial homes, those sharing residences

on short-term contracts, and those coming in and out of the country due to travel. Whilst filling

out an online form, printing it, signing it and posting it doesn’t sound like much effort to

exercise a civic right, in reality, it is a barrier that prevents young voters from engaging.

Reform of the registration procedure to enable complete online registration that can

be processed within a very short period of a voting opportunity would increase the

turnout of younger voters.

To what extent could electoral reform, rebuilding political parties or changes to party

funding improve public engagement and voter turnout?

A clear preference has now been demonstrated amongst young people for cause-oriented

forms of participation around single issues, rather than traditional party membership and

identification. Additionally, more ‘light-touch’ engagement opportunities are favoured by this

group, such as using online apps, media pages, surveys and petitions. As such, any reform of

both electoral and non-electoral political participation should consider provision of opportunity

for young people to mobilise in this fashion.

Political parties should take at least some of the responsibility for this, and consulting

young people widely on developing manifesto pledges or how the party should vote

in the commons through mobile apps would reduce the distance between politics and

the voter, and give young people greater ownership over the political process.

In what ways could new technologies be used to encourage people to vote?

The importance of using new technologies to engage younger voters cannot be overstated.

The average teenager now spends over 8 hours per day using different media platforms, and

in this time, is bombarded with a diverse landscape of information, misinformation and

opinion.

The development and use of mobile apps by both parties and the institutions of

government should be a priority in engaging young people in politics and voting. Such

apps could cover a broad spectrum of functions, from updating individuals on party

policies, to reminding people of upcoming voting opportunities, to enabling people to

cast their general election vote online rather than attending a polling station.

What would be the advantages and disadvantages of allowing voters to register on the

day of an election?

Allowing registration on the day of an election would facilitate increased turnout for young

people. Young people are more likely to wait until the last minute to vote, and may not even

decide to do so until the day in question, and as a result, often find themselves unable to

participate.

Whilst provision of such a registration service may be cumbersome for the agencies

involved in voter registration, the benefit in enabling participants from an under-

represented group to vote would be symbolically, if not numerically, significant.