Climate change natural – Impact on water resources in Himalaya

Ritesh Arya405, 7a, Sector 20, Panchkula, Haryana India 134116Email: aryadrillers@gmail.com, www.aryadriler.com

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Abstract:

Present paper is based on discovery of paleoclimatic signatures made by Indus glacier/river on thegranites of Ladakh batholiths on the banks of river Indus since 11714 years. Author discovered thesesignatures while exploring, drilling and developing groundwater on the borders of China(Changthang)and Pakistan( Siachen, Kargil) in NW Indian Himalaya for Army and civil population for the last 12 years.These signatures resembles alphabet C, hence named Aryas C cycles. Cyclicity of cooling, warming andagain cooling can be very well understood by writing alphabet C. The starting point of alphabet Crepresents the cooling phase (ICE age) and as we continue to draw the curve there is gradual curvilineartransformation from cooling maxima to warming phase. Half of the C curve represents the warmingmaxima (an event marked by flooding, cyclones, sea level rise, desertification, biodiversity explosion,increase in GHGs) and completion of alphabet C represents the culmination of the gradual curvilineartransformation from warming to cooling coinciding with ICE age (marked by squeezing and freezing ofwater resources, glaciations, desertification, competition, mass extinctions, decrease in GHGs).Transferring this sentence geologically means that since there is less water in the system during ICE ageso there is less erosion hence we get starting and end of C cycle but as the temperature increases the rateof erosion increases hence the curvilinear depressions are created making the upper half of the warmingcycling, center of alphabet C is marked by warming maxima. Then there is again gradual transformationfrom warming to cooling and as the water in the system decreases there is less erosion therefore we get ageomorphological feature which resembles the lower half of alphabet C finally ending into the ICE age.So uniformity in the paleoclimatic signatures discovered in Ladakh Himalaya which resembles alphabet C, for the first time geologically and scientifically explains cooling, warming and again cooling phase innature to be a natural climate cyclic process. Granites played important role in the preservation of theseclimatic signatures because they are very hard and compact as compared to other rocks found in theHimalayas which are fragile and susceptible to faster rate of weathering and erosion makingpreservation of the signatures tedious task. Taphonomical analysis of these C curves in massive Granitesshow great role of lithology and geomorphology in preservation and understanding the cyclicity of theseclimate signatures which have been beautifully preserved in the Ladakh Batholith in NW Himalaya.Author observed 10 such cycles in the site,8 complete and 2 half cycle. Geomathematical modeling ofthese paleoclimatic signatures show that after every 4 cycles there is a half cycle. According to this modeleach complete C cycle is of 1338.6 years and half C cycle is 669.3 years. Based on this model author hastried to correlate the paleo climatic and geological events in the past and found that lot of events can be

explained by Aryas C cycles. Important question now is which part of the C cycle are we now. Seeing thepaleoclimatic signature in the Batholiths of Ladakh we are presently in the warming maxima times andare curvilinearly moving into the cooling phase finally culminating into ICE age in 2344 years,represented by the lower part of alphabet C. So enjoy global warming by building sustainable habitats ingeologically favorable locations because the next warming maxima will be in 3014. Author also tries torelate circumstantial evidences with the dates of warming and cooling proposed in this model whichcoincides with the same.

Keywords : Climate change, water resources Himalayas, Aryas C cycle Lakes, Rivers, floods, submergence

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

“1. Introduction”

“Climate change is a natural cyclicphenomenon like day and nightcomprising of global warming andcooling, one compliments the otherlike day and night, wherein globalwarming acts as a transportingagency responsible for transportingall materials deposited duringglobal cooling times, floods andcyclones are main agents of globalwarming”. Dr Arya in Globalconference on global warming 2009Turkey. Global warming times leadsto curvilinear increase in globaltemperatures inducing glacial meltleading to increase in water in theearth system causing sea levelrise, flash flooding, cyclones andincrease in green house gases. Onthe other hand global cooling ismarked by curvilinear decrease intemperatures leading to squeezing ofwater in the earth system causingglaciation, avalanches, extinctionand decrease in green house gases.If global warming can be relatedwith water increase effecting

evolution and diversification oflife forms, cooling is responsiblefor mass deaths and extinctionssimply related to shortage of foodand water resources. If coolingleads to desertification warmingleads to dedesertification. Thesenatural climatic cyclic processeshave been in existence since timeimmemorial like day and night andthere was no confusion in theirbeing natural till UNIPCC was formedto examine the man made impact onwarming. This was formed with theprimary aim of collecting data whichsuggested man made impact onwarming. Then ozone depletion, GHGsand later CO2 etc induced due topollution created by manmadeactivities were related with socalled unprecedented increase intemperature in the recent past.Graphs /trends have shown figureswhich suggest rapid increase intemperatures by 2030 if the presentincreases of GHGs are not checked.This committee starting compilingevery data related to manmadewarming and completely ignored thenatural cyclic reasons for climatechange hence holding manmade

activities primarily responsible forunprecedented increase in globaltemperatures.Present paper simplyexplains the curvilinear cyclicityof these climate cycles and explainsthe unprecedented changes intemperatures to global warmingmaxima which is part of Aryas Ccycles. These C cycles have beenremarkably preserved in thebatholiths of Ladakh in NWHimalayas. Uniformity in thethickness in the cyclicity of theseC cycles is a matter of geological,geomorphological and taphonomicalinterest in understanding cyclicityof the impact of climate changesince the last glaciation around11715 years ago from present.

These C cycles and other evidencesto support the natural cyclicity ofthe climate change are listed below.

“2 Methodology”Present study is result ofcollection of borewell sample datafrom the tubewells drilled in thehigh altitude cold mountain desertsof Ladakh Himalaya. The studies weresubstantiated by geological andgeomorphological observations madeby the author over the last decadeswhile exploring and drillinggroundwater resources to providedrinking water to the Army and civilpopulation in the border areas ofLadakh with Pakistan and China.

“Figure 1 Indus Glacier discovered in Ladakh”

“3. Evidences”

C cycles -Paleoclimatic signatures:- These are impressions of impact of global cooling, warming and cooling by the action of glacier/river Indus on thebatholiths of Ladakh. These impressions resemble alphabet C hence know as Aryas C cycles

”Figure 2 C cycles – preserved in the granites of Ladakh Batholith”

Taphonomical analysis of thesepaleoclimatic signatures revealinteresting relationship between theimpact of global cooling, warming

and again cooling activity on thebatholiths of Ladakh. The hardnessand compactness of the granites arethe main reason for the preservationof these beautiful signatures ofIndus Glacier and river actionrepresenting global cooling andwarming on the rocks. During coolingtimes water systems are frozen(glaciations) as a result of whichthere is less of erosion hence theimpressions on the granites protruderesembling upper and lower part ofalphabet C. During warming times theglaciers melt increasing water inthe system as a result there doesmore of erosion and transportationwhich is reflected in the form ofdepression resemble the central partof alphabet C. These signaturesresemble alphabet C, hence namedArya’s C cycles. Cyclicity ofcooling, warming and again coolingcan be very well understood bywriting alphabet C. The startingpoint of alphabet C represents thecooling phase (ICE age) and as wecontinue to draw the curve there isgradual curvilinear transformationfrom cooling to warming phase. Halfof the C curve represents thewarming maxima (an event marked byflooding, cyclones, sea level rise)and completion of alphabet Crepresents the culmination of thegradual curvilinear transformationfrom warming to cooling maximacoinciding with ICE age.Transferring this sentencegeologically means that since thereis less water in the system during

ICE age so there is less erosionhence we get starting and end of Ccurve but as the temperatureincreases the rate of erosionincreases hence the curvilineardepressions are created making theupper half of the warming cyclingcenter of alphabet C is marked bywarming maxima. Then there is againgradual transformation from warmingto cooling and as the water in thesystem decreases there is lesserosion therefore we get ageomorphological feature whichresembles the lower half of alphabetC finally ending into the ICE age.

So paleoclimatic signaturesdiscovered in Ladakh Himalaya whichresembles alphabet C , for the firsttime geologically and scientificallyexplains cooling, warming and againcooling phase in nature to be anatural climate cyclic process.

”Figure 3 C cycles –Taphonomicstudies reveal 10 cycles preserved

in the granites”

Granites played important role inthe preservation of these climatic

signatures because they are veryhard and compact as compared toother rocks found in the Himalayaswhich are fragile and susceptible tofaster rate of weathering anderosion making preservation of thesamples a tedious task. Taphonomicalanalysis of these C curves inmassive Granites show great role oflithology and geomorphology inpreservation and understanding theuniform cyclicity of these climatesignatures which have beenbeautifully preserved in the LadakhBatholith in NW Himalaya. Due toroad cutting and weathering andother natural /manmade reasons thesesignatures are now being destroyedand there is need to preserve thesesignatures by declaring the site tobe a GEO HERITAGE SITE of utmostimportance. This single evidenceholds the key to explain the naturalcyclicity of climate changes.

“3.1 No of Arya’s C cycles”Author observed 10 such cycles inthe site on the banks of Indusbeautifully preserved in the massivegranites of Ladakh which evolvedafter the culmination of suturingbetween India and China Platesaround 7-8 million years ago.. 8complete and 2 half C cycles wereobserved in the section along thebanks of Indus. The uniformity inthe thickness of these cycles isamazing to watch in the preservedsection.

”Figure 4 Paleoclimatic signaturesrepresent alphabet C- hence C cycles(Half cycle preserved)”

“3.2 Geomathematical modeling”

Geomathematical modeling of thesepaleoclimatic signatures show thatafter every 4 cycles there is ahalf cycle. Just as we have a leapyear after every four years.According to this model eachcomplete C cycle is of 1338.6 yearsand half C cycle is 669.3 yearswhich comprises of cooling towarming to coolingphase.The model is based on simplecalculations Following thepresent steps we can simplycalculate 1 Aryas C cycle of climatechange Last IceAge 11715 years from today (based onInternational standard reference)which defines precisely when ice ageends and present begins. Studies arebased on Ice cores from NordGRIPdrilling in Greenland by researchersfrom Niels Bohr Institute atCopenhagen University, DenmarkSource (www.geus.dkwww.geus.dk)

No of C cycles discovered in thepresent section in Ladakh8 complete, 1 half and 1 half ofhalf C cycle So inall there are 8.75 C cycles sincethe last ICE age around 11715 yearsfrom today Therefore 1 Cycle =11715 years/8.75 cycle = 1338.6years /cycle

Hence one complete climate cycle ofcooling, warming and again coolingis curvilinearly completed in 1338.6years.Half cycle is completed in 669.3years

If 11715 years from today isconsidered to be O which is benchmark for the end of ICE age andinitiation of warming phase thenuniformity in 8 complete C cyclesand 2 half C cycles completelyexplains the cyclicty of climatechange in nature as we have day andnight cycle in 24 hours and 365 daysin 1 year.

“3.3 Limitations”1. Mathematical model proposed to

explain the climate changecycle are based onpaleoclimatic signaturesdiscovered by the author whichare taphonomically very wellpreserved in the Batholiths ofLadakh on the banks of Indusglacier , now river. If afterfurther research there are anychanges in the number ofcycles the years in the C

cycles will increase ordecrease proportionately.

2. Establishment of these cyclesis based on the assumptionthat last ICE age was 11715years from today. If this datechanges then the years in thecycle will proportionatelyincrease or decrease.

“3.4 Interpreting Aryas C cycles”Based on discovery of paleoclimaticsignatures of cooling, warming andcooling beautifully carved on thegranites of Ladakh batholiths whichresemble alphabet C author tires toexplain the cyclicity of climatechange. Mathematical model showsthat 1 complete climate cycle whichstarts from cooling to warming andthen again cooling follows acurvilinear shape resemblingalphabet C. Complete C cycle of1338.6 years shows cooling(Ice age)gradually curvilinearly transforminginto warming reaching warmingmaxima (669.3 years) and again thencurvilinearly gradually transformsinto cooling again culminating intoIce age. So in climate change Ccycle it takes 334.6 years totransform into warming phase fromIce age and another 334.6 years toreach warming maxima period markedby unprecedented increase intemperature resulting in unusualglacial melt causing sea level riseleading to increased precipitationcausing floods and cyclones.Warming maxima curvilinearly

transforms into cooling phase. Thewarming phase in all lasts for 669.3years. The 334.6-669.3 years ofwarming phase represents gradualcurvilinear transformation fromcooling to warming and 669.3-1003.9years represent warming to coolingphase. 1003.9 years to 1338.6 yearsmarks the gradual transformationfrom cooling and culminating intoIce age.

“Figure 5 Paleo climatic signatures resemble Alphabet C”

The time frame for each cycle is sobig that it is impossible to havethe entire concept of warming andcooling cycle in one’s life timehence there is so much uncertaintyin all the reports on climate changepresented till date. Man with hislimited vision only tries to see the

part of cycle which he is living andif he does not understand theclimate cycle in totality then themyths and fantasies are born andtheories of man and his activitiesimpacting the climate changegradually crop up leading to thepresent mess which the climatechange has been put into. Recentincrease changes in the temperaturebut within limits depending on thecycle weather half or full we are inonce that phase is over we will beentering cooling times. Thesetimings are as perfect as day andnight cycle.

”Figure 6 Half C cycle – 669,8years with warming max at 334.6

years”

As sun heat is not uniformthroughout and is maximum in noonsimilarly warming and cooling arenot uniform and temperatures aremaximum during warming times.

“4. Circumstantial Evidences”

Arya’s C cycle and circumstantialevidences are gathered to test thegeo mathematical model proposed byArya in this paper. Initialcorrelations have beyond doubt

established the correctness of the Ccycles and very well match with theevidences collected from Web andfield. A chart prepared belowexplains the correlation. Afterevery 4 cycles we have half cycle,so if Leh floods are considered tothe bench mark of Little Warmingmaxima of half cycle so by adding334 years we will be getting a datewhich corresponds to global coolingmaxima hence we enter Little Iceage, similarly if we subtract 334years from 2010 we can 1676 whichcorresponds to Frozen Tethys duringLittle Ice age. Similarly if wesubtract 668 from 1676 then we get1006 which corresponds to Lama yuruglacial outburst. Similarly bycalculating different dates we canget important events in the pastwhich corresponds to the naturalwarming and cooling cycles. Not onlythis can have we also predicted thefuture climate cycles of warming andcooling. According to the presentcase we are in LITTLE WARMING timesand will be entering cooling orLITTLE ICE AGE in 2344.

“Table 1 Chart showing Aryas Ccycle and circumstantial evidences”

“4.1 Frozen Thames (1677)”

Presently we are in lower half of Ccycle which began in 1677-8 markedby freezing of Thames river andadding 334 years which correspondsto half of half cycle we get 2011.Therefore 2010-11 seems to be thetime coinciding with the globalwarming maxima and now we aregradually transforming curvilinearfrom warming into cooling andculminating into cooling max Ice agein 2344 years.

“Figure 7 Frozen Thames – 1677( corresponds to ICE AGE around336.6 ago) Source Wikipedia”

The unprecedented changes intemperatures thereof specially inthe last 2 or 3 decades can be verywell explained because of thecloseness to the warming maximausing Arya C cycles andcalculations based on Arya’sGeomathematical model on climatechange which shows global warmingmaxima 2010 during present times.Hence warming process will continuein near future for about 167 yearswhen it will curvilinearly move intocooling times finally culminatinginto Ice age in 2344.

“4.2 Flash flooding”

Melting of glaciers during Warmingmaxima cause extensive flashflooding activity which was the mainreason for the destruction andextinction of Indus valleycivilsation. Flooding in Himalayanmountain ranges is related with theReservoir wall rupture mechanismproposed by the author afteranalyzing the flash floodingactivity of Leh in mid night of 6Aug 2010 in which more than 200 menlost their lives besides bringingunprecedented changes in thegeomorphology of the affectedregion. Around 3-8m of crust in theform of paleo flooding deposit wascreated within fraction of second inChoglamsar and Tyagshi in LadakhHimalaya.

Leh floods(2010) – (LITTLE WARMINGMAXIMA) in the midnight of 6 Aug2010 which resulted in creation of 3m to 8m of crust is an example ofthe events which coincide withwarming maxima. The event resultedin transportation of materialsdeposited during cooling times inthe upland regions, eroding,transporting and re-depositing thesame in the low lying region. Thisprocess resulted in loss of about190 lives and recently constructedproperty which fell in the path ofthe paleo flooding channel. Authorwas also struck in the event and wasmiraculously saved on that awfulnight. He termed the event as megageological event of the centurycoinciding with the global warmingmaxima and devised Reservoir WallRupture mechanism to explain theselected flooding mechanism in theregion, inspite of the fact theyreceived same rainfall.

“Figure 8 Leh floods 2010coincides with warming Maxima ofAryas C cycle”

Similar flooding events werereported from China, Pakistan,

Europe, Canada, USA, South AmericaAfrica making it an almost globalevent coinciding with the warmingmaxima times. Since according tothe model proposed by the author weare in warming maxima of half cycletherefore the impact was restrictedhowever if the cycle would have beencomplete then the impact would havebeen enormous. Similar eventscoinciding with the global warmingin the past led to major extinctionsof civilizations. Indus valley,Mesopotamian etc were no exception

“4.3 Paleoglaciated flooding

Lamayuru” (1006) WARMING MAXIMA nowa Buddhist religious place monasterywas a glaciated lake in the past. Aninteresting event happened, as perreligious writings it is believedthat The Indian scholarMahasiddhacarya Naropa (956-1041CE), allegedly caused a lake whichfilled the valley to dry up andfounded Lamayuru Monastery.Religiously there was Lama Yuru whoprayed on the banks of Lake inLamayuru and the Lake busted payingway for the construction of themonastery.

“Figure 9 Lamayuru –“Moon Landon earth” is paleo lake deposit”

Geological investigation by theauthor it was found that theremnants of paleo glaciated lake nowknown as the moon land on earth arestill present and furtherinvestigations revealed the finaloutburst of the reservoir wallleading to glacial outburst andextinction of the paleo glaciatedlake which was created as a resultof blocking of the glacier by themountain and creation of a wall fromthe accumulated sediments. Oncehydro static equilibrium wasdisturbed the wall ruptured leadingto glacial outburst.

“Figure 10 Paleo glaciated LakeOutburt –Lamayuru, Medieval warming1006”

This date coincides with globalwarming maxima in 1006 and theremnant lake would have inspired theMonk to build the monastery on itsbank in 1055. The oldest survivingbuilding at Lamayuru is a templecalled Seng-ge-sgang, at thesouthern end of the Lamayuru rock,which is attributed to the famousbuilder-monk Rinchen Zangpo (958-

1055 CE) Source Wikipedia.

”Figure 11 Lamayuru Monastry 1210constructed on geologically stablerock on banks of paleoglacietedlake”

There is no lake or water body inthe vicinity of the monastery. Todaythey get water from spring throughthe pipes about 5-6 kms away bygravity but in the past remnants ofpaleo glaciated lake and after itbusted then they must be fetchingwater from the stream below. It isinteresting that the geologicalwisdom of the monks was so strongthat till date the geotechnicalfoundations of the monastery arecase studies of how we can enjoyglobal warming without beingadversely effected by the naturalprocess.

“4.4 Glaciers recede /extinct”

Due to unprecedentedincrease in global temperaturesassociated with global the warmingmaxima times the impact is maximumon the glaciers. Similar warmingmaxima in the past had led toextinction of major glaciers inHimalaya. All this happened muchbefore industrialization around 1006

where the warming maxima coincidingwith rapid melting of glacierscausing major flooding events,receding and extinction of glaciers.

. “Figure 12 Remnant glacieron way to Chushul”

4.4.1 Extinct glaciers

Majority of the glaciers today inHimalaya are extinct or on the vergeof extinction. Indus glacier which extended from Mansarovar in Tibet toArabian sea in the geological past say around 11715 years ago is now almost on the verge of extinction. Below is photograph of the Himalayanglacier in Ladakh which became extinct in 1006 corresponding to Medieval Warming and Aryas Warming Maxima.

.“Figure 13 Extinct glacier 1006, Lamayuru”

4.4.2 Receding glaciers

Khardungla glacier which extendedfrom Khardung La top to Spituk hasreceded around 20.88 kms since thelast Ice Age. Based on borewellsdrilled at North and South Polu bythe author for Indian Army ataltitudes of more then 14000 feet.Today Khardung La glacier isrestricted to the peaks of KhardungLa and on the verge of extinctionposing great threat to the watersupply of the town for drinking aswell as meeting their agriculturalwater requirements.

“Figure 14 Khardung La Glacier-Water life line for Leh”

Dominance of snow is however more onthe northern slopes in comparison tothe southern slopes.(Dr Arya WorldWater Week Stockholm 2009)

Siachen glacier has also moved back at a faster rate in the last decade and can be explained simply because of the warming maxima coinciding with half cycle. Siachen glacier hasreceded by 78.15kms since the last ICE age the study is based on the borewells drilled at Siachen base 1,2 &3 (2002) and also at Y point near Khalsar for Army and civil population (2003) by the author.

“Figure 15 Siachen – The Receding glacier (78.15kms since ICE age)”

“Figure 16 Siachen snout”

“4.5 Lakes”

Shrinking Lakes in Himalaya due to overall warming over the last 11715 years has resulted in unprecedented decrease in the glaciers in Himalayas which have receded considerably and are today extinct or almost on the verge of extinction.

“Figure 17 Tsomoriri -Shrinking Lake ~ 1m in 1000years”

Decrease in the snow cover meansless water in the system as a resultof which the Himalayan Lakes areshrinking at a very fast pace. Belowis the photograph of Tsomoriri Lakedrilling experiments andgeomorphological studies have shownthat the lake has receded around 8-10 m since 11715 years from presentwhich means almost 1m in 1000 yearssince last Ice Age.

“ Figure 18 Tsomoriri Lake 8m of shrinkage since 11715 year from today”.

These lake are Fresh waterreservoirs in the Himalaya and playimportant role in recharging thegroundwater channels feeding paleochannels in the Indo-gangetic plainsof Northern Himalaya. Decrease inthe levels of water in the lake alsohas implications on the biodiversity of the Lake and itscatchment.

“4.5 Rivers are turning into Lakes”

Pangong lake of3 Idiots fame was a big riveroriginating from Tibet in the

geological past and joined Shyokbut today the river has beensqueezed into a Lake mainly becauseof less discharge into the riversystem as there are hardly anyglaciers left in theHimalayas.

”Figure 20 Drilling at LukungPang lake”

Glaciers in the past included theIndus had vanished. Resulting inless discharge into the river as aresult of which the rivers turnedinto lake and Pangong is a typicalexample. Drilling of borewells forIndian army in the Pangong resultedin the discovery of paleo channels.Geological / geomorphology of theLukung and Thakung helped furtherin establishing the features mainlypaleo glacial flooding which blockedthe path of Pangong river and led tothe formation of Lake. The floodingwhich blocked the flow of the rivercould be associated with the lastglobal warming maxima

Tsomoriri Lake of today was amassive river of the past whichjoins Satluj river of today. Massiveflooding of the past againassociated with the last warmingMaxima was responsible for blockingof the river and turning into a Lake

in recent past. Drilling of borewellat Tsomoriri for Indian army showsglacio fluvial sediments of upto78meters on the banks of Tsomoriri.The thickness of the lake sedimentsshows that multiple floodingresulted in the present daygeomorphology of the region.

“Figure 21 Drilling of borewell atTso Moriri”

Prior to the flooding which blockedthe flow of Tsomoriri rivercontributed much of the water intoSatluj basin. Today the lake formedas a result of paleoglacial floodingin the geological past coincidedwith the last global warming maximumwhich acts as a Store house of freshwater to the Satluj system.

“4.6 Sea Level rise/ Cyclones ”

Recurrence of cyclones in theeastern American coast and westernEuropean coast can be simplyexplained by the increase in sealevel due to unprecedented increasein temperatures causing the glaciersin Arctic and Antarctic to melt at amuch faster phase and in the processincreasing sea level and hence

causing more and more cyclones alongthe coasts and ever increasingthreat of submergence of coastalareas. But since we are in halfcycle so the impact of sea levelrise would be restricted and hencethe potential threat for submergenceof the coastal areas is also limitedin comparison to the warming eventsrelated with the warming maxima inthe complete C cycle. Detail work isbeyond scope of present work whichis based on research in Himalaya.

“4.7 Submergence ”

Dwarka - One of the importanthistorical and archeological sitein India which owes it submergenceto the impact of global warming isDwarka built by King Krishna on thebanks of confluence of Gomti andArabian sea. Glacial melting inthe global warming maxima timesleads to melting of glacial leadingto increase in levels of sea.Leading to submergence of coastallands which takes couple of yearsmore after the global warmingmaxima which coincides withflooding and cyclone impacts inmountain valley and coastal regionrespectively. This is evident incase of the holy city of Dwarkabuilt by Krishna. Submergencecoincides with global sea levelrise and and the dates of thesubmergence 1443 coincides with theglobal warming times of Aryas Ccycle. “5. Impact on water resources inHimalaya”

Decrease in surface/groundwaterresources End of the glaciers meansless of water from the snow melt.Indus river today is squeezed upmost of the year except for floodingin the summers. The river ispresently confined to few 100m incomparison to the vast paleochannels still found. Samplescollected at the time of drillingfor providing drinking water to thetroops stationed in the highaltitude established the discoveryof Indus glacier and also cyclictyof warming and cooling.Paleochannnels during warming timesare best suited for tapping ofgroundwater resources. Extinctionof snow cover from the peaks can bedirectly related with the decreasein flow of the water in the earthsystem and finally end of thegroundwater in the town or villageswho are today dependent on thegroundwater resources. Groundwaterdiscovery and its development whichis today the main source of waterand responsible for unprecedentedincrease in the number of hotelsthereby contributing to the socialand sound economic development inthe last couple of years andcoincides very well with the overallsystematic development of thegroundwater resources.Today threat from the impact ofwarming in Himalaya is comparativelynegligible (simply because Glaciersin Himalaya are extinct or on theverge of extinction) as compared tothe impact on eastern America and

western Europe simply because snowcover is negligible in Himalaya incomparison to the regions near tothe Antarctic and Arctic orGreenland . Or one can alsointerpret that major civilizationswere uprooted and destroyed notbecause they were not well plannedbut simply because they were notlocated on geologically stablesites.

“6 Conclusions”

Unprecedented increase in globaltemperatures can be very wellexplained using curvilinear natureof the C cycles resembling thealphabet C. Presently we are in thewarming phase and near to the globalwarming MAXIA which translates intomaximum increase in the temperaturesbut this also means that graduallywe will be curvilinearly graduallymoving into cooling times leading tonatural decrease in globaltemperatures culminating into ICEage in 2344 years.

“Figure 19 Man too small toimpact climate change”

UNIPCC reports suggest man and hisactivities responsible for warmingtimes which is contrary to thepresent study which suggest thateven if the green house gasesincrease at this or faster pace thecooling times is inevitable and wewill have Little ICE age by 2344.Moreover majority of the glaciers inHimalaya are extinct or receding andon the verge of extinction muchbefore the Industrialization or theimpact of GHGs started. Clearly,showing no relation between manmadeactivities (pollution) and climatechange which is natural phenomenon.Pollution can be 100% man made ornatural (volcanoes) but climatechange is 100% natural cyclicprocess.

“Figure 203 Warming –A naturalcyclic process”

“Climate change comprises of globalwarming & cooling is Natural cyclicprocess, like day and night, whereinwarming phase acts as a transportingagency in nature (floods andcyclones) Responsible fortransporting all the materialsdeposited during global cooling

times“. Dr Ritesh Arya......GlobalConference on Global Warming 2009Turkey Solutions to combat Climatechange and live happily with globalwarming phenomenon can thus besummarized by following quote of DrRitesh Arya talks at TEDX “Climatechange is a geological phenomenontherefore Solutions to combatClimate change need to begeological, Build sustainablehabitats in geologically favorableenvironments away from coast orriver channels“.

“Figure 24 Enjoy warming –Its Natural”

I conclude by saying “ Globalwarming and cooling are part ofnatural cyclic process like Day andnight . Global warming is the besttimes to be on this planet earthwhat will one do in global coolingtimes, …..imagine living inAntarctica or Arctic, so Enjoywarming –Its Natural “ Squeezing ofglaciers is a matter of concern butthere are advantages also moreglaciers means more melting and morewater causing more flooding and this

was the reason for the flooding ofthe Indus civilization. Lessglaciers means less melting and lesswater in the system hence lessflooding and less destruction of thehabitation. But on the other handLESS water also means less water inthe rivers which are alreadysqueezed up and less water for theHYDRO POWER project. Economicallythis means that we will have lesspower from the power projects andthe production cost would be veryhigh. Majority of them would becomedysfunctional because of floodingleading to silting and also shortageof water. This will adversely affectthe population who are relying onthis resource for water (drinking,irrigation) and power . By 2150according to Aryas C cycle we willbe approaching cooling times whichwill culminate into Little Ice ageby 2334 that will be the testingtime for the water resources as thesource will be squeezed and it willbe difficult to feed the hugepopulation. This will lead to massmigrations conflicts and formationof new world order concentratingaround the fresh water resourcesaround the world. Only thosesocieties and civilizations willflourish who will be able to controland judiciously use their waterresources in near Future.

I conclude my paper with thefollowing remark “God give me thecourage to change the things I can (pollutionand technology), accept the things I cannot

change (climate change) ,serenity and wisdomto know the difference” Dr Ritesh Arya.

Acknowledgement

Study on Climate change and its impact of the water resources in Himalayas was possible because of the various opportunities provided while exploring and drilling water resources for people living in various parts of Himachal first as ahydrogeologist in Himachal government and secondly as an entrepreneur while exploring and developing groundwater in the high altitude cold mountain desert of Ladakh for civil and army personnel living the extreme climatic conditions. Author is thankful to Military Engineering Service and Engineers Corps for providing all the necessary help in granting contracts to provide drinking water to the troops stationed in the remote border areas because of whichauthor was able to reach the inaccessible areas which were otherwise banned for civilians. Geological and hydrogeological data collected from the borewell drilled in Siachen, Kargil, Drass, Partapur,Tangstae, Chushul ,Loma, Karzok, Leh Karu,Sarchu, Nyoma and Demchuk sector since 1999 which has helped in gathering geological and geomorphological information necessary for reconstructing the paleoenvironment and understanding the paleo channel conditions . Without these observations and active logistic support from the

Army the present research would not have been possible.

Photographs by Dr Ritesh Arya during various field expeditions inHimalaya since 1999.

References

Journal Articles D.A. Agboola, E.O. Etejere and M.O.Fawole, “Paper tile”, Journal name, Volume No. Issue No., PP.,Year.

Books R. C. Gonzalez and R. E. Woods, Digital Image Processing, vol. 2nd edition, Prentice Hall, 2002.

Conference Proceedings D.A. Agboola, E.O. Etejere and M.O.Fawole, “Paper tile”, Conference name-year, PP., Year.

Websites

R.Arya “Aryas C cycle Climate changeNatural” – International Conference on Climate change in Himalaya 2013 http://climate.niscair.res.in/iccch-abstracts.pdf

R.Arya, Leh floods 2010 ritesh Arya http://ladakhstudies.org/conferences/leh2011.html

R. Arya “Climate change and New world order” in KLIMA 2011/Climate 2011 www.klima2011.net

R. Arya, “Global warming is natural Enjoy it”. Global conference on global warming Istambal 2009

R. Arya “Global warming: A new perspective”  Global conference on global warming Istambal 2008

R.Arya “ Impact of climate change ongroundwater resources of Himalayas” Groundwater Vulnerability -EmergingIssues and New Approaches IMVUL Conference hosted by UPMC- Sisyphe, Paris, France 9 - 12 July, 2012 Les Cordeliers, Rue de l'École de Médecine, Paris, France http://www.see.leeds.ac.uk/imvul/documents/Absract%20book.pdf

R.Arya “Aryas C cycle Climate change Natural” – International Conference on Climate change in Himalaya 2013 http://climate.niscair.res.in/iccch-abstracts.pdf

Who’s afraid of global warming? http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2009/02/28/whos-afraid-of-global-warming/ Global warming is a cyclic process http://www.challengingclimate.org/story/4146/4220/Global-warming-is-a-cyclic-process

The Incredible waterman http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/The+incredible+waterman/1/1482.html

Global warming is a cyclic process:Guinness record Holder Dr Ritesh Arya

http://green.in.msn.com/greennews/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4866367

Global warming is 100% natural:: DrRitesh Arya http://cambbioclimaticglobal.com/climate-change-news/global-warming-is100%natural-dr-ritesh-arya

"Man be not proud Global warming isnot your creation" Dr Ritesh Arya: Times of India http://www.eai.in/club/users/aryaritesh/blogs/714

Himachali Scientist Claims to SolveMystery of Climate Change http://www.divyahimachal.com/himachal-news-2/himachali-scientist-claims-to-solve-mystery-of-climate-change/

ARYAS C CYCLE -Climate change natural :- Dr Ritesh Arya http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ogCA7AjVoo 

'Global warming is natural, enjoy it' http://www.schmanck.de/Arya.html

Global warming is 100% natural:: Dr RITESH ARYA http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2009/02/28/whos-afraid-of-global-warming/

Global warming   is a cyclic process: Guinness record holder   ... http://chimalaya.org/2011/02/03/india-global-warming-is-a-cyclic-process-guinness-record-holder/

Global warming is not man made saysDr Ritesh Arya http://www.tribuneindia.com/20008

Hydrologist makes into Guinness world records http://ks360352.kimsufi.com/newsletters/NL81.pdf

Panic over global warming misplacedhttp://www.tribuneindia.com/2008/20080219/himachal.htm#4

Taking water to the mountains http://www.tribuneindia.com/2001/20010630/windows/main2.htm

Indian geologist makes it to Guinness Book of World Records http://www.tribuneindia.com/2004/20040512/cth1.htm#9

‘Harness groundwater to tide over water crisis’ http://www.tribuneindia.com/2003/20030616/himachal.htm#3

'Man, be not proud,   global warming   is not your creation' http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Repository/ml.asp?Ref=VE9JQ0cvMjAwNy8wNC8wMyNBcjAyMjAy&

Groundwater a solution to water scarcity in hills: http://www.tribuneindia.com/2009/20090204/himplus1.htm#3

Wikipedia

http://serveveda.org/?p=171 for age of Dwarka submergence