Forestry Initiatives in the Wake of Climate Change Impacts: A Case Study

from Tripura

Ajoy Debbarma*

* Author correspondence:

Tropical Forest Research Institute,

P.O.- RFRC, Mandla Road, Jabalpur - 482021 (M.P), INDIA

Email: ajoybarma@icfre.org (or) jkajoydeb87@gmail.com

Abstract

Tripura, a Himalayan foothill state in the western edges of North-East India is highly prone to

climate change impacts. The impacts are being felt with occurrence of irregular rainfall events

and temperature fluctuations. This has led to shift in cropping seasons in the agriculture sector

resulting in overexploitation of forest resources. Over the last few decades, there has been

increased pressure on forest resources in the state and much higher due to the increasing demand

from Bangladesh posing a threat to the forest ecosystems. All these could be linked to the

epidemic effect of climate instability that is being felt in the neighbouring country of Bangladesh

apart from the domestic problems. As measures to cope with these challenges, the local

communities traditionally dependent on forest are taking up alternative means of forest based

livelihood activities in the state. Though these measures may address sustainability of livelihood

of the communities, anomalies in the climate could affect forest ecosystems especially with

respect to monoculture practices being carried out.

This paper discusses the past and present initiatives and practices in the forestry sector in Tripura

to cope with the problems associated with climate change on the forests and to improve the

economic conditions of the communities dependent on the forests. It studies the collective effort

of the State Forest Department and the local communities to address the problems of forest

degradation and to sustain the livelihoods of the people.

Keywords: Climate Change, Climate Change Impacts, Communities, Livelihood, Forest

Degradation, Tripura.

Introduction

Impacts of recent changes in climate on natural and human systems have occurred and are

escalating on all continents and across the oceans. Regional impacts of climate change have now

been observed at more locations than before (IPCC WGII AR5, 2014). According to the National

Climate Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the annual mean temperature for

the country as a whole during 2012 was +0.49°C above the average, thus the year was eight

warmest year on record since 1901. It was also observed that rainfall activity over the country

was slightly below normal (89% of Long Period Average) in 2012. Of the four homogenous

regions, Central India received 93% of its annual rainfall, Northwest and East & North-East

India received 86% of its respective normal rainfall, while the south peninsular India received

90% of its normal rainfall in 2012. This clearly proves that climate variables are attaining higher

changes over temporal and spatial scales all over India.

For many natural systems there is new or stronger evidence for substantial and wide-ranging

impacts of climate change. These systems include the cryosphere, water resources, coastal

systems and ecosystems on land and in the ocean (IPCC WGII AR5, 2014). There is growing

evidence that climate change is impacting on forests and forest ecosystems. All these have far

reaching implications to the livelihoods and to the economic and social development of the

country. To understand these implications on a regional scale, impacts of climate change on

forest that are induced by changes in the agriculture sector and growing demand from

Bangladesh & the efforts of the government by involving the local people in the North-Eastern

Indian state of Tripura to adapt to the changes have been highlighted in this study.

Climate Scenario in North East India

Out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions of the country, the NER of India comprises of 4

subdivisions namely; [2] Arunachal Pradesh, [3] Assam & Meghalaya, [4] Nagaland, Manipur,

Mizoram & Tripura, [5] Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim. The climate of the region is

predominantly humid subtropical with hot, humid summers, severe monsoons, and mild winters.

The region experiences wide variation in weather and climate. With an annual average rainfall of

2068 mm, it is one of the highest rainfall-receiving regions on the planet, which makes it an

important site from a meteorological perspective (Jain et al. 2012). Cherrapunji (or

Mawsynram), which is the wettest place on the Earth with annual rainfall of around 12,000 mm,

falls in this region. The mean annual rainfall in the NER varies from 1577 to 6002 mm

(Parthasarathy et al., 1995). The mean temperature varies from 5 to 30 °C and the mean relative

humidity remains between 70% and 85% for most part of the year (Jhajharia et al., 2009).

Fig.1: Meteorological Sub-divisions of North-East Region of India

Temperature and Rainfall Trends of NE India

Analysis of the annual average maximum and minimum temperature datasets of IMD from 1901

to 2007 for NER of India reveals that the months May and June were the warmest and January

the coldest. The maximum temperature in 1901 was 32.9°C and in 2007 it was 33.6°C. This

shows a rise of 0.7°C. For January 1901 the minimum temperature was 9.1°C and in 2007 it was

observed as 9.0°C indicating a fall in minimum temperature by 0.1°C.

Average maximum temperature from 2011 to 2014 for the month of May for all four

meteorological subdivisions of NE India were found to be ranging from 27.5°C in 2011 to

33.5°C in 2014.

Fig.2: Maximum average temperature trend

This shows a rise in average maximum temperature for the month of May by 6°C during this

period. The average minimum temperature from 2012 to 2014 for the month of January were

observed to be 8.5°C in 2012, 6°C in 2013 and 8.5°C in 2014.

Fig.3: Minimum average temperature trend

This recent data suggests that temperature fluctuations are being experienced in the region. The

data for the months of January and May were analysed because these two months experiences

the coldest and the warmest months in a calendar year.

Analysis of recent rainfall datasets issued by IMD, Hydromet Division, New Delhi for the

Monsoon season comprising the months of June, July, August & September (JJAS) from 2009 to

2013 reveal that rainfall activity in the NER of India is declining against its normal of 1729.12

mm to 1765.97 mm.

27.5 32 28.5

33.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011May

2012May

2013May

2014May

Max

. Avg

. Te

mp

. OC

8.5

6

8.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan

Min

. Avg

. Te

mp

. OC

Fig.4: Monsoon rainfall trend

For the year 2013, the annual average rainfall in NER of India was 1037.9 mm against its long

period average (LPA) of 1437.8 mm which is only 72% of the LPA. This means that the annual

average rainfall for the region is also declining due to decline in the monsoon season.

Temperature and Rainfall Trends of Tripura

Tripura experiences moist to humid climate. The temperature ranges from 21°C to 38°C in

summer and 4°C and 33°C in the winter. The annual rainfall varies between 2,250 mm to 2,500

mm. Analysis of the annual average maximum and minimum temperature data acquired from

IMD Agartala Station from 1995 to 2009 reveals rise in maximum temperature by 0.57°C and

fall in minimum temperature by 7.1°C.

Fig.5: Maximum annual average temperature trend

1338.05

1630.3

1400.17

1699.6

1261.77

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mo

nso

on

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

33.99

33.22

33.57

34.46

33.8 33.85

34.56

1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

An

nu

al A

vg. M

ax. T

emp

. °C

Fig.6: Minimum annual average temperature trend

Rainfall in the state of Tripura is also deviating from its Long Period Average (LPA). During

Monsoon 2012, state as a whole received 1211 mm rain compared to the long period average

(LPA) of 1416mm i.e., 85 percent of its LPA (Datta & Daschaudhuri, 2012). The following trend

in annual average rainfall for the whole state of Tripura was observed from 2008 to 2012

indicating considerable decline in annual average rainfall since 2010.

Fig.7: Annual average rainfall trend

All these observations indicate that NER of India is experiencing climate instability. The region

though known as one of the highest rainfall receiving regions on the planet is now showing signs

of change.

15.4

17.1

17.33

18.05

6.2

7.2 8.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

An

nu

al A

vg. M

in. T

emp

. °C

1860.87

2099.34

2327.04

1933.04

2004.1

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

An

nu

al A

vg. R

ain

fall

(mm

)

Forest and Forest Dependent Communities of Tripura

Tripura is situated in the North-Eastern Region of India and shares international boundary with

Bangladesh on three sides. The state lies between latitude 22°57’ N and 24°33’ N and longitude

91°10’ E and 92°20’E in the North Eastern Region (NER) physiographic zone. The State falls in

the Surma river basin which is well known for occurrence of oil and gas. Land use system is

mostly forest. The forest type is predominantly Tropical Moist Deciduous Forest (Champion &

Seth, 1968). The recorded forest area of the state is 6,294 km2

which constitutes 60.02 % of its

geographical area (ISFR 2011, FSI). The type of soil is in the category of Zonal Soils, formed

under conditions of good soil drainage through the prolonged action of climate and vegetation.

Map Courtesy: Forest Survey of India

Major part of the forest areas of the state are inhabitat by different tribal communities. There are

about 19 tribal communities in Tripura whose livelihoods are directly dependent on the forests.

Apart from these communities, there are other traditional forest dwellers directly dependent on

forest for their livelihood. The forest and biodiversity resources are quite significant for these

local communities as they are dependent on these resources for their daily sustenance needs.

Much of the local population is reliant upon forest products for everyday needs, including

housing, food, fodder and medicinal use. The forest resources, therefore, constitute an integral

part of development and livelihood generation in the state.

The presence of international border with Bangladesh and it being one of the most vulnerable

countries of the world to climate change, Tripura is bound to face newer challenges. To cope

with these challenges, the State Forest Department, various state government undertakings,

NGOs and the local communities are involved in forestry schemes supported by various

international agencies.

Climate Change Impacts in Tripura

Studies on Climate change impacts of relevance to the state of Tripura are limited. But there are

good amount of work on impacts of climate change for the NE region as a whole. It is thus

logical to extrapolate the findings of those studies to the state of Tripura. The economically

important forest types, such as Tectona grandis, Shorea robusta, Bamboo, Upland Hardwoods

and Pine, are projected to undergo change (Ravindranath et al., 2011). This can be well

supported by the fact that Malocana baccifera (Wathui/Muli bamboo) has been flowering in

forest of Tripura indicating its senescence. Bamboo brakes and patches constitute a major part of

forest of Tripura and provide livelihood support for the rural mass. In recent years bamboo

patches have degraded and this could be due to declining rainfall and soaring temperatures

though a scientific basis for this still remains to be established. Apart from this, the traditional

practice of shifting cultivation for decades have degraded forest ecosystems and in this time of

climate instability, degradation of existing forest will be an unavoidable consequence. An added

stress that has seen recent development is clearing of pristine forest for rubber & tea cultivation

by forest dwelling communities. The net decrease in forest cover of the state in comparison to

previous assessment (ISFR 2009) works out to 96 km2 and the reasons for changes are mainly

due to clearings for rubber plantations and shifting cultivation practices (ISFR 2011, FSI).

Cultivation of rubber & tea introduces monoculture cropping system and may not be in sync with

the surrounding forest ecosystems. This could have impacts on the microclimate and may affect

the surrounding natural forests and loss to biodiversity. It also fragments the contiguous forest

into patches creating barriers for pollination. Disturbed and fragmented forests and monoculture

forests are likely to be more vulnerable to climate change (Rosenzweig, 1995; Jandl et al., 2007).

Agriculture sector is also facing challenges in the state due to delay in onset of monsoon and

decline in rainfall. Though production in the past years may have increased, it has not met the net

requirement of food grain for the state. Agriculture in Tripura is dependent on the monsoon and

most of the rivers and rivulets that drain the 27% of the land under agriculture in the state are

drying up making agricultural activity difficult and unproductive. This has put pressure on forest

resources in the state and illegal and unsustainable cross border timber trade have seen recent

rise resulting in overexploitation of forest resources. This clearly indicates shift in greater

dependence on forest resources induced by pressure in the agriculture sector. Thus it is evident

that livelihoods of the people are being affected and a change in agricultural practices and

preferences among the local communities from the conventional food crop cultivation to Rubber,

Tea and Bamboo is gaining momentum in the state.

Forestry initiatives in wake of climate change impacts in Tripura

Local responses to climate variability, shocks, and change have always been part of livelihoods

(Morton, 2007). At this moment of climate instability, livelihoods of the communities are at

stake. Thus, adaption and mitigation measures are the only means to cope with it. Such activities

taken up in Tripura have been discussed below:

Green Tripura Mission (GTM)

Under the National Action Plan for Climate Change of India, there is a separate National

Mission for Green India which recognizes the forestry sector as one of the most effective

carbon sinks to mitigate and adapt to the Climate Change and its indispensible role in the

conservation of ecological security and restoration biodiversity resources. The Green Tripura

Mission (GTM) has been prepared as per the guidelines of National Climate Change Action Plan-

Green Mission. It has identified a number of climate change adaptation pathways for the state.

Afforestation programs will be taken up in the state. Conservation, sustainable management of

forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks shall be encouraged. Forest carbon stocks shall

be conserved and enhanced by reforestation in the deficient and open forest areas.

Some of the key priorities that Green Tripura Mission will focus on are:-

(a) Enabling adaptation of forest dependent communities to climatic variability.

(b) Promotion of Urban Forestry.

(c) Agro Forestry and Social Forestry Promotion in Tripura to enhance Carbon Sinks.

(d) Rehabilitation of shifting cultivators and the restoration of shifting cultivated areas.

(e) Conservation and promotion of Scared Groves in Tripura.

(f) Improvement of Tree Canopy covers by enrichment plantations.

(g) Promoting rural households to adopt fuel wood efficiency and improved Chulhas

(stoves), Biogas etc.

(i) Strengthening of Forest Department (Infrastructure & Capacity Building).

Indo-German Development Cooperation Project (IGDC)

The Indo-German Development Cooperation (IGDC) Project entitled "Participatory Natural

Resource Management in Tripura" is a forest based bi-lateral project between the Government of

India and the Federal Republic of Germany. The broad concept of the project was originated

with GoT (Government of Tripura) in a programme concept document submitted to the German

Government in 2003. It primarily aims at enhancing the livelihoods of poor rural people (with

the focus on tribal shifting cultivators) and improvement in the environmental conditions in the

target areas as a secondary purpose.

The Project aims at addressing three related issues i.e. Socio-economic "Hardship" of the poor

rural people in the target areas by addressing through measures that identify and support

alternative livelihoods including access to cash income, wage employment and forest-based

enterprise in markets. The issue of "Environmental Degradation" is to be addressed through

measures to enhance forest and environmental productivity for a range of products. The third

issue i.e. "Sustainable Utilization of Resources" is likely to be addressed in the Project through

supporting and strengthening measures to utilize existing opportunities of the target groups to

benefit through more forest productivity, such as- improved sharing and access to increased

quantities of forest resources.

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

The Tripura JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) Project is a registered society under

the name of “Tripura Forest Environment Improvement and Poverty Alleviation Society”. This

project, focuses on restoring degraded forests and improving the livelihoods of the people,

especially the tribal population engaged in traditional shifting cultivation. Afforestation in

51,000 hectares of forest land, farm forestry, agro forestry and soil and moisture conservation are

the key components of the project. Community mobilization forms the essence of the project and

456 Joint Forest Management Committees (JFMCs) and Eco Development Committees (EDCs)

have been formed and strengthened under the project. These JFMC shall play a central role in

restoration of forests and socio economic development of their respective villages. The project

provides for comprehensive capacity building of the JFMC as well as development of basic

infrastructure for the JFMCs. Strong emphasis has also been laid on development of

infrastructure as well as capacity building of the forest department personnel.

Conclusion

Current initiatives that are being carried out are already addressing the issues of climate change

and forest degradation in the state. The implementation of Tripura SAPCC and particularly GTM

(Green Tripura Mission) will enhance the efforts of the state in dealing with future challenges in

the state’s forestry sector. For a more effective response to climate induced challenges, the

integration of following options could be of great help:-

Many of the activities identified as response to climate change have development

benefits and vice versa. These win‐win approaches are good starting places for

addressing adaptation and can be undertaken despite uncertainties about the impact of

climate change.

Effective adaptation must be based on the best available information on climate

change and associated risks and impacts. If available information is not well collected

and presented, improving climate‐related information should be part of the future

policy focus in order to ensure adequate and accurate information are available to

support the policy making process.

A key element of adaptation is adequate monitoring aiming at documenting changes in

forest species, processes and ecosystems, and enabling the evaluation of the

effectiveness of adaptation strategies.

Providing fairness and equity in actions and measures will garner support from the

stakeholders and improve effectiveness of the implemented activities.

It is important to underline that many management actions taken in the context of adaptation,

also play an important role in climate change mitigation. On the other hand, mitigation measures

(e.g. avoiding deforestation) can contribute to forest based adaptation to climate change, e.g. by

maintaining local people’s livelihoods that rely on the use of NTFPs. Thus, tapping the potential

for synergies between adaptation and mitigation to deal with climate change impacts could create

win-win solution.

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