Fires in the perspective of future changes: the contribute of CMCC to FUME Project

Fires in the perspective of future changes: the contribute of CMCC to FUME Project

Bacciu V.1,2*, Alcasena F.1, Arca B.3, Bosello F.1,4,5, Gualdi S.1,6, Noce S.1,Michetti M.1, Otrachshenko W.1, Parrado R. 1,4, Salis M.2,1, Santini M.1,

Scoccimarro E.1,7, Spano. D.2,1

1CMCC, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy, 2University of Sassari,

DIPNET – Italy, 3CNR, National Council of Research, IBIMET - Italy, 4Fondazione Eni

Enrico Mattei– Italy, 5University of Milan – Italy, 7INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica

e Vulcanologia - Italy

*Corresponding Author: [email protected]

Abstract

According to a number of authors, the primary factors determining and shaping fire

regime (climate, topography, fuel, and land use-land cover) were not stable during

the last decades, significantly determining modification in fire regime and fire

severity; however our understanding of how the fire driver changes affected fire

regime in the past is limited. In addition to that, these changes are projected to

continue, increasing fire danger and risk. FUME project (Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe,

the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world) aimed to learn from the

past to understand future fire impacts. In this paper, we present and summarize the

most important achievement reached by CMCC, a core partner of the project. The

main findings are that: (1) fire activity significantly changed, also thank to fire

management improvements; (2) future land use distribution, in not regulated, would

contribute to increase fire risk; (3) this increase would be counterbalanced by

projected reduction in wind speed, leading to a lower wildfire rate of spread and size;

(4) the projected average yearly damage induced by Mediterranean forest fires along

the 2020-2070 period ranges from $ 5286 to $ 7587 million.

Keywords: FUME project, fire regime, climate change, land use change, carbon losses

SISC, Second Annual Conference Climate change: scenarios, impacts and policy

Impacts & Implications ofClimate Change

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1. INTRODUCTION

Fire is by far the most frequent and widespread disturbance to vegetation in the world

[1, 2]. This is particularly true in Mediterranean ecosystems [3, 4, 5]. In Southern

Europe, every year about 45000 forest fires occur, burning approximately 0.5 million

hectares of forests and other rural lands [6]. Fire occurrence varies considerably from

one year to the next, which clearly indicates how much the burnt area depends on

seasonal meteorological conditions [7]. On the other hand, the other driving factors

(e.g., land use, vegetation) have not been stable during the last decades, mainly due

to modifications in the territory caused by socioeconomic changes [8]. Looking at the

future, changes in climate and socioeconomics are projected to continue, exposing to

greater fire risk assets, values, and ecosystems [9].

The FUME project (Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in

Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world, FP7, 2010-

2013), coordinated by the University of Castilla-La Mancha (Spain), highlighted how

the understanding of fire controlling factors, and their dynamics, is of utmost

importance for anticipating future fire risks. The project aims were to:

(i) investigate and disentangle the relationships between socioeconomic,

landscape and climate factors, and fires across various scales and

countries during the last decades;

(ii) translate scenarios of climate, land use and socio-economic changes to into

projections of modified fire potential and risk;

(iii) evaluate the capacity to cope with future forest fires and reduce the risk

through preventive or reactive measures [10] and appraised related

economic costs and policies at the European level.

This paper illustrates the most important achievement reached by CMCC (a core

partner of the project) in unraveling the influence of key drivers for fire activity and

regime, projecting future changes and proposing an economic assessment of future

fire damages. Also, the management implications are discussed, along with major

open challenges that still need to be addressed.

Impacts & implications of Climate Change


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Assessing past fire regimes and changes through time due to the different key

drivers required the collection and the harmonization of long-term databases to

permit analysis spanning over the last thirty years and to enable comparisons among

countries. After gathering information on fire, climate, land use, and socio-economic

data from the EU-Med to the local scale, CMCC concurred to understand, through

modeling and statistical analysis, how modifications occurred in the fire controlling

factors affected fire activity, considering both behavior and regime.

Outcomes resulting from investigating the past guided projections about future fire

risk and fire regime due to climate and other social and economic changes.

Specifically, CMCC developed global and regional climate simulations over the

FUME spatial domain (Fig. 1). In turn, climate projections were used to drive future

land use change (LUC) scenarios produced also taking into account the results of the

CMCC economic-energy model. LUC scenarios were then used by impact models

(from vegetation to fires) to produce future fire risk scenarios.

2.1. Forest fire regime recent trends, changes and weather relationships

Fire regime across the Mediterranean Basin (from EU-Med to National level down to

NUTS2 scale) was described according to major fire characteristics (fire seasonality,

frequency, and inter-annual variability) using fire statistics derived from different

sources. The existence of significant trends and shifts in fire occurrence was also

investigated. Throughout the analyzed time interval (1985-2005), summer (JJAS)

resulted the main burning period, although several countries presented a secondary

peak in early spring. More than the 80% of fires burned less than 10 hectares,

accounting for a small portion (about 11%) of the total burned area. Fire incidence

(burned area over the land area) was higher in Portugal, followed by Spain and Italy.

The whole study area exhibited a general increase in the number of fires. Portugal

(1989 and 1994) and Greece (2000) show an upward trend, while Italy (1994)

exhibits a downward trend [11] (Fig. 2). The burned area had an opposite trend, with

a generalized slight decrease throughout the period considered, significantly in Italy,

Greece, and Turkey. At NUTS2 level, a significant increase in the number of fires

was observed only in Attica and Peloponnese, while burned area followed a general

decrease in all the study areas.

2. ANALYSING THE PAST TO PROJECT THE FUTURE



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CMCC coordinated the analyses of the relationships between weather/climate

conditions and fire through the application of different algorithms and methodologies

at several scales, from the Euro-Mediterranean level, to national, NUT02, and local

scale. At Eu-Med level, precipitation was the variable that more influenced the

multiple linear regression models, while at National level, meteorological conditions,

both antecedent (such as droughts) and during the fire season (such as strong wind,

heat waves), seemed to have a strong influence on seasonal severity (i.e., area

burned) [12]. Several results suggested the dual role of precipitation in fuel build-up

and dryness [13]. Overall, in spite of the use of such a wide range of methodologies

and spatial scales, the importance of similar fire season climatic factors was

observed at all scales. In particular, seasonal droughts in months prior to the fire

season peak, occurrence of heat waves, and strong winds during the fire season had

a strong influence on fire occurrence and seasonal severity across scales [14]. A

specific case study was performed for the Italian domain to investigate, with

statistical techniques, the relevance of socio-economic and meteorological variables

in generating fire occurrence and magnitude during 2000-2008 [15]. Italy is divided

into north, center, and south, to capture local-specific characteristics in fire regimes.

Results highlight the importance of railway networks, livestock presence and fuel

management. Fire containment may derive from limiting illegal activities in the south.

2.2. Climate models and simulations

CMCC developed global and regional climate simulations covering the period 1970-

2100. These were performed using the CMCC-MED CGCM, whereas the regional

ones were produced using the COSMO-CLM RCM. CMCC-MED [16,17] is a coupled

atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. It focuses on the Mediterranean region

and includes a very high-resolution model for the Mediterranean Sea to better

represent the dynamical processes that characterize this region. The COSMO-CLM

[18] is the climate version of the regional COSMO model [19], which is the

operational non-hydrostatic mesoscale weather forecast model developed by the

German Weather Service, further updated by the CLM-Community in order to

develop also climatic applications. In the COSMO-CLM version the horizontal

resolution is 14 Km, thus orography is better described with respect to the global

CMCC-MED model, where there is an over-/underestimation of valley/mountain



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heights resulting in errors for orographic precipitation estimation. The non-hydrostatic

modeling allows providing a good description of the convective phenomena, which

can redistribute significant amounts of moisture, heat and mass on small temporal

and spatial scales. Furthermore, convection can cause severe precipitation events

(as thunderstorm or cluster of thunderstorms). Implementing these two climate

models CMCC i) provided global and regional climate simulations to be used as input

in fire regime and LULC future projections; ii) defined indexes to characterize

extreme events useful to determine fire development conditions [20].

2.3. Land use models and simulations

Interactions between land use/cover dynamics and biophysical (including climate) to

socioeconomic factors were investigated, reproduced and projected for the

Mediterranean basin, comprising Southern European (EU), Middle East (ME) and

North African (NA) countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea. The LUC@CMCC

model [21], forced by the economic-energy model ICES@CMCC [22] provided

spatially-explicit LUC scenarios as inputs to future-fire risk modelling activities in

FUME. The LUC@CMCC model code, suitable for regional applications, was

implemented at about 10 km resolution within two spatial sub-domains of the above

defined Mediterranean basin domain: EU-Med, comprising EU countries; and

EUMENA-Med, also including ME and NA countries. In the first case, the CORINE

land cover dataset was used as reference to calibrate/validate the LUC@CMCC

model between 1990, 2000 and 2006, respecting the CORINE class re-aggregation

as agreed within FUME. In the second case, the MODIS land cover product was

used considering years 2000 and 2006, requiring weaker assumptions for

associating MODIS land cover categories to FUME selected land use/cover classes.

In both cases, also the likely influence of restrictions in protected areas was tested.

In order to assess drivers governing land use allocation, a logistic regression (LR)

analysis verified by Receiving Operating Characteristic test was applied considering

between 10 and 15 explanatory factors, divided into dynamical (climatic and socio-

economic) and static (like accessibility and topographic/geographic location). After

the calibration/validation phase, where mainly temperature and slope demonstrated

to influence land use allocation, observed and model simulated land use in 2000

matched for 84.8% of the area, considered as a good model fit. The statistical



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relationships derived from the LR were thus used to drive the spatial allocation of

land use in the future simulations, considering changes in the dynamical explanatory

factors in terms of population density and especially climate variables, coming from

above regional CMCC and two additional ENSEMBLES project simulations as bias-

corrected and provided to FUME partners.

Future aggregated land use demands to drive LUC@CMCC model were developed

for forestry, pasture, and agriculture using the economic-energy model ICES@CMCC

based on future socio-economic trends, for EU-Med and EUMENA-Med regions. Such

demands, produced for 2035 and 2050 reference years, were interpolated every 10

years up to 2070 and 2100. Results indicate that higher LUCs apply to agriculture-tree,

agro-forestry and shrublands in EU-Med, and to forests in EUMENA-Med. This

implies that during the period ranging from 2000 to 2100, 18.5 and 106 Mha of land in

EU-Med and EUMENA-Med, respectively, should be converted into different uses.

Looking at the results of the EU-Med domain experiment (more robust thanks to the

higher spatial and classification detail of CORINE dataset taken as input, and to the

higher homogeneity of data across EU countries), decadal LUC simulations from

2000 to 2100 showed that, more than 10% of the territory (almost 20 Mha) could

undergo changes (Fig. 3). When assuming protected area as territories preserved

from changes, land modifications were reduced to 9% of the region, with about 2 Mha

saved from any LUC. This confirms how land protection and regulation can favor

more balanced demands and allocation of lands, avoiding overpressure and loss of

natural suitability for specific uses, functions or services. Fuel spatial distribution is a

key factor of these future changes: ensemble results show a future increase of land

surface with medium to high fire hazard (Fig. 4). Successively, a further ensemble of

simulations at local level (100 m resolution), based on combination of multiple climate

change and socioeconomic projections, were performed for selected case studies (2

in Spain, 1 in France, 1 in Italy, and 1 in Greece), adapting the LUC model for local

evaluations on fire hazard at finer spatial detail.



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In the context of recent changes occurred in the Mediterranean area, fire activity and

burned area are expected to be influenced by changes in fuel types and

characteristics, in addition to climatic conditions. Two fire spread simulators based on

the Rothermel’s model (FARSITE [23] and FlamMap [24]) were used in different

configurations with the aim to (i) calibrate wildfire models along the Mediterranean

basin considering a set of historical wildfires, and then to (ii) analyze the effects

through time of the main environmental factors (wind speed, wind direction, fuel

moisture, land use changes, ignition locations) on wildfire likelihood and intensity [25,

26, 27]. For the predictive objective, two time periods were used to provide input data

for simulations: the past conditions of land use and key factors between 1950 and

2000, and the future conditions, from the present to 2070. Spatial and temporal

variations in wildfire size and burn probabilities, derived from the simulated fire

perimeters, and fire intensity, derived from simulated flame length, were evaluated

and associated to the key factors, analyzing the anomalies induced by both land

uses, and predicted variation in fuel moisture and weather conditions.

The efficacy of wildfire simulators as tools in wildfire analysis and prediction was

confirmed by the modeling activities, at different temporal and spatial scales. The

results revealed that both accurate wind field data and custom fuel models are critical

in predicting wildfire spread and behavior, allowing to increase the reliability of the

predicted outputs.

In addition, the application of simulators in a probabilistic configuration considering

past conditions of land use and other key factors highlighted significant reductions in

wildfire size and increases in wildfire intensity in recent time steps in comparison with

simulations performed in ‘60s and ‘70s, mainly due to land use changes and fuel

dryness increase (Fig. 5). In fact, future changes in land use projected a limited but

generalized increase of sclerophyllous vegetation and forests, along with a reduction

in grasslands and open pastures, with an increase in fuel load and continuity. On the

other hand, the projected reduction in wind speed for future scenario will result in

lower wildfire rate of spread and size.

2.4. Fire drivers influencing fire activity: investigation of the past and outlook of the

future



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CMCC social economic assessment of the direct costs implied by future fire events in

the Mediterranean area is based upon area burned, direct carbon releases and

change in carbon sequestered due to future fire events derived from the model

SPITFIRE [28]. The economic assessment focuses on: the non use, non market cost

associated to the loss of forest ecosystems; the social cost implied by damages

induced by carbon emissions from forest fires; the potential value added loss

consequent to the fire-induced disruption of forest areas.

Passive value losses are estimated computing the existence value per forest hectare

in the different Mediterranean countries through meta analysis of the stated

preference literature and value transfer methodologies. In 2070, the Mediterranean

area can experience an average loss of non use value of $ 200 million and of $ 97

million in RCP 8.5 and 2.6 respectively. Losses are notably higher in the richer

countries, accordingly in the EU Med area, and particularly in Spain, which combines

high willingness to pay (high marginal passive value attached to the forest hectare)

with huge amounts of burnt hectares.

Market losses are even higher. Starting from the contribution that forestry sectors

provide to national value added and extracting from this an estimate of the value

added generated by an hectare of forest in each Mediterranean country it turns out

that the burnt area can originate a loss ranging between $ 848 million in 2035 and $

2418 million in 2070 in RCP 8.5.

The social damage implied by fire-related emissions in the Mediterranean is

computed using a comprehensive set of estimated of the social cost of carbon. What

is evaluated is the loss of carbon sequestered by vegetation in burnt areas. All in all,

the average yearly damage induced globally by Mediterranean forest fires along the

2020-2070 period amounts to $ 7587 million in the RCP8.5 and to $ 5286 million in

RCP 2.6. This average figure hides however huge differences across social cost of

carbon estimates which largely depend upon the pure rate of time preferences

adopted by the different assessments.

Finally, it is shown that if additional emissions from Euro-Mediterranean forest fires

had to be part of the EU emission reduction targets for 2030, policy costs would

increase between 0.3 and 0.9 additional per cent points of GDP depending on the

climatic model used.

2.5. Economic assessment of future fire regime driven by climate-change



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3. POLICY AND MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS

In this paragraph, the management implication deriving from CMCC results in FUME

project are presented:

One of the main limitations for the analysis of long-term fire regimes was the

lack of long-term comparable and harmonized historical records. Further

efforts towards harmonized definitions, formats and methodologies in fire data

acquisition and assemblage across countries are needed.

Fire activity has been changing in the Euro Mediterranean countries, also

thank to the law enforcement and the improvement of fire management

services and monitoring systems across the analysed countries [e.g. 26].

However, fire extreme events under severe weather conditions occurred in

recent years (e.g., 2007, 2009) seemed to overwhelm the fire-fighting

agencies. Progress in weather forecasting, as well as long-range predictions,

may be used to enhance fire danger and risk prediction and anticipate fire

season dynamics.

LUC modeling results suggest that Mediterranean future land use distribution,

if not appropriately regulated, and if combined to expected climate trends,

would contribute to continuously increase land vulnerability to fires. On the

other hand, modeling is confirmed a valuable tool in land protection planning,

including fire hazard/vulnerability reduction strategies.

Socio-economic, climate and biophysical aspects should be all considered

when assessing future fire risk scenarios. Indeed, our results showed the

relevance of each standalone driver-category as well as the importance of

accounting for their interconnection.

Wildfire simulators can provide data, maps, and guidelines that can be used

from tactical and strategic planning of wildfire management, to firefighter

training, and even to real-time firefighting. Throughout the output of these

tools, policy makers and management agencies can plan investments and

activities and evaluate the responses at fine scale, even in a perspective of

future climate changes and/or other changes.



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Forest fire events can entail and induce non-negligible economic losses.

Moreover, the values highlighted in this research should be considered lower

bound estimates of the cost involved, as for instance they do not account for

impact on health and loss of human life. This calls for pro-active policy

interventions at the national and local level to put in place appropriated

anticipatory measures.

4. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This work was funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme

(FP7/2007-2013) under Grant Agreement 243888 (FUME Project - Forest fires under

climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-

affected areas of the world).

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6. IMAGES AND TABLES

Fig. 1 The FUME spatial domain

Fig. 2 Evolution of average fire number and area burned by time steps (1985-1989, 1990-1994,1995-1999, 2000-2005) in FUME EU-Med study areas (modified from 11)



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Fig. 3 EU-Med scale maps show simulated changes in land use distribution from year 2000 (a)to 2100 (b).

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2040 2070 2100

Mha

years

Fire Hazard

very lowlowmediumhigh

LegendAgriculture-CropsAgriculture-TreesAgroforestryAgriculture-Natural VegetationHerbaceous vegetation ForestsShrubsShrubs (with scattered trees)Burnt areas Urban with vegetationOpen spacesArtificialWetlandsWater

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution in surface (Mha) of fire hazard classes based on LUC classification and projections. The base year 2000 is compared with three future periods in the short (2040), medium (2070) and long (2100) term.



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Fig. 5 On the left, maps of the North Sardinia (Italy) study area showing FlamMap flame length (m) estimates using different scenarios of fuel moisture and wind speed; the fuel model map was derived from 1977 land cover and land use data. On the right, temporal variation (%) of FlamMap burn probabilities calculated between 1977 and 2000 using different scenarios of fuel moisture and wind speed. The burn probability is the chance that a pixel will burn considering one ignition in the whole study area (from 29)



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Fires in the perspective of future changes: the contribute of CMCC to FUME Project

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