CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER REDUCTION IN NIGERIA

By

E A Olofin (PhD)Professor of GeographyBayero University, Kano

Text of a Paper for the 53rd Annual Conference of theAssociation of Nigerian Geographers (ANG) Organized by theDepartment of Geography, Lagos State University for the ANG

21st – 25th November, 2011

ABSTRACT

Based on literature context analysis and personal experience,this paper investigates the expected effects of climate changeon environmental hazards in Nigeria and reviewed the disasterreduction strategies available or in practice to amelioratethe impacts of such hazards and prevent them from developinginto disasters. It is shown that the climate-driven hazardsaffecting Nigeria currently include drought, desertification,floods, rainstorms, sea surges, some of which have assumedenvironmental disasters, particularly for the most vulnerablegroups such as the rural poor, women and children. It isargued that these hazards would be intensified under climatechange platform result in disasters for more people ifdisaster reduction strategies are pursued. Mitigating andadaptation policies and strategies recommended, formulatedand/or in practice in Nigeria are listed to include droughtand desertification policy, drought preparedness action plan,food security and poverty alleviation programmes, greening theenvironment through tree-planting programmes, reduction in gasemission through anti-gas-flaring policies and renewableenergy utilization programmes, and a lot more. The problem isthat the publication and implementations of these policies andstrategies have suffered serious setbacks. It is recommendedthat these policy and action plan documents that are currentlygathering dust on government and Non-government organizationshelves should be dusted, upgraded, published, given wide

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publicity and implemented to save the poor of the country fromthe imminent disasters that are waiting to occur under climatechange conditions.

Key words: climate, environment, disasters, policies,

strategies

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1. Introduction

Climate Change is the variation in climatic conditions

that is showing some irreversible characteristics. In other

words, it is a condition that shows a trend towards a

particular condition of more or less. Thus, the issue of

climate change today is seen as a situation that is pointing

to a change in the contemporary climate in an irreversible

manner to a new type of climate in all parts of the earth. The

forcing mechanisms are believed to have become intensified

since 1997, or so (Gershunov, et al., 1999) and increases in

the atmospheric greenhouse gases have emerged as the dominant

forcing mechanism (Oldfield, 1998). Mann et al. (1998) have

shown that three of the years between 1991 and 1998 were

warmest across the Northern Hemisphere since at least 1400 AD.

What the new type of climate will be for specific areas

of the world is one of the pre-occupations of the scientists

tackling the Climate Change phenomenon. Specifically, the

change is towards a warming globe, popularly referred to as

“Global Warming”, with a chain of associated environmental

reactions, some of them negative. Thus, contemporary climatic

conditions are becoming highly hazardous or risky, especially

to the more vulnerable – women, children and the poor.

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Such climate-driven hazards include drought, aridity and

extreme variability in rainfall. The increasing and

widespread incidence of drought in recent decades has always

been cited in explaining the apparent concomitant incidence of

land degradation in the drylands of the country. Also, the

increasing aridity – decline in mean rainfall without

necessarily ushering in drought – is believed to enhance the

desiccation of the environment by reducing the effectiveness

of rainfall. Storms of various types including sea storms,

rainstorms, dust and sand storms; hurricanes, and tornadoes

are intensifying in the tropical world. Such storms lead to

floods, soil erosion, destruction of physical and human

infrastructure, and other socioeconomic problems, often

reaching disastrous proportions. It is believed that the

climate change phenomenon would steepen these hazards

(Adebayo, 2010) and put many more people at risk of the

resultant disasters if the capacity of the more vulnerable is

not improved through disaster reduction strategies.

This paper examines, through literature context analysis

and personal experience, the climate-driven hazards affecting

Nigeria, projects their intensification under a climate change

scenario, identifies the more vulnerable groups and explains

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how to prevent the hazards from resulting in disasters through

disaster reduction strategies.

2. Climate-Driven Hazards in Nigeria

As mentioned above, the climate-driven hazards in Nigeria

include drought, intensified sea surges and coastal erosion

traceable to the effect of sea level rise as well as

rainstorms, floods and windstorms. The sea surges could well

be the result of a slight increase in the mean level of the

Atlantic Ocean brought about by ice-cap melting under the

global warming phenomenon. For example, Sinclair (1991) has

observed that since the 1980s there has been a sharp decrease

in the amount of snow cover on the Earth's land surface and

that scientists have recorded a decrease of 15 percent, or

more, in the thickness of the sea ice over a large area north

of Greenland.

Under current climatic conditions, aridity increases

northward in Nigeria in terms of total annual rainfall and

number of rainy days. In recent years, the aridity has been

compounded. For example, Ibrahim (1998) has shown that where

the rainy days used to be 120, they have reduced to 90 days

and, in the extreme north, where there used to be 90 rainy

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days there are only 60 in recent years. Drought occurrences

are more devastating. For example, drought and associated

famine had occurred in Nigeria in the last 60 years in

1954/1956, 1972/1973, 1982/1983 stretching to 1984 and

1995/96. The major droughts, which are regional and are

believed to have a 30-year cycle in the last 100 years, are

known to have occurred in 1913/1915, 1942/1944 and 1972/1973.

There are also 10-year cycle droughts which are usually

localized, even in areas lying along the same latitude (Draft

of Drought Preparedness Document, FMEnv, 2006).

The Drought Preparedness document indicates that the

impacts of drought are usually disastrous and often dramatic

particularly for the most vulnerable groups – women and

children. Drought forces the inhabitants of the Nigerian

drylands to resort to survival strategies, which further

exacerbate the desertification problems, with associated

reduction in land productivity and worsening poverty problem.

The effects of the 1972/73 drought in the worst hit parts of

northern Nigeria reduced the yields of some main crops to less

than one-tenth of those of good years. Losses of Livestock

during the same period ranged from 50 – 100 percent. Mortimore

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(1989) has described the magnitude of crop failure, starvation

and loss of human and animal life that occurred in the

drylands of Nigeria during the 1972/73 drought. The expected

conditions under the emerging climate change scenario would be

worse than those under the 1972/73 drought.

The greatest irony, of course, is that the same areas

that suffer droughts during one season are likely to go under

floods in the next or parts of the same season because the

rains, even when less in amount, often come in high intensity

that results in flash flows and floods. Indeed, all over

Nigeria, the rainy season commences with rain and windstorms

portending great hazards wherever they occur.

3. Intensification of Climate-Driven Hazards under Climate

Change

It is envisaged that the current climate-driven hazards

affecting Nigeria will intensify under the emerging climate

change scenario. In general, most climate change models

predict an increase of extreme events associated with

increased irregularity and decreased predictability. Overall,

major effects could be classified according to Nori et al.

(2008) as:

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Changing rainfall patterns, with increased variabilityexpected and declining water balances;

Biodiversity shifts in both time and space; Changes in wind patterns; More frequent and intensified floods and droughts; and Changes in oscillations of recurrent events such as El

Nino, heat waves and tropical cyclones.

These effects indicate a worsening of the current

climate-driven hazards which may easily attain disastrous

proportions. The inter-play of rainfall and high temperature

poses serious threats to water availability that could result

in more severe agricultural drought and greater crop failure

as well as deficient and inferior water availability for human

and animal consumption. Thus, Olofin (2004) observed that one

of the expected results of climate change in Nigeria would be

a further drying up of the semiarid belt through increasing

and intensified occurrence of drought and desertification and

dry-and-wet conditions in the currently humid regions.

Although West Africa is one of the regions of the world that

presents the most uncertainty, and the most disagreement among

models, as regards future trends in precipitation (Anderson

2008), nonetheless, Ouan (2008) believes that Africa's

drylands face the prospect of increasing aridity and climate

variability, undermining the sustainability of rain-fed

agriculture. However, an average of the major models suggests

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a modest increase in rainfall for the Sahel with little change

on the Guinean coast, although there are models which project

either strong drying or strong moistening. Thus, it is wise to

prepare communities in the drylands of Nigeria for both

droughts and floods events, so that whichever comes, they will

be in a position to minimize the risk and use opportunities

presented to avoid disaster.

4. The Most Vulnerable Groups to Climate Change Phenomenon

Worldwide it is believed that the most vulnerable groups

consist of the rural poor, especially their women and

children. Poverty makes human beings more vulnerable to the

effects of natural hazards and the poor persons’ coping

strategies are seriously jeopardized and compromised, such

that a small hazard soon becomes a major disaster. It is for

this and other reasons that poverty reduction (or eradication

if possible) has been at the core of sustainable development

worldwide. Unfortunately, despite such international efforts,

poverty has become more widespread in many countries in recent

years making poverty reduction a crucial tool for coping with

the effects of climate change and progress towards the

achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). A

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Consortium of international forum (undated) commenting on

poverty and climate change stated emphatically that: “climate

change is happening and will increasingly affect the poor”.

Nigeria and other less developed countries are the worst

for the proportion of poor inhabitants. In Nigeria about 70%

of the inhabitants are feared to be living below the poverty

threshold of about US$1 per day (Olofin 2008). A more graphic

comment on poverty in Nigeria was the 1996 publication of the

Federal Office of statistics which shows that a multiple

indicator cluster survey indicates that

Only one in every ten Nigerian can be described as non-poor. The other90 percent are described as either "core poor" or "moderately poor”.

It was emphasized that in the context of 1996 population

estimates, the harsh reality is that less than 11 million

people in Nigeria could be described as "living people", while

the remaining 99 million people could best be described as the

"living dead". Today, based on the 2006 population figure, it

means that only 14 million of the 140 million Nigerians are

“living people” and the remaining 126 million are “living

dead”. It is not difficult to see what will happen when the

already “living dead” is hit by a disaster fueled by climate

change.

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5. An Overview of Disaster Reduction Strategies in the Face of

Climate Change

DFID (2006:4) quoted the UNDP’s definition of disaster

reduction as:

“The systematic development and application of policies, strategiesand practices to minimize vulnerability, hazards and the unfolding ofdisaster impacts throughout a society, in the broad context ofsustainable development.”

In essence, this means preventing hazards or ameliorating

their impacts from becoming disasters because it is argued

that environmental hazards are environmental risks but when

they occur in magnitudes beyond the affected people’s

capacity, leading to the loss of life and property, they

become disasters. Worldwide, efforts continue to be geared

towards the formulation and implementation of strategic

policies that can help reduce the risk posed by the impacts of

climate change as currently known, among other risks. A

publication of the UN Strategy for Disaster Reduction

formulated a general Disaster Risk Reduction Frame Work

(Figure 1) which includes risks related to climate change with

guidelines specifying what nations are expected to do (ISDR

2007). Many countries have started to follow this framework

and adopting the guidelines and prioritization recommended.

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For example, a Japanese Subcommittee on Climate Change

Adaptation (2008) argues that there are two approaches (what

it calls two wheels) to disaster risk reduction: mitigation

and adaptation with adaptation taken as the immediate

priority. It sees mitigation as strategies put in place to

reduce or absorb greenhouse gases while adaptation is

explained as strategies put in place to reduce possible damage

or disaster by developing systems to cope with expected

impacts of climate change.

For mitigation, the establishment of a low-carbon society

should be pursued by introducing carbon-dioxide reduction

measures such as establishment of carbon sinks (vegetation) to

prevent urban “heat islands”, the use of alternative energy

sources rather than the burning of fossil and carbon fuels,

particularly increasing reliance on solar energy, wind and

small scale hydraulic power generation.

In the case of adaptation, it is imperative that all

nations must put in place coping strategies that would reduce

the impact of climate change related disasters that have been

enumerated earlier. Many countries are already putting in

place coping strategies such as those for effective management

and assessment of flood risks as the EU is doing, establishing

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early warning systems for droughts as is the case in Canada

and formulating policies on other adaptation strategies with

functional implementation guidelines.

One common adaptation strategy is poverty eradication or

reduction. Indeed, it is generally believed that one of the

most important strategies for disaster reduction is poverty

eradication, or alleviation. Yet, in the last decade or so,

poverty has become more widespread in spite of international

efforts to the contrary, thereby making poverty reduction the

core challenge for development in the 21st century, as well as

a serious challenge to the reduction of climate change related

disasters. The poor are already very vulnerable as things are.

The impacts of climate change and the vulnerability of poor

communities to these impacts would be superimposed on the

existing vulnerability unless the poor is empowered

financially and materially.

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SOURE: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2007)

A list of adaptation strategies for climate-change

related risks being pursued by the international communities

include:

Adaptation strategies for floods and storm surges which

involve the assessment of flood risks based on available

knowledge and the predictions of the impact of climate

change; preparation of flood hazard and flood risk maps

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and the formulation of risk management plans based on

results of the studies.

Adaptation strategies for droughts which involve climate-

change impact assessment on water resources, promotion of

water-saving enhancement, ground- and underground-water

storage, water transfer facilities, water saving by users

through prioritization and monitoring climatic trend.

In all these, the place of effective national policy that

gives clear directives and implementation action plans is

clearly emphasized.

6. Strategic Policies towards Disaster Reduction in Nigeriaand Means of Implementation

The hazards of climate change that can affect Nigeria

have already been enumerated above to include drought and

desertification in the drylands of the country, sea level

rising that will lead to increased and intensified sea surges

and coastal erosion at the marine fringes and floods all over

the country. There is the mitigating policy towards stopping

gas-flaring to reduce Nigeria’s contribution to global carbon

emission and achieve a low-carbon society. However, its

implementation has suffered deadline postponement over and

over again. Concerning drought and desertification, the

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Federal Ministry of Environment had in 2006 drafted a drought

and desertification policy for Nigeria which is yet to see the

light of day. Based on that policy, a drought preparedness

action plan document (FMEnv 2006) was also formulated,

containing strategies for adapting to drought that spell out

appropriate responses to drought events. These are set out in

Boxes 1, 2 and 3, with minimal modifications

BOX 1DROUGHT EMERGENCE RESPONSE

Rapid Response MeasuresDrought preparedness plans are very useful in the

development of rapid response system for drought occurrencesand their impacts. A drought rapid response system willinclude: - Identifying the vulnerable areas, population and economicand environmental sectors. The function shall be carried outby the Risk Assessment Committee.- Mobilising the people and different levels of government andauthorities into action. It is expected that the DroughtMitigation Committee shall play this role.- Response action to meet the food, water, Medicare, shelterand other basic necessities of life of the vulnerable peopleand communities to be carried out by the Drought MitigationCommittee.- The various subcommittees of the Drought Task Force at bothFederal and State levels will need to work in harmony torespond to the situations that may arise. The goal of thesystem is to reduce drought impact on the people.

The specific emergency Response programmes should include:- Establishment of alert procedures for water quality problems- Augmentation of water supplies/identify alternative sources- Provision of emergency food relief- Provision of emergency funding (loans, grants, credits, etc)

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- Prevention of wild fires to safeguard the limited vegetation- Provision of livestock feed and watering pointsSOURCE: Fed. Ministry of Environment (2006)

BOX 2DROUGHT EMERGENCE RESPONSE

Indigenous Coping SystemAlthough Local, State and Federal Governments will usuallyrespond to drought and other hazards due cognisance musthowever be given to the time-tested indigenous coping systemsof the communities of the affected areas, which include thefollowing:- Multi-cropping and intercropping systems- Use of drought resistant crop varieties e. g. millet andsorghum- Soil and water conservation measures- Storage of grains (by means of local silos- Reduction of livestock numbers by culling- Consumption of famine foodstuff such as fruits etc- Sale of assets- Migration to safer areas The indigenous coping system should be integrated withgovernment and other responses from international donors. Inthis regard, Universities and the FME on behalf of theResearch and Development subcommittee of the Drought TaskForce should carry out a survey of the Indigenous CopingStrategies of the drought vulnerable communities with the viewto document and integrate them into the drought responsesystem.SOURCE: Fed. Ministry of Environment (2006)

Box 3DROUGHT EMERGENCE RESPONSE

Emergency Relief ArrangementWhen situation of drought occurs in different states, the

Federal and State Government undertake relief measures byproviding drinking water, food grain, and fodder and foodsubsidies to special and vulnerable groups. The work plan forthe emergency relief arrangement is as follows: -

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a) Alert on drought (based on early warning system): Thedrought monitoring team gives alert on drought.b) Instruction to act (i.e. triggering the plan):i) Long-term warning - 3 months minimumii) Short-term warning - 2 weeks minimumThe emergency relief arrangement is a short-term arrangementto mitigate the effect of drought.c) Rapid Assessment- First, there should be a tour to the affected zones toobtain all possible information about the situation (i.e.determine the extent of damage). Decide on the type ofassistance including relief materials to be rendered anddistributed to the zones. Prior to the deployment ofresources, the following questions must be answered: -i) Who needs the resources?ii) What is needed?iii) When is the resource required?iv) Where is the resource needed?vi) Why is the specific resource required? vii) Are there other options?vii) Why this is the most appropriate resource for themission? viii) How will the resource be delivered?Secondly, prepare, store move and distribute the reliefmaterials to the affected zones.SOURCE; Fed. Ministry of Environment (2006)

In the case of floods, the Hadejia-Komadudgu-Yobe

Committee has fashioned out some coping strategies for

adapting to floods in the basin, which can be adopted for all

states prone to flooding. A summary of the provisions is

contained in Article 19 of the Water Charter formulated by the

committee for the basin and this is presented in Box 4. There

are also poverty reduction, food security, gas-flaring and

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renewable energy policies formulated to address other

environmental risks.

It is clear then that Nigeria has in place policies and

disaster reduction strategies that can prevent the

intensification of environmental hazards under the climate

change scenario from developing into disasters and ameliorate

their impacts to remain within the coping ability of the

citizens. What remains is the political will and prioritizing

ability to make the policies and strategies work.

Box 4ARTICLE 19 – Flooding

1. Each Basin State shall develop and maintain datainventory on flood prone areas and establish a functionalflood data bank.

2. Liaise with relevant Ministries/Agencies to promote andstrengthen the establishment of meteorological and rivergauging stations to generate adequate data for floodforecasting.

3. Develop emergency preparedness plan for monitoring,evaluating and mitigating flood disasters incollaboration with the National Emergency ManagementAgency (NEMA).

4. During actual flood situations, the Basin statesshall:a) Liaise with operators of dams to minimize the adverseimpacts of released flood water;

b) Put in place appropriate mechanism and structuresfor flood control and water conservation;

i) Device strategies for informing and managing the populationduring flood in collaboration with NEMA; and

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ii) Monitor all activities that could increase runoff and/orblock water channels.

Source HKYB Trust Fund (2007)

7. Conclusion

It has been demonstrated that climate change would usher

in into this country extreme weather conditions that portent

intensified environmental hazards that would be beyond the

coping capacities of the majority of Nigerians except disaster

reduction policies and strategies are put in place to

ameliorate the impacts of the intensified hazards. The

greatest activity at risk is agriculture and the most

vulnerable people are the rural peasant farmers, the poor,

women and children, particularly since agriculture is still

largely dependent on the vagaries of weather in the country.

Some of the climate-driven hazards that have assumed disaster

proportions under the contemporary drought conditions have

been used to project how severe the disasters under climate

change scenario could be. Thus, it is imperative that both

mitigating and adaptation measures should be embedded in the

policies and strategies of governance in order to lessen the

impact of the envisaged disaster. Fortunately, mitigating and

adaptation policies and strategies have been formulated to

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reduce environmental disaster related to drought,

desertification and flood as well as policies to alleviate

poverty in Nigeria and to evolve a low-carbon society, except

that their publication and implementation have not fared well.

There is also the mitigating policy geared towards stopping

gas-flaring in order to reduce Nigeria’s contribution to

carbon emission suffering the same lukewarm fate. It is

recommended that these policy and action plan documents that

are currently gathering dust on government and organization

shelves should be dusted, upgraded, published, given wide

publicity and implemented to save the poor of the country from

the imminent disasters that are waiting to occur under climate

change conditions.

8. References

Adebayo, A. A. (2010) Climate: Resource and Resistance toAgriculture, 8th Professorial Inaugural Lecture, FederalUniversity of Technology, Yola, LAPC, FUTY, May 2010

Anderson, S (2008) Climate change – how will it affect thedrylands? Haramata Bulletin of the Drylands, 53: 14 – 15

Consortium of Ten International Organizations (undated) Povertyand Climate Change: Reducing Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation

DFID (2006) Reducing the Risk of Disasters – Helping to Achieve SustainablePoverty Reduction in a Vulnerable World, A DFID Policy Paper 30pp,http://www.unisdr.org/news,DFID-reducing-risk-of-disasters.pdf

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Federal Ministry of Environment (2006) National Drought PreparednessPlan, Draft, Unpublished, Abuja

Gershunov, A.; T. P Barnett & D. R. Cayan (1999) North Pacificinterdecadal oscillation seen as factor in ENSO-relatedNorth American climate anomalies. EOS, Transactions, AmericanGeophysical Union, 80(3): 25- 30.

HKYB Trust Fund (2007) Water Charter, Unpublished TechnicalReport

Ibrahim, A. M. (1998) Livelihood Options Under Intensifying Aridity inNortheastern Nigeria. Unpublished Ph. D. Thesis, Dept. ofGeog. Bayero University, Kano.

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR, 2007)Adapting to Climate Change and Reducing Disaster Risk,www.unisdrafrica.org/...

Japanese Subcommittee on Climate Change Adaptation (2008)Climate Change Adaptation Strategies to Cope with Water-related Disastersdue to Global Warming (Draft Policy Report) Panel on InfrastructureDevelopment, 61pp

Mann, M.; R. S. Bradley & M. K. Hughes (1998) Global scaletemperature patterns and climate forcing over the pastsix centuries. Nature, 382: 779 -788

Mortimore, M. (1989) Adapting to Drought: Farmers, Famine andDesertification in West Africa. Cambridge, Cambridge Univ. Press.

Nori, M, Taylor M., & Sensi, A (2008) Browsing the Fences: PastoralLand Rights, Livelihoods and Adaptation to Climate Change. Issue PaperNo. 148, International Institute for Environment andDevelopment (IIED)

Oldfield, Frank (1998) For research on Climate Change, past isthe key to future. EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union,80(3): 493- 494.

Olofin, E. A. (2004) Climate Change and Water ResourcesManagement: Implications for Food Security in Nigeria;Paper for the Nigerian Meteorological Society’s (NMS)Conference on “Climate and Water Resources in the 21st

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Century: Challenges for Food Security and Health”,Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta

Olofin, E. A. (2008) Towards a viable policy for povertyalleviation by the year 2015 in Kiyawa, I et al. (2008)Poverty Alleviation in Nigeria

Olofin, E. A. (2011) Dryland Agriculture Potentials andChallenges; Invited Paper Presented at the SensitizingWorkshop Organized by the Implementation Committee on theEstablishment of a Centre for Dry Land Agriculture inBUK, March 2011

Ouan, J (2008) Drought or deluge – or a bit of both? HaramataBulletin of the Drylands, 53: 16

Sinclair, J. 1991. Global climatic change has already begun.Our Planet, UNEP, 3(2): 14-15.

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