CEBoK Module 15 Earned Value Management (EVM)

143
© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved. v1.2 Unit V - Module 15 1 Dumb and Dumber, http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0109686/ . Earned Value Management (EVM) Tracking cost and schedule performance on projects “What are my chances?” / “Not good.” / “You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?” / “I’d say more like one out of a million.” / … “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!” - Jim Carrey as Lloyd Christmas to Lauren Holly as Mary Swanson Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

Transcript of CEBoK Module 15 Earned Value Management (EVM)

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 1

Dumb and Dumber, http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0109686/.

Earned Value Management

(EVM)

Tracking cost and schedule performance on projects

“What are my chances?” / “Not good.” / “You mean, not good like one

out of a hundred?” / “I’d say more like one out of a million.” / … “So

you’re telling me there’s a chance!”

- Jim Carrey as Lloyd Christmas to Lauren Holly as Mary Swanson

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Acknowledgments• ICEAA is indebted to TASC, Inc., for the

development and maintenance of the

Cost Estimating Body of Knowledge (CEBoK®)

– ICEAA is also indebted to Technomics, Inc., for the

independent review and maintenance of CEBoK®

• ICEAA is also indebted to the following individuals who have made

significant contributions to the development, review, and maintenance of

CostPROF and CEBoK ®

• Module 15 Earned Value Management (EVM)

– Lead authors: Jennifer M. Rose, Maureen L. Tedford

– Senior reviewers: Richard L. Coleman, Brian L. Octeau, Fred K. Blackburn,

Colleen M. Craig

– Managing editor: Peter J. Braxton

2Unit V - Module 15

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 3

Unit Index

Unit I – Cost Estimating

Unit II – Cost Analysis Techniques

Unit III – Analytical Methods

Unit IV – Specialized Costing

Unit V – Management Applications

13.Economic Analysis

14.Contract Pricing

15.Earned Value Management (EVM)

16.Cost Management

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Unit V - Module 15 4

EVM Overview• Key Ideas

– Integrated baseline• Resource-loaded schedule

– Earned value• Objective progressing

– Extrapolation from Actuals

– Cost and schedule performance

• Practical Applications– EACs – risk-adjusted rollups

– EACs – alternative formulae

– Performance measurement• Contract vs. technical

• Analytical Constructs– AC (Actual Cost) = actuals to

date

– EV (Earned Value) = value of work performed

– PV (Planned Value) = budget

– EAC = AC + (BAC-EV)/PI

• Related Topics– Risk Management

– Project Management

– Schedule Analysis / Risk

Tip: This formula, while intuitive, may not be the

best predictor of EAC!BCWR

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Unit V - Module 15 5

0.0

500.0

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Management Reserve

CBB

PMB

BCWS

ACWP

BCWP

Cost Variance

Schedule

Variance

VAC

EAC or LRE

BAC

Schedule Delay

EVM within the

Cost Estimating Framework

PastUnderstanding your

historical data

PresentDeveloping

estimating tools

FutureEstimating the new

system

Earned Value

data elements

Estimate At

Complete (EAC)

formulae

EAC and

Predicted

Schedule

0.0

500.0

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Management ReserveCBB

PMB

BCWS

ACWP

BCWP

Cost Variance

Schedule

Variance

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 6

EVM and Cost Estimating

• How should Cost Estimators be involved in EVM?

• Verify Realistic Baselines

– Control Accounts that trace to BOEs

– Cost Estimator participation in IBRs

• Develop Accurate EACs

– Statistical and risk-based methods

• Gather Cost Data to Support Estimating

– IPMR and other EV data serve as data sources for estimating analogous efforts

20

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Unit V - Module 15 7

EVM Outline

• Core Knowledge

– Introduction to Earned Value

– Earned Value Management (EVM)

Components

– Earned Value Analysis

• Summary

• Resources

• Related and Advanced Topics

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Unit V - Module 15 8

Introduction to Earned Value

• EVM Objectives

• The EVM Bottom Line and Benefits

• EVM Not Universally Right

• EVM Guidance and Contract

Requirements

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Unit V - Module 15 9

• Earned Value Management (EVM) integrates Technical Scope, Schedule, and Cost for definitized contract work

• Earned Value Management System (EVMS)– Planning tool– Reporting tool– Analysis and Decision Making tool

• Provides for integrated management of program planning and execution, which can enable…– Accomplishment of Technical Scope within Cost and

Schedule parameters– Reduced or Eliminated Schedule Delay– Reduced or Eliminated Cost Overrun

EVM Objectives

15

What?

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Unit V - Module 15 10

The EVM Bottom Line

• Yeah, yeah…“integrated management” is great, but costs $$. Why should I really do it?– The cost avoidance window of opportunity is

BEFORE contract is 15% complete

– According to a study of more than 700 major DoD programs, percent overrun at completion will be within 10% of percent overrun at 20% complete

– If you can’t plan the near-term work well, you won’t plan the far term work any better

• EVM requires all work on contract to be planned before beginning– Can provide early insight into areas of concern

and opportunity

“Cost Performance Index Stability,” David S. Christensen and Scott Heise, National Contract Management Journal, 1993

Why?

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Unit V - Module 15 11

Key EVM Benefits

• Imposes discipline on resource planning process through the development of work and planning packages

• Provides disciplined, standardized approach to measurement and terminology

• Ties cost and schedule performance to technical accomplishment of work

• Provides objective analysis of performance

1

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Unit V - Module 15 12

Basic EVM Example

• Managing projects without earned value provides only part of the picture

• Traditional approach:

– Budget work

– Record Actual expenses

• Example:

– Budgeted for 4 Aquaria to be built in November at $100 each

– At end of November, spent $300

– Great! I am $100 under budget…or am I?

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Unit V - Module 15 13

Basic EVM Example

• Example (continued):

– Did I accomplish $400 worth of work while

spending only $300?

– Earned value adds a new dimension – what

is the VALUE of work accomplished

Budget vs Actual Variance

$400 $300 $100

Earned

Value

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Unit V - Module 15 14

Basic EVM Example

• Example (continued):

– At the end of November I spent $300 but

only completed 2 Aquaria

Earned CostBudget Value Actual Variance

$400 $200 $300 - $100

– So I am not only overrunning Cost, I am

also behind schedule!

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EVM Not Universally Right

• EVM costs time and money to implement

• EVM is not the best management tool for all projects

• EVM is best suited/most beneficial for projects with:– Defined deliverables/products

– Longer durations• Guidance varies by organization

• Due to set up time required

– Strict budget limits or Firm Fixed Price (FFP) contracts

– A single contract encompassing all or most of the effort• Few to no interfaces with or dependence on efforts contracted separately

• EVM less suited for projects with:– Difficult to define or open-ended objectives

– Shorter durations

– Level of Effort (LOE) support hours as the primary deliverable

Unit V - Module 15 15

EVM is required on DoD and

other government contracts

above a certain threshold

When?

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Earned Value and the Acquisition Program, Prof Roberta Tomasini, DAU, 2008

Unit V - Module 15 16

EVM Guidance

Policy Updated June 2012

Cost Reimbursement & Incentive Contracts

(EVM on FFP, LOE & T&M Contracts Discouraged)

0

Contract Type

Contract Value (Then Year $M)

EVM System

Requirements

EVM Data

Requirements

Acquisition

FundingN

o M

an

dato

ry R

eq

uir

em

en

ts

20 50

Conformance with

ANSI / EIA 748

Formal EVMS

validation not required

Contract Performance Report

(DI-MGMT-81466) (Tailored)

Dollar thresholds are the same for all budget appropriation categories.

Color of money is no longer an EVM discriminator.

Integrated Master Schedule

(DI-MGMT-81650) (Tailored)

Conformance with

ANSI / EIA 748

Formal EVMS

validation required

Contract Performance Report

(DI-MGMT-81466) (5 formats)

Integrated Master Schedule

(DI-MGMT- 81650)

Risk

Based

Decision

How?

Integrated Program Management

Report (DI-MGMT-81861)Integrated Program Management

Report (DI-MGMT-81861)

Pre

7/1

/2012

Po

st

7/1

/20

12

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v1.2

EVM Contract Requirements

Unit V - Module 15 17

$20M

$50M

Contracts >= $20M, but < $50M

EVMS must comply with guidelines in American

National Standards Institute/Electronic Industries

Alliance Standard 748, Earned Value Management

Systems (ANSI/EIA-748).

Formats 1, 5 – 7 mandatory, 2 – 4 optional

Contracts < $20M

Application of EVMS is optional

Contracts > =$50M

EVMS must be determined ANSI/EIA-748 compliant

by Cognizant Federal Agency

All formats mandatory

• Per DFARS 252.234 and the DoD IPMR

Implementation Guide, EVMS is required for cost and

incentive contracts and subcontracts as follows:

Note: EVMS is less

frequently used on

Firm-Fixed Price, Level

of Effort, and Time &

Material efforts

regardless of cost, as

well as short duration

contracts (e.g., < 1 yr)

NEW!

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 18

EVM within the Acquisition Process

GOVERNMENT

PROVIDER

ACQUISITIONSTRATEGY

DEVELOPRFP

PROPOSAL

MGT VOLUME

TECH VOLUME

COST VOLUME

DEVELOP

NEGOTIATIONSOURCE SELECTION

AWARD PROJECT

ASSIGN BUDGETS

ASSESS RISK

DEVELOP MR

ESTABLISH Perf Meas. BASELINE

14

Program Execution

& Performance

Measurement

STATUSREPORTS

Earned Value and the Acquisition Program, Prof Roberta Tomasini, DAU, 2008

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 19

Earned Value Management

(EVM) Components• Integrated Baseline Overview

• Work Breakdown Structure

• Assignment of Work

• Earned Value Data Elements

• Baseline Development

• Performance Measurement

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 20

Integrated Baseline Overview

• Key component of EVM is the Resource Loaded Schedule– Elements of the Performance Measurement

Baseline (PMB) defined early in acquisition process by Government and Contractor

• WBS Structure

• Schedule

• BOEs (justification for time phased costs and effort)

– Time-Phased Budget / Resource Loaded Schedule initially defined for proposal and refined/baselined post negotiations

• Government review of PMB occurs via Integrated Baseline Review (IBR)

15

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Unit V - Module 15 21

WBS Definition/Overview

• Work Breakdown Structure (WBS): Product-oriented division of material and work tasks

• Used to organize and define product/work to be accomplished

• Different forms:– Program Summary WBS (Government), usually

referred to as WBS

– Contractor WBS, usually referred to as CWBS

– Cost Element Structure (CES)• Level and scope may depend on the underlying data and

methodology used in developing the estimate

– WBS typically several levels higher than CWBS

1

OSD EVM Website: http://www.acq.osd.mil/evm/

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Unit V - Module 15 22

WBS Importance to EVM

• WBS provides framework within which all

Earned Value planning is accomplished

• WBS must be:

– Comprehensive

• Matches program content

– Hierarchical

– “Sufficient” level of detail

• Sufficiency depends on size, complexity, risk, and other

factors

• For EVM, level of detail for tracking costs usually lower

than level for reporting costs

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Unit V - Module 15 23

WBS Example

• WBS Sample layout for the aquaria example1.0 Aquarium Development Program

1.1 Program Management / Systems Engineering

1.2 Design Aquarium

1.3 Develop/Integrate Aquarium

1.3.1 Material Acquisition

1.3.2 Material Integration

1.3.3 Development Documentation

1.4 Test Aquarium

1.5 Deploy Aquarium

2.0 Aquarium Maintenance Program2.1 Maintain Environment

2.2 Replace Material

2.3 Maintain/replace Fish Population

NOTE: Example

WBS is notcomprehensive or

extensively detailed.

This WBS does not

adhere to

MIL-STD-881C and

therefore needs a

comprehensive WBS

Dictionary.

4

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Unit V - Module 15 24

Organizational Breakdown

Structure (OBS) Definition• Functional breakdown of Organization

– Identifies the program’s organizational structure

– Supports the identification of the function

responsible for controlling overhead costs

• Typically aligns with Company’s Org Chart

• One piece of the framework used for planning

resources

• One popular organization technique involved

Integrated Product Teams (IPTs)

– Multi-disciplined

– Overarching IPT and Working-level IPT(s)

16

Defense Acquisition Guidebook,

https://akss.dau.mil/dag/DoD5000.asp?view=document&rf=GuideBook\IG_c10.3.asp.

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Unit V - Module 15 25

Assignment of Work –

Control Accounts• WBS cross-walked to OBS Control Accounts

– Identifies Responsibility

– Result is Control Account (sometimes called a Cost Account)

• Control Account is the focal point for integration of scope, cost, and schedule

• Control Account Manager (CAM) is person responsible for:– Developing plan for Control Account (Technical Scope,

Schedule Tasks, Budget/Resources)• Work Authorization Document (WAD)

– Managing Earned Value performance within Control Account• Monitoring EVM metrics

• Analyzing control account performance status

• Reporting variances

– Conducting risk management/mitigation as required

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 26

Assignment of Work –

Work Packages• Work Packages are the lowest level at which

resources are allocated

• Within Control Accounts, work and planning packages defined at lowest level of detail– Work packages for near-term work

– Planning packages for far-term work

– Planning packages become more detailed work packages as time progresses

• Resources allocated to each work/planning package– Direct Labor

– Material

– Other Direct Charges (ODCs)

Tip: Typically 4-6

weeks long

Tip: Detail plan

typically 6 months out

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 27

Assignment of Work Illustration

Control

Account

Biological Engineering

WorkPackages

PlanningPackages

OBS DATA SUMMARIZATION

AquariumDevelopment

Program

ProgramMgmt/Systems

Engineering

Develop/Integrate Aquarium

MaterialAcquisition

MaterialIntegration

DevelopmentDocument-

ation

Environ-mentalControl

PlantLife

TropicalFish

StructuralIntegration

BiologicalIntegration

IntegrationQualityControl

TropicalEngineering

Hydro Engineering

Aqua-Botanical Engineering

Marketing

FunctionalOrganization

Contract WBSDetailedElements

Contract WBSReportingElements

Program WBSElements

Hardware Engineering

Engineering

Operations

WBS

DATA

SUMMARIZATION

Aquatics Division

Control

Account

Control

Account

Control

Account

Control

Account

Graphic adapted from EVMS Basics Concepts, Sean Alexander, Meridianet

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 28

Earned Value Data Elements

• Earned Value has five basic data elements:

Element Title Common Terminology

BCWSBudgeted Cost of Work

Scheduled

Planned Value (PV), Performance

Measurement Baseline (PMB), plan,

baseline

BCWPBudgeted Cost of Work

PerformedEarned Value (EV)

ACWP Actual Cost of Work Performed Actual Cost (AC), actuals

BAC Budget at Complete Planned Cost

EAC / LREEstimate at Complete / Latest

Revised EstimateForecasted Cost

Tip: EAC generally refers to the Government’s independent assessment of the

estimate at complete while LRE refers to the Contractor’s estimate at complete

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Unit V - Module 15 29Unit V - Module 15 29

BCWS (The Plan)

• Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS): The sum of the budgets for all work packages, planning packages scheduled to be accomplished within a given time period– The value of the work scheduled

– The baseline used to measure all performance

– The resource-loaded schedule• Picture a Gantt chart

Time

$BCWS

BAC

17

AKA Planned

Value (PV)

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Unit V - Module 15 30Unit V - Module 15 30

BCWP (What Work Was Performed?)

• Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP): The sum of all budgets for completed work packages and completed portions of open work packages– The value of the work performed

– Dependent on BCWS – can only earnas much $ as is loaded in the completed BCWS tasks

Time now

Time

$BCWS

BCWP

BAC

AKA Earned

Value (EV)

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Unit V - Module 15 31Unit V - Module 15 31

ACWP (Cost Incurred)• Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP): The costs

actually incurred to accomplish the work earned within a specified time frame

Time

BAC

$BCWS

ACWPACWP

BCWP

Contractor’s

Accounting System

Labor

Travel

Invoices

Subcontract

Invoices

Material

General Ledger

ODCsExport actuals

to EVM database

AKA Actuals (AC),

Actual Value

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Unit V - Module 15 32

BAC and LRE (End of Work)

• Budget At Complete (BAC): Cumulative BCWS at

the end of the contract

• Latest Revised Estimate (LRE): The contractor’s

best guess at how much the effort will actually cost

at the end of the contract

Time

BAC

$BCWS

ACWPACWP

BCWP

LRE

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Unit V - Module 15 33

Baseline Development

Price

Cost (CBB) f Fee

Performance Measurement

Baseline (PMB)Management

Reserve

Undistributed

Budget

Work

Packages

Planning

Packages

Distributed Budget

(Control Accounts)

Control Accounts are

the management

control point for the

integration of scope,

schedule & cost$5M$85M

$90M$10M

$10M$100M

$110M

$40M $45M

MR covers

unanticipated,

in scope

changes

Work is tied to

an activity, but

is not detail-

planned

Earned Value is

measured against

the PMB

Contract Budget

Base

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Unit V - Module 15 34

Baseline Development – PMB

• Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB)

developed– Sum of all Work/Planning Package Budgets + UB

– Undistributed Budget (UB) is:• Work tied to an activity, but not detail-planned

• Used most often when new work added to contract

• Earned Value is Measured against the PMB

• Work packages and related budget (BCWS)

are time phased using logic-driven schedule– e.g., PERT chart showing dependencies

Tip: UB usually distributed within 60 days

18

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 35

Baseline Development – MR

• Management Reserve (MR) set aside

while developing PMB

– Covers unanticipated, in scope changes

– MR % tied to level of risk and type of

contract• 2-4% low risk and/or Cost Plus

• 15%+ high risk and/or Firm Fixed Price

– More discussion on MR and its use is

covered under the Analysis of Past

Performance section

Tip: MR is most commonly 7-9% of CBB

14

19

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 36

Baseline Development – CBB

• PMB and MR together form the Contract Budget Base (CBB) (“Cost”)

• CBB plus fee yields the Total Contract Value (“Price”)

• A time-phased graphic illustrating PMB and MR forming CBB is on the next slide

• EVM should be complemented by a disciplined Risk Management (RM) approach to identifying, quantifying, and addressing unknown future events

“Integrating EVM and RM: A Statistical Analysis of Survey Results,” Alissa C. Kumley, Northrop Grumman Corporation,

ISPA/SCEA Joint International Conference, 2005

3

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Unit V - Module 15 37

Baseline Development

• Typical Phased Baseline (BCWS)

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Management ReserveCBB

PMB

BCWS

Tip: Cum PMB usually follows an S-curve.

10

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Unit V - Module 15 38

Performance Measurement

• There are different ways to estimate progress of a project– Key issue is in-process work packages

• Value is earned (BCWP) when corresponding work is accomplished

• When value will be earned is determined before beginning work using common performance measurement methods

• Assignment of method should strive to reduce subjectivity

• Table on next slide outlines:– Most common methods

– When methods are typically employed

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 39

Performance

Measurement – EV MethodsEV Method Description Type of Tasks that Use Method

Milestone

(Weighted)

Take performance as defined

Milestones (MS) are accomplished.

MSs can be weighted if one or more

are considered more important

Tasks that can be planned using

interim Milestones

Percent

Complete

Performance is taken based on

Percent of task completed

Work that does not have any

reasonable interim measurable MSs

0/100 All performance is taken when task is

complete

Short duration tasks - one month or

less

50/50

Or X%/Y%

50% (X%) performance taken when

task starts; 50% (Y%) performance

taken when task is complete

Short duration tasks - two months or

less

LOE Plan based on resource expenditure

plan – Performance always equals

Plan

Used for tasks that are more time-

oriented vice task oriented, such as

Program Management

Best Method for EVM

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 40

Example –

Performance Measurement

• Determine the best earned value

measurement technique:

– Aquarium System Program Management

– Aquarium Design

– Aquarium Deployment to Site ATLANTIC

4

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 41

Example –

Performance Measurement• Valid earned value measurement techniques:

– Aquarium System Program Management • LOE – most common method

• Milestone

– Aquarium Design• Most likely Design will be divided into smaller work

packages and multiple methods will be employed

• Milestone / Weighted Milestone – most common method

• Percent Complete

– Aquarium Deployment to Site ATLANTIC• 0/100

• X%/Y%

• Milestone Multiple Answers are Justifiable

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© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 42

Earned Value Analysis• Elementary EV Analysis

• Analysis of Past Performance

• Variance Reports

• Projection of Future Performance

• Earned Value Review Process

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 43

Elementary EV Analysis

• Common calculated Data Elements:

– Schedule Variance (SV) = BCWP – BCWS

– Cost Variance (CV) = BCWP – ACWP

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Management ReserveCBB

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Schedule

Variance

AKA

Accomplishment

Variance

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 44

Elementary EV Analysis

• Common calculated Data Elements:

– Variance at Complete (VAC) = BAC – LRE

– Estimate at Complete (EAC)

• Forecasting measure

• Various methods applicable

• Discussed in more detail later

– Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining (BCWR)

= BAC – BCWP

• Analysis of data, including sample

problems, in next section

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 45

Elementary EV Analysis

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Management Reserve

CBB

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BCWS

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BCWP

Cost Variance

Schedule

Variance

VAC

EAC or LRE

BAC

Schedule Delay

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 46

Analysis of Past Performance

• CV, SV, and VAC: Most common and simplest derived earned value data

• Examine current and cumulative data points and trends– Cumulative data points good for determining

average performance

– Current data points good for assessing current performance and for highlighting anomalies, errors in data, and error corrections

– Trend lines good for assessing performance over time – Sudden trend changes should be examined

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 47

Analysis of Past Performance

• Any variance over 10% is serious and should be examined– CV % = CV / BCWP = 1 – 1/CPI

– SV% = SV / BCWS = SPI - 1

• Focus on CV and SV (vice VAC)

• Variances are natural– Explained and managed, but not eliminated

• Variances, and emerging or present trends, can erase with a rebaseline

Tip: Sudden “healing” spikes in cum CV/SV

typically mean a rebaseline has occurred

“Understanding Program Resource Management through Earned Value Analysis.” Falls Church, Va.: Abba Consulting,

June 2006.

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 48

Analysis of Past Performance

• CV, SV, and VAC:

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Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 49

Example – Past Performance

• Sample problem:

– Building 8 Aquaria

• Budgeted for 4 to be built in Nov and 4 to be built in Dec

at $100 each

– At the end of Nov, contractor spent $300 and

completed 2

– Contractor now expects the project to cost a total

of $1000

– For Month-end (ME) Nov, what is cumulative

BCWS? BCWP? ACWP?

– For ME Nov, what is cumulative CV? SV? VAC?

– What are those variances telling us?

2

5

6

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 50

Example – Past Performance

• Answers:– BCWS = $400 BCWP = $200 ACWP = $300

– CV = - $100 SV = - $200 VAC = - $200

– What are those variances telling us?1. Overrunning now, accomplished less than planned, expect

overrun at complete, if task on critical path then expect a delay at complete – Facts based on data provided

2. Do not expect to repeat overrun for Aquaria #3-8 because VAC ≠ 4 * CV. Ask: Is this realistic? Why do they think overrun will not be repeated?

3. Built 2 in one month, now expect to build 6 in next month –Unlikely – Ask: How do they plan to accomplish this and not spend more $/system than budgeted

– Begin to plan for how to cover current overrun andexpected future overrun

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 51

Past Performance – Indices• Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule

Performance Index (SPI) display variances on a units-free scale– CV of $100 out of $2M is nothing

– CV of $100 out of $200 is significant

• Cost Performance Index (CPI)– Ratio of work performed to actual costs

– BCWP / ACWP

– Used to determine the value of every dollar of work accomplished (bang for the buck)

– < 1.0 is unfavorable > 1.0 is favorable

• Reciprocal of CPI– Provides the final cost of dollar’s worth of budgeted effort

– EAC Calculations use reciprocal of CPI to scale budgeted effort up to an expected completion cost

9

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 52

Past Performance – Indices

• Schedule Performance Index (SPI)

– Ratio of value of work performed to value of work planned

– BCWP / BCWS

– Used to determine the efficiency at which scheduled work is being accomplished

– < 1.0 is unfavorable > 1.0 is favorable

• Analysis using CPI, SPI similar to that using CV, SV

• Table on next slide contains possible causes for CV/CPI and SV/SPI

Tip: Examine cost and schedule together graphically to assess

visually how variances may be impacting one another.

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 53

Past Performance – Root Causes

+CV / CPI > 1.0 -CV / CPI < 1.0 +SV / SPI > 1.0 -SV / SPI < 1.0

Work is costing less than

planned:– More efficient & using

fewer hours/mat’l– Using less expensive

labor category/mat’l– Achieved a technical

breakthrough

Delay in payment. Work

complete but actuals

have not hit ledger yet

Incorrect status. Took

credit for work not

actually completed

Improper charging. Took

credit for work yet actuals

were charged against the

wrong account

Work is costing more than

planned:– Less efficient & using

more hours/mat’l– Using a more expensive

labor category/mat’l– Additional travel

(ODCs)/Rework incurred– Rates (OH, G&A,

inflation) increased– Encountered Technical

problems

Incorrect status. Did not

take credit for work

actually completed

Improper charging.

Actuals were incorrectly

charged against the

account

Requirements Change.

In scope contract

requirement changed

Work is being

accomplished faster than

planned:– More efficient & taking

less time– Achieved a technical

breakthrough

Work has been

accelerated in the

schedule. Due to

programmatic events,

work has shifted forward

Incorrect status. Took

credit for work not

actually completed

Baseline Mistake.

Incorrectly set work to

occur later than it was

supposed to

Work is being accomplished

slower than planned:– Less efficient & taking more

time.– Encountered Technical

problems

Work has slipped in the

schedule:– Due to programmatic events

(late GFE, GFI, predecessor priorities, etc.), work has shifted right

– Due to lack of resources, work has shifted right

Incorrect status. Did not take

credit for work actually

completed

Baseline Mistake.

Incorrectly set work to occur

before it was supposed to

Requirements Change. In

scope contract requirement

changed

8

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 54

Past Performance – MR

• Use of Management Reserve:

– Should have a technical reason to apply MR

– Should not be used to fix negative cost variances

– MR usage could be an indicator of problems

– Helpful MR graphs:

• MR use with CV and SV to assess visually if MR being

used to cover problems

• % MR remaining with % PMB remaining to assess

visually if MR is expended at rate similar to how program

is executing (Alternative: MR Balance vs. BCWR)

• Graph CBB vs. PMB – As MR is used and incorporated

into the PMB, the CBB and PMB lines will merge

Tip: It is good to have some MR left at end of contract to cover

approved rate changes that can occur 3-4 years later

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 55

-100.0

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Past Performance – MR

• Use of Management Reserve:

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RebaselineRebaselineRebaselineRebaseline

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 56

Past Performance – Percentages

• Other useful data:– % planned = BCWS / BAC

– % complete = BCWP / BAC

– % spent = ACWP / BAC

• Conduct analysis such as– % planned >> % complete? Problem!

– % spent >> % complete? Problem!

– % of MR used >> % complete? Problem! (unless % complete close to 100%)

– Master schedule shows % complete >> or << Earned Value % complete? Possible problem – an indication that Schedule and EV are not in sync

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 57

Past Performance – Percentages

• Graph of % planned, % complete, %

spent same as graph as BCWS, BCWP,

ACWP but on a “unit-free” scale

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© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 58

Past Performance – Anomalies

Anomaly Concern

BCWS = BCWP = ACWP

(and <> 0)

Not really using Earned Value – “Perfect data”

BCWP > 0, ACWP = 0 “Free” performance

BCWP > 0 and BCWS = 0 BCWP is dependent on BCWS, so why is there

performance without planned performance

ACWP > 0 and BCWP = 0 What is being paid for without getting any performance?

BCWP or BCWS > BAC > 100% complete? > 100% planned?

BAC > 0 and EAC = 0 Work is planned (BAC/BCWS), but costs are expected

to come in at $0 (EAC/ACWP)?

EAC > 0 and BAC = 0 Cost (EAC/ACWP) are expected for element that has

no planned value (BAC/BCWS)?

BCWS, BCWP, ACWP

negative

Negative (“giving back”) plan, performance, actuals

BAC < 0 and/or EAC < 0 Negative (contractor giving to Government) total plan

(BAC) and/or total expected plan at complete (EAC)

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 59

Example - Past Performance

• Sample Problem:

BCWS = $400 BCWP = $200 ACWP = $300

BAC = $800 LRE = $1000

– What percent of my budget has been spent

to date?

– For every $ I spend, how much value am I

receiving?

– I have used 50% of my MR to date. Should I

be concerned about having sufficient MR to

complete program?

10

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 60

Example - Past Performance

• Answers:– What % of my budget has been spent to date?

• % spent = ACWP / BAC = $300/$800 = 37.5%

– For every $ I spend, how much value am I receiving?

• CPI = BCWP / ACWP = $200/$300 = 0.67

• For every $1 spent, I receive 67 cents of value

– I have used 50% of my MR to date. Should I be concerned about having sufficient MR to complete program?

• % complete = BCWP / BAC = $200/$800 = 25%

• Yes, I should be concerned

– Using MR twice as fast as I am completing work

– Only ¼ of the way through the program (relatively early)

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 61

Variance Reports

• Variance reports (CPR Format 5 or similar report) are critical to earned value analysis process

• Variances should be explained at WBS level lower than reporting level

• Key elements in a variance report include:– Where is variance (WBS, labor/material, etc.)

– Cause

– Impact (CV or SV, and impact on VAC (Cost) and/or impact on completion date (Schedule)

– Action plan (what and when)

Warning: Variance reports written

at a summary level make it difficult

to pinpoint to which cost element(s)

the explanation refers.

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 62

Variance Reports

• Typical variance reporting thresholds:– IPMR Format 5: Top 15 WBS elements

– (+) / - 10% and/or $X

– %/$ thresholds that increase with % complete

– PM’s “Top 10” or “Critical” tasks

• Focus tends to be on negative (-%/$)

• Important to look at “good performers” (+%/$) – Areas of opportunity

– Can reprogram resources to support problems and/or to accelerate schedule

• Variance reports actions should be captured and tracked in risk mitigation process

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 63

Projection of Future Performance

• Strength of EV is it enables the identification of problems early

• Recall that final CV will be worse than the cumulative CV at the 20% completion point– Look for tendency to circumvent EVM's purpose as an “early

warning system”

– Delays in admitting/discovering cost growth is likely to result in even greater cost overrun

• Various ways to analyze and project future performance– TCPI metric designed to lend credibility (or not) to contractor

EAC (see future slide for more details)

– Formula-derived EAC• Example: EAC = ACWP + (BAC-BCWP)/CPI

• Based on EVM performance to date

• Equivalent to CPI Forecast on next slide

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 64

Future Performance – EAC

• Objective, mathematical Estimates At Complete (EACs) can be calculated

• Most common are CPI and CPI * SPI– CPI Forecast

• ACWP + BCWR / CPI = BAC / CPI

• Assumes even cost performance across the entire project equal to performance experienced to date

• Referred to as “best case” EAC

– CPI * SPI Forecast• ACWP + BCWR / (CPI*SPI)

• Also assumes that past cost and schedule performance are indicative of future performance

• Adjusts estimate to account for schedule performance experienced to date

• Referred to as “worst case” EAC

Estimate To

Completion

(ETC)

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 65

Future Performance – EAC

• Emphasis today is for government Program Offices to develop EACs independent of the EVMS

• Contractor LRE includes their assessment of cost risk, optimism, and only covers work on contract

• Independent EAC includes Government assessment of cost risk, less optimism, and work to be put on contract in the future– Should have technical input and buy-in from the

Program Team

– Sometimes equivalent to a revised cost estimate2

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 66

Future Performance – EAC

• If done correctly, the EAC:

– Generates a credible story for time phased

budget submissions and for providing

direction to the contractor

– Helps avoid FY funding surprises

– Allows team to focus on corrective actions

• If EAC calculated outside of the EVMS,

can use Earned Value data to assess

the reasonableness of the EAC

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 67

Warning: EVA does not typically

include cost estimating

methodologies (e.g., learning curve)

Future Performance – TCPI

• What is our (implicit) predicted future

performance based on data reported?

• Use the To-complete Cost Performance Index

(TCPI)

– TCPIBAC and TCPILRE

– Ratio of remaining work to complete to remaining $

available to be spent to achieve the BAC (or LRE)

– TCPIBAC = BCWR / (BAC – ACWP)

– TCPILRE = BCWR / (LRE – ACWP)

– Can also calculate TCPI for EAC forecasts

• “Indicator of the goodness” of the LRE/EAC

12

15

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 68

Future Performance – TCPI and LRE

• TCPILRE most common to analyze because it reflects what the contractor thinks about their future performance

• Compare TCPI to CPI– TCPI < CPI

• Implies lower productivity is assumed for remaining work

• If significantly lower, Ask: What additional overrun are you anticipating in the future?

– TCPI > CPI • Implies higher productivity is assumed for remaining work

• If significantly higher, Ask: What measures are you taking to improve productivity so greatly?

• Significantly higher TCPI causes validity of EAC to be in question

Tip: TCPILRE greater than Cum CPI by more than

5% (0.05) is excessively optimistic

11

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 69

Future Performance – LRE

• Can use Earned Value data to assess the reasonableness of the Contractor’s LRE (e.g., TCPI to CPI comparisons)

• Contractor typically uses estimating methods outside of EVMS to estimate the LRE (e.g., bottom-up analysis of remaining work)

• When analyzing LRE reasonableness, be aware that LRE also typically includes human input regarding future performance– Good: can account for special situations

– Bad: incorporates optimism that may be unintentionally exaggerated

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 70

Future Performance – Graph

• Graph CPI and TCPI to see how similar

the lines are over time.

• Helpful to include 5% delta line for CPI

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© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 71

Future Performance – Graph

• Graph EACs with BAC and LRE to view trends

• More information on the EAC is contained in

Advanced Topics

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BAC LRE CPI EAC CPI*SPI EAC

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© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 72

Example - Future Performance

• Sample Problem:

BCWS = $400 BCWP = $200 ACWP = $300

BAC = $800 LRE = $1000

– What is the TCPI to achieve the LRE?

– Is the LRE reasonable?

– Using independent forecasts, what is the

“best case” EAC? The “worst case” EAC?13

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 73

Example - Future Performance

• Answers:

– What is the TCPI to achieve the LRE?• TCPILRE = BCWR / (LRE – ACWP)

= (800 – 200) / (1000 – 300)

= 600 / 700 = 0.86

– Is the LRE reasonable?• CPI = 0.67; TCPI-LRE = 0.86

• TCPILRE is is more than 5% higher than CPI

• LRE may not be reasonable– Need to investigate reasoning behind CPI and

assess the reasonableness of the plans for improving performance so drastically

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 74

Example - Future Performance

• Answers (continued):

– Using independent forecasts, what is the

“best case” EAC? The “worst case” EAC?

• Best Case EAC = CPI Forecast

= BAC / CPI

= 800 / 0.67 = 1200

• Worst Case EAC = CPI*SPI Forecast

= ACWP + BCWR / CPI*SPI

= 300 + (800 – 200) / (0.67)*(0.5)

= 2100

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 75

Future Performance – Other

• Other LRE data to consider:

– ACWP > BAC

• Is an ECP “in the works” but not yet on contract?

• Is this all overrun?

• Happens frequently when % complete approaches 100%

• Greater concern when % complete < 80%

– ACWP > LRE

• Forecast must be updated (also could be “in the works”)

• Do we expect a corresponding BAC change due to an

ECP or is this all overrun?

• Happens frequently when % complete approaches 100%

• Should happen less frequently than ACWP > BAC if LRE

is updated on a regular basis

14

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 76

EAC Analysis - Example

• How is this project doing?

Performance Data

58.455.2

73.679.5

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Period

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v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 77

• EAC Predictions:

• Red Circle: ~ 15% complete. Overrun is 15 here

• Purple Oval: ~ 33% complete. Overrun stabilizes here at 24-28

• At 17th period, showing ~ 28% overrun

EAC Predictions

58.455.2

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EAC Analysis – Interpreting DataPresented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 78

Replan

76.875.5

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BCWS BCWP ACWP BAC EAC CPI*SPI

EAC Analysis – Replan

• The replan:

• Variances almost healed

• BAC close to EAC

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© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 79

• 95% complete data:

• Established “award milestones” using unearned fee to incentivize contractor

• Also imposed cost-share clause for additional overrun to further incentivize contractor

Performance Data: 95% CMP

0

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140

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$

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EAC Analysis - OutcomePresented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 80

Earned Value Review Process

• How do you get a handle on all this data?

• Steps in a review process1. What questions are most important to your

organization? (Profitability, Budget, etc.)

2. What statistics will answer those questions?

3. What metrics do you like best?• Multiple metrics for same basic questions

• Don’t use all – analysis becomes redundant

4. What is the optimal EV reporting level? What are the variance reporting thresholds?

• Important to not be too high or too low

• Let the contractors manage the work

• Let government have sufficient oversight and insight

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 81

Earned Value Review Process

1. How much progress have we made to date?

2. Are there any significant deviations from the

approved plan?

3. How efficiently are we meeting cost and

schedule objectives?

4. What is the trend (getting better or worse)?

5. Do I think program will come in on budget?

6. Does the contractor have a reasonable

estimate to complete the authorized scope

of work?

7. Do I have a reasonable estimate for

completing the authorized scope of work?

8. What actions can we take to get things back

on track?

Program Management Concerns Products of EV Analysis

1. % Complete (vs % spent)

2. CV, SV, VAC

3. CPI & SPI

4. Graphical Trend Analysis

5. TCPIBAC

6. TCPILRE

7. Statistical EAC Forecasting

Techniques

8. Variance Analysis and

Reports

Executive Overview of EVM course, MAJ Dick Cruver, NRO ACE EVMST, 1997

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 82

Earned Value Review Process

• Examine trends as well as cumulative data points

• Examine current data for anomalies, errors in data, & error corrections

• Don’t use current data for forecasting performance trends – data too volatile

• Keep in mind: – Analyzing non-perfect data

– Errors in data may cause variances and forecasted EACs to appear worse than reality

– Poor EV data could be the result of using inappropriate performance measurement techniques – Assess need to change technique

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 83

Earned Value Review Process

• Use your technical knowledge when examining data

• Always consider your existing knowledge of:

– What drove past variances

– What future risks and challenges lie ahead

• See Rules of Thumb in Advanced Topics section

• See DAU Gold Card in Summary section

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 84

Analysis “One Chart”

• The “One Chart” captures a lot of valuable information:– CV and SV with +/- 10% thresholds to visually see when variances become

extreme

– Comparison to MR allows one to see easily if MR used to heal variances

– Various VACs with a sense of the time left to reach those EAC.

SV

MR

Cost Variance -37.6 Cost Variance at Complete

Schedule Variance -91.1 CPI*SPI -467.0 CPI -161.2

Management Reserve 18.0 Contractor 0.0 PM EAC 7.1

+/- 10% Thresholds

-500.0

-400.0

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

Nov

-07

Feb-08

May-

08

Aug

-08

$K

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 85

Summary

• Summary

• Gold Card

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 86

EVM Summary

• EVM is a management technique

– Integrates technical, cost, and schedule data

– Facilitates objective, realistic management decisions

• Earned Value Management System (EVMS) is a multi-faceted EVM tool

– Planning tool

– Reporting tool

– Analysis and Decision Making tool

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 87

EVM Summary

• Major Benefits of using EVM include:

– Improved planning• Clear definition of work prior to beginning work

• Accurate level of resources

• Quick, early problem identification

• Reduced cost and schedule risks

• Reduced propensity to add work without adding budget (out of scope changes)

– Objective performance measurement• Provides true cost and schedule condition

• Encourages accurate forecasting of cost to complete

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 88

EVM Summary

• Major Benefits of using EVM include:

– Provides repeatable performance and

lessons learned data

– Provides sound data to justify requesting

resources

• Successful EVM relies on joint

partnership between Government and

Contractor

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 89

Gold Card

• Earned Value Management Gold Card

– Published by Defense Acquisition

University (DAU)

– Provides comprehensive, concise

summary of major EVM elements

– https://acc.dau.mil/CommunityBrowser.asp

x?id=19577

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 90

DAU EVM Gold CardPresented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 91

Resources

• Web Resources

• EVM References

• Earned Value

Reports

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 92

Web Resources• US DoD Earned Value: http://www.acq.osd.mil/evm/

– Policy, Papers, Tools, Links, and more

– Earned Value Management Implementation Guide and DoD 5000.2-R (under Policy)

– Earned Value Glossary and EVM “Gold Card” (under FAQ)

• Society and Company websites often have links to EVMS white papers, user groups, and other useful material– Access society websites via OSD EV Links site:

http://www.acq.osd.mil/evm/resources/index.shtml

• Acquisition Community Connection (ACC), https://acc.dau.mil/CommunityBrowser.aspx, “Participate in a Community,” “Earned Value Management” – Access company websites via ACC EV Tools site:

https://acc.dau.mil/CommunityBrowser.aspx?id=17809

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 93

References• Regulations and Guidance:

– Earned Value Management Implementation Guide (EVMIG) Revision 1, DCMA, 2006

– DoD Regulation Guidance 5000.2, USD (AT&L), 2003

– Industry Standard Guidelines for Earned Value Management (EVM),American National Standards Institute Standard 748, 2006

– Guide to Analysis of Contractor Cost Data, AFMC, 1994

– GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide: Best Practices for Developing and Managing Capital Program Costs, GAO-09-3SP, March 2,

2009

• Books– Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria: The Management Guide to

C/SCSC, Quentin W. Fleming, 1992

– Earned Value Project Management 3rd Edition, Quentin W. Fleming and Joel M. Koppleman, 2005

– Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) 4th Edition, Project Management Institute (PMI), 2008

– Practice Standard for Earned Value Management, Project Management Institute (PMI), 2005

– Project Management using Earned Value, Humphreys & Associates, 2002

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 94

References• Courses

– EV 101: Earned Value for Managers course, National

Reconnaissance Office (NRO) Acquisition Center for Excellence

(ACE) Earned Value Management Support Team (EVMST), 1997

– Executive Overview of EVM course, MAJ Dick Cruver, NRO ACE

EVMST, 1997

– Introduction to Earned Value Management course, Mike Kennedy,

TASC, 2000

– BCF 102 Fundamentals of Earned Value Management, Defense

Acquisition University (DAU),

http://icatalog.dau.mil/onlinecatalog/courses.aspx?crs_id=80

– College of Performance Management (CPM) Vendors and

Services, http://www.mycpm.org/resources/vendors-and-services/

– Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering International

(AACE) Certifications and Education Programs,

http://www.aacei.org/educ/

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 95

References• Briefings

– Earned Value Management Systems (EVMS) Basic Concepts,

Sean Alexander, Meridianet

– The Earned Value Body of Knowledge (EV-BOK), Quentin W.

Fleming, Primavera Systems, Inc., 1998

– NRO Use of EVMS briefing, NRO ACE EVMST

– 7th Annual Cost Schedule Performance Management Conference materials, Various Authors, 1995

NEW!

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 96

References• Miscellaneous

– wInsight IPT Survival Guide, Eleanor Haupt, NAVAIR, and MAJ

Cassy Robinson, USAFR, Joint Primary Aircraft Training System

Program,

http://www.earnedvalue.biz/downloads/winsight_resources/Masteri

ng.pdf

– Earned Value Homepage, Office of Secretary of Defense (OSD),

http://www.acq.osd.mil/evm, 2003

– Earned Value Management Gold Card, Defense Acquisition

University (DAU),

https://acc.dau.mil/CommunityBrowser.aspx?id=19577, 2012

– Earned Value Bibliography,

http://www.suu.edu/faculty/christensend/ev-bib.html

– “Cost Performance Index Stability,” David S. Christensen and Scott

Heise, National Contract Management Journal, 1993

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 97

Integrated Program Management Report

• Integrated Program Management Report

(IPMR)

– Cost and Schedule reporting format (DI-MGMT-

81861) required for solicitations and RFPs issued

after July 1, 2012

– Replaces previously required CPR (DI-MGMT-

81466A) and IMS (DI-MGMT-81650)

– Formats 1 – 6 are reported monthly and Format 7 is annually

– Formats 1 – 4 remain similar to CPR reporting, Format 5 is revised and Formats 6 - 7 are new

NEW!

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 98

IPMR Formats

• Format 1 (WBS Report)– Current period and cumulative data by WBS

• Format 2 (Functional Report)– Current period and cumulative data by functional categories

• Format 3 (Baseline Report)– PMB changes enacted in current month

• Format 4 (Manpower Report)– Actual and latest revised manpower reported by functional categories

• Format 5 (Variance Report)– Narrative summary of top 15 variances, impact, and corrective action

• Format 6 (Schedule Report)– Program Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)

• Format 7 (Historical Report)– Time-phased historical & forecast cost submission

NEW!

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 99

Contract Performance Report

• Contract Performance Report (CPR)

– DI-MGMT-81466A

– Typically used for larger, higher interest

programs

– Most common formats requested by Government are Formats 1, 3, and 5

– Most companies manage by functional categories (Format 2 and 4)

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 100

CPR Formats

• Format 1 (WBS Report)

– Current period and cumulative data by WBS

• Format 2 (Functional Report)

– Current period and cumulative data by functional categories

• Format 3 (Baseline Report)

– PMB changes enacted in current month

• Format 4 (Manpower Report)– Actual and latest revised manpower reported by functional

categories

• Format 5 (Variance Report)– Narrative summary of variances, impact, and corrective action

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 101

Other Cost Reports

• Cost/Schedule Status Report (CSSR):– Similar to CPR Format 1, but reports only

cumulative data

– This report was rescinded with the March 2005 EVM memo from USD AT&L

– Contracts in place in March 2005 may still use this report

• Contract Funds Status Report (CFSR): Contractor’s estimate for contract funding requirements

• Contractor Cost Data Report (CCDR):– Primary method used to collect historical cost data

on DoD programs

4

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 102

Related and Advanced Topics

• Earned Value History

• Integrated Baseline Review

• Baseline Analysis

• DCMA Tripwires

• EV, ES, and the IMS

• EVM/RM Integration

• Advanced EACs

• Rules of Thumb

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 103

Earned Value History

• Cost/Schedule Control System Criteria (C/SCSC)– Established in 1967 by Government

– Defined minimal standards for contractor management control systems

– Based on studies of Industry and Gov’t practices

– Did not impose a specific system

• Industry Standard Guidelines for EVMS– Industry-defined standards and practices for

managing acquisitions

– Recognized by DoD in 1996 as a reliable basis for earned value management

http://www.acq.osd.mil/evm/resources/policies-standards.shtml

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 104

Integrated Baseline Review (IBR)

• An Integrated Baseline Review (IBR) is conducted after contract award

– Government PM and technical staff work jointly with contractor counterparts

– Verify the technical content of the PMB

– Verify sufficiency of the related budgets and schedules

• IBR also supports understanding of risks inherent in the PMB

• Typically, follow-on IBRs occur after a major program event (e.g. rolling wave, re-plan, re-baseline, single-point-adjustment or OTB)

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 105

What is Reviewed in an IBR?

Product Delivery Planning (Business Case, Program Execution Plan, Requirements Set)

Program Phases and Control Gates(Design, Develop, Test, Production, Deploy)

SRR PDR TRR IOC FOC

Technical / Prog Mgmt

Schedule

Resources

• SOW

• CWBS/OBS

• CWBS Dictionary

• Requirements

• Technical Framework

• Product to CWBS mapping

• BOM

• Program Management Plan

• Risk Management Plan

• Program Execution Plan

• Technical Planning Assumptions

and Risks

• RAM

• Work Authorizations

• Task Descriptions

• Budget Change Request

• BOE

• Planning Templates

• Integrated Master Schedule

• Summary, Intermediate, Detail

schedules

• Vertical and Horizontal Integration

• Schedule Margin / Reserve

• Critical Path

• Schedule Assumptions and Risks

• Dependencies: Internal, External,

GFx, Legacy / Heritage

• Entry and Exit Criteria

• Resource Loaded Schedule

• Control Account Plans-

Timephased budget and

resources

• Weekly name runs

• Staffing plans

• Time-phased forecast

• Reports (CPR, CFSR)

Risks and Opportunities (Quantified / Qualified)

Process

Framework and

Artifacts enables

Standard Work,

Templates,

Planning

Feeds

Demonstrate

Relationships in

Wall-walks,

Storyboards

With threaded

traces

Show

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 106

Baseline Analysis

• Common Baseline Problems include:– Rubber Baseline

• Excessive changes

• “Kick the can down the road,” i.e., moving work toward end of contract - More painful to fix later

– Front-Loaded Baselines• Too much budget and insufficient work planned in early

stage off project

• Represents poor initial planning

– Out of Date baselines• Contract changes not incorporated into PMB in a timely

manner

• Baseline lacks sufficient detail to achieve adequate performance measurement

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 107

Baseline Analysis - Rebaselining

• PMB changes frequently throughout the life of the contract– Typical to change at least quarterly due to added

work or unforeseen changes requiring use of MR

– Referred to as Baseline Change

• PMB is frequently Rebaselined at least once during project– Rebaseline represents major revamping of PMB

– Acceptable reasons to Rebaseline include:• Major new work awarded/added to contract

• Customer driven changes to end product

• Approval of new approach to solving customer problem

– Avoid rebaselining solely to eliminate variances

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 108

Baseline Analysis – OTB

• Over Target Baseline (OTB) developed

when:

– Work performed is no longer consistent

with the PMB and CBB

– Contractor needs OTB to effect proper

management control

• OTB typically used when remaining

work is significantly greater than

available budget

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 109

Baseline Analysis – OTB

• OTB, as with any major replan, should

be used with caution

– Masks contract performance

– Should be done early and only once

– Best to use OTB from current position and

not erase past variances

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 110

Baseline Analysis – Post Rebaseline

• If rebaseline is major, it presents a challenge

for analyzing performance data

• A rebaseline usually eliminates all variances

– Often sets BCWS=BCWP=ACWP so CV=SV=0

– Updates BAC and LRE so VAC=0

– Cumulative Performance Indices hover near 1.0

• Cumulative data shows smaller % variances

since the base is larger

• Difficult to see if contractor is performing any

better than before rebaseline

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 111

Baseline Analysis –

Post Rebaseline Tips• Better analysis conducted by

considering performance since the rebaseline

– Subtract cumulative BCWS, BCWP & ACWP at the rebaseline point from cumulative BCWS, BCWP & ACWP reported in current month’s reports

– Compute CV, SV, CPI, etc. using the modified values

– Provide measure of performance since the re-baseline

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 112

Baseline Analysis - Example

• Example:

– January

• BCWS = BCWP = ACWP = $100

– July

• BCWS = $150; BCWP = $145; ACWP = $150

• Cumulative CPI, SPI:

– CPI = BCWP / ACWP = $145 / 150 = 0.97

– SPI = BCWP / BCWS = $145 / 150 = 0.97

– Looks good!

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 113

Baseline Analysis - Example

• Performance Data since Rebaseline

– Jan to Jul BCWS = $150 – $100 = $50

– Jan to Jul BCWP = $145 – $100 = $45

– Jan to Jul ACWP = $150 – $100 = $50

• CPI, SPI since Rebaseline

– CPI = BCWP / ACWP = $45 / 50 = 0.9

– SPI = BCWP / BCWS = $45 / 50 = 0.9

– Not so good!

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 114

• EVM Center Contractor EVMS confidence rating– Corrective Action Requests (CAR Levels 1-4)

– EVM System maturity levels

Primary Trip Wires

• Integrated Baseline Review (IBR)– Initial review conducted within 180 days

– Ongoing reviews triggered by Mods and/or OTBs

– Outcome of the review•Cost

•Schedule

•Technical Baseline Risk•Resources

•Processes

Earned Value and the Acquisition Program, Roberta Tomasini, DAU, 2008,

http://www.dau.mil/conferences/presentations/2006_peo_syscom/tue/a6-kester.pdf.

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 115

• Baseline Execution Index (BEI) – IMS– Cum index less than 0.95

• Schedule Performance Index (SPI) – CPR– Cum index less than 0.95

• Critical Path Length Index (CPLI) – IMS– Cum index less than 0.95

• Cost Performance Index (CPI) – CPR– Cum index less than 0.95

• To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) – CPR– CPI to TCPI delta of 10%

• Contract Modifications– Contract Mods to Original Base value of 10%

• PMB Revisions – CPR, CFSR– Changes to Monthly Time-Phased PMB value of 5%

Secondary Trip Wire Metrics

Earned Value and the Acquisition Program, Roberta Tomasini, DAU, 2008,

http://www.dau.mil/conferences/presentations/2006_peo_syscom/tue/a6-kester.pdf.

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 116

Earned Value and the IMS

• EVMS should be tied to the Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) in some fashion– Same WBS

– BCWS developed/updated using task information captured in IMS

– Sometimes BCWP % complete derived from IMS

• EVMS SV in terms of $ and %, not time– Treat EVMS SV as an indicator/warning

– True schedule analysis on IMS is best way to assess schedule status

– Earned Schedule analysis used to provide additional understanding of IMS issues

AKA Master

Schedule

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 117

Master Program Schedule1.0

1.1 1.2 1.8

1.8.31.8.21.8.1 1.8.4

1.8.3.21.8.3.1 1.8.3.3

CA #1

CA #2

CA #3

ControlAccounts

WBS 1.1 ---WBS 1.2 ---WBS 1.3 ---WBS 1.4 ---

WBS 1.8 ---

1996-98 1999-01 2002-04

WBS 1.8.3.1WBS 1.8.3.2WBS 1.8.3.3WBS 1.8.3.4---------------

2002

Intermediate Schedule

WBS 1.8.3

2003 2004

WBSLevel 1

WBSLevel 2

WBSLevel 3

WBSLevel 4

x.2 ax.2 bx.2 cx.2 dPlanning Pkgsx.2 ppx. 2pp

1.8.3.1.2

Work Packages

Control Account #2 Schedule

FJ M A M J J A S O N D

Schedules and work plans are developed based on summary level constraints

and contractual milestones

IMS/EVM Integration via WBS

NEW!

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 118

Earned Value and the IMS

• Compare SV to IMS task Schedule Delay– If task on critical path, SV corresponds to time

delay

– If task not on critical path, SV may not correspond to time delay, unless SV causes task to become critical

– Calculate Slip using EV data:

Slip(mths) = Cum SV / Avg 3-mth Cur BCWS • Translate into weeks (*4.3), workdays (*22), or calendar

days (*30)

• Variations on BCWS (ITD Avg, 6-mth Avg, Current)

• As average BCWS approaches 0 (near end of project), Slip rises exponentially – does not reflect reality

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 119

Earned Value and the IMS

• EV and IMS are never completely in

sync

– Differences could be due to different

analytics

– Don’t get hung up on numbers, but focus

on qualitative inconsistencies

– Sort out & explain inconsistencies

– Recommend policy/procedure changes if

needed

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 120

Critical Path (CP) vs. Non-CP SVs

Time now

SV causes task to

extend beyond

projected end date

Schedule delay

Pushes out this task

Pushes out this task

Schedule delay

at complete

Critical Path

9

Time now

SV causes task to

extend beyond

projected end date

Schedule delay

Pushes out this task

Pushes out this task

Critical Path

Tasks 5, 6, 7

Schedule delay at

complete for this task,

but still before CP end

date, so no schedule

delay for program

Non Critical Path

Tasks 1, 2, 3, 4

SV

on

CP

= D

ela

yS

V n

ot

on

CP

<>

De

lay

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 121

Analysis of Past Performance -

Earned Schedule (ES)• Analysis of schedule performance using EVM is

limited– Measures schedule performance in cost, not in units of time

– SV always returns to zero, even if the project is behind schedule in terms of time

• Earned Schedule (ES) - new analytical technique – Stems from EVM and uses same data

– Bridge between EVM and integrated schedule analysis

– Provides a schedule metric in terms of time, not cost

• The PMI EVM Practice Standard includes information on ES, but notes it is an emerging practice– Use with caution

• www.earnedschedule.com provides a consolidated forum for ES information and resources

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 122

Analysis of Past Performance –

SV(t) and SPI(t)• Note: ES metrics developed under PMI and therefore

use the PMI earned value terms of PV (aka BCWS) and EV (aka BCWP).

• ES calculated by comparing the PV to the EV for completed work and adding the fraction of the incomplete PV work– EScum = C + I where:

C = number of whole time increments of the PMB for which EV ≥ PV

I = (EV – PVC) / (PVC+1 – PVC)

• As work progresses, ES provides a SV(t) and SPI (t) metric to measure schedule performance in terms of time– SV(t) = ES – Actual Time (AT)

– SPI(t) = ES / AT

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 123

Analysis of Past Performance –

SV($) vs. SV(t)

• Graphical Comparison of EVM’s SV and

ES’s SV:SV(t) vs SV($)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Time

$

PV EV

Time Now

PVcum

EVcum

SV(t)Behind schedule in time terms

ES AT

SV($)Behind schedule

in monetary terms

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 124

EVM/RM Integration

• EVM is focused on integration of

technical, schedule, and cost

• Risk management is focused on

planning, tracking, handling, and

reporting risks

“Integrating EVM with RM A Statistical Analysis of Survey Results,” Alissa Kumley, Peter Braxton, Richard

Coleman, Wayne Abba, Gay Infanti, John Driessnack, SCEA/ISPA, 2005.

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 125

EVM/RM Integration Key Findings• Training

– Training will help to overcome • Barriers associated with process immaturity and lack of knowledge/skills needed to integrate

• Improper EVM usage (perception that it is a financial tool)

– Training is needed to improve understanding of benefits of integrating EVM and RM

– Should reside in PM curriculum

– Should include techniques and tools for achieving process integration

• Policy – Policy changes & implementation guidance will help remove integration barriers

• Lack of management commitment

• Internal/external culture

• Emotional

• Process– Major barrier to process integration is organizational

– Overcoming these boundaries is necessary for integrations success

– NDIA PMSC should partner with other communities to create demand for process integration through cross-functional cooperation

“Integrating EVM with RM A Statistical Analysis of Survey Results,” Alissa Kumley, Peter Braxton, Richard Coleman, Wayne Abba, Gay Infanti,

John Driessnack, SCEA/ISPA, 2005

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 126

Advanced EACs

• Other EAC calculations

– ACWP + BCWR

• May be acceptable for LOE only

– ACWP + BCWR/(0.8CPI + 0.2SPI)

• Use towards end of contract

• Variation – use X% CPI and Y% SPI provided X+Y=100%

and can justify reason behind X, Y selection

– Variations on CPI Forecast (BAC/CPI):

• 3 month CPI

• 6 month CPI

• Current month CPI (very volatile)

– Perform linear regression using ACWP vs. BCWP 8

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 127

Progress-Based EACs

• EACs are notoriously difficult to predict

• Significant improvement in EAC prediction

can be achieved if there is a reliable

unbiased indicator of progress

– If the progress indicator is sufficiently granular,

unbiased EACs with standard errors of as little

as 10% can be achieved by the 20% progress

point and better SEEs are achievable at greater

progress

“Progress-based EAC calculations: Ending the EAC Tail Chase: An Unbiased EAC Predictor using Progress

Metrics,” Eric R. Druker, Richard L. Coleman, Elizabeth L. Boyadjis, Jeffrey R. Jaekle, SCEA, 2007

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 128

Rules of Thumb – Cost

• Cum CPI usually stable once project is 15-

20% complete

• Cum CPI will not change more than 10% from

the value at the 20% complete point in time

• Percent overrun at completion will not be less

than percent overrun at 15% complete

• Statistically, subcontracts will overrun more,

in percent, than the prime contract

These are generally believed to

be true but may conflict with real-

world examples

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 129

Rules of Thumb – Schedule

• Cum SPI usually stable once project is 15-20% complete

• Early SVs typically lead to CVs later – Managers tend to respond to schedule delays by applying more resources and overtime

• SV is self-healing:– As % complete approaches 100%, SV approaches 0

– Once % complete > 80%, place less emphasis on SV

• Programs relying heavily on software are typically further behind than non-software-intensive programs

These are generally believed to

be true but may conflict with real-

world examples

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 130

Earned Value Tools

• Tools Overview

• EVMS Tools

• EV Analysis

Tools

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 131

Tools Overview

• Two types of tools:

– Tools for implementing EVMS and

tracking/reporting earned value

– Tools for analyzing earned value data

• For more information on tools not

discussed in this presentation, see https://acc.dau.mil/CommunityBrowser.aspx?id=17609

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 132

EVMS Tools

• Tools for implementing EVMS– Artemis Views

Artemis Management Systemshttp://www.aisc.com

– Dekker TRAKKERDekker Ltd.http://www.dekkerltd.com/

– Deltek

• Deltek Cobra

– http://www.deltek.com/products/ipm/cobra.aspx

• Deltek MicroFrame Project Manager (MPM)http://www.deltek.com/products/ipm/mpm.aspx

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 133

EVMS Tools – Artemis Views

• “Artemis Views the industry leading enterprise

project and resource management solution

delivers enhanced project management

capability through a single, synchronized

product suite. With Earned Value

Management, organizations can manage and

control all cost related project and program

information on an enterprise level by using

familiar cost planning tools from a single,

graphical Windows-based application.”

– More information available on the Web

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 134

EVMS Tools – Dekker TRAKKER®

• “Dekker TRAKKER® is the enterprise project management (EPM) engine that drives the Dekker PMIS™. TRAKKER comes equipped to manage cost, schedule, resource, performance and financial information, and can integrate with any existing software and servers you might already use, such as Microsoft® Project, Office or SQL Server. An earned value component is available for users who control their efforts via earned value management (EVM).” – More information available on the Web

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 135

EVMS Tools – Deltek CobraTM

• Deltek Cobra is an easy-to-use, powerful system for managing project costs, measuring earned value and analyzing budgets, actuals and forecasts. Complete with an intuitive interface, helpful wizards and government compliance reporting, Deltek Cobra helps businesses comply with rigorous government standards such as:

– American National Standards Institute / Electronics Industry Alliance 748 for Earned Value Management Systems (ANSI 748)

– Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular No. A-11 Exhibit 300 and 53

– Cost/Scheduling Status Report/Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement (C/SSR DFARS) clauses

– Earned Value Management Implementation Guide (EVMIG) of the Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA)

– NASA Interim Directive to NPR 7120.5C, NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements

– Australian Department of Defense 5655

• More information available on the Web

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 136

EVMS Tools – Deltek MPMTM

• Deltek MPM is a program-based earned value measurement

solution that is both easy to install and use. Used by hundreds of

organizations—including 8 of the top 10 aerospace and defense

contractors—Deltek's EVM software is compliant with ANSI/EIA-748

and supports critical programs for Department of Defense,

Department of Energy, NASA and Department of Transportation.

With MPM, you can:

– Identify trends early and adjust tactics to meet diverse program challenges

– Plan, track and analyze projects effectively throughout the entire program

lifecycle

– Enable cross-project analysis with MPM's comprehensive data warehouse

– Enhance pricing, planning and "what if" analysis with powerful utilities

– Improve managers' visibility with real-time project analysis

– Take advantage of more than 80 standard, government and compliance

reporting templates

– Support better decision making and increase customer satisfaction

• More information available on the Web

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 137

EV Analysis Tools

• Tools for analyzing Earned Value

– wInsight

Deltek, Inc.

http://www.deltek.com/products/ipm/winsi

ght.aspx

– Dekker iPursuit

Dekker Ltd.

http://www.dekkerltd.com/ipursuit.aspx

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 138

EV Analysis Tools – wInsight

• “Deltek wInsight™ is the de facto standard for analyzing, sharing, and reporting earned value management data. wInsight's standard set of reports provide early warning indicators to quickly identify variances in project performance, enabling organizations to proactively identify potential problems before they occur. wInsight is designed to give an easy to understand, program-level view to technical, schedule and financial professionals.”– More information available on the Web

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 139

wInsight: Stoplight Table

WBS Description % Cmp BCWS BCWP ACWP SV SV CV CV BAC LRE VAC VAC CPI SPI TCPI-LRE CPI Fcst CPI*SPI Fcst

1 0 Project Level 76.8 32,548 31,969 34,381 -579 h -2,411 h 41,639 41,639 0 h 0.930 0.982 1.332 44780 44968

2 75.3 28,362 28,014 30,429 -348 h -2,415 h 37,215 37,489 -274 i 0.921 0.988 1.303 40422 40546

3 A PROGRAM MANAGEM 91.9 1,760 1,760 1,742 0 n 19 h 1,915 1,748 168 h 1.011 1.000 24.763 1895 1895

4 AC SUBCONTRACTORS 57.5 10,986 10,986 10,984 0 n 2 i 19,111 16,073 3,038 i 1.000 1.000 1.596 19107 19107

5 B System Engineer 91.5 1,507 1,493 1,196 -14 i 297 h 1,631 1,226 405 n 1.248 0.991 4.677 1307 1308

6 C Software Engine 98.9 7,959 7,872 8,677 -87 h -805 n 7,959 9,895 -1,936 n 0.907 0.989 0.072 8773 8774

7 D HARDWARE ENGINE 100.0 367 393 313 26 h 80 h 393 313 80 n 1.255 1.072 0.000 313 313

8 E Integration & T 88.1 3,232 3,028 4,943 -204 h -1,916 i 3,438 5,638 -2,200 n 0.612 0.937 0.591 5613 5658

9 F ILS IPT 84.4 443 374 493 -69 h -120 n 443 507 -65 n 0.757 0.844 4.921 584 601

10 G Hardware Fabric 90.7 2,108 2,108 2,081 0 n 28 h 2,325 2,089 236 n 1.013 1.000 26.530 2294 2294

11 [PMB] PERF MEASURE BL 76.8 32,548 31,969 34,381 -579 h -2,411 h 41,639 41,639 0 h 0.930 0.982 1.332 44780 44968

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 140

wInsight: Future Baseline Tracking

BCWS Comparison

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09

Fu

ture

Pla

n (

BC

WS

)

Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 141

wInsight: ACWP Chart

WBS Description % Cmp ACWP BAC LRE ACWP-BAC ACWP-LRE BCWP CV VAC CPI Fcst CPI*SPI Fcst

1 CLIN002ND 96.24 4,511.1 3,447.4 4,066.0 1063.7 445.1 3,317.8 i n 4,687.3 4,687.3

2 K 96.84 7,959.9 7,775.5 7,893.7 184.4 66.2 7,529.9 n n 8,219.5 8,219.1

3 CLIN001AH 98.23 13,952.0 13,909.4 13,909.9 42.6 42.1 13,663.8 h n 14,202.8 14,202.6

4 UM 99.27 1,953.8 1,916.0 1,916.0 37.8 37.8 1,902.0 i n 1,968.2 1,968.2

5 F 99.80 1,929.6 1,927.0 1,927.0 2.6 2.6 1,923.2 n n 1,933.4 1,933.4

6 C 99.88 24,577.9 24,181.9 24,181.9 396.0 396.0 24,153.8 n n 24,606.5 24,606.5

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 142

wInsight: TCPI Chart

WBS DESCRIPTION %Cmp CPI TCPI-LRE CPI - TCPI CV CV BAC LRE VAC VAC SV SV CPI Fcst CPI*SPI Fcst

1 AC SUBCONTRACTORS 57.49 1.000 1.596 -0.596 2.3 i 19,111.1 16,073.2 3,037.9 i 0.0 n 19,107.1 19,107.1

2 PMB PERF MEASURE BL 76.78 0.930 1.332 -0.402 -2411.4 h 41,638.8 41,638.8 0.0 h -578.5 h 44,779.6 44,967.7

3 F ILS IPT 84.43 0.757 4.921 -4.164 -119.7 n 442.6 507.4 -64.8 n -68.9 h 584.4 601.1

4 COM COST OF MONEY 89.38 1.231 3.684 -2.453 42.1 h 250.9 189.4 61.5 h -18.3 h 203.8 205.6

5 G&A GEN & ADMIN 89.40 0.990 2.319 -1.329 -39.0 h 4,173.3 3,960.6 212.7 h -212.1 h 4,217.0 4,242.4

6 G Hardware Fabric 90.70 1.013 26.530 -25.517 27.8 h 2,324.5 2,088.7 235.8 n 0.0 n 2,293.9 2,293.9

7 B System Engineer 91.54 1.248 4.677 -3.429 296.8 h 1,631.2 1,225.9 405.3 n -13.8 i 1,307.0 1,308.0

8 A PROGRAM MANAGEM 91.91 1.011 24.763 -23.752 18.8 h 1,915.4 1,747.8 167.6 h 0.0 n 1,894.9 1,894.9

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017

© 2002-2013 ICEAA. All rights reserved.

v1.2

Unit V - Module 15 143

EV Analysis Tools – iPursuit™

• “Dekker iPursuit® is a robust portfolio project management (PPM) analysis tool that can be used on a single project to monitor performance and ensure success, or that can be used to analyze an entire enterprise by linking to different, operational databases to establish the guidelines used for effective PPM. An optional earned value management (EVM) component is also available and can be used to easily extrapolate earned value information directly from Microsoft® Project.” – More information available on the Web

Presented at the 2017 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017