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The Greenery –a journal of Environment and Biodiversity 7(1) September 2009 Jha

Climate Change Induced Potential Impacts (eco‐physiological) on Insect‐Pests in Nepalese Forests: A Synopsis for Future Research and Management

Bidya Nath Jha

Asst. Research Officer, Department of Forest Research and Survey, GPO 3339, Kathmandu, Nepal.

Research Student, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.

Email: [email protected]; [email protected]

Abstract:

This study aims at reviewing the available literatures on the eco‐physiological impacts of climate change on forest insect‐pests and its hosts. Methodology adopted for preparing the paper is the critical review of literatures available in Copenhagen University’s Life library databases. Withstanding with the global projections of climate change, Nepal will experience a noticeable rise in temperature and changed rainfall pattern throughout the country in years to come. These changes can create mixed eco‐physiological impacts over the insect‐pests of Nepalese Forests. In the light of statistics on prevailing climate, projected climatic conditions and forest trees and associated insect‐pests in Nepal; the insect‐pests’ invasion seems to be obvious than before. Altered climatic trends invite conditions like expansion of natural range by forest insect‐pests adapting to new environment. Insect‐pests can also switch their host by turning themselves polyphagous to meet the nutritional requirement in new climatic conditions. Besides, advancing their physiological and phenological processes and reducing the vulnerability of being predated are other potential impacts that can happen to insect plant interaction in the future climatic scenarios. These changes in turn are expected to hinder the vital forestry functions through pest damage including carbon dioxide sequestration capacity of forests in Nepal.

Key Words: Climate change, eco‐physiological impacts, range extension, phenology, insects‐pests, diapause, Nepal, morphogenesis

BACKGROUND:

Insects‐pests are one of the major ecological components of forest ecosystem but their contributions and ecological roles in global change and forestry have often been overlooked and neglected. The contribution and ecological processes associated with forest insect‐pests are both positive and negative for the forest ecosystem. To illustrate, these groups contribute to the natural regeneration of plant through its remarkable role in pollination. On the other hand, they are also responsible for commercial loss through tissue damage of woody component of forests and significant reduction of forest’s natural capacity to fix the atmospheric carbon dioxide in multiple ways. Many studies from different part of the world suggest that in subarctic, boreal and temperate forests the average consumption form insect herbivory ranges from 1‐10% of foliage of dominant tree species. In specific case of temperate broadleaved forests, for example, an average of 7.1% of damage is reported by forest insect‐pests (Coley and Barone, 1996).

History of extreme outbreaks of the insect‐pests in different forest types of the world in last century have compelled the scientists to study the associated link between climate change and outbreak events in the course of time. Due to sharp variations in altitude from South to North, Nepal offers luxurious microclimatic gradients to different genera and species of forest insects‐pests in Nepal. Thapa (1997) has enumerated approximately over five thousands of insect species from Nepal. A larger number of forest pests are reported to damage both natural and plantation forest of Nepal. Although numerous published and unpublished literatures exists about the incidental outbreaks of forest pest epidemics in Nepal and outside in recent years (Jackson, 1987; FAO, 2003; Jakob et al., 2007; FAO, 2007; FAO, 2009), its’ link with climatic variables and statistics on the damage assessments are lacking in Nepal. Another group of studies of recent decades on plat‐pests interactions (Coley

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mailto:[email protected]


and Barone, 1996; FAO, 2007; FAO, 2009) mostly conclude that damages of woody plants by these organisms are going to increase with altered temperature and precipitation regimes in years to come.

Therefore, this study aims at evaluating the available studies on the climate change impacts on forest insects‐pests’ eco‐physiology. The intention is to elaborate a research and management dimension in plant and insects‐pests interaction which Nepalese forests may face in different climatic predictions for the future. This paper is based on the assumptions that scientific study of climate change impacts over forest insect‐pests’ eco‐physiology on the other part of the globe can also be generalized in Nepalese conditions with some case specific exceptions. Nonetheless, majority of review is based on the studies conducted in similar conditions throughout the world rather than being confined to Nepalese forests. One of the many bases for adopting this approach for the study is the revelation that Nepal’s climatic trends are not surprisingly dissimilar to rest of the world especially Northern Hemisphere (Shrestha et al.,1999).

METHODOLOGY:

This review is based on the desk study of different literatures from secondary, published and unpublished sources available either in print or digital media into the LIFE library databases of Copenhagen University, Denmark. The first step was to establish different search parameters for the literature hunt with coined study objectives for the writing. The search parameters or terms were exclusively applied into the different LIFE library database system for finding out the available resources (Annex 1). Out of the massive hits found, selected number of relevant literatures especially international journal articles, books and research papers were scrutinized and ranked for the review purpose. Objective oriented classification of literatures was performed and ultimate review sources were achieved. Priority for the review was given for those articles or research papers which were appearing relatively recent, studied from the primary sources of information and the study area was Nepal or the vicinity or from similar conditions. Consultations from the lecturers (2), library staffs (3) and graduate scholars (2 Ph D; and 5 M.Sc.) were other sources of information for further literature and information for the review.

RESULT AND DISCUSSION:

Past and projected climate Trends in Nepal:

An intensive analysis of maximum number of meteorological data of years between 1971 and 1994 (collected from 49 numbers of meteorological stations from mid hills and mountains and 14 number of stations from Terai and Siwaliks) reveals that the much discussed climate change (especially increase in temperature) is taking place in more than anticipated rate in the case of Nepal (Shrestha et al., 1999). The rate of temperature increase per year were found to be 0.06 0 C to 0.12 0 C in case of mid hills and mountain and 0.03 0 C for the case of lowland Nepal (Shrestha et al., 1999). The temperature differences are higher and pronounced in the dry winter spell than the monsoon and pre monsoon records. Before the year 1978, temperatures of the five development regions, national average and individual stations were mostly constant or decreasing, however, after 1978 the general trend for all regional, national and stations temperature were found increasing. This study also found that the seasonal and spatial distribution of warming trends in Nepal has also a considerable bearing upon the monsoon circulation of the country (Shrestha et al., 1999; Shrestha et al., 2000). Moreover, the relatively long temperature records of Kathmandu Valley (since 1921) demonstrated the same pattern of warming trends as observed in Northern Hemisphere by different studies, which in turn indicates that there exists relationship between global climate change to Nepal’s warming trend (Shrestha et al., 1999). Temperature trend analysis for South Asia (IPCC, 2007), which also bears an indirect implication for Nepal’s temperature trend, has been reproduced in Figure 2.

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Table 1: Temperature Trend of Nepal (Positive Numbers for Increasing trend and negative numbers for decreasing trends)

Mean Temperature Trend in Nepal by Regions 1977‐1994 (0 C)(Shresta et al., 1999)

Winter (Dec‐Feb)

Pre Monsoon (Mar‐May)

Monsoon (Jun‐Sep)

Post Monsoon (Oct‐Nov)

Annual (Jan‐Dec)

Trans Himalayas 0.124 0.005 0.109 0.099 0.09

Himalayas 0.09 0.05 0.062 0.075 0.057

Middle Mountain 0.059 0.05 0.055 0.094 0.75

Siwalik 0.015 0.01 0.021 0.077 0.041

Terai 0.006 ‐0.004 0.014 0.069 0.041

Nepal 0.061 0.032 0.051 0.081 0.059

Temperature variations in table 1 have also been supported by other studies in Nepal and in the vicinity. Sano et al. (2005), for instance, has found that winter temperature has been significantly increasing in western Nepal since last 400 years based on his dendrochronological analysis of Abies spectabilis tree rings. Similarly Liu and Chen (2000) also fortified the above trends with their respective studies into the Tibetan Plateau (other side of Himalayas) from the analysis of climatic records of more than four decades.

Figure 1: Temperature Trend (Annual Mean Maximum) in Nepal (Shrestha et al 1999, in WWF, 2005)

Based on the historical changes in global climate, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made scientific predictions for the climatic anomalies under different emission (Low and High) conditions and time horizons (base years long term: 2080; medium term: 2050 and short term: 2020) for global geographical areas on the earth (IPCC, 2007). Although IPCC report (IPCC, 2007) have not included climatic prediction exclusively on Nepal, but predictions for the country has been made into the broader framework of South Asian region. Also, this report includes the vulnerability analysis on South Asian level for the climate change impact on different areas. Biodiversity has been identified as one of the most vulnerable sector with ‐2 vulnerability score and with very high confidence level for prediction to be impacted by these predicted climatic anomalies.

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Table 2: Predicted variation in precipitation for South Asea

Predicted Change in Precipitation(%) for South Asia (IPCC, 2007)

Short Term (2020) Medium Term (2050) Long Term (2080)

Period of the year

Low Emmission

High Emmission

Low Emmission

High Emmission

Low Emmission

High Emmission

December‐February

4 ‐3 0 0 ‐6 ‐16

March‐May 8 7 24 26 20 31

June‐August 7 5 11 13 15 26

September‐November

3 1 6 8 10 26

Figure 2: Predicted Variation in Temperature for South Asia

In addition to IPCC projection, Nepal specific predictions have also been made recently through adopting a number of climate prediction models (Agrawala et al., 2003). The brief, the result for the projection of temperature and precipitations have been reproduced in table 3:

Table 3: Predicted variations in Temperature and Precipitation in Nepal

Predicted Change in Climatic Variables for Nepal (Agrawala et al., 2003)

Temperature (0 C ) Precipitation (%)

Year Annual Dec‐Feb Jun‐Aug Annual Dec‐Feb Jun‐Aug

2030 1.2 1.3 1.1 5 0.8 9.1

2050 1.7 1.8 1.6 7.3 1.2 13.1

2100 3.2 3.2 2.9 12.6 2.1 22.9

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Climate Change Impacts on Forest Insect‐Pests

As with the other biological organism, the life cycle of forest insect‐pests are highly dependent on the climatic conditions of a particular locality, with well defined threshold levels of survival or maximal growth and development. Numerous studies (Beeson, 1941; Nair, 2007; Evans, 2008) describe the critical climatic variables which have deterministic role in the survival and growth of forest insect‐pests with respect to its stages of life cycle. In brief, most of the studies so far conducted, have agreed that the expected climatic changes are going to promote the life cycle, growth and development of the majority of forest insect ‐pests in general. With special reference to Nepal conditions, following are some of the most visible potential impacts that climate change may cause on the forest insect‐pests and the respective hosts (Nair, 2007; Evans, 2008):

Range extension of Forest Insects‐Pests:

The most pronounced impact of increased temperature over the insect‐pests is their migration towards the northern forest habitats. Although climate change impacts on forest insects and their migration pattern has not been studied in Nepal, there are number of international examples which can be used to simulate the forest conditions in Nepal. For instance, a survey conducted by Permesan and Yohe (2003) on the insect reciprocation of climate change concluded that among the surveyed species 80% of the surveyed species sifted their natural range towards the north‐ with an average rate of 6 km in 10 years. Similarly, Evans (2008) presented the specific case of Pine processionary moth’s (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) northward journey from periphery of Orleans to as north as Fontainbleau in France. It shifted its natural range of occurrence by 87km since 1972 to 2004, with accelerated rate of travel in last ten years (56km). Using the historical data of 100 years, Jepsen et al. (2008) have recently documented how two species of forest insect ‐pests, viz. Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata shifted their range in last two decades in sub‐arctic birch forest of Norway. These studies coincide on a conclusion that the changes in global climate have promoted forest insect ‐pests to expand their range towards the direction of the higher altitudes and latitudes. Importance of the knowledge from these studies in Northern Hemisphere could be related to Nepalese contexts because of Nepal’s similarity in climatic change trends with Northern Hemisphere (Shrestha et al., 1999).

Range Jump and Accommodation:

Range jump is another sort of phenomenon associated with forest insect‐pests in the advent of climate change. Forest/plant product trades are one of the main causes among others that carry the high risk of ‘range jump’ or ‘accommodation’ of non native species into the Nepalese forest areas. There are numerous examples where seeds are imported for the plantation activities in Nepal e.g. Eucaplytus specie and Leucaena species from Australia, Cryptomeria species from Japan and many more from India including Tectona grandis, Dalbergia Sissoo and Acacia catechu (Jackson, 1987). In new climatic conditions in the future, there will be no wonder if the Asian long horn beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis), (many broadleaved based) which is native to the regions of Japan, China and Korea and has already found in US and Canada through trade (Bond, 2008; FAO, 2009), or other similar destructive pests, will be brought to Nepal through plant product transactions (especially seeds) from other region or countries.

Impact on Insects‐Pests Phenology:

Climate change conditions may impact to advance some of the phenological and life cycle processes in forest insect‐pests. Permesan and Yohe (2003) found in their study that about 87% of inventoried insect species showed advancement in certain phonological processes like flowering or spring migration due to the past change in the climate. Number of eggs per generation laid by Hoplocerambyx spinicornis (a serious threat to Shorea robusta trees in Nepal) ranges 100‐300 and viability of the eggs ranges between 75% and 100% depending on temperature and moisture conditions (Beeson, 1941; Nair, 2007). Warming induced conditions can create favourable microclimatic conditions to realize this destructive pests’ higher range of viability (i.e. 100%) in Nepal. Besides, the larval phase which is responsible for main damage in the wood and remains for 6‐10 months can be prolonged if temperature conditions are favours in the future.

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Climate change is also going to impact the relationship of forest‐pests with its natural enemies through reducing the risky stages of being predated, e.g. larva and pupation, through the enhanced speed of life cycle. Relative warming in winter (as predicted) advances the early stages (winter dormancy; eggs and transition between dormancy and active stage) and therefore reduces the chances of being predated (Bernays, 1997; Evans, 2008).

Developing host generality over the host specificity in Forest Pests:

There are a number of forest insects in Nepal which shows the characteristics feature of depending on only one host tree species e.g. Hoplocerambyx spinicornis (Sal Borer). However, due to reduced nutritional value (especially Nitrogen compounds) of tree leaves in response to elevated temperature and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the probability of a specific pest to switching its host, i.e. turning from monophagous to polyphagous, becomes higher (Battisti, 2008; Hunt et al., 2006)

Impacts on Insects‐Pests Physiology:

Global warming can impact the reproductive, survival, growth and development potential of forest pests. The rise of temperature may significantly enhance the reproductive capacity in forest pests by advancing their life cycle activities and shortening the gap between each stage. Yamamura and Kiritani (1998) mentions that a rise of 20C temperature (which is predicted for Nepal for next 50 years) may give rise of one to five additional pest generations per year, and in case of different species of aphids, the rate becomes higher. A number of forest tree species have already been reported to be damaged by different species of aphids in Nepal e.g. Alnus nepalensis, Picea smithiana and Acer Oblongum (Jackson, 1987).

Winter mortality in insect‐pests is common phenomena because of the low temperature. Reduction in winter cold is removing the major control factor of insect‐pests in altitudinal and latitudinal temperate region (Harrington et al., 2008). Many high altitude (above 2000m) forest pests based on Willow, Birch, Ash, Spruce and other high altitude coniferous and broadleaved species of Himalayas shows this remarkable dormancy period between December to Mid March (Beeson, 1941; Nair, 2007). Impact of increased winter temperature on green spruce aphid (Elatobium abietinum) population have been studied with most recent data set of 41 years in South England (Westgarth‐Smith et al., 2007).This study found that if the winter temperature is going to increase by 2‐30C, which also is the predicted rise in temperature for next 50‐100 years in Nepal (Shrestha et al, 1999), the aphid may realize its biotic potential of reproduction and cause spruce epidemics in that area in years to come. The Forest Research (2008) of UK Forestry Commission point out that in case of an outbreak of spruce aphid, the growth of invaded tree may reduce upto 30% in a year, and in case of realized biotic potential, the damage may yield more than being expected.

Many of insects‐pests, especially from middle to higher altitudes and latitudes, have a pronounced characteristic of suspending their metabolic activities temporarily during their life cycles due to a process being known as diapause. The stage is further characterized by decreased level of morphogenesis, increased level of environmental resistance, and reduced consumption of plant material by the pests (Tauber et al., 1986). Climate change (raised temperature) may act as external environmental stimulation for breaking the diapause stage in forest insect‐pests in advance and activate their physiological processes so that more consumption of plant tissue becomes obvious (Battisti, 2008).

Impacts on Hosts

The availability of extra level of atmospheric carbon dioxide due to climate change enhances the foliar growth in trees which further imbalances the natural carbon nitrogen (C/N) ratio. An experimentation on Impact of endemic insect herbivory on structure and productivity of vegetation in Northern Europe found that plant grown in elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration have lower nitrogen concentrations and higher concentration of non structural carbohydrates (Kozlov, 2009). This change induced nitrogen deficiency and imbalances in other nutritional value of the forest vegetation become insufficient to meet the metabolic requirement of phytophagous insects (pests) qualitatively. This in turn forced them to consume more quantities of vegetative materials to fulfil their nutritional demand to compensate reduced food quality (Ayres and Lombardero, 2000; Kozlov, 2009; Battisti, 2008;).

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The climate change induced drought is reported to develop a kind of stress gradient, and decline in the stomatal conductance of the forest trees which make them more prone to the insect‐pests attack (Scarr, 1998). Sal (Shorea robusta) trees, for example, have been found to be more attacked on the nutrient (including water) poor sites e.g. ridges and sandy soils than on ambient conditions by Sal borer (Hoplocerambyx spinicornis) (Jackson, 1987; Nair, 2007). In the condition of summer drought, which is a predicted condition in Nepal; many Ips species (64 worldwide) (FAO,2009), the pine bark beetles, are expected to invade the coniferous plantations in the subtropical to lower temperate regions of Nepal. Khote Salla (Pinus roxburghii) forest are highly susceptible to increased damage by this kind of beetle mostly because it has most of its area under high prone zone for summer drought as predicted by above mentioned sources in Nepal.

CONCLUSION:

Climate change is occurring in an alarming rate and at an extent that researchers used to anticipate for Nepal. It has variety of direct and indirect bearings over the abiotic and biotic systems of Nepal. Higher climatic variations and the resultant forest types of Nepal offer home for a vast number of forest insect‐pests. These tiny creatures have often not been given due attention by the researches despite the fact that damages caused by these organisms are significant and increasing. Forest based insect‐pests and its extent, magnitude and frequency of damages and it’s relation with climatic variations need to be assessed scientifically before any serious damage is caused in forests of Nepal. Prediction for temperature rise and altered precipitation pattern in Nepal should be taken as one of the potential threats for the commercial objectives of forestry in Nepal. Host changing and realization of biotic potential by destructive forest pests may give rise to serious economic and ecological threat in multiple ways in Nepalese forestry.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

My special thanks go to the Professor Niels Strange for encouraging me for this writing. The supportive hands of LIFE library staffs for searching and availing the required articles in print are also highly acknowledged. I am also humbly thankful to SHEAC Team and the president for providing me the opportunity to publish in the reputed ‘Greenery’.

REFERENCES

Agrawala, S.; Raksakulthai, V.; Aalst, M.V., Larsen, P.; Smith, J.; and Reynolds, G. 2003. Development and climate change in Nepal: Focus on water resources and hydropower. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Paris, France.

Ayres, M.P. and Lombardero, M.J. 2000. Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. Science of the Total Environment. 262:263‐286.

Battisti, A. 2008. Forests and climate change‐lessons from insects. iForest 1:1‐5 [online: Feb 28, 2008] URL: http://www.sisef.it/iforest, cited on March 5, 2009.

Bernays, E.A. 1997. Feeding by Lepidopteran larvae is dangerous. Ecological Entomology 22: 121‐123. Bond, S. 2008. Wanted: The Asian Longhorn Beetle. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) APHIS Publication.

Coley, P.D. and J.A. Barone. 1996. Herbivory and plant defences in tropical forests. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 27:305‐335.

Evans, H.2008. Increasing global trade and climate change: co‐factors increasing the international movement and establishment of forest pests URL:www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_uploead/foodclimate/presentations/diseases/Evans.pdf, cited on March 5, 2009.

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http://www.sisef.it/iforest

http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_uploead/foodclimate/presentations/diseases/Evans.pdf


FAO.2003. Global forest resources assessment update 2005. Pilot study for country reporting: India. Forest Resources Assessment Working Paper 78. Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN, Rome, Italy.

FAO. 2009. Global Review of Forest Pests and Diseases. FAO Forestry Paper 156. Forestry Department. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. Italy.

FAO. 2007. Overview of Forest Pests‐India. Forest Health and Biosecurity Working Paper No. FBS/18E. Forestry Departments. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. Italy.

Forest Research of Forestry Commission. 2008. The impact of climate change on forestry and woodland. URL: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/website/forestresearch.nsf/ByUnique/INFD‐5Y2JMR cited on March 2, 2009.

Harrington, R.; Fleming, R.A., Woiwod, I.P. 2001. Climate Change impacts on insect management and conservation in temperate regions: can they be predicted? Agricultural and Forest Entomology 3: 233‐240

Hunt, S.; Newman, J.; Otis, G. 2006.Threats and impacts of exotic pests under climate change: implications for Canada’s forest ecosystems and carbon stock. A BIOCAP Research Integeration Progam Synthesis Paper. Canada.

IPCC. 2007. Climate Change2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Jackson, J.K. 1987. Manual of Afforestation for Nepal. Nepal UK Forestry Research Project, Kathmandu, Nepal.

Jacob, J.P.; Devaraj, R. and Natarajan, R. 2007. Outbreaks of invasive gall inducing wasp Leptocybe invasa on eucalyptus in India. Invasives 8:4. Newsletter of the Asia Pacific Forest Invasive Species Network (APFISN).

Jepsen, J.U.; Hagen, B.S.; Ims, R.A.; and Yoccoz, N.G. 2008.Climate change and outbreaks of the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata in subarctic birch forest: evidence of a recent outbreak range expansion. Journal of Animal Ecology 77: 257‐264.

Kozlov, M.V. 2009. Impact of global change on insect‐plant interactions.Section of Ecology, University of Turku, Finland (Unpublished Presentation cited at: www.ekoi.lt/uploads/docs/Kozlov_1.ppt on March 24, 2009)

Liu, X. and B. Chen, 2000. Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. International Journal of Climatology. 20 (14): 1729‐1742. Parmesan C, Yohe G. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37‐42

Sano, M.; Futura, F.; Kobayashi, O. ; and Sweda, T. 2005. Temperature variations since the mid‐18th century for western Nepal, as reconstructed from tree ring width and density of Abies spectabilis. Dendrochronologia 23 : 83‐92

Scarr, T. (1998). Insects and climate change. In The impacts of climate change on Ontario’s forests (ed) Colombo, S.J., and Buse, L.J. Forest Research Information Paper 143.Canada,

Shrestha, A.B., C.P. Wake, J.E. Dibb, and Mayewski, P.A. 2000. Precipitation Fluctuations in the Nepal Himalaya and Its Vicinity and Relationship with Some Large Scale Climatological Parameters. International Journal of Climatology, 20: 317‐327 Shrestha, A.B.; Wake, C.P.; Mayewski, P.A. and J.E. Dibb (1999). Maximum Temperature trends in the Himalayas and its vicinity: An analysis based on temperature records from Nepal for the period 1971‐1994. Journal of Climate Volume 12: 2776‐2786.

Tauber, M.J., Tauber, C.A., Masaki, S. (1986) Seasonal Adaptations of Insects. Oxford University Press.

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http://www.forestry.gov.uk/website/forestresearch.nsf/ByUnique/INFD-5Y2JMR

http://www.ekoi.lt/uploads/docs/Kozlov_1.ppt%20on%20March%2024


Thapa, V. K. 1997. An Inventory of Nepal’s Insects. IUCN –The World Conservation Union, Kathmandu, Nepal.

Troup, R.S. ; Joshi, H.B. 1983. The Silviculture of Indian Trees. Vol I‐IV. Controller of Publications, Delhi, India.

UNEP and UNFCCC, (2006). Climate Change Information Kit. United Nation Environmental Program and United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change.URL: www.unfcc.int/backgroundpublications.pdf; cited on March 14, 2009.

Westgarth‐Smith, A.R.; Leroy, S.A.G.; Collins, P.E.F. and Harrington, R. 2007.Temporal variations in English populations of a forest insect‐pest, the green spruce aphid (Elatobium abietinum), associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and global warming. Institute for the Environment,Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, U.K.

WWF. 2005. Glaciers, glacier retreat, and its subsequent impacts in Nepal, India and China. WWF Nepal Program, Kathmandu, Nepal.

Yamamura, K. & Kiritani, K. 1998. A simple method to estimate the potential increase in the number of generations under global warming in temperate zones. Applied Entomology and Zoology, 33: 289‐298.

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http://www.unfcc.int/backgroundpublications.pdf

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Appendix 1: The summary of database search records for different search parameters

Database/Search Location

Search terms/parameters Resulting numbers of references

Number of useful references

CAB ABSTRACTS 1. Climate change* 2. Forest Insect Pests* 3. Global Warming* 4. Joint search with 1,2 and 3 (using AND

operator) 5. Joint search with 1 , 2 and 3 (using OR

operator) 6. Carbon* Insects*Forests* 7. Forest Entomology and/or Climate Change 8. Eco‐physiology of Insects

1123 1527 2321 2576 2765 1656 1934 22

17 11 12 9 7 (overlaps) 2 1 2

AGRICOLA 1. Climate change* 2. Forest Insect Pests* 3. Global Warming* 4. Joint search with 1,2 and 3 (using AND

operator) 5. Joint search with 1 , 2 and 3 (using OR

operator) 6. Carbon* Insects*Forests* 7. Forest Entomology and/or Climate Change 8. Eco‐physiology of Insects

3467 946 2226 472 498 23 44 4

17 (overlaps) 3 0 1 3 2 5 0

CAB ABSTRACT ARCHIVE

1. Climate change forest pests* 45 7 (overlaps)

AGRIS 1. Impacts of Climate Change on Insects* 2. Forest Insects and Climate Change* 3. Base age invariant method*

392 536 6

9 9 4

Google Search (English)

1. Climate Change Impacts on Forest Pests 2. Nepal Forest Insects and Climate Change 3. India Climate Change and Forest Insects 4. World Climate change and Forest Pests

860, 000 10, 400 35,000 67,700

18 (10 pages only) 6 (10 pages only) 11 (10 pages only) 4 (10 pages only)

GOOGLE SCHOLAR 1. Climate Change in Nepal and Forest* Insects

2. Climate Change in India and Forest* Insects

4,830 26,900

14 (overlapping) 3 (10 pages only)

Personal Contact (Lecturers/Library staffs/fellow graduate students)

1. Subjective conversation Altogether they referred to 9 number of references

4 (3 overlapping)

Note: This is not exhaustive list of search history that the author has performed for literature search.

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