Lane Farrell

Professor Loser

Econ 6285

16 December 2014

Trade Development in Argentina: 1980 to Today

1. Introduction

Argentina was praised as one of the leading developing

countries in Latin America for some time, but that is no

longer the case. Argentina has a fascinating history of

economic rise and decline that led it to become one of the

most studied, paradoxical countries in the world. At the

break of the 20th century it seemed like Argentina was

destined to take a seat as one of the major power players in

the global economy, but since then the trends have reversed.

There have been periods of growth, such as the modest

commodity boom in the past decade, but the growth periods

have been short cyclical occurrences that have not changed

the business as usual trajectory towards economic

stagnation.

Argentina’s economic history can be studied through many

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different lenses; this essay will analyze trade. This paper

gives a brief country profile and background on the

political and trade climate pre-dating 1980; following this

is a detailed trade history from 1980 to the present. The

cutoff date was chosen as 1980 because there have been no

military coups since that year. This will allow for a more

fluent and comprehensive narrative.

2. Key Indicators Needed to Understand Argentina 1

Before diving into the history of Argentina’s politics

and trade it is useful to familiarize yourself with a quick

profile of the country’s data.

Name of Indicator2 Value

Capital City Buenos Aires

Currency Peso

Year of Independence 1816

1 If you have a strong background in Argentinean political economy you may want to skip this section and the following.They are meant to give the laymen reader sufficient background to understand the rest of the discussion. 2 All indicators provided are the most recent values released. No indicator dates further back then 2010.

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Population 41,450,000

Land Mass 1,074,000 miles

Unemployment Rate 7.5%

GDP per Capita $14,715

Nominal GDP3 $404,483,000,000

Public Debt (% of

GDP)

41.4

GINI Index 43.6 (49th in the

world)

Human Development

Index

.797 (45th in the

world)

Argentina was founded by Spain in the mid 1700s, and

declared its independence in the 19th century. Their

Constitution was chartered in 1853 and is still in force

today.

3. A Brief History of Argentinian Politics Before 1980

3 Refer to attachment 2 for definitions of technical economic terms and acronyms.

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Argentina has had a complicated and lengthy political

history since declaring independence in 1816. As such, I

will only highlight the major events that define its current

state in the global market. Argentina was considered a

Latin America success story through the early 20th century;

however, when the Great Depression (1929) struck it found

itself in a comparatively mild financial crisis. Its

trading partners decreased the volume of requested exports,

capital flows decreased, and the country (much like the rest

of Latin America) turned inward for growth via ISI4

policies. The period associated with the Great Depression

is often referred to as the “infamous decade” in Latin

America; it was defined by political strife and fraud. WWII

followed this decade and helped to pull Argentina out of

their economic downtown turn.

Most power transitioned peacefully before WWI, but that

changed with the first military coup in 1930. There were

five more coups before a peaceful administration transition;

the last coop happened in 1976. While the time period was 4 Refer to attachment 2 for definitions of technical economic terms and acronyms.

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an unstable one, a handful of great leaders and thinkers

came forth. One of the most notable was Juan Peron, the

leader of Argentina’s populist movement.

Juan Peron is perhaps the most well known man to come

from Argentina; his legacy thrives today. He came to power

a few years after the Great Depression with a successful

coup, and was later elected President. His administration

is well known for implementing five-year economic plans, and

his political party- Peronism or Justicialism- is still

present today. Peron was taken out of power by a civil war

in 1955. The period leading up to Peron’s next rise to

power in 1973 was overshadowed by a weak economy. After

Peron died, hyperinflation took off amidst widespread

violence and terrorist activity. The next major event in

Argentina’s political landscape was the Falklands Islands

War in 1982; the war resulted in British victory. The

implications of the war on Argentina’s trade development

will be discussed in section five.

4. A Brief History of Argentinian Trade Before 1980

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The Great Depression demolished Argentina’s open trade

model in the “infamous decade.” Their growth had been

reliant upon successful free and open trade, but the

depression almost eliminated the demand for exports with

devastating effect. The first major steps towards recovery

were taken by Juan Peron’s administration.

Peron announced his initial five-year plan in 1947.

Among many things, it worked on improving the countries

domestic infrastructure. This was a crucial action since

better infrastructure would allow for heavier, more

efficient and profitable trade flow. Improving

infrastructure was a start, but the government still held

immense control over many aspects of the economy that

restricted trade and growth. The administration went as far

as to set prices on local restaurant menus. Such overly

involved actions severely limited the country’s potential

growth and started to staunch FDI. Investors were not eager

to invest in a country that was trying to steer to the

economy with such an active hand. It is inevitable that a

government cannot do it all, and if they try to take on too

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much the country becomes easily susceptible to collapse.

Argentina grew during this time, but more slowly then the

rest of the world.

The second five-year plan was released in 1952. This

plans primary purpose was to promote growth of heavy

industry and foreign investment. It also created the IAPI

(Argentine Institute for the Promotion of Trade); their

purpose was to buy crops at a lower than international cost

to stimulate industrialization. The second plan played a

role in Argentina developing trade agreements with quite a

few countries from the EU and Brazil.

World War Two also had major effects on trade, for

instance it forced commodity prices to rise, and import

prices rose even more. Argentina saw record setting trade

surpluses during WWI and WWII in addition to having run a

trade surplus since 1900 (excluding the Great Depression).

At this point in history it looked as though Argentina was

bound for success. After the war Europe and the US were the

two largest industrial exporters. This made Latin American

industries relatively more vulnerable to external shock,

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especially those industries rooted in countries with open

trade policy. It was not much later that Argentina took up

autarquic military industrial policies that further

influenced the countries growth projections.

The 1960s is often referred to as the “Golden Era,”

but Argentina experienced moderate to slow growth. Most

scholars attribute this to the failing of ISI and the

associated inflation attacks. Argentina addressed the

problem by lowering tariffs and eliminating most other trade

barriers. Argentina’s Golden Era was funded largely by

foreign investors which made the country extremely

vulnerable to foreign external shocks.

The graph5 below depicts Argentina’s GDP per capita as

a percentage of GDP per capita in 8 other countries and the

OECD. After WWII Argentina’s relative wealth peaked;

however, the growth trend reversed into the 21st century.

5 The graph is from the Economist article, “Argentina: A Century of Decline.”

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5. Argentinian Trade Post-1980 6

5.1 Major Events and their Implications on Trade

Scholars often refer to the 1980s in Latin America as

the “lost decade.” During the 1980s Latin America faced a

staggering debt crisis; Argentina specifically saw collapse

in 1981, one year prior to setting a record deficit. Their

policy was quite loose, as they had borrowed expansive loans

over the past twenty years from international creditors. A

large potion of the borrowed money was invested in domestic

infrastructure. These actions may have gone unpunished if

the world economy had not slowed down; however, it did. As

a result the returns Argentina sowed from the new

development projects were handicapped.

6 This section will refer extensively to attachment 1 – a timeline of major events affecting Argentina from 1980 to 2013.

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Another reason for the debt crisis was a boom in oil

prices. Latin America is well endowed with petroleum

resources. During the 1970s and 1980s oil prices soared

which prompted many aggressive borrowers to borrow even

more. They thought the oil boom, or more appropriately

bubble, would lead to profits they could pay off their debt

with. Ultimately foreign debt exceeded earning power, and

many countries - including Argentina - were forced to

default on a large portion of loans. Unsurprisingly, this

damaged quite a few trading relationships.

At the time Argentina was also dealing with deep-rooted

civil unrest due to a cruel dictator, Jorge Rafael Videla.

He was charged for gross crimes against humanity; however,

before he was taken out of power his administration had

levied a hefty blow to the country’s morale. Videla was

responsible for issuing a lot of the debt before he was

arrested.

The Falklands War7 was the defining event for Argentina

in the 1980s. The war began on April 2, 1982 and lasted for

7 Sometimes called “The Dirty War.”

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ten weeks against Britain, who had been Argentina’s leading

trade partner until the war. Many people believe that

Argentina’s wealth was derived from its generous natural

resource endowment (particularly with respect to

agriculture), open markets, and Britain. As such, the war

substantially damaged their export model, and Argentina did

not have sufficient institutions in place to change their

trade policy to cope with the external shock. Shortly after

the war their inflation soared to over 900%. After defeat,

Argentina stopped trading at high volume with Britain; their

top five trading partners8 today are Brazil, China, Chile,

the United States, Germany, and Mexico.

The 1990s was the era of the Washington Consensus9 in

Latin America. Economist John Williamson coined the term

“Washington Consensus,” which refers to ten specific

economic policies that were supposed to pull crisis-wracked

developing countries back into stable territory. The US

essentially tried to force policies that worked for them

onto countries with incredibly dissimilar histories; this 8 Listed in order of greatest portion of trade to least. 9 Refer to Attachment 3 for the abridged list of policies.

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led many Latin American countries to become suspicious and

resentful towards the US, and especially the IMF and World

Bank.

The next crisis happened shortly after Carlos Menem was

elected president in 1989. Inflation took off and peaked at

over 20,000%. The IMF had pressured Argentina to adopt a

series of foreign and seemingly overbearing trade and

monetary policies in the early 90s that prompted their turn

towards inward growth, isolation, and protectionism. They

raised excessive barriers to trade and tried to shelter

domestic industry. It quickly became obvious that this

strategy was not going to work, and in 1991 almost all

barriers to trade were dropped. The minister of the

economy, Domingo Cavallo, also enacted monetary policy that

pegged the peso to the US dollar. This was a rash move.

There was hyperinflation at the time, the country was

undergoing a shift from running a trade surplus to a trade

deficit, and the people were rioting; regardless, pegging

the currency ended with somewhat predictable negative

consequences.

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After Cavello completed his tasks Argentina did enjoy a

short period of growth. In 1994 an amendment was added to

their constitution that reduced the presidential term to

four years and limited the office to one consecutive

reelection. This was indicative of an increasingly stable

political environment; however, the Peso was devalued not

long after the amendment and GDP declined steeply.

President Carlos Menem chose to leave office the following

year, which was also an exciting year for Argentine trade.

The country made significant headway towards liberalization

by becoming a member of both the WTO and Mercosur; the peso

also experienced real appreciation relative to its trading

partners. Mercosur made almost all intra-Mercosur trade

duty-free, and the member implemented the common external

tariff (CET) to apply to all non-member countries.

Both trade agreements had profound immediate effects on

Argentina’s trading volumes. For example, intra-regional

trade rose from just $4 billion in 1991 to $23 billion in

1998. The next major events happened in 2000. Argentina

came out of a recession with a quickly growing deficit that

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made many Western countries nervous about their investments

prospects. That year the IMF agreed to a three year $7.2

billion standby arrangement conditioned on strict fiscal

adjustment and the assumption of 3.5% growth in 2000. Their

growth projection was grossly overestimated; it was only

0.5%. The IMF’s major loan was the first instance of the

United States forcing the “Washington consensus” on

Argentina.

In 2001 amid rampant inflation, extraordinary debt, and

public unrest everything collapsed in the December riots.

On December 23rd Argentina declared default on $93 billion

worth of bonds, and they restructured an additional $30

billion of debt to have longer maturities and lower

interest10. The economy collapsed and crisis ensued.

During the riots imports fell drastically, but exports

continued a slightly upward trajectory. Rua resigned after

the riots and Eduardo Duhalde was elected president in 2002.

He had the peso devalued, and eventually it stabilized at

10 If you are not familiar with debt restructuring consider the $30 billion they restructured to be money they “almost” defaulted on. It was a way to buy time.

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approximately three pesos/dollar. Allowing the currency to

devalue encouraged growth. During this period Brazil and

Argentina, normally competitive countries, managed to

establish an automotive FTA. Things began to look up and

steady incremental growth continued until the global

financial crisis of 2007-2008.

Christina Fernandez de Kirchner, the first female

president, was elected with the incipient predicament.

Argentina was affected much like the rest of Latin America

with respect to the global financial crisis; inflation

increased, loans were harder to come by, interest decreased,

and export demand decreased. Around this time China moved

through the ranks to become Argentina’s second greatest

trade partner. In 2012 Obama’s administration suspended

Argentine participation in the GSP (Generalized System of

Preferences), and they have not been welcomed back. This

really damaged Argentina’s trade. The GSP was created to

help developing countries expand their economies by letting

some US goods be imported duty-free. While losing GSP

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status was not utterly detrimental to Argentine trade, it

certainly did not help their recovery.

5.2 A Brief Industry Decomposition11

Argentina’s largest industry has long been agriculture,

as such they have a commodity driven economy. Any country

that is dependent on the export of natural resources is

particularly sensitive to foreign shock and natural

disaster. A season of drought can damage GDP for Argentina

in a way that service driven countries will never

experience. This past year the most exported good from

Argentina was agricultural fodder. Following that was motor

vehicles, fuel and lubricant, soybeans, vegetable oil,

maize, wheat, chemicals, meats, leather, and then wine and

spirits. The breakdown can be seen in the graph below.

11 The industry analysis uses data fro 2010 to the present.

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5.3 Trade Indicators and Trends

Historical analysis is a useful tool to analyze trade

with, but economic indicators are needed for a precise

understanding of the trading environment. There are

thousands of different indicators that could be used to

analyze trade, but I will focus on three: debt to GDP ratio,

trade in services, and the peso to US dollar exchange rate.

The debt to GDP ratio is useful for getting a rough

understanding of how in debt a country is, and more

importantly, how likely it is that they will be able to pay

that debt off. Argentina hit a record low of 34.5 in 1997

and a record high of 166 in 2002 (following the December

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riots). The graph below provides a visual of the ratio from

1998 to 2013. The massive jump around 2001 is reflective of

the $93 billion default they declared during the December

Riots.

Trade in services is the sum of service exports and

service imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current

US dollars. Unfortunately, the IMF only had data on trade

in services for Argentina from 2005 to 2012, but it is still

interesting to analyze the available data. Trade in

services was recorded at 6.26 in 2005, peaked at 6.32 in

2007, and has declined steadily to 5.52 today. Analyzing

the trade in services ratio is a bit tricky. First note

that the denominating currency does not affect the ratio

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since ratios are “unitless.” As such, the ratio indicates

that Argentina’s sum of service imports and exports is six

times their national GDP, and that either GDP has been

growing, or the sum of service imports and exports are

decreasing. The most interesting part of this indicator is

that the ratio is sitting at the “six level.”

Argentina has a history of hyperinflation and pendulum-

like foreign policy that has led to massive upward and

downward swings in inflation and exchange rate. The first

graph depicts the exchange rate from 1980 to the present;

the second graph displays the data from 1995 to the present.

Figure 1

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The Peso/US Dollar exchange rate is relevant to trade

analysis because Argentina and the US have consistently been

trade partners, and the dollar has exhibited consistent

growth. Since it has grown consistently the indicator for

how the peso’s value has fluctuated is more accurate. Using

a stable currency to measure the exchange rate allows for

the dependent variable, the peso, to be isolated

effectively.

Figure 1 illustrates how severe hyperinflation was in

the early 80s during the debt crisis. The exchange rate

Figure 2

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peaked at approximately 80,000 pesos/dollar. The exchange

rate peaked next in 1989, but hyperinflation was only one

eighth of that seen in the last crisis. The scale of Figure

1 restricts its use to visualizing hyperinflation; to see

the modest increase in the exchange rate over the past

decade refer to Figure 2. Until 2001 the peso had been

overvalued by a fixed exchange rate. When Duhalde’s

administration devalued the exchange rate it stabilized

around a more realistic three peso/dollar rate and has since

increased to approximately five pesos/dollar. There is fear

among some foreign investors that Argentina is currently on

the verge of more financial distress; the rising exchange

rate is often cited as a sign of a problematic future.

6. Conclusion

One popular explanation for Argentina’s paradoxical

decline is trade policy. Argentina was the model for

export-led growth when the trading system collapsed after

the Great Depression. Argentina’s global disconnect struck

another blow when their autarkic trade policy amidst the

creation of GATT caused them to miss a huge opportunity to

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enter into the international market on more fair grounds.

These are only two examples, but it seems as though the

country was consistently out of tune with the global trading

climate.

No single idea can explain the country’s unique

history. Another piece of the puzzle is the country’s

institutional weakness. When major changes were needed,

Argentina lacked the institutional structure to implement

anything substantial. Abundant natural resources turned

out to be a double-edged sword. The commodities gifted them

with goods to trade, but also made Argentina very vulnerable

to external shock. The political scene also caused problems

throughout much of the 20th century; military rule and coops

happened in quick succession for many years, plaguing the

country’s stability. Things may sound grim, but Argentina

is a resilient country. Their tourism, wine, and

automobile industry have the potential to thrive with the

new technology of the 21st century and pull them back on

track. Some major structural changes will be needed, but

nothing is impossible.

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7. Attachments

Attachment 112 – Argentinean Trade Timeline dating 1980-2014

Year Event

1980 Argentina sets a record deficit Jorge Rafael Videla the reigning dictator 1970s-80s oil prices were very high

1981 Bad debt leads to financial collapse Videla is prosecuted in the Trial of the

Juntas for large-scale human rights abuses and crimes against humanity

1982 Falklands Conflict/Crisis: 10 week war between Argentina and the UK over the

12 For the years that I do not reference in the paper the timelines corresponding rows have been deleted.

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Falkland Islands and South Georgia & the South Sandwich Islands. Resulted in a British victory.

1983 Raúl Alfonsín (UCR) becomes President Inflation at over 900%

1989 Carlos Menem becomes President Between July of 1989 – July 1990

inflation rose over 2,000% and peaked just above 20,000%

1991 Economy minister, Domingo Cavallo, enacted the convertibility law that pegged the monetary value of the peso to the US dollar

Around this time the trade balance shifted from a large surplus to a deficit.

Almost all nontariff trade barriers were removed and tariff rates reduced

Argentina enjoys a period of growth

1992 Suicide bombers attack Argentina’s Israeli embassy

1994 An amendment to the Argentine constitution reduced the Presidential term to four years and allowed a single consecutive reelection (Pact of Olivos)

Peso is devalued and GDP declines steeply1995 Carlos Menem leaves office and Fernando

de la Rua takes office temporarily Argentina becomes a member of the WTO Argentina becomes a member of Mercosur 1995-1999 the Argentine peso experiences

real appreciation relative to trading partners

1997 East Asian financial crisis begins

1998 Argentina enters recession after Russia

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and Brazil also become a part of the financial crisis

1999 Fernando de la Rua (UCR) elected formally

2000 IMF agrees to a $7.2 billion stand-by arrangement with Argentina. Later that year Rua announces a $40 billion multilateral assistance package.

2001 December Riots December 23: Declared default on $93

billion bonds and restructured approximately $30 billion of debt to havelonger maturity and lower interest

The economy collapses resulting in crisis Rua resigns after riots and Adolfo Saa

(PJ) appointed short term President2002 Eduardo Duhalde elected President

Peso devalued Exchange rate stabilized around 3

pesos/dollar Exports take up steady growth. Brazil/Argentina establish an automotive

FTA2003 Nestor Kirchner (PJ) elected President

Domestic demand increases Purchasing power of Peso increases Imports start recovering quickly

2004 Natural gas supply shortage – energy crisis 13

2005 Argentina begins an extensive debt restructuring process (response to massive 2001 default)

13 Natural gas at the time provided approximately 50% of theenergy necessary to electricity making plants.

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2006 Argentina reported as the fourth largest producer of wheat

2007 Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner elected President, currently finishing her secondterm

The global 2007-2008 financial crisis begins

2009 China became Argentina’s second greatest trade partner

2010 Anti-dumping measures lead to Chinese boycott of Argentine import products (soyoil primarily)

2011 Soy oil purchases by China resume after negotiation

2012 Obama administration suspends Argentine participation in GSP

2013 Argentina drops to be the tenth largest producer of wheat

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8. Attachment 2 - Definitions

The definitions are presented in alphabetical order, not

order of appearance. The definitions are not my own work;

definitions are taken directly from text in the works cited.

FDI (Foreign Direct Investment): Cross border

investment by a resident in one economy with the

objective of obtaining a lasting interest in an

enterprise resident in another economy.

FTA (Free Trade Agreement): A treaty between two or

more countries to establish a free trade area where

commerce in goods and services can be conducted across

common borders, without tariffs or hindrances, but

capital and labor may not move freely. Member countries

usually impose a uniform tariff on trade with non-

member countries.

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GDP (Gross Domestic Product): The monetary value of

all the finished goods and services produced within a

country's borders in a specific time period.

ISI (Import Substitution Industrialization): An

economic theory employed by developing or emerging

market nations that wish to increase their self-

sufficiency and decrease their dependency on developed

countries.

Mercosur: A sub-regional trading bloc and customs union

comprised of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and

Venezuela. Associate countries are Chile, Bolivia,

Columbia, Ecuador, and Peru. Its purpose is to promote

free trade and the fluid movement of goods, people, and

currency.

MFN (most favored nation principle): Obliges WTO member

countries to treat the imports of all other WTO member

countries no worse than they treat the imports of their

“most favored” trading partner.

GINI Index:  The most commonly used measure of wealth

inequality. It is a measure of statistical dispersion

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intended to represent the income distribution of a

nation's residents.

GSP (Generalized System of Preferences): A preferential

tariff system that provides for a formal system of exemption

from the general rules of the WTO. It is a system of

exemption from the most favored nation principle (MFN).

PJ (Justicialist Party): A Peronist political party.

Believes in social justice, economic independence, and

political sovereignty.

WTO (World Trade Organization): An international

organization dealing with the global rules of trade

between nations. Its main function is to ensure that

trade flows as smoothly, predictably, and freely as

possible.

UCR (Radical Civic Union): Oldest active political

party in Argentina. It is a social liberal political

party.

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Attachment 3 – The Washington Consensus (abridged)

1. Fiscal policy discipline. Avoid large fiscal debt

relative to GDP;

2. Redirection of public spending from subsidies toward

broad-based provision of key pro-growth, pro-poor

services like primary education, health care, etc.;

3. Tax reform, namely broadening tax base;

4. Interest rates that are market determined and positive

in real rates;

5. Competitive exchange rates;

6. Trade liberalization;

7. Liberalization of inward FDI;

8. Privatization of state enterprise;

9. Deregulation other than what is necessary to ensure

prudent government behavior;

10. Legal security for property rights.

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Works Cited

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Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Informati on

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"Argentina and the IMF." Argentina and the IMF. 12 Oct. 2014.

Web. 22 Oct. 2014.

"Argentina - Country History and Economic

Development." Argentina Country History and Economic Development,

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Information about Country History and Economic Development in

Argentina. Encyclopedia of the Nations. Web. 2 Dec.

2014.

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Argentina. GDP, Employment, Labor Force. Country Reports. Web.

22 Oct. 2014.

"Argentina Government Debt to GDP 1997-2014 | Data | Chart |

Calendar." Argentina Government Debt to GDP. 1 Nov. 2013.

Web. 14 Dec. 2014. 

"Argentina - Population - Historical Data Graphs per

Year." Index Mundi. Web. 2 Dec. 2014.

"Argentina: UN Data." UN Data. United Nations. Web. 22 Oct.

2014.

"A Century of Decline." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper,

15 Feb. 2014. Web. 22 Oct. 2014.

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Communications, Information about Infrastructure, Power, and

Communications in Argentina. Web. 22 Oct. 2014.

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"European Commission Directorate-General for Trade in

Argentina." European Commission: Trade. United Nations.

Web. 22 Oct. 2014.

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"Investopedia14 - Educating the World about

Finance." Investopedia. Web. 2 Dec. 2014. 

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Oct. 2014.

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(2012): 1-4. London School of Economics. Web. 22 Oct.

2014.

"Argentina." Data. World Bank. Web. 22 Oct. 2014.

"Argentina: The World Factbook." Central Intelligence Agency. Web.

22 Oct. 2014.

14 Used for attachment two’s definitions.

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