Tweet 0 0COMMENTS PRINT

International / Opinion WEB | JUN 24, 2013

OPINION

Rising DesperationThe US faith in Pakistan and a 'peaceful' Taliban is wishful thinking, and will only plunge Afghanistan,and the wider South Asian region, into a deeper and lasting chaos.AJIT KUMAR SINGH

TEXT SIZE

Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, in a ceremony held at the new National DefenseUniversity built to train Afghanistan's future military officers, announced on June 18, 2013, thathis country's armed forces were taking over the lead for nationwide security from the UnitedStates (US)­led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) coalition. Karzai declared, "Fromtomorrow all of the security operations will be in the hands of the Afghan security forces." The352,000 strong Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) will now execute all military operationsacross the 403 districts of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. Till the last phase of the handover,they were responsible for 90 percent of military operations in 312 districts nationwide.

The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) will now move entirely into a supportingrole, and will provide support to ANSF on the battlefield when they require it. Explaining thefuture role of NATO forces, NATO Secretary­General Anders Fogh Rasmussen observed,

As your [Afghan] forces step forward across the country, the main effort of ourforces is shifting from combat to support. We will continue to help Afghan troopsin operations if needed. But we will no longer plan, execute or lead thoseoperations. And by the end of 2014, our combat mission will be completed. Atthat time, Afghanistan will be fully secured by Afghans. From 2015, a newchapter will begin. Together with our partners, we are planning a new anddifferent mission. The goal of the new mission is to train, advise and assistAfghan forces. We will also play our part in the broader international efforts, toensure the long­term sustainment of the Afghan security forces.

Advertisement:Replay Ad

Presently, there are about 100,000 ISAF troops in Afghanistan, drawn from 48 countries,including 66,000 Americans. According to the Inteqal (Transition) Framework defined at theLondon and Kabul Conferences on Afghanistan in 2010, and US President Barack Obama'slatest Afghan policy, by the end of the current year, 2013, NATO Forces in Afghanistan will behalved. At the end of 2014, all combat troops will have left and will be replaced, if approved bythe Afghan Government, by a much smaller force that will only train and advise. A studiedambiguity has been maintained over the residual number of foreign troops that may remainafter 2014. However, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, US Army General Martin E.Dempsey, stated on February 9, 2013, "we're not going from number to mission, we're goingfrom mission to number", and that the yet undefined mission in Afghanistan would determinethe number of American troops to be deployed there after 2014.

Though the negative impact of the premature drawdown has been discussed elsewhere, thesuccessful transition is an appreciable development and President Karzai was rightly buoyantin declaring it. However, his exhilaration was cut short by another development that tookplace, on the same day, June 18, far from the country frontiers, but which could have far­reaching impact in Afghanistan.

On June 18, while opening their office in Qatar in Doha, the Afghan Taliban declared that theywere ready to talk with the US. The US reciprocated instantly, announcing that its officialswould reach Doha 'within days' for the talks. Though none of these two statements had thepotential to irk President Karzai, it is the background development which infuriated thegovernment of Afghanistan. After a meeting at President Karzai's palace, an Afghangovernment statement declared, "The opening of Taliban office in Qatar, the way it wasopened and messages it contained, contradicts the guarantees given by the US toAfghanistan."

Significantly, a sign outside the new Taliban office in Doha proclaimed it as representing the"Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan". Moreover, the Taliban claimed that the office would allow it"to improve its relations with countries around the world through understanding and talks as

PHOTOS NEWS BLOGS LATEST

Australian Cricketer Philip Hughes Succumbs to InjuriesNo Evidence of Murder, Rape in Badaun Sisters Case: CBI250 Foreign Bank Account Holders Identified: Jaitley in RSModi Asks SAARC to Fulfill Commitment on CombatingTerrorLS Passes Bill on CBI Chief's Appointment, Cong ResistsCoal Scam: CBI Files Case Diary in Sealed CoverGlobal Ebola Toll Rises to 5,689: WHOHong Kong Police Arrest Seven Officers for Assault ofProtesterSAD­BJP to Contest Civic Polls JointlySri Lanka Wins Series Opener Despite Moeen Ali's Century

FEATURED BLOGS & NEWS

Dear Ms Smriti Irani, JFYI: A Note On The Three­LanguageFormula

ClickSHORT TAKES

24 NOV 2014, 3:52:15 PM | BUZZ

Hello @bachikarkaria :﴿2:07 PM ‐ 24 Nov 2014

Extraneous Noise @NoiseExtraneous

Follow

50 RETWEETS 14 FAVORITES

YOUR TAKE | PERMALINK

24 NOV 2014, 3:51:49 PM | BUZZ

PROMOTED CONTENT

0Like Share

Search Outlook MAGAZINE WEB NEWS BLOGS PHOTOS REGULARS SECTIONS RANTS & RAVES

Outlook Traveller Business Money Images Hindi Follow us:

well as help them establish contact with the United Nations and aid groups, and to talk to thenews media." In addition, Taliban's insistence that "first we talk to the Americans" and "afterwe finish the phase of talking to the Americans, then we would start the internal phase..."convinced Karzai that the Afghan Government had been sidelined in the 'peace process'.

Kabul first objected to the use of the expression "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" by theTaliban, arguing that "such a thing doesn't exist". Rejecting participation in the talks, Karzaiinsisted that the Doha Office would be activated as a forum to try to re­establish Taliban'spolitical legitimacy, especially in international circles, rather than confining itself to peacetalks. Not surprisingly, Karzai halted negotiations with the US on the future Bilateral SecurityAgreement.

Subsequently, however, after constant US overtures, on June 20, 2013, Karzai's spokesmanFayeq Wahidi disclosed that the Afghan President was willing to join peace talks with theTaliban if the US follows through with promises he said were made by US Secretary of StateJohn Kerry over the phone. Wahidi said Kerry promised Karzai that the Taliban flag and thenameplate—"Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan"—would be removed and that the US would issuea formal written statement supporting the Afghan Government and making clear that theTaliban office would not be seen as an embassy or government­in­exile. Wahidi stated, "If allthose assurances and commitments the US had given, if we are assured that they will be fullyput in place on the issue of talks in Qatar, we would see no problem in entering into talks withthe Taliban in Qatar."

Karzai's concerns, it seems, have been somewhat met. The nameplate has been removedfrom the Taliban office. The flagpole inside the compound was apparently shortened and theTaliban flag—dark Quranic script on a white background—was still flying but not visible fromthe street. However, these moves have now made the Taliban unhappy. Senior Talibanspokesman Shaheen Suhail stated, in Doha, "There is an internal discussion right now andmuch anger about it, but we have not yet decided what action to take. But I think it weakensthe process from the very beginning."

Whether the talks will really take place and the potential for their success are a differentmatter; what is of immediate importance is the volte face of the US. On October 27, 2011, thethen US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, referring to talks with Taliban had observed, "Wehave been clear about the necessary outcomes of any negotiation. Insurgents must renounceviolence, abandon al Qaeda, and abide by the constitution of Afghanistan, including itsprotections for women and minorities. If insurgents cannot meet those red­lines, they will facecontinued and unrelenting assault." However, it now seems that the apparent preconditionshave themselves become the object of the negotiation. Jennifer Rene Psaki, spokesperson forthe US Department of State, stated, on June 19, 2013, "We don't expect that they would decryal­Qaida and denounce terrorism immediately off the top—this is the end goal."

What prompted the US to get into talks with the Taliban is hardly a secret. Indeed, there hasbeen little improvement in the security situation in Afghanistan. According to the UnitedNations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Annual Report 2012, released inFebruary 2013, the Country recorded 6,131 civilian casualties (2,179 civilian deaths and 3,952injuries), as compared to 5,636 civilian casualties (2,208 civilian deaths and 3,428 injuries)attributed to Anti­Government Elements. Similarly, UNAMA documented 782 improvisedexplosive device (IED) incidents which resulted in 2,531 civilian casualties (868 civilian deathsand 1,663 injuries) as compared to 2,460 civilian casualties (949 civilian deaths and 1,511injured) in an unspecified number of IED attacks in 2011. Ironically, while Washington wasexpressing satisfaction over the proposed Doha talks, the Taliban was attacking an Americanbase outside Kabul, killing four soldiers in rocket fire. Elaborating on the 'Doha Statement',which indicated that the Taliban would continue to fight the US in Afghanistan, the Talibanspokesman bragged, "The Mujahideen of the Islamic emirate from the other side also havetaken all the preparations that will be effective for the destruction of America's nests."

The peace initiative led by the US must be assessed within the perceived short and long terminterests of the troubled superpower. Media reports suggest that an immediate US goal is tosecure the release of US soldier, Bowe Bergdahl, who is in Taliban custody since June 2009,in return for the release of five Taliban prisoners from Guantanamo Bay. Over the long term,the US seeks an assurance from the Taliban that its Forces will not attack convoys carryingequipment and weapons of US Forces who are preparing to leave Afghanistan.

The US's latest outreach to Taliban is also to do with its realization that it needs Pakistan'shelp to exit from the land­locked Afghanistan at any cost. In return, it is trying to give somelegitimacy to Pakistan's Taliban proxies—the 'Pakiban' as some commentators now describethem—in Kabul, via their recognition in Doha. Kabul did make an indirect reference toPakistan's role in the context of the Doha office controversy, noting, "the latest developmentsshow that foreign hands are behind the Taliban's Qatar office." The US, however, publiclyacknowledged, on June 21, 2013, the 'constructive role' played by Pakistan in bringing Talibanand the US administration closer to reconciliation. US Ambassador to Pakistan Richard Olsonstated, "We are working closely with Pakistan. Pakistan played a constructive role in theopening of Taliban office in Doha. This is a big step and we greatly appreciate Pakistan'ssupport."

The present US initiatives are driven, overwhelmingly, by fears of a chaotic flight of its forcesin the last phases of the drawdown, under focused attack by the Taliban. In its moment ofdesperation Washington has, once again, fallen back on its unreliable 'principal ally', Pakistan,restoring the prime supporter of the Taliban and of terrorism in Afghanistan to a central role atthe most sensitive phase of the 'transition'. Though there are arguments that "the Taliban ischanging", as claimed by Masoom Stanikzai, head of the Afghan Government's High PeaceCouncil secretariat, it is useful to recall that the Malim Shah Wali, the head of the High PeaceCouncil in the southern Province of Helmand, was killed by the Taliban as recently as on May1, 2013. The US faith in Pakistan and a 'peaceful' Taliban is wishful thinking, and will onlyplunge Afghanistan, and the wider South Asian region, into a deeper and lasting chaos.

by Ideal MediaSponsored Links

Give your start­up theboost of cutting­edgeservices& upscaleaddress

Important considerationfor your healthinsurance.

Choose your car fromthe highest sellingluxury cars in India

To Those Who Don'tUnderstand TheFerguson Riots

It's better to be safethan sorry

A great way to get aluxury car for less price

POLLS

'What's In My Stars?' IsIt Alright for Irani toAsk?India's HRD minister, Smriti Irani,

while on a whirlwind...POLL STARTED ON: NOV 26, 2014

QUIZ

The United NationsThe United Nations just turned 69.How well do you...RIMME DIRCHI | NOV 07, 2014

ELSEWHERE IN OUTLOOK

The ‘Shahi Imams’ Of IndiaSix Years LaterCalcutta Corner'We Need A Change In Mind Set...''Rampant Abuse Of Office And Criminal Misconduct''This Is Misogyny'The Patel TalesThe ‘Law Of The Land’ On Kissing In PublicWhy I Love OutlookPar Avion

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Also on Outlook

Modi Asks SAARC to FulfillCommitment on Combating Terror

AUTHORS:

TAGS:

SECTION:

SUBSECTION:

Tweet 0 0COMMENTS PRINT

PLACES:

Ajit Kumar Singh is Research Fellow; Institute for Conflict Management. Courtesy: the SouthAsia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal

READ MORE IN:

TEXT SIZE

MOST VIEWED MOST COMMENTED

The Morality Tale That The Mahabharata Just Isn’t'We Need A Change In Mind Set...'20 Best Hindi Film Songs EverThe Persistence Of The BrahminShe Rings The School Bells'Rampant Abuse Of Office And Criminal Misconduct'Honk! Honk!‘Persian Translations Of Sanskrit Texts Show Respect’India's Best SchoolsThe ‘Law Of The Land’ On Kissing In Public

Find us on Facebook

Outlookindia

750,155 people like Outlookindia.

Facebook social plugin

Like

AJIT KUMAR SINGH

PAK­US AFGHANISTAN­PAKISTAN­US TALIBAN

INTERNATIONAL

OPINION

AFGHANISTAN USA

0Like Share

Latest News Indian Army Today News News Pak

TRANSLATE INTO: Select Language Powered by Translate

MORE : AJIT KUMAR SINGH

Terror At OurDoorstep | The attackat Wagah re­emphasises thedeepening anarchyacross Pakistan, withterrorists...

Under Siege | WhilePakistan "continues tobe a safe haven forterrorists", furtherstrengthening...

Self­inflicted Wounds| The attack on theairport in Karachi isjust another in a longchain of devastating...

Dangerous Gambit |The latest attackintended to target theIndian Consulate atJalalabad brings the...

MORE FROM OUTLOOK MAGAZINE

Hand In Hand On ASteep Hillside | Rivalsjoin in coalition in thefraught politics ofAfghanistan

As Talking Heads Roll| Pakistan’s mediacowers under theTTP’s glare

The Wages Of Fame |As if in reaction to herglobal renown, somein Pakistan revileMalala

No Tears In Paktika |Sushmita Banerjee’sfamily gropes forclosure as theyexamine her grisly end

MORE FROM OUTLOOK WEB

Why Does MalalaYusufzai’s NobelBother So Many OnThe Left? | TakeArundhati Roy. Forone who haschampioned people'scauses everywhere sowonderfully...

Terror At OurDoorstep | The attackat Wagah re­emphasises thedeepening anarchyacross Pakistan, withterrorists...

How To Create AndLose A War | Theunreported story ofhow the HaqqaniNetwork becameAmerica's greatestenemy

An IncompatibleCouple | The US andPakistan can’t helpbickering whentogether while wellaware that divorce...

MORE FROM OUTLOOK NEWS

US House PassesMalala YousafzaiScholarship Act

Taliban SplinterGroup ReleasesPhoto of WagahSuicide Bomber

Despite Nobel Win,Pakistan's MalalaHated By Many atHome

Six Top Pak TalibanCommandersAnnounce Allegianceto ISIS

MORE FROM OUTLOOK BLOGS

Dilip Kumar, ForeverYoung

Deewar And SholayDialogues InSanskrit... And TheObligatory GujaratAngle

Tarun Tejpal:Laceration By'Extraneous Noise'

Dear Ms Smriti Irani,JFYI: A Note On TheThree­LanguageFormula

Today News News Pak India NDTV India Today

You need to accept third­party cookies in your browser in order to comment using this social plugin.

Facebook social plugin

Comment

Add a comment...

Post a CommentYou are not logged in, please log in or register

DAILY MAIL

HAVE YOUR SAY | READ ALL 6 COMMENTS

6/D­115JUN 26, 201306:19 PM

Agree with the conclusion that "The US faith in Pakistan and a'peaceful' Taliban is wishful thinking, and will only plungeAfghanistan, and the wider South Asian region, into a deeper andlasting chaos."

Like all Great Powers, the US is interested in ONLY it's "nationalinterest". It's interest is to exit Afghanistan as it feels whateverhappens in Afghanistan will not impact it's "homeland" anymore. Ifsomeone else's "national interest" also have any overlap with that, itis a nice thing.

ARUN MAHESHWARIBANGALORE, INDIA PERMALINK | LIKE (1) | DISLIKE (0) | REPORT ABUSE

5/D­172JUN 25, 201307:20 PM

The terrorists attack are more in Pakistan than in Afganistan. Alsorecently most of the attacks by Taliban were unable to muster anyspectacular gains.. on the contrary Afgan forces could liquidate theattackers with minimum loss. ( As opposed to Indians securityforces which lose more to terrorists attacks) this must have rattledTaliban. So to assume that Taliban are something to be dreaded ofis unreasonable. Being terrorists they can cause some damage andmake difficult for Afgan govt. to govern but not impossible. It mustbe noted that all the countries of our sub continent are facingproblem of terrorism but still pursuing path towards prosperity.

MASAKASHI, INDIA PERMALINK | LIKE (1) | DISLIKE (0) | REPORT ABUSE

4/D­76JUN 25, 201311:51 AM

Unclear if we have either the capacity or the stomach to succeedwhere the US has not. Stay safe.

ASHOK LALMUMBAI, INDIA PERMALINK | LIKE (3) | DISLIKE (0) | REPORT ABUSE

3/D­39JUN 25, 201308:00 AM

US is ready to cut and run. It has been obvious for months now.They will cut a deal with Taliban and make Pakistan/ISI its gurantor. Other than mouthing meaningless platitudes If India thinks herinterests will be taken care of ; they will be way off the mark. Serioustrouble is on its way. We can either ignore it and act surprised whenit hits us or prepare for it and challenge it before it becomes big.India has already lost precious time .

ASHUTOSH KAULTORONTO, CANADA PERMALINK | LIKE (4) | DISLIKE (0) | REPORT ABUSE

2/D­202JUN 24, 201310:57 PM

Just a face saving excuse for a retreat from Afghanistan afterlosing. Any agreement won't be worth the paper it is written on.Shades of Vietnam.

FACTFACTPUR, SVALBARD AND JAN MAYEN ISLANDS PERMALINK | LIKE (1) | DISLIKE (1) | REPORT ABUSE

HAVE YOUR SAY | READ ALL 6 COMMENTS

Comments Policy

ABOUT US | CONTACT US | SUBSCRIBE | ADVERTISING RATES | COPYRIGHT & DISCLAIMER | COMMENTS POLICY

OUTLOOK TOPICS: A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Or just type in a few initial letters of a topic: go

DAILY UPDATES MAGAZINE SECTIONS INTERACTIVE FEATURES REGULARS RESOURCES

Web ArticlesBlogsPhotosNewsShort Takes

Current IssueBack IssuesSpecial IssuesSubscribe Print EditionSubscribe Digital Edition

Arts & EntertainmentBooksBusinessInternationalNationalSocietySports

Rants & RavesPollsQuiz

Book ReviewsCover StoriesDocumentsEssaysExtractsInterviewsOpinionsPortraitsProfiles

10 QuestionsBibliofileBull's EyeCartoonsDiaryGlitteratiLettersPolscapePolsutraSecret DiaryShow Time

ArchiveAuthorsLog­in/RegistrationMost PopularTopics: A­Z