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Journal of AridEnvironments

Journal of Arid Environments 70 (2007) 834–846

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A synthesis of sociological and biologicalperspectives on sustainable land use in Namaqualand

B. Cousinsa, M.T. Hoffmanb,�, N. Allsoppc, R.F. Rohded

aProgramme for Land and Agrarian Studies, University of the Western Cape,

P Bag X17, Bellville 7535, South AfricabPlant Conservation Unit, Botany Department, University of Cape Town, P Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa

cARC-LBD: Range and Forage Unit, c/o Department of Biodiversity and Biological Conservation,

University of the Western Cape, P Bag X17, Bellville 7535, South AfricadCentre of African Studies, University of Edinburgh, 4 Carlton Street, Edinburgh, EH4 1NJ, Scotland, UK

Received 31 January 2007; received in revised form 9 April 2007; accepted 18 April 2007

Abstract

A transdisciplinary synthesis, grouped into four main themes, of the key papers in this Special

Issue on Namaqualand is provided. Perspectives on current environmental, economic and social

issues in the region are interpreted in the context of the past and are used to inform future trajectories

of change and development needs within the region. Firstly, in terms of the climatic and biophysical

environment, Namaqualand’s rich biodiversity is not uniformly distributed and is explained in terms

of the spatially heterogeneous geological, pedological and topographical gradients that characterize

the region. Spatial and temporal variation in rainfall over long time frames would also have

promoted speciation within isolated, poorly-dispersed, leaf succulent populations. Future climate

models propose a decrease in rainfall across the region with an associated reduction in livestock

production. The second theme provides an historical perspective on changing land use practices in

Namaqualand over the last 2000 years. It suggests that they have frequently been influenced by

events originating far from the region such as colonial expansion, apartheid legislation and

globalization. Local people, particularly marginalised communal farmers have had to adapt to these

outside influences within an increasingly confined landscape that has progressively eroded their

mobility and restricted their ability to utilise the spatial and temporal variability inherent in semi-arid

environments. The third theme shows how livelihood diversification has been one of the key ways in

which local people from communal areas have adapted to change. While farming makes up a

relatively small part of the income of most households it enhances the resilience of livelihoods in the

region. The fourth theme is concerned with land reform, conservation and restoration in

see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

.jaridenv.2007.04.002

nding author.

dress: thoffman@botzoo.uct.ac.za (M.T. Hoffman).

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Namaqualand. While a significant amount of land has been transferred to previously-marginalised

groups, equitable access to these resources is lacking. An exclusively commercial orientation within

the extension and development programmes of the Department of Agriculture further hampers the

effectiveness of land reform as a tool for reducing levels of poverty in the majority of households in

the region. Conservation initiatives could enhance livelihood options in Namaqualand but are

viewed by some as being in competition with the state’s land reform programme and are too recent to

reflect significant regional benefits at this stage. While restoration is possible in severely degraded

lands, the costs and operational difficulties in these event-driven, semi-arid systems are emphasised.

Finally, this synthesis suggests that the important exogenous drivers of change in the 21st century are

likely to be climate, biodiversity conservation initiatives, land redistribution and continued processes

of de-agrarianisation as a result of macro-economic change. A focus on building institutions,

encouraging livestock mobility within a significantly expanded commons and supporting livelihood

diversification are some of the approaches necessary to address the development needs of

Namaqualand.

r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Climate; Conservation; Land reform; Livelihoods; Transdisciplinarity

1. Introduction

Most of the important problems facing the world today, such as poverty, socialdisruption, land transformation and global warming require transdisciplinary approachesif long-term solutions are to be developed (Max-Neef, 2005). This is also true for semi-aridNamaqualand where social, economic and environmental problems interact in a complexmanner to influence the daily lives and decisions of more than 60,000 people living in theregion. This complexity is further influenced by the dynamic changes which have sweptacross the post-apartheid South African landscape since 1994. A host of new legislativeinstruments has been implemented, local government structures have been transformedand Namaqualand’s economic environment is also vastly different from 1994 (Wisborg,2006). An international focus on Namaqualand’s rich biodiversity has also brought newopportunities and challenges to the region (Cowling et al., 1999). An accurateunderstanding of how Namaqualand has changed over time in response to a range ofinfluences operating at local to global scales is essential for both planning and policydevelopment purposes and fosters a predictive understanding of likely future changes inthe region. Insights derived from such transdisciplinary inquiry are also essential for mostmodern conservation planning approaches (e.g. Knight et al., 2006) and provide theplatform for integrated and sustainable development initiatives in the region.

As a first step in this process, researchers from a variety of backgrounds and disciplinesmet in May 2005 to discuss the state of knowledge within their individual disciplines and toexamine its implications for people’s livelihoods and sustainable land use practices withinthe region. This Special Issue is a collection of the key contributions to this meeting. Herewe provide a synthesis of the main findings and organise our summary into two parts. Inthe first part, trajectories of change in Namaqualand are outlined within four main themescovering the climate and biophysical environment, historical land use practices and theirimpacts, current livelihoods, and land reform, conservation and restoration. In the secondpart we present an analysis of the likely future challenges which will be faced by the region.Some suggestions for how to meet these challenges are also presented.

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2. Past trajectories of change

2.1. Climate and the biophysical environment

Four papers in this volume describe Namaqualand’s variable biophysical (Desmet, 2007;Francis et al., 2007) and climatic environment (MacKellar et al., 2007; Midgley andThuiller, 2007). These accounts document the high degree of spatial variation that exists inthe region and illustrate how Namaqualand’s climate has changed over both long andrelatively short time scales. Future regional climate scenarios and likely species responsesare also described.Namaqualand’s heterogeneous geological, pedological and topographical gradients give

rise to a wide range of different habitats organised very broadly into seven eco-regions. Arelatively thin sandy coastal strip grades into a complex mix of quartzite and gneiss rocksand boulders interspersed with sandy valleys or plains as one moves from the coast up inelevation either onto the Kamiesberg massif in the east or the Richtersveld mountains inthe north. In addition to this basic geological and topographical template, termites andother fossorial animals, acting as eco-engineers, create and maintain large termite mounds(known locally as heuweltjies) over much of Namaqualand, but particularly in the westalong the coastal platform. These structures add a further layer of environmentalcomplexity and significantly affect hydrological process both at a patch and landscape level(Francis et al., 2007).Although plants and animals react to this environmental heterogeneity, Desmet (2007)

makes the important point that Namaqualand is not uniformly diverse. In some areas,such as in the Knersvlakte, a fine partitioning of the landscape results in very high levels ofspecies turnover over relatively short distances. Generally, environments associated withquartzite, whether as inselbergs or gravel plains, have a disproportionately higher level ofdiversity and endemism than the surrounding matrix. This uneven distribution ofbiodiversity is important for both conservation planning and for the emerging land reformprogramme in the region. Compromises could be reached between different land useoptions for the region creating, for example, a mosaic of fully-protected areas consideredirreplaceable and more heavily-utilised sites dominated by widely-dispersed and commonspecies. Understanding the spatial distribution of Namaqualand’s biodiversity is, thereforeessential, as is an understanding of the ecological processes which have created and whichcontinue to maintain it.Explanations for this extraordinary diversity have also been sought in both current and

historic climate patterns. The relatively mild Namaqualand winters with a predictable,albeit low rainfall regime, favour a diverse array of dwarf leaf succulent shrubs which alsoappear able to benefit from the frequent coastal fogs in the region. Midgley and Thuiller(2007) further suggest that the high species richness and high levels of endemism in theregion, particularly within the Ruschioideae, can be partly explained by changes inNamaqualand’s climate regime during the Pleistocene. Alternating periods of cooler/wetter and warmer/drier weather could have isolated populations of poorly-dispersed, leafsucculent plants resulting in the formation of distinct lineages.An analysis of historical data for the period 1950–1999 by MacKellar et al. (2007)

suggests that there are complex local influences on rainfall. Some areas (e.g. aroundSpringbok) have indeed shown a decrease in annual rainfall over this period which isconsistent with future climate change predictions for the region. Other areas further south

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and associated with the Kamiesberg mountains exhibit an increasing trend in annualrainfall since 1950. Such a pattern is contrary to the idea of a southward moving belt ofrain-bearing weather systems predicted under future climate change scenarios.

Building on the climate change scenarios of MacKellar et al. (2007), and Midgley andThuiller (2007) suggest that future climates will be unlike any that have occurred inNamaqualand over the last several million years. Using a range of bioclimatic models theyhighlight problems that the biome as a whole, as well as a number of widely dispersed plantand vertebrate species could face in the 21st century under such climatic conditions.Richardson et al. (2007) further illustrate the negative impact that a future decrease inrainfall will have on livestock production and agriculturally-dependent livelihoods in theregion. They suggest that a 10% reduction in mean rainfall will result in a 35% reductionin animal numbers over 200 years. Responses to these changes lie in the development of awider range of economic opportunities than currently exists in the area. The fledgling eco-tourism industry shows some promise but is unlikely to replace the mining andagriculturally-based economies in either the short or medium-term.

2.2. Land-use history and impacts

During the last 2000 years pastoralism has been the dominant land-use activity inNamaqualand. Four papers address issues of pastoral sustainability from variousdisciplinary perspectives and spatial and temporal scales. These range from Webley’s(2007) archaeological examination of indigenous pre-colonial herding practice to Hoffmanand Rohde’s (2007) environmental history overview of wide-scale land-use impacts toAnderson and Hoffman’s (2007) analysis of contemporary vegetation states acrosscommunal and commercial fence lines and Samuels et al.’s (2007) study of herdingpractices in a village commons. These various perspectives are complimentary andaugment one another.

Webley (2007) presents evidence for herding practices at sites dating back to 2000 BP.The question of who these pastoralists were—immigrants with a herding culture, orindigenous groups who had adapted herding practices—remains obscure and speculativealthough she supports the latter hypothesis. Since the evidence is so sparse, and that whichexists is diverse and confusing, Webley (2007) suggests that the transhumance patternsobserved in the early colonial period might account for this diversity of evidence—thewinter aggregations and summer dispersal patterns across different agro-ecological zonesof Namaqualand would leave significantly different material remains.

Hoffman and Rohde (2007) take this theme up in the historical period and trace pastoralpatterns as they became progressively more narrow due to the forces of colonialism. Thepre-colonial practice of migration between the Kamiesberg and surrounding summergrazing extended as far north as the Orange River and to the Olifants river in the south,and from the Sandveld winter grazing to the grasslands of Bushmanland during latesummer. This ambit became increasingly confined during the 19th century to the agro-ecological zones within and adjacent to the mission reserves and in the late 20th century todiscrete village commons within the reserves. In other words, the pattern of transhumancehad all but been destroyed.

Samuels et al. (2007) describe this later condition for one village in the Leliefonteincommunal area. Here, the outcomes of various herding practices based on degrees ofmobility and intensity of management within the village commons are analysed. The

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dependence of livestock on the rocky uplands during drought is one of his main findings—these key resource areas are a vital grazing reserve. But overall his findings suggest thatpastoral mobility within this extremely confined area of village commons is more a matterof social obligation and personal preference than a strategy to maximise livestock output.Anderson and Hoffman (2007) corroborate the findings of Samuels et al. (2007) with

regard to the productivity of upland habitats. They also attribute the transformation oflowland vegetation to prolonged and intense grazing pressure, primarily by communalfarmers. The shift from large perennial shrubs to annuals means that these heavily grazedareas are more dependent and responsive to rainfall, resulting in higher livestockmortalities during drought periods.One obviously common theme within these papers is that mobility is an important

aspect of livestock production and livelihoods. Hoffman and Rohde (2007) show how thepastoral transhumance by the descendents of Namaqualand’s indigenous population hasbeen inexorably reduced to the point of stasis whereas some commercial farmers haveadapted the Khoekhoen seasonal migration patterns through multiple farm ownership invarious agro-ecological zones to best exploit existing climatic and ecological conditions.They also point out that the widespread cultivation of sandy lowland areas throughoutNamaqualand which reached its largest extent during the mid-20th century accounts forthe low grazing potential of these fallow areas today.In the mid 20th Century there was heavy government investment in white farmers

allowing them to expand their production and adopt commercial objectives more fullycompared to earlier times. Withdrawal of state support in the last decade of the 20thCentury may be responsible for a reduction in the number of white commercial farmers.Concurrently, reliance on subsistence agriculture in the communal areas has largely beendisplaced by wage labour dependence and state pension provision. A small number ofresidents on the commons are taking advantage of recent access to agricultural loans andnew land to expand their farming activities. The landscape changes accompanying sucheconomic transformations have taken place in relatively short time spans. This is evident inthe rapid expansion and decline of crop and livestock production over the last 50 years.The economic trends evident today—de-agrarianisation (but also agricultural landreform), the growth in tourist-related activities and the expansion of conservation areasare part of wider regional and global developments.The fact that exogenous influences, ranging from the introduction of herding

in pre-history to the social and economic disruption which accompanied colonialexpansion, apartheid and globalisation has meant that during the last two thousandyears the people of Namaqualand have continuously adapted to outside forcesof change.The impacts of land-use can thus be seen to be dynamic and subject to causes which

originate far from Namaqualand. These impacts are not necessarily permanent orirreversible. Restoration and conservation of basic ecosystem goods and services, even inNamaqualand’s communal areas is possible, and is one of the recurring themes of thepapers which examine livelihoods and land reform.

2.3. Livelihoods

Four of the five papers in this section that examine rural livelihoods show that they areoften composed of diverse activities, assets, relationships and income sources. These

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characteristics help buffer rural households from risk and the stresses and shocks producedby highly variable rainfall and other exogenous events and processes. They are an adaptiveresponse to a dynamic and changing environment, in both the biophysical and the socio-economic dimensions. Many such households suffer chronic poverty, suggesting that theselivelihood and coping strategies are not entirely successful in the face of deep seated socio-economic structural inequalities.

Trajectories of change as outlined in many of this issue’s papers, suggest that theprospects for many rural households of moving out of poverty are slim. Anseeuw andLaurent (2007) examine the farming aspirations of men employed in mines in Namaqua-land, a sector which has recently been in rapid decline. Many of these men plan to begin acommercial livestock farming enterprise after leaving mine employment. Most do notenvisage farming on a full-time basis but rather as one of several income sources (termed‘pluriactivity’ by Anseeuw and Laurent (2007)). They are generally from the ranks ofmiddle-income workers who are able to save part of their salaries for investment in otherlivelihood activities and have access to communal land through their families. Anseeuwand Laurent (2007) argue that a combination of pluriactivity and farming on communalland are rational strategies for aspirant farmers during a ‘transitional phase’ between mineemployment and commercial farming on private land, given the high capital costs ofcommercial livestock farming and the economic efficiency of communal land productionsystems. A significant constraint on these strategies, however, is the character ofgovernment agricultural policies and support services such as technical support, creditand marketing, which are still oriented towards full-time commercial farms and do notcater for producers on communal land.

Berzborn (2007) shows how important diversification of livelihood strategies is forhouseholds in the Richtersveld area. Over a third of the households that she surveyedreceive most of their income from mine employment and around 60% receive at least partof their income from this source. Formal employment opportunities exist relatively nearbyand out-migration is less common than in other communal areas. State grants such aspensions are the main source of income for 42% of households. Almost three quarters ofhouseholds own livestock, which is not a major source of income for many but doesprovide a form of ‘insurance against unemployment’ as well as contributing directly tohousehold subsistence. Household members tend to pool and redistribute their incomewithin the family. In Berzborn’s (2007) view diversification of livelihood sources andarrangements that facilitate diversification (such as income pooling) are strategies toreduce exposure to risk and enhance the ‘resilience’ of livelihoods.

In Namaqualand, as elsewhere, patterns of employment, access to productive assets andhousehold decision-making processes tend to be both gendered and unequal. Kleinbooiand Lahiff (2007) explore women’s attitudes to land and farming in the communal areas ofNamaqualand. Most women value land and farming as integral to life in Namaqualandand many young women do aspire to be farmers. Social conventions discouragebequeathing land to daughters, and most women are dependent on men to gain accessto land for production. Nevertheless, women play key roles in the household agriculturaleconomy, for example in vegetable growing, poultry production, grain farming andlivestock production. They are less involved than men in the ‘external’ aspects such aspurchase of inputs, sale of produce, labour hire and participation in committees. A fewwomen, including unmarried women, widows and wives, do farm independently but facemany obstacles, such as lack of access to finance. Kleinbooi and Lahiff (2007) show that

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land reform in Namaqualand as currently implemented is not addressing the specific needsand problems of women.Two papers focus on aspects of animal production systems on communal land in

Namaqualand and show how the character of these systems influences livelihoodstrategies. Hendricks et al. (2007) focus on management strategies pursued by the ownersof herds of small livestock that are grazed on the commons of the Richtersveld NationalPark (where semi-nomadic Nama pastoralists retain grazing rights for herds composedlargely of goats). The paper examines the relationship between herd size and herdperformance, and discusses whether or not incentives exist for individual pastoralists toreduce their herd size—a recommendation often made by rangeland professionals tooptimize animal production and also conserve biodiversity. The authors find fewsignificant relationships between herd size and herd performance, one exception being inrelation to kidding percentages, with larger herds (4350 animals) experiencing lowerkidding rates than smaller herds. They suggest that variable rainfall, management options(including access to key resources along the Orange River) are more important influenceson herd performance than herd size, and thus that manipulation of herd size is unlikely tobe an effective management intervention for achieving long-term conservation objectives.One implication for livelihoods is that retaining access to communal grazing and themobility across landscapes that this makes possible are likely to remain important forpastoralists in the Richtersveld.Richardson et al. (2007) report on the results of a modeling exercise that explores the

effects of rainfall and stock numbers on changes in vegetation and on outputs of milk,meat and wool from communal rangelands in Namaqualand. Results show that offtake inthe form of sales and slaughters are maximal when stock numbers are limited torecommended carrying capacity as defined by the Department of Agriculture. However,the rangeland is incapable of supporting these numbers over the entire climatic cycle andthe paper highlights the importance of temporal patterns of variation of animal numbers indetermining the sustainability of Namaqualand’s communal farming system. It shows thatover the long-term, stocking rates do affect rangeland condition, with even therecommended stocking rates unlikely to allow a moderately degraded rangeland torecover to less degraded states over a time period of 100 years. In addition, keeping stocknumbers constant at recommended carrying capacity may also lead to vegetationdegradation and long-term changes in vegetation due to prolonged drought or a reductionin animal mortality may eventually lead to a reduction in ecological carrying capacity.A key theme within these papers is that of livelihood diversification over time, with

agriculture now being only one of several livelihood options for residents of communalareas in Namaqualand. There are several reasons for this shift, including dispossession ofthe indigenous population in the 18th and 19th centuries and the promotion by previousstate regimes of racially exclusive commercial farming on privately owned land, with aconcomitant reduction in the extent of communal rangelands. In the 20th century,Namaqualand’s communal areas experienced a growing population, state agriculturalpolicies discriminated against black farmers, the mining industry developed rapidly andopportunities for labour migration outside the region emerged. Rural householdsincreasingly met their basic needs through purchase of commodities rather than directprovisioning and needed cash to do so, but farming could not provide the requisite cashincome for most households. More recently, state grants such as pensions and childsupport grants have become a key source of household income. Farming, either of crops or

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livestock, now contributes only a small proportion of the total income of mosthouseholds—but still plays an important role, as Berzborn (2007) illustrates, in enhancingthe resilience of livelihoods.

Another theme explored in some of the papers is that of social differentiation. Ruralcommunities in Namaqualand are by no means homogeneous, some of the most importantaxes of difference being gender, employment status, livestock ownership and politicalstanding. These identities influence access to resources made available throughdevelopment projects or redistributive measures such as land reform.

2.4. Land reform, conservation and restoration

Land reform, conservation initiatives and mine closure legislation are among the driversfor change in the natural and social environment of Namaqualand. May and Lahiff (2007)map the progress of Land Reform initiatives, Lebert and Rohde (2007) critique the processleading to settlement of new commonage and Allsopp et al. (2007) describe the norms andstandards governing the use and management of the old commons. The uniquebiodiversity of the region has fuelled two other land based drivers of change in the lastdecade in Namaqualand: those of conservation and restoration, both of mined andagriculturally disturbed land (Carrick and Kruger, 2007; Simons and Allsopp, 2007).

Land reform in South Africa is aimed at redressing the imbalances caused by raciallyrestrictive land legislation that determined which groups could own land prior to 1994(May and Lahiff, 2007). There is also the hope that land reform will enhance land-basedlivelihoods and hence income levels among the rural poor. The government has set a targetof 30% of all land not in the hands of black people in 1994 becoming black owned. InNamaqualand 12% of this land had been transferred by the end of 2005.

May and Lahiff (2007) describe the changing nature of formal institutions controllingcommunal land. Since 1994, there has been an attempt to devolve the status of communalland tenure through the Transformation of Certain Rural Areas Act 94 of 1998.Namaqualand served as a pilot area for the roll-out of tenure reform where communitiesvoted on whether their commonage should be owned the local municipality or by acommon property association. Most chose the later option, betraying a deep suspicion ofthe political agendas of newly constituted municipal authorities. A final decision on theoutcome of these referenda has yet to be made by the Minister.

The aims of the land reform process are two fold: securing household food security forthe very poor and fostering an emerging commercial black farmer class. Lebert and Rohde(2007) describe how land redistribution within the commonage programme has tended tobenefit the wealthier communal farmers since they have the necessary resources to accessthe newly acquired farms. It is hardly accidental that they also form the majority oncommonage management committees. In addition, the farmers using the new land haveadopted a conservation and commercialisation narrative which resonates with theDepartment of Agriculture in order to secure their rights of access. The Department ofAgriculture has focused on improving infrastructure on the new commons, the aim beingto promote quasi-commercial models of livestock production through settling a fewfarmers on each farm. That these farms can support fully commercial enterprises isdoubtful, since most successful commercial farmers in Namaqualand own more than onefarm and the recent reported decrease in commercial farmers (from 665 to 420) suggestthat commercial livestock production has become less viable.

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The Department of Agriculture’s approach is at odds with the objectives and practices ofthe majority of livestock keepers on the commons. The training and outlook of agriculturalextension officers was previously aimed at supporting commercial livestock farming bysingle owners on one or more privately owned farms. They are now poorly prepared tofulfil the government’s aims of securing food security for the majority of rural poor and toenter the terrain of contestation and struggle around common property (Lebert andRohde, 2007). They dismiss the many objectives that communal farmers have in keepinglivestock, and the role these play in risk aversion strategies of poor people (Allsopp et al.,2007; Berzborn, 2007). They are also unable to recognise that livestock farmers on thecommons have developed practices which are based on local knowledge and follow tacitcollective norms which regulate access to the rangelands.Allsopp et al. (2007) describe how informal institutions continue to control access to the

old commons through collective norms and suggest that these could be tested for theirefficiencies. Practices currently in use may be more useful in meeting the needs of livestockfarmers on the commons than imported ideas developed for large-scale private farms.Since rainfall is a major determinant of livestock numbers on the commons (Richardson etal., 2007) and livestock keepers attempt opportunistic management but are constrained bythe lack of access to greater grazing areas during drought (Samuels et al., 2007), morecreative management of the new lands could be considered. These could include using thenew lands as a drought reserve and returning to a more mobile form pastoralism aspracticed in the past (Hoffman and Rohde, 2007; Webley, 2007).One conclusion that emerges from these papers is that the main protagonists of land

reform and resettlement are ill-equipped to ensure equitable access to resources andprovide appropriate support for farmers on the old and new commons. Ironically, giventhe objectives of land reform, poor people and women seem to be the losers in its roll-outin Namaqualand, whilst a small group of better resourced farmers take advantage of theopportunities.Conservation organisations own much less land than is under communal tenure but

are perceived by many to be in direct competition with the Department of LandAffairs. There is a perception that conservation organisations drive up the price of farmsto levels above their productive value, and thus beyond the scope of land reforminitiatives. On the other hand, perceptions among conservationists that land reformresults in increased land degradation appears to drive some conservation programmes.Together these opposing views comprise an area of potential conflict around land inNamaqualand and highlight the difficulties and opportunities inherent in cross-disciplinaryperspectives.Various restoration initiatives exist to tackle those lands most transformed from their

original state. Simons and Allsopp (2007) describe the nature of some of thesetransformations on heavily grazed and cropped lands. The short-term results show thatwhilst some techniques show limited promise, rainfall is a major determinant of success.Mining operations, which arguably have the most severe and long-lasting impacts on theenvironment in Namaqualand, are compelled by recent legislation to restore mined land toits natural state or to an economically viable land-use. Carrick and Kruger (2007)investigate the factors preventing natural recruitment on mined soil and review theliterature for successful interventions towards developing best practices for minerehabilitation. Both these papers suggest that restoration of natural vegetation can onlybe achieved with considerable effort.

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This examination of the context and antecedents for land reform and land restorationinitiatives highlights the considerable ecological, social and economic dimensions thatmust be taken into account if genuine restoration of the landscape in all its aspects is to beachieved. A positive and energetic effort to reverse the effects of past injustices andnegative land-use impacts has gained pace since 1994—but the whole project will takeconsiderable time, energy, debate and further research, to achieve.

3. Future trajectories of change

What do the research findings reported in these papers suggest might be the trajectory ofchange for regimes of land use and livelihoods in Namaqualand? Can an understanding ofprocesses of change in the past help predict the character of future regimes? A key startingpoint must be recognition of the decisive influence of exogenous forces in this marginal,semi-arid region. We suggest that the important exogenous drivers of change in the 21stcentury are likely to be climate, biodiversity conservation initiatives, land reform (and landredistribution in particular), and continued processes of de-agrarianisation as a resultof macro-economic change. However, also important will be the degree to which‘endogenous’ decision-makers (such as local government bodies, extension staff andmembers of communities) take account of emerging research evidence in developingalternative options for land use and resource management. There is plenty of space forinnovation and the development of alternative options, within, of course, the fundamentalconstraints imposed by environmental, economic and broader political factors.

Major uncertainties exist in relation to the future climate of Namaqualand—but it ispossible that rainfall could well decrease over time, making land-based livelihoods such aslivestock production and cropping even more constrained than they are present. A shift inseasonal rainfall patterns as well as a reduction in annual rainfall will have significantimpacts on vegetation and hence land use. This suggests that production systems will haveto make significant adaptations in the course of this century, probably entailing a furtherdecrease in agricultural activity. As in the past and present, however, the high degree ofspatial variability found within Namaqualand’s biophysical environment is likely tocontinue to be a critical factor, with some areas more biologically diverse than others, anddifferent eco-zones contributing in variable ways to livestock production. Similarly, thehigh degree of temporal variability (e.g. in annual rainfall) is also likely to continue, andwill have to be factored into planned adaptation to climate change.

Concern over climate change is linked to growing international interest in the value ofbiodiversity of Namaqualand. It is likely that externally driven conservation initiatives willcontinue to acquire substantial areas of land, reducing the amount available for landredistribution (and thus livestock production and other land-based livelihoods). The trade-off between these competing land uses would be ameliorated, however, if conservationefforts were to be more clearly focussed on those local environments that containexceptionally high levels of biodiversity or endemism, or are more sensitive to intensiveuse. This might result in reduced anxiety amongst conservationists and governmentofficials about perceived degradation in other areas, allowing greater freedom for livestockproducers and land reform beneficiaries to adopt ‘opportunistic’ management strategies(e.g. involving higher levels of mobility, acquiring land for drought reserves, managementof key resources, and so on). Where genuine conflicts of interest arise between biodiversityconservation and livestock production direct compensation for rural farming communities

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could be considered as a way to offset the opportunity costs of withdrawing key areas fromproductive use.Seasonal mobility of herds is a key aspect of livestock systems in Namaqualand, and an

adaptive response to high levels of spatial and temporal variability. Since these are likely toremain a key feature of the Namaqualand environment, what are the implications forfuture patterns of land use? Can the pre-colonial system of transhumant pastoralism acrossan expanded commons be recreated via land redistribution, as Cowling (1991) hasspeculated? The current pattern of elite capture of land reform analysed by Lebert andRohde (2007) suggests that it is more likely that large herd owners from communal areaswill practise an adapted version of transhumance, that involves movement between the oldcommons and the new (semi-privatised) commons. This is similar to the seasonalmovement between private farms in the summer and winter rainfall zones practised bylarge-scale commercial farmers.Given the real obstacles facing would-be commercial livestock producers, as outlined by

Anseeuw and Laurent (2007), it seems unlikely that either agricultural developmentprogrammes or land reform in Namaqualand will promote significant levels ofcommercialisation of livestock systems in communal areas, or, for that matter, the growthof a new black commercial farming class within the region more broadly. The currentprofile of three broad types of farmer (small-scale, part-time producers in communal areas;a few larger herd-owners making use of both the old commons and new land reform farms;and a gradually diminishing group of large-scale, commercial farmers) is likely to bereproduced. Dramatic shifts in agricultural policies and the economics of livestockproduction (e.g. the opening up of new markets) would be required to alter this trajectory.Given a more sympathetic stance by government towards small-scale, part-time and

semi-commercial livestock production, however, substantial development support for thisgroup could see improvements in their productivity and income, contributing to povertyreduction. Such support could take the form of infrastructure (water points), assistance forco-operative marketing initiatives, access to reserve grazing (e.g. on redistributed land)during droughts, subsidies for the poor to acquire animals to begin herd-building, andsupport for local institutional development aimed at more effective management of thecommons. Strategies to prevent elite capture of such initiatives would have to be put inplace for them to have real impacts on the incomes of small herd owners.Even if land reform and agricultural development efforts in Namaqualand were to be re-

focused in these ways, however, they are unlikely to make major impacts on the characterof livelihoods of the majority. De-agrarianisation of rural livelihoods, as Seekings andNattrass (2005) point out, has been integral to the growth path and ‘distributional regime’of South Africa in both the apartheid and post-apartheid periods, and Namaqualand wellillustrates the shift over time away from land-based livelihoods towards dependence by themajority of households on wages, remittances and social grants. Ultimately, povertyreduction programmes in Namaqualand will have to rely for the most part on livelihoodoptions other than agricultural production, and for many this will mean livelihoodslocated outside of the region. In the medium term, however, the livelihoods of most peopleare likely to continue to involve multiple activities that combine urban and rural incomesources, risk aversion, and participation in localised social networks. There is clearly animportant role for livestock farming as part of the mix.In comparative perspective, Campbell et al. (2002) suggest that the determining effect of

exogenous forces, and of rainfall and the macro-economy in particular, is characteristic of

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semi-arid regions in Southern Africa more broadly. A crucial determinant of livelihoodsuccess or failure in such areas is access to remittance income, which drives socialdifferentiation and influences access to productive assets. Other key drivers of changeare institutional arrangements and demographic processes, including the impacts of theHIV/AIDS pandemic. This analysis resonates with many of the research findings fromNamaqualand reported in this collection, as does Campbell et al.’s (2002) argument thatdespite the generally somewhat gloomy prognosis for development efforts in semi-aridregions, ‘there are things that can be done’ (Campbell et al., 2002, p. 139). They list thefollowing development interventions as worthy of attention: strengthening institutions andorganisations; land redistribution; labour-saving devices; supporting diversification;gardening for food security and cash; extension for small livestock such as poultry; andan integrated approach to development.

In Namaqualand too, the analytic emphasis on exogenous drivers of change does notmean that efforts to improve livelihoods through the redistribution of productive assetsand local development projects must be abandoned. Key to the success of these efforts,however, is the paradigmatic understanding of local realities of development agents. Asoutlined in this collection, inappropriate models of land use and livelihoods in communalareas, based on paradigms transposed from the commercial farming sector, tend todominate the thinking and practice of both government and civil society organisations atpresent. If they continue to do so, the trajectory of change in Namaqualand is likely todisadvantage the rural poor much more than it needs to. The research findings reported inthis collection might, however, contribute to shifts in the mindsets of decision makers andhelp open up new opportunities for a pro-poor rural development and land reformprogramme. Biodiversity conservation in relation to climate change adaptation should beseen as an opportunity to bring new thinking and fresh solutions to old problems. Thiscollection of papers provides some of the research necessary to carry out the long-termprocess of social and economic transformation of Namaqualand without compromisingthe ecological integrity of the region.

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Anderson, P.M.L., Hoffman, M.T., 2007. The impacts of sustained heavy grazing on plant diversity and

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Anseeuw, W., Laurent, C., 2007. Occupational paths towards commercial agriculture: the key role of farm

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Carrick, P.J., Kruger, R., 2007. Restoring degraded landscapes in lowland Namaqualand: lessons from the mining

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