A survey of results prediction and rating of the performance of President Jakaya Kikwete by Mbeya...

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1 MEDIA SURVEY –“PEOPLE’S OPINIONS, INTERESTS AND PRIORITIES FOR 2010 ELECTIONS” MBEYA URBAN, SURVEY CONDUCTED BY ELIAS MHEGERA, JOURNALIST AND MEDIA CONSULTANT MEDIA EXPRESS, ON BEHALF OF HAKIELIMU@ JUNE 2010

Transcript of A survey of results prediction and rating of the performance of President Jakaya Kikwete by Mbeya...

MEDIA SURVEY –“PEOPLE’S OPINIONS, INTERESTSAND PRIORITIES FOR 2010 ELECTIONS” MBEYA

URBAN, SURVEY CONDUCTED BY ELIAS MHEGERA, JOURNALIST AND MEDIA CONSULTANT MEDIA EXPRESS, ON BEHALF OF HAKIELIMU@

JUNE 2010

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MEDIA SURVEY –“PEOPLE’S OPINIONS, INTERESTS ANDPRIORITIES FOR 2010 ELECTIONS” MBEYA URBAN,

SURVEY CONDUCTED BY ELIASMHEGERA, JOURNALIST AND MEDIA CONSULTANT MEDIA EXPRESS, ON BEHALF OF HAKIELIMU@

JUNE 2010

TEL: 0754-826272Email: [email protected]

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

CCM Chama Cha Mapinduzi

BOA Bank of Africa

CRDB Cooperative Rural Development Bank

NBC National Bank of Commerce

NMB National Microfinance Bank

FM Frequency Modulation

TEKU Teofilo Kisanji University

CBA Commercial Bank of Africa

MKUKUTA Mkakati wa Kukuza Uchumi na Kupunguza UmaskiniTanzania

TUCTA Trade Union Congress of Tanzania

KJ Kikosi cha Jeshi (Military base)

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TANU Tanganyika African National Union

Table of Contents

i. Introduction ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.1

ii. General observations……………………………………………...2

iii.Survey findings …………………………………………………...3

iv. Factors that might have influenced these results …………………4

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v. Summary of issues not covered in the media ……………………..5

vi. Conclusions, summary of the findings ……………………………6

vii.Recommendations…………………………………………………7

List of interviewees……………………………………………10

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A TANU MONUMENT IN MBEYA

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1. IntroductionThis report is based on findings of a survey that wasconducted for five consecutive days from 4th to 8th June. Itfollows interviews of 30 people within the Mbeya City, fromdifferent religious denominations and age groups.

The main motive was to know how Mbeya residents feel abouttheir government, their perception in politics, how theyrate the performance of the incumbent government for thepast five years, and if at all they think that the centralgovernment had fulfilled the promises that it had madeduring the political campaigns in the prior campaigns of thein 2005 General Elections.

The survey also wanted to know people’s feelings on policiesthat have been adapted by the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi(CCM), if they worked hand in hand with the electionmanifesto, in regard to empowering the youths, provision ofemployment opportunities, and handling of the rural sectorand agriculture in general. Moreover the study also wantedto understand if at all people appreciate or for thatmatter, they are not satisfied that the government has madeserious attempts to improve their lives, particularly ofworkers and peasants who are the majority in this country.

The interviewees had an occasion to identify the mainsources of the pitfalls on whatever they had identified asthe main sources of problems. The survey also identifiedavailable opportunities in Mbeya which could support thegovernment sources of revenues. These are to do with newinvestments in the area, or enhancement of the existing onesin this area. Thus, the survey also took into considerationavailability of natural resources, and whether they havebeen utilized fully or not.

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According to this survey, Mbeya City being one of the fourcities in Tanzania; is probably the fourth largest after Dares Salaam, Mwanza, and Tanga. To a certain extent the cityis still dominated by the government sector if it was to berated in terms of investments. As such there are fewinvestments from the private sector particularly banks likeBOA, CBA, NBC, CRDB, NMB, Barclays, Exim Bank and industrieslike Mbeya Cement.

The study that was conducted for five days, June 4 to 8, wasmainly centred in the city wards. So far the city has 36wards but the main commercial activities are located in SokoMatola, Mwanjelwa, Soweto, Itiji, Forest, Sisimba, Mabatini,Uyole and Sai. The survey was conducted in a city whoseresidents can be ranked as one of the most conscious peoplealthough they have not realized that they posses such aunique quality.

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A FRIEND OF EDUCATION BASED IN MBEYA JOHNSON MWAKATOBE

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2. General observations

Mbeya City-Brief Description

The city has modern facilities like the regional andreferral hospital, secondary schools, stadium, internetcafes, modern tourist hotels, and a ready made market forthe available consumerist society mainly by a small class ofthe city based elites.

There is reliable electricity, which to a certain extent hasalso facilitated in the improvement of other developmentslike infrastructure and water supply, which is so vital forhospital purposes. All basic resources and social serviceamenities are concentrated in the city therefore this hascontributed largely to the high rural-urban migration, andMbeya city has not escaped this trend. In Mwanjelwa thereare large groups of desperate youths who seem to have beendisillusioned by the city life style.

The city has six private radio stations; five of them aremost active, namely; Bomba FM, Generation FM, Baraka FM,Mbeya Radio FM, and Sweet FM. In sports the city and theregion in general has once hosted teams like Tukuyu Stars,Prisons, Karume Rangers, 44 KJ, and Tiger. These have in away livened the city due to influxes of sport lovers duringthe crucial football matches.

Due to a combination of these issues people are generallyexposed and sensitive to the happenings in this country.Coincidentally it was in Mwanjelwa suburb of the city wherein June 2008 the youths in Mwanjelwa booed to thepresidential entourage, a sign of dissatisfaction at whatthe government is delivering to them.

The youngsters showed their dissatisfaction by recalling thestate of affairs through their slogans, while they chanted

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in unison corruption, corruption!, corruption! They intendedto show the president that he is not doing enough to curbgrand larceny in this country. This survey detected that these feelings of dissatisfactionare still there. Mbeya residents criticized the governmentfor its failure to construct even a single university or anyhigher learning institution in the region. Currently thereis a single university, Teophilo Kisanji University (TEKU),which has been set up by the Moravian church. They however generally thanked some private bankinginstitutions which have supported the region’s developmentefforts by investing in it, leading to a good regional banksector. They would have expected the government to expandits investment in the mining sector in order to create moreemployment opportunities locally.

“We do have the Kiwira Coal Mines, and many gold reserveswhich could improve the living standards of Mbeya residentsthrough commercial activity and employment opportunities,”reported one of the interviewees.

1. Survey findings

According to the survey in which 30 people were interviewed,60 percent graded President Kikwete’s performance below 50percent, while 40 percent graded him above 50. The statistics stand as follows: one person graded him with11-20 percent, four graded him with 21-30 percent, and sixgraded him at 31-40 percent, while seven graded him at 41-50percent. On the other hand, four graded him at 51-60 percent, fourgraded him at 61-70, while three graded him at 71-80 percentand one person graded him at 81-90 percent.

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The modal class according to this study was seven peoplewith 41-50 percent. The modal class constitutes 21 percentof the interviewed sample. As to what the incumbent president will garner during theforthcoming general elections, the results were more or lessthe same if the national electoral commission were to dojustice, and if the competition environment were to be fair. Generally, interviewees gave President Kikwete victory with70 percent. They graded their incumbent Member ofParliament, Benson Mwailugula Mpesya at 40 percent. There were variations on how they graded their councilors,while they graded themselves at 40 percent in terms of theircivic awareness.

They attributed this grading in the performance of PresidentKikwete as being a product of lack of support from his aideswhich has led to the unsatisfying performance of the FourthPhase Government. The sample of the interviewees, from different age groups,social strata and religious inclinations, included civilservants like teachers, nurses, drivers, secondary schoolstudents (A-level) and university students.

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ABDUL NCHALIKWAO, MBEYA RESIDENT

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On what went well with the Fourth Phase Government Interviews accepted that there are some positivedevelopments in terms of infrastructural development,particularly construction of roads, schools, and modernbuildings, although at a low speed in comparison to theThird Phase Government. President Kikwete was lauded for hisgood treatment of leaders of opposition political parties,and that he has opened a space for vibrant discussion inboth the media and informed forums. He is also lauded for his commitment to sports as reflectedby the employment of an international stature Taifa Starscoach, Marcio Maximo who left this country in the same yearafter expiration of his contract. The president was alsopraised by a segment of women interviewees for the fact hehas been in the forefront to ensure that there is moregender parity, by employing and appointing some women in keygovernment positions as judges, ministers, ambassadors etc. The main Kikwete government’s weaknesses Of the interviewee sample, 60 percent criticize thegovernment in general and President Kikwete in particularfor having made an enormous amount of promises which couldnot be fulfilled. The percentage of those who criticized foreign trips by thepresident stood at 30 percent of the interviewees, whilethose who criticized him for inaction against those who havebeen implicated in grand corruption scandals stood at 60percent. However interviewees were optimistic that President Kikwetewill still win in the forthcoming general elections later inthat year due to the fact that the general management ofelections still favour the ruling party and that the levelof civic awareness is still very low.

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One person said that Kikwete will score 21-30 percent of thevotes; three said that he will score 41-50, while nine saidthat he will score 51-60, six said that he will win by 61-70, nine said that he will win by 71-80, and two indicatedthat he will win by 81-90 percent. According to the survey, the extent of fulfillment wasjudged according to one’s wellbeing in their activity,whether in the public sector or in the private sector. For instance employees were not satisfied about thegovernment’s promise to improve their life through paymentof good salaries that match their demands. This was repeatedby all the civil servants that were interviewed during thissurvey. For the entrepreneurs, their cry was that the tax regime isunfriendly and that the road infrastructure did not undergofundamental changes. They were also expecting PresidentKikwete to manage the economy well and curb inflation, whichthey say his government did not. Mbeya residents wereunsatisfied about the fact that they do not realize profitsin their businesses sufficiently to be able to re-investwhatever they gain from their businesses. “We do have Mbeya Cement within our close range but we cannot construct new buildings because of high prices ofconstruction materials, including cement”, complained oneentrepreneur. They also commented that the CCM governmenthad failed to implement the poverty reduction strategy(MKUKUTA), and for the Muslims the introduction of theIslamic Kadhi court, which was part of the CCM electionmanifesto during the 2005 general elections.

2. Factors that might have influenced these results

The level of civic awareness is comparatively very high,although the residents in that area do not realize this.

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Probably this level of awareness has been contributed to bytheir access to the media. According to this survey, there are five Mbeya-based radios;three of them run programmes on civic education namely;Bomba FM, Generation FM, and Baraka FM. Mbeya urban is one of the constituencies which elected amember of parliament from the opposition, one PolisyaMwaiseje, against the CCM candidate, the late Bruno Mpangalain 1995. The city enjoys a cosmopolitan life style with a big numberof visitors from neighboring countries, like Burundi,Rwanda, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Hence the level of lifestyle reflects that there is a bigmiddle class from the urban elite: employees in the civilservice, private legal practitioners, bankers, industrialworkers and the entrepreneurs who have access toinformation. There is growing disappointment from the cityresidents about the appointment of the regional commissionerJohn Mwakipesile, who lost to Dr Harrison Mwakyembe in Kyelaat the 2005 general elections. Although the regional commissioner is lauded for his goodwork, some city residents feel as if he is focused more onrecapturing the Kyela seat than on working for his region asa whole. Mbeya residents, who include a big segment of civilservants, admit that they were irked by President Kikwete’sspeech against the Trade Union Congress of Tanzania (TUCTA)particulary its Secretary General Nicholas Mgaya, on May 3, 2010.

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MS JESTINA NYONDO - MBEYA BASED TEACHER

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5. Summary of issues not covered in the media

Mbeya residents feels the pinch of hard life just like inany other cities that have been hard-hit by the globalfinancial crunch in so many ways. For instance, civilservants cannot afford the fast-rocketing prices, whichmeans they have to look for other sources of income in orderto support their families. They are quite aware of inflationand unmet workers’ demands. The recent speech by President Jakaya Kikwete against theTrade Union Congress of Tanzania (TUCTA) on May 3,demoralized workers to large extent, the fast growing cityof Mbeya, is now becoming the centre of the SouthernHighlands, since it caters for other neighboring regions andfor non-Tanzanians, who frequently cross Mbeya’s borders ontheir travels to and from Dar es Salaam.

To a large extent Mbeya residents have a feeling that theyhave not yet been well accommodated in the governing oftheir country. There is a general feeling that the government has not yetexpanded its investment in the region, and that the miningsector has not yet been exploited fully in order to createmore employment opportunities.

They do have a feeling that projects like the Kiwira CoalMines and many gold reserves which could improve the livingstandards of Mbeya residents through commercial activity andemployment opportunities are left unattended by the centralgovernment. But most importantly is a hidden fact that Mbeyaresidents seem likely to pose a stiff challenge andopposition to the incumbent national leader, PresidentJakaya Kikwete in the forthcoming general elections if theirdemands are not taken seriously.

6. Conclusion; Summary of the findings

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A good number of promises that President Kikwete made werenot fulfilled. Civil servants like teachers continued to beneglected as it has been the tradition for quite sometimenow. Frequent changes of the syllabus affect the teachingpattern leading to a poor performance generally PresidentKikwete’s performance’s has not satisfied Mbeya residents.

Also there is a general feeling that youngsters have morecivic awareness than their elder counterparts. It entailsthe civil society to be empowered in order to improve thelevel of civic awareness. Many interviewees said that theyexpect that CCM will get the same results as in 2005, simplybecause the competition ground does not give equalopportunities(level play), they claimed that there is usageof the Police Force in favour of the ruling party, and thatthe National Electoral Commission is biased as it favoursthe ruling party.

There were general complains that the tax regime is unfairto workers while the National Insurance which is mandatoryhas not helped anyhow to resolve their problems when itcomes into getting medical services, many youngsters arestill in the streets a sign that all is not going well intheir lives. There is a general acceptance that the mediahas been so helpful in revealing corruption scandals.

7. Recommendations

The central government should establish more higher learninginstitutions so as to reduce congestion in Dar es Salaam,where there is a big number of such institutions. Mbeya hasa friendly climate for learning purposes security isguaranteed, roads are passable throughout the year, sothere’s a need to invite investors.

Mbeya residents are quite aware of higher level politics inthis country; they would like to see one of their co-citizens from this region holding the reins of power. They

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should be motivated if the government aims to realize highlevel performance. There is a need to establish newgovernment projects that are viable according to the city’sinfrastructure and ability. Probably the best entry point isthrough tertiary education, industries, health, and tourism.

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List of interviewees

1. Deusidedit John Lwamlema, (51)2. Ms Jane Lawa (61).3. Jestina Nyondo (50)4. Elizabeth Ismail (18)5. Thomas Kasombwe (51) 6. Johnson Mwakatobe (40)7. David Alison (30)8. Felix Mwakyembe (53)9. Chuma Amos (44)10. Moses Ng’wati (32) 11. Ambwene Mwanjwongo( 24)12. Ismail Ntaala (62)13. Khalfan Kisegolo (38) 14. Hamad Omari (24)15. Idrissa Salim (30) 16. Ali Mdachi (64) 17. Badru Khalid (38)18. Karim Mbonde (43)19. Abdul Malik (35)20. Khalfan Juma (40) 21. Hamad Hassan ( 65)22. Abdallah Salim (46)23. Miraji Yusufu (40) 24. Hassan Mbarazi (35) 25. Ngovu Bedson (51)26. Rose Mwakingu (54) 27. John Mwakibete28. Name: Did not disclose ( 59) 29. Abdul Nchalikwao ( 67) years

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30. Adil Mayembo (28)

Anecdotes to be noted

1. The number of Muslims that were interviewed was 15,while again those of Christians were 15 so it was ahalf-half divide. 50 percent from each religion.

2. The predictions rating of President Kikwete for the2010 on how he could win or lose in the GeneralElections were as follows;

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Win/lose rating Number of people11-20 0021-30 0131-40 0041-50 0351-60 0961-70 0671-80 0981-90 0291-100 00

Eventually Presdent Kikwete secured on 62.8 % in the2010 elections at the time of conducting thisresearch Dr Willbrod Slaa had not yet announced hisintention to contest so Kikwete was rated at 70 % byMbeya residents. Dr Slaa scored 27 % while ProfIbrahim Lipumba scored 8.3 %

About surveyor Elias Mhegera who conducted this survey is a formerteacher and journalist. At the time of this survey onbehalf of HakiElimu he was a features editor with aweekly newspaper The Express. He holds a BA(ED) inhistory and political science from the University ofDar es Salaam, and a Postgraduate Diploma (PGD) in

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international relations and diplomacy at the Centre forForeign Relations in Kurasini Dar es Salaam. This studywas also conducted while he was attending a Masters ofArts in Mass Communications at the St. AugustineUniversity of Tanzania (SAUT), Dar es Salaam campus.

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