tugas kasus ifm blade
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Transcript of tugas kasus ifm blade
Case 14
1. In the given scenario, sales from the existing agreement should not be included in the
capital budgeting analysis. The reason being is that Blades would have these sales with
or without the subsidiary in Thailand. The cost savings for the pairs not sourced from
Thailand should be included because these sales would not happen if Blades continued
to import from Thailand. Finally, the sales resulting from a renewed agreement should be
included in the capital budgeting analysis because this revenue is incremental to creating
2. See spreadsheet. Blades should establish the subsidiary in Thailand under the given
conditions. The capital budgeting analysis shows a positive NPV if Blades renews the
agreement with Entertainment Products and establishes the subsidiary
3. See spreadsheet. The capital budgeting analysis indicates that Blades should establish a
subsidiary and not renew its agreement. The NPV was $8,746,688
4. See spreadsheet. The salvage value is not that critical. The capital budgeting analysis in
question 2 is the most feasible alternative. As spreadsheet suggests (comparing question
3 and question 4), even if Blades’ salvage value is reduced to 0 (Blades does not sell the
subsidiary), the NPV remains positive.
5. See spreadsheet. The capital budgeting analysis shows a positive NPV of $5,620,315 for
the worst case scenario. Therefore, Blades should establish the subsidiary even if baht
depreciates by 5 percent annually.
Capital
Budgeting
Analysis
PROBLE
M # 2Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
Demand -
Entertain
ment
Products
180 180 180 180 180 180
Price per
unit - baht4.594 4.594 4.594 4.594 4.594 4.594
Revenue
from
agreement
0826,920,0
00
826,920,0
00
826,920,0
00
826,920,0
00
826,920,0
00
826,920,0
00
Other
retailers120 120 220 220 220 220 220
Price per
unit - baht5 5.6 6.272 7.025 7.868 8.812 9.869
Revenue
from other
retailers
600,000,0
00
672,000,0
00
1,379,840,
000
1,545,420,
800
1,730,871,
296
1,938,575,
852
2,171,204,
954
Total
revenue
600,000,0
00
1,498,920,
000
2,206,760,
000
2,372,340,
800
2,557,791,
296
2,765,495,
852
2,998,124,
954
Variable
cost per
unit
3.5 3.92 4.39 4.917 5.507 6.168 6.908
Total
variable
cost
420,000,0
00
1,176,000,
000
1,756,160,
000
1,966,899,
200
2,202,927,
104
2,467,278,
356
2,763,351,
759
Less: cost
savings
32,400,00
0
Other
fixed
expenses
25,000,00
0
28,000,00
0
31,360,00
0
35,123,20
0
39,337,98
4
44,058,54
2
49,345,56
7
Depreciati
on
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
Total
expenses
442,600,0
00
1,234,000,
000
1,817,520,
000
2,032,022,
400
2,272,265,
088
2,541,336,
899
2,842,697,
326
EBT of
susidiary
157,400,0
00
264,920,0
00
389,240,0
00
340,318,4
00
285,526,2
08
224,158,9
53
155,427,6
27
Host
governme
nt tax
(25%)
39,350,00
0
66,230,00
0
97,310,00
0
85,079,60
0
71,381,55
2
56,039,73
8
38,856,90
7
After tax
earnings
of
subsidiary
118,050,0
00
198,690,0
00
291,930,0
00
255,238,8
00
214,144,6
56
168,119,2
15
116,570,7
20
NCF to
subsidiary
148,050,0
00
228,690,0
00
321,930,0
00
285,238,8
00
244,144,6
56
198,119,2
15
146,570,7
20
Baht
remitted
by
susidiary
148,050,0
00
228,690,0
00
321,930,0
00
285,238,8
00
244,144,6
56
198,119,2
15
146,570,7
20
Witholdin
g tax on
remitted
funds
(10%)
14,805,00
0
22,869,00
0
32,193,00
0
28,523,88
0
24,414,46
6
19,811,92
1
14,657,07
2
Baht
remitted
after
witholding
taxes
133,245,0
00
205,821,0
00
289,737,0
00
256,714,9
20
219,730,1
90
178,307,2
93
131,913,6
48
Salvage
value
Exchange
rate - baht0.02300 0.02254 0.02209 0.02165 0.02121 0.02079 0.02037 0.01997
CF to
parent3,003,342 4,546,421 6,272,057 5,446,070 4,568,230 3,632,900 2,633,905
PV of
parent CF
(25%
discount
rate)
2,402,674 2,909,710 3,211,293 2,230,710 1,496,918 952.343 552.37
Initial
investment
by parent
12,650,00
0
Cumulativ
e PV
-
10,247,32
6
-7,337,617 -4,126,323 -1,895,613 -398.695 553.648 1,106,018
PROBLE
M # 3Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
Demand -
Entertain
ment
Products
5 5 5 5 5 5
Price per
unit - baht5.6 6.272 7.025 7.868 8.812 9.869
Revenue
from
agreement
028,000,00
0
31,360,00
0
35,123,20
0
39,337,98
4
44,058,54
2
49,345,56
7
Other
retailers120 120 220 220 220 220 220
Price per
unit - baht5 5.6 6.272 7.025 7.868 8.812 9.869
Revenue
from other
retailers
600,000,0
00
672,000,0
00
1,379,840,
000
1,545,420,
800
1,730,871,
296
1,938,575,
852
2,171,204,
954
Total
revenue
600,000,0
00
700,000,0
00
1,411,200,
000
1,580,544,
000
1,770,209,
280
1,982,634,
394
2,220,550,
521
Variable
cost per
unit
3.5 3.92 4.39 4.917 5.507 6.168 6.908
Total
variable
cost
420,000,0
00
490,000,0
00
987,840,0
00
1,106,380,
800
1,239,146,
496
1,387,844,
076
1,554,385,
365
Less: cost
savings
32,400,00
0
Other
fixed
expenses
25,000,00
0
28,000,00
0
31,360,00
0
35,123,20
0
39,337,98
4
44,058,54
2
49,345,56
7
Depreciati
on
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
Total
expenses
442,600,0
00
548,000,0
00
1,049,200,
000
1,171,504,
000
1,308,484,
480
1,461,902,
618
1,633,730,
932
EBT of
susidiary
157,400,0
00
152,000,0
00
362,000,0
00
409,040,0
00
461,724,8
00
520,731,7
76
586,819,5
89
Host
governme
nt tax
(25%)
39,350,00
0
38,000,00
0
90,500,00
0
102,260,0
00
115,431,2
00
130,182,9
44
146,704,8
97
After tax
earnings
of
subsidiary
118,050,0
00
114,000,0
00
271,500,0
00
306,780,0
00
346,293,6
00
390,548,8
32
440,114,6
92
NCF to
subsidiary
148,050,0
00
144,000,0
00
301,500,0
00
336,780,0
00
376,293,6
00
420,548,8
32
470,114,6
92
Baht
remitted
by
susidiary
148,050,0
00
144,000,0
00
301,500,0
00
336,780,0
00
376,293,6
00
420,548,8
32
470,114,6
92
Witholdin
g tax on
remitted
funds
(10%)
14,805,00
0
14,400,00
0
30,150,00
0
33,678,00
0
37,629,36
0
42,054,88
3
47,011,46
9
Baht
remitted
after
witholding
taxes
133,245,0
00
129,600,0
00
271,350,0
00
303,102,0
00
338,664,2
40
378,493,9
49
423,103,2
23
Salvage
value
Exchange
rate - baht0.02300 0.02254 0.02209 0.02165 0.02121 0.02079 0.02037 0.01997
CF to
parent3,003,342 2,862,760 5,874,026 6,430,148 7,040,890 7,711,578 8,448,054
PV of
parent CF
(25%
discount
rate)
2,402,674 1,832,167 3,007,501 2,633,788 2,307,159 2,021,544 1,771,685
Initial
investment
by parent
12,650,00
0
Cumulativ
e PV
-
10,247,32
6
-8,415,160 -5,407,658 -2,773,870 -466.711 1,554,833 3,326,518
PROBLE
M # 4Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
Demand -
Entertain
ment
Products
5 5 5 5 5 5
Price per
unit - baht5.6 6.272 7.025 7.868 8.812 9.869
Revenue
from
agreement
028,000,00
0
31,360,00
0
35,123,20
0
39,337,98
4
44,058,54
2
49,345,56
7
Other
retailers120 120 220 220 220 220 220
Price per
unit - baht5 5.6 6.272 7.025 7.868 8.812 9.869
Revenue
from other
retailers
600,000,0
00
672,000,0
00
1,379,840,
000
1,545,420,
800
1,730,871,
296
1,938,575,
852
2,171,204,
954
Total
revenue
600,000,0
00
700,000,0
00
1,411,200,
000
1,580,544,
000
1,770,209,
280
1,982,634,
394
2,220,550,
521
Variable
cost per
unit
3.5 3.92 4.39 4.917 5.507 6.168 6.908
Total
variable
cost
420,000,0
00
490,000,0
00
987,840,0
00
1,106,380,
800
1,239,146,
496
1,387,844,
076
1,554,385,
365
Less: cost
savings
32,400,00
0
Other
fixed
expenses
25,000,00
0
28,000,00
0
31,360,00
0
35,123,20
0
39,337,98
4
44,058,54
2
49,345,56
7
Depreciati
on
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
Total
expenses
442,600,0
00
548,000,0
00
1,049,200,
000
1,171,504,
000
1,308,484,
480
1,461,902,
618
1,633,730,
932
EBT of
susidiary
157,400,0
00
152,000,0
00
362,000,0
00
409,040,0
00
461,724,8
00
520,731,7
76
586,819,5
89
Host
governme
nt tax
(25%)
39,350,00
0
38,000,00
0
90,500,00
0
102,260,0
00
115,431,2
00
130,182,9
44
146,704,8
97
After tax
earnings
of
subsidiary
118,050,0
00
114,000,0
00
271,500,0
00
306,780,0
00
346,293,6
00
390,548,8
32
440,114,6
92
NCF to
subsidiary
148,050,0
00
144,000,0
00
301,500,0
00
336,780,0
00
376,293,6
00
420,548,8
32
470,114,6
92
Baht
remitted
by
susidiary
148,050,0
00
144,000,0
00
301,500,0
00
336,780,0
00
376,293,6
00
420,548,8
32
470,114,6
92
Witholdin
g tax on
remitted
funds
(10%)
14,805,00
0
14,400,00
0
30,150,00
0
33,678,00
0
37,629,36
0
42,054,88
3
47,011,46
9
Baht
remitted
after
witholding
taxes
133,245,0
00
129,600,0
00
271,350,0
00
303,102,0
00
338,664,2
40
378,493,9
49
423,103,2
23
Salvage
value
Exchange
rate - baht0.02300 0.02254 0.02209 0.02165 0.02121 0.02079 0.02037 0.01997
CF to
parent3,003,342 2,862,760 5,874,026 6,430,148 7,040,890 7,711,578 8,448,054
PV of
parent CF
(25%
discount
rate)
2,402,674 1,832,167 3,007,501 2,633,788 2,307,159 2,021,544 1,771,685
Initial
investment
by parent
12,650,00
0
Cumulativ
e PV
-
10,247,32
6
-8,415,160 -5,407,658 -2,773,870 -466.711 1,554,833 3,326,518
PROBLE
M # 5Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
Demand -
Entertain
ment
Products
5 5 5 5 5 5
Price per
unit - baht5.6 6.272 7.025 7.868 8.812 9.869
Revenue
from
agreement
028,000,00
0
31,360,00
0
35,123,20
0
39,337,98
4
44,058,54
2
49,345,56
7
Other
retailers120 120 220 220 220 220 220
Price per
unit - baht5 5.6 6.272 7.025 7.868 8.812 9.869
Revenue
from other
retailers
600,000,0
00
672,000,0
00
1,379,840,
000
1,545,420,
800
1,730,871,
296
1,938,575,
852
2,171,204,
954
Total
revenue
600,000,0
00
700,000,0
00
1,411,200,
000
1,580,544,
000
1,770,209,
280
1,982,634,
394
2,220,550,
521
Variable
cost per
unit
3.5 3.92 4.39 4.917 5.507 6.168 6.908
Total
variable
cost
420,000,0
00
490,000,0
00
987,840,0
00
1,106,380,
800
1,239,146,
496
1,387,844,
076
1,554,385,
365
Less: cost
savings
32,400,00
0
Other
fixed
expenses
25,000,00
0
28,000,00
0
31,360,00
0
35,123,20
0
39,337,98
4
44,058,54
2
49,345,56
7
Depreciati
on
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
Total
expenses
442,600,0
00
548,000,0
00
1,049,200,
000
1,171,504,
000
1,308,484,
480
1,461,902,
618
1,633,730,
932
EBT of
susidiary
157,400,0
00
152,000,0
00
362,000,0
00
409,040,0
00
461,724,8
00
520,731,7
76
586,819,5
89
Host
governme
nt tax
(25%)
39,350,00
0
38,000,00
0
90,500,00
0
102,260,0
00
115,431,2
00
130,182,9
44
146,704,8
97
After tax
earnings
of
subsidiary
118,050,0
00
114,000,0
00
271,500,0
00
306,780,0
00
346,293,6
00
390,548,8
32
440,114,6
92
NCF to
subsidiary
148,050,0
00
144,000,0
00
301,500,0
00
336,780,0
00
376,293,6
00
420,548,8
32
470,114,6
92
Baht
remitted
by
susidiary
148,050,0
00
144,000,0
00
301,500,0
00
336,780,0
00
376,293,6
00
420,548,8
32
470,114,6
92
Witholdin
g tax on
remitted
funds
(10%)
14,805,00
0
14,400,00
0
30,150,00
0
33,678,00
0
37,629,36
0
42,054,88
3
47,011,46
9
Baht
remitted
after
witholding
taxes
133,245,0
00
129,600,0
00
271,350,0
00
303,102,0
00
338,664,2
40
378,493,9
49
423,103,2
23
Salvage
value
Exchange
rate - baht0.02300 0.02185 0.02076 0.01972 0.01873 0.01780 0.01691 0.01606
CF to
parent2,911,403 2,690,172 5,350,920 5,678,205 6,027,194 6,399,240 6,795,781
PV of
parent CF
(25%
discount
rate)
2,329,123 1,721,710 2,739,671 2,325,793 1,974,991 1,677,522 1,425,179
Initial
investment
by parent
12,650,00
0
Cumulativ
e PV
-
10,320,87
7
-8,599,167 -5,859,496 -3,533,703 -1,558,712 118.81 1,543,989
Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
180 180 180
4.594 4.594 4.594
826,920,0
00
826,920,0
00
826,920,0
00
220 220 220
11.053 12.38 13.865
2,431,749,
548
2,723,559,
494
3,050,386,
633
3,258,669,
548
3,550,479,
494
3,877,306,
633
7.737 8.666 9.706
3,094,953,
970
3,466,348,
447
3,882,310,
260
55,267,03
5
61,899,07
9
69,326,96
9
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
3,180,221,
006
3,558,247,
526
3,981,637,
229
78,448,54
3-7,768,032
-
104,330,5
96
19,612,13
6-1,942,008
-
26,082,64
9
58,836,40
7-5,826,024
-
78,247,94
7
88,836,40
7
24,173,97
6
-
48,247,94
7
88,836,40
7
24,173,97
6
-
48,247,94
7
8,883,641 2,417,398 -4,824,795
79,952,76
6
21,756,57
8
-
43,423,15
2
650,000,0
00
0.01957 0.01918 0.01879
1,564,480 417.20811,399,20
1
262.476 55.997 1,223,980
1,368,494 1,424,490 2,648,470
Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
5 5 5
11.053 12.38 13.865
55,267,03
5
61,899,07
9
69,326,96
9
220 220 220
11.053 12.38 13.865
2,431,749,
548
2,723,559,
494
3,050,386,
633
2,487,016,
583
2,785,458,
573
3,119,713,
602
7.737 8.666 9.706
1,740,911,
608
1,949,821,
001
2,183,799,
521
55,267,03
5
61,899,07
9
69,326,96
9
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
1,826,178,
644
2,041,720,
081
2,283,126,
490
660,837,9
40
743,738,4
93
836,587,1
12
165,209,4
85
185,934,6
23
209,146,7
78
495,628,4
55
557,803,8
69
627,440,3
34
525,628,4
55
587,803,8
69
657,440,3
34
525,628,4
55
587,803,8
69
657,440,3
34
52,562,84
5
58,780,38
7
65,744,03
3
473,065,6
09
529,023,4
82
591,696,3
00
650,000,0
00
0.01957 0.01918 0.01879
9,256,73510,144,65
9
23,334,79
4
1,553,022 1,361,593 2,505,554
4,879,541 6,241,134 8,746,688
Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
5 5 5
11.053 12.38 13.865
55,267,03
5
61,899,07
9
69,326,96
9
220 220 220
11.053 12.38 13.865
2,431,749,
548
2,723,559,
494
3,050,386,
633
2,487,016,
583
2,785,458,
573
3,119,713,
602
7.737 8.666 9.706
1,740,911,
608
1,949,821,
001
2,183,799,
521
55,267,03
5
61,899,07
9
69,326,96
9
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
1,826,178,
644
2,041,720,
081
2,283,126,
490
660,837,9
40
743,738,4
93
836,587,1
12
165,209,4
85
185,934,6
23
209,146,7
78
495,628,4
55
557,803,8
69
627,440,3
34
525,628,4
55
587,803,8
69
657,440,3
34
525,628,4
55
587,803,8
69
657,440,3
34
52,562,84
5
58,780,38
7
65,744,03
3
473,065,6
09
529,023,4
82
591,696,3
00
0
0.01957 0.01918 0.01879
9,256,73510,144,65
9
11,119,55
6
1,553,022 1,361,593 1,193,953
4,879,541 6,241,134 7,435,087
Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
5 5 5
11.053 12.38 13.865
55,267,03
5
61,899,07
9
69,326,96
9
220 220 220
11.053 12.38 13.865
2,431,749,
548
2,723,559,
494
3,050,386,
633
2,487,016,
583
2,785,458,
573
3,119,713,
602
7.737 8.666 9.706
1,740,911,
608
1,949,821,
001
2,183,799,
521
55,267,03
5
61,899,07
9
69,326,96
9
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
30,000,00
0
1,826,178,
644
2,041,720,
081
2,283,126,
490
660,837,9
40
743,738,4
93
836,587,1
12
165,209,4
85
185,934,6
23
209,146,7
78
495,628,4
55
557,803,8
69
627,440,3
34
525,628,4
55
587,803,8
69
657,440,3
34
525,628,4
55
587,803,8
69
657,440,3
34
52,562,84
5
58,780,38
7
65,744,03
3
473,065,6
09
529,023,4
82
591,696,3
00
650,000,0
00
0.01526 0.01450 0.01377
7,218,352 7,668,58517,099,33
7
1,211,039 1,029,260 1,836,027
2,755,027 3,784,287 5,620,315
Case 9
1. There are several ways Blades can benefit. Blades generates baht-denominated cash
inflows and then converts them to U.S. dollars. Forecasting the exchange rate may allow
Blades to make hedging decisions. Furthermore, it is mentioned that Blades may establish
a subsidiary in Thailand. If this was to happen, profits earned by this subsidiary will be
in baht. These earnings will then be sent back to the parent or reinvested in Thailand. In
both scenarios forecasting exchange rate is vital for company’s future.
2. A market-based forecast is the easiest to use because it is based on either spot rate or the
forward rate. In this case it would be better to use forward rates.
3. The forward rates would yield a better market-based forecast. It is said that the available
forward rates currently exhibit a large discount, which implies higher interest rate, which
then implies higher inflation. Higher inflation is associated with a downward pressure on
the baht, which is a valid forecast. Using the present spot rate to forecast future spot rate
would mean that the value of the baht would not fluctuate, which is not likely to happen.
4.
market-based forecast -
By using the forward rate market-based forecast it is shown that baht is expected to
change by -8.70 percent. The value of the baht in 90 days according to this forecast will
-0.08696
be $0.021.
5. Weekly accuracy of technical forecast indicates market inefficiency for the baht-dollar
exchange rates. Technical forecasting involves the use of historical exchange rate data to
predict future rates and mostly apply to very shot-term periods such as one day. Given
the conditions Thailand is in, examination of past movements will not be useful for
indicating future rates.
6.
fundamental forecast -
The expected change using the fundamental forecast is -6.85 percent.
-0.0685
forecasted value of the baht -
The forecasted value of the baht using the expected value as the forecast is $.0214.
absolute error- technical forecasting -
absolute error- fundamental forecasting -
absolute error- market-based forecasting -
0.021425
-0.01727
-0.02614
-0.04545
The absolute forecast errors are as follows: technical forecasting – 1.73%; fundamental
forecasting – 2.61%; and the market-based forecast – 4.54%. Observing given forecasting
techniques and their absolute errors the conclusion arises that the most accurate technique
is the technical forecasting.
7. It will not. As mentioned earlier, technical forecasting involves the use of historical
exchange rate data to predict future rates. Examination of past movements will
most likely not be as useful for indicating future rates in Thailand. There are a lot of
uncertainties when it comes to exchange rates in this country. There is a high volatility
of the baht-dollar exchange rate. In addition, Thai economy is experiencing unfavorable
conditions that will have an affect on exchange rates.
