Nama : Ridwan Fachrudin Dosen : Prof. Dr. Marimin, M.Sc.

NRP : F34120042

Kelas : K1

TUGAS ANALISIS SISTEM DAN PENGENDALIAN KEPUTUSAN

BAB 4

Bagian E. 1

1. Ketidakpastian dalam pengambilan keputusan disebabkan diantaranya oleh : Jawab : D. Keduanya (a dan b) benar

2. Pohon diagram dapat dipandang sebagai diagram alir dari titik-titik pertanyaan yang menuju pada sebuah keputusan. Dalam pohon keputusan terdapat dua symbol utama yaitu bujur sangkar yang melambangkan titik pengambilan keputusan dan lingkaran yang melambangkan :Jawab : B. kemungkinan kejadian yang dipertimbangkan

3. Pengambilan keputusan yang mengandung ketidakpastian dengan memperhatikan kejadian atas status pada masa yang akan datang selama memilih alternatif keputusan dapat dilakukan dengan metode :Jawab : D. Metode pada (a,b, dan c) semuanya dapat dipakai

4. Pengambilan keputusan dengan metode maximin berarti :Jawab : A. Prioritas alternatif keputusan diurut berdasar nilai keputusan yang diambil dari nilai maksimum dari nilai minimum payoff pada masing-masing alternatif keputusan.

5. Pengambilan keputusan dengan metode minimax berarti :Jawab : C. Prioritas alternatif keputusan diurut berdasar nilai keputusan yang diambil dari nilai minimum dari nilai maksimum payoff pada masing-masing alternatif keputusan.

Bagian E. 2

1. Diketahui peluang permintaan 0,1 untuk permintaan rendah, 0,5 untuk permintaan sedang, dan 0,4 untuk permintaan tinggi.Tabel payoff :

AlternatifLow Medium High

0,1 0,5 0,4

A. Subkontrak $10 $50 $90

B. Fasilitas baru -$120 $25 $200

C. Tidak melakukan apa-apa

$20 $40 $60

Rekomendasi keputusan dengan :1. Maximax

Max : $90, $200, $60

Terpilih max $200 keputusan membangun fasilitas baru

2. Maximin

Min : $10, -$120, $20

Max dari min : $20 keputusan tidak melakukan apa-apa

3. Minimax regret

A. $20-$10 = $10 $50-$50 = $0 $200-$90 = $110

B. $20-(-$120) = $140 $50-$25 = $25 $200-$200 = $0

C. $20-$20 = $0 $50-$40 = $10 $200-$60 = $140

Max : $140, $25, $140

Min dari max : $25 keputusan membangun fasilitas baru

4. Hurwich

α= 0,1 untuk permintaan rendah 0,5 untuk permintaan sedang, dan 0,4 untuk permintaan tinggi

A. $10(0,1) + $50(0,5) + $90(0,4) = $62B. -$120(0,1) + $25(0,5) + $200(0,4) = $80,5C. $20(0,1) + $40(0,5) + $60(0,4) = $46

Max : $80,5 keputusan membangun fasilitas baru

5. Equal likehood

Alternatif Low(0,1)

Medium(0,5)

High(0,4)

Total

A $10 $50 $90 (10*0,1+50*0,5+90*0,4) = $62

B -$120 $25 $200 (-120*0,1+25*0,5+200*0,4) = $80,5

C $20 $40 $60 (20*0,1+40*0,5+60*0,4) = $46

Max : $80,5 keputusan B membangun fasilitas baru

Kecil$168.000

Besar$480.000

Tinggi (0,6)$800.000

Rendah(0,4)$40.000

No Ekspansi$40.000

Rendah(0,4)$200.000

Tinggi(0,6)$280.000

Ekspansi$0

No Ekspansi$800.000

Ekspansi$0

No Ekspansi$0

Ekspansi$200.000

No Ekspansi$233.000

Ekspansi$280.000

2. Diagram pohon

$480.000

Rekomendasi berdasarkan diagram pohon adalah dengan membangun fasilitas besar.

3. Jumlah kejadian yang dapat dipertimbangkan dalam state of nature adalah dua kejadian. Dua kejadian tersebut adalah saat kondisi ekonomi baik (untung) dan saat kondisi ekonomi buruk (rugi).

4. Jumlah alternatif keputusan yang dapat dipertambingkan adalah 3 alternatif yaitu : Memperluas perusahaan Status quo Menjual perusahaan

5. Regret dalam minimax regret adalah penyesalan terhadap keputusan yang telah diambil dimana hasil dari keputusan yang diambil tersebut bukanlah pilihan yang tepat. Sehingga perlu memilih alternatif keputusan yang tidak benar-benar diinginkan untuk meminimalkan regret.

2. Diagram pohon

$1.000.000$200.000

$1.400.000

$2.790.000$1.990.000 $2.700.000

$3.300.000

$1.990.000

$450.000

$250.000

$210.000

Kesimpulan : keputusan yang tepat untuk diambil perusahaan adalah melakukan perluasan produksi palm oil saat kondisi ekonomi tidak tumbuh.

Memperluas produksi $800.000

$210.000Ekonomi tidak tumbuh

(0,4) $0

Membeli tanah baru$200.000

Ekonomi tumbuh(0,6) $0 $450.000

Ekonomi tidak tumbuh(0,4) $225.000

Ekonomi tumbuh(0,6) $2000.000

$600.000

$800.000

$1.000.000

$2.300.000

$700.000

$300.000

Nama : Ridwan Fachrudin Dosen : Prof. Dr. Marimin, M.Sc.

NRP : F34120042

Kelas : K1

TUGAS ANALISIS SISTEM DAN PENGENDALIAN KEPUTUSAN

Soal dari slide :

1. An ICT company wants to analyze the future of its business. There are 4 decision alternatives : expand the company, maintain status quo, decrease the business size up to 50% of the current size and sell the company. From the business analysis there will be two possibilities : good economic condition and bad economic condition. If the economic condition is good, the profit of the expansion will be Rp 900 million and only Rp 400 million when the economic condition is bad. If the economic condition is good, the profit of maintain status quo will be Rp 1.000 million and only Rp 50 million when the economic condition is bad. If the economic condition is good, the profit of decrease the business size will be Rp 600 million and only Rp 300 million when the economic condition is bad. When the company is sold the current price is Rp 350 million. Solve this decision problem by using maximax, maximin, minimax, hurwicz ( with alpha = 0,3) and Equal likehood. Based on the analysis provide your best suggestion.

Jawab :

AlternatifGood Economic

(Rp)Bad Economic (Rp)

Expand 900.000.000 400.000.000

Maintain status quo 1.000.000.000 50.000.000

Decrease business 600.000.000 300.000.000

Sell the company 350.000.000 350.000.000

a. MaximaxMax (900 million, 1000 million, 600 million, 350 million)Terpilih max : 1000 million maintain status quo

b. MaximinMin (400 million, 50 million, 300 million, 350 million)Terpilih max : 400 million melakukan ekspansi perusahaan

c. Minimax regret

Expand 900-1000 = -100 million 400-400 = 0 million

Status quo 1000-1000 = 0 million 50-400 = -350 million

Decrease business 600-1000 = -400 million 300-400 = -100 million

Sell the company 350-1000 = -650 million 350-400 = -50 million

Max : 0, 0, -100, -50.Min dari max : -50 menjual perusahaan

d. Hurwicz dengan alfa 0,3Good economic : 0,3 Bad economic : 0,7Expand : 900 (0,3) + 400 (0,7) = 550 millionStatus quo : 1000 (0,3) + 50 (0,7) = 335 millionDecrease business : 600 (0,3) + 300 (0,7) = 350 millionSell the company : 350 (0,3) + 350 (0,7) = 350 millionMax : 550 million ekspansi perusahaan

e. Equal Likehood alfa 0,5Expand : 900 (0,5) + 400 (0,5) = 650 millionStatus quo : 1000 (0,5) + 50 (0,5) = 525 millionDecrease business : 600 (0,5) + 300 (0,5) = 450 millionSell the company : 350 (0,5) + 350 (0,5) = 350 millionMax : 650 million ekspansi perusahaan

2. The palm oil based Futuristic company is considering two alternatives : to expand its existing production operation to manufacture a new line of derivative material; or to purchase land to construct a new facility on in the future. Each of these decisions has outcomes based on product market growth in the future that result in another set of decisions (during a ten-year planning horizon).The first decision facing the company is whether to expand or buy land. If the company expands, two states of nature are possible. Either the market will grow (with probability of 0,60) or it will not grow (with probability of 0,40). Either stste of nature will result in a payoff. On the other hand, if the company chooses to purchase land, three years in the future another decision will have to be mad regarding the development of the land.At decision node 1, the decision choices are to expand or to purchase land, that the cost of the ventures ($800,000 and $200,000 respectively). If the plant is expanded, two state of nature are possible at probability node 2 : the market will grow, with a probability of 0,60, or it will not grow with decline, with a probability of 0,40. If the

market grows, the company will achieve a payoff of $2,000,000 over a ten-year period. However, if no growth occurs, a payoff of only $225,000 will result.If the decision is to purchase land, two states of nature are possible at probability node 3. These are two states of nature and their probabilities are identical to these at node 2; however, the payoffs are different. If market growth occurs for a three-year period, no payoff will occur, but the company will make another decision at node 4 regarding development of the land. At that point, either the plant will be expended at a cost of $800,000 or the land will be sold, with a payoff of $450,000. The decision situation at node 4 can occur only if market growth occurs first. If there is no market growth occurs at node 3, there is no payoff, and another decision situation becomes necessary for $210,000. (Notice that the sale of the land result in less profit if there is no market growth then if there is growth).If the decision at decision node 4 is to expand, two states of nature are possible. the market may grow, with a probability of market growth is higher (and the probability of no growth iis lower) than before because there has already been growth for the first three years, as shown by the branch from node 3 to node 4. The payoffs for these two states of nature at the end of ten year period are $3,000,000 and $700,000.If the company decides to build a warehouse at node 5, then two states of nature can occurs. Market growth can occur, with a probability of 0,30 and an eventual payoff of $2,300,000, or no growth can occur, with a probability of 0,30 and an eventual payoff of $1,000,000. The probability of market growth is low (i.e. 0,30) because there has already been no market growth. Construct the decision tree structure and the solve the structure so you can suggest the company whether to expand or to purchase the land.