Top Down vs Bottom Up Forecast Gas Demand
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Transcript of Top Down vs Bottom Up Forecast Gas Demand
Gas Demand Top-Down Forecast 2000 2001Daerah PDB
Seluruh Jawa 6% p.a 920 940Seluruh Jawa 7% p.a 920 940Seluruh Jawa 5% p.a 920 940
7%-5% 0 0
Gas Demand Bottom-Up ForecastDaerah Jawa (Seluruhnya) 2000 2001COMMITTED
1. Power2. Gas Kota3. Industri
Subtotal
UNCOMMITTED1. Power2. Gas Kota3. Industri
Subtotal
TOTAL 920 940
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
893 899 929 1,079 1,284 1,508 1,753 2,021 2,315 2,624893 899 929 1,141 1,426 1,741 2,090 2,476 2,903 3,272893 899 929 1,017 1,144 1,282 1,432 1,593 1,768 2,028
0 0 0 124 282 459 658 883 1,134 1,244
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
569 569 794 794 794 813 813204 364 444 494 494 494 419418 407 462 474 439 441 442
1,191 1,340 1,699 1,761 1,727 1,748 1,674
0 297 448 742 1,017 1,022 1,02780 226 327 374 384 396 48238 687 932 1,080 1,081 1,082 1,083
118 1,210 1,707 2,196 2,482 2,500 2,593
893 899 929 1,308 2,550 3,406 3,957 4,210 4,248 4,267
2012 2013 2014 2015
2,960 3,325 3,722 4,1553,678 4,124 4,615 5,1542,308 2,609 2,933 3,2821,370 1,515 1,681 1,872
2012 2013 2014 2015
813 813 813 813390 390 350 325417 392 278 214
1,620 1,596 1,441 1,352
1,365 1,436 1,546 1,693523 536 550 563
1,083 1,105 1,115 1,1152,971 3,077 3,211 3,372
4,591 4,673 4,653 4,723
Gas Demand Top-Down Forecast 2000 2001Daerah PDB
Jawa Barat 6% p.a 572 582Jawa Barat 7% p.a 572 582Jawa Barat 5% p.a 572 582
7%-5% 0 0
Gas Demand Bottom-Up ForecastDaerah Jawa Barat 2000 2001COMMITTED
1. Power2. Gas Kota3. Industri
Subtotal
UNCOMMITTED1. Power2. Gas Kota3. Industri
Subtotal
TOTAL 572 582
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
611 645 667 772 888 1,013 1,147 1,293 1,452 1,638611 645 667 817 981 1,161 1,357 1,572 1,808 2,030611 645 667 729 797 870 947 1,030 1,119 1,277
0 0 0 88 184 291 410 542 688 752
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
288 288 368 368 368 387 387104 254 304 354 354 354 279358 347 256 261 212 211 212750 889 928 983 933 952 878
0 178 310 604 759 759 7590 30 65 100 100 100 175
38 667 812 960 961 962 96338 876 1,187 1,664 1,820 1,821 1,898
611 645 667 787 1,764 2,115 2,647 2,754 2,773 2,775
2012 2013 2014 2015
1,841 2,061 2,300 2,5612,273 2,541 2,835 3,1591,447 1,629 1,825 2,036
826 912 1,010 1,122
2012 2013 2014 2015
387 387 387 387250 250 250 250187 162 108 44824 799 745 681
973 973 999 1,058204 204 204 204963 985 995 995
2,141 2,163 2,198 2,257
2,964 2,962 2,944 2,937
Gas Demand Top-Down Forecast 2000 2001Daerah PDB
Jawa Tengah 6% p.aJawa Tengah 7% p.aJawa Tengah 5% p.a
7%-5%
Gas Demand Bottom-Up ForecastDaerah Jawa Tengah URAIAN 2000 2001COMMITTED
1. Power2. Gas Kota3. Industri
Subtotal
UNCOMMITTED1. Power2. Gas Kota3. Industri
Subtotal
TOTAL
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
40 87 141 203 273 32251 112 183 265 359 41930 64 102 146 194 23422 48 81 119 165 185
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0 0 145 145 145 145 1450 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 60 60 60 60 600 0 205 205 205 205 205
0 64 64 64 115 120 1250 0 59 62 64 67 690 0 0 0 0 0 00 64 123 126 179 187 194
0 64 328 331 384 392 399
Subtotal 17.01 77.89 112.891 147.892 193.253 193.253 268.254TOTAL 17.01 217.89 312.891 347.892 393.253 393.253 468.254
2012 2013 2014 2015
376 435 501 572486 561 642 733278 326 378 434209 235 265 299
2012 2013 2014 2015
145 145 145 1450 0 0 0
60 60 60 60205 205 205 205
249 256 263 30772 75 78 81
0 0 0 0321 331 341 388
526 536 546 593
413.88 413.88 413.88 449.52613.88 613.88 613.88 649.52
Gas Demand Top-Down Forecast 2000 2001Daerah PDB
Jawa Timur 6% p.a 348 359Jawa Timur 7% p.a 348 359Jawa Timur 5% p.a 348 359
7%-5% 0 0
Gas Demand Bottom-Up ForecastDaerah Jawa Tengah URAIAN 2000 2001COMMITTED
1. Power2. Gas Kota3. Industri
Subtotal
UNCOMMITTED1. Power2. Gas Kota3. Industri
Subtotal
TOTAL 348 359
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
282 254 262 307 355 408 464 525 591 664282 254 262 325 394 469 550 639 736 823282 254 262 289 318 349 382 417 455 517
0 0 0 36 76 120 168 222 281 306
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
281 281 281 281 281 281 281100 110 140 140 140 140 140
60 60 145 153 168 170 170441 451 567 574 589 591 591
0 54 74 74 143 143 14380 196 203 212 220 229 238
0 20 120 120 120 120 12080 270 397 406 483 492 501
282 254 262 521 722 964 980 1,072 1,083 1,092
2012 2013 2014 2015
743 829 922 1,022919 1,023 1,137 1,262584 655 730 812335 368 407 450
2012 2013 2014 2015
281 281 281 281140 140 100 75170 170 110 110591 591 491 466
143 207 284 329247 257 268 278120 120 120 120510 584 672 727
1,101 1,175 1,163 1,194
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Range Top Down Forecast untuk PDB: 5-7 %
Bottom Up Forecast
Tahun
MM
CF
D
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Gas Demand Wilayah Jawa Bagian Tengah
Range Top Down Forecast untuk PDB: 5-7 %
Bottom Up Forecast
Tahun
MM
CF
D
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Gas Demand Wilayah Jawa Bagian Timur
Range Top Down Forecast untuk PDB: 5-7 %
Bottom Up Forecast
Tahun
MM
CF
D
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Gas Demand Wilayah Jawa Bagian Barat
Range Top Down Forecast untuk PDB: 5-7 %
Bottom Up Forecast
Tahun
MM
CF
D