i

SKRIPSI

PROGRAM NUKLIR IRAN SEBAGAI ANCAMAN

TERHADAP KEAMANAN NASIONAL ISRAEL

Disusun dan diajukan untuk memenuhi salah satu syarat

memperoleh gelar Sarjana Ilmu Politik (S.IP) Strata – 1

Jurusan Ilmu Hubungan Internasional

Oleh:

ASTRI NURANI

NIM: 08260006

UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH MALANG

FAKULTAS ILMU SOSIAL DAN ILMU POLITIK

2013

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KATA PENGANTAR

Assalamu’alaikum Wr. Wb.

Ucapan Alhamdulillah, segala puji bagi Allah Tuhan semesta alam. Puji syukur

yang tidak terhingga dipanjatkan kepada Allah SWT, Maha Suci Allah Dzat yang

Maha Agung lagi Maha Mengetahui, sebaik – baik Penyayang dari para

penyayang, Maha Besar dan Maha Pemurah. Dengan rahmat-Nya pula, dengan

waktu dan kesehatan yang telah Dia berikan sehingga penulis dapat

menyelesaikan tulisan ini.

Tulisan ini merupakan usaha penulis untuk memperlihatkan hubungan program

nuklir Iran dengan keamanan nasional Israel sendiri. Dengan mengambil latar

belakang yang merujuk pada sejarah hubungan Iran dan Israel, persepsi ancaman

Israel yang muncul diakibatkan oleh peningkatan kapabilitas Iran yang diukur

secara kuantitas menggunakan perhitungan CINC (Composite Index of National

Capabilites) dalam data set NMC (National Material Capabilites) yang dibuat

oleh David Singer dan intentions yang dilihat melalui peningkatan kapabilitas

militer Iran dan pernyataan para pemimpin Iran sendiri terhadap Israel.

Penulis menyadari bahwa skripsi ini jauh dari sempurna dan masih terdapat

banyak kekurangan dalam penulisannya. Oleh karena itu, ide, kritik dan saran

yang bersifat membangun sangat diperlukan dan diharapkan sehingga tulisan ini

menjadi salah satu referensi yang bermanfaat bagi para pembaca.

Akhir kata penulis berharap skripsi ini dapat memberikan kontribusi, sekalipun

kecil yang bermanfaat untuk menambah dan mengembangkan pengetahuan

mengenai studi Hubungan Internasional.

Wassalamu’alaikum Wr. Wb.

Malang, 23 Mei 2013

Penulis

Astri Nurani

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DAFTAR ISI

Cover .................................................................................................................. i LEMBAR PERSETUJUAN ............................................................................... ii LEMBAR PENGESAHAN ............................................................................... iii BERITA ACARA BIMBINGAN SKRIPSI ....................................................... iv PERNYATAAN ORISINALITAS ..................................................................... v KATA PENGANTAR ....................................................................................... vi DAFTAR ISI ................................................................................................... vii DAFTAR GAMBAR ......................................................................................... ix DAFTAR SKEMA ............................................................................................. x DAFTAR TABEL ............................................................................................. xi BAB I PENDAHULUAN A. Latar Belakang Masalah ................................................................................ 1 B. Rumusan Masalah ......................................................................................... 4 C. Tujuan Penelitian .......................................................................................... 5 D. Manfaat Penelitian ......................................................................................... 5 E. Kerangka Pemikiran

1. Penelitian Terdahulu ................................................................................. 5 2. Tingkat Analisa ........................................................................................ 9 3. Landasan Berpikir

a) Threat Perception ............................................................................... 10 b) Keamanan Nasional (National Security) ............................................. 16 c) Definisi Ancaman ............................................................................... 19

F. Metode Penelitian 1. Jenis Penelitian ....................................................................................... 20 2. Ruang Lingkup Penelitian ....................................................................... 21 3. Teknik Pengumpulan Data ...................................................................... 22 4. Teknik Analisa Data ............................................................................... 22

G. Hipotesa ...................................................................................................... 22 H. Alur Pemikiran ............................................................................................ 23 I. Sistematika Penulisan .................................................................................. 23

BAB II PROGRAM NUKLIR IRAN A. Sejarah Program Nuklir Iran ...................................................................... 25 B. Perkembangan Program Nuklir Iran .......................................................... 31 C. Ancaman Nuklir Iran ................................................................................. 36

BAB III KEAMANAN NASIONAL ISRAEL A. Konsep Keamanan Nasional Israel ............................................................. 42 B. Doktrin Nuklir Israel .................................................................................. 47 C. Pernyataan Para Pemimpin Israel ............................................................... 53

BAB IV KAPABILITAS NUKLIR DAN INTENTIONS IRAN A. Kapabilitas Iran

1. Peningkatan Kapabilitas Nuklir Iran ........................................................ 57 2. Rudal Iran dan Aktivitas Uji Coba Rudal Iran ......................................... 64 3. Perbandingan Kapabilitas Iran dan Israel berdasarkan CINC (Composite

Index of National Capability) .................................................................. 74

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B. Intentions Iran 1. Kapabilitas Militer Iran .......................................................................... 76 2. Pernyataan Para Pemimpin Iran ............................................................. 83

BAB V PENUTUP Kesimpulan ...................................................................................................... 90 DAFTAR PUSTAKA ...................................................................................... xii

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DAFTAR GAMBAR

Gambar 1. Situs Nuklir Iran Tahun 2008 ........................................................... 57 Gambar 2. Fasilitas Program Nuklir Iran .......................................................... 58 Gambar 3. Jumlah Sentrifugal di Natanz .......................................................... 62 Gambar 4. Daftar Rudal Iran dan Jarak Jangkauannya ...................................... 73 Gambar 5. Perbandingan Data Militer Iran dan Israel ....................................... 77 Gambar 6. Perbandingan Persenjataan Iran dan Israel ...................................... 78 Gambar 7. Perbandingan Angkatan Laut Iran dan Israel ................................... 79 Gambar 8. Perbandingan Militer Iran dan Israel ............................................... 83 Gambar 9. Pernyataan Brigadir Jenderal Amir Ali Hajizadeh ........................... 87 Gambar 10. Footage dari parade militer Iran .................................................... 89

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DAFTAR SKEMA

Skema 1. Operasionalisasi Threat Perception ................................................... 14 Skema 2. Alur Pemikiran ................................................................................. 19

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DAFTAR TABEL Tabel 1. Peningkatan Kualitas Pengayaan Uranium Iran ................................... 60 Tabel 2. Daftar Rudal Iran ................................................................................ 69 Tabel 3. Komponen Variabel CINC ................................................................. 75 Tabel 4. Skor CINC Iran 2005 – 2007 .............................................................. 76 Tabel 5. Skor CINC Israel 2005 – 2007 ............................................................ 76 Tabel 6. Perbandingan Angkatan Udara Iran dan Israel .................................... 80

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