Perumusan Skenario Planning dalam rangka Memperkuat Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan dan Kinerja...

P S i Pl i d l kPerumusan Scenario Planning dalam rangka Memperkuat Sistem Perencanaan

P b d Ki j O i i dPembangunan dan Kinerja Organisasi dengan Pendekatan Sistemik

Drs. H. Dadang Solihin, MA

Seminar Forum SANKRISeminar Forum SANKRIMenerawang Pembangunan Wilayah di Masa Depan dengan Scenario Planning

Samarinda, 26 November 2007

Dadang holds a MA degree (Economics), University of

Dadang Solihin’s Profileg g ( ) y

Colorado, USA. His previous post is Head, Center for Research Data and Information at DPD Secretariat General as well as Deputy Director for Information of Spatial Planning and Land Use Management at Indonesian National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas).

Beside working as Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Beside working as Assistant Professor at Graduate School of AsiaPacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, he also active as Associate Professor at University of Darma Persada, Jakarta, Indonesia.

He got various training around the globe included Advanced International He got various training around the globe, included Advanced International Training Programme of Information Technology Management, at Karlstad City, Sweden (2005); the Training Seminar on Land Use and Management, Taiwan (2004); Developing Multimedia Applications for Managers KualaTaiwan (2004); Developing Multimedia Applications for Managers, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (2003); Applied Policy Development Training, Vancouver, Canada (2002); Local Government Administration Training Course, Hiroshima, Japan (2001); and Regional Development and Planning Training os a, Japa ( 00 ); a d eg o a e e op e a d a g a gCourse, Sapporo, Japan (1999). He published more than five books regarding local autonomous.

You can reach Dadang Solihin by email at [email protected] or by his

dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 2

You can reach Dadang Solihin by email at [email protected] or by his mobile at +62812 932 2202

Materi

PerencanaanSi t P P b N i l Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (SPPN)

Scenario Planningg Contoh Scenario Planning

– Indonesia 2010– China 2025– India 2025

Indonesia 2025– Indonesia 2025


PerencanaanPerencanaanPerencanaanPerencanaan


PerencanaanPerencanaanPerencanaanPerencanaan

• Suatu proses untuk menentukan tindakan masa depan yang tepat, melalui urutan pilihan, dengan

hit k b d t dimemperhitungkan sumber daya yang tersedia.• Proses pengambilan keputusan dari sejumlah

pilihan untuk mencapai suatu tujuan yangpilihan untuk mencapai suatu tujuan yang dikehendaki.


FungsiFungsi//Manfaat PerencanaanManfaat PerencanaanFungsiFungsi//Manfaat PerencanaanManfaat Perencanaan

Sebagai penuntun arahMi i li i K tid k ti Minimalisasi Ketidakpastian

Minimalisasi inefisiensi sumber dayaS Penetapan Standar dalam Pengawasan Kualitas


Syarat PerencanaanSyarat PerencanaanSyarat PerencanaanSyarat PerencanaanHarus memiliki, mengetahui, dan memperhitungkan:Harus memiliki, mengetahui, dan memperhitungkan:1. Tujuan akhir yang dikehendaki.2. Sasaran-sasaran dan prioritas untuk mewujudkannya (yang

i k ilih d i b b i lt tif)mencerminkan pemilihan dari berbagai alternatif).3. Jangka waktu mencapai sasaran-sasaran tersebut.4 Masalah-masalah yang dihadapi4. Masalah masalah yang dihadapi.5. Modal atau sumber daya yang akan digunakan serta

pengalokasiannya.6 k bij k k bij k t k l k k6. kebijakan-kebijakan untuk melaksanakannya.7. Orang, organisasi, atau badan pelaksananya.8 Mekanisme pemantauan evaluasi dan pengawasan8. Mekanisme pemantauan, evaluasi, dan pengawasan

pelaksanaannya.


Kegagalan PerencanaanKegagalan PerencanaanKegagalan PerencanaanKegagalan Perencanaan

1. Penyusunan perencanaan tidak tepat, mungkin karena: informasinya kurang lengkap, metodologinya belum dikuasai, perencanaannya tidak realistis sehingga tidak mungkin pernah

bisa terlaksana pengaruh politis terlalu besar sehingga pertimbangan-

pertimbangan teknis perencanaan diabaikanpertimbangan teknis perencanaan diabaikan.

2. Perencanaannya mungkin baik, tetapi pelaksanaannya tidak seperti seharusnya.seperti seharusnya. kegagalan terjadi karena tidak berkaitnya perencanaan dengan

pelaksanaannya. aparat pelaksana tidak siap atau tidak kompeten, masyarakat tidak punya kesempatan berpartisipasi sehingga tidak

mendukungnya.


Kegagalan Perencanaang g3. perencanaan mengikuti paradigma yang ternyata tidak sesuai

d k di i d k b t tid k d t t idengan kondisi dan perkembangan serta tidak dapat mengatasi masalah mendasar negara berkembang. Misalnya, orientasi semata-mata pada pertumbuhan yang

menyebabkan makin melebarnya kesenjanganmenyebabkan makin melebarnya kesenjangan. Dengan demikian, yang keliru bukan semata-mata

perencanaannya, tetapi falsafah atau konsep di balik perencanaan itu.

4. karena perencanaan diartikan sebagai pengaturan total kehidupan manusia sampai yang paling kecil sekalipun.

P di i i tid k b ik k t Perencanaan di sini tidak memberikan kesempatan berkembangnya prakarsa individu dan pengembangan kapasitas serta potensi masyarakat secara penuh.

Sistem ini bertentangan dengan hukum penawaran danSistem ini bertentangan dengan hukum penawaran dan permintaan karena pemerintah mengatur semuanya.

Perencanaan seperti inilah yang disebut sebagai sistem perencanaan terpusat (centrally planned system).


Sistem Perencanaan yang BerhasilSistem Perencanaan yang BerhasilSistem Perencanaan yang BerhasilSistem Perencanaan yang Berhasil

• Sistem perencanaan yang mendorong berkembangnya mekanisme pasar dan peran serta masyarakatmasyarakat.

• Dalam sistem ini perencanaan dilakukan dengan menentukan sasaran-sasaran secara garis besar, g ,baik di bidang sosial maupun ekonomi, dan pelaku utamanya adalah masyarakat dan usaha swasta.


Perencanaan yang IdealPerencanaan yang Idealy gy g

Interactive Planning• Partisipatif: masyarakat yang akan memperoleh manfaat dari

perencanaan harus turut serta dalam prosesnya. p p y• Kesinambungan: perencanaan tidak hanya berhenti pada satu

tahap; tetapi harus berlanjut sehingga menjamin adanya kemajuan terus-menerus dalam kesejahteraan, dan jangan

i t j di k dsampai terjadi kemunduran.• Holistik: masalah dalam perencanaan dan pelaksanaannya

tidak dapat hanya dilihat dari satu sisi (atau sektor) tetapi harus dilihat dari berbagai aspek dan dalam keutuhan konsep secaradilihat dari berbagai aspek, dan dalam keutuhan konsep secara keseluruhan.

• Mengandung sistem yang dapat berkembang (a learning and adaptive system).adaptive system).

• Terbuka dan demokratis (a pluralistic social setting).


Sistem Perencanaan Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (SPPN)Pembangunan Nasional (SPPN)


Apa itu SPPN?Apa itu SPPN?pp

SPPN adalah satu kesatuan tata cara

perencanaan pembangunanperencanaan pembangunan untuk menghasilkan rencana-

rencana pembangunan dalam jangka panjang jangkajangka panjang, jangka menengah, dan tahunan

yang dilaksanakan oleh unsur y gpenyelenggara negara dan masyarakat di tingkat pusat dan daerah.


TTujuan ujuan SPPNSPPNjj

Mendukung koordinasi antar-pelaku pembangunan.Menjamin terciptanya integrasi, sinkronisasi, dan sinergi baik antar-Daerah, antar-ruang, antar-waktu, antar-fungsi pemerintah maupun antara Pusat dan Daerah.Menjamin keterkaitan dan konsistensi antara perencanaan, penganggaran, pelaksanaan, dan pengawasanpengawasan.Mengoptimalkan partisipasi masyarakat.Menjamin tercapainya penggunaan sumber dayaMenjamin tercapainya penggunaan sumber daya secara efisien, efektif, berkeadilan, dan berkelanjutan.


berkelanjutan.

Proses Perencanaan

Pendekatan Politik: P ilih P id /K l D h h ilkPemilihan Presiden/Kepala Daerah menghasilkan rencana pembangunan hasil proses politik (public choice theory of planning), khususnya penjabaran Visi dan Misi dalam RPJM/Ddalam RPJM/D.Proses Teknokratik: Menggunakan metode dan kerangka berpikir ilmiah oleh lembaga atau satuan kerja yang secara fungsional bertugas untuk itu.Partisipatif:Partisipatif: Dilaksanakan dengan melibatkan seluruh stakeholders, antara lain melalui Musrenbang.

Proses top-down dan bottom-up: Dilaksanakan menurut jenjang pemerintahan.


Tahapan PerencanaanTahapan Perencanaanpp

1 Penyusunan Rencana1. Penyusunan Rencana Rancangan Rencana Pembangunan Nasional / Daerah Rancangan Rencana Kerja Dep / Lembaga SKPD Musyawarah Perencanaan Pembangunan Rancangan Akhir Rencana Pembangunan

2 Penetapan Rencana2. Penetapan Rencana RPJP Nas dgn UU dan RPJP Daerah dgn Perda RPJM dengan Keputusan Presiden / Kepala Daerah RKP / RKPD dengan Kep. Presiden / Kepala Daerah

3. Pengendalian Pelaksanaan Rencana4. Evaluasi Kinerja4. Evaluasi Kinerja


Scenario PlanningScenario PlanningScenario PlanningScenario Planning


Apa itu Scenario Planning?Apa itu Scenario Planning?

• “An internally consistent view of what the future might• An internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be” (Michael Porter, 1985).

• “A tool [for] ordering one’s perceptions about [ ] g p palternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out right” (Peter Schwartz, 1991)1991).

• “That part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties g g gof the future” (Gill Ringland, 1998).

• “A disciplined method for imaging possible futures in hi h i ti l d i i b l d t”which organizational decisions may be played out”

(Paul Shoemaker, 1995).


Apa itu Scenario Planning?Apa itu Scenario Planning?

• Scenario Planning is a model that can be used to• Scenario Planning is a model that can be used to explore and learn the future in which a corporate strategy is formed. It k b d ibi ll b f i b• It works by describing a small number of scenarios, by creating stories how the future may unfold, and how this may affect an issue that confronts the corporation.

• Scenarios are carefully crafted stories about the future embodying a wide variety of ideas and integrating them in a way that is communicable and useful. y

• Scenarios help us to link uncertainties about the future to the decisions that we must make today (Royal Dutch Shell)(Royal Dutch Shell).


Apa itu Scenario Planning?Apa itu Scenario Planning?• The scenario planning method works by understanding the

nature and impact of the most uncertain and important drivingnature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting the future.

• It is a group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper understanding of centraland development of mutual deeper understanding of central issues that are important to the future of your business.

• The goal is to create and craft a number of diverging stories by extrapolating uncertain and heavily influencing driving forces. p g y g g

• The stories, plus the processes to create them, have a dual aim: – to increase the knowledge of the business environment and g– to widen both the receiver's and participant's perception of

possible future events. • The method is most widely used as a strategic management y g g

tool, but it is also used for enabling group discussion about a common future.


Apa itu Scenario Planning?

Scenario planning is the combination of scenario• Scenario planning is the combination of scenario analysis for strategic purposes and strategic planning based on the outcome of the scenarioplanning based on the outcome of the scenario phase (Lindgren, 2003)

SCENARIO generation Strategic PLANNING

Timedadang-solihin.blogspot.com 21

Time

Perbedaan antara Scenario Forecast dan VisionsScenario, Forecast, dan Visions

Scenario Forecast VisionsPossible, plausible futures

Probable futures Desired future

Uncertainty based Based on certain Value basedUncertainty based Based on certain relations

Value based

Illustrate risks Hide risk Hide riskQualitative or quantitative

Quantitative Usually qualitative

Needed to know what Needed to dare to Energizingwe decide decide

g g

Rarely used Daily used Relatively often usedStrong in medium to Strong in short term Function as triggersStrong in medium to long-term perspective and medium to high uncertainties

Strong in short-term perspective and low degree of uncertainty

Function as triggers for voluntary change


uncertainties

Dimensi S i Pl i Focus: newScenario Planning Focus: new

business

NewBusiness

Innovation

New thinking/ Paradigm shift

Business development/ Concept development

Strategy/ Scenario Scenario Scenario Purpose:

prerequisitePurpose: planning learningplanningplanning

prerequisite for changeaction

Evaluation

Risk-consciousness/ Need for

Strategy development/ Organizational

renewal

Focus: old

gdevelopment

dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 23business

Karakteristik Traditional Planning dan S i Pl iScenario PlanningTraditional Planning Scenario Planningg g

Perspective Partial, “Everything else being equal”

Overall, “Nothing else being equal”

Quantitative objective known Qualitative not necessarilyVariables

Quantitative, objective, known Qualitative, not necessarily quantitative, subjective, known or hidden

Relationships Statistical, stable structures Dynamic, emerging structuresRelationships Statistical, stable structures Dynamic, emerging structures

Explanation The past explains the present The future is the raison d’etre of the present

Pi f f Si l d t i M lti l d t iPicture of future Simple and certain Multiple and uncertain

MethodDeterminist and quantitative models (economic,

Intention analysis, qualitative and stochastic models (cross-impact

mathematical) and systems analysis)

Attitude to the future

Passive or adaptive (the future will be)

Active and creative (the future is created)


Steps in Scenario PlanningSteps in Scenario Planning

1. Identify people who will contribute a wide range of perspectives.2. Comprehensive interviews/workshop about how participants

see big shifts coming in society, economics, politics, g g y, , p ,technology, etc.

3. Group (cluster) these views into connected patterns.4. Group draws a list of priorities (the best ideas).p p ( )5. Create rough pictures of the future, based on these priorities.

Stories and rough scenarios.6. Add further detail to get impact scenarios. Determine in what g p

way each scenario will affect the corporation.7. Identify early warning signals. Things that are indicative for a

particular scenario to unfold.8. The scenarios are monitored, evaluated and reviewed.


Tahapan Membuat Skenario1. Decide driving forces (istilah lain : drivers / drivers for change)2. Find key uncertainties : drivers yang paling important & unpredictable. 3 Group linked drivers into a viable framework (kalau bisa reduce to yang3. Group linked drivers into a viable framework (kalau bisa, reduce to yang

terpenting/strategic drivers)4. Draft Scenarios (plot menjadi 2-4 scenarios, lalu buat narasinya)5. Strategize (lihat strategic challenges, susun strategic Options & identify5. Strategize (lihat strategic challenges, susun strategic Options & identify

early warning signs untuk each scenario)

DrivingDrivingForcesForces

StrategicStrategicDriversDrivers

StrategicStrategicChallengesChallenges

StrategicStrategicOptionsOptions

Faktor-faktor yang dapat memicuperubahan (Sosial, Demografi, Ekonomi, T k P litik

Driving Forces yang paling berpengaruh terhadap masa d i i/

Berbagai arah ketidakpastian Strategic Drivers yang d t

Action Plan yang perlu disusun untuk mewujudkan Visi sekaligus merespon Tekno, Politik,

Lingkungan, Values)depan organisasi/ negara. Contoh: human capital, trade openness, governance

dapat menghambat/menciptakan peluang dalam mewujudkan

sekaligus merespon Strategic Challenges


governance mewujudkan Visi

Some Traps to AvoidSome Traps to Avoid1 Treating scenarios as forecasts1. Treating scenarios as forecasts.2. Constructing scenarios based on too simplistic a difference.

Such as optimistic and pessimistic.3 Failing to make the scenario global enough in scope3. Failing to make the scenario global enough in scope.4. Failing to focus the scenarios in areas of potential impact on

the enterprise.5 Treating scenarios as an informational or instructional tool5. Treating scenarios as an informational or instructional tool

rather than for participative learning and/or strategy formation.6. Not having an adequate process for engaging management

teams in the scenario planning process.p g p7. Failing to put enough imaginative stimulus into the scenario

design.8. Not using an experienced facilitator.g p


Level of Strategic ThinkingLevel of Strategic ThinkingParadigmParadigmWithin paradigm

strategies- Strategy as

prolongation or

Within paradigm strategies

- Strategy as prolongation or

Paradigm challenging strategies

- Scenarios as a

Paradigm challenging strategies

- Scenarios as a Strategic thinking strong prolongation or

modification of the past

prolongation or modification of the

past

source of higher-level strategic thinking and

planning

source of higher-level strategic thinking and

planning

strong

Mindless actionMindless actionFuture trap

- Scenarios as scienceFuture trap

- Scenarios as scienceStrategic thinking Mindless action- Tactical and action

planning

Mindless action- Tactical and action

planning

Scenarios as science or intellectual exercise with no connection to

strategic action

Scenarios as science or intellectual exercise with no connection to

strategic action

Strategic thinking weak

Futures focus weak Futures focus strong


Level of IntegrationgLevel of

integrationintegrationFuture integrationIntegrates long-term

perspectives with mid-term strategies and

Future integrationIntegrates long-term

perspectives with mid-term strategies and

Strategy integrationStrategy integration

term strategies and short-term actionsterm strategies and short-term actions

Integrates different businesses and

products in search for strategic leverage

Integrates different businesses and

products in search for strategic leverage

Process integrationIntegrates operationalProcess integrationIntegrates operational

strategic leveragestrategic leverage

Integrates operational procedures in search for efficient processes

Integrates operational procedures in search for efficient processes

dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 29Time horizon

Models for Scenario ProjectModels for Scenario ProjectParticipation OrganizationExpert model Participation

modelOrganization

model

The planner Alone With a group in th i ti

In training/ i t ti thThe planner

works the organization instructing the organization

The planner The planner The planner Control controls the

processtakes part in and leads the process

stays outside the process

Is presented by Is owned and Is owned by the The Result

p ythe planner presented by the

group

yorganization

The planner The planner The planner

RelationshipThe planner completes the assignment

The planner maintains a relationship with the group

The planner passes responsibility to the group


the group the group

Scenarios and Uncertainties

Uncertainty A

Scenario 1Scenario 1 Scenario 2Scenario 2

Uncertainty B

Scenario 3Scenario 3 Scenario 4Scenario 4Scenario 3Scenario 3 Scenario 4Scenario 4


Contoh: Daily NewspapersStrong demand for digital information

Wait and Wait and CyberworldCyberworldseesee

y2010

y2010

Newspapers conservative

Newspapers IT-active

Business as usual

Business as usual

High-tech productionHigh-tech

productionpp

dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 32Weak demand for digital information

Contoh: Scenario Indonesia 2010 Plot Scenario & Buat Narasinya

A th it i tAuthoritarian government

Pro-fair distribution economic

i t ti

Pro-growth economic

orientation orientationorientation

dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 33Democratic government

On the EdgeOn the Edge• Authoritarian government system with a pro-growthAuthoritarian government system with a pro growth

economic orientation.• Separatist movements cause Indonesia to

disintegrate. Conflicts between the regions and the g gcentre spread to become inter-religious and inter-ethnic conflicts, labor conflicts, and anti-Chinese violence. A h i Ci il di b di• Anarchy increases. Civil disobedience grows. Education and religion are used to enforce ideological uniformity.

• Economic growth occurs through big capital and• Economic growth occurs through big capital and high technology.

• After Aceh and Papua, Riau secedes from IndonesiaIndonesia.


Padding a Leaky BoatPadding a Leaky Boat• Combines a democratic government system with a• Combines a democratic government system with a

pro-growth economic orientation.• Indonesia become democratic, with a free press

and the rule of law.• Regional autonomy works. Economic problems

are overcome through growth both throughare overcome through growth, both through foreign investment and using domestic assets.


Into the Crocodile PitInto the Crocodile Pit• Combines an authoritarian government with a pro• Combines an authoritarian government with a pro-

fair distribution economic orientation.• Indonesia becomes more authoritarian due to

economic isolation. To keep up popular subsidies, the government over-exploits natural resources.

• Factories close as resources grow scarceFactories close, as resources grow scarce. Forced agriculture is brought backs, as in colonial times.Di id t k t d b t N ti li t• Dissidents are kept down by terror. Nationalist soldiers join populist forces to launch a coup d’etat.


Slow but SteadySlow but Steady• Combines a democratic government with pro fair• Combines a democratic government with pro-fair

distribution economic orientation.• Successful regional autonomy and

decentralization saves Indonesia from destruction• Democracy survives the end of the New Order. • Foreign investors return as does international• Foreign investors return, as does international

credibility.• Violence recedes. Justice becomes the basis for

resolving conflict.• Economic growth is low profile, but fait distribution

reaches the regionsreaches the regions.


Contoh:China Scenarios to 2025China Scenarios to 2025


Regional Ties

• Regional Ties describes how China continues on the h f f d i i i l ipath of reform despite an international environment

that becomes increasingly difficult. Chinese leadership and vision facilitate the forging of regional ties that help overcome historical enmities and restorehelp overcome historical enmities and restore prosperity in Asia.

• The scenario is written as a Government White Paper, reflecting on 20 years of progress in China, a medium g y p g ,often used by the Chinese government to communicate to the public-at-large on a major issue, to lay out its policy or to reflect on the past.


Unfulfilled Promise

• Unfulfilled Promise describes a China where the desire for economic development is not supported by thefor economic development is not supported by the necessary structural reforms. The name reflects the general sentiment among the Chinese people that the promise made to them in terms of inclusive economicpromise made to them in terms of inclusive economic development has been largely unfulfilled.

• The story is told as an article in a Western online journal and reviews China’s development over thejournal and reviews China s development over the period 2006-2025.


New Silk Road

• New Silk Road describes the flourishing economic and cultural rise of China, a feat achieved despite the presence of substantial internal obstacles Thepresence of substantial internal obstacles. The scenario reflects China’s peaceful geopolitical integration and its sizeable role in the exchange of goods services investments and ideas In this way itgoods, services, investments and ideas. In this way it recreates the original Silk Road.

• The scenario is told using the Online Encyclopaedia of the World and provides a factual account of what Chinathe World and provides a factual account of what China has achieved over a 20-year period.


Contoh:India Scenarios to 2025India Scenarios to 2025


Bolly World

• “Bollywood” is the name given to the highly successful Indian film industry famous for its masala movies—Indian film industry, famous for its masala moviesmelodramatic extravaganzas with spectacular song and dance numbers. The title “Bolly World” reflects a future in which India’s leaders are so dazzled by the immediate

i t b d i i t ti l k t th t th f il tgains to be made in international markets that they fail to implement much needed domestic reforms.

• The scenario is told as a conversation overheard on a plane flying from Delhi to Dubai in 2025 A charteredplane flying from Delhi to Dubai in 2025. A chartered accountant tells his traveling companion why he thinks India is no longer experiencing international success and is facing so many problems. As he puts it, the situation “is just g y p p , jlike Bollywood itself—once you get behind all the glitter and the razzmatazz, you realize—the whole thing is just an illusion.”


P h l I diPahale India

• “Pahale India” means “India First” and this is reflected in the scenario in at least three ways:in the scenario in at least three ways: 1. people from across India put the needs of their

community and country first; 2 India emerges as a global economic leader; and2. India emerges as a global economic leader; and 3. India’s dynamic internal developments make it a

source of inspiration for the rest of the world.• This story is told by a successful Indian business

woman at the 40th India Economic Summit in 2025. Her keynote speech explores the reasons for India’s

k blremarkable success.


Atakta BharatAtakta Bharat• “Atakta Bharat” describes an India “getting stuck withoutAtakta Bharat describes an India getting stuck without

direction” reflecting the lack of unified action and absence of effective leadership that, in this scenario, create a continuous and cumulative source of problems for India.

• The scenario is told as the transcript of a speech given at the monthly forum of the Hyderabad GM Crop Collective. The collective—a collaboration between the Hyderabad Farmers Seed Developers and Rural WorkersFarmers, Seed Developers and Rural Workers Cooperatives—is an example of one of the more positive responses made by some Indians to the multitude of troubles facing India.g

• The speech itself also draws attention to the importance of self-organization and self-help. Entitled “India’s last 20 years: Why we must help ourselves”, it explores how initial

ll i t ti d tt t t f i I di f il d bwell intentioned attempts at reform in India failed—because of corruption, inadequate planning and insufficient political will. The speaker raises a number of what he calls “if onlys” to describe how India’s future could have been very


to describe how India s future could have been very different.

ContohPandangan dari Jawa Barat: Skenario Indonesia

2010 (Bandung, 2 Januari 2000)Ekonomi

L

Skenario 2Riak TangisSkenario 2Riak Tangis

Skenario 4Fajar

Menyingsing

Skenario 4Fajar

Menyingsing

Low G

overnRiak Tangis di Nusa Damai

Riak Tangis di Nusa Damai

Menyingsing, Kabut Mulai

Tersibak

Menyingsing, Kabut Mulai

Tersibak

nment Interve

TerbukaTertutup

entionio

nSkenario 1

ZamrudSkenario 1

ZamrudSkenario 3

KawahSkenario 3

Kawahent I

nter

vent

Zamrud Berserakan

Zamrud Berserakan

Kawah BergolakKawah

Bergolak

h G

over

nme


Hig

Diagram Pohon Skenario Indonesia 2010

Skenario 1: Zamrud Berserakan

Skenario 1: Zamrud Berserakan

Tinggi

Skenario 2: Riak Tangis di Nusa Damai

Skenario 2: Riak Tangis di Nusa DamaiRendah

Tertutup

Tangis di Nusa DamaiTangis di Nusa Damai

Skenario 3: KawahSkenario 3: KawahTi i

Rendah

Skenario 3: Kawah Bergolak

Skenario 3: Kawah Bergolak

Sk i 4 F jSk i 4 F j

TinggiTerbuka

Skenario 4: Fajar Menyingsing, Kabut

Mulai Tersibak

Skenario 4: Fajar Menyingsing, Kabut

Mulai TersibakRendah


Zamrud BerserakanZamrud BerserakanZamrud BerserakanZamrud Berserakan

• Indonesia terpecah, pelanggaran hak asasi manusia sering terjadi.

• Peranan masyarakat rendah, setelah terjadinya kudeta yang mengubah keadaan masyarakat terbuka menjadi masyarakat tertutup. j y p

• Untuk bertahan hidup, pemerintah melakukan intervensi ekonomi yang sangat tinggi.

• Kelaparan terjadi di mana mana Pada saat yang• Kelaparan terjadi di mana-mana. Pada saat yang sama Indonesia dikucilkan oleh masyarakat dunia.


Riak Tangis di Nusa DamaiRiak Tangis di Nusa DamaiRiak Tangis di Nusa DamaiRiak Tangis di Nusa Damai• Adanya ketidaksabaran masyarakat dan pemerintah IndonesiaAdanya ketidaksabaran masyarakat dan pemerintah Indonesia

setelah menyaksikan bahwa pengambilan keputusan dan kompromi dalam masyarakat terbuka terlalu banyak memakan waktu dan energi, yang disertai dengan perdebatan sengit dan bi i P d h l l h dih d i I d i t b tbising. Padahal masalah yang dihadapi Indonesia sangat berat dan memerlukan penanganan yang cepat.

• Maka diambillah pilihan untuk membatasi keterbukaan masyarakat sehingga pengambilan keputusan bisa lebih cepatmasyarakat, sehingga pengambilan keputusan bisa lebih cepat dan kerja bisa lebih efisien.

• Di bidang ekonomi, pemerintah hanya sedikit melakukan intervensi sehingga pertumbuhan berlangsung cepat Namunintervensi, sehingga pertumbuhan berlangsung cepat. Namun karena kebijakan negara memprioritaskan ekonomi, dan untuk itu hak-hak rakyat banyak dikorbankan.

• Pada akhirnya, masyarakat dunia tidak bisa mentoleransi lagi y , y gterhadap Indonesia, dan kampanye pemboikotan terhadap produk Indonesia dilancarkan di seluruh dunia.


K h B l kK h B l kKawah BergolakKawah Bergolak

• Keadaan Indonesia yang tak pernah reda sejak runtuhnya Orde Baru. Masyarakat terbuka merangsang perdebatan tidak ada hentinya• Masyarakat terbuka merangsang perdebatan tidak ada hentinya di kalangan masyarakat.

• Waktu dan energi hanya digunakan untuk berdebat dan mengatasi pergolakan politik Padahal tekanan kemiskinanmengatasi pergolakan politik. Padahal tekanan kemiskinan akibat krisis ekonomi perlu mendapat penyelesaian segera.

• Untuk mengatasi masalah kemiskinan ini sesegera mungkin, maka pemerintah melakukan intervensi yang tinggi demimaka pemerintah melakukan intervensi yang tinggi demi menyelamatkan masyarakat miskin, akibatnya pengurasan sumber daya alam tak terkendali sama sekali.

• Indonesia bagaikan kawah yang bergolak. Setiap waktu bisa l d k d k I d imeletus dan memporakporandakan Indonesia.


Fajar Menyingsing Kabut Mulai TersibakFajar Menyingsing Kabut Mulai TersibakFajar Menyingsing, Kabut Mulai TersibakFajar Menyingsing, Kabut Mulai Tersibak

• Masyarakat dan pemerintah konsisten dan sabar untukMasyarakat dan pemerintah konsisten dan sabar untuk membangun masyarakat terbuka, yang mendorong makin kuatnya peranan masyarakat dan makin berkurangnya kekuasaan pemerintah.

• Ketidaksabaran memang terus menggoda dan korban benar-benar berjatuhan. Berkali-kali masyarakat dan pemerintah tergoda untuk mengurangi keterbukaan masyarakat, tapi niat itu dikalahkan dengan ketakutan makin terancamnyaitu dikalahkan dengan ketakutan makin terancamnya kemanusiaan dan Indonesia.

• Di bidang ekonomi, pemerintah mengurangi intervensinya, kecuali beraskecuali beras.

• Konflik-konflik horisontal yang terjadi di awal pemerintahan Gus Dur membuat orang makin takut terhadap perpecahan. Jika Indonesia pecah, maka nusantara akan kembali seperti p , psebelum dijajah Belanda.

• Perang antar negara baru tak akan terelakkan. Ketakutan perang antar negara -pecahan Indonesia- inilah yang

j dik k t t t j k t I d idadang-solihin.blogspot.com 51

menjadikan masyarakat tetap menjaga kesatuan Indonesia.

Contoh: Indonesia 2025Visi Indonesia 2025

Menjadi bangsa yang unggul dengan tetap mempertahankan jati diri dan identitas nasional di lingkungan global pada tahun 2025

Indonesia1Visi Indonesia 2025

Nusantara Jaya

Bangsa dan negara yang

Menempatkan Indonesia sebagai negara yang mempunyai standar hidup dan daya saing di atas rata-rata dunia di tahun 2025

Pemerintah2g g g p

Sengsara

Bangsa dan negara yang unggul dan menjadi pemain utama di lingkungan global

K bij k SengsaraBangsa dan negara yang tetap miskin dan tertatih-

tatih di era globalisasiSkenario 3

KebijakanNasional

PraharaBangsa dan negara yang

gagal dan terjungkal di Skenario 1

Skenario 2

tahun 2025

2025


Daftar PustakaDaftar Pustaka'Eisy, Muhammad Ridlo (2000) Pertemuan Puncak - Dialog Regional JawaEisy, Muhammad Ridlo (2000) Pertemuan Puncak Dialog Regional Jawa

Barat Menyusun Skenario Indonesia Masa Depan Pandangan dari Jawa Barat : Skenario Indonesia 2010, http://www.geocities.com/ind2010/serta.htm

LINGREN M t d H B dh ld 2003 “S i Pl i th Li kLINGREN, Mats and Hans Bandhold, 2003, “Scenario Planning, the Link between Future and Strategy”, New York: Palgrave MacMillan

Hermana, Budi (2007) “Peran BI Menuju Indonesia 2025: Prahara, Sengsara atau Nusantara Jaya?” Universitas GunadarmaSengsara, atau Nusantara Jaya? , Universitas Gunadarma

RINGLAND, Gill, 2006.Scenario Planning, West Sussex: John Willey & Sons Ltd

UU 25/2004 tentang Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan NasionalUU 25/2004 tentang Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional“What is Scenario Planning?”, http://www.12manage.com/

methods_scenario_planning.htmlWorld Economic Forum (2006) World Scenario Series China and theWorld Economic Forum (2006) World Scenario Series, China and the

World: Scenarios to 2025, www.weforum.org World Economic Forum (2006) World Scenario Series, India and the

World: Scenarios to 2025, www.weforum.org


World: Scenarios to 2025, www.weforum.org

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Perumusan Skenario Planning dalam rangka Memperkuat Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan dan Kinerja...

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