Mendorong Daya SaingIndonesia,Mendorong Daya SaingIndonesia,Menyongsong ASEAN Economic Community 2015Menyongsong ASEAN Economic Community 2015

By: Hendri Saparini, Ph.DManaging Directorg g

ECONIT Advisory Group in Economicsaparini@econit.co.id

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GLOBALISASI REGIONALISASIGLOBALISASI, REGIONALISASI DAN POSISI PENTING ASIA

TIMUR

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Asia Pra-Krisis: The Flying Geese

Before the crisis, the flying geese phenomenon was soaring throughout Asia and influencing the Pacific Rim economies.

The formation resembled flying geese, headed by Japan, while the rest of the group followed.

3Note:

Flying Geese is a concept developed by Kaname Akamasu that best describes the economic structure of Asia before the crisis.

y g g , y p , g pCountries toward the front tend to transfer older industries to countries at the back.

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Krisis Asia Mengakhiri Flying Geese

4Asian Economic Crisis in 1997-1998: The End of Flying Geese, The

end of the good old days of the Asian miracle

Source: BBC

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Asia Paska-Krisis: The Regional Squadrons

After the crisis, squadrons of the former flying geese, who increasingly drive regional integration.

SAARCSAARC Squadron China Squadron

Korea Squadron Japan

S dSquadron

5ASEAN Squadron

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China dan India: Penentu Asia Timur

Manufacturing giant with the lowest Strong technology and service

industry

China India Manufacturing giant with the lowest

prices Hybrid communist-capitalist model that

enables development Solid primary schools

industry Relatively efficient capital

market Strong private sector and legal

frameworkY kf

Streng

Streng

Infrastructure that lures foreign investment

Good distribution of wealth with higher per-capita income

Younger workforce Growing population

Great university system Strong entrepreneurial culture

Attracts higher prices

gths

gths

g p

Red tape, corruption, tough labor laws and bureaucracy all

d i

We

We

deter investment Woeful infrastructure

Lackluster primary education system

Exclusive growth environment

Heavy reliance on low prices Weak financial system Inefficient capital system Slow population growth

eaknesse

eaknesse

6

Exclusive growth environment to the rich

The privatization of key industries has stopped

Slow population growthes s

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Arti Penting ASEAN Di Asia Timur

7

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ASEAN Penentu Masa Depan Asia Timur

ASEAN

Neutral High Neutral Position Bargaining Power

ASEAN i t id dAttractive Single Regional Market

Competitive Regional

Production Base

ASEAN is not considered a threat to China, India, Japan,

South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand

Huge market High consumption Less competitive

Smooth flow of goods, services, and people under FTA

Abundance of natural

8

resources Low labor cost

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ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015:ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015:Bersatu Pasti

Menguntungkan Semua?g g

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Menuju ASEAN Community 2015

ASEAN Security ASEAN Economic ASEAN Socio-

ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015

ASEAN Security Community (ASC)

ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Cultural Community (ASCC)

The Peaceful, Prosperous, and People-Centric ASEAN

Single Regional MarketRegional Production Base

Dual Track Strategy

Production/Supply Consumption/Demand

10

Dual Track Strategy

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Apa Arti ASEAN Integration?

Tariffs will be eliminated and non-tariff b i ill b d ll h d tbarriers will be gradually phased out

Rules and regulations will be simplified and harmonized

ASEAN investors will be permitted to invest in t f l l d t f i d th

All barriers to the free flow of goods, services, capital, and skilled labor

are removed sectors formerly closed to foreigners and the services sector will also be opened up

are removed

The region will become a

Applicable international standards and practices are followed, and policies on intellectual property rights and competition are The region will become a

more level playing field put in place Regional infrastructure will be more developed with the expansion of transportation, telecommunications and energy linkages

11

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Tren Raksasa Korporasi Dunia dan ASEAN Integration

Global trends in manufacturing indicate a shift towards adopting flexible production techniques and integrated production chains

It is no longer cost effective for all manufacturing activities to be done in in-house or in a single country

MNCs are integrating their manufacturing activities across several locations MNCs are integrating their manufacturing activities across several locations

MNCs are not only seeking large consumer markets but also regional sites where they can establish efficient production networks

12Regional Production Base

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Janji Cost Savings Atas ASEAN Integration

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Diperlukan Balanced Approach

Benefits to MNCs Targeting more sales

Benefits to Local Companies More export opportunities to Targeting more sales

volume in the ASEAN market

Components procurement on an ASEAN-wide basis

More export opportunities to ASEAN market

ASEAN-wide expansion opportunity for corporate growth strategyT h l d fi i l More product

specialization to achieve economies of scale

Greater emphasis on profitability using ASEAN-

Technology and financial support opportunities from MNCs

ASEAN-wide pool of talentprofitability using ASEANwide operations

A Balanced Approach

14

A Balanced Approach

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Komoditas Ekspor ASEAN Ke China:Penyangga Kebutuhan China (2008)

76.6Marble,travertine,ecaussinesetc

77.3

76.9

76.7

Ores&concentrates,nes

Zincores&concentrates

Niobium,tantalum,vanadiumores&concentrates

86

84.1

82.9

Zirconium & articles thereof, including waste & scrap

Ironoxides&hydroxides

compoundedrubber,unvulcanised,inprimaryforms

94 8

91.8

89.9

86

Iron ores & concentrates; including roasted iron pyrites

Alumuniumores&concentrates

Chromiumores&concentrates

Zirconium&articlesthereof,includingwaste&scrap

99.9

97

94.8

Uraniumorthoriumores&concentrates

Slag.Drossotherthangranulatedslag

Ironores&concentrates;includingroastedironpyrites

75 80 85 90 95 100

Percent

Source:ASEANEconomicCommonityChartbook2009

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Ekspor Utama ASEAN ke India:Ketergantungan India Atas Bahan Baku ASEAN (2008)

Country Commodity Shareoftotalexport(%)p ( )

BruneiDarussalam Crude petroleum oils 99.80%

Cambodia Palm oil & its fraction 88.80%

Myanmar Dried vegetables, shelled 61.70%

Indonesia Palm oil & its fraction 57.40%

Malaysia Crude petroleum oils 39 70%Malaysia Crude petroleum oils 39.70%

Singapore Petroleum oils, not crude 22.20%

VietNam Coal; briquettes, ovoid & similar solidf l f d f l

21.68%fuels manufactured from coal

Philippines Parts & access of motor vehicles 18.90%

Thailand Petroleum oils, not crude 6.40%

Source: ASEAN Secretariat Office

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ASEAN trade with China:Defisit Berlanjut

120

80

100

120

Import

40

60

ionUSD Export

0.9 1.7 4 3 2.0 2.7 4 0 2.9 3 7 1.5 6 4

0

20Bill

4.3 2.7 4.0 2.9 3.7 6.4 8.9 9.915.2

21.440

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Balanceoftrade

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ASEAN - India Trade:Surplus dengan Value Added?

35

25

30

15

20

Billion

USD

Export

Import

5

10

B

Balanceoftrade

0

199519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

08

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PELUANG &TANTANGAN INDONESIA :PELUANG &TANTANGAN INDONESIA :Strategi & Daya Saing Menentukan

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Perbandingan PDB ANGGOTA ASEAN (2008)

4,401.6China

273.2

511.8

1,209.7

Thailand

Indonesia

India

168.6

181.9

222.2

Philippines

Singapore

Malaysia

14.6

27.2

89.8

BruneiDarussalam

Myanmar

VietNam

5.3

11.2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500