Post on 15-Mar-2023
1
Basics of Security Project Management
Session 4 Planning
2
3
PlanningHappens after Project Initiation Phase
Initiation within System Integrator world begins with Sales
Initiation may also involve Sales Engineering ampor Engineering CAD Operations Finance
Planning ndash for Systems Integrators typically starts at receipt of project unless designbuild type project
4
Establish project plan
1 2 3 4
Schedule amp Communications
Plan
Project milestones amp
details
Budget Change Plan amp
Risk Contingencies
Planning
5
Learning Objectives
1
3
5 2
4
6 Identification of Planning steps
Applications of Skills
Risks identification amp considerations
Refinement of the Security Project Initiation
Stage
Team Planning
Consideration of Planning Resources
6
2
3
PlanningHappens after Project Initiation Phase
Initiation within System Integrator world begins with Sales
Initiation may also involve Sales Engineering ampor Engineering CAD Operations Finance
Planning ndash for Systems Integrators typically starts at receipt of project unless designbuild type project
4
Establish project plan
1 2 3 4
Schedule amp Communications
Plan
Project milestones amp
details
Budget Change Plan amp
Risk Contingencies
Planning
5
Learning Objectives
1
3
5 2
4
6 Identification of Planning steps
Applications of Skills
Risks identification amp considerations
Refinement of the Security Project Initiation
Stage
Team Planning
Consideration of Planning Resources
6
3
PlanningHappens after Project Initiation Phase
Initiation within System Integrator world begins with Sales
Initiation may also involve Sales Engineering ampor Engineering CAD Operations Finance
Planning ndash for Systems Integrators typically starts at receipt of project unless designbuild type project
4
Establish project plan
1 2 3 4
Schedule amp Communications
Plan
Project milestones amp
details
Budget Change Plan amp
Risk Contingencies
Planning
5
Learning Objectives
1
3
5 2
4
6 Identification of Planning steps
Applications of Skills
Risks identification amp considerations
Refinement of the Security Project Initiation
Stage
Team Planning
Consideration of Planning Resources
6
4
Establish project plan
1 2 3 4
Schedule amp Communications
Plan
Project milestones amp
details
Budget Change Plan amp
Risk Contingencies
Planning
5
Learning Objectives
1
3
5 2
4
6 Identification of Planning steps
Applications of Skills
Risks identification amp considerations
Refinement of the Security Project Initiation
Stage
Team Planning
Consideration of Planning Resources
6
5
Learning Objectives
1
3
5 2
4
6 Identification of Planning steps
Applications of Skills
Risks identification amp considerations
Refinement of the Security Project Initiation
Stage
Team Planning
Consideration of Planning Resources
6
7
Why have a PlanA defined plan is key to successful project management
Documenting the Project Plan providesKey customer informationTeam amp resource guidanceScope definitionTime linesCoordination requirementsContingency planningCreates Value
8
Project Planning ActivitiesKickoff
bull Internal project teambull High level overview
Review
bull Project ownershipbull Contract documentsbull Plans specs specific scope of workbull High level schedule items
Plan
bull Budget Estimates amp Cashflow requirementsbull Schedule amp Resource requirementsbull Communicationsbull Control amp Managementbull Internal Project Executive Escalation process
9
PLAN development is based on SCOPE
10
11
Questions to Answer During PlanningPoint 1 What did we sign up for
Point 2 Who amp what resources are needed
Point 3What are phases tasks milestones risks priorities
Point 4 Cash flow bonding insurance amp other cost requirements
12
Project Planning Information
Estimated Duration
Assumptions
Key Objectives
Resources
Major Risks
Executive Summary
Project Objectives
Project Scope
Estimated ProjectHours
Estimated Cost amp Profitability
Project Scope
Document
13
14
15
Planning
Project Plans amp Specs
Project Contractual Documents
Procurement Approach
Sole Source Justification
Design Criteria amp
Requirements
Performance requirements
Business ObjectivesResource Approach
Business Safeguards amp
Objectives
ldquoFail to Plan Plan to Failrdquo
establishing an aligned repeatable process
16
Planning Potential Information
6 Job Turnover amp Closing Requirements
5 Delivery Schedule Labor Requirements
4 IT Network Requirements amp Provisioning
3 Facility Job Site Rules amp Regulations
2 Site Information
1 Organizational Charts
17
Planning Always Think the JobStart from furthest point out in to the head end What devices How far What could happen along the way What other trades required When can we dohellip Are there phases How do we avoid go backs
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
8
Project Planning ActivitiesKickoff
bull Internal project teambull High level overview
Review
bull Project ownershipbull Contract documentsbull Plans specs specific scope of workbull High level schedule items
Plan
bull Budget Estimates amp Cashflow requirementsbull Schedule amp Resource requirementsbull Communicationsbull Control amp Managementbull Internal Project Executive Escalation process
9
PLAN development is based on SCOPE
10
11
Questions to Answer During PlanningPoint 1 What did we sign up for
Point 2 Who amp what resources are needed
Point 3What are phases tasks milestones risks priorities
Point 4 Cash flow bonding insurance amp other cost requirements
12
Project Planning Information
Estimated Duration
Assumptions
Key Objectives
Resources
Major Risks
Executive Summary
Project Objectives
Project Scope
Estimated ProjectHours
Estimated Cost amp Profitability
Project Scope
Document
13
14
15
Planning
Project Plans amp Specs
Project Contractual Documents
Procurement Approach
Sole Source Justification
Design Criteria amp
Requirements
Performance requirements
Business ObjectivesResource Approach
Business Safeguards amp
Objectives
ldquoFail to Plan Plan to Failrdquo
establishing an aligned repeatable process
16
Planning Potential Information
6 Job Turnover amp Closing Requirements
5 Delivery Schedule Labor Requirements
4 IT Network Requirements amp Provisioning
3 Facility Job Site Rules amp Regulations
2 Site Information
1 Organizational Charts
17
Planning Always Think the JobStart from furthest point out in to the head end What devices How far What could happen along the way What other trades required When can we dohellip Are there phases How do we avoid go backs
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
9
PLAN development is based on SCOPE
10
11
Questions to Answer During PlanningPoint 1 What did we sign up for
Point 2 Who amp what resources are needed
Point 3What are phases tasks milestones risks priorities
Point 4 Cash flow bonding insurance amp other cost requirements
12
Project Planning Information
Estimated Duration
Assumptions
Key Objectives
Resources
Major Risks
Executive Summary
Project Objectives
Project Scope
Estimated ProjectHours
Estimated Cost amp Profitability
Project Scope
Document
13
14
15
Planning
Project Plans amp Specs
Project Contractual Documents
Procurement Approach
Sole Source Justification
Design Criteria amp
Requirements
Performance requirements
Business ObjectivesResource Approach
Business Safeguards amp
Objectives
ldquoFail to Plan Plan to Failrdquo
establishing an aligned repeatable process
16
Planning Potential Information
6 Job Turnover amp Closing Requirements
5 Delivery Schedule Labor Requirements
4 IT Network Requirements amp Provisioning
3 Facility Job Site Rules amp Regulations
2 Site Information
1 Organizational Charts
17
Planning Always Think the JobStart from furthest point out in to the head end What devices How far What could happen along the way What other trades required When can we dohellip Are there phases How do we avoid go backs
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
10
11
Questions to Answer During PlanningPoint 1 What did we sign up for
Point 2 Who amp what resources are needed
Point 3What are phases tasks milestones risks priorities
Point 4 Cash flow bonding insurance amp other cost requirements
12
Project Planning Information
Estimated Duration
Assumptions
Key Objectives
Resources
Major Risks
Executive Summary
Project Objectives
Project Scope
Estimated ProjectHours
Estimated Cost amp Profitability
Project Scope
Document
13
14
15
Planning
Project Plans amp Specs
Project Contractual Documents
Procurement Approach
Sole Source Justification
Design Criteria amp
Requirements
Performance requirements
Business ObjectivesResource Approach
Business Safeguards amp
Objectives
ldquoFail to Plan Plan to Failrdquo
establishing an aligned repeatable process
16
Planning Potential Information
6 Job Turnover amp Closing Requirements
5 Delivery Schedule Labor Requirements
4 IT Network Requirements amp Provisioning
3 Facility Job Site Rules amp Regulations
2 Site Information
1 Organizational Charts
17
Planning Always Think the JobStart from furthest point out in to the head end What devices How far What could happen along the way What other trades required When can we dohellip Are there phases How do we avoid go backs
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
11
Questions to Answer During PlanningPoint 1 What did we sign up for
Point 2 Who amp what resources are needed
Point 3What are phases tasks milestones risks priorities
Point 4 Cash flow bonding insurance amp other cost requirements
12
Project Planning Information
Estimated Duration
Assumptions
Key Objectives
Resources
Major Risks
Executive Summary
Project Objectives
Project Scope
Estimated ProjectHours
Estimated Cost amp Profitability
Project Scope
Document
13
14
15
Planning
Project Plans amp Specs
Project Contractual Documents
Procurement Approach
Sole Source Justification
Design Criteria amp
Requirements
Performance requirements
Business ObjectivesResource Approach
Business Safeguards amp
Objectives
ldquoFail to Plan Plan to Failrdquo
establishing an aligned repeatable process
16
Planning Potential Information
6 Job Turnover amp Closing Requirements
5 Delivery Schedule Labor Requirements
4 IT Network Requirements amp Provisioning
3 Facility Job Site Rules amp Regulations
2 Site Information
1 Organizational Charts
17
Planning Always Think the JobStart from furthest point out in to the head end What devices How far What could happen along the way What other trades required When can we dohellip Are there phases How do we avoid go backs
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
12
Project Planning Information
Estimated Duration
Assumptions
Key Objectives
Resources
Major Risks
Executive Summary
Project Objectives
Project Scope
Estimated ProjectHours
Estimated Cost amp Profitability
Project Scope
Document
13
14
15
Planning
Project Plans amp Specs
Project Contractual Documents
Procurement Approach
Sole Source Justification
Design Criteria amp
Requirements
Performance requirements
Business ObjectivesResource Approach
Business Safeguards amp
Objectives
ldquoFail to Plan Plan to Failrdquo
establishing an aligned repeatable process
16
Planning Potential Information
6 Job Turnover amp Closing Requirements
5 Delivery Schedule Labor Requirements
4 IT Network Requirements amp Provisioning
3 Facility Job Site Rules amp Regulations
2 Site Information
1 Organizational Charts
17
Planning Always Think the JobStart from furthest point out in to the head end What devices How far What could happen along the way What other trades required When can we dohellip Are there phases How do we avoid go backs
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
13
14
15
Planning
Project Plans amp Specs
Project Contractual Documents
Procurement Approach
Sole Source Justification
Design Criteria amp
Requirements
Performance requirements
Business ObjectivesResource Approach
Business Safeguards amp
Objectives
ldquoFail to Plan Plan to Failrdquo
establishing an aligned repeatable process
16
Planning Potential Information
6 Job Turnover amp Closing Requirements
5 Delivery Schedule Labor Requirements
4 IT Network Requirements amp Provisioning
3 Facility Job Site Rules amp Regulations
2 Site Information
1 Organizational Charts
17
Planning Always Think the JobStart from furthest point out in to the head end What devices How far What could happen along the way What other trades required When can we dohellip Are there phases How do we avoid go backs
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
14
15
Planning
Project Plans amp Specs
Project Contractual Documents
Procurement Approach
Sole Source Justification
Design Criteria amp
Requirements
Performance requirements
Business ObjectivesResource Approach
Business Safeguards amp
Objectives
ldquoFail to Plan Plan to Failrdquo
establishing an aligned repeatable process
16
Planning Potential Information
6 Job Turnover amp Closing Requirements
5 Delivery Schedule Labor Requirements
4 IT Network Requirements amp Provisioning
3 Facility Job Site Rules amp Regulations
2 Site Information
1 Organizational Charts
17
Planning Always Think the JobStart from furthest point out in to the head end What devices How far What could happen along the way What other trades required When can we dohellip Are there phases How do we avoid go backs
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
15
Planning
Project Plans amp Specs
Project Contractual Documents
Procurement Approach
Sole Source Justification
Design Criteria amp
Requirements
Performance requirements
Business ObjectivesResource Approach
Business Safeguards amp
Objectives
ldquoFail to Plan Plan to Failrdquo
establishing an aligned repeatable process
16
Planning Potential Information
6 Job Turnover amp Closing Requirements
5 Delivery Schedule Labor Requirements
4 IT Network Requirements amp Provisioning
3 Facility Job Site Rules amp Regulations
2 Site Information
1 Organizational Charts
17
Planning Always Think the JobStart from furthest point out in to the head end What devices How far What could happen along the way What other trades required When can we dohellip Are there phases How do we avoid go backs
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
16
Planning Potential Information
6 Job Turnover amp Closing Requirements
5 Delivery Schedule Labor Requirements
4 IT Network Requirements amp Provisioning
3 Facility Job Site Rules amp Regulations
2 Site Information
1 Organizational Charts
17
Planning Always Think the JobStart from furthest point out in to the head end What devices How far What could happen along the way What other trades required When can we dohellip Are there phases How do we avoid go backs
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
17
Planning Always Think the JobStart from furthest point out in to the head end What devices How far What could happen along the way What other trades required When can we dohellip Are there phases How do we avoid go backs
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
18
Planning Site Information
bull Existing Conditionsbull Special Operational requirementsbull Special Site Conditionsbull Special equipment requiredbull Delivery requirementsbull Labor requirementsbull Safety Training
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
19
Planning Project TeamProject Manager
Your Company
EngineeringCAD
Your Company
Labor
Combo
Subcontracted
Outside
Technicians
Inside
IT Network
Typ Your Company
Outside Resources
Coordinated
Finance
Your Company
Procurement
Your Company
Suppliers
Outside
Cash Flow Mgmt
Combo
Service amp SupportYour Company
Subconrtacted
Outside
Project Assistant
Your Company
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
20
Planning Always Think the JobProject Area What could go wrong
Scope Poorly defined or understood
Integration Lack of knowledge engineering pre-configurationtesting mistakes
Cost Estimate Inaccuracies missing parts or labor subcontractor labor missed scope
Schedule Delays lack of coordination critical path undefined holidaysick time working hours
Resources Miss management unassignedoverbooked crew size skills needed safety certifications
IT Network Lack of coordination network not available lack of knowledge resource shortage certifications needed
Communication Cadence lack of documentation use of wrong words missed updating
Other Risks Weather fire activities strike acquisition
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
21
Planning Scope Verification
Estimate Validation Plans Specifications RFIs Device schedule amp counts Conduit wire runs wire types Risers Fire alarm amp elevator connections Power IT amp Network connections Ceiling amp wall types Doorsframeshardware elevators
Documentation Door Hardware Schedules Mark Ups Notes Dates Engineered Drawings Pricing Presentation Breakouts Technical Specification Response
Plan amp Spec Review amp Take Offs
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
22
Broad Categories of RISK
2
3
4
5
1 Market Risk
Financial Risk
Technology Risk
People Risk
Structure Process Risk
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
23
Importance of Planning Project Risk Management
bull Project Life Cycle ndash risk variances change
bull Risk considerations often overlooked
bull Risk planning can help improve success
bull Are all projects worth accepting
bull Where are highest exposures
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
24
Project Risk Management
Enter phase Start project
Knowledge Area
Project PhaseInitiation Planning Execution Monitoring Closing
Risk Overview Risk Analysis
Plan ID Risk Risk Mgmt ID Qualitative Risk Quantitative RiskPlan Riskresponse
Manage risks document events non-events
Monitor Control amp close out Risks
SOW complete wapproval
Exit phase End projectInitiation Closing
Monitoring amp Controlling Processes
Planning Processes
ExecutionProcesses
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
25
Negative Positive Risks Understanding potential problems that may occur amp how they may impact
project success
Negative risk management is like a form of insurance
Positive risks result in good things sometimes called opportunities
Review understand your approach to risk vs project ownerrsquos approach
How amp when do you identify a project as being too risky
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
26
Subset of project management plan May include
o Methodologyo Roles amp responsibilitieso Budgetingo Timingo Risk categories
o Definition of probability and impacto Stakeholder toleranceso Reporting formatso Trackingo Probability and impact matrix ()
Risk Management PlanDescribes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
27
Examples of risks to Security Projects
Typical Security Project Risks
Payment Cadence
Schedule Delays
Equipment Delivery amp Installation
Changes
Closing Codes AHJ Approvals
Labor
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
28
Project Planning KnowledgeDuring project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Budget allocated to managing the risk
Resources assigned to handling the risk
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
Actions the team should take when the risk actually occurs
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
29
Events that result in the risk actually occurring
During project scope review planning amp risk management planning team members identify risk triggers These warning signs represent the
Project Planning Knowledge
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
30
Project Planning KnowledgeProject managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Charter
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
31
Project managers may document possible project risks in the
Risk Register
Project Planning Knowledge
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
32
Planning Risk Management
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
33
32
1 Inputs
Tools amp Techniques
Output
Plan Risk Management First Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Communication Management Plan Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets
Planning meetings and analysisProcess to followKey Players included
Project Risk Management Plan
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
34
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Cost and time
Type and category
Formal and informal
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
35
Qualitative risk analysis typically involves examining historical information to make informed decisions for each possible outcome Quantitative risk analysis identifies the
Magnitude and probability
Project Planning Knowledge
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
36
Plan Risk Management
Importance
Risk Categories
Plan Risk Mgmt
Degree type visibility of risk management arecommensurate to importance
Establish agreed-upon basis for risk evaluation Provide resources amp time for risk management activities
ID standard risk categories to ensure remembered Standard list of risk categories helps identify risk
considerations now amp in future
Business Risk gain or loss Insurable Risk only a risk of loss (ie fire theft personal
injury business interruption etc)
PrimaryTypes of
Risk
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
37
The primary output of this process risk management plano documents the processes amp procedures to implement to manage risk
throughout a project
Project Team should review and understand the organizational and sponsor risks amp approaches to risk
A Project Risk Register can be created in which to document potential risks amp plans
The level of plan detail varies with project scope type amp requirements
Planning Risk Management
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
38
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Contingencies
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
39
Opportunities
Planning KnowledgeProject managers identify preventive actions for project risks They also need to prepare for risk events that could represent
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
40
Effective project managers resolve project risks with high priority values on which basis
Utmost urgency
Budget allocation
When scheduled
Resource availability
Planning Knowledge
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
41
Utmost urgency
Planning KnowledgeEffective project managers resolve project risks with a high priority value on which basis
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
42
Contingency PlanningContingency Plan ndash predefined actions to take when an identified risk event occursTypes of contingenciesndash Laborndash Cost overrunsndash Deliveryndash Schedule delaysndash Change in ownership
Fallback Plans - developed for risks with high impact on project objectives Come into effect when reduction of risk is not effective
Contingency Reserves - provisions to reduce cost or schedule overruns
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
43
Planning Scope Management
Expect the best plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised - Denis Waitley
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
44
Planning Contract Management
bull Signed contract documents reviewed by internal teambull Insurances Bonds in placebull Labor Payroll requirements amp reporting definedbull Change Order process paper pricing approvals
understoodbull Project Manager authority levels definedbull Contract constraints consideredbull Default clause reviewed amp understoodbull Warranty clausebull Taxes
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
45
bull Understand all work requiredbull Understand exceptions clarifications work by othersbull Overall project schedulebull Security scope against schedule
bull Submittal Engineering Processbull Initial AutoCAD project plan development for approvalbull Device plansbull Risersbull Detail drawingsbull Specific detail coordination ie doorhardware schedule trenching
power conduit pathways IT amp networks
Security Scope Management
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
46
Scope Statement defined summary Includeso Project Justification business objectives evaluating future trade-offso Project Product summary of end result ndash what are we deliveringo Project Deliverables summary of deliverable items for project
completion o Project Objectives quantifiable criteria for success
Supporting Detail documentation of all assumptions and constraints
Scope Management Plan ndash process amp methods too Manage scopeo Understand expected deliveryo Manage control change procedureso Classify track amp monitor progresso Control what is is not in the project
Scope Planning Outputs
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
47
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure - deliverable-oriented breakdown of projects into smaller components Work breakdown structure - key project deliverable that organizes work into manageable sections
Decomposition ndash based on WBS Subdivides major deliverables into manageable components
oPhases amp TasksoMilestones ndash critical path items tasksoCost ndash could be assignedoTask durations definedoResource Assignments
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
48
Improve accuracy cost time resource estimatesDefines baseline for performance measurementClearly assigns responsibilitiesReduces risk of higher cost redundancy time delays and poor productivityDefines ldquowhatrdquo you are doing Work Breakout Schedule is the visible evidence of scope definition
Scope Definition InputsScope StatementConstraints ndash consider contractual provisionsAssumptionsOther Planning OutputsHistorical information
Scope DefinitionSubdivide major deliverables to smaller manageable components
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
49
Project Time Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
50
The processes required to ensure timely completion of a project Processes include
o Activity definitiono Activity sequencingo Activity duration estimatingo Schedule developmento Schedule controlo Personal time management
50
Project Time Management
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
51
Schedule Execution Learning ObjectivesUnderstand and use critical path analysis
Describe use of techniques to shorten project schedules
Basic concepts behind critical chain scheduling amp Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Discuss controlling and managing changes to the project schedule
How software can assist in project time management
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
52
Execution Schedule Learning Objectives
Understand importance of project schedules amp time management Identify major components of project schedule definition Learn how dependencies assist in activity sequencing Identify various tools and techniques help project managers perform
Activity duration estimating and schedule development Gantt chart use schedule tracking amp realignment
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
53
Schedule Definition Benefitsbull Identifies Phases Tasks Critical Path itemsbull Help prevent work slippagebull Provides task understanding within overall
project bull Defines impact upon the projectbull Facilitates communication amp coordinationbull May help prevent changesbull Focuses team amp results in higher qualitybull Validates labor estimates type cost timebull Role identificationbull Provides graphic of project hierarchy
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
54
Work Breakdown ScheduleHigh Level definesmMini-projects within ProjectProject Phases Categories Systems- Some idea of phase timing- Task time assignments amp dependencies roll up to phase time framesDetailed Tasks per PhaseMilestones ndash specific items critical path or of particular importanceTasks- Easily defined important to overall completion of work- Rely on specific resources- Require specific time estimates (typically hours or days)- Have a meaningful conclusion and deliverable- Generally can be completed without interruption- May depend on others
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
55
Cost overrun $211 billion (145)Delay 1 year (20)Country UK
THE CHANNEL TUNNEL
Cost overrun $161billion (163)Delay Ahead of scheduleCountry China
THREE GORGES DAM
THE BIG DIG
Cost overrun $134 Billion(421)Delay 9years(128)Country US
JUBILEE LINE EXTENSION
Cost overrun $4 Billion(84)Delay 2 years(128)Country UK
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
57
Importance of Project Schedules
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
58
Importance of Project SchedulesActivity Definition Project schedules grow from the scope of work
o Project charter start and end dates budget informationo Scope amp WBS define what will be accomplished
Activity Definition specific Task definition Result more realistic time duration estimates Verify labor requirements
Activity Duration Estimating Occurs based on Task definition Duration the expected time an activity is allocated Monitoring includes activity time plus elapsed time Effort expressed in work days or hours required Resources responsible for the work important for task
creation time estimates review
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
59
Activity Sequencing Involves reviewing activities and determining dependencies You must determine dependencies in order to use critical
path analysis
Schedule Development Uses results of time management processes to determine start
end dates of activities Goal create realistic schedule a basis for monitoring progress
within time dimension Important tools include Gantt charts PERT analysis critical
path analysis critical chain scheduling
Importance of Project Schedules
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
60
Project Scheduling Time Cost Tools
Gantt charts standard format for displaying project scheduleSymbols include
bull Black diamond milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration
bull Thick black bars summary tasksbull Lighter horizontal bars tasksbull Arrows dependencies between tasks
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
61
Critical Path Method A project network analysis technique used to predict total project duration Defines activities serices that determines the earliest time the project can be completed Critical path is the longest path through the network diagram with the least slack or float
Finding the Critical Path Develop a good project network diagram Add durations for each activities on each path in the diagram The longest path is the critical path
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data Project schedule updates important Critical path may change as actual start and finish dates are updated Once you know project completion will slip find resolution with the project owner
Critical Path
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
62
Project Network Diagrams
Show project activity sequencing Schematic display of logical relationships or
sequence of activities Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) network
diagrams Circles are activity start and end points Activity motion represented by arrows Shows only finish-to-start dependencies
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
6363
Determining Critical Path
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
64
Using Critical Path Analysis
Misconceptionso The critical only accounts for time o It does not account for activity prioritieso There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of two or more
paths are the sameo The critical path can change as the project progresses
If activities on critical path take longer than planned project completion will slip unless corrective action is taken
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
65
Critical path helps when making schedule trade-offs Free slack or free float time an activity can be delayed without delaying early start of
immediately following activities Total slack or total float time an activity may be delayed from early start without
delaying the project finish date A forward pass determines early start finish dates A backward pass determines late start finish dates
Critical Path Analysis amp Schedule Changes
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
66
FOR DISCUSSION
Why do schedule issues often cause the most conflicts on projects
66
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
67
Planning Cost Management
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late
- William Shakespeare
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
68
Goal ensure project is completed within budgetCost of resources neededldquolife-cycle costingrdquo decisionsFinancial impacts of working outside project scopeInformation needs stakeholdersControllable vs uncontrollable costsEstimating reviews include WBS to improve accuracyEstimating validated by people performing the work
Planning Cost Management
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
69
Estimated costs should be utilized unless improvedManage actual costs to estimatesRevise Plans as work is completedCorrective action should be taken swiftly
69
Planning Cost Management
Use experience history to improve estimating amp cost management practices amp accuracy
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
70
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates are prepared during the initial planning phase for a new PPS
The goal in preparing this estimate is to arrive at a cost figure that can be used for getting new PPS systems into an operating budget cycle
Estimates are used for budgetary purposes they have a large contingency such as plus or minus 10 to 20 percent
Preliminary Design Estimates If the PPS project is part of a larger construction project the process should require a preliminary design estimate
This estimate should be developed at the 50 percent design review stage and will normally have a contingency of plus or minus 10 percent
Final Design Estimates The estimate is refined as the project advances to the 100 completion
Estimate is developed using the completed documents drawings and schedules
Type of Cost Estimates for Security
Projects
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
71
Estimate Type Description
Budgetary Estimates Budgetary estimates prepared during initiation phase for a new PPS Goal is to arrive at cost used for acceptance in operating budget cycle Budgetary Estimates are used for budgeting purposes Often include contingency of 10-25 depending on definition
Preliminary Design Estimates As part of construction project a preliminary estimate Estimate more developed 5 -75 design review Normally includes 10-20 contingency
Final Estimates Obtained in ldquoBid Processrdquo typically by number of qualified bidders Typically bid at 75-80 CD or higher Developed from defined specifications plans drawings schedules
Estimate Types for Security Projects
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
74
Step Description Associated Tasks
1 Define estimatersquos purpose
Determine estimatersquos purpose required level of detail and overall scope Determine who will receive the estimate
2 Develop Estimating Plan
Determine the composition of the cost estimating team and develop the master schedule
Determine who will do the independent cost estimate Outline the cost estimating approach Develop the estimate timeline
3 Define Program Characteristics
In a technical baseline description document identify the programrsquos purpose and its system and performance characteristics as well as all system configurations
Identify any technology implications Develop the program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy Determine the relationship to other existing systems including predecessor or similar legacy systems Identify support (manpower training etc) and security needs and risk items Determine system quantities for development test and production Develop deployment and maintenance plans
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
75
Step Description Associated Tasks
4 Determine Estimating Structure
Define a work breakdown structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element structure)
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers Develop a cost estimating checklist
5 Identify Ground Rules amp Assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes Identify global and program-specific assumptions such as the estimatersquos base year
including time-phasing and life cycle Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy Identify any schedule or budget constraints inflation assumptions and travel costs Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing facilities or
new modification or development Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors Determine technology refresh cycles technology assumptions and new technology to
be developed Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings Describe effects of new ways of doing business
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
76
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
6 Obtain Data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant technical programmatic cost and risk data
Investigate possible data sources Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting inflation learning and quantity
adjustments Analyze the data for cost drivers trends and outliers and compare results against rules of thumb
and standard factors derived from historical data Interview data sources and document all pertinent information including an assessment of data
reliability and accuracy Store data for future estimates
7
Develop a Point Estimate and
Compare it to an independent
Cost Estimate
Develop the cost model estimating each WBS element using the best methodology from the data collected and including all estimating assumptions
Express costs in constant year dollars Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur based on the
program schedule Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double counting and omitted costs Compare estimate against the independent cost estimate and examine where and why there are
differences Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar Update the model as more data become available or as changes occur and compare results
against previous estimates
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
77
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Cost Estimating Process for Security Projects
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
78
Step Description Associated Tasks
8Conduct
Sensitivity Analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key assumptions Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or quantities Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are most affected by
changes
9Conduct Risk amp
Uncertainty Analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost schedule and technical risk associated with each WBS element
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability Develop minimum most likely and maximum ranges for each risk element Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use Ensure that risks are correlated Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (eg Monte Carlo simulation) to develop a
confidence interval around the point estimate Identify the confidence level of the point estimate Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to track
and mitigate risks
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security Projects
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
79
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
10 Document the Estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result
Document the purpose of the estimate the team that prepared it and who approved the estimate and on what date
Describe the program its schedule and the technical baseline used to create the estimate Present the programrsquos time-phased life-cycle cost Discuss all ground rules and assumptions Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document for all
data sources how the data were normalized Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each WBS
elementrsquos cost (prefer more detail over less) Describe the results of the risk uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and whether any
contingency funds were identified Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
80
High-Quality Estimating Process for Security ProjectsStep Description Associated Tasks
11
Present the Estimate for Management
Approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented life-cycle cost estimate Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any uncertainties Compare the estimate to an independent cost estimate (ICE) and explain any differences Compare the estimate (life-cycle cost estimate (LCCE)) or independent cost estimate to the budget
with enough detail to easily defend it by showing how it is accurate complete and high in quality Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can easily comprehend
the basis for the estimate results Make backup slides available for more probing questions Act on and document feedback from management Seek acceptance of the estimate
12
Update the estimate to
reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions to keep it current as the program passes through new phases and milestones
Replace estimates with EVM EAC and independent estimate at completion (EAC) from the integrated EVM system
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates Perform a post mortem and document lessons learned for those elements whose actual costs or
schedules differ from the estimate Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
81
Project Quality Management
First have a definite clear practical ideal a goal an objective Second have the necessary means to achieve your ends wisdom money materials and methods Third adjust all your means to that endrdquo - Aristotle
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
82
Processes required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was designed
Includes overall management functions that determinequality policyObjectivesResponsibilities
Implemented by quality planning quality control quality assurance and quality improvement
Project Quality Management
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
83
3 major quality processesQuality Planning ID quality standards relevant to the project
(Planning)Quality Assurance evaluate overall project performance to
provide confidence that project will satisfy relevant quality standards (Execution Monitoring)Quality Control monitoring specific results to comply with quality
standards Eliminate unsatisfactory results amp causes
Project Quality Management
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
86
Project deliverablesManagement cost and schedule performance resultsAwareness of statistical quality control
o Prevention and inspection o Decrease errors o Sampling result conforms variable
samplingo Special Causes - unusual events o Random causeso Tolerances (acceptable range)o Control limits (result falls within range)
Quality Control
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
87
InputsoWork results ndash process and product resultsoQuality Management PlanoOperational DefinitionsoChecklists
OutputsoMeasured improvementoAcceptance Reject decisions improveoRework diminishes
oFrequent cause of project overrunsoCompleted checklistsoProcess Adjustments correctivepreventive
actions
Planning Quality Control
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
88
Tools amp TechniquesInspection ndash verify test confirm results with requirementsControl Charts ndash plot results over timePareto diagrams ndash frequency of occurrence identifies category of result
8020 rule guides corrective actionStatistical sampling ndash selected populations of interestFlowchartingTrend Analysis ndash forecast future outcomes based on historical results
o Technical performance o Cost to Actual varianceso Schedule performance
Planning Quality Control
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
89
Planning Internal External Team Assignments
Skill sets amp resources neededIndividuals identifiedWhen each is neededWhere are theyCertifications RequiredTraining needs completeInterpersonal compatibility
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
90
Executives Project ExecutiveProject ManagerProject SuperintendentLead Technician Installation TechniciansProject AdministratorIT TechniciansSystem Engineers amp CAD DesignersProcurement Accounts PayableReceivableCustomer Service
Planning Internal Team Members
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
91
Planning External Team MembersArchitectsEngineersConstruction ManagerGeneral ContractorSecurity ConsultantsSubcontractorsProperty Management ServicesAuthority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ)Manufacturer Reps
91
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
92
End User Personnel amp Stakeholders
Management ndash approvals decisions paymentsSystem Administrators amp Operators
oSystem controloDaily system operation onboarding changesoRequires training amp ongoing communication
Maintenance and Engineering oEnable site accessoSite ldquoeyes amp earsrdquooOperational SOPs
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
93
Human Factors The Project Team
bull Background Checksbull Drug-Free Workplacebull Credit Worthinessbull Appearance amp Cleanlinessbull Attitudebull Skill Sets Abilities bull Training Requirements
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
94
Execution Meetings Types Design Meetings Construction Job Meetings ndash weekly
typical Safety Job Site Project Team Meetings Internal Team Meetings Training Sessions
A Security Project Manager wears a lot of hats and is involved on many levels with different skill sets
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
95
Communication amp Coordination Meetings Internal amp external project meetingsMeeting cadence agendas amp documentation Relationships to manage Customer End User General Contractor Security Consultant Project Team Subcontractors Other Contractors IP IT Groups
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
96
TrainingTrainers system certifications amp
knowledgeTraining as part of Project ScheduleTraining materials amp space rqmtsUser participation hands-on
demonstrate understandingAsk reinforcing questionsHold QA session
Project ExecutivesGeneral ContractorOwner End-user Management Security
FacilitiesSubcontractor(s) amp 3rd PartiesDoor hardware contractorsManufacturers amp suppliersIT Network ServicesSecurity personnelAHJ ndash authorities having juristiction
Coordination
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
97
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
98
Why Plan Critical to project success Defines a repeatable aligned organizational process Involves key project departments amp players Includes executive commitment amp oversight Reviews contract scope budget labor time definitions Defines constraints contingencies Reduces risk project size does not matter
99
Planning for Success
)
99
Planning for Success
)