Post on 27-Feb-2023
Lane Farrell
Professor Loser
Econ 6285
16 December 2014
Trade Development in Argentina: 1980 to Today
1. Introduction
Argentina was praised as one of the leading developing
countries in Latin America for some time, but that is no
longer the case. Argentina has a fascinating history of
economic rise and decline that led it to become one of the
most studied, paradoxical countries in the world. At the
break of the 20th century it seemed like Argentina was
destined to take a seat as one of the major power players in
the global economy, but since then the trends have reversed.
There have been periods of growth, such as the modest
commodity boom in the past decade, but the growth periods
have been short cyclical occurrences that have not changed
the business as usual trajectory towards economic
stagnation.
Argentina’s economic history can be studied through many
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different lenses; this essay will analyze trade. This paper
gives a brief country profile and background on the
political and trade climate pre-dating 1980; following this
is a detailed trade history from 1980 to the present. The
cutoff date was chosen as 1980 because there have been no
military coups since that year. This will allow for a more
fluent and comprehensive narrative.
2. Key Indicators Needed to Understand Argentina 1
Before diving into the history of Argentina’s politics
and trade it is useful to familiarize yourself with a quick
profile of the country’s data.
Name of Indicator2 Value
Capital City Buenos Aires
Currency Peso
Year of Independence 1816
1 If you have a strong background in Argentinean political economy you may want to skip this section and the following.They are meant to give the laymen reader sufficient background to understand the rest of the discussion. 2 All indicators provided are the most recent values released. No indicator dates further back then 2010.
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Population 41,450,000
Land Mass 1,074,000 miles
Unemployment Rate 7.5%
GDP per Capita $14,715
Nominal GDP3 $404,483,000,000
Public Debt (% of
GDP)
41.4
GINI Index 43.6 (49th in the
world)
Human Development
Index
.797 (45th in the
world)
Argentina was founded by Spain in the mid 1700s, and
declared its independence in the 19th century. Their
Constitution was chartered in 1853 and is still in force
today.
3. A Brief History of Argentinian Politics Before 1980
3 Refer to attachment 2 for definitions of technical economic terms and acronyms.
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Argentina has had a complicated and lengthy political
history since declaring independence in 1816. As such, I
will only highlight the major events that define its current
state in the global market. Argentina was considered a
Latin America success story through the early 20th century;
however, when the Great Depression (1929) struck it found
itself in a comparatively mild financial crisis. Its
trading partners decreased the volume of requested exports,
capital flows decreased, and the country (much like the rest
of Latin America) turned inward for growth via ISI4
policies. The period associated with the Great Depression
is often referred to as the “infamous decade” in Latin
America; it was defined by political strife and fraud. WWII
followed this decade and helped to pull Argentina out of
their economic downtown turn.
Most power transitioned peacefully before WWI, but that
changed with the first military coup in 1930. There were
five more coups before a peaceful administration transition;
the last coop happened in 1976. While the time period was 4 Refer to attachment 2 for definitions of technical economic terms and acronyms.
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an unstable one, a handful of great leaders and thinkers
came forth. One of the most notable was Juan Peron, the
leader of Argentina’s populist movement.
Juan Peron is perhaps the most well known man to come
from Argentina; his legacy thrives today. He came to power
a few years after the Great Depression with a successful
coup, and was later elected President. His administration
is well known for implementing five-year economic plans, and
his political party- Peronism or Justicialism- is still
present today. Peron was taken out of power by a civil war
in 1955. The period leading up to Peron’s next rise to
power in 1973 was overshadowed by a weak economy. After
Peron died, hyperinflation took off amidst widespread
violence and terrorist activity. The next major event in
Argentina’s political landscape was the Falklands Islands
War in 1982; the war resulted in British victory. The
implications of the war on Argentina’s trade development
will be discussed in section five.
4. A Brief History of Argentinian Trade Before 1980
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The Great Depression demolished Argentina’s open trade
model in the “infamous decade.” Their growth had been
reliant upon successful free and open trade, but the
depression almost eliminated the demand for exports with
devastating effect. The first major steps towards recovery
were taken by Juan Peron’s administration.
Peron announced his initial five-year plan in 1947.
Among many things, it worked on improving the countries
domestic infrastructure. This was a crucial action since
better infrastructure would allow for heavier, more
efficient and profitable trade flow. Improving
infrastructure was a start, but the government still held
immense control over many aspects of the economy that
restricted trade and growth. The administration went as far
as to set prices on local restaurant menus. Such overly
involved actions severely limited the country’s potential
growth and started to staunch FDI. Investors were not eager
to invest in a country that was trying to steer to the
economy with such an active hand. It is inevitable that a
government cannot do it all, and if they try to take on too
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much the country becomes easily susceptible to collapse.
Argentina grew during this time, but more slowly then the
rest of the world.
The second five-year plan was released in 1952. This
plans primary purpose was to promote growth of heavy
industry and foreign investment. It also created the IAPI
(Argentine Institute for the Promotion of Trade); their
purpose was to buy crops at a lower than international cost
to stimulate industrialization. The second plan played a
role in Argentina developing trade agreements with quite a
few countries from the EU and Brazil.
World War Two also had major effects on trade, for
instance it forced commodity prices to rise, and import
prices rose even more. Argentina saw record setting trade
surpluses during WWI and WWII in addition to having run a
trade surplus since 1900 (excluding the Great Depression).
At this point in history it looked as though Argentina was
bound for success. After the war Europe and the US were the
two largest industrial exporters. This made Latin American
industries relatively more vulnerable to external shock,
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especially those industries rooted in countries with open
trade policy. It was not much later that Argentina took up
autarquic military industrial policies that further
influenced the countries growth projections.
The 1960s is often referred to as the “Golden Era,”
but Argentina experienced moderate to slow growth. Most
scholars attribute this to the failing of ISI and the
associated inflation attacks. Argentina addressed the
problem by lowering tariffs and eliminating most other trade
barriers. Argentina’s Golden Era was funded largely by
foreign investors which made the country extremely
vulnerable to foreign external shocks.
The graph5 below depicts Argentina’s GDP per capita as
a percentage of GDP per capita in 8 other countries and the
OECD. After WWII Argentina’s relative wealth peaked;
however, the growth trend reversed into the 21st century.
5 The graph is from the Economist article, “Argentina: A Century of Decline.”
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5. Argentinian Trade Post-1980 6
5.1 Major Events and their Implications on Trade
Scholars often refer to the 1980s in Latin America as
the “lost decade.” During the 1980s Latin America faced a
staggering debt crisis; Argentina specifically saw collapse
in 1981, one year prior to setting a record deficit. Their
policy was quite loose, as they had borrowed expansive loans
over the past twenty years from international creditors. A
large potion of the borrowed money was invested in domestic
infrastructure. These actions may have gone unpunished if
the world economy had not slowed down; however, it did. As
a result the returns Argentina sowed from the new
development projects were handicapped.
6 This section will refer extensively to attachment 1 – a timeline of major events affecting Argentina from 1980 to 2013.
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Another reason for the debt crisis was a boom in oil
prices. Latin America is well endowed with petroleum
resources. During the 1970s and 1980s oil prices soared
which prompted many aggressive borrowers to borrow even
more. They thought the oil boom, or more appropriately
bubble, would lead to profits they could pay off their debt
with. Ultimately foreign debt exceeded earning power, and
many countries - including Argentina - were forced to
default on a large portion of loans. Unsurprisingly, this
damaged quite a few trading relationships.
At the time Argentina was also dealing with deep-rooted
civil unrest due to a cruel dictator, Jorge Rafael Videla.
He was charged for gross crimes against humanity; however,
before he was taken out of power his administration had
levied a hefty blow to the country’s morale. Videla was
responsible for issuing a lot of the debt before he was
arrested.
The Falklands War7 was the defining event for Argentina
in the 1980s. The war began on April 2, 1982 and lasted for
7 Sometimes called “The Dirty War.”
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ten weeks against Britain, who had been Argentina’s leading
trade partner until the war. Many people believe that
Argentina’s wealth was derived from its generous natural
resource endowment (particularly with respect to
agriculture), open markets, and Britain. As such, the war
substantially damaged their export model, and Argentina did
not have sufficient institutions in place to change their
trade policy to cope with the external shock. Shortly after
the war their inflation soared to over 900%. After defeat,
Argentina stopped trading at high volume with Britain; their
top five trading partners8 today are Brazil, China, Chile,
the United States, Germany, and Mexico.
The 1990s was the era of the Washington Consensus9 in
Latin America. Economist John Williamson coined the term
“Washington Consensus,” which refers to ten specific
economic policies that were supposed to pull crisis-wracked
developing countries back into stable territory. The US
essentially tried to force policies that worked for them
onto countries with incredibly dissimilar histories; this 8 Listed in order of greatest portion of trade to least. 9 Refer to Attachment 3 for the abridged list of policies.
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led many Latin American countries to become suspicious and
resentful towards the US, and especially the IMF and World
Bank.
The next crisis happened shortly after Carlos Menem was
elected president in 1989. Inflation took off and peaked at
over 20,000%. The IMF had pressured Argentina to adopt a
series of foreign and seemingly overbearing trade and
monetary policies in the early 90s that prompted their turn
towards inward growth, isolation, and protectionism. They
raised excessive barriers to trade and tried to shelter
domestic industry. It quickly became obvious that this
strategy was not going to work, and in 1991 almost all
barriers to trade were dropped. The minister of the
economy, Domingo Cavallo, also enacted monetary policy that
pegged the peso to the US dollar. This was a rash move.
There was hyperinflation at the time, the country was
undergoing a shift from running a trade surplus to a trade
deficit, and the people were rioting; regardless, pegging
the currency ended with somewhat predictable negative
consequences.
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After Cavello completed his tasks Argentina did enjoy a
short period of growth. In 1994 an amendment was added to
their constitution that reduced the presidential term to
four years and limited the office to one consecutive
reelection. This was indicative of an increasingly stable
political environment; however, the Peso was devalued not
long after the amendment and GDP declined steeply.
President Carlos Menem chose to leave office the following
year, which was also an exciting year for Argentine trade.
The country made significant headway towards liberalization
by becoming a member of both the WTO and Mercosur; the peso
also experienced real appreciation relative to its trading
partners. Mercosur made almost all intra-Mercosur trade
duty-free, and the member implemented the common external
tariff (CET) to apply to all non-member countries.
Both trade agreements had profound immediate effects on
Argentina’s trading volumes. For example, intra-regional
trade rose from just $4 billion in 1991 to $23 billion in
1998. The next major events happened in 2000. Argentina
came out of a recession with a quickly growing deficit that
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made many Western countries nervous about their investments
prospects. That year the IMF agreed to a three year $7.2
billion standby arrangement conditioned on strict fiscal
adjustment and the assumption of 3.5% growth in 2000. Their
growth projection was grossly overestimated; it was only
0.5%. The IMF’s major loan was the first instance of the
United States forcing the “Washington consensus” on
Argentina.
In 2001 amid rampant inflation, extraordinary debt, and
public unrest everything collapsed in the December riots.
On December 23rd Argentina declared default on $93 billion
worth of bonds, and they restructured an additional $30
billion of debt to have longer maturities and lower
interest10. The economy collapsed and crisis ensued.
During the riots imports fell drastically, but exports
continued a slightly upward trajectory. Rua resigned after
the riots and Eduardo Duhalde was elected president in 2002.
He had the peso devalued, and eventually it stabilized at
10 If you are not familiar with debt restructuring consider the $30 billion they restructured to be money they “almost” defaulted on. It was a way to buy time.
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approximately three pesos/dollar. Allowing the currency to
devalue encouraged growth. During this period Brazil and
Argentina, normally competitive countries, managed to
establish an automotive FTA. Things began to look up and
steady incremental growth continued until the global
financial crisis of 2007-2008.
Christina Fernandez de Kirchner, the first female
president, was elected with the incipient predicament.
Argentina was affected much like the rest of Latin America
with respect to the global financial crisis; inflation
increased, loans were harder to come by, interest decreased,
and export demand decreased. Around this time China moved
through the ranks to become Argentina’s second greatest
trade partner. In 2012 Obama’s administration suspended
Argentine participation in the GSP (Generalized System of
Preferences), and they have not been welcomed back. This
really damaged Argentina’s trade. The GSP was created to
help developing countries expand their economies by letting
some US goods be imported duty-free. While losing GSP
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status was not utterly detrimental to Argentine trade, it
certainly did not help their recovery.
5.2 A Brief Industry Decomposition11
Argentina’s largest industry has long been agriculture,
as such they have a commodity driven economy. Any country
that is dependent on the export of natural resources is
particularly sensitive to foreign shock and natural
disaster. A season of drought can damage GDP for Argentina
in a way that service driven countries will never
experience. This past year the most exported good from
Argentina was agricultural fodder. Following that was motor
vehicles, fuel and lubricant, soybeans, vegetable oil,
maize, wheat, chemicals, meats, leather, and then wine and
spirits. The breakdown can be seen in the graph below.
11 The industry analysis uses data fro 2010 to the present.
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5.3 Trade Indicators and Trends
Historical analysis is a useful tool to analyze trade
with, but economic indicators are needed for a precise
understanding of the trading environment. There are
thousands of different indicators that could be used to
analyze trade, but I will focus on three: debt to GDP ratio,
trade in services, and the peso to US dollar exchange rate.
The debt to GDP ratio is useful for getting a rough
understanding of how in debt a country is, and more
importantly, how likely it is that they will be able to pay
that debt off. Argentina hit a record low of 34.5 in 1997
and a record high of 166 in 2002 (following the December
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riots). The graph below provides a visual of the ratio from
1998 to 2013. The massive jump around 2001 is reflective of
the $93 billion default they declared during the December
Riots.
Trade in services is the sum of service exports and
service imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current
US dollars. Unfortunately, the IMF only had data on trade
in services for Argentina from 2005 to 2012, but it is still
interesting to analyze the available data. Trade in
services was recorded at 6.26 in 2005, peaked at 6.32 in
2007, and has declined steadily to 5.52 today. Analyzing
the trade in services ratio is a bit tricky. First note
that the denominating currency does not affect the ratio
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since ratios are “unitless.” As such, the ratio indicates
that Argentina’s sum of service imports and exports is six
times their national GDP, and that either GDP has been
growing, or the sum of service imports and exports are
decreasing. The most interesting part of this indicator is
that the ratio is sitting at the “six level.”
Argentina has a history of hyperinflation and pendulum-
like foreign policy that has led to massive upward and
downward swings in inflation and exchange rate. The first
graph depicts the exchange rate from 1980 to the present;
the second graph displays the data from 1995 to the present.
Figure 1
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The Peso/US Dollar exchange rate is relevant to trade
analysis because Argentina and the US have consistently been
trade partners, and the dollar has exhibited consistent
growth. Since it has grown consistently the indicator for
how the peso’s value has fluctuated is more accurate. Using
a stable currency to measure the exchange rate allows for
the dependent variable, the peso, to be isolated
effectively.
Figure 1 illustrates how severe hyperinflation was in
the early 80s during the debt crisis. The exchange rate
Figure 2
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peaked at approximately 80,000 pesos/dollar. The exchange
rate peaked next in 1989, but hyperinflation was only one
eighth of that seen in the last crisis. The scale of Figure
1 restricts its use to visualizing hyperinflation; to see
the modest increase in the exchange rate over the past
decade refer to Figure 2. Until 2001 the peso had been
overvalued by a fixed exchange rate. When Duhalde’s
administration devalued the exchange rate it stabilized
around a more realistic three peso/dollar rate and has since
increased to approximately five pesos/dollar. There is fear
among some foreign investors that Argentina is currently on
the verge of more financial distress; the rising exchange
rate is often cited as a sign of a problematic future.
6. Conclusion
One popular explanation for Argentina’s paradoxical
decline is trade policy. Argentina was the model for
export-led growth when the trading system collapsed after
the Great Depression. Argentina’s global disconnect struck
another blow when their autarkic trade policy amidst the
creation of GATT caused them to miss a huge opportunity to
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enter into the international market on more fair grounds.
These are only two examples, but it seems as though the
country was consistently out of tune with the global trading
climate.
No single idea can explain the country’s unique
history. Another piece of the puzzle is the country’s
institutional weakness. When major changes were needed,
Argentina lacked the institutional structure to implement
anything substantial. Abundant natural resources turned
out to be a double-edged sword. The commodities gifted them
with goods to trade, but also made Argentina very vulnerable
to external shock. The political scene also caused problems
throughout much of the 20th century; military rule and coops
happened in quick succession for many years, plaguing the
country’s stability. Things may sound grim, but Argentina
is a resilient country. Their tourism, wine, and
automobile industry have the potential to thrive with the
new technology of the 21st century and pull them back on
track. Some major structural changes will be needed, but
nothing is impossible.
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7. Attachments
Attachment 112 – Argentinean Trade Timeline dating 1980-2014
Year Event
1980 Argentina sets a record deficit Jorge Rafael Videla the reigning dictator 1970s-80s oil prices were very high
1981 Bad debt leads to financial collapse Videla is prosecuted in the Trial of the
Juntas for large-scale human rights abuses and crimes against humanity
1982 Falklands Conflict/Crisis: 10 week war between Argentina and the UK over the
12 For the years that I do not reference in the paper the timelines corresponding rows have been deleted.
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Falkland Islands and South Georgia & the South Sandwich Islands. Resulted in a British victory.
1983 Raúl Alfonsín (UCR) becomes President Inflation at over 900%
1989 Carlos Menem becomes President Between July of 1989 – July 1990
inflation rose over 2,000% and peaked just above 20,000%
1991 Economy minister, Domingo Cavallo, enacted the convertibility law that pegged the monetary value of the peso to the US dollar
Around this time the trade balance shifted from a large surplus to a deficit.
Almost all nontariff trade barriers were removed and tariff rates reduced
Argentina enjoys a period of growth
1992 Suicide bombers attack Argentina’s Israeli embassy
1994 An amendment to the Argentine constitution reduced the Presidential term to four years and allowed a single consecutive reelection (Pact of Olivos)
Peso is devalued and GDP declines steeply1995 Carlos Menem leaves office and Fernando
de la Rua takes office temporarily Argentina becomes a member of the WTO Argentina becomes a member of Mercosur 1995-1999 the Argentine peso experiences
real appreciation relative to trading partners
1997 East Asian financial crisis begins
1998 Argentina enters recession after Russia
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and Brazil also become a part of the financial crisis
1999 Fernando de la Rua (UCR) elected formally
2000 IMF agrees to a $7.2 billion stand-by arrangement with Argentina. Later that year Rua announces a $40 billion multilateral assistance package.
2001 December Riots December 23: Declared default on $93
billion bonds and restructured approximately $30 billion of debt to havelonger maturity and lower interest
The economy collapses resulting in crisis Rua resigns after riots and Adolfo Saa
(PJ) appointed short term President2002 Eduardo Duhalde elected President
Peso devalued Exchange rate stabilized around 3
pesos/dollar Exports take up steady growth. Brazil/Argentina establish an automotive
FTA2003 Nestor Kirchner (PJ) elected President
Domestic demand increases Purchasing power of Peso increases Imports start recovering quickly
2004 Natural gas supply shortage – energy crisis 13
2005 Argentina begins an extensive debt restructuring process (response to massive 2001 default)
13 Natural gas at the time provided approximately 50% of theenergy necessary to electricity making plants.
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2006 Argentina reported as the fourth largest producer of wheat
2007 Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner elected President, currently finishing her secondterm
The global 2007-2008 financial crisis begins
2009 China became Argentina’s second greatest trade partner
2010 Anti-dumping measures lead to Chinese boycott of Argentine import products (soyoil primarily)
2011 Soy oil purchases by China resume after negotiation
2012 Obama administration suspends Argentine participation in GSP
2013 Argentina drops to be the tenth largest producer of wheat
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8. Attachment 2 - Definitions
The definitions are presented in alphabetical order, not
order of appearance. The definitions are not my own work;
definitions are taken directly from text in the works cited.
FDI (Foreign Direct Investment): Cross border
investment by a resident in one economy with the
objective of obtaining a lasting interest in an
enterprise resident in another economy.
FTA (Free Trade Agreement): A treaty between two or
more countries to establish a free trade area where
commerce in goods and services can be conducted across
common borders, without tariffs or hindrances, but
capital and labor may not move freely. Member countries
usually impose a uniform tariff on trade with non-
member countries.
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GDP (Gross Domestic Product): The monetary value of
all the finished goods and services produced within a
country's borders in a specific time period.
ISI (Import Substitution Industrialization): An
economic theory employed by developing or emerging
market nations that wish to increase their self-
sufficiency and decrease their dependency on developed
countries.
Mercosur: A sub-regional trading bloc and customs union
comprised of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and
Venezuela. Associate countries are Chile, Bolivia,
Columbia, Ecuador, and Peru. Its purpose is to promote
free trade and the fluid movement of goods, people, and
currency.
MFN (most favored nation principle): Obliges WTO member
countries to treat the imports of all other WTO member
countries no worse than they treat the imports of their
“most favored” trading partner.
GINI Index: The most commonly used measure of wealth
inequality. It is a measure of statistical dispersion
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intended to represent the income distribution of a
nation's residents.
GSP (Generalized System of Preferences): A preferential
tariff system that provides for a formal system of exemption
from the general rules of the WTO. It is a system of
exemption from the most favored nation principle (MFN).
PJ (Justicialist Party): A Peronist political party.
Believes in social justice, economic independence, and
political sovereignty.
WTO (World Trade Organization): An international
organization dealing with the global rules of trade
between nations. Its main function is to ensure that
trade flows as smoothly, predictably, and freely as
possible.
UCR (Radical Civic Union): Oldest active political
party in Argentina. It is a social liberal political
party.
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Attachment 3 – The Washington Consensus (abridged)
1. Fiscal policy discipline. Avoid large fiscal debt
relative to GDP;
2. Redirection of public spending from subsidies toward
broad-based provision of key pro-growth, pro-poor
services like primary education, health care, etc.;
3. Tax reform, namely broadening tax base;
4. Interest rates that are market determined and positive
in real rates;
5. Competitive exchange rates;
6. Trade liberalization;
7. Liberalization of inward FDI;
8. Privatization of state enterprise;
9. Deregulation other than what is necessary to ensure
prudent government behavior;
10. Legal security for property rights.
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"Argentina - Country History and Economic
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Information about Country History and Economic Development in
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14 Used for attachment two’s definitions.
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