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TEKNIK ANALISIS JALUR DAN TERAPANNYAProf. Dr. Maruf Akbar
PROGRAM PASCASARJANA UNIVERSITAS NEGERI JAKARTA2010
A. PENDAHULUANTUJUAN PENGGUNAAN ANALISIS JALUR (PATH ANALYSIS)1. ANALISIS JALUR MERUPAKAN SUATU CARA UNTUK MEMPELAJARI PENGARUH-PENGARUH LANGSUNG DAN TIDAK LANGSUNG SEJUMLAH VARIABEL YANG DIHIPOTESISKAN SEBAGAI VARIABEL SEBAB TERHADAP VARIABEL AKIBAT (As a method for studying the direct and indirect effects of variables hypothesized as causes of variables treated as effects) ( Sewall Wright dikutip Elazar J. Pedhazur. Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1981, p. 580)
As was noted above, path analysis is not a method for discovering causes, but a method applied to a causal model formulated by the researcher on the basis of knowledge and theoretical consideration. (Elazar J. Pedhazur. Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1981, p. 580)
CONTOH MASALAH
TUJUAN PENELITIAN
KINERJAPENELITIAN KAUSALVARIABELVARIABELPENYEBAB
DASAR TEORIJoint Effects of Goals and Self-Efficacy on performance (Stephen P. Robbins, and Timothy A. Judge. Organizational Behavior. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall, 2007, p. 181)
Managers setsdifficult, specific goalsfor job or taskIndividuals setshigher personal(self-set) goalfor their performanceIndividuals hashigher level ofjob or taskperformanceIndividuals hasconfidence thatgiven level ofperformance will be attained(self-efficacy)
CONTOH MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN X2
X1 Y
X3 KINERJAUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET) KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALSELF-EFFICACY
ALTERNATIF LAIN MEMBANGUN MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN
TEORISUMBERDESKRIPSITEORETIKVARIABEL-VARIABELPENGARUH(DE, IE, TE)
PLACEMENT OF THE THEORY IN QUANTITATIVE STUDIES ONE USES THEORY DEDUCTIVELY AND PLACES IT TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE PLAN FOR A STUDY. IN QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH THE OBJECTIVE IS TO TEST OR VERIFY A THEORY, RATHER THAN TO DEVELOP IT (JOHN W. CRESWELL. RESEARCH DESIGN QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES. NEW DEHLI: SAGE PUBLICATIONS, 1994, p.87)
Researcher Test a TheoryResearcher Test Hypotheses or ResearchQuestions Derived from the TheoryResearcher Operationalizes ConceptsOr Variables Derived from the TheoryResearcher Uses an Instrumentto Measure Variables in the Theory
HUBUNGAN ANTAR VARIABEL
KORELASI
KAUSAL
3. TIMBAL BALIK (RECIPROCAL)
SPURIOUS
5. PENGARUH LANGSUNG DAN TIDAK LANGSUNG
XYXYXYXYZX1YX2
B. CONTOH ANALISISMASALAH PENELITIAN 1. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap self-efficay? 2. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap upaya kerja? 3. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung self-efficay terhadap upaya kerja? 4. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung self-efficacy terhadap kinerja? 5. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung upaya kerja terhadap kinerja?
HIPOTESIS STATISTIKHo. : 21 0 Hi. : 21 > 02. Ho. : 31 0 Hi. : 31 > 03. Ho. : 32 0 Hi. : 32 > 04. Ho. : y2 0 Hi. : y2 > 05. Ho. : y3 0 Hi. : y3 > 0
PILIHAN ANALISIS (SOFTWARE PROGRAM)SPSSLISREL
PILIHAN 1TAHAPAN: 1. MEMBUAT PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL 2. MENCARI DAN MENGUJI SIGNIFIKANSI KOEFISIEN JALUR 3. MENCARI BESARAN PENGARUH LANGSUNG, TIDAK LANGSUNG DAN PENGARUH TOTAL 4. PENAFSIRAN
PROSEDURMEMBUAT PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL
2 X2 4 p42 X1 p21 p32 X4
p31 p43 X3 3
SELF-EFFICACY KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)KINERJA
PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL1. p21
X1 X2 X2 = p21X1 + 2 22. X2
p32 X1 p31
3 X3 = p31X1 + p32X2 + 3 X3
KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALSELF-EFFICACY KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALSELF-EFFICACYUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)
LANJUTAN y = py2 X2 + py3 X3 + 4
SELF-EFFICACYUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)KINERJA4py2py3X2X3
MENGHITUNG KOEFISIEN KORELASI ANTAR VARIABEL
MENGHITUNG KOEFISIEN JALURX2 = p21X1 + 2
p21 = 0, 719 (nilai t = 7.174 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000) t = r (n-2)/(1 r2) t tabel = (0.05, dk= n-2) = 1,67 = 0,719 (50-2)/(1-0,52) = 7.17
LANJUTAN2. X3 = p31X1 + p32X2 + 3
p31 = 0, 478 (nilai t = 3.533 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.001)p32 = 0, 345 (nilai t = 2.555 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.014)
LANJUTANMenghitung nilai t
t1 = p31 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.478/ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 3,536 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684
t2 = p32 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.345/ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 2,552 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684
LANJUTAN3. y = py2 X2 + py3 X3 + 4 py2 = 0, 526 (nilai t = 5.125 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000)py3 = 0, 408 (nilai t = 3.975 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000)
LANJUTANMenghitung nilai t
t1 = p42 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.526/ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 5,125 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684
t2 = p43 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.408/ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 3,975 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684
UJI HIPOTESISHo. : 21 = 0 Hi. : 21 > 0
p21 = 0, 719 (nilai t = 7.174 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000) t = r (n-2)/(1 r2) t tabel = (0.05, dk= n-2) = 1,6 = 0,719 (50-2)/(1-0,52) = 7.17 Kriteria Penolakan Ho. 1. =0.05 > p (Sig) tolak Ho. dan =0.05 < p (Sig) terima Ho 2. t hitung > t tabel, tolak Ho t hitung < t tabel terima Ho Kesimpulan : Tolak Ho, dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x1 terhadap x2
LANJUTAN2. Ho. : 31 0Hi. : 31 > 0p31 = 0, 478 (nilai t = 3.533 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.001)p32 = 0, 345 (nilai t = 2.555 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.014)3. Ho. : 32 0 Hi. : 32 > 0 t1 = p31 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.478/ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 3,536 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684 t2 = p32 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.345/ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 2,552 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684
Kriteria Penolakan Ho. 1. =0.05 > p (Sig) tolak Ho. dan =0.05 < p (Sig) terima Ho 2. t hitung > t tabel, tolak Ho t hitung < t tabel terima Ho Kesimpulan : Tolak Ho, dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x1 terhadap x3. Dan Tolak Ho. Dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x2 terhadap x3
LANJUTAN4. Ho. : y2 0Hi. : y2 > 0 5. Ho. : y3 0 Hi. : y3 > 0p42 = 0, 526 (nilai t = 5.125 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000)p43 = 0, 408 (nilai t = 3.975 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000)t1 = p42 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.526/ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 5,125 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684 t2 = p43 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.408/ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 3,975 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684Kriteria Penolakan Ho. 1. =0.05 > p (Sig) tolak Ho. dan =0.05 < p (Sig) terima Ho 2. t hitung > t tabel, tolak Ho t hitung < t tabel terima Ho Kesimpulan : Tolak Ho, dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x2 terhadap x4. Dan Tolak Ho. Dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x3 terhadap x4
MENGHITUNG BESARAN PENGARUH RESIDU ()p22 = 1- 0.517 =0,694
2. p33 = 1- 0.585 = 0,644
3. py4 = 1- 0.740 = 0, 509
MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN DAN HASIL
p22 =0, 694 X2 2 4 py2=0,526 p44 = 0,504 p21=0,719 p32=0,345X1 Y
p31=0,478 py3 =0,408 3 X3 p33 =0,644
SELF-EFFICACY KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)KINERJA
MENGHITUNG PENGARUH LANGSUNG, TIDAK LANGSUNG, DAN TOTAL
Pengaruh
variabel
Pengaruh Kausal
Langsung
Melalui X2
Melalui X3
Melalui X2 dan X3
Total
X1->X2
0,719
-
-
-
0,719
X1->X3
0,478
(0,719)(0,345)=
0,248
-
-
0,726
X1->Y
-
(0,719)(0,526)=
0,378
(0,478)(0,408)=
0,195
(0,719)(0,345)(0,408)= 0,101
0,674
X2->X3
0,345
-
-
-
0,345
X2->Y
0,526
-
-
-
0,526
X3->Y
0,408
-
-
-
0,408
KESIMPULAN 1.Ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap self-efficay 2. Ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap upaya kerja 3. Ada pengaruh langsung self-efficay terhadap upaya kerja 4. Ada pengaruh langsung self-efficacy terhadap kinerja 5. Ada pengaruh langsung upaya kerja terhadap kinerja
2. ALTERNATIF ANALISIS KE DUADATA MATRIK KOVARIANS
LANJUTAN (Save as Type ketik PATHANL.spl.) muncul
LANJUTAN (KLIK Icon Gb. Orang berlari L) didapat :
LANJUTAN
LANJUTAN
LANJUTAN
LANJUTAN
LANJUTAN
LANJUTAN
MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN DAN HASIL
X2 2 4 p42=0,53 p21=0,72 p32=0,35X1 X4
p31=0,48 p43 =0,41 3 X3
SELF-EFFICACY KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)KINERJA
LANJUTAN
MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN DAN HASIL (t hitung)
X2 2 4 th= 5,18 th= 7,17 th= 2,58X1 X4
th=3,57 th = 4,02 3 X3
SELF-EFFICACY KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)KINERJA
SELAMAT MENCOBA