North Atlantic Treaty Organization

PAIMUN 2015

North Atlantic Treaty Organization

Topic:Ukraine’s Membership Status in NATO Committee Director(s): Indiana Sobol Committee Type: Specialized Committee

History of NATO

Establishment Preceded by the Treaty of Brussels in 1948 and formed in 1949 after World War II, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) aims to “safeguard the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.” Originally, the United States, one of NATO’s founding countries, sought to contain the Soviet Union’s influence to protect the Western European democracies. The transatlantic alliance has ensured the presence of the US in Europe to restrict the expansion of communism. As the post-WWII bilateral global rivalries emerged, NATO transitioned from a mere political organization into a military alliance with a sophisticated command structure. The founding purposes of NATO are best summarized by the words of Lord Ismay, NATO’s first Secretary General: “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the German down.” Cold War Legacy Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states “that an armed attack against one or more of [the signatory countries] in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.” As one of the most essential clauses of NATO, Article 5 prevented the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact (a mutual defense treaty in existence during the Cold War, between eight communist states of central and eastern Europe) satellite states from attacking the union among most parts of the North Atlantic region. The Treaty also expanded over the course of the Cold War to incorporate Greece, Turkey, West Germany and Spain. As the conflicts intensified between the US and the Soviet Union (i.e., the outbreak of the Korean War), the safety of European members of NATO became increasingly dependent on US military commitment to the alliance. With the rejection of the Soviet Union’s entry and the acceptance of West Germany into the alliance over the 1950s, NATO was able to gather enough manpower and formidable forces to ensure the region’s security. These events proved to be a turning point in the history of both NATO and continental Europe.

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Post-Cold War Era With the dissolution of the Soviet Union and subsequently the Warsaw Pact in 1191, NATO lost its former rival and the status quo of Cold War diplomacy transformed into a more complicated and cross-continental situation for the alliance. Even though NATO struggled to determine its importance in the 1990s, the two essential objectives of NATO--to combat extreme nationalism and to promote integration and security among European countries--still remained relevant in the Post-Cold War era. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, NATO member countries overcame a long-standing European stigma, the fear of a unified Germany, admitting the newly reintegrated Germany as one of the Treaty’s signatories in 1990. Since then, NATO underwent a series of enlargement, reform, and military involvement process. Notable initiatives include the incorporation of former Eastern-bloc countries (Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, etc.), the establishment of Allied Command Transformation (ACT) and Allied Command Operations (ACO), NATO intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the intervention in Kosovo, and the International Security Assistance Force’s (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan. In addition to including more members and conducting large-scale military operations, the alliance also developed partnership programs such as the Partnership for Peace (PfP), Individual Partnership Action Plan, and Intensified Dialogue to tailor its ties with individual non-member countries.

NATO Function and Powers While NATO “is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes,” it also has the capability to launch military operations. One of the main tenets of NATO is the concept of collective defense: “an attack against one or several members is considered as an attack against all.” A NATO operation can occur in the case of collective defense under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty or according to a UN mandate. For example, NATO found that the 9/11 attacks counted as an attack against the United States and that therefore military action would be supported by Article 5 as collective defence. NATO then supported the United States’ counterattack. The UN Security Council then mandated NATO’s creation of ISAF as an effort “to assist the Afghan government in maintaining security.” Thus, NATO has the ability to work both with and without the UN, calling upon its own military power in the case of collective defense.

Ukraine’s Membership Status

NATO’s Enlargement Policy Any action and institution of NATO should emphasize its core interest of peace and security. On the one hand, incorporating more countries into the alliance enhances NATO’s military strength and its status as a pan-European alliance. On the other hand, NATO’s acceptance of former Warsaw Pact countries has intensified its hostility with the Russian Federation.

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Accession Process In order to become a member country to the Treaty, a state must undergo multi-stage evaluation and meet certain military and economic requirements. In general, Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty regulates the process of joining the alliance: “The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area to accede to this Treaty. Any State so invited may become a Party to the Treaty by depositing its instrument of accession with the Government of the United States of America. The Government of the United States of America will inform each of the Parties of the deposit of each such instrument accession.” According to Article 10, any current NATO member can propose a candidate state and its accession is restricted by several criteria: first, the consensus of all NATO member countries; second, the candidate state must be an European country; third, each NATO member country can put forward standards that the candidate state must achieve. The overall process of NATO’s enlargement is governed by the North Atlantic Council, its main administrative body. Ultimately seven major steps should be taken in attaining a formal membership, according to NATO: Accession talks with a NATO team Invitees send letter of intent to NATO, along with timetables for completion of reforms Accession protocols are signed by NATO countries Accession protocols are ratified by NATO countries The Secretary General invites the potential new members to accede to the North Atlantic Treaty Invitees accede to the North Atlantic Treaty in accordance with their national procedures Upon depositing their instruments of accession with the US State Department, invitees formally become NATO members

Take Spain, which entered NATO in 1982. According to the New York Times, there were a number of factors delaying Spain’s entrance: it was plagued with internal upheaval “including Basque separatism and a powerful military group opposed to an alliance that could make Spain a target of reprisals.” The structure of Spain under Francisco Franco dramatically differed from those of NATO powers, making it difficult for either side to be convinced that a Spanish presence in NATO would be wise. Franco’s death marked the beginning of change for Spain, however: Greece’s relations with NATO were volatile due to conflict between Greece and Turkey, both NATO members, and Spain was looking to renegotiate a treaty with the United States in the hopes of gaining more favorable terms for themselves. Spain’s foreign minister at the time, Jose Pedro Perez Llorca explained, “With the entry to NATO, the bilateral treaty with the United States will lose its importance.” Thus, NATO stood to gain a more willing ally, and Spain could look forward to more freedom from the United States. Spain received its invitation into NATO in 1981 and became an official NATO member in 1982 after “depositing [an] instrument

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of accession with the US State Department.” In Spain’s case, therefore, entrance into NATO was only possible when both NATO and the other state had something to gain and were relatively similar in structure and goals.

NATO’s 1995 Study on Enlargement A study concerning the objectives of the alliance’s expansion and the touchstones of a new member country was published by NATO in 1995. The study concludes that the alliance’s enlargement policy will result in many benefits to its current member countries, such as better relationships with neighboring countries and closer integration of Europe. It also specifies that countries that declare an interest in joining the Treaty must fulfill various standards: A functioning democratic political system based on a market economy; The fair treatment of minority populations; A commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts; The ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and A commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutional structures. Thus, a strong market economy, a functioning and democratic political system as well as the readiness to conduct cooperative military missions are crucial in NATO’s evaluation of an aspirant country. Alternative Frameworks Intensified dialogues and Membership Action Plan (MAP) are parts of the procedure for aspirant nations wishing to join the alliance. Besides formal membership, non-member countries can also choose to enter dialogues and cooperation with NATO with alternative frameworks, mainly the Individual Partnership Action Plans (IPAPs) and Partnership for Peace (PfP). History of NATO Enlargement The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has added new countries six times, including 16 new member countries. Former rival countries such as East Germany, the Baltic States, and several other Balkan countries, have joined the alliance over time and have since enhanced the strength and responsibility of NATO. Also, former communist countries such as Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In the long-term, NATO’s incorporation of new European nations (and Turkey) has bolstered the region’s stability and prosperity.

Ukraine

Ukraine is a Slavic country located in Eastern Europe with a semi-presidential system and a population of about 45 million. Historically, Ukraine has been an important

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regional player whose culture influenced many of its neighbors. During the Gold Age of Kiev, under the rule of Vladimir the Great and other leaders, Ukraine became a dominant and prosperous nation. However, from the 14th to the 17th century, the Ukrainians underwent a period of foreign domination during which neighboring empires such as Russia and the Ottoman Empire struggled to seize control of Ukraine. During WWI, in the wake of nationalism and self-determination, many Ukrainians entered the devastating war on both sides, with Russia of the Triple Entente and with Austria-Hungary of the Central Powers. Weakened by the October Revolution of 1917, Russia’s loosened authority over Ukraine resulted in a civil war fought among multiple forces. The Bolsheviks eventually claimed victory, leading to the establishment of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). During the Cold War Era Ukraine was a Warsaw Pact state during the Cold War and commonly was commonly viewed as one of Russia’s largest satellite countries. Despite Moscow’s strong authority over Kiev, there were political struggles in Ukraine led by the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) against Soviet rule. In addition, the OUN founded the Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations, aiming to reunite neighboring states such as Poland and the Baltic states, to resist the Communist regime and Russia’s assimilation policies. In 1986, the Chernobyl Disaster, one of the most devastating nuclear accidents, took place in Northern Ukraine and the emitted radioactive substances from the exploded nuclear power plant affected millions of inhabitants nearby. Because of the contradictory and downplayed official reports of Chernobyl, the accident spiraled many Ukrainians’ distrust and hostility towards the Soviet authority. Independence from the Soviet Union An independent Ukrainian nation-state was a fairly novel idea after the dissolution of the USSR. On August 24, 1991, the Ukrainian parliament adopted the Act of Independence and Ukraine became a democratic state independent from the Soviet Union. After its independence, Russia and Ukraine founded the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to facilitate economic collaboration and trades. After enjoying advantageous economic conditions within the USSR, Ukraine’s economy was trapped in years of recession after its independence. After eight years of high unemployment and inflation rates, the situation in Ukraine began to improve after 1999 and the country experienced steady GDP growth from 2000 to 2004. In 2004, the Supreme Court of Ukraine declared that there had been electoral fraud during the presidential election. Nationwide protests against Viktor Yanukovych, who was believed to have rigged the election, led to the rise of the Orange Revolution and Yulia Tymoshenko’s ascent to power. The civil resistance against corruption and fraudulent election results lasted around three months. Ultimately, Tymoshenko won the second presidential vote and became president. Tymoshenko strove for Ukraine’s integration into and collaboration with the European Union during her presidency.

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Russo-Ukrainian Relations The two countries’ relations are complex, given that Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until 1991 and many Russian government officials, including Vladimir Putin, believe that Ukraine is in Russia’s “sphere of influence.” After Ukraine’s independence, major territorial and sovereignty disputes, such as the autonomous status of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, set the two countries politically apart. However, the countries share financial interests, as both countries are founding members of the Commonwealth of Independent States and have developed many business partnerships in various fields. Russia remains Ukraine’s biggest economic partner, so Ukraine’s attempts to join the European Union (EU) and NATO have created tension between Russia and Ukraine. The disparity of Ukraine’s domestic attitudes towards Russia further complicates the situation. In Eastern and Southern Ukraine, there is a large presence of Russophones, which are normally in favor of resuming historical links and cooperation with Russia. However, in Western and Northern Ukraine, the general consensus favors closer integration with Europe. Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution certainly made Moscow more concerned about the future of Eastern Europe and the former Communist states. After being notified about Ukraine’s request of membership issued to NATO prior to the summit, Russia demonstrated opposition to Ukraine’s potential NATO membership.

In late 2013, the then President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, moved towards a closer relationship with Russia. This sparked pro-West protests that eventually led to violent confrontations between pro-West and pro-Russian Ukrainians. In early 2014, Yulia Tymoshenko, Yanukovych’s political rival who had been in jail since 2011, was released from prison, and an interim president was named after Yanukovych fled from office. In response, Russian troops were mobilized to Crimea, a then-Ukrainian area of land with a large number of ethnic Russians but also a number of Ukrainian. A Crimean referendum on whether or not to secede from Ukraine and join Russia was then held. Officially, at least 95% of voters voted to join Russia, but Western powers question the legitimacy of the numbers. Violence between Ukrainian soldiers, pro-Russian separatists, and Russian soldiers has been escalating since, and the European Union and the United States have imposed sanctions against Russia. During this time, Petro Poroshenko was elected President of Ukraine.

Overall, popular opinion in Russia is very against NATO as well as Western political leaders. Over four-fifths of Russians oppose Ukraine joining NATO. The Russian government is also opposed to Ukraine joining NATO, for two main reasons. Strategically, having a neighboring NATO country is a negative thing for Russia, which views NATO as an enemy force. The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has said that “We [Russia] are not expanding anywhere; it is NATO infrastructure, including military infrastructure, that is moving towards our borders.” Psychologically too, then, Russia has a reason for not wanting Ukraine to join NATO: if Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will have lost power over another country once part of the Soviet Union.

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NATO-Ukraine Relations Ukraine has had a relationship with NATO since 1991: just after the Cold War had ended, Ukraine began to work alongside NATO as part of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. In 1994, Ukraine joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace program. Since then, Ukraine has participated in several joint seminars and missions with NATO, such as the relief efforts at the 1995 Kharkiv Drinking Water Disaster. In 1997, an official NATO Information and Documentation Center was established in Kiev to foster further cooperation between the alliance and Ukraine, and a NATO Liaison Office was opened in the country two years later. NATO and Ukraine currently have a relationship through the NATO-Ukraine Commission, whose goals and procedures are outlined in the Charter on a Distinctive Partnership between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Ukraine (Charter on a Distinctive Partnership). According to the charter, the goals of the NUC include keeping Ukraine “independent, democratic and stable” and “to deepen the process of [Ukraine’s] integration with the full range of European and Euro-Atlantic structures.” The Annual National Programme sets out a list of steps NATO would like to encourage Ukraine to take in the next year, which Ukraine can then put into action. In April 2015, the current president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, signed the latest Annual National Programme. Thus, from the end of the Cold War, NATO and Ukraine have had a decently close working relationship. Within NATO, making peace with Russia was a priority before Ukraine’s 2014 uprising. Accepting Ukraine as a member would have risked Russia’s disapproval and retaliation, a fear confirmed by Russia’s response to the pro-Western uprising. On the one hand, the possibility of a closer relationship between Russia and NATO now seems more distant, meaning that there is little peace to preserve by keeping Ukraine out of NATO. On the other hand, Ukraine’s entry into NATO could force other NATO countries to send military aid to Ukraine under Article 5. A second Cold War is not appealing to most NATO countries, so European countries like France and Germany have taken on roles as outsiders to help negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine rather than advocate for a Ukrainian entry into NATO. “I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily,” German chancellor Angela Merkel said. In other words, some countries that oppose Ukraine’s hypothetical NATO entry believe that even NATO could not back Ukraine’s military to a point where forced peace could be achieved.

Ukraine’s Membership Status Prior to the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, the then President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko led a government that tried to become part of NATO’s Membership to Action Plan. President Bush, as well as presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain, showed support for Ukraine’s NATO bid. However, during this time, the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, told Yushchenko “that, in response to the deployment of [NATO missile facilities] in Ukrainian territory...Russia could target its missile systems in Ukraine.” During the Bucharest

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summit, both France and Germany opposed Ukraine’s entry as well as the entry of Georgia, which was also trying to enter NATO. Later that year, the United States backed down from giving Ukraine support to join NATO, and war broke out between Russia and Georgia. Had Georgia been a part of NATO at the time, other NATO countries may have been obligated to send military support to NATO.

In 2010, Viktor Yanukovych won the Ukrainian presidential election, heading government that was much more pro-Russia that that of Yuschenko. Under Yanukovych, the Ukrainian parliament “passed a bill that confirmed the country’s nonaligned status and effectively canceled any prospect of joining NATO.” In 2014, however, Yanukovych was thrown out of office and the pro-Western Petro Poroshenko was elected president. In light of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that broke out later that year, popular support grew in Ukraine for a NATO entry: having NATO military backing would be strategically important and sympathy for Russia, an invading country, waned. Later in 2014, Ukraine’s parliament passed a bill that got rid of Ukraine’s nonaligned status. Poroshenko has said that it will take “six, seven years of hard work” before Ukraine can join NATO but that Ukraine has been working on reforms that would help it gain membership. Thus, the new Ukrainian government would back a Ukrainian entry into NATO. Several challenges stand in its way: first, convincing NATO to add a member country already engaged in armed conflict would be incredibly difficult. Negotiating peace with Russia would at least entail a successful cease-fire. Second, Ukraine would need to make major domestic changes and reforms. While this is difficult at any time, reforms would be even more difficult during a time of war.

Future Outlook

Because of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, accepting Ukraine into NATO could lead to a NATO entry into the Ukraine-Russian conflict. The Ukrainian-Russian conflict may resonate the strongest for countries with recent history of Russian invasion, such as Poland, but even David Cameron, the British Prime Minister, has said that the Russian takeover of Crimea “[sent] ‘a chilling message across the continent of Europe.’” At present, Russia has control of Crimea and has also taken over parts of two oblasts (provinces) in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk. The New York Times has reported that “Donetsk and Luhansk will almost certainly gain some autonomy.” Because the oblasts are located in eastern Ukraine, the resulting pro-Russian sentiment may mean that political power they are granted within Ukraine itself would be used to further pro-Russian goals. Beyond using the oblasts as political power within Ukraine, Russia will most likely want to solidify its grip on Crimea and start using Crimea’s advantages for itself. In the short term, the governments of France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine have been negotiating for peace, beginning a new cease-fire. As two cease-fires have already failed, it is unclear as to whether or not Ukraine will be in a state of relative peace going into the winter of 2015.

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A NATO press release in August 2015 stated that “NATO stands firm in [their] support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” If that support does not come in the form of an acceptance of Ukraine into NATO, there are several paths that NATO may take. The first, which the European Union and United States have already taken, is to impose economic sanctions on Russia. According to the IMF, the sanctions already imposed have decreased Russia’s GDP by at least one percent. Petro Poroshenko is calling for “solidarity in assisting us [Ukraine] to create an effective defense force” and for the United States to sell Ukraine defensive weapons. But at the moment, the United States has not supplied Ukraine with weapons, and in Europe, while the sanctions will continue to 2016, the President of France, François Hollande, has said that France wanted the cease-fire to be successful so that sanctions could be lifted. NATO countries could try to help broker peace between Russia and Ukraine like France and Germany have already begun to do.

Although eastward expansion means more military strength and manpower for NATO, member states must also consider the military disadvantages of enlargement. In this specific case, resistance within the alliance has suggested that incorporating Ukraine might violate the original goals of the Treaty; the political turmoil and the lack of military strength of Ukraine might also develop into huge issues for the alliance in the future. As a part of the alliance, we expect you to consider the benefits and drawbacks of granting Ukraine membership given Russia’s hostile attitude and the confident backing of US. Take a look at the questions listed in the “Questions to Consider” section. Being able to answer those questions in details will help your country at the actual conference when tackling complicated aspects of this issue.

Questions to Consider:

Is it possible for NATO to expand to former Eastern Bloc countries without affecting Russia?

If the Russian government is affected or feels affected by NATO expansion, how will it respond?

Will NATO enlargement bring more unity and facilitate more international cooperation within the alliance? Or will it generate more disparity and inefficiency?

At what point should NATO enlargement end?

At what point in time, if at all, should NATO’s goal to “keep the Russians out” shift? Is there a way to avoid conflict with Russia?

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If NATO enlargement will create a collective defense problem, is it reasonable to then use military intervention? In other words, if NATO knows that inclusion of Ukraine will lead to conflict with Russia, is it acceptable to use Ukrainian membership and subsequent Russian military action as a reason to act under Article 5?

If Ukraine becomes a NATO member, how will NATO respond to Russian aggression?

If Ukraine does not become a NATO member, what will NATO’s role be in any conflict in Ukraine?

What should the role and goals of each NATO member be in the debate about Ukraine?

Blocs

Countries in Western Europe/North America

Within Western Europe, the decision of what to do in Ukraine is split. Even in countries that publicly support one course of action, domestic interests may run contrary to that position. At the moment, most of the countries within this bloc are against Ukraine entering NATO. The United States, which originally supported Ukraine's bid, backed down after increasing pressure from its allies. The dilemma for these countries is balancing peace with Russia and protecting the interests of foreign powers friendly to the West. Some countries within this bloc, especially Italy, are strongly against many forms of aid to Ukraine. The most popular form of support for Ukraine is financial sanctions, which have found strong political support; however, the possibility of keeping sanctions for an extended period of time is not something any country wants. These countries are searching for a way to end the conflict in Ukraine in such a way that allows them to leave with both their dignity and finances intact. A successful ceasefire in Ukraine without allowing Ukraine to join NATO could let the countries within this bloc achieve both these goals.

Countries in Eastern Europe/Countries Russia has Invaded Countries closest to Russia both physically and historically

Countries in this bloc have the most to fear from an increasingly powerful Russia. Especially among countries that were occupied by Russia or were part of the USSR in the twentieth century, Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine seems to mirror the events that occurred in the aftermath of World War II. These countries tend to have high pro-NATO sentiment and especially strong anti-Russian sentiment. Unlike some of the countries in Western Europe, countries in Eastern Europe tend to see the conflict in Ukraine as an immediate threat to their safety: if Russia begins to expand into Europe, these will be the

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first countries to be attacked. As a result, countries in the Eastern bloc are more supportive of sending aid to Ukraine. While support for military aid is weaker than support for economic aid, countries like Poland have much higher support for military aid than Western European countries do. Some countries within this bloc have begun to strengthen their own military defenses; Poland, for example, has begun to allow civilians to “sign up for military training.” Eastern European countries are generally more supportive of Ukraine entering both NATO and the European Union, and what happens in Ukraine is of the utmost importance for these countries.

Ukraine

While Ukraine is not a NATO member, its own interests are crucial to the issue at hand. While popular and political support for NATO used to be relatively weak, the growing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a drop of popular support for Russia in Ukraine and a surge of popular support for NATO. Petro Poroshenko is also a pro-West leader, so Ukraine’s government leans towards NATO membership. At the moment, Ukraine’s first priority needs to be to stop the armed conflict within its borders. The ceasefire with Russia is an important first step to resolving this conflict. If armed combat continues, Ukraine must seek foreign support. Becoming part of NATO would allow Ukraine to access the military and economic power of the West. If Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership fails, it must seek to convince Western powers to continue to impose sanctions on Russia in order to cripple its economic power. Ukraine will also need to convince European powers to lend military aid to the conflict regardless of whether or not it becomes a NATO member. While Ukraine may not fit the standards of becoming a NATO member at the present time, it needs to seek to join the Membership Action Plan.

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