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RETAILERS’ PERCEPTION TOWARDS PRODUCT DEMAND AND
SALES DURING THE PANDEMIC PERIOD OF COVID19
Suraj Palod, Shri Ramdeobaba College of Engineering and Management
Mitali Singh, Shri Ramdeobaba College of Engineering and Management
Dr. Gayathri Band, Shri Ramdeobaba College of Engineering and Management
ABSTRACT
FMCG sector is the 4th largest sector of the Indian economy. The purpose of this study is to analyse the change in sale of various
commodities and change in purchase of consumers through retailer's perception during the pandemic COVID 19. In a shot to slow
the unfold of virus, several countries have obligatory temporary closures to non-essential stores, bars and venues likewise as put a
ban on massive public gatherings. As such, the marketplace for FMCG faces sizable changes and changes in demand for client
grocery (CPG).
The study focuses primarily on the retailer perception of consumers and market behaviour towards choose fast paced trade goods.
Total of 120 forms were collected using Random sampling. A logistic Regression was used to identify the factors which have an
effect in the retailers’ business during this pandemic situation. The four most important factors that are important for the retail
outlets to survive in the pandemic situations are Quality of supply, Years of existence, delivery services avialable and product
demand. In food and beverages, staples has the highest demand, in home care the toilet care has the highest demand and in personal
care hand sanitizer has the highest demand. We also find a change in trend of purchase by the consumers, where consumers prefer
larger quantity purchase and monthly purchase instead of frequent or fortnightly purchases.
Keywords: FMCG, Retail Perception, food & beverages, home care, personal care, logistic regression
Article Received: 10 August 2020, Revised: 25 October 2020, Accepted: 18 November 2020
1. INTRODUCTION:
The world is currently experiencing a pandemic
due to highly infectious viruses known as Corona
Virus or COVID-19. In an attempt to slow the
spread of virus, many countries have imposed
temporary closures to non-essential stores, bars and
venues as well as putting a ban on large public
gatherings and encouraging people to work from
home wherever possible. As such, the market for
FMCG faces considerable charges, demand for
Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) has climbed
sharply in heavily-affected countries, while growth
in household goods spending surged as well. One-
way people try to reduce their chances of catching
the virus is by decreasing the frequency of going to
the grocery store. Some consumers are resorting to
stock piling water and food while others are using
E-Commerce to purchase products that they
usually would find in a store. The outbreak of
Corona Virus has contributed to an increased
demand for fast moving products. After analyzing
sales in the tenth week of 2020, the growth for
entire FMCG shopping basket amounted to 13%
compared to same period last year. Antibacterial
gel, sanitizers was the most popular hygiene
product to buy, while rice achieved the highest
sales growth in the food category. Retailer revenue
will be negatively impacted, or in a few cases
positively affected, depending on the situation.
Grocery retail chains such as Walmart and target
have seen an increase in revenues as customers are
stocking up on groceries and personal care
products. Supermarkets have braced for stockpiling
of corona virus panic escalates. Makers of food,
beverages, health and personal care products are
seeing a bump in sales as consumers stock up on
personal care products and emergency food rations.
An unprecedented spike in demand for grocery and
household products has created during the
unfortunate spread of COVID-19 virus, as
consumers prepare for weeks (maybe months) of
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school closures, work from home and restaurant
closures. Walmart which features a market price of
about $348 billion, may be a beneficiary of
consumers flooding its stores and stocking abreast
of home items, like toilet paper, cleaning supplies
and food.
India’s biggest consumer goods companies are
ramping up production to meet the steep rise in
demand with people rushing to stock up on
essentials and groceries in bulk amid fears of a
lockdown due to corona virus outbreak as several
states imposed stringent curbs on movement. This
marks a reversal of last years’ fortunes when
companies cut production because of weak
consumptions across segments. Parle-G records its
best ever sales during lockdown. It achieved a
unique milestone of selling the maximum number
of biscuits during lockdown breaking the record of
82 years as Parle-G brand is in production since
1938. Although the biscuit maker didn’t reveal its
official sales figures, it clocked record breaking
sales during March, April & May months. They
have grown their overall market share by nearly 5%
& 80-90% of this growth has come from the Parle-
G sales. Some of companies like Parle-G also
arranged transport for their workers for an easier
and safer commute to work. Once these factories
were operational, their focus was to produce brands
that drove maximum sales.
On the other hand, online sales have comparatively
increased as customers are buying online rather
than leaving the house to go shopping. However,
online market places such as Amazon are
struggling to bring goods from suppliers overseas.
Apart from online sales, COVID-19 will deal a
crushing blow to this sector. It remains to be seen
how long it will take to recover. Based on impact
ratings in each dimension we judge the overall
impact on the retail sector as severe.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW:
This study presents a review of the literature,
within the field of client behavior towards FMCG
aid product. Baumgartner (2002) recognized that
there's marvelous complication in client behavior.
There are also many aspects each rational and
emotional which will act reciprocally in
influencing the acquisition call. Sauer (2001) news
on the business trends in aid and cosmetic business,
used a classification theme of deodorants, hair care
product, color cosmetics, convenience grooming
product, oral hygiene product, fragrances, skin care
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product and sun care product. Deliya (2012)
importance of packaging style as a vehicle for
communication and disapproval is growing in
competitive markets for prepacked FMCG product.
This analysis used a spotlight cluster methodology
to know client behavior towards such product.
Schiffmand et al. (2000) client behavior is within
the look for buying, evaluating and confiscating
product, and services. They any thoroughbred that
the study of client behavior thinks about not solely
with what shoppers get, however they get, and the
way typically they go. Kotler, (2002) believes that
such social factors, reference teams, family and
social roles and statues influence consumer’s
behavior. Perrault et al, (2000) explicit that
relationships with different members of the family
influence several aspects of client behavior.
members of the family can also share several
attitudes and values, take into account each body’s
opinion and divide numerous shopping for tasks.
Rasool et al. (2012) conducted to seek out the
results of advertisements on user behavior and
therefore the results projected that individuals
changes their complete for to undertake to new
brands.
Kotler et al. (2009) the connection between client
behavior and selling strategy is stressed as a result
of it depends upon managers’ understandings of
client behavior. Understanding of client behavior is
very necessary in recession times. Hindoo et al
(2012) studied the impact of product value and
quality on client shopping for behavior. client
behavior patterns square measure quite associated
with one another, specifically within the aspects
like quality, evaluation and higher cognitive
process (Kumar, 2011). The results found that
quality, satisfaction, styling, price, finishing
operation, performance, safety, worth, shape, use
and excellence were placed prime priority. Celen et
al. (2005) analyzed the structure of the market is
being reworked in recent years by new retails
formats.
Katiyar, and Nikha Katiyar, (2014) “An Empirical
Study of Indian client shopping for Behavior of
FMCG product (With Special Reference of
Bathing Soap)”, bathing soap square measure fast-
paced trade goods that have seen a surge within
their sales in the past few decades in Asian country
additional and additional individuals square
measure gap up to the concept of experimenting
and attempting out newer soap. This study is
arranging to cowl the varied factors that influence
the shopping for call of shoppers World Health
Organization attempt to purchase and or used soap.
FMCG sector is that the fourth largest sector in
Asian country touching everyone life’s in each day.
The FMCG product sector is important contributor
to India’s gross domestic product.
Chitra. R (2014) “An empirical study on Customers
Purchase Intention towards Branded Apparels”,
this paper aims to review factors touching purchase
intention towards branded attire. Purchase
intention is explained in terms of general client
variables (normative influence, client confidence)
and complete specific variables (perceived quality,
emotional value).
Nasrudeen R and Mohamed, (2014) “Level of
Consumption of fast-paced trade goods by Rural
shoppers – Associate in Nursing Analytical Study”,
ever since independence of Asian country,
attributable to some obvious reasons, selling
uninheritable a for the most part urban bias. it had
been the revolution within the seventies that
provided a much-needed boost to agriculture-based
rural economy within the country. afterwards,
several companies started showing interest within
the rural markets and extend their penetration to
achieve smaller village and cities. Further, now-a-
days rural shoppers square measure behaving like
urban shoppers towards the urban modus vivendi,
fashion, taste, preferences, etc.
Rajasekaran, B and Saravanan, P. A. (2014)
highlighted, “Consumer Satisfaction on fast-paced
client Goods”. The study throws on the attitudes,
values, beliefs and perception of the shoppers with
regards to the consumption of fast-paced trade
goods. to review the complete preference of fast-
paced trade goods, the preference and opinion of
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client towards well-liked brands are taken into
thought.
Shanmugapriya .G and Sethuraman .R, (2014)
“Consumers’ Satisfaction towards Hamam Soap in
Thanjavur Town”, the selling state of affairs in
Asian country has undergone large amendment
since 1991 because of the economic reforms. Post-
liberalization, competition intense in each line and
market, that forced brands to redefine their norms
of existence all told industries. within the FMCG
business, particularly in soap sector there has been
severe competition among the MNCs, national and
native players. complete loyalty is decided by
many distinct psychological processes of the
shoppers and entails variable measurements.
Sonia and Garima Dalal, (2014) “To Study the
Satisfaction Level of consumers towards the
complete of Consumer’s product - A Study
administered on Rural Masses”, The Indian fast-
paced trade goods (FMCG) business began to form
throughout the last fifty odd years. The FMCG
sector could be a corner stone of the Indian
economy. This sector touches each facet of human
life. Indian FMCG market has been divided for an
extended time between the organized sector and
therefore the unorganized sector.
The study focuses primarily on the patron behavior
towards choose fast-paced trade goods in Nagpur,
however with the prevailing trend, it's necessary to
target the essence and emergence of vivacious in
selling efforts from the FMCG firms. so with
additional variety of firms moving into the
agricultural and concrete market, with a range of
product, it's a requirement for the businesses to
review the agricultural and concrete client
behavior, on FMCG. This study can highlight the
patron behavior before purchase, at the time of
purchase, post- purchase and factors influences the
patron behavior towards purchase of FMCG
product throughout this Corona pandemic amount.
People wearing protective masks shop at Kendriya
Bhandar in the wake of coronavirus pandemic. PTI
As Covid-19 ravages health systems and
economies around the world, the lockdown and its
accompanying preventive measures in India have
deeply impacted the FMCG (fast-moving
consumer goods) industry. Indian retailers suffered
a big 71 per cent drop by demand, with no orders
received by 95 per cent outlets within the first week
of lockdown, consistent with a report by retail
intelligence platform Bizom. It did a consumer
spend analysis for the unorganized Indian retail
sector.
Beverages fared the worst among all the product
categories. The category's peak season is summer
and just as it was about to start Covid-19 and the
lockdown hit the country. The beverages season
typically picks up a week or two before Holi. It did
not happen because 90 per cent of the people have
been 100 per cent of the time indoors during the
lockdown. Also, the offtake for carbonated
beverages was impacted by low alcohol
consumption since the two are usually paired as a
drink.
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:
The study was conducted among 120 retailers. A
random method of sampling was used for data
collection. A total of 155 forms were distributed
and 120 completely filled forms were used for
analysis, an effective percentage of 77.4%. An
arbitrary scale questionnaire was designed to study
the retailer perception during this pandemic
situation in the country.
4. OBJECTIVE:
1. To analyze the change in sale of various
commodities during Covid 19
2. To identify the keep factors affecting the sales of
retailers during Covid 19
3. To analyze change in trend of purchase of
consumers through retailer's perception
5. DATA INTERPRETATION:
We have conducted a survey among different
retailers with the help of questionnaire by which we
come to know about following results. We have
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focused on two key points while conducting a
survey. They are:
1) Effect on overall sales of the following category
of goods due to corona virus pandemic.
2) Increase in demand of various product during
this Corona Pandemic.
The three verticals of FMCG sector which we have
taken into consideration for our research and
survey are Food & Beverages, Home Care Products
and Personal Care Products.
So, we have applied the formula of a weighted
mean and the results are presented as below:
Effect on overall sales of the following category
of goods due to corona virus pandemic (1-VERY
HIGH & 5-VERY LOW)
According to the survey done (120 Responses) we
have calculated the effect of pandemic on FMCG
products by applying weighted mean formula. The
highest impact of sales has been by staples (3.94)
followed by Dairy products (3.87). Moderate
influence in Snacks is third (3.77) followed by
Convenience (3.46) and Baked products (3.43).
The least impact on sales is by confectionary
(3.07).
According to the survey done (120 Responses) we
have calculated the effect of pandemic on FMCG
products by applying weighted mean formula. The
highest impact of sales has been by surface care,
toilet care and home insecticides (all values at
3.27). Moderate influence in air care (2.80). The
least impact on sales is by dish washing (2.68)
fabric care (2.60).
1 2 3 4 5
8 314
50 45
814
24
58
1612 15 15
50
28
8 8 12
60
32
816
8
72
2416
8
32
64
0
FOOD & BEVERAGESSTAPLES (Atta, Rice, pulses, maida)BAKED PRODUCTSCONVENIENCE (Sauce, Maggi, Jam etc)SNACKS (Chips, kurkure etc)DAIRY PRODUCTS (Cheese, butter)CONFECTIONARY (chocolates, bread, cookies)
1 2 3 4 5
0
16
0
40
24
08 8
40
24
8 8 8
48
32
16 16
0
40 40
816
8
64
168
40
8
48
8
HOME CARE PRODUCTSFABRIC CARE ( Surf, Rin, Comfort etc)
DISH WASHING (Vim bar, Pitambari etc)
SURFACE CARE (Dettol, Lizol, Colin etc)
TOILET CARE (Harpic, Domex, Sani Fresh etc)
HOME INSECTICIDES (Goodknight, Hit, Mortein)
AIR CARE (Odonil, Ambipur, Aer)
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According to the survey done (120 Responses) we
have calculated the effect of pandemic on FMCG
products by applying weighted mean formula. The
highest impact of sales has been by hand sanitizer
(3.73) followed by soap and bath (3.47). Moderate
influence in baby care (3.27), hair care and oral
care (3.00). The least impact on sales is by skin care
and cosmetics (2.73).
Rank the following products under each section
depending on their increase in demand during
this Pandemic coronavirus. (rank 1 – Highest
Demand, rank 5 – lowest demand)
According to the survey done (120 Responses) we
have calculated the effect of pandemic on FMCG
products by applying weighted mean formula. We
have ranked them from Rank 1 to Rank 5 based on
the increase in sales during the pandemic period,
where rank 1 is the highest rank and rank 5 is the
lowest rank. The following are the ranks of sub
categories of Food & Beverages division of FMCG
sector.
RANK 1: STAPLES: 4.55
RANK 2: CONVENIENCE: 4.07
RANK 3: DAIRY PRODUCTS: 3.53
RANK 4: SNACKS: 3.42
RANK 5: BAKED PRODUCTS (2.88) AND
CONFECTIONARY (2.42)
0
20
40
60
80
1 2 3 4 5
0
48
8
40
16
0
24
0
72
16
0
56
16
32
88
24
8
72
08 8
0
48 48
0
16
64
32
8
PERSONAL CARE PRODCUTS
HAIR CARE (Sunsilk, L'Oreal, Parachute etc) SOAP & BATH (Lux, Dove, Dettol etc)
SKIN CARE (COSMETICS)(Fair & Lovely, Lakme, Garnier etc) ORAL CARE (Colgate, Pepsodent, Close up etc)
Hand Sanitizer BABY CARE(Himalya, Johnson & Johnson)
1 2 3 4 5
90
148 8
0
24 24 24
10
38
24
80
16
0 0
40
1624
34
6
30 32 36
166
14 16 18
30
42
FOOD & BEVERAGES
STAPLES (Atta, Rice, pulses, maida) BAKED PRODUCTS
CONVENIENCE (Sauce, Maggi, Jam etc) SNACKS (Chips, kurkure etc)
DAIRY PRODUCTS (Cheese, butter) CONFECTIONARY (chocolates, bread, cookies)
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According to the survey done (120 Responses) we
have calculated the effect of pandemic on FMCG
products by applying weighted mean formula. We
have ranked them from Rank 1 to Rank 5 based on
the increase in sales during the pandemic period,
where rank 1 is the highest rank and rank 5 is the
lowest rank. The following are the ranks of sub
categories of Home care products division of
FMCG sector.
RANK 1: TOILET CARE: 3.92
RANK 2: FABRIC CARE: 3.42
RANK 3: INSECTICIDES: 3.40
RANK 4: DISH WASHING: 2.97
RANK 5: AIR CARE: 2.88
According to the survey done (120 Responses) we
have calculated the effect of pandemic on FMCG
products by applying weighted mean formula. We
have ranked them from Rank 1 to Rank 5 based on
the increase in sales during the pandemic period,
where rank 1 is the highest rank and rank 5 is the
lowest rank. The following are the ranks of sub
categories of Personal care products division of
FMCG sector.
RANK 1: HAND SANITIZER: 3.97
RANK 2: BABY CARE: 3.59
RANK 3: SOAP & BATH: 3.37
RANK 4: HAIR CARE: 2.48
RANK 5: COSMETICS: 2.28
6. DATA ANALYSIS:
Logistic regression is used to predict a categorical
(usually dichotomous) variable from a set of
predictor variables. With a categorical dependent
variable, discriminant function analysis is usually
employed if all of the predictors are continuous;
logit analysis is usually employed if all of the
predictors are categorical; and logistic regression is
often chosen if the predictor variables are a mix of
continuous and categorical variables.
For a logistic regression, the predicted dependent
variable is a function of the probability that a
1 2 3 4 5
49
22
3
22 24
32
8
24
36
20
12
50
10
28
20
32
20
40
20
8
2015
3530
20
HOME CARE FABRIC CARE ( Surf, Rin, Comfort etc)
DISH WASHING (Vim bar, Pitambari etc)
SURFACE CARE (Dettol, Lizol, Colin etc)
HOME INSECTICIDES (Goodknight, Hit, Mortein)
AIR CARE (Odonil, Ambipur, Aer)
1 2 3 4 5
1612
2430
38
24 24
48
20
410 12
2429
45
25 2722
32
14
56
30
1610 8
30
49
1612 13
PERSONAL CARE
HAIR CARE (Sunsilk, L'Oreal, Parachute etc) SOAP & BATH (Lux, Dove, Dettol etc)SKIN CARE (COSMETICS)(Fair & Lovely, Lakme, Garnier etc) ORAL CARE (Colgate, Pepsodent, Close up etc)Hand Santizer BABY CARE(Himalya, Johnson & Johnson)
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particular subject will be in one of the categories
(for example, the probability that the store has the
effected or not effected by Pandemic COVID 19,
given set of scores on the predictor variables). The
predictor variables considered for the study are
number of years of existence, type of outlet, quality
of supply, product demand, company/ brand
reputation, delivery, credit facility, shelf life/
exchange.
Dependent Variable Encoding
Original value Internal Value
No Effect 0
Effect 1
Classification Table a,b
Observed
Predicted
decision Percentage
Correct Effect No_Effect
Step 0 decision Effect 72 0 60
No_Effect 48 0 40
Overall Percentage 60
Step 1 decision Effect 62 15 80.5
No Effect 16 27 62.8
Overall Percentage 74.17
a Constant included in the model
b The cut value is .500
Observed – This indicates the number of
0’s and 1’s that are observed in the
dependent variable.
Predicted – These are the predicted values
of the dependent variable based on the full
logistic regression model. This table shows
how many cases are correctly predicted (72
cases are observed to be 1 and are correctly
predicted to be 1; 48 cases are observed to
be 0 and are incorrectly predicted to be 1 for
step 0. 62 cases are observed to be 1 and are
correctly predicted to be 1; 27 cases are
observed to be 0 and are correctly predicted
to be 0 for step 1), and how many cases are
not correctly predicted (16 cases are
observed to be 0 but are predicted to be 1;
15 cases are observed to be 1 but are
predicted to be 0).
Overall Percentage – This gives the
overall percent of cases that are correctly
predicted by the model. This percentage has
increased from 60.00 for the null model to
74.17 for the full model.
Variables not in the Equation
B SE Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1 Variables Years -1.985 .577 11.83 1 .000 7.279
Outlet .058 .242 0.057 1 .283 1.059
Supply 2.123 .539 15.513 1 .000 8.356
Demand 1.324 .423 9.797 1 .003 3.758
Brand .098 .443 0.048 1 .123 1.102
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Delivery 1.656 .497 11.102 1 .002 5.238
Credit 1.023 .387 6.987 1 .004 2.781
Shelf .784 .532 2.171 1 .067 2.190
Constant 6.231 1.234 25.496 .000
p is the probability of being affected because of
present pandemic situation. Expressed in terms of
the variables used in this example, the logistic
regression equation is:
Log(p/1-p) = 6.231 + 1.985 (Year) + .058
(Outlet) + 2.123 (Supply) + 1.324 (Demand) +
0.098 (Brand) + 1.656 (Delivery) + 1.023
(Credit) + 0.784 (Shelf)
These estimates tells about the relationship
between the independent variables and the
dependent variable, where the dependent variable
is on the logit scale. These estimates tell the
amount of increase (or decrease) in the predicted
log odds of effect = 1 that would be predicted by a
1 unit increase (or decrease) in the predictor,
holding all other predictors constant. Because these
coefficients are in log-odds units, they are often
difficult to interpret, so they are often converted
into odds ratios as shown in exp(b) column at the
end of the table.
7. CONCLUSION:
The four most important factors that are important
for the retail outlets to survive in the pandemic
situations are Quality of supply, Years of existence,
delivery services avialable and product demand.
The current business environment is becoming
increasingly uncertain, unpredictable, and
competitive as a result increasingly more complex.
In today’s context flexibility in supply chains
allows firms to grow at rapid rate, make reach to
maximum number of customers and helps in
avoiding any future disruption. The main reason of
acquiring flexibility concepts in Indian FMCG
industry is customer highly volatile demand.
Retailers prefer stocking products in higher
demand and they require a higher credit for
stocking. FMCG companies have to enhance their
delivery and supply capabilities in markets as the
demand for their products increases. In a way, it
means that an FMCG company may have to
enhance their distribution network as demand for
its products increases. It is also found that with an
increasing demand for a product, retailers seem to
expect a higher amount and period of credit from
their suppliers. Years of existence is another
important factor that influenced the given situation.
It was noticed that those retail outlets which had an
existence in the market for 10-12 years or more
were less effected as compared to the retail outlets
which were less tha 10 years old. Though the
pandemic situation has an overall effect on the
market, but retail outlets having larger years of
existence were able to sustain the pandemic
situation. The products or brands which had a good
supply chain and availability of the products at the
right place and right time were able to generate
effective sales and earnings. Owning to lockdown
there was a demand for higher quantity packaging
products as people avoided coming to stores often.
Most of the retail outlets also provided the home
delivery and credit facility to their customers.
Home care and hygiene products, staple and dairy
products were in high demand during this period of
pandemic.
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