Slide 1
Kuliah Pemasaran Minyak dan Gas BumiS2 TEKNIK PERMINYAKANUNIVERSITAS TRISAKTIMaret 2014
MAIZAR RAHMANDINAMIKA ENERGI DAN MINYAK DUNIAMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201411 PERMINTAAN ENERGI DUNIA TUMBUH MAKIN CEPAT Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20142Diolah dari sumber: WEO 2013, IEA3.7 milyar org 197120062035
6.5 milyar org8.7 milyar org1.49 toe/org1.80 toe/org2.1 toe/org+21%+27%5.5 Gtoe11.7 Gtoe18.6 Gtoe+58%+127%+33%+75%Skenario dewasa iniMaizar Rahman, Seminar Nasional Bioteknologi , 15-16 November 20062Peningkatan permintaan energi disebabkan oleh peningkatan jumlah maupun kesejahteraan penduduk dunia. Selama 25 tahun dari 1971 sampai 2006 penduduk dunia naik sebesar 175 % menjadi 6,5 miliar sedangkan konsumsi per kapita naik sebesar 21% yang menyebabkan konsumsi energi dunia naik sebesar 112% atau 11,7 milyar ton setara minyak per tahun. Pada tahun 2030 jumlah penduduk diperkirakan menjadi 8,2 milyar orang dan konsumsi per kapita pun meningkat 27% menjadi 2,1 ton setara minyak per tahun sehingga konsumsi dunka akan menjadi 17 miliar ton setara minyak per tahun.The world energy demand is growing, due to the growth of world population and the improvement of living standards.3
10 BESAR PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK 2010-2035WOO 2012 OPECMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_20140.9%/th0.2%/th0.9%/thDunia: 0.9%/thAfrika : 2.3 %/th4GDP growth[C+I+G+(X-M)]Private Consumption (C)Retail salesConfidenceWages/salariesWealth effectsGross Investment (e.g. housing) (I)Government Spending (Fiscal policy) (G)External Sector: (Exports, Imports) (X-M)Output related indicatorsLead indicators as PMI surveys (manufacturing, non-manufacturing)Manufacturing orders and actual industrial productionLabor MarketMonetary policyInflationFinancial sectorInterest rates Equity/bond marketsMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20145
WEO-IEA 2013Correlation of economic growth and energy demand6Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014
Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20147
EKONOMI DUNIA, PERMINTAAN DAN HARGA MINYAKUS$ / bblPertumbuhan GDP (%)Pertumbuhan Permintaan Minyak (%)Harga Minyak (US$/bbl)Krisis Finansial AsiaKrisis Finansial DuniaCTT: HARGA MINYAK PADA KRISIS FINANSIAL 2008 SUATU ANOMALIMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_20148
Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20149
PERMINTAAN ENERGI PRIMER DUNIASKENARIO DASARIEA-WEO 2009Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20141011Pertumbuhan Permintaan Minyak Mentah Global(Tahun 2009 2011)Sumber : IEA 10 Februari 2011Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP) Februari 2011Jakarta, 1 Maret 2011
Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014 NEGARA BERKEMBANG MENDOMINASI PERTUMBUHAN PERMINTAAN MINYAK Juta barel/hariSumber: World Oil Outlook 2012 OPEC. 201520202030OECD45.845.242.6Negara Berkembang40.846.356.0Eks Eropa Timur5.25.45.6Dunia91.896.9104.2Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014Maizar Rahman, Seminar Nasional Bioteknologi , 15-16 November 20061213
CINA DAN INDIA MENDOMINASI PERMINTAAN ENERGI ASIA pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penduduk sangat berpengaruhKen Koyama, PhD, Global Oil Demand: Outlook and Uncertainties, 4th Joint OPEC-IEA Workshop, May 19, 2006 , Oslo, NorwayMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014Maizar Rahman, Seminar Nasional Bioteknologi , 15-16 November 200613
Tingkat Konsumsi Negara Berkembang Masih Rendah
Barel/Penduduk/TahunPendapatan (PPP) $/Penduduk/TahunSumber: Rossi.V.Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20141414NE Asia: GDPKETERGANTUNGAN IMPOR MINYAK NEGARA-NEGARA DI DUNIA
IEA-WEO 2009Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201415
KETERGANTUNGAN ASEAN THD IMPOR MINYAKIEA-WEO 2009 Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201416
ASIA TIMUR TERMASUK INDONESIA SANGAT TERGANTUNG MINYAK TIMUR TENGAHOPEC ASB 201317Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014KETERGANTUNGAN THD OPEC AKAN MENINGKAT
SUMBER: OPEC SECRETARIATCADANGAN TERBUKTI DUNIA (MILYARD BBL):NON-OPEC: 299, OPEC: 890Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20141818
MINYAK NONKONVENSIONAL DAN BIOFUEL AKAN MAKIN BERPERANIEA-WEO 2010Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201419
INDONESIA BUKAN PRODUSEN BESAR MINYAK DUNIAMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201420
PRODUKSI MINYAK INDONESIA PER KAPITA SANGATLAH KECILSumber : ASB 2010-2011 OPECMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201421Oil Production Per CapitaReferensi :ASB 2010-2011, OPEC21Sumber : ASB 2010-2011 OPEC
BAREL/PENDUDUKCADANGAN MINYAK INDONESIA PER KAPITA SANGATLAH KECILMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201422OPECs Member Oil Reserves per CapitaReference :ASB 2010-2011, OPEC22
KONSUMSI MINYAK INDONESIA PER KAPITA JUGA MASIH RENDAH DAN BERPOTENSI MENINGKAT SANGAT TINGGI SESUAI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMISumber : ASB 2010-2011 OPECMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201423NERACA MINYAK MENTAH INDONESIA
IEA-WEO 2009 Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201424Sampai saat ini produksi minyak Indonesia belum menunjukkan kenaikan. Dengan upaya keras baru dapat menstabilisasi produksi pada tingkat 950 ribu barel per hari. Menurut kajian Indonesia Energy Outlook 2008, produksi nasional menurun dengan laju 4,4% per tahun sehingga pada tahun 2030 menjadi sekitar 354 ribu barel per hari. Skenario ini tentu akan berubah apabila ditemukan beberapa lapangan minyak baru yang signifikan jumlah cadangannya, upaya mana memerlukan kegiatan eksplorasi yang sangat ekstensif. 24
CADANGAN MINYAK TERBUKTI DUNIA HANYA UNTUK 30 TAHUN KONSUMSIEIA-DOE World Energy Outlook 2010Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201425
CADANGAN BARU MINYAK MAKIN SULIT DITEMUKANIEA-WEO 2010Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201426KUANTIFIKASI SUMBER DAYA MINYAK SEBAGAI FUNGSI BIAYA
IEA-WEO 2008Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201427
Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201428Menurut Dewan Penasehat Perubahan Iklim Jerman, sampai tahun 2050 pangsa energi terbarukan akan telah mencapai 50% dari bauran energi dunia dan mencapai 90% pada tahun 2100. Sebagian besar dari energi terbarukan tersebut akan didominasi oleh energi listrik dari tenaga matahari. Pangsa minyak dan batu bara akan mulai menurun mulai tahun 2030, sementara pangsa gas meningkat dari sekarang dan baru mulai tururn pada tahun 2050. Energi biomasa juga meningkat sampai tahun 2040 namun pangsanya hanya ...% pada tahun 2100. Pemakaian energi anginpun mulai menonjol pada tahun 2020 namun jumlahnya tidak lagi meningkat pada tahun 2040 dan pangsanya pada tahun 2100 hanya ...%.28TERIMA KASIHMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201429
Lahir di Bukittinggi, May 8th, 1948. Kawin, 3 putri.1974, Sarjana Kimia, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta.1976, 1983, Docteur Ingenieur, Chemical Engineering in Petroleum Sciences from IFP, France ---------------------- 1998-2002 Kepala Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Teknologi Minyak dan Gas Bumi LEMIGAS. 2006 Dikukuhkan Profesor Riset. 2011- sekarang, Ketua Scientific Board, Badan Litbang Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral, Kementerian ESDM
PENUGASAN NTERNATIONAL2004 Acting for Secretary General, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), Vienna, Austria. 20052008, OPEC Governor for Indonesia.
PENUGASAN DI KORPORASI2002-2004 Sekretaris Dewan Komisaris Pemerintah untuk PERTAMINA (DKPP). 2002-2006 Presiden Komisaris PT Chandra Asri Petrochemicals Dec 2006-May 2010 Komisaris PT PERTAMINA (Persero)
e-mail: [email protected], [email protected]: +62 21 7243421, fax: +62 21 7226930 mobiles: +62 816 894723, +62 811 8110211, Prof. Dr. Maizar RahmanChart18.70314.14338.70314.14334.28369.7619.382915.02279.382915.02274.7444410.080310.536715.524610.536715.52465.2665410.403811.550716.69411.550716.6945.760910.794613.039317.377613.039317.37766.2221411.045414.410518.390214.410518.39026.7345411.385315.860319.382115.860319.38217.3934512.092216.915620.66616.915620.6668.1437112.897318.884721.791718.884721.79179.0469813.455821.023123.503821.023123.50389.8776513.788823.564125.464623.564125.464610.8420614.718225.51726.033725.51726.033711.6455314.869927.253128.244527.253128.244512.4031815.150531.107528.612831.107528.612813.3835415.233330.881727.917230.881727.917214.1694514.723927.301130.93127.301130.93115.3216214.41830.95011431.31058630.95011431.31058616.2248414.441431.54705133.01434931.54705133.01434917.0089915.298730.22678336.70351730.22678336.70351717.9803516.449431.73827636.02612431.73827636.02612418.4888217.303727.38844838.06265227.38844838.06265218.9865618.047123.37689339.27600723.37689339.27600719.1491818.437419.68323441.56556619.68323441.56556619.521819.243718.52958641.76961418.52958641.76961420.1757819.749818.44016742.55353318.44016742.55353320.8572520.598617.09933343.92916717.09933343.92916721.0682920.896719.16679743.65350319.16679743.65350321.794920.535419.09619945.09720119.09619945.09720122.1974220.577920.99218945.23881120.99218945.23881122.7374320.437523.08468944.03071123.08468944.03071122.7482419.574924.27420442.47819624.27420442.47819622.4319119.505724.75276942.65753124.75276942.65753121.4491919.900126.01077442.06592626.01077442.06592620.4590720.198526.79268341.40131726.79268341.40131719.7603620.259127.15691641.48408427.15691641.48408419.4712421.137427.84757141.97332927.84757141.97332919.9895521.224728.72841742.98278328.72841742.98278320.394121.780530.41489142.73020930.41489142.73020921.0083622.018530.90808742.43431330.90808742.43431321.3398921.940829.67635345.01384729.67635345.01384721.6737721.326230.21245.742930.21245.742922.3226321.8230.24746.431530.24746.431524.611421.820129.18447.772429.18447.772425.870621.901829.70448.615529.70448.615526.881621.733929.78249.763129.78249.763127.878221.884929.7251.284229.7251.284229.167122.117130.06852.41330.06852.41330.224122.188930.78753.196730.78753.196731.022822.173931.83653.679231.83653.679231.779721.899532.96154.126832.96154.126832.49621.630834.09854.588134.09854.588133.213121.37535.32254.98835.32254.98833.800321.187736.43855.516436.43855.516434.359221.157237.72355.905637.72355.905634.881821.023839.08756.257139.08756.257135.359820.897340.56756.524340.56756.524335.745720.778642.04856.728842.04856.728836.063320.665543.58356.905243.58356.905236.387420.517845.30756.920345.30756.920336.563920.356447.05756.94947.05756.94936.748820.200248.88356.920348.88356.920336.869320.05150.68956.809950.68956.809936.941119.868852.53656.692152.53656.692136.998619.693554.41756.574754.41756.574737.050719.52456.34556.452156.34556.452137.092219.359958.33256.314758.33256.314737.112119.2026
non-OPECOPECOECDnon-OECDHistoryProjectionUQEOOBnon-OPECUQEOOBnon-OPECmb/d
figure 1.1
figure 1.113.697102234313.845212022312.382971311512.561997950812.522750128312.9985099602196119611961196112.597011583196219621962196212.2424990619196319631963196311.8354026602196419641964196411.4077832168196519651965196510.905713649196619661966196610.473919743219671967196719679.992728943319681968196819689.521282101219691969196919697.658746478919701970197019708.773739933519711971197119719.386296711197219721972197211.5801713173197319731973197336.4905877219197419741974197433.3275894849197519751975197533.2669154721197619761976197633.3441752933197719771977197731.9829011841197819781978197840.5108537565197919791979197961.9684640148198019801980198064.9715522133198119811981198160.7259143682198219821982198251.7619935976198319831983198348.085373378198419841984198444.2758808356198519851985198521.4118389934198619861986198627.1481532417198719871987198720.9823182162198819881988198824.4811747491198919891989198930.1451653926199019901990199024.1854362506199119911991199123.2267729427199219921992199220.0466817179199319931993199318.6899370046199419941994199419.716084199519951995199523.1337578239199619961996199620.8116203545199719971997199713.4229633645199819981998199818.749669694519991999199919.048591603928.94758019382000200029.520253546622.62451317323.7714603956200123.861496010126.18220777319.968116805724.440672968524.440718.401697519625.584837545119.704248510427.624.776192479822.52519.70624.679216613224.210739601621.986991187624.431191395519.705158542524.203162513523.661025279821.485101148223.87481471519.704766439623.7162326623.123021725520.994390276523.330919146719.703863947423.206064454722.598545523920.516217450922.799511002419.703753802722.708559888122.085749950420.518228203322.281959378719.701561885722.220110967521.584646057820.516939358121.775333374319.701912905421.74414280421.095208804520.515923503321.27972615919.702276351121.277292576420.615939817320.515216568521.279714570719.701180354520.819683805720.616571098620.514747542921.280915295119.700965697120.372822299720.615024501620.514129347621.281256515219.700789202919.935219911420.615677241920.514512191121.28040580519.701107921419.935277640620.616315011120.513246784321.280343698219.702628553419.935383912220.616388185520.513362257321.281015585819.702801561219.934261930620.61521591820.512978800621.280559337619.701442813519.93396799420.616216119820.511799017421.281176764419.701969209719.93445020820.615985140320.512276394621.281062768419.70102088319.935165738920.615445128520.511955693121.280605361119.702246244
20042003200220012000Real oil price forecasts in OWEM, $(2003)/b
figure 1.2
figure 1.228.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193823.77146039562001200120012001200120012001200124.44067296852002200220022002200220022002200227.627.627.627.627.627.627.627.627.624.679216613225.60339848724.508404438324.394145520324.028241448324.78883619723.805037739123.264903057724.074883177324.203162513523.751232394421.763111888121.560664335720.918709677422.26420.531877619.61071428572123.7162326623.892258955121.763111888121.641041828721.084168245622.435575092620.531877619.590027832220.899033782723.206064454724.034122882421.763111888121.721718966621.250935524422.608472410120.531877619.569363199820.798553002322.708559888124.176829148521.763111888121.802696866321.419021865222.782702141820.531877619.548720365720.698555325122.220110967524.320382754721.763111888121.883976649221.588437701322.958274556120.531877619.528099306720.599038428121.74414280424.464788732421.763111888121.965559440621.759193548423.135220.531877619.507520.521.277292576424.605863590122.153730862321.500929951222.292704574823.325638866620.531877619.589381158220.399009864720.819683805724.747751948222.551360928721.046128600522.839296693323.517645342920.531877619.671606005920.298517241920.372822299724.890458497722.95612792720.600947497323.399290637623.711232332620.531877619.754175985820.198519680719.935219911425.033987956723.368159955820.165183148123.973015005523.906412845920.531877619.837092546520.099014742419.935277640625.178345070423.787587412619.738636363624.560806451624.103220.531877619.92035714292019.935383912225.339370797824.198297837919.3160283332201624.293762856120.531877619.878899224319.898984732419.934261930625.501426350124.616099484718.9024684226201724.485832325520.531877619.837527587219.79847966919.93396799425.664518313325.041114788418.4977629098201824.679420319720.531877619.796242052119.69848223319.93445020825.828653315825.473468298118.1017222205201924.874538844420.531877619.755042439819.598989860319.935165738925.993838028225.913286713317.7141608392202025.071220.531877619.713928571419.519.934729061726.214326223326.30609133142021202125.2806316838202119.7345283328202119.935224024326.436684671126.7048502492022202225.4918128503202219.7551496195202219.934161722626.660929235627.10965372382023202325.7047581138202319.7757924541202319.934660740726.887075915427.52059338172024202425.9194822105202419.7964568592202419.93473825527.115140845127.93776223782025202526.136202519.81714285712025
EIA, IEA, Global Insight, PIRAOPEC, PEL, NRCan, DBAB, EEAOWEMEIAIEAPELPIRAGINRCanDBABEEAReal basket price $(2003)/b: a comparison of projections
figure 1.3The changing ranking of regional GDP20002025
figure 1.310974979748264418.129351692.41653.51590.41549.31449.41139.9363.76
2000
figure 1.4231022140616402106367362.64213.94106.83938.93356.13283.52656.7953.88
2025
figure 1.4 continuedGDP per capita growth*, %pa* 5-year moving averages as thicker lines
figure 1.4 continued1.7487166544.04629368554.5089488592-1.2153780579-1.19432713163.98220646793.00937388394.1301961422.2364930199-0.99535633671.8490014183-3.17065997422.1866257595.56820799672.65101905691.55924173542.1685845662.7923624412.20037082660.5711084627-1.50009872121.56994933741.18880581342.65353035670.53113332742.01948188543.12011830722.90349627972.74445014263.1717458422-1.50083653850.3951890641.68071659912.96559790712.47875841091.98410370081.97590650911.97887652221.98132996962.08036441721.88271114561.88261170671.88501353051.88520871621.88337606941.77953406571.78335883381.88949893431.88382761851.88614820151.78250008551.78450320151.789783841.78137540331.7881231158
Latin AmericaNorth America
figure 2.12.71759529133.76507997915.01126516341.6054016256-0.80845575764.15406260462.39950768732.46737449952.86338785980.4461821521-0.53929614390.24287424421.452155912.02778778032.18173785112.43927320142.46790601073.47076808492.81566966084.27563884440.52464846440.5702211826-0.4702884351.94073348832.33139493421.64049031632.51254032462.53926322952.06750592673.15260415530.88569934831.69884716660.69370328291.99861774771.99341295351.98927745711.99147449861.99424461231.99572786152.09586464332.09452549822.09835128542.09463907442.09970693112.0901196362.20300769242.19291553072.19830884262.20408780922.19109393682.19946552212.19964990852.30081764592.29863692692.3014959724
Latin AmericaWestern Europe
figure 2.22.79420914745.79325196856.4895576048-1.43922637211.26788691413.25077144553.20387827393.93807596314.45232422961.41859746472.25920549972.13616520831.86382100163.74931496673.91140527522.77159683634.31080998155.99553331824.51034025774.57992567262.88159951821.06186945150.81190402531.86588611082.42027492393.40566785571.9669694605-1.85785520041.741137833.39081823010.76778817780.09492232292.29546254851.99376265491.49594405912.09542736122.09722344392.19732527652.19842931042.20021056081.99267314042.09965127532.10117844822.0999719772.20608793832.10071730092.10116041262.10243114082.20314099052.20470627292.10327379222.20671173372.20887099972.20369716872.3081815118
Latin AmericaOECD Pacific
figure 2.32.19315490560.03542608193.31316301192.55490226-2.1679871268-1.5859745528-4.8866670975-0.46227637312.78678828751.13430980961.0847649429-2.0522664971-3.05060388350.3057304273-0.64823780920.18178034741.09578740581.138047193-1.36294078480.2438524163-2.0749048662-2.6729096895-0.81824137881.53187713880.74469832762.89213951862.1018360225-0.10423766850.10363644671.09604754151.23523506111.66267610380.97394671761.761933641.56886175921.27472639431.36742322491.37279056241.37481117261.47125464491.47155226971.46731594691.56616168341.56714502821.57034055381.67322418881.66927920561.66947656091.77268531231.77181808191.77087159861.87492553231.87112790651.87362108751.9694463731
Latin AmericaMiddle East & Africa
figure 2.43.57140560853.81899517945.63370967330.82581724612.85819371287.74125773145.74646460525.35064747044.79426484463.46294907983.06117501492.23724738023.07127363041.2170720239-1.34875728824.2547751876.40833389766.37608943655.94899855843.90274603893.07572021343.78731145614.49462531595.0664610414.65328045344.17174874183.0575196981-3.68652381443.88963231714.5254660084-0.14295476511.08604365542.46234732693.25634952963.05595269072.96478485032.96252596572.95803794623.06393140993.06660156142.74423981992.76231695182.86402285182.8671340392.86684840962.7695151252.77376304752.5754321952.67573883042.47568530422.48099225842.28002198582.38241161922.38030426582.3803727032
Latin AmericaSouth East Asia
figure 2.519717.07809605355.39698005917.21037012445.38071756920.13647693845.76803375482.78994586752.90062475152.92402756973.0922485197-3.4340057188-3.2765722277-4.74408693132.5708568064.78017334054.813114121.5195136996-0.80795420461.7447824198-4.046945009-1.5853932619-0.91167385052.54402371423.61524905793.01502188651.77147558942.4303231877-0.2937687879-0.74527891392.4929179898-0.70362886341.0912031116-0.59508011332.47180137872.877586142.87435448552.97746436652.97178983852.98065399532.97668530872.77228498182.77770896392.77753954092.77441844512.88236787742.58077834692.58718608572.57973082482.68793316352.68413187732.48853464832.48745827612.58591623582.59204229042.5887464402
Latin AmericaLatin America
figure 2.6GDP per capita growth*, %pa* 5-year moving averages as thicker lines
figure 2.66.91612834158.03523801535.69480255322.55429911461.605638830910.55660642133.8135230564-5.1862264685-0.2026250886-4.9885904929-4.1667198256-2.04371702381.2113350544-0.4092550942-1.9182336188-3.9736539519-0.0499137852-1.1193978171.49127754863.19491277113.35149070723.05901778930.66617223250.78329973122.82244183053.6243263532.5687460387-5.2756769937-1.25233789652.66458023541.21214440421.96168557060.68743566512.75168471642.15935925742.26113206472.26282417942.25888551772.36573367062.35984626211.47886798431.98962661422.16821265832.21909592962.25164911672.2802423752.29633445312.30335998242.41463804572.41418237722.31666265482.31822754252.31526428882.31217729372.3138463279
Latin AmericaOPEC
figure 2.7-1.2434952288-4.01925501141.5071626223-0.51958346775.9509326110.27414377554.99427063923.5094952026-4.99317472123.49789248183.65124711621.39473663344.79830085111.60638297873.84833617042.52762832342.80682680996.51475472672.94775335023.3602249273-0.28187536863.05994457212.30217638684.82382924634.83563246194.74236164912.2227501494.14215886884.54549977972.41295108822.93976197153.82438335414.93279718384.41959380064.34065177973.93134496523.93242451633.95479343244.02607762124.05130423254.03888585444.15382513034.13553419984.14294813744.25196357153.7421767023.74487673613.76128445553.85399050823.86390830033.44812040113.56976035443.55973633843.5625536253.6714773296
Latin AmericaSouth Asia
figure 2.84.22565895372.196955864210.23150668642.14914322975.0357985585-4.11687910846.58552223086.29911233686.08175176625.58292561473.2110221377.03834345818.355755441212.910605838714.55965420997.22862332239.7404098219.54384849952.46919323172.38828198497.852465150912.947608402212.318855961511.5480647887.88709471788.74859758579.09968075286.85129802616.19743322737.14003016396.46720342636.04210134637.6383734437.14119403136.651501826.15931470175.95116059255.96284238115.95097199325.95845791565.95267172065.86924013445.76768631115.66205673955.67201218535.57036496465.4727950135.47278233315.57433535095.57818172875.0779607215.07725777245.18265784345.18118911475.1834057474
Latin AmericaChina
figure 2.94.48621789443.1867081447.59948293094.8761201013.35261341294.98872850713.80891798473.55830514271.66355104051.50956333312.41725403753.07690259483.2733459531.79517995680.87736815951.6906532580.85846976463.23651626571.6509902583-5.3410424281-7.2087441727-14.700453266-10.2393242698-14.2403428811-5.5686353707-3.34429289842.1382826696-2.92394293395.3822767958.71859225216.3019858789-2.14117926796.61373028485.50878151564.01182788364.00667593664.00973076194.00373345694.00903649544.00968143673.80586051123.60983637253.50593593343.50385203913.50576601143.40751206313.40881969723.40696147433.40851108383.40618748423.20761246563.20555593073.20456859273.20655172833.2058519872
Latin AmericaFSU
figure 2.105.56761377373.11275530673.12214012865.47124831993.92033786777.56006764275.36132216366.12158072565.70954278272.91983278290.90396182.04782801862.08254464443.7482750489-0.12849073663.05012379110.5191789627-0.6890321392-2.1858103813-4.9723983144-12.2834971779-8.6535085442-5.80177244713.08796686985.46731607423.78487503171.30790541960.95699060930.23553956284.06489498023.67095617954.30325374043.90495947424.70833747655.21083076784.60803414834.610469314.60724330534.6098397214.60976221654.40853188874.31220115054.11411952584.11115586764.11265806433.91172358623.9115299653.91276006043.91189873054.01519666713.81493550693.81451827133.81682715363.8141633843.8168035235
Latin AmericaOther Europe
figure 2.112.5271067511.91711484582.30262470153.88946859730.31255509970.61653119662.685737293-0.93554714723.23928062581.0279918706-2.1083334061-2.0192988339-0.35450584031.5844071788-2.19766995722.92932838761.7341134163-1.019232574-4.3681082540.22223466092.6918096852.15548736131.87880254893.47339428851.11297564682.61533623833.9090600049-0.4418766258-1.86576007711.0138474363-1.463293501-4.1311835543.24844395932.163041772.26721608372.26533698012.26245585572.27128808442.36402558262.36555427532.27032916132.36720901542.37115274472.37032303942.36526645622.37266389832.37194658452.37111050132.47639403982.46869294542.37567557922.37254974052.37592628742.37316476252.3737662262
Latin AmericaDC exporters
figure 2.12
figure 2.121.80268.05927.8287
2000-2025Growth in oil demand, 2002-2025, mb/d
figure 2.13
figure 2.1324.71494.515147.7264
&APage &P2000Oil Demand: 2002
not used52.54366.317755.7854
&APage &P2020Oil Demand: 2025
Sheet4
Sheet40.2370.1070.085050000000000.0713750.05056250.20228750.62020000000000.07743750.01530000000000.21973333330.05793333330.03077333330000000000.13029333330.07353333330.26980666670.877920000000000.05680.0139133333
2002-20102010-2025OECDOECDDCsDCstransition economiestransition economiesAsiaOPEC & other exp.N. Am.N. Am.W. Eur.W. Eur.OECD Pac.OECD PacificAsiaOPEC & other exp.Africa & M.E.L. Am.FSUFSUotherotherL. Am.Africa & M.E.N. AmericaW. EuropeOECD PacificLatin AmericaAfrica & Middle EastOPEC & other exportersAsiaRussiaother EuropeAnnual growth in oil demand, 2002-2025, mb/d pa
0.357564560.3617166578-0.018614160.6561519289-0.221737416-0.120146672-0.0406057760.55127632-0.0727076720.0997233040.0458305920.6823244240.0416238320.2173820640.2248176880.6851536960.07926646930.24419823470.22650240.8240537493
1971-19801980-19901990-20002010-20252000-2010Elec. Gen.IndustryHH/CommTransportAnnual global growth in oil demand by sector, mboe/d
0.09022613330.0766609778-0.10443384890.3904667556-0.157493464-0.15515816-0.117508160.35700232-0.027670240.081083040.0096203280.45270360.0026385120.025160240.0505252960.193711760.00260504530.02137850670.017630240.15244736
1971-19801980-19901990-20002010-20252000-2010Elec. Gen.IndustryHH/CommTransportAnnual growth in oil demand by sector in OECD countries, mboe/d
0.11568311110.17550589330.02733111110.187587360.0071404480.0473265520.0948298080.1640756880.0661917120.1801336640.133210720.3474783760.0546336640.1713667360.1714691440.3894375440.08491296530.21348118930.21374089070.602476304
1971-19801980-19901990-20002010-20252000-2010Elec. Gen.IndustryHH/CommTransportAnnual growth in oil demand by sector in Developing Countries, mboe/d
0.15165531560.10954978670.05848857780.0780978133-0.0713844-0.012315064-0.0179274240.030198312-0.111229144-0.1614934-0.097000456-0.117857552-0.0156483440.0208550880.0028232480.102004392-0.00825154130.0093385387-0.00486873070.0691300853
1971-19801980-19901990-20002010-20252000-2010Elec. Gen.IndustryHH/CommTransportAnnual growth in oil demand by sector in Transition Economies, mboe/d
25.132736334533.9421326334543.3258112334553.3142178334564.1022249334575.674579334588.10155613345101.40186073345115.57138833345130.86374543345147.52845953345165.78670813345184.90819123345205.43015633345227.45466143345249.07086153345270.39808963345293.12637523345316.65520533345340.98327393345365.62107753345389.43373763345412.25977123345434.57447683345456.51471093345478.64098553345500.69812163345523.37740373345546.54315433345570.43826643345594.65177053345618.74831863345643.05792473345667.41256433345691.77683993345716.33345741.91318153345768.04542953345794.2445093345820.9386383345848.1166113345875.49624653345902.96527053345930.6370753345958.47891953345986.562453533451014.89344433451043.481782533451072.363930233451101.555253633451131.064147733451160.899737533451190.878115633451221.256805333451252.049822633451283.268482533451314.808547933451346.733195733451379.025236733451411.725329633451444.867526633451478.469963633451512.544138133451547.102606133451582.158872633451617.72936263345
Mean URR assessment1727 billion bbls41 Yearsbn barrelsWorld cumulative oil production and the resource base
0.5363.51184.3783.30396.4691.93628.3160.3969.449-0.6056
OPECnon-OPECIncremental OPEC and non-OPEC production, mb/d
8.70314.14338.70314.14334.28369.7619.382915.02279.382915.02274.7444410.080310.536715.524610.536715.52465.2665410.403811.550716.69411.550716.6945.760910.794613.039317.377613.039317.37766.2221411.045414.410518.390214.410518.39026.7345411.385315.860319.382115.860319.38217.3934512.092216.915620.66616.915620.6668.1437112.897318.884721.791718.884721.79179.0469813.455821.023123.503821.023123.50389.8776513.788823.564125.464623.564125.464610.8420614.718225.51726.033725.51726.033711.6455314.869927.253128.244527.253128.244512.4031815.150531.107528.612831.107528.612813.3835415.233330.881727.917230.881727.917214.1694514.723927.301130.93127.301130.93115.3216214.41830.95011431.31058630.95011431.31058616.2248414.441431.54705133.01434931.54705133.01434917.0089915.298730.22678336.70351730.22678336.70351717.9803516.449431.73827636.02612431.73827636.02612418.4888217.303727.38844838.06265227.38844838.06265218.9865618.047123.37689339.27600723.37689339.27600719.1491818.437419.68323441.56556619.68323441.56556619.521819.243718.52958641.76961418.52958641.76961420.1757819.749818.44016742.55353318.44016742.55353320.8572520.598617.09933343.92916717.09933343.92916721.0682920.896719.16679743.65350319.16679743.65350321.794920.535419.09619945.09720119.09619945.09720122.1974220.577920.99218945.23881120.99218945.23881122.7374320.437523.08468944.03071123.08468944.03071122.7482419.574924.27420442.47819624.27420442.47819622.4319119.505724.75276942.65753124.75276942.65753121.4491919.900126.01077442.06592626.01077442.06592620.4590720.198526.79268341.40131726.79268341.40131719.7603620.259127.15691641.48408427.15691641.48408419.4712421.137427.84757141.97332927.84757141.97332919.9895521.224728.72841742.98278328.72841742.98278320.394121.780530.41489142.73020930.41489142.73020921.0083622.018530.90808742.43431330.90808742.43431321.3398921.940829.67635345.01384729.67635345.01384721.6737721.326230.21245.742930.21245.742922.3226321.8230.24746.431530.24746.431524.611421.820129.18447.772429.18447.772425.870621.901829.70448.615529.70448.615526.881621.733929.78249.763129.78249.763127.878221.884929.7251.284229.7251.284229.167122.117130.06852.41330.06852.41330.224122.188930.78753.196730.78753.196731.022822.173931.83653.679231.83653.679231.779721.899532.96154.126832.96154.126832.49621.630834.09854.588134.09854.588133.213121.37535.32254.98835.32254.98833.800321.187736.43855.516436.43855.516434.359221.157237.72355.905637.72355.905634.881821.023839.08756.257139.08756.257135.359820.897340.56756.524340.56756.524335.745720.778642.04856.728842.04856.728836.063320.665543.58356.905243.58356.905236.387420.517845.30756.920345.30756.920336.563920.356447.05756.94947.05756.94936.748820.200248.88356.920348.88356.920336.869320.05150.68956.809950.68956.809936.941119.868852.53656.692152.53656.692136.998619.693554.41756.574754.41756.574737.050719.52456.34556.452156.34556.452137.092219.359958.33256.314758.33256.314737.112119.2026
non-OPECOPECOECDnon-OECDHistoryProjectionUQEOOBnon-OPECUQEOOBnon-OPECmb/d
9.1680.30350.31310.01039.4430.32620.33290.01319.7350.33990.34970.015110.0890.35120.37670.015710.2920.35980.4160.017210.5690.36710.47120.019311.2680.37560.46810.022912.0120.4170.47910.03412.520.44480.4840.050912.8220.46890.48740.05613.5960.47680.49010.187313.5820.52140.46810.315813.8050.54430.47980.338713.7820.55870.48190.419513.1310.69680.49310.414712.4690.85250.67280.441712.080.95670.97170.459312.1871.1611.50790.488612.6841.431.91950.482812.7221.72992.46510.478612.7282.34142.64730.447812.5232.79172.81890.438712.5433.23643.1850.437312.6623.19293.64130.426213.0563.22593.97950.511713.1373.17894.15040.599312.8192.99294.2610.626712.6233.13984.3670.619212.5193.1254.33940.623311.7973.14354.23380.571711.5193.13154.38510.637511.513.27354.6510.644411.4813.26945.0010.637411.2693.27785.27790.632911.1523.27766.34280.599611.1833.18266.4660.626411.2343.32366.84270.627811.3063.49816.80330.659511.1793.55866.74320.703210.7133.43136.86650.571810.8163.54626.95010.750610.7923.56566.69530.767810.9183.59316.63370.757110.9123.77516.36640.680511.0433.77856.39630.667611.0983.83626.48590.697211.0463.87546.54420.723710.9963.90336.52460.750310.9483.91096.26360.776910.9033.91096.01310.803710.8613.91095.77260.830410.823.91095.59940.857310.9133.93125.43140.880810.8993.95165.26850.904310.8873.97195.11040.927910.8783.99224.95710.951510.874.01254.80840.975110.8424.01254.66410.998710.8174.01254.52421.002210.7944.01254.38851.005710.7724.01254.25681.009210.7533.97444.12911.012710.7353.93674.00521.016310.723.89943.88511.019910.7063.86243.76851.023410.6943.82583.65551.0271
USA & CanadaW. EuropeMexicoOECD PacificHistoryProjectionUQEOUBUQEOMBUQEOWBUQEOJBmb/dNon-OPEC production, OECD regions
02.7452.745196119613.083196219623.458196319633.826196419644.152196519654.51196619664.922196719675.348196819685.74196919696.097197019706.563197119717.037197219727.474197319738.008197419748.564197519759.159197619769.6691977197710.1331978197810.591979197910.8311980198011.2571981198111.3611982198211.4321983198311.5011984198411.4341985198511.1091986198611.4721987198711.6481988198811.651989198911.3321990199010.651199119919.568.0210.97997.1040.98.0046.3820.8487.236.1660.8837.0496.0530.9487.0016.1421.0337.1756.0921.1157.2076.1291.2427.3716.5021.3317.8336.991.5378.5277.6281.7059.3338.4271.78310.218.9171.87510.7929.2732.01611.2899.6442.17311.8179.8272.33612.16310.0122.51112.52310.2012.712.90110.3942.90213.29610.4983.1213.61810.6033.30713.9110.7093.47214.18110.8163.61114.42710.9243.71914.64311.0333.79414.82711.1443.8715.01411.1443.94715.09111.1444.02615.1711.1444.10615.2511.1444.18915.33311.1444.27215.41611.1444.35815.50211.1444.44515.58911.1444.53415.678
RussiaCaspianRussia & CaspianHistoryProjectionUQEOVBUQEOKBmb/dNon-OPEC production, transition country regions
0.64750.1410.11850.10440.72490.15250.11170.10670.78370.18190.11780.11550.82190.20970.12340.13020.84480.23440.1360.17030.86640.24340.15880.22720.92560.26740.20530.29231.03940.4090.23320.27881.08730.75930.26010.32121.11881.0250.28570.43671.12191.27250.30550.61561.15771.27830.36350.8061.2531.23360.4440.9341.40371.27470.48671.09641.3741.30150.45031.32631.34211.55970.47281.5761.36071.56690.57841.78261.40121.60320.64451.91511.49351.69980.72472.1281.54571.73030.86872.17091.5991.84340.76212.16681.63911.93440.78292.07011.69391.99390.93522.08861.77492.20161.13872.16931.97292.45221.26332.3442.07852.65811.31722.55432.17862.68671.41072.67282.10122.97351.36442.74342.20773.25861.44942.80282.25893.44881.55252.8152.36443.66871.70542.77862.33473.83591.74072.83252.46233.94651.76272.85472.57214.08891.75312.91652.71854.281.88552.93482.95044.52572.01473.01443.17154.64831.98043.16083.37614.74372.04523.22933.60684.78492.05893.23873.73584.832.08033.21793.73544.9472.08383.27813.77164.93532.20473.29743.87425.09372.26843.39343.865.0792.35373.41443.96145.3632.39423.39394.21735.75642.48433.40074.44575.93112.52813.43474.68466.0692.52313.4694.86116.20922.51833.50374.97656.35182.51383.53885.09396.49682.48573.57425.21326.58112.45863.60995.33446.66592.43243.6465.4376.75142.40723.68255.51546.83762.38283.71935.5956.85852.35933.75655.67596.87952.33673.75655.75796.90042.31493.75655.84116.90042.27453.75655.92576.90042.23483.75656.01146.83462.1963.75656.08116.76932.15793.71896.1346.70482.12063.68176.17546.64092.0843.64496.19936.57762.04823.60856.19936.5152.01313.5724
Latin AmericaChinaAsiaAfrica & Middle EastHistoryProjectionUQEOABUQEOQBUQEODBUQEOSBmb/dNon-OPEC production, developing country regions
91.31922398591.67491.319223985990.36097071372.03190.92203137682.29490.92649765483.05287.382892350210.72574.4862413410.73381.477300112411.5179.660811498212.39574.918177506512.70477.716142643817.24577.454009583228.64265.245006630332.50856.001708898732.38353.921398489929.03756.945170209528.20457.188011827627.00765.506019537613.53363.788308106117.72571.407951414214.24380.599451809917.31186.602570951922.25793.019134251718.62295.407284290118.4492.264836697516.32589.662532987415.52789.562948025516.8690.560735419520.29190.164244791918.67688.327322558612.28282.732006447717.47588.573983408227.59684.052513189523.1278.996871633824.185.933419286628.185.327586206980.6312579.131313131376.083086053473.573770491875.037681159472.219354838774.524079320171.450793650875.292817679672.0576.229110512172.864615384677.152631578973.6909090909
oil priceexcl. IraqHistoryProjectionoil price%$/bOPEC capacity utilisation rates, %