Will there be war again between China and Vietnam?

1

CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Research question and relevance

1.2 Methodology

1.3 Theory of IR

1.4 Definitions

1.5 sources

2. ANALYSIS OF THE CASE OF SINO-VIETNAM WAR IN 1979

2.1 The international structure: China USA and SU

2.2 The changing relations between China and Vietnam

2.3 The direct cause

2.4 New leaders and government in china

3.WILL THERE BE WAR AGAIN NOW?

3.1 The international structure

3.2 The new relations between China and Vietnam

3.3 China’s new policy on South China Sea11

2

4 FINAL THOUGHTS

5 REFERENCES

1. Introduction

1.1 Research question and relevance

27th,may,2011,Vietnam government announced that “three

Chinese patrol ship harass a Vietnam ship searching oil,

and destroy the equipment on the ship, Vietnam warn China

that China do not do something to violate Vietnam’s

sovereignty and China should pay for the destroy of the

ship .”.5th,june,hundreds of Vietnam people protest

3

Chinese ship violate Vietnam’s territory outside the

Chinese Embassy in Vietnam.10th,june Vietnam military ship

drag Chinese fishing ship flashbacking for an hour. At

the same day, a Vietnam nationalized paper announced that

Vietnam will hold military maneuver on 13th June. The

relation between China and Vietnam tensed suddenly. Will

there be a war again after the first Sino-Vietnam war in

1979? This is the question this paper wants to research

and will give the answer the writer think. The relevance

of this topic is that:

First, to China the South China Sea means a lot of oil

and other recourses, now China’s economy is developing

fast, it need recourses especially oil to sustain the

high developing rate of economy. Secondly, the position

of these little island make the international shipping

4

line can not shy away them, who control these island, who

will control the international shipping line greatly

partly. Thirdly, after Vietnam became a member of

association of South East Asian nations, Vietnam wants to

settle the issue with the whole ASEAN. While China just

want to hold bilateral negotiation with Vietnam and other

nations like Philippines. Fourthly, the relation between

China and Vietnam is very complicated, in 1979, the two

nations broke out a war, will that be a war again?

Everyone wants to know.

1.2 Methodology

Comparative method will be use in this paper. The

Sino-Vietnam war in 1979 will be look back. Though the

analysis of the causes of the war, I want to find out

5

what caused the war. Just a few years before the war

China and Vietnam were in the relation of brotherhood.

After finding the causes, I will compare the crisis now

with the crisis in 1979 to find out whether there are

causes which can lead the situation to a war. The second

method is analysis of level. Kenneth waltz propose the

method of level analysis in his great work “Man，State and

War”. He differentiated the level of analysis to three

levels: international structure, nations and policy

maker. In this paper, I will use this method to analyze

the causes of the war and find if there were causes again

this time.

1.3 theory of IR

Realism is the main theory of international relations

6

this paper focused. And also constructivism is important

in the analysis of trust between China and Vietnam.

Realism tells us that:

a) People are sinful and wicked.

b) Of all people’s evil ways, their lust for power and

their desire to dominate others are the obvious.

c) The international politics is struggle for power.

d) The primary obligation of every state is to promote

the national interest, defined as the acquisition of

power.

e) The anarchical nature of the international system

necessitates the acquisition of military capabilities

sufficient to deter attack by potential enemies.

f) Allies might increase the ability of a state to defend

itself, but their loyalty and reliability should not

7

be assumed.

g) Never entrust the task of self-protection to

international organizations or to international law.1

Though the causes of Sino-Vietnam war, we can see that

the allies China and Vietnam combined to confront the USA

could not ensure the relations between the two nations

for long. After Vietnam unify itself, it became to invade

other national immediately to make itself more powerful,

it make China unsatisfied and afraid that Vietnam would

be a potential enemy.

And the constructivism think that the international

structure build the nations. What nations behaved was

decided by the structure. 2We can see that in the bipolar

structure, nations such as China and Vietnam behaved as

1Charles W. Kegley, Jr, Controversies in International Relations Theory,

Peking University Press, 2004, p5.2 Griffiths, Martin. International Relations Theory for the Twenty-first Century, Routledge, 2007, p60.

8

the bipolar structure told. When Vietnam was invade by

the USA, it seek for aid from the other side of the

bipolar that was China and the Soviet Union, after China

turn to USA isolating the Soviet Union with USA, Vietnam

strength the relations with the Soviet Union .in the

bipolar, you can just choose one polar.

1.4 Definitions

The main definition in this paper is “war”, war means a

conflict carried on by force of arms, as between nations

or between parties within a nation; warfare, as by land,

sea, or air. 1According to Jack Levy, participation of a

state is determined by “a minimum of 100 battle

fatalities or the involvement of 1,000 armed personnel

actively engaged in combat.”2

1 Dictionary.com, entry on war, http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/war.2 Levy, Jack S. War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495–1975.Lexington:

9

1.5 sources

The main resources are from the author’s reading

background. Except that some books and papers were found

on the internet using google searching engine. The

analysis of current situation was based upon recently

newspaper and reviews on this issue.

2. Analysis of the case of Sino-Vietnam war in

1979

2.1 The international structure: China USA and SU

In the whole cold war, the Soviet Union and USA

completed for the world hegemony, they conflict with each

other in every scope especially the military and power to

control other states for their own profit. Between the

University Press of Kentucky, 1983, p63.10

two super power, there still a third biggest power that

can influence the international relations and the two

biggest powers’ policy. This is China. There is a

triangle among the three states. In the beginning, the

Soviet Union and China combine together to confront the

USA, this is a conflict between different ideologies. And

also because of USA help Nationalist Party in Taiwan to

angst CCP government on the mainland. But in the later

period in 50s, a lot of disputes came out between the

Soviet Union and China. The two communist governments had

deep different thought in the Marxism and how to

construct socialism and also some disagreement on how to

confront the USA. Because the issue of Taiwan ,China and

the USA was always in the state of hostility, while after

Krushchev take the charge of the Soviet Union government,

11

he want to conduct peaceful competition with the USA

instead of fierce policy. Maozedong was dissatisfied, he

wanted the Soviet Union to stand with China to confront

the USA fiercely and directly to force USA to make a

concession on Taiwan issue. And the other hand Maozedong

was unhappy that SU was too presumptuous too treat China

as a little brother and want to command China to do this

to do that. in 1962, the alliance broke up, even in

1969,a battle broke out at ZhengBao Island. While on the

other hand China was isolated by two biggest power, Mao

want to find ally to help China, first he find these

little state in Africa and pacific ocean, and after that

Mao and the USA government consistently find they should

joint together to hold back the expansion of the SU. So

in 1972, Nixon visit China, the two states achieved the

12

normalization in relations.

So, briefly, the international structure before is

that China confront the direct threaten from the SU ,and

also the expansion of the su make USA want to find a new

company to solve the dilemma, so China and USA come

together. The SU was isolated.

2.2 The changing relations between China and Vietnam

So back to the relations between China and Vietnam, in

the beginning, China Vietnam and the SU were in the same

line to confront USA. Especially in Vietnam, USA support

South Vietnam government to against the communist

government in North Vietnam just as in Korea. Even then

USA sent army directly to participate the Vietnam War

until 1973. From the beginning, China give the north

13

communist army support such as food, weapons and helping

the north army training soldiers and commander. Chinese

government gives the north communist government about 10

billion to 18 billion dollars aid to help against the

south part and USA military. And also China sent a large

number of army garrisoning on the board with Vietnam, it

threatened the USA army. So USA did not sent land force

to north Vietnam until 1971.while at the same times, some

disagreement showed up in the relation of China and

Vietnam.

The first crack was related to the fail of Khrushchev.

The successive leaders of the Soviet Union wanted to do

something to warn the Americans. They decided to promote

the support to Vietnam. In February 1965 ， Moscow put

forward some requests as followed:

14

First, it wanted the arms for Vietnam to be permitted

to get through China.

Secondly, it wanted to use one or two airports in

Yunnan Province and quarter 500 people in the airports.

Thirdly, it wanted China to agree to open up a air

aisle for the Soviet Union air force.

Fourthly, it wanted China to permit 5000 Soviet Union

soldiers to get cross China.

Fifthly, it required to hold a trilateral negotiation

against USA.

In November 1965, China rejected four requests except

the first one. The reason was that China and the Soviet

Union were in bad relation at that time. The reject was

aimed to the Soviet Union. But the fact is that Vietnam

was hurt deeply even though the Soviet Union was beat. At

15

the beginning, China and the SU both gave the north

Vietnam aid, and obviously, Chinese aid was more than the

SU at a large degree, but after this crack, the SU aid

came to Vietnam more and more ,the aid from SU overtook

China in a very short time.

After the nationwide unity of Vietnam in 1975, China

tried to persuade Vietnam to get away with the Soviet

Union and be on guard hegemony of it, it was useless.

Because Vietnam refuse this advise, China decided to stop

the aid to Vietnam. So Vietnam moved to Moscow.

The second crack is that China adjusted the policy

to USA. Nixon’s visiting to China is too unacceptable to

Vietnam. Vietnam can understand Chinese Government wanted

cooperation with Vietnam’s enemy. They begin to suspect

China and feeling betrayed. What will China do? Vietnam

16

was so upset.

But it did not mean the Sino-Vietnam war will come.

Crack just crack, it still can be fixed. But in next

years, the relation was not being fixed but more and more

destroyed.1

2.3 The direct cause of the war

There were three main causes of the war. Territorial disputes

were the first one and the most important and direct one .there

were three parts of territorial disputes between China

and Vietnam: the boundary line on land, the divide of

Beibu Gulf, and the islands of Xisha and Nansha. The most

intense dispute was about the island of Xisha and Nansha.

These little islands have little value themselves but

1 Brantly ,Womack, China and Vietnam: The Politics of Asymmetry,

http://www.google.com/books?hl=zh-

CN&lr=&id=GaZvX2BzeegC&oi=fnd&pg=PR9&dq=china+vietnam&ots=tPzOcEfgrF&sig=dk7

gcQWkSu2r6d9xUhYjtHFhadM#v=onepage&q&f=false17

they were at main shipping lines and had bountiful

resources around. After China took Xisha islands back in

1974, South Vietnam capture six islands of Nansha and

announce that another 11 islands were territory of

Vietnam, after North Vietnam government united the whole

Vietnam, they took over these islands. At the other hand,

on the Vietnam and China border, both sides conflicts

many times In 1977, there were 752 conflicts and 1108

conflicts in 1978, the crisis was deeper and deeper.

The second issue was about the overseas Chinese in

Vietnam. The conflict on the border mainly caused by

Vietnam that expeled Chinese back to China. Countable

Chinese were expel back to China every day. Chinese

government should take over these refugees and on the

other hand can not afford too many people’s food and

18

accommodation. In Vietnam there were 15 million Chinese

lived there. They control the trade and industry. Most

Chinese were rich than native people. It made the native

and government unhappy, so they wanted to deprive

Chinese’s wealth and expel them back to China. In 1978,

Vietnam announced abolishing private ownership of

property, all Chinese’s property was being ransacked out,

and then these Chinese were sent to the new economy zone

to be farmer, many people suicide. And then Vietnam

announced the money of south and north, it meant the

Chinese’s property was being robbed again. Because of the

tense state between China and Vietnam, the war seemed

near, many Chinese run out. In south Vietnam, a lot of

Chinese run off though the ocean and died.

The third direct cause was that Vietnam invaded

19

Cambodia. In Cambodia, China support Pol Pot while

Vietnam stood on the other side. Vietnam assisted Heng

Samrin to confront Pol Pot and in late 1978,Vietnam army invaded

in Cambodia.

2.4 New leaders and government in China

in1976， after the cultural revolution, great changes

happened in China. Chinese economy was at the edge of

collapse and every thing was so confused so that the

political power was in crisis .in this situation the new

leaders in China need change all kinds of policy

including foreign policy. They did not promote the

project of international communism revolution and world

revolution. Maozhedong and the other leaders thought it

is the main profit of China and China should support

other communist party in other states. Now we can know

20

that just because of this view China and Vietnam went to

deep disagreement. In the early period, China aided

Vietnam against USA , while if China stopped the aid to

Vietnam and began searching cooperation with USA, Vietnam

thought it was a bad signal that China will combine with

USA against Vietnam, so Vietnam did a lot of unfriendly

things to China. After Dengxiaoping took the charge of

China government, economic construction became the main

target of the whole China. Economic construction became

the main national interest also. To develop the lagging

economy, Dengxiaoping and new leaders seek to blend into

the world economic system and search cooperation with

west countries, especially USA. At this situation

Dengxioaping think the bad relations between China and

Vietnam give him a chance to show sincerity to

21

cooperation with the west. The dispute between China and

USA mainly was the difference of ideology. If China start

a war in the name of national interest with a socialist

state sharing the same ideology, it would reduce the

suspicion of USA. Also, to Dengxiaoping himself, starting

a war with Vietnam could punish Vietnam and show his

ability in charge. If China will the war, his authority

would be rised.

So in the end, the international structure, the

relation between China and Vietnam, the new leader in new

China make the war come ture.

3. Will there be war again now?

3.1 The international structure

22

After the collapse of the SU and the drastic change in

Eastern Europe, the cold war ended. The behavior nations

should choose in the bipolar structure did not recur

against. These behaviors include: one nation should not

confront with two power polar contemporary, every nation

should choose one polar to seek support and afford

production to maintain the allies, if you choose one

polar you should confront the stress from other polar,

sometimes a little nations can be sacrificed by the

superpower for their own profit. After the bipolar, the

world came into a multipolar structure. Nation do not

take the obligation to fight for others, nations only

fight for themselves. If the profit coming from a war is

not more than the profit by cooperation, nations would

not choose war to receive the goal. So between China and

23

Vietnam, the international structure in which these two

nations confront fiercely do not exist.

3.2 The new relations between China and Vietnam

After 1991, the relations between China and Vietnam

became normalized. The leaders of two nations visit each

other frequently and search proper measure to resolve the

issue in history especially the overseas Chinese issue

and territory issues. Two general secretaries of Vietnam

communist party visit China one after another and

negotiate with the general secretaries of Chinese

communist party to all kind of issues. On the other hand,

the cooperation between economy and trade make the two

nations related tightly. In 2000, the trade between each

other has been over 2.4 billion. And more and more

24

Chinese citizen go to Vietnam for tour. In 1999,China and

Vietnam sign a paper to solve the border on land and in

2000,China and Vietnam sign a paper to solve the divide

of the Beibu Gulf. The two agreements had become

effective one year after signature.

3.3 China’s new policy on South China Sea

Different with the old time, China has been always in

self control when conflict appears on South China Sea. As

IIDA Masafumi analyzed, China has new policy on South

China Sea issue. The first one is expansion the

occupation by using of force. The second is setting aside

disputes and pursuing joint development. The third one is

only seeking bilateral negotiation Vietnam and refuse to

make the issue internationalized. So to be briefly,

25

China’s policy on South China Sea is more flexible than

the past.1

4. Final Thoughts

After the analysis of Sino-Vietnam war in 1979 and the

current situation the paper show that there will not be a

war between China and Vietnam now because the condition

and situation is not completely to support a war. The

relations between China and Vietnam are not so bad to

force the two nations confront directly using military

and neither could afford the cost.

1 IIDA Masafumi, New Developments in China’s Policy on the South China Sea .26

Reference

Charles W. Kegley, Jr, Controversies in International

Relations Theory, Peking University Press, 2004.

Griffiths, Martin. International Relations Theory for

the Twenty-first Century, Routledge, 2007.

Dictionary.com, entry on war,

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/war.

Levy, Jack S. War in the Modern Great Power System,

1495–1975.Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1983.

Brantly, Womack, China and Vietnam: The Politics of

Asymmetry, http://www.google.com/books?hl=zh-

CN&lr=&id=GaZvX2BzeegC&oi=fnd&pg=PR9&dq=china+vietnam&ots

=tPzOcEfgrF&sig=dk7gcQWkSu2r6d9xUhYjtHFhadM#v=onepage&q&f

=false

IIDA Masafumi, New Developments in China’s Policy on

the South China Sea.

27

ZOU KEYUAN, The Sino-Vietnamese Agreement on Maritime

Boundary Delimitation in the Gulf of Tonkin,

http://www.southchinasea.org/docs/zou%20keyuan-sino-

vietnam%20boundary%20delimitation.pdf.

28