Syrian Conflict; Dilemmas and Challenges in Peaceful Settlement

Meah Mostafiz MA, Peace and Conflict Studies European Peace University – EPU, Austria meahmostafiz@gmail.com [With too many International and regional interest groups involved in the Syrian war, this paper analyses why the Syrian conflict is so complex, why the international effort to peace negotiations failed. At the end it tries to find options for a peaceful settlement. ] Date of Submission: July 5th 2013 European Peace Univeristy – EPU, Stadtschlaining, Austria Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Ir. Georg Frerks Chair - Conflict management - Centre for Conflict Studies University of Utrecht, the Netherlands.

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Contents 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….2 2. Research Question………………………………………………………………………2 3. Hypothesis………………………………………………………………………………2 4. Part one: Analyzing the Syrian conflict…………………………………………………..3 4.1 Syria – Country profile…………………………………………………………………3 4.2 How and why the Syrian conflict began………………………………………………...4 4.3 Opposition rebel groups……………………………………………………………….4 4.4 The Regional Actors and their interests………………………………………………...6 4.5 Global actors and their interests………………………………………………………..8 4.6 Who is supplying weapons in Syrian Conflict?..........................................................................9 5. Part two: Why is the Syrian conflict taking too long to resolve?............................................11 5.1 The R2P: the complexity and challenges in Intervention……………………………...11 5.2 A common unified opposition is required…………………………………………….12 5.3 Spoilers……………………………………………………………………………….13 5.4 Fear of Peace…………………………………………………………………………13 5.5 G8 leaders with no joint declaration…………………………………………………..14 5.6 Obama administration’s new move……………………………………………………14 6. Part three - Recommendations: How a peaceful conflict settlement can be achieved?......15 6.1 Managing Syrian conflict……………………………………………………………...15 6.2 Why United Nations Mediation attempt towards Syrian Conflict failed?...........................16 6.3 United Nations Actions in Syria as mediator………………………………………….17 6.4 A peaceful settlement approach offered by the International Peace Initiative for Syria..18 6.5 Declaring Syria as a threat for peace…………………………………………………..18 7. In Conclusion: No conclusion - The Cost of Syrian conflict…………………………...19 References and Bibliographies…………………………………………………...21-24

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1. Introduction

Current report shows more than 100000 people dead (Reuters 2013), as of June 14, 2013 an estimated more than 1.63 million refugees had fled Syria and total may reach 3.5 million by year’s end. Upwards of 4.25 million Syrians may be internally displaced (U.S. Congress 2013), yet many have remained in Syria and are trying to carry on with their daily lives, living amid the violence. (VOA 2013) Every conflict is different and every case has different interests and interest groups. Dealing with the Syrian conflict a common question I hear is why International actors are taking too much time to intervene and resolve this conflict whereas it was quick in responding to the Libyan crisis. To me it seems, International community is shadowing Luttwak's theory “give war a chance”- meaning let war go, it will die itself and will bring a peaceful outcome at the end of the day. There are obviously reasons why the Syrian conflict is so different and why it is so complicated to resolve. I will detail and analyze some of these factors in the recommendations section, my research focuses on how the Syrian conflict can be managed. The U.N. cannot act without an unanimous mandate from the Security Council. Two of the five permanent Security Council members, Russia and China, have blocked any tough Council resolutions against the regime. On the other hand, U.S., UK and France seek conditions that are in their interest. China and Russia veto doing anything against the Assad regime. Important regional actors like Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are playing different roles with different interests, thus making the Syrian conflict even more complex to handle. 2. Research Question Why International actors are taking too much time to intervene in the Syrian conflict and how a peaceful conflict settlement can be found? 3. Hypothesis Various interests of Regional and International Actors, fear of peace, no unified and illegitimate opposition platforms delaying peaceful settlement of the Syrian Conflict. Explanatory hypothesis Regional actors like Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran and Turkey has different political goals beneath the Syrian conflict, as do the International actors like Russia, U.S., China and EU nations. A peaceful settlement of Syrian conflict would bring benefits for some external and internal actors, while other players would lose existing assets, thus creating a fear of peace. Therefore, they cannot come to an agreement. Internally, rebels are not unified under one common leadership and the legitimacy of the rebels among the Syrian people and International community remains questionable.

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4. Part one: Analyzing the Syrian conflict 4.1 Syria – Country profile Official name: The Syrian Arab Republic Geographic location: Syria is located in Southwestern Asia, belonging to the Middle East countries, north of the Arabian Peninsula; at the Eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea, bordered by Turkey on the North, Lebanon and Israel on the West, Iraq on the East, and Jordan on the South. Photo source of Syrian country Map: Shane 2013

Capitol: Damascus Government of Syria: The last French troops left Syria in April of 1946, and the country gained its independence. Syrian government is nominally a republic, but ruled under an authoritarian regime headed by President Bashar al-Assad and the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party, receiving 97.6% votes in the 2007 elections. From 1963 to 2011, Syria was under a State of Emergency that allowed the president extraordinary powers; bans on rallies and organizing campaigns; authorities have the right to cross-examine any person and monitor private communications and review media. State of Emergency has officially been lifted lately but civil liberties remain restricted.( Szczepanski (2013) Syrian politics were bloody and chaotic throughout the 1950s and early 1960s. Hafez al-Assad, father of present president took over both the party and the regime in a 1970 coup, his son Bashar al-Assad became president following Hafez al-Assad's death in 2000. From July 2000, Bashar al Assad has ruled Syria over twelve years. Bashar speaks English and French and has a British born wife. (Shane 2013) Languages: The official language of Syria is Arabic. Important minority languages include Kurdish,Armenian,Aramaic, and Circassian. Many Syrians also speak French and English. Population: 2012 estimate has approximately 22.5 million people of which 90% are Arab, 9% are Kurds, and the remaining 1% includes small numbers of Armenians, Circassians and Turkmens. In addition, about 18,000 Israeli settlers live in the occupied Golan Heights.

Figure 1Photo source of Syrian country Map: Shane 2013

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Religion: Roughly 74% of Syrians are Sunni Muslims, 12% are Alawis or Alawites; Basar al-Assad’s family belongs to this community, 10% are Christians, 3% are Druze. 4.2 How and why the Syrian conflict began It began in March 15, 2011 in Syria’s southwestern city of Deraa, where some 15 school students scrawled anti-government slogans on the walls. Students were arrested by local police and jailed for a month. (France24 2012) Upon their release, locals discovered that the students were tortured in prison; their fingernails had been ripped off and private parts shocked. Locals took to the streets, shouted “the people want the downfall of [Deraa’s] governor!”(First video 2011); people carefully avoided mention of Assad regime. The government responded exasperatingly, the army opened fire on protesters, killing four people. The following day, they shot at mourners during the victims' funerals, killing another person; soon the unrest spread to other parts of the country. Some view the Syrian conflict as a consequence of the Arab Spring and the fall of Tunisian and Egyptian regimes in early 2011,thus encouraging Syrians to take up arms against the Assad regime. (CNN 2013)

A family hegemony of the regime from 1970 in a State of Emergency that prohibits rallies and organizing campaigns; authorities have the right to cross-examine any person and monitor private communications and review media. State of Emergency has officially lifted lately but civil liberties remain restricted. All these set the stage for this uprising.

4.3 Opposition rebel groups The opposition fighting groups consist of a multitude of local militias, army defectors, volunteers fighting in brigades under the banner of the Free Syrian Army and various armed Islamist coalitions. Some of these groups include foreign fighters and Islamist militia groups. Groups with different priorities and political goals control different areas. Al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al Nusra fighters captured the city of Ar Raqqah in March 2013. Kurdish forces took control of their northeastern Syria region. Opposition forces still control significant areas of northwestern, eastern, and southern Syria. U.S. Congress published a profile of the opposition forces in Syria on May 2013 as follows:

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Figure source: US Congress Report

National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces Formed in Qatar, November 2012 Umbrella coalition for opposition groups intended to expand representation and establish legitimate unified voice for engagement with international community. Syrian National Council (CNC) Formed in Turkey, October 2011 Consists mainly of exile activists, including Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, secular elites, intellectuals, independents, and ethnic and religious minorities such as Kurds and Christians. Free Syrian Army (FSA) Consists of brigades made up of various combinations of armed dissident military personnel and civilian volunteers. Muslim Brotherhood of Syria Has opposed the Baathist government for decades through nonviolent opposition and armed violence. Its leaders have remained in exile since the unsuccessful armed uprising of the 1970s and 1980s.

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Kurdish National Council(KNC) Umbrella organization of several smaller Kurdish political parties, brought together by Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani. Local Coordination Committees(LCCs) LCCs active in many Syrian communities created an informal network to link activists nationally, also organize protests, coordinate relief efforts in conflict-affected areas. National Coordination Body for Democratic Change(NCB) A Syria based alliance of leftist groups, Kurdish activists and individuals associated with the 2005 Damascus Declaration on political reform. Kurdish Democratic Union Party(PYD)/Kurdish Popular Protection Units(YPG) The group is US designated terrorist organization and it opposes foreign intervention. Al Nusra Front Emerged in early 2012 and claimed responsibilities for series of high profile suicide bombing attacks against government security forces and summary executions of captured regime soldiers. Its messaging, tactics, and ideology mirror those of Al Qaeda affiliates in other regional conflict zones. Ahrar al Sham Battalions Ahrar al Sham led the creation of the Syrian Islamic Front in December 2012, bringing its forces into closer coordination with other similarly minded militia in northern and eastern Syria. Saqour al Sham Brigade Based in northwestern Idlib province-- calls for the establishment of an Islamic state and has made contradictory statements about Syrian religious minorities. Al Farouq Battalions(FSA/SILF) A coalition of militias that have fought under the banner of the Free Syrian Army. Foot note : Source - U.S. Congressional Research Service.2013. Derived from U.S. government Open Source Center reports, social media and independent analyst reports. The position, size, platforms and membership of the groups are subject to change. 4.4 The Regional Actors and their interests

Syrian conflict has become a chance for regional actors to bring their interests to the table. In this section I will explain a bit about regional actors.

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Saudi Arabia The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is one of the strongest regional supporters of the anti-Assad opposition, betraying their previous friendship with the regime. Its strategy is to weaken the ties between the Assad regime and Iran which Saudi Arabia has always seen as a regional competitor. (Berti and Guzansky, 2012) The Saudi stance is also motivated by hatred for Assad and his Ba'athist secular ideology, plus crackdown of Sunni political opposition. Qatar Qatar has been supportive of the Syrian opposition, either by directly funding or arming them, or simply by turning a blind eye towards the movement of weapons and militants from their country into Syria. (Berti and Guzansky, 2012) Like Saudi Arabia, Qatar wants to remove the Iranian influence in the Levant and greater Arabian Peninsula. Turkey The Turkish-Syrian relations are based on a long, tangled history of about four centuries as part of the Ottoman Empire. This however changed with the Syrian crisis in March 2011, when Turkey failed to get Assad to make the necessary reforms. Turkey then pitched camp with the opposition Syrian National Council, declaring support for it at a meeting in Istanbul in August 2011 (Pitura, 2012). Turkey is hoping that Bashar al-Assad's regime will fall and planning ahead for the post-Assad period in Syria. (International Crisis Group, 2013: 1-4) Iran Iran’s main interest is to block any US-Israeli influence in the region. Therefore it seeks allies like Syria and the Lebanese Hezbollah to fight proxy wars with Israel and the United States. Their aim is to demonstrate Iran’s capability, and at least make it extremely costly for US and Israeli attempts against Iran. Iran therefore, would like to preserve the Assad regime but also aiming at creating another preventive functional environment in post-Assad Syria. Thus Iran used its Quds Force and coordinated with Hezbollah to train pro-Assad forces inside Syria, also encouraging Hezbollah into a direct combat role in Syria against the rebels. Israel Israel so far hasn't taken a position in the Syrian conflict. The Jewish state had a cold but comparatively peaceable relationship with the Assad regime for decades.(Khazan 2013) It also fears what might happen if Syria's rebels, some of whom, unlike Assad, are hardcore Islamist take charge. The empowerment of Islamists and jihadists might later threaten Israel directly, ending nearly 40 years of quiet on the Israeli-Syrian border.(Herzog 2013) Syria under the Assad regime has been the most stable ally of of Iran in the Middle East. Iran is the greatest strategic challenge to Israel’s national security, especially because of its

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pursuit of nuclear weapons. (Inbar 2013) Therefore weakening Iran should be Israel’s first priority and Israel wants that Iranian influence in the region rolled back. The fall of Assad would be a great blow to Iran. (Inbar 2013) 4.5 Global actors and their interests In general, the interests of other global actors like the United States, European Union countries, Russia, and China in Syria are shaped largely by geopolitical and economic motives. USA The interests of the United States regarding Syria is to cope with their demands; to end Syria's strategic alliance with Iran, to end its armament of Hezbollah, to close Hamas offices in Syria and to re-enter peace negotiations with Israel under Israeli-American terms.1(footnote Pascal) Syria is under pressure to join the World Trade Organization and open its economy to foreign intervention, an action which Syria undertook with caution and still remained rather debt free. On the contrary, U.S. believes that Syria is a factor of stability on the northern border of Israel and there is no alternative to the regime. (Makdessi, 2011:73-74) Such a posture has caused the U.S. to evolve cold feet over intervention in the Syrian Conflict. EU The stand of the European Union on the Syrian conflict is similar to the United States. It issued sanctions against 155 persons, 49 companies and institutions who support the Assad regime. It supported the UN Security Council Resolution 2042, authorizing the deployment of an advance team of 30 unarmed military observers and Resolution 2043, establishing the UN Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS), to monitor the cessation of armed violence; and the work of the UN- Arab League joint envoy. Through its actions of condemning violations of human rights by the regime; economic sanctions and suspension of bilateral cooperation with the Syrian regime, the EU's supported intervention. However, its influence remained low as the conflict has been escalating. (Pitura, 2012: 13-16) China China’s stand for the Assad regime calls for non-intervention by any foreign actors. Referring to the UN Charter that does not allow intervention; with emphasis on national sovereignty and sovereign equality and non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, China opposes any armed intervention against the Assad regime. China sees the Western pursuit of humanitarian intervention as a transition to install pro-western leaders

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and establish western hegemony. Beijing also fears that its national interests are threatened by the creeping ideas of democracy , western intervention in non-democratic states; a mission that would ultimately target China.(Swaine, 2012) China harbors suspicions that 'the West's humanitarian justifications mask neo-imperial ambitions', based on earlier unilateral or joint actions in countries like Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq. (Price, 2010: 151) Russia Russia has been a strong ally of the Assad regime and has both economic and political motives in protecting it from all international pressures. Since 2005 Syria has been increasing Russian arms imports. By 2011, Syria was Russia’s fifth biggest weapons buyer with contracts of 3.5 - 3.8 billion USD. Syrian arms acquisition increased by 58% from the 2002-06 period and the 2007-11 period, with Russia supplying 78% of these in the last five years. In 2009, Russia’s investments in the country reached 19.4 billion USD. (Cinq-Mars, 2012) That’s why Russia has enormous economic interests in Syria and Assad became dearer to the Russian government. The conflict in Syria has also afforded Russia an opportunity to revive its Cold War image as a great Eurasian power. It further boosted this image in humanitarianism by donating funds to the Syrian Red Cross, dispatching tents, blankets and food to the afflicted areas. Supporting the Assad regime has enabled Russia to gain more influence in the Middle East. Russia’s support for Syria appears less to do with Syria but more to do with Russia itself. (Troyanksy, 2012) 4.6 Who is supplying weapons in Syrian Conflict? Arming the Syrian government: Before the beginning of the uprising, the Syrian army had a range of heavy weapons, including tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery and rocket systems, ballistic missiles, fighter jets and helicopter gunships at its disposal. After two years of fighting, government forces are still better armed and organized than the rebels. Russia: Despite Western pressure, Russia has continued to supply the Syrian military with weapons and equipment throughout the conflict. Moscow takes a firm stand that it is only fulfilling pre-existing contracts with the regime and that it is not violating any international sanctions. Earlier this year Russia stated that it would be honouring its previously agreed contract with Damascus for supplying S-300 surface-to-air missile defence systems. Although it is believed that the missiles are not yet delivered to Syria. Russia has reportedly sent advanced Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles, SA-17 surface-to-air

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missiles, and short-range Pantsyr-S missile systems. Iran: Iran has stepped up its military support to the Syrian government. Tehran is believed a key supplier of rockets, anti-tank missiles, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars. However, Iran denies breaking the UN sanctions imposed on its arms exports. Tehran has allegedly been transporting most of the weapons through Iraqi airspace on commercial planes. More recently, overland through Iraq by lorry. Arming the Syrian rebels Opposition rebel groups are believed to have acquired weapons and ammunition through a variety of means, including the black market, battlefield capture, improvised factories, and shipments paid by individuals, groups and foreign governments. Representatives of the main fighting group, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), said that the majority of its weaponry has been purchased on the black market or seized from government facilities. Rebel groups have captured some few military bases including at Atareb, Taftanaz, Jirah and Tiyas. Qatar: Until now, Qatar is widely believed to be the main supplier of weapons to the rebels. By autumn 2012, Qatari aircraft were landing at Esenboga airport, near Ankara, every two days, with supplies for the Syrian rebels. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia is reported to take the lead in financial and military support to the rebels. Report shows arms and equipment were purchased by Saudi Arabia in Croatia and flown to Jordan on Jordanian cargo planes for rebels based in southern Syria. Libya: The North African state has been a key source of weapons for the rebels. Europe: In May 2011, the European Union imposed an arms ban on Syria. Recently several member states - led by the UK and France - lobbied for permission to supply arms to the opposition. On May 28 the European Union agreed to end the arms embargo on the Syrian opposition and to maintain other existing sanctions against the Ruling regime. (BBC 2013 ) US: The US repeatedly said that it is reluctant to supply any arms directly to the rebel groups because it is concerned that weapons might end up in the possession of militant jihadist groups. However, reports reveal that US has been supporting some Arab governments and Turkey to increase their military aid to Syria’s opposition fighters in recent months. (Chivers & Schmitt 2013) Turkey: The Turkish government is a firm supporter of the opposition rebels, but has not

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officially approved the sending of military assistance. However, report shows that it has played a pivotal role in arms shipments to the rebels since late 2012. Jordan: The Yugoslav-made weapons first seen in the hands of Free Syrian Army units in southern Syria in early 2013 are believed to have been smuggled over the border with Jordan. The Jordanian government has denied any role. However, the New York Times found evidence that Royal Jordanian Air Force transport planes and Jordanian commercial aircraft were involved in the airlift of arms from Croatia.(BBC 2013) Iraq: Syria's rebels, who are drawn mostly from the country's majority Sunni community, are reported to have acquired weapons, ammunition and explosives from Sunni tribesmen and militants in neighboring Iraq. Lebanon: Lebanon's Sunni community is reported to have helped supply Syrian rebel fighters with small arms purchased on the black market or shipped from other countries in the region, including Libya. The Syrian town of Qusair, which was recaptured by regime in June 2013, was a transit point for weapons smuggling from north-eastern Lebanon. 5. Part two: Why is the Syrian conflict taking too long to resolve? 5.1 The R2P: the complexity and challenges in Intervention The idea of Military intervention in the Syrian conflict raised a controversial debate. Syria has powerful friends like Russia and China to resupply the army and also veto Security Council measures to deny UN backing.(Brown, 2012) The question also arises whether the military intervention would be good, legitimate or not. The idea of military intervention has been provided by the United Nations Charter, Chapter VII, when the United Nations General Assembly adopted the principle of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in 2005. R2P is rooted in the core principle that a state is sovereign; and the primary responsibility for the protection of its people lies with the state itself. If that state is unwilling or unable to halt or avoid the suffering or harm to its people due to internal war or catastrophe, the principle of non-intervention yields to the international responsibility to protect. The obstacles to the implementation of the R2P in Syria can be explained by the position taken by two UN Security Council members China and Russia, who veto any proposal of military intervention or stiffer measures against Syria. China claims R2P norm should not violate the principles of state sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs, restrained in the UN Charter; must be considered in the

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context of maintaining international peace and security instead of domestic issues; and must not be abused. China sees that the R2P should only be used when conditions like genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity, endanger international peace and stability. The use of the R2P must also respect the aspects of the government and regional organizations, after all other options are exhausted. Thus China does not believe that the crisis in Syria is ripe yet for R2P. (Swaine, 2012) Russia’s strategic interests in Syria and its ties to the Assad regime (Cinq-Mars, 2011) have determined the fate of diplomatic decisions in Syria. Countries like Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa have also been angry about the management of the NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011, mandated by the Security Council ‘to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack’. Their main complaint was the US, Britain and France's decision causing regime change, rejecting ceasefire offers, killing of Gaddafi and his relatives and supporting the rebels (Philps, 2012) 5.2 A common unified opposition is required A legitimate united opposition party is the most important condition I consider necessary to negotiate with the government. But still opposition rebel groups are divided in various interests. It is also complicated to communicate with all the groups fighting in different parts of the country. United States and its allies are working on mobilizing opposition forces. Opening their office in Qatar represents progress and getting legitimacy from international community is one positive aspect of it. Syrian opposition umbrella group named the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, formed in Qatar in November 2012 has gained recognition as the "legitimate representative of the Syrian people" by United States, Libya and the Gulf Cooperation Council and as a "representative of aspirations of Syrian people" by the Arab League. (Xinhua 2013) U.S. gave an additional 123 million USD in "non-lethal" military equipment to the Syrian opposition. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry at a conference in Istanbul said its future support will go through the rebel military high command. John Kerry also urged the UN to take a more active role, especially in efforts to investigate the chemical weapons used in the conflict. The Syrian opposition leader Moaz al-Khatib said in a statement after the meeting that the rebel revolution is for all the Syrian people,” We urge the nations of the world to stand up and be clearer with the aid of the Syrian people”.( Swedish TV 2012) They are too many and they are divided. It is difficult to unite them under one leadership

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with different demands and goals. The video of a rebel eating the heart of a government soldier horrified the world and even the Syrian people opposed to Assad. Some people commented these are the people who want to come into power, what will happen if they come into power? Assad is no angel but he is not brutal like this rebel who eats a raw human heart. (BBC Video 2013) 5.3 Spoilers The Syrian conflict has acquired the character of a proxy war in which international, regional and internal actors are fighting to win the game. Therefore, success for one is automatically a defeat for the other. One bone of contention is the interpretation and enforcement of international norms, with the United States and other Western states backing the Syrian opposition while Russia and China support the Assad regime. Moscow and Beijing resist the application of the principle of international responsibility to protect. In Russian-American relations there are also signs of rivalry over zones of influence echoing the patterns of the Cold War. (Muriel Asseburg and

Heiko Wimmen 2012.) Iran’s regional role that stokes the civil war in Syria: From the perspective of the Gulf States, first and foremost Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the Syria crisis offers a chance to reverse Tehran’s growth in influence since the 2003 Iraq War and strengthen their own positions. Every conflict has some spoiler. The actors in Syrian conflict and the consequences reveal who are those spoilers. Spoilers will destroy any possibility of viable peace process. That's why it would be wise to classify them and minimize their actions. 5.4 Fear of Peace A peaceful settlement of the Syrian conflict would lead to an endpoint where regional and international actors would not benefit equally. Similar thoughts may apply to both Assad regime and opposition rebel groups directly involved in the conflict. That's why fear of peace is a consequence in the conflict. Rebel groups who have been fighting for last three years might wonder what would happen if we sit for the negotiation, we might not get what we have been fighting for. Some of the videos appearing online show rebels eating internal organs of a government military (Video CNN 2013) and another video shows rebels burying alive regime soldiers.(Mail 2013) These videos tell how intractable the conflict is. According to Frerks when conflict is intractable, conflicting groups may not negotiate. For them winning is the only goal, because they are fearful of peace. Peace negotiations may not yield what they originally started fighting for or peace agreement may seem like they lost the fight. Regional hegemonic contest between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey over Syria, small but strategically important country is the region, has begun to unfold with the conflict becoming more intractable. (Assl 2013)

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Since the fall of Egypt’s President Mubarak, Saudi Arabia has decided to reduce their dependency on the US for securing their foreign policy interests by strengthening their own armed forces. It does not like Iran’s play over Assad regime-- that’s why Assad's fall will enable Saudi Arabia to challenge Tehran in Lebanon with greater ease. A strategic ally of Iran, Syria is the vital link between Iran and Lebanese Hizbullah. Assad's fall will therefore be a massive blow to Iran's foreign policy. Iran also gains greater influence in the region and aggravates US and Israel by preserving Assad. Turkey shares a long border with Syria. It is worried about spillover effects along this border. Syrian conflict also may destabilize and embolden Turkey’s Kurdish population. More significant is US departure from Iraq combined with Assad’s fall in Syria could spark a revival of independence discourses amongst the Kurds. Russia, China and Iran’s strong support to the Assad regime and the US and its allies on the other hand support of the opposition rebel groups; make a recipe for no end in sight for this complicated powder keg. 5.5 G8 leaders with no joint declaration

Current G8 summit which was held in Northern Ireland on June 17th-18th where U.S. President Barak Obama, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister of UK David Cameron and other G8 leaders met with the expectation to produce a common and firm declaration about Syrian conflict—but instead ended with no decision. ( Gropp 2013) The US, Britain and France have said that they have proof that regime has been using chemical weapons against the rebels. Therefore, these three states are now considering arming the rebels. Russia has condemned those plans. German Chancellor Angela Merkel emphasized that Germany would not be delivering any weapons to the Syrian rebels. ( Gropp 2013) 5.6 Obama administration’s new move US’s claim of the Assad regime’s limited use of chemical weapons, mass killing of civilians, extensive damage to major urban areas and its concern about spillover of the conflict into neighboring states such as Israel, Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan has the Obama administration now considering the expansion of U.S. civilian and military assistance to Syrians in need and to opposition forces. In the 113th Congress, some members have introduced proposed legislation that would authorize humanitarian aid and a possible U.S. military role in the conflict:

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• “H.R. 1327, the Free Syria Act of 2013” – would authorize the President, under certain conditions and with various reporting and certification requirements, to supply nonlethal and/or lethal support to opposition groups in Syria. The House Foreign Affairs Committee has not yet passed the bill. (US congress 2013) • “S. 960, the Syria Transition Support Act of 2013” would authorize the President, notwithstanding any other provision of law that restricts assistance to Syria, to provide assistance, including defense articles, defense services, and training to vetted opposition forces. This also would grant broad authority to provide humanitarian aid to the Syrian people and authorize $250 million Transition Fund to provide security, transitional justice, democracy building, and governance capacity building support now in preparation for a post-Assad transition. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved S. 960 as amended by a 15-3 vote in May 2013. (US congress 2013) 6. Part three - Recommendations: How a peaceful conflict settlement can be achieved? 6.1 Managing Syrian conflict In any conflict there is page of peace process; conflict management, conflict resolution and conflict transformation/Reconciliation. At this very moment what we need to do in Syria is to manage the conflict. Managing conflict could mean, first of course a ceasefire from the opposition rebel groups and stopping violence from the regime. However, since none of the fighting actors are willing to make a peaceful settlement, I am therefore trying to find some options on how to do a peaceful settlement. Many offer military intervention. Ask why there is a delay or why intervention is not happening. But practically this is actually not an easy and cheap thing to do. Military intervention is a very costly endeavor which has proved already in Afghanistan, in Iraq. It costs much killing and devastation and efforts and yet conflict does not end quickly, which we can see in Afghanistan. Whereas Stanizai sees solving a political problem by military means is a miscalculation that is doomed to fail. (2013) Negotiation between opposition groups and the regime would be the most peaceful settlement. Now there are many rebel groups fighting in many different corners of the country and most have different interests. Bringing them together around one table is no easy task but not impossible either. However, no hopeful sign has been yet found from the regime or from the opposition for any negotiation.

Options

1. Military intervention by International Community

2. Negotiation between two parties

3. Mediation by third-party

4. Supporting Rebels by supplying arms.

5. Smart Sanctions

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Some countries already have been supporting the rebel groups by supplying arms. They hope that if rebel groups grow bigger and stronger, the regime may feel compelled to talk with them. But it is not a good idea to support the groups by supplying arms because use of arms causes more violence and kills more civilians.

Like the negotiation, third-party mediation is also a less costly process in terms of violence and time. In that case who is going to be the neutral third-party? USA, UK, Israel are already supporting rebel groups, Russia, Iran, Lebanon and China supporting the Assad regime. The principle of mediation is that an effective third-party should be neutral and politically unbiased and also powerful. What can smart sanctions do with the Syrian regime when E.U. already imposed some sanctions? On the other hand, Russia, China and Iran are supporting the regime. 6.2 Why United Nations Mediation attempt towards Syrian Conflict failed? According to Michael Greig (2013) and others, the factors that have made the Syrian conflict continue unabated are internal. The conflict has become intractable, making it difficult for third-party intervention - individual states, regional bodies (Arab League) and international bodies (United Nations). The number of parties involved in the Syrian conflict is large, resulting into: communication problems, spoilers of peace processes due to divergent interests, and lack of commitments for peace agreements. The intensity and duration of the violence also closes communication and leads to a yearning for revenge from the opposing sides, thus increasing the cycle of violence. Gaining ground in strategic areas like Damascus increases the rebels negotiating leverage, as the government fights hard to retain control. (2013: 48-56) Croatian Prime Minister, Austrian Vice-Chancellor and Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister “mourned”(UN 2012) at the 67th UN General assembly over the lack of unity in the United Nations Security Council dealing with the conflict in Syria. But about a year later today when I am writing this paper nothing much changed within the attitudes of UN Security Council members, whereas lots of devastation, humanitarian crisis mounted in Syria. The British foreign secretary William Hague criticized the divisions within the UN Security Council that have hindered efforts to resolve the conflict in Syria "The United Nations Security Council has not fulfilled its responsibilities because it is divided. That division continues, the world has failed so far in its responsibilities and continues to do so." (Karmi 2013) On the other hand, Amnesty International reported the failure of the United Nations to take crucial action on Syria shows it is no longer "fit for purpose" and is becoming "redundant as a guardian of global peace." (2012) Syrian human suffering is obviously a crime against humanity, but the Security Council just

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watched for months and months. After one year since the conflict erupted, the UN came up with a frail resolution that allowed a handful of UN observers into Syria. (Spillius 2012) Russia used its veto against any sanction towards Assad regime and to refer Syria's leaders to the International Criminal Court. Five members of UN Security Council who hold power of veto--Russia, China, Britain, France and US-- have employed this over the years too freely to serve their political and economical interests. Emerging powers like India, Brazil and South Africa were too often complicit in countenancing human rights abuses through their silence at the UN. The UN and its European allies have proposed three Security Council resolutions, pressuring Assad to stop the violence, but all three have been vetoed by Russia and China.( Washington post 2013) Hans’s concern is that UN can do nothing much because of too many external and internal actors being involved in the conflict. One solution he finds to the Syrian conflict is to influence neighboring countries, in order not to support any actors in Syria. UN should call for a conference, invite all neighboring countries and ask them not to support any actors in Syrian conflict.1 6.3 United Nations Actions in Syria as mediator

• May 15th 2013 : The U.N. General Assembly - Resolution A/67/L.63 - 107 'yes', 12 'no' and 59 abstentions condemning Assad - “indiscriminate” shelling and bombing of civilians and the need for a political transition through “inclusive” democratic elections.

• February 2012: The General Assembly Resolution A/RES/66/253, acknowledged the deteriorating human rights situation in Syria.

• September 2012: The General Assembly also passed Resolution A/RES/66/253 B demanding the Syrian government to implement the Plan of Action drawn by the Arab League to end violence, release arbitrarily detained persons, withdrawal of the army, and allowing peaceful demonstrations.

• The Security Council passed Resolution 2042 (April 2012), supporting Kofi Annan's six-point plan of collaboration with the UN envoy, a UN ceasefire, humanitarian aid, freedom for detainees, freedom for journalists, and for peaceful demonstrations.

• The UN Security Council also passed “Resolution 2043” establishing the United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) of 300 unarmed personnel to

1 Professor Hans-Joachim Heintze, International Law at the Buchom University, Germany was interviewed in

Stadtschlaining, Austria.

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monitor the conflict for 90 days to implement the Syria Regional Response Plan of 23 March 2012. The UN mission suspended its operations in June 2012 due to the increase of mass violence, while Kofi Annan resigned in August 2012, declaring that he 'could not want peace more than the protagonists, more than the Security Council or the international community.' (The National, 2012) Lakhdar Brahimi replaced Annan in October; Brahimi tried to negotiate a temporary ceasefire, the attempt failed. (Cohen, 2013)

6.4 A peaceful settlement approach offered by the International Peace Initiative for Syria IPIS consist of peace activists and intellectuals and offers a POLITICAL DIALOGUE between Syrian political forces under conditions which eventually could lead to a cease-fire and a political transition. They claim that the coordinator of the Syrian National Coalition declared he is ready to start a dialogue even with the Assad regime under the condition that it would release the prisoners, whereupon President Assad himself said he was ready for a “dialogue without preconditions.”(2013) As an international law professor and lawmaker of Germany parliament Norman Paech outlines "An immediate cease fire and political negotiations are the task of any negotiation." (IPIS 2013) Whereas Peace Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mairead Maguire sees dialogue is the way to do it "We call for an all inclusive unconditional dialogue, in order to find a nonviolent and just solution to the Syrian conflict and an end to all violence and suffering of the Syrian people." 6.5 Declaring Syria as a threat for peace According to Hans the easiest way to mange Syrian conflict is first apply article 39 of the UN charter, declare Syria as a threat to International Peace, than it is up to the Security Council to take decisions in accordance with the obligations.

Article 39 of the UN charter : The Security Council shall determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression and shall make recommendations, or decide what measures shall be taken in accordance with Articles 41 and 42, to maintain or restore international peace and security.

Article 41 of the UN charter: The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the Members of the United Nations to apply such measures. These may include complete or partial interruption

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of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations.

Article 42 the UN charter: Should the Security Council consider that measures provided for in Article 41 would be inadequate or have proved to be inadequate, it may take such action by air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security. Such action may include demonstrations, blockade, and other operations by air, sea, or land forces of Members of the United Nations.

However, Hans believes military interventions are not always a solution “you can see UN intervened in Somalia in 1993 but it was really not a solution, because at the end there was a need for state building, state building can only be done by the local actors, international community only can support the local actors. So to me it seems international community can not yet identify those local actors, who can rebuild Syria.” Political(?) argues that Syria should be considered a threat to world peace and security “It's not only Syria itself; it’s the risk of spill over into Lebanon and Iraq; Syria is a detonator for many conflicts in the region, and I would say a global threat to peace and security.” (Raddatz, Coolidge & Jordyn 2013) Zakaria believes that Syrian conflict already erupted in neighboring countries. She argues that there are some conflicts going in Lebanon, Egypt is not stable, Turkey already has protests; these are the consequence of the Syrian conflict.2 7. In Conclusion: No conclusion The Cost of Syrian conflict As to my hypothesis, various interests of Regional and International Actors, fear of peace, no unified and illegitimate opposition platform delaying peaceful settlement of the Syrian Conflict; my intentions are not to justify it but try to make it debatable. Therefore addressing my research questions I do not make any conclusion. As the Syrian conflict becomes more intractable, we still can see some possible solutions as I mentioned in part three.

2 Professor Zeena Zakaria of University of Massachusetts Boston was interviewed in Stadtchlaing in July 2013.

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Regional and International actors are playing political games to further their own interests. The conflict requires the great powers of the region, and of the world, to unite to press all sides for peace (Oxfam, 2013). United Nations can do nothing as the Security Council cannot agree on one common mandate. Apart from the civilian deaths, deteriorating conditions and human suffering, UN is also concerned about UNESCO heritage in Syria which is now in grave danger. The city of Aleppo has already sustained extensive damage since the revolt erupted. On the list are the old town of Damascus, the first Umayyad Mosque built in 700's, the ruins of John the Baptist and Saladin's tomb, Bozrah old neighborhoods, the amphitheater and the Roman ruins in the oasis of Palmyra, Crusader castles Crac des Chevalier, Qal'at Salah El-Din and the ancient villages of northern Syria. (Swedish TV 2013) After a decade of 'war on terror' in Afghanistan, Iraq, I think U.S. Administration is under pressure to get a mandate from US people and Congress before sending any military to Syria. US foreign policy also affected U.S. Economy. Any military intervention in Syrian would need a huge financial commitment which U.S. may not get easily. That's why; Obama administration’s shouting against Syrian regime seems to me far from reality. U.N. could do nothing without a joint mandate from Security Council. China and Russia continue to veto doing anything against Assad regime. Important regional actors like Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are playing different roles with different interests which helps make the Syrian conflict even more complex to handle. Hollywood star Angelina Jolie visited Syrian refugee camp in Jordan --World Refugee, 20 Jun 2013 addressed the issues “The crisis here in Jordan and across the region is the most acute humanitarian crisis in the world today; 1.6 million people fled Syria, more than half of them are children, every 14 seconds someone crosses Syrian border and becomes refugee” (Telegraph Video 2013) To date more than 100000 people dead ( Reuters 2013) , as of June 14, 2013 an estimated more than 1.63 million refugees had fled Syria amid United Nations projections the total may reach 3.5 million by year’s end, as many as 4.25 million Syrians may be internally displaced. (U.S. Congress 2013) After more than two years of conflict, there are few signs of peace in the country, disagreement between world leaders produces no agreement on who should attend peace conference or when it should be held.(Video- Reuters 2013) World leaders are acting like Syrian conflict needs more time to ripen. Thus Frerks’s suspicion is, if some of the external actors in Syria intend regime change and want to install a shadow government than one can also think of this metaphor-- that those external actors will wait until Syria becomes weaker politically and economically when it will become easier for them to impose it. Politics can be a nasty game sometimes.

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و يدي ثورة مطول ف ل ة ل سوري .2011 .درعا 2011-3 -18 الhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nICh9dKhnr4&feature=youtube_gdata_player.