responding to covid- 19 in india - BY DR. SAMEER SHARMA

RESPONDINGTO COVID-19IN INDIA

A COLLECTION OF PUBLISHED NEWSPAPER ARTICLES

BY DR. SAMEER SHARMA

What effective public governance should looklike in India 's COVID-19 response

Dr. Sharma draws on over 30 years of his experience inthe Indian Civi l Service to outl ine how India canovercome a pandemic and its waves. Views are personal .

TABLE OF CONTENTS

WORKING FROM HOME IN GOVERNMENT

A POST-14 APRIL FRAMEWORK

HOW TO KICKSTART ECONOMICACTIVITY IN LOCKDOWN TIMES

POST COVID-19 ECONOMIC L IFT

03

05

06

08

REVVING UP THE ECONOMY AT L ITTLECOST

REBOOTING INDIAN CITIES

COMING OUT OF LOCKDOWN

09

11

13

PROVIDING RENTAL HOUSING FORMIGRANTS14

LEADERSHIP IN COVID TIMES

COMING (AND STAYING) OF A CLEANENVIRONMENT

A NEW VERSION OF ATMANIRBHARTA

MAINTAINING COMPOSURE WHILEDEALING WITH COVID-19

16

18

20

22

COVID-19 IS A WICKED PROBLEM

THE 4+2 WAY OF TACKLING COVID-19

CREATING THE LOCAL SOFTWARE FORCOVID-CONTROL

LEADERSHIP BY ADMINISTRATORSDURING COVID TIMES

24

26

28

31 BUILDING A BETTER INDIAN CITY

HOW COVID-19 HAD UNLEASHED MICRO-GOVERNANCE

IMPORTANCE OF ROLE-BASED TACTICS

33

35

37

WHAT CAN PREVIOUS LOCKDOWNSTRATEGIES TELL US ABOUT ENDING THERISE OF COVID-19?

01

MAKING TEAMS PERFORM IN APANDEMIC

29

TABLE OF CONTENTS

WHAT THE PANDEMIC TAUGHT USABOUT LONG-TERM HEALTHCARE43

BECOMING ‘VOCAL FOR LOCAL’ ININDIAN URBAN PLANNING45

WHY SOME PEOPLE ARE MORESUSCEPTIBLE TO COVID-1947

59

REDUCING BIASES IN DECISIONS DURINGA PANDEMIC39

GLOSSARY OF PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHEDARTICLES

ROLLING OUT THE CORONAVIRUSVACCINATION PROGRAMME41

RESHAPING SCHOOL EDUCATION IN THEPOST-PANDEMIC AGE49

LESSONS FROM NATURE TO TACKLECOVID-19 ’S SECOND COMING51

WHY DOES TIME PASS SO SLOWLY IN APANDEMIC?53

PANDEMIC WAVE 2 .0 : PLAN OF ACTION55

POST-PANDEMIC: MANAGING LARGEGATHERINGS OF PEOPLE57

1. What Can Previous LockdownStrategies Tell us About Ending the Rise

of COVID-19?W R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Do past policy interventions for diseases that swept the globeoffer any insights to respond to the coronavirus pandemiccurrently raging across the world?

The closest historical example to our current situation, one that iscommonly cited, is the 1918 flu pandemic. In the United States,cities used one of the following measures, or a mix of them, tocontain the disease: notifying the flu as an epidemic; closingschools, churches, theatres, dance halls and public lodging places;banning public gatherings; and isolating sick persons.

In some cities, these non-pharmaceutical policy interventions(NPPIs) were put in place in the first days of an epidemic spread,while in other cases they were introduced late or not at all. Thus,there was great variance in the methods and timing ofimplementation measures in the US, and this gives clues to policymakers on the way ahead.

Let us start with a concrete example of the differential responsesof the cities of Philadelphia and St. Louis. The first case of diseasespread among citizens in Philadelphia was reported on September17, 1918. The city’s officials did not take the outbreak seriously andcontinued to allow large gatherings, including a city-wide parade

on September 28, 1918. School closures, bans on public meetingsand other social distancing measures were not implemented upuntil October 3, 1918. By this time, the flu had already spread andwas beyond the control of public health authorities.

St. Louis, on the other hand, responded with alacrity. The firstsigns of the disease were reported on October 5, 1918. Theauthorities implemented a wide series of interventions to promotesocial distancing from 7 October 1918.The following graph showsthe difference in death rates in the two cities. The difference inresponse times between the two cities was nearly 14 days and theepidemic was three to five times more severe in Philadelphia. Thedeath rate at peak time was 250/lakh and 50/lakh in Philadelphiaand St. Louis, respectively. The cumulative deaths (September 8 –December 28, 1918) were 719/lakh for Philadelphia and 347/lakhfor St. Louis. The death rate in St. Louis climbed after the NPPIswere withdrawn in mid-November.

The response to the 1918 flu pandemic offers some lessons. First,aggressive social distancing, imposed early (i.e. when few peoplehave died), leads to less deaths at the peak of the pandemic.Secondly, the number of NPPIs matter – cities where three offewer NPPIs were implemented had an average per week death

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1. What Can Previous LockdownStrategies Tell us About Ending the Rise

of COVID-19?W R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Continue the nationwide voluntary lockdown for at least for 14days. During these 14 days, state/district/city-level plans forgradual draw-down should be formulated and implementedhereafter.During the lockdown, design measures to continue work,which will also be useful for gradual withdrawal of NPPIs.Therefore, the present pandemic will be seen as a challenge totransmute the way we do things. For this, some principle maybe established. The first principle could be to take services topeople instead of people coming to the government and someexamples include education (digital teaching), health andimplementation of various beneficiary schemes.The government can also start to deliver food to doorstepsinstead of people coming to shops (e.g. ration shops).For government offices, the principle should be to reduce theircarbon footprint. This includes developing protocols fororganising all meetings via tele- or video-conference mode. Allfile work and communication to be done digitally. Anotherprinciple could be trust people first and verify later. For this,there could be identify regulations, rules and practices wherepermissions could be automatic, within set timelines and fieldverification could be done later.

rate of 146/lakh as compared to cities implementing four or moreNPPIs (65/lakh). Three, the interventions have to be withdrawn ina planned way otherwise the death rate will climb again.

Peak death rates were lower when large public gatherings werebanned early, and schools, churches and theatres were closed.Early onset of the disease coupled with rapid NPPIs usually leadsto an early response and reduces the peak death rate. Finally, theepidemic comes in waves, and cities with lower peak deaths in thefirst wave are more susceptible in the subsequent waves. Thus, aplanned draw-down is required.

The Indian government’s social distancing idea enforced throughthe voluntary nationwide ‘janata curfew’ shows a deep insight intotackling the pandemic. It is the single-most appropriate responsein a diverse nation with huge differences in health systems, wheremalls, cinema halls and streets are social areas and peopletraveling in buses (also trucks) or by rail and air are most likely tospread COVID-19 to other parts of the country.

Based on the learning from earlier experience, the Indian policyresponse should contain the following elements:

1.

2.

3.

4.

For the production sectors, announce an economic package,which protects incomes and employment.

Image Source: Hatchett, Mecher and Lipsitch

These are only a few examples and several similar principles couldbe thought of and developed into policy instruments. All in all, acomplete lockdown for some time with simultaneous measuresthat are transformative is likely to lead to an Indian way of dealingwith the COVID-19 pandemic and bring about a permanent changein the way we do things in India and the world.

This article first appeared on The Wire Science on 24/03/2020.

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The epidemic comes inwaves, and cities with lowerpeak deaths in the first waveare more susceptible in thesubsequent waves. Thus, a

planned draw-down isrequired.

https://science.thewire.in/health/covid-19-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy/

https://science.thewire.in/health/covid-19-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy/

2. Working fromHome in Government

W R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Simply, there are two basic activities in government offices -meetings and paper disposal (e.g. files, policy-making).Additionally, a training institution may also engage in classroomlearning and research. This article contains the outline ofmeasures taken by the Indian Institute of Corporate Affairs (IICA)to ensure that the institute works normally during the COVID 19lockdown.

Acting on the dictum - ‘if you fail to plan, you are planning to fail’,the IICA started step-wise planning early - in the first week ofMarch 2020. The goal was to ensure that all normal time activitiescontinue without interruption. Below, is given the way planningand implementation was done.

Prior to lockdown - Pre-COVID lockdown planning consisted ofthree steps. First, at the end of the second week of March 2020body temperature testing and hand washing at front gate wasintroduced, all door handles/gymnasium equipment was cleanedwith disinfectant, hand sanitizer was placed at several commonplaces in the campus, wearing face masks was encouraged, facultyand researchers were advised to work from cabins and useBlackboard (Bb) for conducting all meetings and classroomlearning/testing as well as depend on e-office only for disposal ofall papers/files.

All home workers were expected to wear smart casual clothesand be seated on a separate desk in their house and beavailable during office hours.Every day started with a meeting at 9:30 a.m. by all Heads withtheir teams where they would identify the tasks for the day. At5:30 p.m. the teams would re-assemble to review the progresson tasks set in the morning. These documents were uploadedon Bb.The periodical meetings were standardized and included in thedaily timetable.All meetings were held on Bb and recorded, thus dispensingwith the need for minutes. At the same time online chatspermitted members to talk among themselves during themeetings.The attendance was monitored by the Head (IT) and sharedwith the HR Department; additionally, the HR Departmentprepared a daily log of activities and outputs by all humanresources.File movement from the initiating level was done on e-officefrom home.There is a facility of organizing online classes on Bb. As theIICA was already using the Bb learning management system,the faculty easily shifted to using Bb for conducing onlineclasses, giving assignments and organizing other classactivities.On the other hand The IICA manages the portal forregistration and testing of independent directors. Theindependent directors take the tests from home and AItechnology is used for remote proctoring. This facility wasavailable to conduct admission tests for other courses, such asthe one-year long Graduate Insolvency Programme (GIP).All essential workers (e.g. cooks, electricians, plumbers) weregiven boarding and lodging in the campus and entry and exit ofall outsiders stopped.

Additionally, no outside vehicles were allowed to enter thecampus (e.g. Uber), all packets coming in were delivered at themain gate were cleaned and sanitized before being sent inside,newspaper supply was stopped and a visitor management systemwas implemented. Moreover, lifts were stopped except for the useby the old and differently-abled. Second, contingency plans wereprepared to operate housekeeping, maintenance, catering servicesby providing boarding and lodging for minimum of workers in thecampus. Also, the faculty prepared detailed plans for organizing allclasses, giving assignments and holding meetings in case of a totallockdown.

During the lockdown - The work-from-home plan was rolled outfrom 23 March 2020. The key features were –

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The response toCOVID-19 need not beviewed as a zero-sum

game where a biologicalenemy has to be defeated

at the cost of economicwell being of humans.

P A G E 3

2. Working fromHome in Government


Grocery and water supplies were deposited at the main gateand disinfected and kept in the sun for 2-3 hours before beingsent in to the kitchen. The waste disposal contractor wasallowed to enter through a different entrance, not interactwith anybody and sanitize the waste collection point aftercollecting the garbage.

Teams of faculty and researchers (including cross-functional)belonging to a particular School/Centre were given increasedautonomy to figure out things. These were conceived as self-managing entrepreneurial academic units with their ownbusiness plans.The Heads prepared annual strategic plans in February/Marchwith activity/ budget and timeline and their roles were alsoclearly defined in the strategic plans - the aim was tomaximize focus and minimize distractions. Workflows were digitalized and meetings video-recorded. During the coronavirus outbreak, IICA’s Schools/Centres arelearning to work in formation and learnt to make requiredtrade-offs in a way so as to get over the School/Centre silosand move to creating knowledge across disciplines.

The COVID 19 lockdown was accepted as a challenge and somenew ideas were tried out. Some of these are given below -

The key learning for other institutions as well as other boundedareas (e.g. RWAs, gated communities) during lockdown are -anticipating and starting early, monitoring closely, using somerelevant digital tools and tapping opportunities for transformationby making trade-offs, not possible in normal times.

The common belief is that in a lockdown, economic activity is anoxymoron. Now, it seems that the lockdown will be extended inlarge parts of India, therefore, we have to revisit the commonbelief that there is an inverse relationship between lockdown andeconomic activity.

The origins lie in two perspectives and bridging them seems asimpossibility. First, there is the viewpoint originating fromeconomics - we should aim to bring about the greatest total good,even if we have to live with disease (and possibly deaths) along theway. This group suggests that the extent and nature of thelockdown should strike a balance with economic loss. In contrast,the epidemiological viewpoint believes that we have duties toprotect the lives of each and every one from sickness and death,no matter what economic loss we suffer along the way.

Based on these perspectives we tend to cast the relationshipbetween lockdown and economic activity in either/or terms. f

However, some small explorations show that there are ways ofconverting zero-sum outcomes into dual positive ones.

All in all, the response to COVID 19 need not be viewed as a zero-sum game where a biological enemy, COVID, has to be defeated atthe cost of economic well being of humans.

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The COVID-19 lockdownwas accepted as a

challenge (at the IndianInstitute of Corporate

Affairs, IICA) and somenew ideas were tried out.

P A G E 4

3. A Post-14 April FrameworkW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Post-14 April requires a framework within which all StateGovernments can plug in. The framework will have scope foradaptation by the States and, importantly local areas. Moving awayfrom a cookie cutter model will leave room for adaption to localconditions and take into account varying levels of existingconditions in local areas. Thus, the framework will follow a ‘loose-fit, light touch’ framework in which states and local areas will havethe opportunity to adapt their responses, in real-time, to theCOVID 19. Let us first look at some broad principles based on thelearning contained in the responses to earlier pandemics,including COVID 19.

Principle 1 (Identifying the local unit and creating leadership):The local units should permit real participation of local residentsin the management of COVID 19. The conventional units -districts/taluqs/wards - are too large and the best would be anArea containing 5000 people (an area, see 73rd and 74thConstitutional Amendment). The Area will be different for ruraland urban areas. For each Area there will be one action team withone leader and a single chain of command. For example, thevolunteers in Andhra Pradesh could be members the action team.

Principle 2 (Entrustment of functions): All COVID 19 relatedfunctions, which can be best done at the Area level will beentrusted to it. Some examples to be given to the Areas are, (1)decide on locking down of spatial areas based on the morbidityand mortality patterns, (2) ensure that all people in the local unit

wear masks, (3) decide on people to be quarantined in houses or inhospitals, (4) decide on local sanitary measures, (5) doorstepdistribution of food, medicines and daily provisions, particularly tothe poor and the vulnerable, (6) identify establishments (e.g.schools, stadia, community halls) that can be converted intotemporary hospitals by the State Governments and assist in suchconversions, (7) identify private doctors to look after thesehospitals, and (8) distribute pensions, direct cash transfer, etc. tothe local residents.

Principle 3 (States to support local units): State Governments(including district/sub-division/taluq/mandal officers) assistancewill be required by the Areas for the following tasks, (1) providingmasks, ventilators and test kits, In case doctors are unavailable,then deploy doctors (e.g. private, AYUSH) from elsewhere, (2)provisioning for all medial and health supplies and technicalassistance, (3) mobilizing and provide digital solutions for trackingpatients and provide access to telemedicine, (4) organizingadvocacy on a range of issues that are connected to prevention ofCOVID-19 and its treatment so that the people can make sense ofthe huge amounts of information being received by them dailyfrom several sources (e.g. social media), (5) providing direct help ifthe local unit is overwhelmed by a large number of cases, and (6)converting atleast one building into a large COVID 19 hospital (e.g.stadium) with the help of NDRF/armed police.

Principle 4 (Monitor, feedback, modify response): The Areas willestablish a system of real-time monitoring using the ubiquitousmobile phone to decide on places to impose individual socialdistances and spatial cordon sanitaire of Areas. At the same time,the higher levels will do deeper analysis and provide inputs toAreas. One example, is the research done by New York Institute ofTechnology. The study found (with some statistical caveats) thefollowing associations - the average mortality rate was 0.78 deathsper million people for 55 nations having a national BCG policy. Themortality figure was 16.39 for five nations (Italy, the US,Netherlands, Lebanon and Belgium) not having such a policy.Here, the higher levels can advise Areas to craft their responsesbased on the levels of BCG vaccination. Such hit-and-trialinitiatives will enable Areas to respond in real-time to ever-changing situations.

Principle 5 (public cooperation and participation): Public has tobe involved in the spatial cordon sanitaire approach. A basicelement of public cooperation is sharing of information. Peoplethreatened with lockdown do not cooperate with authorities.People take flight, which spreads the epidemic, and the authoritiesdo not get to know or get to know quite late. Eliciting peoples’cooperation is what public health teaches us since the plagueyears - focus on case findings of individuals, followed by tracingand isolation. This is what the Area will achieve in India.

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Moving away from acookie cutter model willleave room for adaptionto local conditions and

take into account varyinglevels of existing

conditions in local areas.

P A G E 5

4. How to Kickstart Economic Activity inLockdown TimesW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

In case the lockdown is extended, then one crucial challenge willbe to restart economic activity. While there are not manyprecedent cases to rely upon, some findings from small-scaleexamples, such as the operations of the Indian Institute ofCorporate Affairs (IICA) during March/April 2020, can be upscaledto the community level. Based on the learning, some ways tocontinue the lockdown as well as resume economic pursuits aregiven below.

Spatial cordon sanitaire approach: In this approach a sanitarycordoned area will be identified in three steps, (1) division ofdistricts/cities into areas, and (2) classifying these areas into red(hot), orange (medium) and green (free) zones depending on thestart, spread and control of COVID-19 in the area, (3) change inclassification at periodic intervals depending on the nature andspread of COVID-19. Once the zones are demarcated, differentinterventions will be required for each zone. For example, the IICAinterventions showed that the following actions will be required inthe red zone, (1) entry/exit of all visitors has to be regulated. Incase some people have to enter to stay in the zone, then theirmovement history for the past 15 days needs to be ascertained.Moreover, they should record their temperatures every four hoursand send to local officers (e.g. Asha workers, patwaris, wardofficers) on WhatsApp, (2) movement of people will be minimized,

To start the economic activity connected to harvest of rabicrop: This will be permitted in villages categorized as orangeand green category. E-commerce platforms will be allowed toprocure farm produce from anywhere in India and sell directlyto consumers. At the same time, special efforts will be made toenable villages in the red category to transit to orange/greencategories so that economic activity resumes seamlessly.Small and medium industry located in industrial areas (e.g.estates, business parks) will be allowed to start operations andthe estate, which will be treated as a cordon sanitaire andcompletely insulated from their surroundings. Therefore,workers will have to reside in the estate or factory premises.Similarly, large industry and essential manufacturing (e.g.oxygen, pharmaceuticals) will again be allowed to form acordon sanitaire and permitted to operate independently.Furthermore, inspection of all factories and shops will besuspended for six months, and all returns will be sent digitallyand based on self-declarations. This will also lead to reductionin supervisory levels in governments.All hospitals and clinics, not completely involved in COVID-19prevention and curative operations, should start tele-medicineservices for symptomatic treatment of people based on theubiquitous mobile phone. This should be part of AyushmanBharat. At the same time, delivery of medicines by e-commerce agencies will also be allowed.

no outside vehicles will be allowed to enter the zone and all peoplewill have to wear masks, (3) daily spraying (e.g. bleaching powder)of all public places will be done, (4) door delivery of essentials willbe done - best is to use existing e-commerce companies - and allmaterial entering the red zone will be cleaned and sanitized at theentry point to the zone, (5) telemedicine services will beintroduced for all households, and (6) people working inhouseholds will reside within the zone in order to reduce the dailymovement of people into the zone. The households in the zonewill provide food and other essentials to the workers, in additionto their wages.

Similar or a variation of interventions will be implemented in theorange and green zones. Depending on the local context, theinterventions will be modified and adapted. For example, kiranashops will be allowed to open in orange and green zones andrestaurants and hotels will be permitted to open in green zonesfor limited periods during the day.

Economic activity: The lockdown has led to near cessation ofeconomic activity, making it imperative to restart economicactivity. This will again depend on the type of zone and someexamples are given below –

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P A G E 6

In case the lockdown isextended, a crucialchallenge will be to

restart economic activity.Actions based on small-

scale examples need to beemployed to jumpstarteconomic activity at

various levels.

4. How to Kickstart Economic Activity inLockdown TimesW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

For restoring supply chains to delivering household items, e-taxi platforms will be integrated with producers (e.g. kiranastores, restaurants).All educational institutions should start to use and familiarizewith learning management systems (mobile and computerenabled) for the providing full range of pedagogy - classroominstruction (including activity) and material, assignments,online testing, tutorials and proctored admission tests. Thepresent reliance on WhatsApp and computer cameras shouldbe replaced with learning management systems (LMS). Thiswill ensure that there is no delay in scheduled academicactivities.Financial services and outsourcing services willrestart/continue and areas where they are located declared ascordon sanitaire zones. Employees will operate in shifts, forinstance 15 days at a time. For instance, ONGC in offshoreareas has such shifts.

Government business: Simply, there are two basic activities ingovernment offices - meetings and paper disposal (e.g. files,policy-making). All governments have developed versions of e-office and video-conferencing and these should be fully usedwithout any face-to-face interactions. Careful protocols will haveto be developed for work-from-home (WFH).

Some of the elements of relevant work-from-home protocolsrolled-out in IICA are, (1) all meetings are recorded on theplatform, Blackboard, thus dispensing the need for preparingmeeting minutes, (2) every day in the morning, tasks are identifiedby the Heads for their teams and completion is again reviewed atthe of the day, (3) meetings for the week are decided in advanceand standardized agendas prepared, (4) all the above (e.g.attendance in meetings and work turned out by each humanresource) are monitored daily by the human resource department.

Actions based on these small-scale examples need to be employedto jumpstart the economic activity at various levels. What isrequired, in the words of Dr. Michael Ryan, is to move quickly, nothesitate to always be right before moving, not be afraid to makemistakes or worry about its consequence.

Because the greatest error will be not to move.


Actions based on thesesmall-scale examples

need to be employed tojumpstart the economic

activity at various levels.

P A G E 7

5. Post COVID-19 Economic LiftW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

The effects of the lockdown on the economy have beentremendous: Nearly all supply chains have been disrupted,productive activity has mostly stopped, and circuits of money flowhave been severely disrupted. A combination of these factors hasnot only caused consumption goods and services from the marketto collapse, but also dented entrepreneurship. Therefore, thechallenge at hand is to restart economic activities and sufficientlyaddress the above effects.

Given the uniqueness of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,conventional economic theories are of little use and we have tothink of something novel, possibly even audacious. One way is toimagine that time stopped on 24 March 2020 and the clock startsticking again, 120 days after the lockdown is done away with. Theeffects of such a freeze are elucidated below.

There will be a freeze on all loan repayments or interestaccumulation on any type of loan. This will revive the circuits inwhich money will flow for production and consumption in theeconomy. The freeze on economic regulations/rules impliestemporarily suspension of external supervision by inspectors andthis will unleash entrepreneurship. For example, factories will bepermitted to restart and follow all regulations/rules on their ownwithout oversight of the departments (e.g. labour, factories,electricity). Similarly, construction activity will be revived basedon existing building rules and zoning regulations, withoutrequiring any building permissions from town planningdepartments. Connected to this is the suspension of circle rates,which will allow land markets to operate freely. The basic idea isthat Indian people can be trusted to self-regulate themselves.What happens to GST during the freeze period? At this time, GSTis expected to be an obstacle on consumption. In order to use GSTto induce consumption, GST will be be levied only on finishedproducts and not on raw materials and intermediates. Coupled

with a suspension of GST on services, this will rekindle productionin the country and breathe new life into consumption.

Furthermore, all development programmes will be collapsed intoone form of cash transfer. This will maximize the outcomesassociated with such programmes as well as empower people tochoose what they want to consume and immediately create ademand for goods and services in rural and urban areas. Whileconverting existing programmes, the following principle will beadhered to - only those programs will be continued that are ableto demonstrate that they are doing a better job, than the poorcould do for themselves through cash transfers. In turn, cashtransfers are of three varieties - total (direct cash transfer),restricted (conditional cash transfer, vouchers) and contrived (e.g.food for work, employment programmes). Direct cash transfer willbe the default option. Conditional transfer will substitute forprograms in which specific needs have to be met and larger sumshave to be distributed to meet these needs. Finally, if particularcommunity works are required, then cash for work will be thepreferred choice. For example, in order to continue with socialdistancing, one way could be to deliver food grains through e-commerce, rather than rely on p.d.s. shops.

Finally, there is an increasing possibility of shifting manufacturingaway from China, mainly to the country of origin. India canleverage on this opportunity by earmarking large areas (e.g. 10,000hectares) around all minor ports and arrange all factors ofproduction (land, physical space, natural resources, labour, moneyand equipment, and entrepreneurship) as available to them intheir existing locations in China. This will boost manufacturing inIndia.

The notion of freeze holds much promise to become a game-changer in the long run. Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostorm’s work inthe developing nations showed that in the unique culture of India,there are two types of rules in operation. One is the “rules in form”(e.g. policies, programmes) created at the top, and second is theactual “rules in use”, crafted by local people to get their work doneand move on with life. During the freeze, governments will allowthe rules in use to operate to deliver the best outcomes. It is notas if the rules in use will be unbridled - they will work within aframework set by the existing rules in form (e.g. existing laws,rules, regulations).

All in all, the thrust of this article is that the compulsion to freezeeconomic activity provides an opportunity to have a fresh look athow and what we have been doing so far following conventionalways. Examples have been given with the purpose to demonstrateto policy-makers that the cessation in economic activity caused bythe COVID-19 pandemic provides a once-in-a-lifetimeopportunity to reboot traditional ways of doing things.


The cessation in economicactivity caused by the

pandemic provides a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to

reboot traditional ways ofdoing things.

P A G E 8

6. Revving Up the Economy at Little CostW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Going into May, the challenge at hand is to rev-up the Indianeconomy. The standard prescriptions are based on the assumptionthat we require some sort of a financial stimulus to restart theeconomy. Admittedly, money is required for the economy toresume, however, this article will explore possibilities of restoringthe Indian economy without inordinately focusing on some sort ofa financial boost.

There are three ways to go about stimulating the economy, thefirst being to address the disruption in supply chains. There arethree types of supply (used interchangeably with value) chains inIndia - completely formal, formal/informal, and only informal. Thecompletely formal value chain was completely GST amenable,while the other two were partly compliant. GST exemption up to acertain turnover and payment of GST at a fixed rate of turnover(composition scheme) are two examples of recognition of thesehybrid value chains.

The challenge thrown up by COVID-19 lockdown is how to revivethese value chains. There is no precedence to fall back on to guidethis process and we have to fall back on other metaphors. Supposethe economy is the human body (both are complex): Imagine if wewere given a wish that we can stop all our functions in our bodyand then revive them at will. The coming to life will be onlypossible if all organs start at the same time. We cannot have thebrain starting today and the liver tomorrow, with the kidneyscoming online day-after-tomorrow and blood flow the week after.

We call this notion completeness. Applied to the economy, thiswould mean that all components of the economy should start atthe same time. The unit of completeness could vary - village/city,region, district, state, etc. This could also be done sector-wise ifall the backward and forward linkages are identified and availablein a given geography.

The idea of completeness goes beyond the conventional approachof economists where the focus is on stimulating the supply- ordemand-side and the estimate funds required for doing this.Undoubtedly these traditional methods are valid. However, thereis another organic, internal way of reviving supply-chains that isworth exploring. The levying of GST on finished goods andservices only, will induce restoration of millions of supply chains.Simply, we would be exempting GST on all raw materials andintermediates at least for, say, six months by when the economywill, hopefully, gain near full steam. This approach does involvesome loss of revenue in the immediate future, but the assumptionis that the increase in economic activity will compensate for theloss in the longer run. There will also be another benefit. The GSTin practice has unintentionally become a sort of consumption tax,thereby, retarding consumption. By limiting GST to finished goodsand service, consumption will get a fillip.

Furthermore, this has to be complemented by re-establishingcircuits of money flow (includes all forms - physical, digital) in theeconomy. Let us assume that time stopped on the day of the

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The notion of completenesshas lessons for attracting

business planning to relocatefrom China. In order to do

so, we should carve outenclaves and provide them

the complete environment asis prevailing in their present

locations in China.

6. Revving Up the Economy at Little CostW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

lockdown and resumes only when economy activity is restarted.Thus, all dues (e.g. loan repayments, tax payments) will becomputed from D-Day, the day when economy reopens or anyfuture date. During this period there will be a hold on economicregulations/rules (e.g. suspension of insolvency code for a year).This will mean a temporary suspension of external supervision byinspectors. For example, construction activity will be revivedbased on existing building rules and zoning regulations, withoutrequiring any building permissions from town planningdepartments. Once construction restarts, there will be generationof large-scale employment in India.

This will also rekindle entrepreneurship in the several ways. Forinstance, entrepreneurs will be able to devote all their attention tostaring business, establishing supply chains, locating new marketopportunities, and reducing cost of production. During theprocess of rebuilding their business, they will be able to look outfor the best and most innovative business practices.

The notion of completeness has lessons for attracting businessplanning to relocate from China. In order to do so, we shouldcarve out enclaves and provide them the complete environment asis prevailing in their present locations in China. Such a businessenvironment will include land, physical space, natural resources,labour, money and equipment, minimal regulations andopportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship. Preferably,these enclaves should be established near ports (particularlyminor ports) as in China.

Outside of a financial stimulus that is traditionally sought as asolution to accelerate an economy, the possibilities outlined herecan be employed by policy-makers to rev up the economy anddrive long-term benefits.

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Outside of a financial

stimulus that istraditionally sought as asolution to accelerate aneconomy, the possibilities

outlined here can beemployed by policy-makers to rev up the

economy and drive long-term benefits.

7. Rebooting Indian CitiesW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

The origins of Indian cities can be traced back to the Indus Valleycivilization. During the middle ages, Indian cities developedthrough the years by a process of accretion of settlements.Accretion happened as a response to invasions, physicalexpression of a new political regimes or idealogies, and regionaland political interests. Thus, an Indian city consisted of citieswithin cities (we call these localities today). During the British rule,‘planned’ areas came up, such as civil lines, cantonments, militarylines and railway colonies, plus shopping areas called the sadrbazaar (main market). After independence, State Housing Boardsand Urban Development Authorities added new housing areas tocities, and post-1991, market led growth further shaped Indiancities (e.g. Gurugram, Hyderabad). Thus, by and large, four types ofurban forms are found in cities in present-day India.

The COVID-19 pandemic lockdown has led to a differentexperience of urban life in cities. In many ways, the lockdown hasvaluable lessons that can be taken into consideration to rebootIndian cities upon re-opening. Let’s look at four measures that canbe undertaken.

First, localities can be retrofitted for walking, not only forautomobiles. To accomplish this, homes should be located withina five-minute walk to schools and kirana stores. Obstacles such asfast highway approaches and access ramps, should be reduced innumber as well. Further, several areas have centers and these

should be renovated with cafes and interesting shops and windowdisplays to promote pedestrian traffic.

Second, traffic-calming measures should be enforced, such aslow speed limits, traffic bumps, and the preservation of on-street parking. All these serve to protect pedestrians and inducewalking by local residents.

Third, streetscape should be promoted. This can be done by, (1)building houses close to the lot line so that people can easilyinteract with people walking, (2) moving away from convention ofbuilding narrower streets, thus creating a slower traffic patternand more neighbourly interaction across the street, and (3)visually de-emphasizing parking meaning and placing behind,instead of in front of, buildings and houses.

Fourth and last, areas should be made self-sufficient in wastemanagement, using recycled water and electricity supply. Suchtweaking of localities is possible and will require demolishing oldstructures, followed by redevelopment. This will also includecreating new layouts - France followed this method during theeighteenth century and the U.S. during the early parts of the 20thCentury. However, this method is no longer the first method ofchoice in urban planning. Another way to carry this out is torecycle (retrofit) localities without large-scale demolition. For this,let us look at what Patrick Geddes explored during 1915-19 for 18

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The COVID-19 pandemic

lockdown has led to adifferent experience of

urban life in cities.

7. Rebooting Indian CitiesW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Indian cities (e.g. Tanjore, Madurai, Balrampur, Lucknow andIndore). Geddes understood the importance of local context inIndia and was against the policy of ‘sweeping clearances’. Hewould first conduct a diagnostic survey followed by ‘constructiveand conservative surgery’. The diagnostic survey starts with anassessment of the nature of growth of the city. The city seemschaotic to the modern eye trained to a mechanical order,however, there is an underlying order of life in its development.The method of conservative surgery is different from the typicaldevelopment of new grids of forty feet streets through congestedlocalities, in common practice in India at that time. Conservativesurgery shows that new streets may not be really required asexisting lanes can be substantially improved by rearranging theartifacts and activities on the streets.

Post-independence, India has followed traditional tools, such aspermissible property uses, and the control of developmentintensity through FSI, dwellings per acre, height limits,setbacks, etc. to regulate the built environment. If we had takeninspiration from Geddes we would have paid more attention tobuildings in localities, their relationship with neighbouringbuildings, streets in the front and open spaces in theneighbourhood, rather than separating residential use fromothers, such as commerical and industrial.

The COVID-19 lockdown provides an opportunity in which urbanforms in Indian cities can be rebooted. Taking the suggestedretrofitting, a small unit is selected. Generally, this should be alocality as the problems of localities are different for localities. Forexample, the retrofiting plan of Chandini Chowk will be very

different from, say, Greater Kailash in Delhi. Furthermore, we willhave to reduce the size of roads (called Diet Roads) to make themmore pedestrian-friendly, particularly for women, children, elderlyand the differently-abled. Open spaces will also have to developedas parks or as playgrounds. Streets will have to identified wheremotor vehicles will be disallowed or restricted to some timeduring the day only. Similarly for parking, spots will have to beidentified and appropriate charges will be determined.

When it comes to recycling, there must be a plan to recycle waterusing eco-friendly technology (e.g. Phytorid plants by CSIR Lab,Nagpur); establish solar panels on top of all houses and not fit foruse spaces; organize small facilities for local separation of solidwaste, its recycling and reuse; and collect and reuse as much aspossible rain water. Finally, there must be a conscious plan toplant and protect trees. All these measures are well-known andrequire no elaboration.

As we prepare to re-open cities, we should take advantage of theunique once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reaccess and plan forIndian cities. It requires a new approach, one that focuses on thevisual aspects of localities. Urban interventions should bedesigned to accommodate patterns of land use, not the other wayaround.

We have to get under the skin of the city by drilling down to ascale that is more human. This requires bottom-up planning andCOVID-19 lockdown has provided us a triggering moment to startafresh.


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Geddes understood the importance of localcontext in India and was against the policyof ‘sweeping clearances’. He recommended

a diagnostic survey followed by‘constructive and conservative surgery’.

8. Coming Out of the LockdownW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

The new challenge today is to learn to live with COVID-19. Whatwill the “new normal” look like? How can principles of urbanplanning and epidemiology be combined to shape the “newnormal”? By combing the idea of zoning in urban planning and thepractice containment in epidemiology, it is possible to formulate aset of operations to create the “new normal”. Zoning rules wereoriginally developed to address the increasing problems ofcongestion, lack of sunlight, incompatible uses, encroachment andloss of open space. On one hand, zoning earmarks different partsof the city for different uses in which the number, types andfeatures of buildings are restricted, prohibited, or permitted.

On the other hand, epidemiology uses the idea of makingcompartments for disease control. This is based on the SEIRmodel. The SEIR model divides the population into fourcompartments - S, for those who are susceptible to COVID-19,likely a significant chunk of the population; E, are people who havebeen exposed, but may not actually be infectious yet; I refers topeople who are infectious, meaning they can pass on the infectionto someone else; and R is the set of people who have eitherrecovered from COVID-19 or have died, and thus can no longerspread the disease (as people can in the I list). The following set ofoperations to come out of the lockdown are possible by combiningthe spatial zones of urban planning with the classification ofgroups of people based on the SEIR model.

First, each district would be divided into zones with about 5000residents. Second, each zone would be labeled as red, orange orgreen depending on its current status regarding the spread ofCOVID-19 based on the SEIR model. For example, the S&Rcompartments are labeled green, E compartment orange, and Icompartment red. As the disease levels are increasing/decreasing,these zones will be dynamic - with red changing to orange andorange to green. In some rare instances, a green zone may alsorevert back to red/orange. Life would be quite normal withingreen zones as far as activities within the zone are concerned. Inred zones, the lockdown situation would prevail in red zones andinclude restrictions on opening of shops and staying withinhouses.

Third, progressively contiguous green zones would be joinedtogether to form larger green zones and over a period of time,entire districts and states would gradually become completelygreen. For example, towns and districts with the virus undercontrol and not having any new infections for several consecutivedays will be moved to green coding. Before moving entire largeareas to green, the ICMR would conduct random testing andcertify the town or district as COVID-19 infection free. There isthe possibility of testing and zoning to be imperfect, therefore,infection in some green zones would return and these zoneswould cease to be green. In such cases, the green labeling of thetown or district/sub-division would be lost, and would go back tothe earlier status. Admittedly, it is impossible to pause transportconnections for a long time due to the need for key workers totravel and some people are expected to ignore rules after such along lockdown. This leads to the fourth action point: the transportnetwork would be opened up in all zones sharing economic ties orzones having large internal transportation needs. Mostimportantly, all commuters would be required to wear masks andmaintain social distance.

Fifth, some economic activities would be allowed in all zones in acumulative manner. In urban planning, cumulative land use meansthat if the “most intense” use is allowed, other less intense usesare automatically permitted. For example, in an industrial zonehouse, construction would be allowed. In contrast, factories wouldnot be allowed to operate in a residential zone. In green/orangezones this would mean that once an economic activity is enabledin a zone, then all activities forming part of its value chain wouldbe automatically permitted.

Sixth, a key activity would be household level surveillance andzonal level monitoring to obtain information and respond in real-time to emerging issues. For example, in red/orange zones,biweekly door-to-door survey would be organized to detectpeople showing COVID-19 symptoms. Zonal level monitoringwould include analysis of information coming from thehouseholds/community and responding based on the analysis.Some other monitoring activities would include changing zonesfrom red to orange to green and opening up transport links withinzones and to other zones. Finally, all these operations would becompletely organized by regular line departments, such asrevenue and panchayati raj/municipal. The police would beavailable to provide additional support when required.

The larger message is that undoubtedly normalcy will be restored,but it is difficult to visualize what the “new normal” will be. Theexit strategy outlined in the preceding paragraphs will enablepeople to slowly get used to the new normal as well as shape it byactively participating in the process of doing away with thecurrent lockdown.


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9. Providing Rental Housing for MigrantsW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Since Independence, housing policies have largely promoted self-ownership for targetted households. Recently, the Governmenthas announced plans to promote rental housing in urban areas.This is a paradigm shift from the past policy of giving land/subsidies to households or builders/developers to constructhousing for ownership. The challenge is to design a rental-housing scheme that is attractive for the disadvantaged,particularly the migrant families.

The primary objective of the scheme would be to provide rentalhousing to a large number of households within a short span oftime. Additionally, make available diverse rental housing options -ranging from houses for families to dormitories for single workersto shared accommodation, with flexible rental conditions (e.g.duration and initial deposit).

In India there is a gradual move to shift its development andwelfare policies towards direct benefit transfer. Direct benefitcould be transferred in different ways - as cash, vouchers or foodgrains. Vouchers have been used in other countries to promoterental housing where part of the rent is covered by the voucher.This encourages households to rent houses in localities of theirchoice. For example, the Housing Voucher Programme in the U.S.assists more than 20 lakh families and is the largest Federal low-income housing assistance programme. It is one of the fewprogrammes that has grown over the last 20 years, testifying to its

popularity. In the programme, families who are given vouchers usethem to help pay the cost of renting housing in the open market.A similar scheme would be designed for Indian conditions. Therental scheme would provide financial assistance to the migrantfamilies up to a certain income level to enable them to afford adecent shelter to rent. A Rental Housing Voucher (RHV) would begiven to the tenants. These vouchers would be distributed totenants by urban local bodies and, in turn, be redeemed by thehouse owners. The migrant family will only pay the differencebetween the actual rent charged by the landowner and theamount subsidized under the model. As this is the first time such apolicy is being implemented, the Government will have to workout the scheme details, such as the rent ceiling for financialassistance depending on class/size and prevailing rent in cities.There are several other benefits of the rental voucher scheme.

First, migrants originate from several parts of India andtypically do not own lands in cities where they work, therefore,find it difficult to obtain loans. Additionally, they lack a steadyincome, thus, are unable to convince banks that they will be ableto regularly repay the EMI, often extending up to 10-15 years. Therental scheme would be free from these constraints.

Second, while making home location decisions, households maketrade-offs between the place of work, home and school location.The freedom to make these tradeoffs is compromised in the


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The primary objective ofthe rental-housingscheme would be to

provide rental housing toa large number of

households within ashortspan of time.

9. Providing Rental Housing for MigrantsW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

existing housing programmes as land is scarce and houses areconstructed wherever free/cheap land is available (e.g. outskirtsof city). In renting, on the other hand, individual households wouldnot be compelled to move to such pre-decided houses, but havethe freedom to rent a house keeping in view their familypreferences. For example, one household may decide to rent ahouse near a school even if the rent is higher and involves a longercommute to work for the parents. Another household may preferto stay in a locality with better amenities, but far away fromschools. Rental vouchers, by covering a part of the rent, wouldempower the family to make such choices.

Third, there is some evidence to show that providing rentalhousing may be cheaper for the government, than subsidizingownership. A back-of-envelope calculation shows that for 100cities, a rental scheme covering poor households is likely to costaround Rs. 2,713 cr.

Fourth, vouchers would reduce the financial burden of renting alivable shelter by the poor, migrant families, and enable them toinvest their savings in better economic opportunities.Importantly, vouchers would give them the option to move out ofareas where poverty is spatially concentrated and indirectly helpin inhibiting the formation of slums in cities.

Fifth, the rental scheme would empower migrants to plan theirlife. In the beginning they would use the rental vouchers to stay in

better areas in the city. With time, their incomes would increaseand they would plan to construct a house, possibly in such areaswith better amenities. The children would get used to betteramenities and would push the parents to stay in localities withbetter amenities, thus, contributing to greater inter-generationalmobility.

In the prevailing paradigm, government policy has been directedat construction of houses to encourage people to own houses.Whatever rental market has developed in India is small-scale andprivately directed and presently about a quarter to a third ofhouseholds in Indian cities live in rented housing.

Thus, there is a huge potential for encouraging rental housing bygiving vouchers to the poor and the disadvantaged, particularlythe migrants.

A larger benefit of the rental scheme will be that migrants will feel‘at-home’ in the city.


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A larger benefit of therental scheme will be that

migrants will feel ‘at-home’ in the city.

10. Leadership in COVID timesW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

What type of leadership is expected from bureaucrats (e.g.administrators, health workers, police) while dealing with theCOVID crises? In popular perception it is the well-knownintelligence quotient (IQ). However, in practice IQ is mainly usefulas a “threshold capability”, that is, an entry-level requirement inthe civil service. There are several instances of highly intelligent,skilled administrators not performing upto expectations whenassigned leadership positions during crises. On the other hand,some administrators with solid, not extraordinary, intellectualabilities and other skills meet expectations most of the time. Whatare these other skills required during crises like the COVID 19?

One is Tactical Quotient (TQ), meaning the skill to develop a setof operations to achieve a target linked to a problem in a crisis.Tactical quotient is a key requirement for front-line practitioners.These skills are rooted in experience and are primarily gained bydoing a thing again and again, failing, succeeding and getting a feelfor a problem, learning when to go by the book and when to gobeyond. Competent practitioners build up a repertory of workingrules of thumb, or “heuristics”, that, combined with bookknowledge, make them best suited to manage crises. There issome evidence that this requires about 10 years of fieldexperience.

The next layer is Strategic Quotient (SQ). If, TQ is the small-scaleor worm view of things, SQ is the larger or eagle view of problems.

Ability to understand ones’ emotions, strengths, weaknesses,needs and drives; recognize how feelings affect ourselves andothers and our job performance (self-awareness);Ability to control or redirect disruptive impulses and moodsand the propensity to suspend judgment and to think beforeacting (self-regulation);Passion to work for reasons that go beyond money and status,propensity to pursue goals with energy and persistence(motivation);Proficiency in managing relationships and building networksand ability to find common ground and build rapport(empathy); and

In SQ, a crucial attribute of success in crisis management isstrategic decisiveness. This is to make early decisions and movequickly to enlist all sides in executing the decisions. Some teammembers may not be pleased with decisions, but would besatisfied if they see some movement towards crisis managementgoals.

The core skill required during crises is Emotional Quotient (EQ).There are studies to show that EQ is twice as important ascompared to other skills. Effective crisis management requiresleaders with a high degree of emotional intelligence.

What is EQ? Simply, EQ consists of the following components -


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Competent practitionersbuild up a repertory of

working rules of thumb, or“heuristics”, that, combinedwith book knowledge, makethem best suited to manage

crises.

10. Leadership in COVID timesW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Ability to understand the emotional makeup of other peopleand skill in treating people in accordance to their emotionalreactions (social skill).

Take the responsibilities of leadership very seriously (e.g. makestrategies, not engage in ad-hocism).Primary duty is to uplift the peoples’ morale (e.g. be withthem). Deploy the residents to “their proper place” meaning that thenation should continue to function (e.g. strike as balancebetween containment and economic activity).If, the people and economic activities are destroyed, thebureaucrats will also be affected (e.g. salary cuts).Maintain civility at all times and under all circumstances.

In crises situations, perhaps the most important skill isempathy. In order to make frontline practitioners understand thepractice of empathy, the guidance given to Aztec kings to lookafter their subjects during epidemics is most useful. The Aztecempire was located in present day Mexico and flourished upto the15th Century. The Aztec empire witnessed plagues, and later tosmall pox brought by the Spaniards during the 1500s. When facedwith a plague it was the duty of the king to respond in thefollowing ways (Nahuatl texts translated by Professor DavidBowles at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley) -

“Do not rush your words, do not interrupt or confuse people. Insteadfind, grasp, arrive at the truth. Make no one weep. Cause no sadness.Injure no one. Do not show rage or frighten folks. Do not create ascandal or speak with vanity. Do not ridicule. For vain words andmockery are no longer your office. Never, of your own will, makeyourself less, diminished. Bring no scorn upon the nation, itsleadership, the government. Retract your teeth and claws. Gladdenyour people. Unite them, humor them, please them. Make yournation happy. Help each find their proper place. That way you’ll beesteemed, renowned.”

Disentangling the above paragraph leads to the following pointers:

This requires bureaucrats to move away from over-reliance onpositional power to learning to, in the words of the psychologistAlfred Adler, “see with the eyes of another, listen with the ears ofanother and feel with the heart of another”.

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Tactical quotient is a keyrequirement for front-linepractitioners. These skillsare rooted in experience

and are primarilygained by doing a thing

again and again, failing,succeeding, getting a feelfor a problem, learningwhen to go by the bookand when to go beyond.

11. Coming (and Staying) of a CleanEnvironment


The COVID-19 pandemic has had unintended effects - cleanGanga and clean air in Delhi within 30 days! This ‘miracle’ was theresult of closure of all sources of pollution at the same time. Is itpossible to mimic these effects, without cessation of all economicactivity?

Typically, problems in policy-making are described as a mismatchbetween an existing situation and the state as it should be.Resolving the problem starts with a search for the causes for themismatch followed by interventions to bridge the gap between theexisting and desired situation.

Ordinarily, interventions directly act on a few causes to controlthem. Interventions also generate after-effects. Let us considerthe unintended effects when road capacity is increased to reduceair pollution. The reasoning is that a wider road (includes flyover)leads to smooth flow of traffic, which, in turn leads to less exhaustgas from automobiles and, thus, reduced air pollution. What isoverlooked is the change in driving behavior of car owners due toenhanced road capacity - wider roads induce people to startmaking certain trips that they would otherwise avoid during peaktraffic times, or using alternative routes to get to work. Less trafficon roads also attracts people, who were earlier using publictransport, to start using their personal vehicles. In the medium-

term, the improved road attracts builders to locate commercialactivity on it and the increased construction activity adds to airpollution in the short-term. In the long-term, the new commercialactivity leads to greater vehicular traffic.

We notice from the above example that the enhancement of roadcapacity and its counter-effects occur at different levels. Roadwidening is implemented at the local level (e.g. junctionimprovements) or at the city-level (e.g. flyovers); however, theinduced effects (e.g. which route to take while going to work ormarket), is an individual or a household decision.

Thus, interventions in built environments at the local/city levelhave effects on individuals and households. The fact thatinterventions and their side effects occur at multiple levels (e.g.individual, household, local, city/district, state, national) is oftenignored in conventional policy-making. The miracle of thelockdown was due to the simultaneous closure of pollutingsources at multiple levels.

If pollution control has to be successful, then policies have toaddress causal factors operating at multiple levels. One way ofdoing this is to craft policies that are a blend of bottom-up andtop-down initiatives. This is best accomplished by relying on theidea of subsidiarity. The idea of subsidiarity is founded on aprocess of ‘reverse delegation’. Reverse delegation starts withassigning all projects/programmes to the lowest level(individual/household or locality/ward). Only those, which thelowest level is unable to satisfactorily perform are “delegated” tothe next level (e.g. village, city).

This process of upward delegation is repeated at the next leveland so on. Thus, subsidiarity is a step-wise process of graduallymoving up the levels. This approach is a mix of top-down andbottom-up approaches because policy is made at the top, butpriority for implementing projects/ programmes is given to thelower levels.

It would be interesting to see an example of a project beingconceived and implemented at the lower levels. If pollution causedby vehicles has to be controlled and the starting point is thelocality, then the first step would be to divide the local streets intotwo types of zones, traffic and social. In traffic zones, vehicles willenjoy precedence. In social zones, pedestrian movements,children’s play and social activities will come before vehiclemovement.

In the city of Christiansfeld, Denmark social zones were createdby removing traffic signals and road markings. Pedestrians, buses,

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If pollution control has to

be successful, thenpolicies have to addresscausal factors operatingat multiple levels. Oneway of doing this is to

craft policies that are ablend of bottom-up and

top-down initiatives.

11. Coming (and Staying) of a CleanEnvironment


cars and trucks used eye contact to negotiate the junctions (muchlike Indian towns). One of the results was reduction in traffic jams.The reduced precedence given to motor vehicles in social zoneswould reduce pollution as well be aligned to the local context.

The learning from COVID-19 is that it is possible to tackleintractable issues connected to the environment. Ideally, this isachieved by closing all pollution generating activities. In reality,however, such a cessation of all activities at a single point of timeis not possible. As the causative factors are distributed overseveral geographical levels, the idea of subsidiarity offers atantalizing possibility to design and implement multi-levelinterventions starting from the smallest area (locality to ward tovillage/city, and so on).

In this way, it is possible to mimic the positive effects of COVID-19on the environment.

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Typically, problems inpolicy-making are

described as a mismatchbetween an existing

situation and the state asit should be. Resolving the

problem starts with asearch for the causes forthe mismatch followed by

interventions to bridgethe gap between theexisting and desired

situation.

12. A New Version of AtmanirbhartaW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Prior to colonization India was an economic powerhouse. At thebeginning of the 18th Century, India’s share of the world GDP wasabout one-fourth. The main contributors to India’s wealth weremanufactured textiles and agricultural products (e.g. spices) forniche markets. Producing highly innovative and quality products,Indian manufacturers dominated world trade in manufactured andagricultural products.

By the middle of the 18th Century, India had become a Britishcolony and soon thereafter lost its dominant economic position inthe world. While India was being subordinated to the colonialenterprise, the west was starting to harvest the fruits of theindustrial revolution.

One key gain from the industrial revolution was increasing returnsto scale - if input was increased by 3 times then the output wouldincrease by, say, 3.75 times. For this, western nations broughttogether private and public vested interests into increasing returnindustries. William Dalrymple’s book, The Anarchy, captures indetail the line up of private interests (East India Company) withthe vested interests of the British Parliament/Government.Furthermore, research by the Norwegian economist Erik Reinerthas shown that the colonial powers protected domestic industriesfrom competition by relying on patents and protection (forindustrialization, rather than for revenue).

Initially, such policies were followed by all the colonial powers(e.g. Britain, Spain, Portugal) and later by the United States. After

World War II, Japan and Germany pursued similar policies. Duringthe 1970s, the South East Asian nations and, most recently, Chinahave relied on a slew of such measures. However, India followed adifferent path of self-reliance after independence. The crucialdifference was that private and vested public interests were seenas separate and not aligned to achieve the singular goal ofincreasing returns to scale.

COVID-19 has provided an opportunity to take a complete relookat the existing idea of self-reliance and draw up a new frameworkof Atmanirbhata. The new framework would consist of two broadinterventions. The first intervention would encourage large-scalemanufacturing in order to take full advantage of economies ofscale. Simple and minimalistic policies would be designed to marrythe private interests with a vested public interest, such asemployment generation.

Undoubtedly, implementing such a radical change throughout thecountry would face many barriers, therefore, initially the policycould be implemented in earmarked industrial parks, say, of size10,000 hectares, located around minor ports.

The medium, small and micro industries (MSME) could achieveeconomies of scale in two ways: one by scaling up productionusing state-of-art technology. Another way could be tomanufacture high value, single products for sale in niche markets(including handicrafts, handlooms and khadi). This is what theGerman small and medium-sized companies, called mittelstand,

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The essence of the new

version of Atmanirbhatawould be to encourage

manufacturing that leadsto economies of scale byaligning private interests

with vested publicinterests.

12. A New Version of AtmanirbhartaW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

do. What are the lessons for Indian policy-makers from theGerman experience?

First, the mittelstand companies realize economies of scale byserving the large global market. They also form joint inter-company activities at the regional, national and internationallevels in order to gain a market position equal to what otherwiseonly large companies could achieve. These networks take the formof a legally independent center and covers a variety of areas, suchas purchasing, marketing, logistics, IT solutions, financingservices, consulting or training, and so on. In Germany, around250,000 companies from around 45 different branches of trade,craft trades and service industry are grouped together in around400 groups.

Second, the mittelstand companies adhere high quality standardsand constantly innovate based on the customer requirements.Continuous innovation leads to development of proprietyproducts, giving the mittelstand companies an edge in anextremely competitive market. Moreover, as the innovations havea strong customer orientation, the companies develop long lastingrelationships with their buyers. This reduces the pressure on thecompanies to engage in aggressive pricing or offer discounts. Thenet effect is enhanced and stable profits.

Third, the mittelstand companies are largely located in smallertowns of Germany. By encouraging MSMEs to locate in themittelstand way, the long cherished goal of Governments to locateindustries in rural/urban areas would also be achieved.

In short, India missed out on the industrial revolution and sinceIndependence has been making efforts to catch up. The COVID-19pandemic has provided an opportunity to reboot industrialdevelopment policies and rapidly draw level with other nations.The essence of the new version of Atmanirbhata would be toencourage manufacturing that leads to economies of scale byaligning private interests with vested public interests.

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India missed out on the

industrial revolution andsince Independence hasbeen making efforts to

catch up. The COVID-19pandemic has providedan opportunity to rebootindustrial development

policies and rapidlydraw level with other

nations.

13. Maintaining Composure while Dealingwith COVID-19


There is an apocryphal story about the cyclone that struck KrishnaDistrict, Andhra Pradesh in 1977 and led to a huge loss of lives. Asthe relief workers were unable to lift the putrefying bodies, AVSReddy (special officer) issued liquor to them so that they couldcremate the dead bodies. Calamities produce such sort of disarrayin the minds of frontline workers. What this example reveals isthere is a need to reduce chaos in the mind or, using an analogyfrom thermodynamics, increase psychic negentropy (negativeentropy).

In 1943, Nobel Laureate Erwin Schrödinger gave a lecture atTrinity College Dublin entitled what is life; a year later “What isLife” was published as a book. In this book, Schrödinger answersthe question - “How would we express the marvelous faculty of aliving organism, by which it delays the decay into thermodynamicalequilibrium (death)?”

His answer is that by means of the process of metabolism, a livingorganism “... feeds upon negative entropy, attracting ... a stream ofnegative entropy upon itself, to compensate the entropy increase itproduces by living and thus to maintain itself on a stationary andfairly low entropy level.”

In other words, it is possible to boost the psychic negentropyentropy by engaging with one’s surroundings in a manner thatincreases the order in the mind.

The noted psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihaly in his bookFinding Flow suggests some principles of devoting attention totasks in a way that calms the mind as well as increaseseffectiveness. The modus operandi consists of: setting clear goals,getting immediate feedback on actions and fully using one’s skillswhile overcoming challenges. If the challenge is too high, one getsfrustrated, then worried and finally, anxious. If the challenge is toolow, the result is apathy. Disorder in the psyche is reduced whenhigh challenges are evenly matched with high skills. In such a casethere is complete clarity on what should be done and how, andthere is no place for distracting thoughts or irrelevant feelings. Letus apply this to COVID-control operations.

First, clear goals have to be set. In the post-lockdown scenario,goals have changed. During lockdown the goal of COVID-controlwas mainly to enforce stay-at-home orders. After its withdrawal,the primary goal is implementation of a public health model oftesting, tracking, isolating and quarantining.

Second, testing was important earlier too, however, now it hasacquired even more salience because it has to be stepped-up inthe face of an increasing number of people testing positive. Third,test results have to be followed-up through micro-level actions.For this micro-level data on relevant indicators is required.Otherwise as Gov. Andrew Cuomo forewarns “- when you justreopen with no regard for metrics or data -- it's bad for public

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Disorder in the psyche is

reduced when highchallenges are evenly

matched with high skills.

13. Maintaining Composure while Dealingwith COVID-19


identify people with co-morbidities in micro-areas, test them, if the test result is negative continue to get a daily feedback ontheir health status (e.g. body temperature, cough),if the test result is positive, then take action for home isolationor institutional quarantine, do contact tracing in order to locate and test all the peoplewho came in contact with the infected individual, and test again once symptoms subside.

health and for the economy, and states that reopened in a rush arenow seeing a boomerang”.

Let us consider the case of people with co-morbidities (e.g. highblood pressure, diabetes and tuberculosis). They require specialattention in order to avoid contracting COVID-19. In case they getthe infection, then, they require urgent curative care.

In such cases, the micro-level actions are -

1.2.3.

4.

5.

6.

Next, use locally available skills and resources to carry out grassroot activities. The first step is to identify vulnerable people. Thisrequires a rapid house-to-house survey. One excellent resourceavailable is the pulse polio team. These teams could be quickly bemobilized and deployed for the survey.

As the survey progresses, testing can be done the next day (e.g.use mobile vans to collect samples). Based on the test results andthe profile of the individual (e.g. age, family support) and theseverity of symptoms, a decision could be made for home isolationor sending to a care-centre.

Finally, the ASHA workers or any other micro-level resourcewould be used to trace all the people who came in contact withthe infected individual and arrange for their testing. Based on theresults of contact tracing, specific parts of buildings or areaswould be sealed for limited periods.

Setting clear and consistent goals, obtaining immediate feedbackon actions and using one’s skills fully to overcome the challengesthrown up by COVID-19 enables one to allocate completeattention on tasks as well as drive them. As a result, harmony isestablished between the will, mind and emotions. This is amanifestation of increase in psychic negentropy.

A restful psyche goes hand-in-hand with better performance inCOVID-control operations. In the long run, the coherent selfbecomes the unique personal-reality (personality) of theindividual.

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Setting clear and consistent goals, obtaining

immediate feedback on actions and using one’sskills fully to overcome the challenges thrown upby COVID-19 enables one to allocate complete

attention on tasks as well as drive them.

14. COVID-19 is a Wicked ProblemW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

COVID-19 is a wicked problem - a term coined by Horst Rittel andMelvin Webber in their classic article Dilemmas in a GeneralTheory of Planning. Simply put, wicked problems have severalcauses, are tough to define and do not have one right answer.Issues connected to the environment, poverty reduction andCOVID-control are examples of wicked problems. Some of thereasons that make COVID-19 a wicked problem are describedbelow.

Definition and action are linked: One’s definition of COVID-19dictates the actions to tackle it. Enforcing stay-at-home orders isthe primary action if the aim is to reduce the number of cases(flatten the curve). This option is exercised if a vaccine/cure isexpected soon. The well-known public health model of testing,tracking, isolating and quarantining is relied on if the pandemic isexpected to be around for a longer time. A mix of the two is alsoused if the pandemic is ill-defined and there are a large number ofunknowns.

Wicked problems have no stopping rule: In arithmetic, one stopswhen one reaches a solution to an equation (e.g. 2+2=4). InCOVID-19, one does not know when to stop testing in differentareas, how long to enforce lockdowns and with what intensity,number of beds to be made ready, and so on. In the absence ofstopping rules, field workers stop or pause when they run out oftime, money, or patience, finally saying “That's good enough,’ or“This is the best I can do within the limitations”.

Solutions are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad: Conventionally,the structural formula of a chemical compound is either correct orfalse. COVID-control operations are assessed on the binary, goodor bad, not true or false. Some nations followed the strategy ofachieving “herd immunity” and did not quickly ramp up testing. Arecent study in Spain has showed that only about 5% of theaffected population had developed antibodies and there was largechance of collateral damage to other parts of the body due toinfection. In hindsight, this strategy would be judged as “bad” (notfalse).

There is no immediate/ultimate test of a solution: Solutions towicked problems generate waves of consequences, which mayappear in the long run. One example is the effect of pandemics onthe political economy. The 14th Century plague killed a large partof the workforce. This led to higher wages for surviving peasants.In the long run, the plague was one of the major factorsresponsible for the coming apart of serfdom and the feudalsystem. Similarly, the effects of COVID-19 on societal affairs willbe hard to know right away.

Every solution to a wicked problem is a “one-shot operation”,because there is no opportunity of trial-and-error, everyattempt counts substantially: In physics, experiments can berepeated again and again in laboratories without any negativeeffects on discipline of physics or on society. With wickedproblems, every intervention matters. Suppose one is unsure

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Simply put, wicked

problems have severalcauses, are tough to

define and do not haveone right answer.

14. COVID-19 is a Wicked ProblemW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

about the efficacy of putting on masks. During this trail-and-errorperiod, some people would contract COVID-19 and infect others.During the experimental period, the disease would have spreadirreversibly and tracking the source of infections would becomeundoable.

Every wicked problem is essentially unique: Pandemics havebeen around as long as human beings. Some of the recent mostwell known are - the Spanish flu (1918), Asian influenza (1957), andHong Kong flu (1968). Even though they have some commonalities,each of them is “essentially unique”. In other words, despiteseveral similarities between COVID-19 and the earlier varieties ofinfluenza, one cannot be sure that some features of COVID-19 donot override its commonalities as compared to influenzas dealtwith in the past.

The practitioner has no right to be wrong: The purpose ofCOVID-19 interventions is not to find the truth, but to save thelives of people. As the actions of people involved in COVID-controloperations touch the lives of people, they cannot afford to gowrong. For example, during the initial stages of outbreak ofCOVID-19, ventilators were seen as a cure-all for patients. Later,an Italian doctor, Luciano Gattinoni, found that COVID-19 patientseven with low blood-oxygen levels were not having difficulty inbreathing. Moreover, the mortality rate of patients on ventilatorsupport was more than 80%. Thus, excessive reliance ofventilators in the early stages of the outbreak was unnecessary.

Societal problems are wicked problems, including COVID-19.Wicked problems are messy and complex and neutral, andabsolute objective solutions are unavailable. In fact, wickedproblem are resolved (not solved) based on a hard-to-find politicaljudgement.


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Wicked problems are

messy and complex andneutral, and absoluteobjective solutions are

unavailable.

15. The 4+2 Way of Tackling COVID-19W R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Governments have to prepare for a long haul, if a vaccine/medicine for COVID-19 is not made available soon. In order tosustain COVID-control operations over longer time spans, oneway is to tie them together in a coherent framework. In their pieceWhat Really Works, Professor of Administration Nitin Nohria andothers have developed the 4+2 rule, in which it is possible toanalyze interventions (including COVID-19) within four primarycategories - strategy, execution, culture and structure - and twosupplementing ones (any two of talent, innovation, leadership andpartnerships). Below, some key COVID-control operations havebeen placed within the four primary categories.

StrategyStrong empirical evidence is emerging that if self-distancing,handwashing and mask use are followed COVID transmission canbe completely stopped. Thus, the strategy would consist ofidentifying areas (places) in which these three measures wouldbe completely implemented for time spans ranging from four totwelve weeks. The strategy would also contain: large-scaletesting, daily real-time monitoring of morbidity and mortalitypatterns in districts/local units, procurement of materials andmeasures to prevent reinfection in areas where COVID has beencompletely stopped.

StructureThere would be a two-tier structure within each district. The first

(1) testing and follow-up on results of tests as provided in thestrategy,(2) providing masks and test kits; in cases where doctors areunavailable, deploying doctors (e.g. private, AYUSH) fromelsewhere,(3) provisioning for all medial and health supplies and technicalassistance,(4) mobilizing and providing digital solutions for trackingpatients and providing access to telemedicine,(5) organizing public health communication on the three keyissues (hand washing, social distancing and wearing masks) in

level would be the district or the municipality. The second levelwould be the sub-local unit. The conventional units – sub-divisions/taluqs/wards - are too large and the best would be anArea containing 5000 people. One action team with a leader and asingle chain of command would be formed for each Area. As theArea is located close to the people, it would promote cooperationand seamless exchange of information among the Areas and thedistrict.

ExecutionThe local execution plans would be grounded in local conditionsand prepared at the district-level. These would be continuouslyupdated based on periodic feedback. Some of the activities in theexecution plan are as follows:


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In order to sustainCOVID-control

operations over longertime spans, one way is to

tie them together in acoherent framework.

15. The 4+2 Way of Tackling COVID-19W R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

(6) providing direct help if the local unit is overwhelmed by alarge number of cases, and(7) converting buildings into large COVID-19 hospitals (e.g.stadium) with the help of NDRF/armed police.

order to completely stop the spread of COVID and to makesense of the “infodemic” accompanying the pandemic

The execution plan of Areas would consist of: (1) deciding on anumber of people to be quarantined in houses or in hospitalwards, as well as households to be isolated, (2) organizing localsanitary measures, (3) distributing food, medicines and dailyprovisions, particularly to the poor and the vulnerable, (4)providing medicines, identifying establishments (e.g. schools,stadia, community halls) that can be converted into temporaryhospitals, and (6) identifying private doctors to look after thesehospitals.

CultureThe existing culture where people go out for daily work and otheractivities would be reoriented to make the household the primarysite of activity. As part of this paradigm shift, a range of homedelivery services would be provided at the doorstep, for example,(1) detecting COVID-19 related symptoms (e.g. body temperature,oxygen levels, condition of lungs and throat) early andsymptomatic treatment using digital means (including medicinedelivery), (2) mandating at least 50% Work From Home for allgovernment employees. The initial success of the use of e-officeand teleconferencing holds much promise of maintaining highlevels of efficiency in government operations, (3) switching toremote proctored tests for admissions. Additionally, combininglearning management systems for teaching, tutorials, groupactivities, assignments and personalized learning (e.g. IndianInstitute of Corporate Affairs). This is expected to lead to nearnormal working in educational institutes, and (4) delivering alldaily requirements at doorsteps, including home delivery ofprovisions provided by ration shops and in Governmentprogrammes (e.g. ICDS).

Situating all COVID-related activities within the 4+2 frameworkand implementing just self-distancing, handwashing and mask usein area-by-area in order to gradually cover the entire nation isexpected to completely stop the transmission of COVID-19 within4-12 weeks. Furthermore, lasting changes in the behaviours ofGovernments, households and individuals could be oneunintended effect.

Finally, the 4+2 rule could also be applied to other governmentschemes to make them more coherent and bring about greaterpredictability in results.


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Situating all COVID-

related activities withinthe 4+2 framework andimplementing just self-

distancing, handwashingand mask use in area-by-

area in order togradually cover the

entire nation is expectedto completely stop the

transmission of COVID-19 within 4-12 weeks.

16. Creating the Local Software forCOVID-Control


There has been an inordinate focus, and rightly so, on acquiringthe hardware (e.g. PPEs, testing kits) required for COVID-controloperations. Now, the focus has to shift to creating the software. Invector control operations, the SIRA model (Survey, Information,Response, Appraisal) is widely used. Basically, the SIRA ensuresthat all breeding places are covered once every seven days toensure that all mosquitos are killed at the larvae stage. At the sametime high mosquito density areas are identified and controlmeasures undertaken. The complete SIRA model for mosquitocontrol is shown in the figure. Let us see how to apply this four-step model to COVID- control operations.

All the localities are mapped and health workers (e.g. Ashaworkers, pulse polio teams) conduct a daily household survey.Only targeted information helpful in developing a response toCOVID-19 is collected. The first level of information relates toidentifying people with symptoms (e.g. body temperature, oxygenlevel using oxy-meters, cough) or morbidity (e.g. severe asthma,serious heart conditions, severe obesity, diabetes, kidney disease).The best way to collect information is by using digital tools (e.g.ANMOL tablets); however, keeping in view the differences in useof digital tools in states, paper forms could also be used.

Next, the information is communicated to an interdepartmentalcommand-and-control center (CCC). The CCC would beestablished for a locality in urban/semi-urban areas, or 200villages in rural areas. The CCC would be supervised by an officernot below the rank of a Deputy Collector. The CCC would ensure

This local software is likely to connect people with public serviceproviders and provide incentive for citizen vigilance. People wouldtake more interest in COVID-control operations as they recognizethe value of coherent and systematic action where theirpreferences and demands count. An army of COVID-19 warriorswould be recruited, leading to greater efficiency and integrity ofCOVID-control operations.

that daily surveys are organized, information received andorganized in usable form, action taken and feedback obtained inorder to modify the response, on-the-fly.

The third step is to use the information to develop a set of actionsto achieve set targets. Combining survey information with othersources of information (e.g. via Aarogya Setu, social media) theCCC would decide on individuals/households or blocks of housesto be tested. On receiving the test results, the CCC would decideon the patients to be sent to hospitals or kept in home isolation. Incase of widespread infection in a locality, either lockdown or lock-in of a block of houses would be enforced. For these householdsdoor delivery of essentials would be organized through e-commerce or other means. In COVID-free areas, the CCC wouldcarry out an awareness campaign to make people wear masks,wash hands and maintain social distancing measures.

Multiple sources would provide feedback to the CCC. Some of thewell-known sources are: social media, volunteers, press, healthand other government workers and local organizations. Thefeedback would primarily inform the CCC on the efficacy of theirresponse and gaps in survey or information flow. The constantfeedback would enable the CCC to modify its plans, real-time.

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People would take moreinterest in COVID-control

operations as they recognizethe value of coherent andsystematic action wheretheir preferences and

demands count.

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S I R A S T R A T E G Y F O RM O S Q U I T O C O N T R O L

17. Leadership by Administrators duringCOVID Times


Four primary administrative practices - strategy, execution,culture and structure - determine the success of publicprogrammes. These are supplemented by secondary practices -talent, innovation, leadership, convergence and partnerships. Thefour primary practices were discussed in detail earlier (Leadershipin COVID Times, originally published on 25 July 2020). Here, thefocus is on the practice of leadership expected fromadministrators while grappling with COVID-19.

At the cost of over-simplification, it is possible to divide the careerpathway of the administrator into two - postings in Districts, andat the State/Centre. During their District tenures, administrativeofficers make decisions in the field “by doing things again andagain, failing, succeeding … getting a feel for a problem, learningwhen to go by the book and when to ‘stretch’ the rules”.

Experiences of decision-making in direct contact with realitysituations is stored in the mind of the administrator as know howand know what of making sound judgments, and engaging in goodpractice.

Proficient performance at higher levels (Centre/State) requiressomething more than mere recycling of the “repertoire ofexperiences”. Administrators are required to size up complexsituations and make rapid decisions that are not just good, but It is well known that the spread of COVID virus follows a geometic

brilliant. This requires (1) challenging conventional thinking basedon experience and during innovate during the process, (2)knowing how to move ahead when stuck while repeating andadapting from their own and others’ experiences, and (3)understanding the implications of their decisions in the widerpolitical economy.

Theory fulfills this gap in the way described by Charlie Munger,Warren Buffet’s close confidante:

“Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you justremember isolated facts (or experiences) and try and bang ’em back.If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’thave them in a usable form. You’ve got to have models in your head.And you’ve got to array your experience both vicarious and direct onthis latticework of models. … You’ve got to hang experience on alatticework of models in your head.”

Administrators often complain that theories are not useful in real-life settings (theory-practice gap). Actually, administrators areunable to connect “which theory” with “what kind of practice”,and what is required is to learn to connect the right knowledgewith the right experience in the way exemplified below.

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Administrators areunable to connect “whichtheory” with “what kindof practice”, and what is

required is to learn toconnect the right

knowledge with the rightexperience in the way

exemplified below.

17. Leadership by Administrators duringCOVID Times


optimism bias, where one underestimates the risk caused bythe virus, particularly if there has not been any direct contactwith infected individuals,overconfidence effect, in which one believes that being youngand healthy makes them immune to the virus,status quo effect occurs when one is unwilling to change one’ssocial life, and present bias means having a strong preference for immediateearnings, even at the risk of being exposed to the virus withlong-term ill-effects on health.

making people see more and more individuals, particularlypeople they like and respect, using masks and maintainingsocial distance. This leads to the bandwagon effect in whichindividuals tend to follow the crowd, including people in COVID-control operations. Helping toprotect others from infection induces a sense of pride inindividuals, andmaking home services available and giving frequent remindersthat prompts the focus of peoples’ attention on COVID-19 andmakes them engage in self-protecting behaviours.

progression (1, 2, 4, 8, 16) - if one person infects two, two infectfour, and so on. One major objective is to drive down the rate ofinfection by reducing person-to-person contact. Ordinarily,coercion (e.g. fines) is used to impose lockdown and/or mask use,social distancing and hand washing.

This is based on the well-known assumption in economics thathumans behave rationally (in self-interest) and would avoidbehaviours that are likely to be penalised. However, as anyseasoned administrator knows, keeping people indoors for longperiods of time is extremely difficult. If humans behave in not-so-rational ways, then one has to look for models elsewhere.

Mental models of behavioural biases enables administrators tounderstand why people do not behave in their self-interest, aswell as make people behave in desirable ways. In COVID-controlthe following behavioural biases have potential use:

1.

2.

3.

4.

Some of the tools available to counter such biases are:

1.

2.

3.

All in all, right mental models add a great value to standardrestrictive policy measures, particularly in COVID-control. Foradministrators, the central message is that possessing thenetwork of right mental models is expected to empower them toorganise their experiences in a way that gives strategic depth tootherwise chaotic experiences.


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The right mental modelsadd a great value tostandard restrictive

policy measures,particularly in COVID-

control.

18. Building a Better Indian CityW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

The COVID-19 pandemic has been particularly severe on urbanIndia. If one has to live under conditions of restraint in cities, howare localities where people reside to be redesigned? For this, onehas to understand the unique trajectory of India’s urbanizationand then apply highly specific solutions.

Urban India consists of ‘cities in a city’, and these have developedthrough the ages by a process of accretion of settlements.Accretion occurred as a response to invasions, physical expressionof a new political regimes or ideologies, and regional and politicalinterests. The process of accretion continued during the Britishrule, and they added planned areas to cities for Britishers (civillines) and the military (cantonments or military lines). Citiescentral to the colonial enterprise were developed much more, likethe presidency towns of Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata.

Thus, two types of spatial patterns are visible in Indian cities -indigenous (e.g. Chandini Chowk in Delhi, Abids in Hyderabad),and the new (e.g. cantonments built the British and colonies builtby housing boards, urban development authorities afterindependence). In the West, denser, mixed land-use compactcities are more liveable. However, in Indian cities the relationshipbetween urban density and liveability is not consistently positive,particularly in the indigenous city. Often, higher density in Indiancities is the result of over-concentration in the indigenous city orunplanned mixing of land uses (I call it “mixed-up land use”) in thenew ones. The congestion forces so generated have a negative

His planning instrument was a diagnostic survey followed by‘constructive and conservative surgery’. The diagnostic surveystarts with an assessment of the nature of gorwth of the city. Thecity would seem chaotic to the modern eye trained to amechanical order, however, there is an underlying order of life inits development. The method of conservative surgery is differentfrom the typical development of new grid pattern with forty feetstreets through congested localities, which was common practice

spiralling effect on liveability. How does one address this uniquelyIndian phenomenon?

One uniquely Indian way was championed by Patrick Geddes,pioneering town planner, who visited India during 1915 and 1919,and prepared plans for 18 Indian cities (e.g. Tanjore, Madurai,Balrampur, Lucknow and Indore). His work was commissioned byboth Bristish and Indian rulers. Geddes believed in ‘diagnosisbefore treatment’ and thus advocated survey as the first step inplanning. The survey instrument was developed in civic surveys inEdinburgh and became the model for later surveys.

Geddesian innovations have a contemporary ring to them. Forexample, reducing the number of paved streets in residential areasand turning the land saved into usable forms of open space, whichis somewhat similar to place making. He viewed both cities andhuman beings as wholes, and he saw the process of repair,renewal and rebirth as natural phenomena of development.

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The COVID-19 crisis isan opportunity to rebuilda ‘city in a city’. Making

operational theindividual and free stylemeans reclaiming localstreets and transmutingthem into social zones.

Urban India consists of‘cities in a city’, andthese have developedthrough the ages by aprocess of accretion of

settlements.

18. Building a Better Indian CityW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

in India at that time. Moreover, gridirons, while relievingcongestion in some parts of the city, increase it in other parts.Conservative surgery shows that new streets may not really berequired, as existing lanes can be substantially improved byrearranging the artifacts and activities on the streets.Conservative surgery requires long and patient surveys, that too inthe field involving hours of perambulation and sketching ondifferent sites. Geddes gave up on the mathematical straight lineand aimed at a different aesthetic - one more attractive andcomparably cheaper.

Thus, there are two styles - regular and formula-driven vs.individual and free. The former is found in new towns and thelatter predominates in indigenous towns and was advocated byGeddes. Diverse historic styles represent a recognition of varyingpreferences of houseowners. For example, one person may desirean open balcony, another a closed and projecting one, while athird prefers a decorated window. One householder prefers plainwhitewash while another one wants a painted plater house, and athird prefers a blue or a green. Slowly this is gaining recognition.

One of the most well-known examples is the transformation ofShahjahanabad in Delhi. It is street development of ChandiniChowk keeping in view aesthetics as well as the commercial needsof the residents. Most important is the involvement of the realstakeholders of the area - residents, traders and those in thetourism business, who are in the best position to contribute to thearea’s redevelopment in collaboration with governments. This isan exemplar and can be replicated in all commercial localities andhousing colonies in India.

The COVID-19 crisis is an opportunity to rebuild a ‘city in a city’.Making operational the individual and free style means reclaiminglocal streets and transmuting them into social zones. Unlike trafficzones, social zones combine car and pedestrian movement,children’s play areas, social activities and idea of shared space isapplied to transform busy traffic intersections. For this to happen,traffic engineers and urban designs would have to work together.

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19. How COVID-19 has Unleashed Micro-Governance


COVID-19 has brought into focus the role of Resident WelfareAssociations (RWA) in managing the pandemic in India. Whereverpermitted, they have admirably enforced local lockdowns, mask-wearing in public places, and social distancing. This providesstrong anecdotal evidence for the ideas developed by NobelLaureate Elinor Ostrom. In her research in South Asia, Ostromfound that there are two types of rules operating in society - top-down rules in form mainly crafted by governments, and informalrules in use followed by the local people. It is the rules in use thatexplain the performance of the RWAs.

In order to make the working of micro-governance units(including RWAs) more well-ordered, the rules in use should beidentified and codified as rules in form. Some of the componentsto be included in the systemization of rules in use are discussedbelow.

OversightTwo key functions that matter to local people are sanitation andstreet light maintenance. Sanitation would include workerattendance, street sweeping, trash collection and bin cleaning.The street light rectification report would also be reviewed everymonth. The RWAs would record their comments in a score cardcontaining responses on a binary scale - satisfactory or

unsatisfactory - and this would become the basis for monthlysalary payment of workers and supervisors.

Similarly, day-to-day administration of market and sportscomplexes’ maintenance would be entrusted to a group consistingof RWAs, plus authorized lessees and regular users of sportscomplexes, respectively. Furthermore, the RWAs would becompetent to inspect all public works at least once beforecompletion of 50 percent of the work, in value, and again aftercompletion of works.

EmpowermentThe RWAs would also identify beneficiaries for their eligibility.These would complement the traditional household surveys. Ameeting of all residents would be held where the names ofbeneficiaries were read and the number supporting, opposing andhaving no opinion would be recorded in a matrix. This is expectedto bring about a paradigm shift in the selection of the poor. Theunderlying idea is that we trust the local people and if they feelthat a family requires help, perhaps that is the best decision.

One area of concern of all residents is the changes in land use andbuilding regulations in residential areas (including Master Plan).The planned change would only be carried out if more than, say,

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In order to make theworking of micro-governance units

(including RWAs) morewell-ordered, the rules inuse should be identifiedand codified as rules in

form.

19. How COVID-19 has Unleashed Micro-Governance


80 percent agree with the change. Connected to this is the hazardposed by unauthorized construction in residential areas. Theprogress of building construction could be placed on the RWAsocial media platforms by the local town planning officers of themunicipality.

Active participationActive participation is to translate differences to consensus, and“deliberative polling” offers one way to go about it. Activeparticipation would consist of three stages: Stage 1 is anapproximate statement of position by various stakeholdersfollowed by a free-format debate. Stage 2 consists of definingissues, as precisely as possible. Stage 3 consists of voting on them.Admittedly, there could be side payments in exchange for votes.There are several ways of curbing such happenings. One way ispublic disclosure of each vote with each person explaining whyshe took the particular position.

One major issue is to give ‘voice’ to the silent, particularly if thereare local inequalities in power, opportunity and resources. Oneway of getting around this could be to ensure that any resolutionwould fail if more than 20 percent of the members oppose it indeliberative polling. This would ensure that the less-endowed geta voice during decision-making.

FundsThe RWAs should be given some funds, such as 20 percent of thetotal fund spent in the RWA area (subject to a minimumguaranteed amount). The RWAs would prepare a list of all works,prioritize them, and the engineers would execute the works. Suchfinancial decentralization would lead to “real” empowerment ofcitizens.

This is a list of some transformations that have the potential tolead to a major transformation in governance, because peopletend to take an interest in affairs when their demands andpreferences count. The duality created by rules in form and rulesin use would be bridged by the monitoring and supervisionopportunities given to citizens, and is expected to lead to a moreself-regulated society.


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The duality created byrules in form and rules inuse would be bridged by

the monitoring andsupervision opportunities

given to citizens.

20. Importance of Role-based TacticsW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

In a recent study, Assistant Professor Guo Xu, at the University ofCalifornia (Berkeley) has assessed the performance of Indian andBritish district offices during the 1918 influenza pandemic. For thishe examined mortality records of 1,271 districts (towns) during1910-25.

He found that death rates in these towns were nearly equal intowns led by Indian and British district officers before and afterthe Spanish flu pandemic. However, districts manned by Indianofficers reported 15% fewer deaths, as compared to their Britishcounterparts. Additionally, lower mortality rates were not relatedto difference in the qualifications or experience of Indian officers.Furthermore, differences in mortality effects were not due todifferences in hospital admissions, capacity, treatment successand expenditures during the pandemic years.

The Indian and the British district officers handled their task indifferent ways. The British officers went about their tasks byrelying on rules, while the Indian officers adapted rules to the rolethey were expected to discharge. The rule-based tactics arefounded on the classical model proposed by German sociologistMark Weber. In a 1953 study, Paul Appleby identified the followingaspects of a rule-based approach - preferring “technique overpurpose”, always trying to find a “wholly scientific or technical andwholly right decision” and conceiving programme planning to be a“mechanical, merely technical, unvarying” activity.

On the other hand, the role-based approach is founded on theassumption that events in real-life are unpredictable and districtofficers make decisions under conditions of uncertainty andinstability. This is more so in black swan events (rare occurrences),such as pandemics. Past trends do not provide a reliable guide tothe future. District offices have to manage the present as itunfolds or a cross the river by feeling the pebbles under one’s feet.Crossing a river by feeling the stones under one’s feet requiressmall solutions. Importantly, the touch of each stone provides afeedback whether to place more weight on the stone or lift the legand try to place the leg elsewhere. This is called the feedforwardbased on the information provided by the feedback.

Role-based district officers used such constant feedback tomonitor external forces and change tactics mid-way during anti-pandemic operations. The British district officers were schooled inthe rational method of decision-making and lacked capabilities tomove forward by feeling the stones in the river. Thus, they wereless successful in managing the 1918 flu-pandemic. If, thefeedback-feedforward framework is so important in decision-making in uncertain and unstable environments, then how tomake it operational in practice of administration?

In this book, Planning theory for practitioners, Michael Brooks hasdeveloped the idea of “trial balloons”. A trial balloon is an ideapresented, or an action undertaken, for the express purpose of


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This is more so in blackswan events (rare

occurrences), such aspandemics. Past trends

do not provide a reliableguide to the future.

20. Importance of Role-based TacticsW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

generating feedback. Under conditions of uncertainty andinstability, rarely, if ever, the district officers know with certainlywhat the single best course of action is with regard to a particularproblem. Trial balloon is an explicitly experimental method to dealwith uncertain and unstable environments.

While floating trial balloons, the district officer conceives of eachaction as an experiment - as a means of getting more informationabout the effectiveness of a given course of action. Decision-making then becomes a process of social experimentation whereactions are tested and continuously assessed, against thepossibilities and constraints of reality.

In trial balloon tactics, district officers have to get involved inmessy reality connected with dealing with people and politics.This depends on how well they understand the intricacies of thecircumstances and what is their role in managing them. In orderto understand the “messy” reality, the district officers have tokeep their ears to the ground; develop a group withmultidisciplinary skills as it is impossible for one person to unravelcomplete understand a complex reality and know how futureevents are likely to unfold.

Following role-based tactics, district officers are able to respondto unforeseen changes that arise in the real world. The way tomake decisions is to reduce the extent of analysis by examiningonly a limited number of alternatives. Here, issues are addressedindividually by floating trial balloons, rather than in a holisticmanner. No visionary goals are set and the objective is to givesmall solutions to what are large more complex problems. Whennew problems arise, these are addressed through a new round oftrial balloons. In this way faster decision-making happens which isalso more politically relevant and people-centered as it has ashort-term focus.

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Following role-basedtactics, district officersare able to respond to

unforeseen changes thatarise in the real world.

21. Making Teams Perform In A PandemicW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Practitioners leading COVID-19 control operations requireknowledge and experience in multiple disciplines, such as publichealth, medicine, administration, and project execution. It isimpossible for a single human being to possess all the requiredskills. Furthermore, COVID-19 is an unpredictable event beyondwhat is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severeconsequences (called black swan events). Decisions have to bemade with incomplete information, lack of reliable analytical tools,and in a milieu where administrators have very little control onexternal factors. Under these circumstances, creating the rightteams and empowering them is most important. The followingways of handling teams is likely to bring out the best in them tomanage COVID-19 operations.

First, supporting everyday progress by making timely decisionsand providing clear goals are great for engaging team membersand enabling them to achieve high levels of performance over longperiods during black swan events. This is in consonance with theidea that helping team members make their decisions increasestheir commitment to implementation, in addition to, of course,improving the quality of decisions made.

Second, COVID-19 operations consist of several activities toachieve micro-level goals. These small goals have to beorchestrated in a way that they add up to make a larger picture.Team members understand that they are part of a larger vision

Fourth, nagging works in some conditions and for some activities,but has to be used with great care and understanding. Repeating

with long-term value, and work wholeheartedly to ensure that theactivities are done right so that the incremental goals areachieved. For this, continuous engagement with team members,getting dirt in one’s fingernails, and frequently “sweating the smallstuff” is required.

Third, it is critical to understand that team members are differentand a one-size-fits-all approach is unlikely to lead to the bestwork turnout among all the participants. There is an increasingrealization that there are two types of employees: promotion andprevention-oriented. These two types require different types ofmotivation and incentives in order to bring out the best in them.For example, performance of promotion-focused employees isenhanced if they are assured that they are on target, as opposedto prevention-oriented employees who try harder if they are toldthey are falling behind. The reason is that promotion-focusedemployees see goals as a pathway to advancement andconcentrate on the rewards that are likely to accrue when goalsare achieved. They are willing to take chances, like to workquickly, dream big and think creatively. In contrast, prevention-focused people look at their goals as responsibilities and theyconcentrate on staying safe. Being vigilant, they play not to loseand dislike disturbing the status quo.


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COVID-19 is anunpredictable event

beyond what is normallyexpected of a situation

and has potentiallysevere consequences(called black swan

events).

21. Making Teams Perform In A PandemicW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

instructions and constantly keeping track of progress helps tocomplete projects quickly and smoothly. What matters isredundancy more than clarity - it is not the message, but thefrequency of the message that counts in getting the job done.Productivity does not increase directly and managers who repeatthemselves face less number of blow-ups and work less during acrisis. Therefore, sending the same message over and over again inmultiple ways helps particularly in the management of pandemicslike COVID-19.

Fifth, team members have to be given freedom in other ways aswell. Compelling subordinates to be present at all times(presenteeism) has adverse effects on performance. Presenteeismis the problem of members being on work but not fully functioningbecause they are being forced to be present, and it gives a falsesense of work going on. In fact, in COVID-19 operationspresenteeism is a much bigger problem as compared to itscounterpart, absenteeism. Unlike absenteeism, presenteeism isnot easily identified - one knows when a team member does notshow up for work (absenteeism), but one cannot tell when andhow much is the fall in a team member’s performance wheninsisting on presenteeism. However, this should be done with careand forethought - it only works if team members do not take theirwork lightly, most of them are willing to work and do not pretendto be ill or surf the internet when they should be working.

The five steps described above enable management of collectiveemotions. Collective emotions lead to accumulation of “emotionalcapital” in which leaders generate buy-in team members by givingthem a voice and ownership in design and implementation ofstrategy. Importantly, team members do not withhold support forprogress towards achievement of micro-level goals connected toCOVID-19 control operations.


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Collective emotions leadto accumulation of

“emotional capital” inwhich leaders generatebuy-in team members bygiving them a voice andownership in design and

implementation ofstrategy.

22. Reducing Biases in Decisions During aPandemic


In these times of rising and falling COVID-19 infection, how doadministrators bring all their capacities to provide relief topeople? Let us see how they make decisions based on emergingevidence from psychology and neural science.

Largely based on the work of Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahnemanand his associates, there is a broad consensus that the humanbrain consists of two systems. System I makes decisionsautomatically, quickly, and effortlessly, while System II requireseffort, is thoughtful, and decides what to think about and what todo. During the course of their career, administrators build up alarge, diverse repertoire of experiences, and they largely dependon these experiences to make decisions. These experiencescontain the know-what and know-how of decisions made/notmade and their consequences. These form part of System I.

In a new situation where decisions have to be made, the System Iscans through the repertoire of experiences searching for similarfeatures between the present situation and experiences stored inthe repertoire. Based on the level of similarity, rapid and effortlessdecisions are made. Over-reliance on System I is natural amongadministrators (and human beings) because it uses less psychicenergy and is less tiring for the brain. However, one unintendedconsequence is the reliance on several cognitive biases. The

A third bias is called anchor and insufficent adjustment bias. Here,administrators take an initial position and rest their decisions on

problem becomes worse because the biases are embedded andoften administrators are unaware of these ingrained, tacit biases.

Let us look at a few examples. One common bias is confirmationbias. The storehouse of experiences contains the how and what ofdecisions made in the past. Often, administrators believe thattheir long years of experience have built up an infallible know-what and know-how. They pick information that fits into theirexisting experiences and pay less attention to information thatchallenges their existing know-how and know-what. As a result,they are unable to look at situations objectively and ignorealternatives, which results in poor decisions.

Another common bias is sunk-cost bias. Administrators oftenexpend effort, time and resources in achieving results. Even afterall evidence shows that the intervention is going astray and resultsare unlikely to be achieved, administrators still continue with theexisting course of action. They focus on the past and on the timeand effort spent rather than what they will get out of it in thefuture. An important consideration is that the resources investedin the past will become wasted if course is changed mid-way.


P A G E 3 9

Even after all evidenceshows that the

intervention is goingastray and results areunlikely to be achieved,

administrators stillcontinue with the existing

course of action.

22. Reducing Biases in Decisions During aPandemic


this stand and fail to sufficienlty move away from this first point ofview. All administrators are aware of the stickiness of the firstnoting on file. This was noted by Paul Appleby in his report onpublic administration as far back as 1953: “Structure ofadministration restricts and inhibits formal delegation. But thereis more unconscious than conscious delegation. The view of theman at the bottom of the hierarchy who writes the first note on afile is all important in most instances”.

One way of being aware of our biases is to start operating SystemII. Using System II is extremely energy-intensive and causesmental fatigue. Importantly, switching at the right time betweenSystem I and II requires a lot of practice and self-awareness.There are more than 90 biases - imagine the mental fatigue onewould have if System II has to filter out all these biases. This is onereason why humans cannot use System II for long periods of time.As a result, there is an innate tendency to revert back to use ofSystem I in day-to-day life. Often, this is tacit and theadministrator is unaware that s/he is under the influence ofbiases and has to switch over to System II.

The challenge is to increase the available psychic energy in orderto move at will and from System I to System II and that toorapidly. There are several ways to increase psychic energy and oneway is to practice kriyas. The foundation of kriyas consists ofpostures (asanas), harmonious breathing and locks (bandhas). Allthese done in the right way and regularly alter the brain’schemistry and neural circuitry in a way that one is able to moveeffortlessly between System I and System II, and that too at one’sown volition. At the same time, breath control increases themental stamina and prevents mental fatigue arising from thecontinuous use of System II.

Such an empowerment enables one to get over the thinking errorshardwired in the brain, not completely, but, say, by 5-10 percent.This is enough to improve decision-making immensely,particularly working under the stressful conditions generated bythe COVID-19 pandemic.


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The challenge is toincrease the available

psychic energy in orderto move at will and from

System I to System IIand that too rapidly.

23. Rolling Out the CoronavirusVaccination Programme


Preparation of area-wise micro-level strategies in order to

The COVID-19 vaccination programme has several similaritieswith the highly successful pulse polio campaign. For example, inthe polio programme, drops were simultaneously given to allchildren under the age of five in two doses, one year apart.Similarly, two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have to be givenfollowed by another dose every year. Thus, both the vaccines haveto be given in multiple doses and at periodic intervals. Based onother similarities, the COVID-19 programme could be rolled out inthe following way.

Strategy

The goal would be to administer multiple doses at periodicintervals. As this would be done at the local level, it is imperativethat considerable freedom is given to local units to enable them torespond to local issues as they arise. Thus, a one-size-fits-allstrategy is unlikely to work and a ‘loose fit, light touch’ policy isrequired.

Plan of Action

The broad elements of the Action Plan, within the stretchablestrategy, are -

reach even the most remote areas in the country, as well asinvolve public right from the start of vaccination process. Setting up of booths in all parts of the district/state andensuring that remote residents are covered.Initializing walk-in cold rooms, freezer rooms, deep freezers,ice-lined refrigerators and cold boxes for a steady supply ofvaccines to booths.Arranging vaccines, identifying employees/volunteers andtraining them. Ensuring vaccine vial monitor on each vaccine vial.Immunizing people on designated days. For example, onimmunization days, in the pulse polio programme, over 2million health workers manned a network of more than5,00,000 posts and visited millions of houses to vaccinate 172million children every day.Identifying missing people from the vaccination process.Surveillance of efficacy of vaccines and giving feedback toadapt strategy and operations.Designing surveillance systems to instantly report outbreaks ofCOVID-19, followed by testing and isolation. Incentivizing the continuation of wearing masks and socialdistancing even after vaccination. Unlike the polio drops, the coronavirus vaccine is injectable, soa degree of specialization would be required. Thus, the vaccine


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Build an environment oftrust among individuals,households and groups of

people. This would beaccomplished through an

extensive publicitycampaign.

23. Rolling Out the CoronavirusVaccination Programme


would be administered by health workers or trainedvolunteers.

Build an environment of trust among individuals, households andgroups of people. This would be accomplished through anextensive publicity campaign. Some outreach tools are: replacingthe telecoms’ ringtone with a vaccination day awareness message,posters, TV and cinema spots, parades, rallies, and one-to-onecommunication from volunteers. And most importantly, to usesocial media in imaginative ways, such as immediately repudiatingfalse rumors and countering misinformation about the COVID-19vaccine.

Structure

The structure would be a mix of top-down and bottom-upelements. One way of designing such a structure is to use thesubsidiarity principle, also recommended by the SecondAdministrative Reforms Commission. Subsidiarity is a multilevelprocess that mandates that processes and decisions that can bebest performed at local levels should be executed there. Onlythose that cannot be satisfactorily done at local levels (e.g. vaccinepurchase and supply) should be “delegated” to higher levels ofgovernment, the private sector, or the third sector (e.g. SHGs,mahila mandals, Rotary and Lions Clubs).

The concrete steps of allocating functions among different levelsof the hierarchy are: prepare lists of all activities, identify theactivities that can be done best at the lowest level, entrust suchactivities to the smallest level, do the same for the next higherlevel, and so on.

Coverage

As all individuals cannot be vaccinated together, some sort ofprioritization would be required. Based on emerging research onmissing numbers by the Department of Science and Technology(DST), a counter-intuitive step-wise strategy is possible at thelocal level. India seems to have missed out about 90 infections forevery detected case - ranging from 25 infections for every casedetected in Delhi and Kerala, to 300 in the case of Uttar Pradeshand Bihar. In contrast, in Italy and the United Kingdom it is about10-15 missed infections for every case. The missed out cases inIndia were not tested because they never exhibited any symptoms.Based on this model about 60 percent of Indians have antibodies,and such people could be vaccinated in later phases.

For the above activities, adequate planning at the State/Districtlevel is imperative in order to avoid last-minute hiccups during


P A G E 4 2

implementation. Two crucial challenges are - ensuringparticipation of officers, doctors, and paramedical personnel, asgeneral fatigue may have set in due to the continuing anti-COVID-19 operations; maintaining and procuring vaccines, procuringvehicles, and a lack of support from community members.

The vaccination programme is not a one-shot operation. Multiplerounds of vaccinations would require a robust health network. Thenetwork would be built to routinely, not temporarily, carry out theperiodic vaccination. Ad-hoc measures won’t do, and everypossible last-mile problem must be thought out beforehand andplanned for. The experience of handling the pulse polioprogramme gives India a head start.

24. What the Pandemic Taught Us AboutLong-term Healthcare


The pandemic has imposed restrictions on the free movement ofpeople. As a result, several services were provided at thehousehold level by government and private agencies. The fact thathealthcare, distribution of essential commodities, and classroomteaching could move to homes upends the standard notion ofgovernance in which people have to move out of their homes toaccess services or buy products. Let us see how this inversion hasthe potential to completely transform provision of healthcare inIndia.

The focus of health services in India is on curing diseases, notpromoting healthy lifestyles or preventing diseases. Curativehealth services require creation of facilities (e.g. hospitals) withdoctors and paramedical staff. Insufficient funds leads toinadequate health facilities and a shortage of doctors/nurses,particularly in rural areas. Furthermore, large numbers of peoplego to hospitals for treatment of symptoms (called symptomatictreatment) for which hospital visits may not be necessary. Theresult is that the hospital infrastructure is stretched to its limits,and people are compelled to go to private hospitals. In privatehospitals, households pay huge amounts, thus crowding out familyspending on other essential expenditure (e.g. food, education). Incase of a major illness requiring hospitalization (calledcatastrophic event), families are pushed below the poverty line.

One way to break out of this vicious cycle is to provide healthcareat the doorstep of people without making them visit hospitals dueto several types of ailments and preventive healthcare.

During the pandemic, several existing treatments were madereadily available from a distance, also called remote healthcare.For example, the share of remote visits at the Mayo Clinic, anAmerican health provider, rose from 4% beforethe pandemic to85% at the peak. In all these cases the existing face-to-facetreatments were largely replicated and major changes intreatments made only in a few cases.

Provisions for healthcare from a distance requires remoteconsultation. The response to the pandemic has shown thatremote consultation (e.g. use of popular digital tools, likeFaceTime and WhatsApp) is as effective as in-person treatment forlots of diseases. Videoconferencing could be used to provideround-the-clock symptomatic treatment and has the potential tosubstantially reduce overcrowding in hospitals.

Tools for remote monitoring also hold much promise. Thepandemic has popularized the use of pulse oximeter formonitoring oxygen levels. In several countries, oximeter readingswere coupled with an App, and oxygen levels were monitored


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The focus of healthservices in India is oncuring diseases, notpromoting healthy

lifestyles or preventingdiseases.

24. What the Pandemic Taught Us AboutLong-term Healthcare


every hour. This led to early identification of people who wereprogressing towards hypoxia. Extending this further, remotemonitoring can be used to keep a tab on lifestyle diseases; forexample, recent improvements in sensors have the potential tocontinuously monitor glucose levels in diabetes patients. InLondon, medics are now planning to use remote monitoring tokeep track of people recovering from heart attacks and with lungdisease.

Another component of providing healthcare at doorsteps is thedelivery of medicines through online pharmacies. Presently, thePradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana (PMBJAP) provides affordablemedicines through stores. This scheme can easily be transformedinto an online pharmacy for the delivery of affordable and high-quality medicines to households, even in far-flung areas.Importantly, medicines would be delivered to patients who areunable to go to the pharmacy, such as the elderly and patientssuffering from chronic diseases.

In the institutional structure of India, sub-centres and PrimaryHealth Centres (PHC) are providers of primary/preventivehealthcare. While a PHC covers close to 25 villages, a sub-centrecovers 4 villages. The challenge is: how to rapidly make 1,53,655sub-centres, located throughout India, as the first port of call forall patients? The response to the pandemic has shown that it ispossible to replace physical infrastructure with virtual ones. Forexample, virtual wards were established in Manchester and SouthTexas to take care of COVID-19 patients and reduce the pressureon hospitals. The message is that it is possible to create virtualsub-centres where doctors provide symptomatic treatment aswell as refer patients for in-person consultation in hospitals.

Presently, households spend about 64%, of total healthexpenditure from their own pocket. Out of this, 70% is onoutpatient care, of which 70% spending is on drugs. From 2004 to2014, the total expenditure on medicines increased by 200% inurban areas and 253% in rural areas. The PMBJAP-based onlinepharmacy model coupled with remote consultation and off-sitemonitoring of patients would lead to a substantial reduction infamilies’ out-of-pocket expenses on healthcare.

In the past, remote healthcare was provided in few cases. Thepandemic has shown that it is ready for widespread adoption. Thiswould be a move away from the age-old hospital-driven modeland enable India to rapidly provide cheap healthcare to allresidents at their doorsteps.


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The PMBJAP-basedonline pharmacy model

coupled with remoteconsultation and off-sitemonitoring of patients

would lead to asubstantial reduction infamilies’ out-of-pocket

expenses on healthcare.

25. Becoming ‘Vocal for Local’ in IndianUrban Planning


In the past 10 months, all of us have missed the daily walks/jogs inpark trails, sidewalks for the elderly to walk, and the casual walk tolocal stores to purchase goods as well as the mental balm - gossip.Everybody has realized the importance of social ties with ourneighbors, walkable localities, well-maintained parks, dailyphysical activity, and the dangers of obesity. In other words, thelocal has become more salient (vocal) during the COVID-19. Thus,the idea of ‘Vocal for Local’ is no longer confined to increasing theavailability of local products, which are comparable in price andquality to its global competitors, but also to becoming vocal aboutdeveloping local areas. Let us see how.

Local would mean a locality in a city. Additionally, the focus wouldprimarily be on the built up areas in Indian cities, as opposed toempty spaces around cities. In the built up areas the key issuewould be livability - improvement of conditions in a given urbanspace (here, locality). This would require a change in approach toplanning.

Our planning methods, laws, and traditions relied on thestructures and dynamics of the west in the last fifty to seventyyears. At present, professionals who carry out urban planning inIndia are trained in methodologies created by and for the west.However, this normative planning does not scale down to the

locality level.

The locality is more human-scale, close to the individual, familyand neighbors. The locality-focused approach is about gettingunder the skin of what is happening in the city. Any change inlocalities would have a major impact on the quality of life of urbanresidents - a sort of maximum effect with minimum means. Technology would be combined with democracy to producetransformative solutions for localities from the bottom up.Empowered with evidence-based knowledge, people would becapable of designing localities in a way that addresses their needs.

Participatory planning would move from a theoretical discussionto practice. Citizen-produced ideas and innovative initiativeswould provide solutions to urgent, everyday problems. ‘Loose-fit,light-touch’ policies would incorporate the local in the way weplan and build our cities. The locality-level plan would be more ofa local strategy, action programme, or a political articulation.

The tactical nature of locality-based projects would integratestrategy and operational knowledge. At the locality-level, design isas important as provisions of core infrastructure. The locality-level design would be an example of collaboration and its


P A G E 4 5

Technology would becombined with

democracy to producetransformative solutions

for localities from thebottom up.

25. Becoming ‘Vocal for Local’ in IndianUrban Planning


importance in constructing an interest of different types ofindividuals (“publics”). The participation of people would naturallybe tactical in nature and produce operational knowledge throughdesign of strategies that change localities over short timeframes.

This does not mean that we do away with large-scale visions andlong-term objectives, but take into consideration theinterconnections between the citywide scale and the locality,infrastructure and digital applications, urban form in localities andinfrastructure, and the real needs of citizens and their willingnessto change.

The distinct feature is not the construction of buildings or bridges,but process. Process would be paramount. The process wouldrespond to the complexity of Indian cities and, in this way, enablecities to move beyond deterministic models. People would suggestprojects in response to issues that directly affected their lives. Byand large, people know exactly what needs to be done - context isimportant - and they would call the shots. Solutions to problemswould germinate in localities and cities, not boardrooms.

The planning process would enable scaling up by cooperating withlarger strategies - a practical mobility between micro and macroscales. The planning would ensure that the macro was always keptin mind in the picture - as the macro represents action by theState and the Centre. Not all projects would have a strategicvision, but would have a strong tactical character - implement asort of operation that targets one particular problem. This wouldbe different from normative planning as practiced by cities, whichdoes not scale down to provide livable localities. During implementation, mechanisms and operational modelswould provide feedback into urban planning. The implementationstrategy would be multi-functional and arise from local debateand be designed around varied interests, wishes and needs. Localstrategies would be produced collaboratively and designed toaccommodate patterns of the local built environment, rather thanthe other way around. Locality development is not about identifying a successful formulaand using it as a cookie-cutter for other localities. Generally, thelocality developments would be unique and one-off and only bereplicable elsewhere after adaptation to local conditions. The sitespecificity of the locality would have the potential toreconceptualize theoretical planning principles and create arepertoire of tools to shape the Indian city. The local Indian way ofplanning would truly become vocal.


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Everybody has realizedthe importance of socialties with our neighbors,

walkable localities, well-maintained parks, dailyphysical activity, and the

dangers of obesity. Inother words, the local has

become more salient(vocal) during the

COVID-19.

26. Why Some People are MoreSusceptible to COVID-19


One of the most enduring mysteries is: why are some youngerpeople more severely affected than others by COVID-19? Do co-morbidities (e.g. hypertension, obesity, diabetes) alone provide acomplete explanation, or are there any other characteristics thatpredict greater susceptibility to serious complications caused bythe virus? Some significant pointers are available from themortality rates of African-Americans. In the United States, the mortality rate among African-Americanmen has been disproportionately high. One study using datathrough July 2020 found that black people aged 35-44 years weredying at nine times the rate of white people the same age. Some ofthe stock explanations include: their self-destructive behaviors,their unhealthy diets, their genes, the neighborhoods they chooseto live in, the low-paying jobs they opt for, and “black-on-black”violence. However, anecdotal evidence shows that it is not just living inpoverty that wears down black men, it is the daily struggle in lifeand the constant “high-effort coping” required over a lifetime thatleads to lasting corrosive stress. This is partly due to what they aretaught as kids - If a task has begun, never leave it until it’s done.Be the labor great or small, do it well or not at all.

The unmitigated stress so generated wastes bodies before time,causes premature aging and lower levels of resistance to diseases.Let us see how this stress plays out over time. Whenever there is an external threat, the human body takesmeasures to ward off the threat. It does this by inducing stress. Sostress in itself is not bad, it is simply a psychological reaction thatinduces neurological changes and pours chemicals into the blood.This is aimed to bring the body into a fight-or-flight state in orderto counter the threat. In this state, the heart beats faster andbreathing quickens; blood vessels dilate, so that more oxygenreaches the brain and muscles. The immune system’sinflammatory response is activated to promote quick healing.When the threat recedes, chemical levels return to normal, bloodglucose reduces, and heart rate and blood pressure go back tobase levels. This is how the human body is configured to operate. A constant state of coping leads to a recurring state of fight-or-flight. This means that the body is always trying hard to bring itselfback to normal levels, or equilibrium. When the fluctuation fromnormal happens frequently, then slowly the normal state itself isshifted to higher (elevated) levels or the “normal is reset”. In the new normal, blood pressure remains high and inflammation


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The bottom-line is thathigh-effort coping brings

about stress-relatedneurological and

chemical responses.

26. Why Some People are MoreSusceptible to COVID-19


becomes chronic. The inner linings of the blood vessels start tothicken and harden, which forces the heart to work harder. Inturn, this impairs governing regulatory mechanisms (e.g.metabolism, immune response, or organ function) and over alonger time span, the neurological system’s fight-or-flightresponse is rewired. Ultimately the brain’s stress switch breaksdown. Stress effects are also visible at the cellular level. Each cellcontains DNA, which is, simply put, the source material of life. TheDNA has telomeres - repeated sequences of DNA that protect theends of chromosomes by forming a cap, much like the plastic tipon a shoelace. The shortening of telomeres is a sign of prematureaging and research has shown that in African-American people,telomeres tend to become shorter at a faster rate. We notice from the above discussion how the biological andemotional assaults lead to wearing down of the human body muchbefore the average time. At this point, it is not the virus that kills,it is the years of working non-stop and taking care of other peoplemore than oneself, that wears the body down and when the virusattacks, these young African-American people are unable to fightback. In the words of social epidemiologist Shawnita Sealy-Jefferson from Ohio State University, the effect is same as revving“the engine of your car all day, every day. Sooner or later, the caris going to break down”.

Thus, the bottom-line is that high-effort coping brings aboutstress-related neurological and chemical responses. Problemsarise only when such responses are brought into play withincreasing frequency and the stress switch goes haywire,ultimately becoming dysfunctional. Under these conditions, thebody is unable to return to its original normal state. A new normalcomes into being, and one characteristic of this new normal isconsistently elevated levels of cortisol and other stress hormones.This leads to the premature wearing down of the body. Perhapsthis can help further explain the difference in severity ofsymptoms and death rates between different people.


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However, anecdotalevidence shows that it isnot just living in povertythat wears down black

men, it is the dailystruggle in life and theconstant “high-effort

coping” required over alifetime that leads to

lasting corrosive stress.

27. Reshaping School Education in thePost-pandemic Age


The explorations made in education during the pandemic have ledto several lessons for teaching during normal times. One majorproblem in the present way of instruction is the lack ofpersonalized teaching. Ed-tech platforms were used extensivelyduring COVID-19 for home schooling, and one of the unintendedlearnings from their extensive use has been that classroomteaching can be made pleasurable and lead to better learningoutcomes. One key takeaway of learning during the pandemic is that it ispossible to make the child do what she enjoys doing. For this, apedagogically sound curriculum is required where themethodology would prompt students to apply their minds, askquestions, communicate ideas and take up projects. For example, a30-hour module on running a club could involve mathematics forbudget control as well as creative writing or coding a game tobring in fans. Let us see how teaching Chemistry can be made more interesting.Suppose the objective is to teach a three-hour module on theperiodic table in Chemistry. It would start with an interactivesession to bring out the elements and their groups or ‘socialnetworks’ of elements, then, go on to experiment with how theyreact with one another, thereby building deeper engagement than

a typical Chemistry lesson. In both these illustrations, AI-based real-time analytics could bedeveloped and deployed to assess learner performance andreinforce learning with material that is based on the personalizedneeds of each student. At the same time, the teacher becomes afacilitator or coach for self-learning and collaboration. A usefuldigital tool for such coaching is the use of online pods. Each coachcould handle online pods for, say, six children at a time, aiming togive enough scope for personalized attention. The pandemic has also opened up opportunities to use tools formore engaging or holistic learning than mere test preparation,which is what present-day teaching has been reduced to. Oneexample is to have a play-set with a tray, where kids place lettersas is done in Scrabble. But these are smart letters that getconnected to a user’s tablet. A digital phonics tutor and a library ofdownloadable games help the kids learn the sounds of letters andmeanings of words until they’re able to start reading on their own.

The new ways of teaching, including increasing emphasis ongamification, is even more relevant for teaching children belowseven years of age. Pre-kindergarten years are the most importantbecause this this the time when most of the brain and neural


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Building inquiry-ledlearning modules andenabling teachers to

unlearn old styles andadopt to this new way ofinquiry-driven way ofteaching are likely to

present significantscaling issues.

27. Reshaping School Education in thePost-pandemic Age


networks are formed, but most Ed-tech platforms are producedfor older children and hardly any cater to foundational learning inearly childhood. The reason is that it is harder to build content forthis segment compared to test prep or teaching algebra to classfive students.

California-based startup Square Panda entered India this year,partnering with State Government organizations to deliverfoundational literacy to kids in the age group of 2-8 years. Notedtennis player Andre Agassi, who wrote about his own struggle withschooling in his autobiography “Open”, became a leading investorin Square Panda in 2016. The startup sold hundreds of thousandsof the USD 99 phygital playsets in the US and other markets likeChina. In India, Square Panda was launched about a year ago and isrolling out a programme in Uttar Pradesh government schools andanganwadis where teachers learn to use Square Panda to getyoung kids up to hone their English. To make it affordable, SquarePanda has done away with the play-sets, letting the kids usevirtual keypads on smartphones to play around with letters andwords in the downloaded games. The startup is in talks withseveral other states to implement this in 2021. Another example isBengaluru startup Quizizz, whose app enables teachers to engagestudents with quizzes - it went from 20 million monthly activeusers (MAU) around this time last year to over 60 million MAU atpresent. The market is also recognizing and supporting these frugalinnovations in education and Ed-tech has started to attractincreasing investments. Nearly $1.1 billion was invested into Ed-tech startups in India in the third quarter of this year. This isalmost equal to the total funding made during the previous twoyears combined. The major companies where investment has goneare: Byju’s - $1.3 billion; Unacademy - $264 million; and $144million for Vedantu. Undoubtedly, there are multiple challenges to be surmounted. It ishard to switch over from brick-and-mortar to digital, tocommunicate the unique value proposition contained in switchingover to personalized learning on Ed-tech platforms, and to obtainthe buy-in of teachers, students and parents. Most importantly,building inquiry-led learning modules and enabling teachers tounlearn old styles and adopt to this new way of inquiry-driven wayof teaching are likely to present significant scaling issues. In thisnew paradigm, education would no longer be seen as jaded or arecycled version of the past.


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One key takeaway oflearning during the

pandemic is that it ispossible to make the childdo what she enjoys doing.

28. Lessons from Nature to Tackle COVID-19’s Second Coming


A hallmark of thriving cities is dense networks of humans,buildings, and so on. However, as the past one year has shown,dense networks also make cities more vulnerable to infection.Social insects (e.g. termites, honeybees, ants) live in highly densenests as well, and are frequently subject to viral and fungusattacks. The way they handle outbreaks of diseases provides someuseful lessons for tackling COVID-19. Professor Ruth DeFries at Columbia University, in her book “WhatWould Nature Do? A Guide for Uncertain Times” discusses time-tested strategies deployed by nature to counter the spread ofdiseases in dense insect nests. Some of the ploys used by socialinsects are discussed below. First, as soon as an infection is detected, insects sanitize theirnests - garden ants secrete a disinfectant and spread it on theirnests; honeybees collect resin from plants to disinfect their nests;and termites spread their own feces in their nests to benefit fromits microbiological properties.

Second, there is a change in the behavior of nest dwellers in theinterest of the entire colony. When a disease-carrying organismsattacks, healthy members pick spores and mites off their sicknestmates and honeybees flap their wings in synchrony to create

heat in order to kill the pathogens.

Third, they allocate tasks to different members of the nest. Olderindividuals live on the periphery of the colony and carry out therisky task of foraging for food and guarding against predators.Younger members live more safely on the inside and care for thebrood and the queen. What is notable is that insects with similarroles interact mostly with each other in a highly modular way. Thelogic is that a modular pattern enables clusters of unexposedinsects at the center to remain disease-free.

Fourth, their social networks adapt to prevent the spread of thedisease. Once a pathogen gets in, the insects rapidly signal to eachother and adjust their social network. Infected individuals becomesocially isolated and do not interact with healthy nestmates.During the process of caring for the sick, some insects areexposed to low doses of the virus and develop immunity. Suchinsects are deployed to form a protective wall around the queen.Thus, dynamic networks enable the insects to survive pathogenattacks despite living in crowded conditions. Similar network-altering strategies were discovered fortuitouslyin Nigeria during smallpox control operations: “There was delay indelivery of mass-vaccination in East Nigeria and a U.S. adviser


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Combing nature’sexperience with our ownexperience of handlingepidemics in the pastleads to the followingstrategy to tackle the

Second Coming ofCOVID-19.

28. Lessons from Nature to Tackle COVID-19’s Second Coming


organized an interim programme - he searched out smallpoxcases and vaccinated thoroughly in a limited area surroundingeach case. The mass-campaign supplies arrived only a few monthslater, but by then there was no detectable smallpox in easternNigeria. And, less than half the population had ever beenvaccinated. This result … led to … what became known assurveillance-containment - improved search and detection asspeedily as possible, isolation of patients and vaccination of everyknown or suspected contact around them. The procedure sealedoff outbreaks from the rest of the population”.

Thus, combing nature’s experience with our own experience ofhandling epidemics in the past leads to the following strategy totackle the Second Coming of COVID-19. Activate hundreds ofthousand of pulse polio health workers to track down each case ofCOVID-19, seclude the patient and vaccinate every person knownto have physically come into contact with the carrier. The newtactic would involve diligence, house-to-house visits, payments tolocal people to lead the health workers towards infected persons,and volunteers to prevent sick people from leaving their homes. This surveillance-containment method would create a ring ofimmunity around each infected person. The virus would not beable to spread beyond the social network. Managing the networkwould prove to be a more effective tactic and allow for moreefficient deployment of vaccine stocks, rather than massvaccination of the population. Specific activities are: identify the module (e.g. state, district,city/village, locality or households), identify the infected modules,followed by quick, collective action to stop the spread to the nextmodule. Perhaps the most important is severance of links atcritical points in the social network. Where and between whomthese critical points exist depends on the nature of the local socialnetwork. The trick is to break the link between infected and healthyclusters and isolate the super-spreaders. Wherever people and thevirus have come in contact more randomly, build a ring ofimmunity around infected victims as was done in Africa whenvaccines were scarce. This would have to be done by local officers,who are expected to be aware of the local network’s structure anddecide on who to immunize with what priority, where to deployscarce resources (personnel and vaccines), and whether to imposedraconian measures to isolate infected people from their dailylives.


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What is notable is thatinsects with similar rolesinteract mostly with eachother in a highly modularway. The logic is that a

modular pattern enablesclusters of unexposedinsects at the center toremain disease-free.

29. Why Does Time Pass So Slowly in aPandemic?


The pandemic has compelled people to stay at home in isolation.In solitude, time acquires a different meaning - somewhat akin towhat Jawaharlal Nehru experienced during his incarceration in theAhmednagar fort prison during the Quit India movement. Below ishis description of the experience -

“Time seems to change its nature in prison. The present hardlyexists, for there is an absence of feeling and sensation which mightseparate it from the dead past. Even news of the active, living anddying world outside has a certain dream-like unreality, animmobility and an unchangeableness as of the past. The outerobjective time ceases to be, the inner and subjective sense remains,but at a lower level, except when thought pulls it out of the presentand experiences a kind of reality in the past or in the future”.

In short, aloneness induces thoughts that take us away from thepresent as well desensitize us to the conditions around us.Something similar is happening to us during our voluntaryconfinement in pandemic times. What these experiences show isthe flexible nature of time - in some circumstances time passesquickly and in others it passes slowly. For example, when we arewaiting for someone or something to happen; in fact, we look forways to kill time. Current research in neural science andpsychology says that this slow movement of time is related to

what is called “thought chatter” and the operation ofdesensitization mechanisms in our brains.

When our minds are not occupied they chatter away tothemselves. A chaotic stream of images, ideas, memories andother kinds of information flows through at lightning speed like afilm made by a crazy director - jumping from one scene toanother, completely random and chaotic, with no plot. Time doesnot seem to pass when the thought chatter continues for anylength of time. There is another negative aspect of thought chatter- it is accompanied by worrying over problems, triggering feelingsof anxiety and depression, or bitterness and jealousy.

During pandemic times we deal with a lot of different demands atthe same time (e.g. house work, looking after the sick, providinghelp to needy) as well as having to face unforeseen problems. Inthese circumstances, our attention is constantly flitting around,from one object to another, and we do not focus on one particulartask for long enough to become absorbed in anything. This buildsup thought chatter.

Thought chatter uses psychic energy as fuel. There is a fixed quotaof psychic energy available for the mind to use; thus, the mind ishardwired to conserve energy. In order to ensure that enough


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In short, alonenessinduces thoughts that

take us away from thepresent as well

desensitize us to theconditions around us.

29. Why Does Time Pass So Slowly in aPandemic?


energy is always available for thinking, feelings and concentratingon tasks and information processing (called automaticperception), the mind relies on a desensitization mechanism toedit out several elements of immediate reality from ourperception. Excessive thought chatter requires more psychicenergy, which is provided by increased activity of thedesensitization mechanism, giving the impression that time ispassing more slowly.

The standard way of making time pass quickly is to reduce thedesensitization mechanism by obtaining new information orexperiences from our surroundings. For children, time passesquickly because the world is a fascinating place, full of newexperiences and fresh sensations. For adults, there is hardlyanything new in their daily experience of the world and theyabsorb new experiences by traveling to new places, goingoverseas, or participating in training programmes. However, theseactivities are inaccessible during pandemic times and one engagesin distraction pursuits to kill time, such as watching TV andspending more and more time in online environments (e.g.WhatsApp messaging). Reliance on such external distractionsabsorbs one’s attention and one stops being aware of theirthoughts, so time passes quickly.

In contrast to external ways of killing time described above, thereis an internal one to expand - and even transcend - time bychanging ourselves rather than just changing the activities or theenvironment. The trick is to partially close the desensitizationmechanism in our brain so that psychic energy is made availablefor paying attention to experiences available in our surroundings.One common way of doing this is to disrupt the normalbrain/body chemistry by fasting, dancing, breath control,participating in rituals/ceremonies, and so on. A morespontaneous way is to focus on one thing (e.g. meditation), playgames with family or simply relax by looking at the clear sky andtuning in to the chirping of birds.

By focusing on one thing at a time in our surroundings thoughtchatter is reduced, if not eliminated. We intensify and still outmental energy and build up high concentration of energy inside soreduce the need for desensitization mechanisms to operate. Thepast and future do not dominate our thoughts. They are onlyabstractions and only one tense is the present.


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By focusing on one thingat a time in our

surroundings thoughtchatter is reduced, if not

eliminated.

30. Pandemic Wave 2.0: Plan of ActionW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

Pandemic management involves multiple tasks being performed atdifferent levels. Subsidiarity provides one way of assignment oftasks (or functions) to multiple levels in a way that brings aboutcoherence and maximizes their effectiveness. The principle ofsubsidiarity, popularized by Professor Walter Stohr at theUniversity of Vienna, states that assignment of functions shouldstart with the lowest administrative unit and all functions that arebest performed by the lowest unit should be portioned out to it.What the lowest level is unable to do should then be assigned tothe next higher level. The same process is repeated for succeedinglevels. In the case of COVID-management, let us do the allocationof functions to three levels - locality (e.g. wadas, mohallas, purwas,petas), district and the State.

At the lowest level (locality), coronavirus medical facilities (calledcentres) would be established in buildings (e.g. banquet halls,community halls) or open grounds (e.g. exhibitiongrounds/stadia). These centres would contain beds, beds withoxygen (cylinders or concentrators) and would be manned bynursing and medical students and supervised by AYUSH doctors(India has more than 7 lakh AYUSH doctors). Testing would also beperformed at this level. Administrative arrangements, such ashiring of beds from tent companies, identifyingphilanthropists/organizations to provide food/water, etc. wouldbe looked after by the local tahsildars/BDOs/municipalinspectors.

These centres would be the first port-of-call for all afflictedpeople from the localities. Here, medical staff would assess theircondition and divide the patients into three categories: (1) not soserious cases would be sent home with a medicine kit and theircondition would be monitored by doctors using tele-consultation,(2) patients requiring observation and/or oxygen would beadmitted in the centre for a few days, and (3) serious patientswould be referred to hospitals having a tie-up with the centres.Ambulances located at the centres would ferry serious patients tothe hospitals for treatment in hospitals. Patients would also bereferred to private hospitals from the centres only.

The second level (district/municipal) and would perform thefollowing functions - arrange for tie-up of hospitals to thecentre(s); supply oxygen and medicines to centres; maintain andoperate ambulances; mobilize and deploy AYUSH doctors andmedical/nursing students; supply vaccines; collect data and acton information (including grievances); and coordinate between themultiple centres and linked-up hospitals.

The second level would also be responsible for the roll-out ofactive surveillance-containment in order to create a ring ofimmunity around each infected person. Local level field workers(e.g. ASHA workers) would be identified to conduct house-to-house visits periodically in order to identify infected persons andprevent sick people from leaving their homes, and isolate the


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The principle ofsubsidiarity.... states thatassignment of functions

should start with thelowest administrativeunit and all functions

that are best performedby the lowest unit should

be portioned out to it.

30. Pandemic Wave 2.0: Plan of ActionW R I T T E N B Y D R . S A M E E R S H A R M A

super-spreaders. Micro-level lockdowns would also be decidedbased on this information. In this way, the surveillance-containment method would prevent the virus from spreading inother localities (social networks).

Vaccination would be done strategically in order to break the linkbetween infected and healthy people. The tactic would be to trackdown each and every case of COVID-19, seclude the patient andfirst vaccinate every person known to have physically come intocontact with the carrier. This would reinforce the ring ofimmunity created around infected people and seal off out-breaksfrom the rest of the population. For vaccination, the experiencedpulse polio health workers are readily available.

The third level (State Government) would perform the followingfunctions: (1) continuously review and revise the action plan basedon regular feedback, (2) decide on locking downlocalities/wards/cities/villages/districts based on the morbidityand mortality patterns, (3) ensure doorstep distribution of food,medicines and daily provisions, particularly to the poor and thevulnerable, (4) monitor and coordinate conversion ofestablishments coronavirus medical centres, (5) distributepensions, direct cash transfer, etc. to the local residents, (6)procure and supply of all medial and health supplies and technicalassistance, (7) mobilize and provide digital solutions formonitoring operations at all levels, track patients and providethem access to tele-consultation with doctors, (8) organizeadvocacy on a range of issues that are connected to prevention ofCOVID-19 and its treatment, and (9) provide direct help if thedistricts/municipalities are overwhelmed by a large number ofcases.

This action plan provides a basic template for integratingpandemic control operations in a way that the whole effortbecomes greater than a mere sum of its parts. Most importantly,the action plan is a living document and is continuously updatedand improved based on feedback received from lower levels. Nomatter what the upgrade to the action plan, the cornerstonewould be adherence to the subsidiarity principle - processes anddecisions that can be performed at a lower level should beperformed there. Only those functions that cannot besatisfactorily done at the lower level would be “delegated” tohigher levels of government. Such reverse delegation would alsoinclude entrustment functions to the private sector and the ‘third’sector.


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This action plan providesa basic template for

integrating pandemiccontrol operations in a

way that the whole effortbecomes greater than amere sum of its parts.

31. Post-pandemic: Managing LargeGatherings of People


Lessons from the pandemic have the potential to lead to new waysof managing large gatherings of people - a sort of a new normalfor post-pandemic life. It is possible to learn from the experienceof other countries in regulating large congregations (e.g. Hajmanagement in Saudi Arabia) and adapt these to Indianconditions. Some strategic activities are discussed below.

Testing and quarantine

A negative PCR test result taken 48 hours prior to arrival for allpeople coming from outside would be mandatory. On arrival, allwould have to undergo a mandatory quarantine at a Governmentapproved hotel for six days or take a PCR test after 48 hours of thequarantine. If the test results are negative they could leave thequarantine facility. People arriving from areas designated as “high-risk” would be required to complete a mandatory seven-dayquarantine as well as get a negative PCR test after completion ofthe seven days. In addition, people who may want to enter keyareas (e.g. sanctum sanctorum of religious places) would berequired to have a COVID-19 vaccination certificate as well.

The multiple layers provide additional security and reduce thechance of infected people from entering. There have been severalinstances of people testing positive at their destination points

even after obtaining negative test certificates at points ofdeparture. Multiple layers guard against the risk of false negativesthat may arise due to technical reasons or due to fraud.Furthermore, several layers of protection would avoid gatheringsfrom becoming super-spreader events. This is based on a well-known principle of disaster management – redundancy - andexcessive precautions at entry points achieves.

Social distancing

The flow of people has to be well organized in order to avoidcongestion and crowding. One way is to allow only a limitednumber of people at a time into key areas with clear physicaldistancing. Police and volunteers should be deployed to monitorand direct people. It is well known that facemasks provide abarrier and prevent the virus from spreading. Thus, facemaskswould be mandatory and high penalties would be imposed onthose not wearing masks or trying to enter main areas withoutmasks.

High penalties have a deterrence effect as was seen in Delhiduring the first wave of the pandemic when the traffic policeeffectively imposed mask-wearing. Additionally, daily bulletins inthe form of text messages would remind people about the


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It is possible to learnfrom the experience of

other countries inregulating large

congregations (e.g. Hajmanagement in Saudi

Arabia) and adapt theseto Indian conditions.

31. Post-pandemic: Managing LargeGatherings of People


penalties and other public health measures.

The number of people entering the place of congregation wouldbe limited. This would lead to reliable enforcement of measures.Meals (e.g. prasadam) would be provided in neatly sealed packageswith labels indicating the stringent conditions of preparation so asto obviate the risk of transmission of COVID-19 during handling.Communal eating or sharing meals (e.g. water taps, eateries)makes for easy transmission of the virus, and these would bedisallowed. Food and water would be delivered to the people. Theprinciple is that instead of people going to the points to collectsealed material, it would be provided to them while theymaintaining social distancing at designated spots.

Use of digital tools

Digital tools (e.g. apps) would be deployed for the followingpurposes. First, allocate areas where individuals/families canmove about. In case groups of people desire to gather for socialevents they would use the tool app to apply for a gathering permit.Contact tracing would be built in to detect any positive caseemerging after the event. Second, record, track and monitor allCOVID-19 related personal records. This would include testresults and vaccination status of each individual.

Third, the digital tool should be able to access every place (e.g.shops, restaurants, hotels and vehicles); enable entry based onrecord of PCR results and vaccination status so that people whoare positive-PCR are prevented from moving around; and warn ofpeople moving out of their permitted zones with the help of alocation tracker.

Fourth, have a special feature for booking specific time slots foraccess to, say, sanctum sanctorum of temples based on theirCOVID-19 status. Fifth, monitor social distancing. For example,using Bluetooth, the social-distancing app would record peoplearound a person. It would warn of people nearby who have testedpositive. Sixth, have a provision to supply bar-coded wristbandson arrival, which would be scanned to confirm the COVID-19status of the person.

Admittedly, apps that track people’s movements - and that storetheir medical and personal data - would raise privacy concerns,particularly if the data falls into the wrong hands or is misused.However, one has to weigh the trade-offs in these unprecedentedtimes, and steps are required to be taken to protect the data.

Managing large gatherings of people in the post-pandemic erawould provide people with the option to visit events (e.g. sports,religious) as they were doing before the outbreak of COVID-19.


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The multiple layersprovide additional

security and reduce thechance of infected people

from entering.

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responding to covid- 19 in india - BY DR. SAMEER SHARMA

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