Venezuela: Political Governance and

Regime Change by Electoral Means

Angel E. AlvarezPolitical Science Professor

Universidad Central de Venezuelaangelealvarez@gmail.com

@angel_edo

Public opinion perception about Venezuelan democracy:Satisfaction with democracy as it works in the country

Argentina Brasil Colombia Chile México Venezuela Ecuador Uruguay

10.6%

3.4%7.6%

4.7% 3.8%

15.6%

5.4%

18.6%

38.9%

48.7%

34.1%

53.5%

24.1%

34.8%

45.0%

61.7%

39.3%

33.6%

43.5%

35.3%

45.1%

32.5%

42.4%

16.3%

11.2%14.3% 14.8%

6.4%

26.9%

17.0%

7.2%3.5%

Muy satisfecho Algo satisfechoNo muy satisfecho Muy insatisfecho

Source: Latinobarómetro. Values Survey Databank. Selected countries. Muestras: Argentina 2010, Brasil 2010, Colombia 2010, Chile 2010, México 2010, Venezuela 2010.

Regime change in Venezuela according to Polity IV

scores

Source: Monty G. Marshall (Director). Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2011. (http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm)

Venezuela in the Freedom House scores

Source: Aithor’s calculation Freedom House dataset (http://www.freedomhouse.org/)

World Bank Governance Indicators

Source: Author’s calculations based on World Bank data (available at: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp)

Partially free and unfair elections: some evidences

• Manipulation of electoral and campaigns laws and schedule (emblematic case: municipal elections)

• Government influence on the electoral authority.

• Political banning of national and regional canidates (about 272) with no judiciary decision (General Comptroller Office)

• Intimidation of voters (Tascón and Maisanta List, Maduro’s declarations)

• Unfair and corrupt system of party and campaign funding.

• Significant reduction of power and resources available for local and regional governments controlled by opposition parties (emblematic case: Alcadía Metropolitana)

Yet, elections are not meaningless

• Partially free elections create incentives for opposition parties to compete for offices:– Opposition parties get some power (at local and regional levels and in NA) and resources

– Opposition has gained democratic credentials (remember the 2002 military rebellion and the 2002-2003 oil strike).Still, elections are not the only

game in town

Government dilemmas1) At regime-game level: violent versus peaceful

revolution • Government’s choice: peaceful revolution, supported by the military

2) At the electoral-game level: un-free elections versus competitive elections• Government’s choice: legitimizing (partially free) elections

3) At the within-coalition game level: Vote-maximization (legitimacy) versus minimum-winning coalition (radicalization).• Government’s choices: 1998-2002: vote maximization (broad, heterogeneous coalition. Polo

Patriótico) 2002-2009: minimum-winning coalition (PSUV plus small “satellite” parties)

2010: minimum-winning coalition (PSUV) 2012-2013: vote maximization (The Great Polo Patriótico)

Opposition dilemmas and mixed strategies

1) At regime-game level: peaceful (electoral) opposition versus insurrection (by street-politics and boycotting elections, such as in 2002-2005).

2) At the electoral-game level: acquiesce on un-free election results (gaining offices but legitimizing the revolution) versus protest election results (2004 and 2013)

3) At the within-coalition game level: broad coalition (including discredit politicians) versus homogenous (“new politics”) coalition

Opposition choices, democratization and electoral outcomes

Legislative 1998

Presidential1998

Presidential 2000

Legislative 2000

Revocatorio 2004

Legislative 2005

Presidential 2006

Referendum 2007

Referendum 2009

Legislative 2010

Presidential 2012

Regionales 2012

Presidential 2013-10

10

30

50

70

90

48.556.2 59.8

51.759.1

100

62.9

49.354.9

48.1355.1 54.4

50.6151.5

39.9 37.5

48.340.6 36.9

50.745.1 47.22 44.1 44.1

49.12

03.9 2.7 0 0 0 0.2 0 0 3.140.6000000000000013.7 0.27

Government Opposition Other Gap

Insurrectional

opposition

Peaceful (electoral) opposition