Beyond Plato’s Cave © Timothy Williamson, June 2014

UPDATE ­ ­ History’s Lessons ­ Emergent or Entropic? Excerpts from ‘Beyond Plato’s Cave.’

*****This is an updated edition of the my originally released except*****

1 July 2014, Tuesday

Excerpts from “Beyond Plato’s Cave”, a short ebook available at www.amazon.com Search for the title. ©Timothy Williamson, 30 June 2014, Alabama, USA, permission is granted for limited quotation and use, either academically or commercially, with proper citation.

3. History’s Lessons ­ Emergent or Entropic?

From a simple set of rules and initial conditions, our universe emerged. From a moment of violent expansion, order, beauty, life emerged, and continues to do so on a grand scale. Each new occurrence, each new event simply builds upon the previous entropic event, but starts with the advantage of earlier components from that event. Even though disorder is present, and there is local and systemic failure and chaos and obvious examples of disorder in every system (the same as the entropy of classical thermodynamics, and in Shannon information theory), order emerges out of all these things. Though over the history of the universe, and even the existence of humanity in the last second of the last hour in the age of the universe, it may appear that cyclicity is the rule, it is not. It’s much more than cyclic. The existence of everything does rise and fall, but the next emergent iteration builds upon the last. It never starts from the beginning, though intermittently, things emerge and experience entropy along the way. The key point is that the future is emergent. In this chapter these ideas are explored and expanded upon.

Entropic Failure ­ the rise and fall of civilizations

All things die! This is a well known and much discussed truism. Centuries of philosophical

debates, and arguments at the kitchen table, or on social media, between friends and family, have

1

Beyond Plato’s Cave © Timothy Williamson, June 2014

occurred around this single fact of life. Death occurs to everything, living and non­living,... but so too does more life. Greater order emerges out of the entropic disorder we call death.

Yet death is not the more powerful quantity. If death were the more powerful property, would life exist? Think about that for a minute. Would there be order, beauty, stars, galaxies, life, intelligence, if life were weaker than death?

If entropy were stronger than emergence, would our universe exist? Would we exist? No! The universe would have ceased to exist shortly after the big bang 13.75 x 109 years ago if entropy were stronger than emergence. No order would have emerged. No beauty. There would have been no granular structure to enable star formation, and thus no blotchy background radiation structures visible today showing us that early structure.

One may die, but life is more abundant. Many of our religious texts from around the world know that life is more abundant, and plainly state it openly for all to see. Science knows it as well. But, yet, we are captivated by death as if it were stronger than life, than order, than the power of emergence over entropy, in all things. One, as in the individual, or closed homogeneous groups, clubs, organizations, states, businesses, religions, cultures, will inevitably face disorder, disintegration, and death, but over the long cycles of time order is restored stronger than before and life prevails. The world may experience dark ages, whether in the past as in Europe, the middle east, Laos, Cambodia, China, Russia, etc., or in the present, but over the long cycles of time, a stronger more connected order emerges from the preceding chaos. History shows it. The universe proves it. The entropic breakdown of order is weaker than the system­wide emergence of order that appears out of chaos, destruction and complexity. From simple rules and beginnings arises all the complexity, chaos and emergence in the world, in the entire universe, for all things, for all life, and the things life creates to protect, memorialize, rationalize, demonize, deify, and enshrine, itself.

Within our universe, but not necessarily in others, emergence is stronger than entropy, both being symmetric and universal properties. Emergence is just barely strong enough to promote order over disorder when the time scale is long: beauty, order, structure, holistic and systemic continuity over long scales of time , from the fine grained to the coarse grained, are its proof. Though, while living 1

through the emergence of disorder in a given time or age, entropy can give the false impression of supremacy, and even correctness, to those for whom local is small or vision is narrow and parochial, or for whom the narrative is weak, misappropriated or misplaced.

Cultures, civilizations, nations, peoples, religions throughout the world have come and gone based on this simple fact of our common existence. It’s applicable not only to living things, but to all things. Stars are born, then die. Galaxies of stars merge with other galaxies. Species of living things continually change and adapt to their conditions and environment. Some species survive by evolving into a new species more suited to a specific opportunity, like the cambrian explosion, also known as the

1 Williamson, Timothy, ‘Moving forward in a complex hyperconnected new world”, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA //www.academia.edu/6063996/Moving_Forward_in_a_Complex_hyper_connected_New_World

2

Beyond Plato’s Cave © Timothy Williamson, June 2014

divergence of species, which occurred approximately 542 x 106 years ago , and location, time, and 2

conditions. Other species disappear entirely having been unable to make the change necessary to advance to the next stage. Rocks, over millions of years, change too. Each of these individual elements experience an entropic increase ­ their particular internal order decreases while concurrently disorder increases.

Death is all around us. All things revert to the simplest form in closed systems when studied individually. This is the definition of entropy from thermodynamics. It’s a measurable process of disorganization ­ loss of order. Order breaks down, and maximum disorder takes over in homogeneous closed systems. It happens to all things ­ living or non­living. When people die, they become, again, the basic elemental components of atoms and molecules ­ carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, etc.. All systems experience this process. It happens to cities, states, civilizations, cultures, religions, factions within those religions, clubs, organizations, businesses, and federations.

Humanity, as it moved in tribes and small groups, from one piece of land to another, moving around the planet in the course of many thousands of years in their exodus from Africa at various times, brought with it the methods and technologies of survival, the superstitions and myths of previous places and peoples with whom they had interacted, or conquered, and the tribal organization that made them locally successful. As mankind moved to newer less occupied more promising lands, their systems necessary for tribal success and survival either changed, adapted, or evolved into the next iteration, or into something slightly more than the next iterative step, to continue, or they faced the full impact of entropy and died out. Many of these first groups did not survive. Many later groups would face the same fate as they became static, insular, closed, trapped in doing things in the way of their ancestors, unable to change and adapt to the changing world around them. These are they who could not adapt to the new environment and so some peoples appear in the historical and archaeological record only from the artifacts they left behind, or the records written by chroniclers made from the oral traditions of earlier peoples.

With the death or assimilation of a group, tribe, village, city, or group of cities, something stronger, bigger, with better technologies for food production, for food stuff development for improved energy content per unit of weight, projection of power,and the protection of its trade routes and peoples from outside invaders, adaptive civil structure and organizations, along with the methods of accounting for merchandise, foods, commerce, religions, took its place. This perpetual exchange of entropic energy with the emergence of something more than the last can be seen all around the planet in everything. From the worlds first city Uruk in modern day Iraq to the peoples of China, India, Europe, and the first peoples of the America’s with their highly structured and organized societies, why did they disappear? Why do some civilizations succeed and others fail? What gives one group an advantage over another?

When entropy conquers a group, tribe, village, city, or state, more often than not, a more successful system will take its place and build their own culture on the bones of the previous inhabitants. Many times the new system is also doomed to fail because that system does not recognize the innate

2 University of California, Berkley, ‘The Cambrian Explosion’, http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evosite/evo101/VIIB1cCambrian.shtml (viewed 22 June 2014).

3

Beyond Plato’s Cave © Timothy Williamson, June 2014

power of emergence as a natural property via diversity, plurality, adaptability, innovability, the broadly disseminated and dynamic pursuit of knowledge and understanding, taking the bold step to cross your own Rubicon, over entropy ­ it tries to direct and control the power of emergence in an unnatural manner closing itself off from the rest of humanity in a mistaken attempt to protect some characteristic of their group whether that characteristic is nationalistic, linguistic, ideological, cultural, religious, heritage, ethnic, sectarian, etc.. Sometimes old groups are assimilated into a newer stronger more adaptive group. Other times it is only a place in space and time that the new group occupied and the older group had passed into antiquity being unknown to the new inhabitants, but the location remains a strong and viable site for group success.

All around the planet there exists the proof of the power of entropy and of the greater power of emergence ­ an emergence that allows others to succeed in a bigger way when and as prior groups fail. In every case, when viewed systemically, holistically, what came later was stronger, better, more advanced, more connected to a broader, larger, group, society or civilization. The reach and interconnections did NOT and do NOT get smaller for the entire system, but increase in size, power, order, organization, structure, influence and scope. It’s a natural, inevitable, unstoppable fact of our universe that emergence is stronger than entropy, that greater order emerges out of chaos.

Jared Diamond postulated in 1998 in “Guns, Germs and Steel: the fate of human societies” that 3

not only did geographic location play a significant role in the success of certain societies, but so too did germs and rapid technological developments. Certain regions of the world have been shown to be the source of the original strains of wheats and barley, of cows, sheep, corn and potatoes, horses for transportation ­ all necessary to the survival of groups of humans worldwide.

The fertile crescent of mesopotamia was called fertile for a reason. The original, viable and edible strains of wheat started in the fertile crescent. Though it should be pointed out that the wheat of long ago has been steadily genetically modified through trial and error over thousands of years to become the energy packed food source of today grown all around the world. Cows and sheep were once regional animals, but became globally recognized and accepted. Potatoes and corn are now globally accepted high energy food sources as well, though originating in the Americas. Horses for rapid transportation were introduced to the Americas by Europeans, along with the germs that decimated entire peoples allowing the smaller numbers of one group to quickly and decisively conquer a much larger foe in a matter of days.

European civilizations developed, or borrowed, technologies in math, science, food production, war technologies needed to protect their people and project hegemonic power, thus extending their reign into multiple centuries over multiple continents. All of this because they needed raw materials for the survival of their people in their cities, villages, towns and states. In every case from the days of ancient Greece, and even further back to the first city that could be recognized as such by modern standards, Uruk, the cities that became states, and those city­states joined with other city­states when faced with some more powerful external force became larger states, with the commensurate needs of

3 Diamond, Jared M.. Guns, germs, and steel: the fates of human societies. New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1998.

4

Beyond Plato’s Cave © Timothy Williamson, June 2014

the connected people growing exponentially, the trend has been to greater connection and interdependence and conjoined governance as a result. Sometimes these systems do break into smaller parts, but invariably, they join with something even larger than before. There is nothing evil, nor apocalyptic about this process. It’s a natural property of our existence and our universe.

Kingdoms and caliphates in the middle east went through the same process, and continue to do so today because of centuries old sectarian divisions. India experienced it, and so too did China, Japan, the Americas, Russia, Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Italy ­ every state in existence today started from a smaller group of states or cities in the past. Though societies come and go, and civilizations rise and fall, the trend, even out of an age of entropy (Schweller) such as those days of chaos throughout Europe after the fall of Rome, the dark ages, is for there to arise something better, stronger, bigger, more socially, politically, and economically connected than at any time in the past.

For Europe after Rome, the renaissance was spurred by the strong organization, structure, religion, and demand for education, law and order brought on by the son of Pepin the Great ­ Charlemagne ­ leading to the industrial revolution and great advances in science and math and philosophy in later centuries. The process of state formation through the middle ages was highly entropic, but yet emergent. There was destruction, death, territorial and religious wars everywhere, and chaos was the rule of the day. But, through all this, stronger more prosperous states were formed upon the ashes of the past. No place on earth has been exempt from the power of entropy and the greater power of emergence.

The growth and improvements from prior civilizations, societies, cultures to the current ones has been achieved on the dust of the old. More often than not, the transition from old to new is traumatic and violent. Many of the more modern states, peoples, cultures, religions, and systems will also cease to exist because they refuse to acknowledge, accept and adapt to our emergent nature. History shows us that if they are holding onto systems and ways that ignore emergence, then they do so at their own peril. Those cultures, states, and religions, unable to grow and adapt with the changes, resisting those changes by trying to hijack the narrative through the promotion of fear, intimidation and threat, or through the promotion of insular and closed beliefs and ideologies, blocking the normally emergent future projected from the past, will fail.

The new world order that so many fear, resist, and preach apocalyptically about, is nothing more than the emergence of greater order out of previous chaos. The emergence of world order is not new. It is not the ‘boogeyman’ some preachers, teachers, states and doom prognosticators want you to believe. It is instead the result of inevitable emergence. The world has been since time immemorial experiencing an emergent new world order with every new age, every rise and fall of a society, culture, civilization. Only those societies and civilizations capable of adaptation, accepting of diversity, pluralistic and generally open, with a high degree of innovability, of inviting, protecting and promoting diversity of thought, opinion, peoples, cultures, languages, ideologies, and that create systems and structure promoting and protecting these things, survive over time. Yes! It will not be the same as it once was. It will be different. It will be stronger, more resilient, more connected, intertwined and co­dependent just as the preceding new world orders did in their day ­ only bigger and equally inevitable.

5

Beyond Plato’s Cave © Timothy Williamson, June 2014

The Post modern dark age According to Randall Schweller of Ohio State University, we are currently living in “The Age of

entropy .” Future historians will look back on this time, at our present confrontation with chaos, and 4

call it the post modern dark age, a cycle with a beginning and an end, but also the beginning of a global order unlike anything known or seen before ­ not pernicious, apocalyptic, or evil, but good and inevitably universal, symmetric, ordered, beautiful, and human ­ in all its wondrous diversity.

If we focus only on those things occurring in our immediate environment, locally in time and space, without having a larger vision and understanding, then it would appear that Schweller’s age of entropy may go on forever. Chaos is everywhere and seems to be increasing around the world. Factionalism is on the rise. Sectarianism is rampant. Myopia and parochialism seem to rule leaders and followers alike all around the planet. Nationalist and ultra­nationalist tendencies are increasing. Efforts to protect ethnic, regional, sectarian divisions, state and cultural identities, and linguistic differences, seem to be on the rise in places as diverse as England, Russia, the USA, China, Japan, Africa and the middle east. Even as the world re­aligns around these divisions, such as Scotland wanting to separate from Great Britain, the Sunni wanting their own place distinct from that of the Shia, or the Palestinians demanding their own sovereign identity, or some Crimeans asking to re­join Russia, greater order will still emerge in our hyper­connected and intertwined new world order . 5

Narratives resounding through numerous echo chambers of ideologies, cultures, religions, nationalities, politics, etc., drive those who, for whatever reason, refuse to broaden their base of knowledge, experience, insight, understanding, blindly and willfully believe they are a unique type of human ­ different from the rest in some special way, when in fact they are ­ just human. Unscrupulous political, cultural, and religious leaders manipulate the weak, and those unwilling to learn, to reinforce differences rather than working to bring people together. Is this a view of the future of the world? Is this view of the future a short term or long term perspective, or is it another example of cyclicity? Or is it, as is more likely, just push back against the over extension of order at an inappropriate time and strength where it is the increased global connections inherent in the strength of emergence over entropy ­ the balance between entropy and emergence is maintained even though both change over time. It is no more pernicious than the weak trying to protect themselves from the big wide world of ‘those other people, they don’t look like us, they don’t talk like us, they aren’t as human as us, or as free and fiercely independent and individualistic as us’ of a greater connected humanity. The only challenge is identifying the length and depth of the age (Schweller ) in question, and realizing that this too is, really, something 6

4 Schweller, Randall L., “The Age of Entropy ­ Why the new world order won’t be orderly”, 16 June 2014, https://www.academia.edu/7432984/The_Age_of_Entropy 5 Williamson, Timothy, ‘Moving forward in a complex hyperconnected new world”, January 2013, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA //www.academia.edu/6063996/Moving_Forward_in_a_Complex_hyper_connected_New_World 6 Schweller, Randall, “The Age of Entropy ­ Why the new world order won’t be orderly”, 16 June 2014, https://www.academia.edu/7432984/The_Age_of_Entropy

6

Beyond Plato’s Cave © Timothy Williamson, June 2014

more than cyclic, and that over time the emergence of greater order (Williamson, Malignancies in our emergent World ) prevails regardless of our fears, trepidations, and gnashing of teeth ­ but the time 7

scale is general large.

An Easy Narrative “Those who control the narrative, control the future.” (Williamson, 2010)

Is it enough to simply stand on the shoulders of giants when faced with the nuances of entropy and emergence on the path to a future? Should we retell the Epic of Gilgamesh? Or, the stories in Vedic literature? The classics of China, Sumer, India, ancient Greece, Rome, Africa or the Americas? No! It’s more than a simple retelling. It’s more than just an academic understanding. It’s the real, pragmatic and metacognitive application of this knowledge to subtle influences of narrative that enables emergence to occur at a pace such that entropy is not out of balance and thus not destructive.

Pushing back against the darkness of the post modern dark age, the age of entropy 8

(Schweller), while looking toward the next iterative step to the future. Whether that step is more entropy, which causes an inordinate push for order to increase, or whether it’s too much order, trying to force more emergence than the system constants allow at a given time, the system will maintain its balance around that constant: this comes with the understanding that the power of order, of life, of emergence, is the slightly stronger property over entropy. [A slightly more technical explanation is given in the next section.]

No one story, no one culture, state or nation, science, religion or ideology has a monopoly on completeness of knowledge, understanding, sagaciousness, correctness, truth, and rightness, but all are part of the whole fabric of humanity; and, it’s an intricately and beautifully woven imperfect tapestry assembled over time and by the hands of each person on earth, past and present ­ it’s the emergence of order over the anarchy of entropy. How careful, how attentive to the smallest of details, have you been with your part and place on our common shared tapestry? It is from this tapestry that the power of emergence over entropy is displayed.

All people have an innate understanding of their connection to all other humans. We are, after all, of the same genetic origins, having begun our journey to our part of the world, to our plot of land, from the plains of east Africa nearly 65,000 years ago. Differences occurred and were strengthened because a group, or community, allowed a charismatic leader to define them, defend them, protect them and their particular small part of this planet, and, usually, isolate them from others who talked, looked, acted, or who had some ‘revelatory’ experience, in opposition to his neighbors.

7 Williamson, Timothy, Malignancies in our emergent world, 12 June 2014, https://www.academia.edu/7325869/Malignancies_in_our_emergent_world 8 Schweller, Randall, “The Age of Entropy ­ Why the new world order won’t be orderly”, 16 June 2014, https://www.academia.edu/7432984/The_Age_of_Entropy

7

Beyond Plato’s Cave © Timothy Williamson, June 2014

The questions then are how do we identify those things that increase entropy? How do we bring to an end to the age of entropy (Schweller)? How do we help usher in emergence, or at the very least, get out of the way of its inevitability (Williamson, Malignancies in our emergent world)? Or do we just wait patiently because this too shall pass?

4. Meaning ­ a narrative of the future!

Any proactive response to entropic increase in complex systems and in complex systems of systems (Glass) must be a calculated and measured response applied at the right time and 9

place at a particular node or influential attractor (Williamson, Moving forward….) if that response is to have a positive outcome ­ one that reduces the negative impact of entropy, and opens the door to emergence (Yaneer Bar­Yam , Gershenson ). But, what of the whole complex system of system 10 11 12

(Robert Glass, et al, Sandia National Labs)? What criteria is used to select an appropriate node(s) for application of the response? And then, what should the narrative be that is used to influence the emergent outcome so that the range of possible outcomes is manageable and somewhat predictive ? 13

(Williamson, Moving Forward.. prezi presentation). Since emergence does NOT equal the inverse of entropy, but is rather inversely proportional

where the proportionality constant is very small, then this causes emergence to be marginally stronger than entropy, matching the effects observed in history, in the tapestry of humanity, in the universe, and understanding that the proportionality constant is essentially universal and fixed, then to maintain balance, when disorder or anarchy increases and entropy goes up in any system, efforts to 'correct' the imbalance also increases.

Equally true would be the opposite case where is too much 'order' is imposed on a system, then the response is a push toward entropy. The nazi’s during World War II, the communist system of Soviet Russia and of China today, and too much bureaucratic regulation as in the USA, are extant examples of too much forced order imposed on a system. Over time these systems must either adapt, as in the case of China, collapse as in the case of Soviet Russia, or be defeated by external forces like the nazi’s, or balance is sought in the three branches of the federal system in the US, or greater anarchy, disorder (entropy) increases in direct response.. All system maintain a balance around the emergence constant (which those better at math than me must actually determine and quantify). It's also equally true

9 Glass, Robert, et al, Sandia National Labs, Sandia Report, “Phoenix: Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems…” http://www.sandia.gov/CasosEngineering/docs/Phoenix_1.0_12_1_2011_%203446.pdf (viewed 22 June 2014). 10 Bar­Yam, Yaneer. “Concepts: Emergence”. New England Complex Systems Institute. http://necsi.edu/guide/concepts/emergence.html (Accessed 26 Feb 2014). 11 Gershenson, C. and Fernández, N. (2012), Complexity and information: Measuring emergence, self­organization, and homeostasis at multiple scales. Complexity, 18: 29–44. doi: 10.1002/cplx.21424 12 Glass, Robert, et al, Sandia National Labs, Sandia Report, “Phoenix: Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems…” http://www.sandia.gov/CasosEngineering/docs/Phoenix_1.0_12_1_2011_%203446.pdf (viewed 22 June 2014). 13 Williamson, Timothy, ‘Human complexity,...’, January 2013, Prezi Presentation, http://prezi.com/444csvegwnht/local­prosperity­global­vision/

8

Beyond Plato’s Cave © Timothy Williamson, June 2014

when emergence has been hijacked forcing too much order on or in a system. It's the momentum in the direction of emergence, even though at a very small velocity, that causes the overall system, whether closed or open, to restore balance. That's why it's more than simply cyclic. The equations should be written in an iterative form.

Emergence Defined - technical (somewhat!!!) Based on the conditions previously given, emergence is mathematically defined as ... Em=(ke/S) +S

Keep in mind that this is an iterative mapping performed while ke is held constant, and where S is entropy, Em is emergence, and ke is the emergence constant and 0 < ke < 0.1 The right side of ke may even be much less than 0.1, but I simply do not yet know definitively. This definition yields an emergence that is slightly greater than entropy, and iteration gives increased applicability over time.

Solving for ke where S > 0, and given that Em > S (Em = S + n, where 0.0 < n < 0.1) Therefore, the emergence constant, ke is, ke = Em S ­ S2

There are numerous methods for calculating S, entropy, from that of closed or open systems in

classical thermodynamics to information theory. Regardless of the theory employed, the emergence constant is symmetric and universal, while emergence and entropy are quantifiable properties of all systems.

5. Conclusion The future of humanity is emergent. Over very long scales of time, through all the chaos,

anarchy, entropy of any given moment or slice in time, through the various permutations of civilizations that have come and gone, each successive iteration builds upon the remnants of those that came before. Some permutations were good, some were not. But over time, the whole of humanity, the system of systems overall, emerges to be more ordered and more highly connected than those that came before.

The future of our solar system and our galaxy is also emergent. Though there is great order and beauty throughout these structures, these things will not last forever, but will experience entropy. Out of

9

Beyond Plato’s Cave © Timothy Williamson, June 2014

that systemic entropy will also arise, again, more lasting order ­ an emergent future for the stars which will become the building blocks of new planets and new stars with greater potential for more order, beauty, and even life.

The fact that emergence is stronger than entropy, shown to be a mathematical balance of oppositional properties, means that it’s possible to ‘anticipate’ a future, either entropic or emergent, based on quantifiable conditions. The determination of the value of the emergence constant should be the goal of future research. There should be a way to quantify systemic entropy globally. There should also be a way to quantify systemic emergence globally. Then from these two measurements, we can get the emergence constant. Since this constant is universal and symmetric, then we would have a method by which predictions may be made about:

1. the state of the global system 2. whether certain actions may lead to greater or lesser balance 3. the impact of certain narratives on the future 4. help determine the best way forward so that the actions taken do not threaten a push to

overcompensate on either side of the equation. 5. should also give a means whereby the effect of an action can be determined generally

for long time periods. 6. a guided future path determination that is in balance that causes neither increased

disorder nor overburdening order.

We can write our future, but it must recognize the balance between emergence and entropy that

gives emergence a slight advantage. Current events happening around the world in this moment of time do appear to be increasing entropy. An event, time or age may swing from too much disorder to too much order but the system maintains balance around the slightly more advantageous power of emergence over entropy.

5. Bibliography and additional reading sources

1. Bar­Yam, Yaneer, Complexity rising: From human beings to human civilization, a complexity profile, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS UNESCO Publishers, Oxford, UK, 2002); also NECSI Report 1997­12­01 (1997).

2. Bar­Yam, Yaneer. “Concepts: Emergence”. New England Complex Systems Institute. http://necsi.edu/guide/concepts/emergence.html (Accessed 26 Feb 2014).

3. Brummitt, Charles D. D’Souza, Raissa. Leicht, E.A. “Suppressing cascades of load in interdependent networks PNAS 2012”. PNAS Plus ­ Physical Sciences ­ Applied Mathematics. published ahead of print February 21, 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1110586109

4. Burbeck, Steve. “Complexity and the Evolution of Computing: Biological Principles for 10

Beyond Plato’s Cave © Timothy Williamson, June 2014

Managing Evolving Systems”. http://www.evolutionofcomputing.org/Complexity%20and%20Evolution%20of%20Computing%20v2.pdf (accessed 26 Feb 14).

5. Card, Orson Scott. Ender's Game. New York: Tor, 1991. Print 6. Chen, Pisin. Izumi, Keisuke. Tung, Nien­En. “Natural Emergence of Cosmological Constant

and Dark Radiation from Stephenson­Kilmister­Yang­Camenzind Theory of Gravity” http://arxiv.org/abs/1304.6334 (Submitted on 23 Apr 2013).

7. Diamond, Jared M.. Guns, germs, and steel: the fates of human societies. New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1998.

8. Gershenson, C. and Fernández, N. (2012), Complexity and information: Measuring emergence, self­organization, and homeostasis at multiple scales. Complexity, 18: 29–44. doi: 10.1002/cplx.21424

9. Gibbon, Edward, and Hans Mueller. The decline and fall of the Roman Empire. Modern Library pbk. ed. New York: Modern Library, 2003.

10. Glass, Robert, et al, Sandia National Labs, Sandia Report, “Phoenix: Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems…” http://www.sandia.gov/CasosEngineering/docs/Phoenix_1.0_12_1_2011_%203446.pdf (viewed 22 June 2014).

11. Hall, Wayne Michael, and Gary Citrenbaum. Intelligence analysis how to think in complex environments. Westport, CT: Praeger Security International, 2010.

12. Østreng, Willy. "Reductionism versus Holism–Contrasting Approaches." Consilience. Interdisciplinary Communications 2006 (2005): 11­14.

13. Mann, Brigham J., Systemic Thinking ­ Enhancing Intelligence Preparation and Estimates, Naval War College, 30 April 2010. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi­bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA525138

14. Schweller, Randall, “The Age of Entropy ­ Why the new world order won’t be orderly”, 16 June 2014, https://www.academia.edu/7432984/The_Age_of_Entropy

15. University of California, Berkley, ‘The Cambrian Explosion’, http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evosite/evo101/VIIB1cCambrian.shtml (viewed 22 June 2014).

16. Williamson, Timothy, Knowing and Imagining, http://www.philosophy.ox.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/29941/kindfinal.pdf

17. Williamson, Timothy, Malignancies in our emergent world, 12 June 2014, https://www.academia.edu/7325869/Malignancies_in_our_emergent_world

18. Williamson, Timothy, ‘Moving forward in a complex hyperconnected new world”. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wKo6_0vAtuURdUViWH0RPpweEINva3j2CX8RmTGxT4M/edit?usp=drive_web 2013, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA or at //www.academia.edu/6063996/Moving_Forward_in_a_Complex_hyper_connected_New_World

19. Williamson, Timothy, The Rise of Regional Federalism, 2 June 2014, https://www.academia.edu/7230426/The_Rise_of_Regional_Federalism

20. Williamson, Timothy, ‘Human complexity,...’, January 2013, Prezi Presentation, http://prezi.com/444csvegwnht/local­prosperity­global­vision/

11