Heterogeneity in Contemporary Chinese Marriage

Heterogeneity in Contemporary China’s Marriage 1

HETEROGENEITY IN CONTEMPORARY CHINESE MARRIAGE

Heterogeneity in Contemporary Chinese Marriage

Yingchun Ji1

[email protected]

Wei-Jun Jean Yeung2

[email protected]

Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore

1 Yingchun Ji is research fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore

2 Wei-Jun Jean Yeung is cluster leader of the Changing Family in Asia cluster at the Asia

Research Institute and professor in the sociology department, National University of Singapore.


Abstract

Is universal and early marriage still true in China after decades of dramatic socioeconomic

changes? Based on the 2005 Population Survey data, we find that by age 35-39, almost all

women are married and less than 5% of men remain single with the singulate mean age at

marriage (SMAM) in the country at 25.7 and 23.5 for men and women respectively. There are

notable regional variations in marriage prevalence and timing across China, likely due to

economic development, migration, and cultural norms particularly for ethnic minorities.

Those who live in the East and in urban areas tend to enter marriage later. Universal and early

marriage is particularly true for women with no education, and least so for men with no

education. College education delays marriage for both men and women, but most of them

eventually marry. We discuss the implications of findings for highly educated women and poorly

educated men.

Keywords: marriage; China; education; leftover women; surplus men

Introduction

Family scholars have been perplexed by contemporary China’s universal and early marriage

phenomenon not found in western industrialized countries or its East Asian and Southeast Asian

neighbors (Jones & Gubbaju, 2009). At the same time, there are increasing concerns over the

surplus men resulting from the imbalanced sex ratio that arose largely due to the strict one-child

family policy in China since the late 1970s (Huang in this issue; Poston & Glover, 2005; Trent &

South, 2011; Tuljapurkar, Li, & Feldman, 1995). Since the first decade of this century, a heated

debate has also arisen among policy makers, the public, and scholars over the “leftover” women,

who are college educated and remain single in their late 20s and 30s (Cai & Tian, 2013; Gaetano,


2010; Qian, 2012; To, 2013). This paper addresses the following questions: To what extent is

universal and early marriage still true in contemporary China? What are the heterogeneities

within the national pattern of marriage? How are education and gender interwoven in shaping

marriage formation patterns?

This study has three motivations. First, although recent research has focused on

determinants of marriage formation in China (Tian, 2013; Yeung & Hu, 2013; Yu & Xie, 2013),

little attention has been paid to the geographic heterogeneity found across the country. We

examine the overall marriage formation pattern in China and further differentiate it by region,

and discuss the relevance of variations in economic, social and cultural contexts across China in

shaping marriage formation behavior. Third, the derogatory labeling of “leftover women” tends

to stigmatize the small proportion of college educated women while ignoring the looming

marriageability issue facing a large number of excess young men in the marriage market in the

coming decades. We investigate the marriage formation patterns for both social groups and

examine the interplay between gender and education.

Using the 2005 one-percent Population Survey data, we first calculate the Singulate

Mean Age at Marriage (SMAM) for the entire country and for the 25 provinces for which data

are available (for convenience of wording, we refer to metropolitan Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin

and Chongqing and ethnic autonomous regions of Xinjiang, Xizang, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia

and Guangxi as provinces even though they are administrative districts at the provincial level).

Second, we select provinces from each region in order to illustrate the heterogeneity in marriage

prevalence across the country and how gender and education differentiate marriage prevalence

within each province. Finally, we estimate marriage timing both at the national and provincial

levels in China to examine factors that shape family formation patterns in China.


Background

Heterogeneity within China

Much research on social and family changes in China has concentrated on the impact of

socioeconomic development in China before and after the reform (Tian, 2013; Yeung & Ji, 2013;

Yu & Xie, 2013). These studies neglect the importance of regional heterogeneity in marriage

formation within China, for example, variations in contextual factors, such as cultural norms and

ethnic difference. Thornton and Fricke (1987) and Thornton (2005) argue that there is no solo

developmental trajectory of family changes, and it is critical to study family behaviors in the

local socioeconomic and cultural context. Recent research in Asian countries also emphasizes the

role of historical culture and local institutional contexts in shaping marriage formation behavior

(Ji, 2013; Park, 2013; Yeung & Alipio, 2013).

In term of socioeconomic development and local culture, China is conventionally

categorized into three regions: the East, Central and West. The highly urbanized East has a dense

population with a relatively higher education level, and a highly developed economy. For

example, most of China’s mega cities with a population of over 10 million and highly developed

economy such as Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou are in this region. This region is

also the destination of massive migration from the West and Central agricultural provinces.

Historically, this region is well integrated into the global economy and is regarded as culturally

more open and progressive (Yuan, 2012).

In the Central and West, education level is low, and agriculture plays an important role.

The economy is less integrated into the global system, and many local residents migrate to the

East, with Sichuan and Henan as two big migrant sending provinces. Compared to the East, the

Central and the West are more isolated inland, and tend to stick to tradition (Yuan, 2012).


The West has a more concentrated ethnic minority population, with many residing in the

remote inland. Tibet, Guangxi, Ningxia and Xinjiang are four of the five ethnic autonomous

provinces with less developed economies, and ethnic groups have unique cultural traditions

stemming from their own religious-cultural history, distinct from the mainstream Chinese culture

(Yuan, 2012; Zhao, 2007). These ethnic groups are less influenced by the Confucian pro-

marriage and pro-fertility tradition. For example, Zhao (2007) points out that among the Hui, the

third largest ethnic group in China, and mostly residing in Northwest China, Islam plays a crucial

role in the society, although the Hui also adhere closely to Chinese culture. They are different

from Muslims in other parts of the world, with the exception of marriage customs where they

strictly follow the Muslim tradition (Zhao, 2007). Research in Malaysia and Indonesia finds that

Muslims tend to marry early and have higher marriage rates compared to Chinese and other non-

Muslims (Jones, 1980; Jones, 2001; Tey, 2011). Therefore, Hui’s ethnic and religious tradition of

early and near universal marriage may play an important role in their marriage formation.

Likewise, other ethnic groups in Southwest as well as South China also have their unique

marriage customs, such as the “delayed transfer marriage” practiced among various non-Han

ethnic groups in Qing Dynasty in south China such as the Zhuang in Guangxi, the Miao in

Guizhou and the Li in Hainan (Siu, 1990; Xu, 1983). In this practice, wives usually stay long-

term in their natal homes after marriage before eventually moving into the husbands’ homes,

contrary to Han Confucian tradition (Siu, 1990; Xu, 1983). With increasing educational

attainment and migration and the changing gender roles in China in the past six decades,

marriage patterns in regions with high concentration of ethnic minorities may have undergone

changes as a result of a complex interplay between traditional cultural norms and socioeconomic

development.


Gender and Education in Relation to Marriage Formation

Education and gender have been shown to be two key factors in the literature of marriage

formation. In the western family literature, early research generally relates men’s education to

higher marriage rates and women’s education to later and fewer marriages (Becker, 1991). In the

last few decades, research has examined the relationship between gender, education and marriage

formation in the social context of changing gender equality and women’s changing economic

role (Goldstein & Kenney, 2001; Kalmijn, 2013; McDonald, 2000; Ono, 2003; Oppenheimer,

1988 &1994; Sweeney, 2002).

McDonald (2000) argues that the different institutional context of gender equality is the

important background of puzzling family formation behaviors across different countries.

Oppenheimer (1988, 1994) notes that after the 1960s in the United States, women’s labor force

participation increased dramatically, men’s labor market circumstances deteriorated, especially

after 1990, mass education spread rapidly, and gender ideology became more egalitarian. These

changing institutional factors have made women’s earning capacity more attractive in the

marriage market since the 1970s. A considerable body of research in the West reports the

positive effects of women’s education on marriage formation (Goldscheider & Waite, 1986;

Goldstein & Kenney, 2001; Oppenheimer, 1994; Sweeney, 2002). Ono (2003) demonstrates that

in three countries from three continents on a spectrum of gender role differentiation from

segregated to egalitarian—Japan, the United States and Sweden —the effect of women’s

economic role on marriage timing switches from negative to positive. Fukuda (2013) recently

reports that in Japan, due to a more egalitarian gender relationship and the greater labor market


uncertainties, the association between women’ earning capacity and marriage propensity for the

1960s and the 1970s birth cohort has shifted from negative to positive.

In other Asian societies including China, education is still reported to have a gendered

pattern in marriage formation, delaying women’s but accelerating men’s marriage formation

(Jones & Gubbaju, 2009; Raymo & Iwasawa, 2005; Tian, 2013). However, it has also been

reported that education can delay both men’s and women’s entry into marriage (Yeung & Ji,

2013; Yu & Xie, 2013). At the same time, research on China reports an increasing educational

homogamy, and the pattern tends to be pronounced among college graduates (Han, 2010; Qian,

2012). However, studies have found that marriage chances can decline significantly for college

educated women who are older, particularly those in their 30s (Cai & Tian, 2013; Cai & Wang,

2011; Yu & Xie, 2013).

Another important body of research examining gender differentials in marriage formation

pertains to age and status hypergamy (Glick & Lin, 1986; Presser, 1975). Further, due to the

“gender double standard of aging”—as men and women age, women’s marriage market shrinks

much faster than men’s—unmarried older men will marry even younger women (England &

McClintock, 2009). In view of this, researchers believe that both age and status hypergamy are

underlying challenges in the marriage market faced by older college educated women, the so-

called “leftover” women in China (Cai & Tian, 2013).

Gender and Education Dynamics in China

Since the 1950s, the Chinese government has promoted gender equality in various social

dimensions: choice of spouse, property ownership, right to participate fully in education and the

labor market (Bauer, Feng, Riley, & Zhao, 1992; Maurer-Fazio, Connelly, Chen, & Tang, 2011;


Whyte, 1984). After the launch of economic reforms in 1978, and with the deepening of

marketization, the Marxist ideology which has nurtured gender equality norms lost ground to the

traditional Chinese culture which endorses gender hierarchy (Cohen & Wang, 2008; Zuo & Bian,

2001).

With the rapid expansion of education over the last half a century in China, the gender

gap in education has narrowed dramatically. Chinese women’s college enrollment surpassed that

of males in recent years (Yeung, 2013). However, gains in education do not directly translate to

gains in the labor market. Since the economic reform and marketization in the 1980s, research

has shown that women are heavily concentrated in relatively low-paying sectors or in unpaid

labor such as agriculture and they face various forms of discrimination in the labor market (Cao

& Hu, 2007; Cohen & Wang, 2008; Zhang, 2002; Zhang, Hannum, & Wang, 2008). Facing the

deteriorating labor market and the “gender double standard of aging” (England & McClintock,

2009), China’s educated women may experience a double disadvantage in the areas of job and

mate search. It is hence important to investigate whether they delay or forgo marriage and to

what extent they do so. Whilst focusing on educated women, we should not ignore the challenges

that less or uneducated men may encounter in the marriage market. It is likely that less educated

and uneducated men will be most disadvantaged due to both the heavily skewed sex ratio in the

marriage market and the cultural norm of status hypergamy.

Universal, Early Marriage in China

In contrast to western societies and other East and Southeast Asian countries where there has

been a notable decline in marriage formation when women’s educational achievement increased

remarkably, marriage remains near universal in China till today (Jones & Gubhaju, 2009; Yeung


& Hu, 2013). Based on 2000 and 2005 data, Jones and Gubhaju (2009) show that about two

percent of women remain single at ages 30-34 in China and education only contributes

moderately to delayed marriage.

Distinct from many Western societies, given the weak social welfare system in

contemporary China and strong family values, Chinese young adults feel the pressure to

procreate to continue the family line and provide old age security. In addition, Chinese policy

stipulates that couples have to obtain birth license for childbearing and for the child to gain a

legal hukou status, on the condition that they are legally married. Marriage thus is the only

legitimate social institution for begetting a child in China. Many young Chinese men and women

feel tremendous social and family pressure to get married and to do so early to have a child soon

afterwards. In the context of early, near universal marriages in China, we expect college

education to delay both men’s and women’s marriage timing, but they will eventually get

married, rather than forgo marriage. Another unique context in China is the skewed sex ratio as a

result of the one-child policy launched in 1979. According to reports by the National Bureau of

Statistics of China (2011), the sex ratio at birth was 116.9 in 2000 and 118.6 in 2005. A

substantial number of men may be unable to find mates even though they may desire to get

married. We expect that less educated or uneducated men are at a disadvantaged position in the

marriage market, considering the fact that educated men are usually regarded as attractive mates.

It is important to investigate the interplay between gender and education in relation to marriage

formation at the local level.

Data and Methods

Sample and Measure


This study employs data from the 2005 one-percent Population Survey of China to calculate the

Singulate Mean Age of Marriage (SMAM). For our multivariate analysis, we draw data from a

random 20% sample of the 2005 one-percent Population Survey. We include individuals aged 30

years and above at the time of interview for the analysis on timing of marriage. We remove

3,766 respondents who were married but had a missing value on the age at marriage. In addition,

561 individuals are removed due to missing values in education and gender. The final analysis

sample is 1,483,104 individuals. For the Cox hazard model analysis, we further exclude 2,635

individuals who have missing values on the covariates in the model: hukou status, ethnicity,

migration, and family economic resources. Aware of the limitations of the cross-sectional nature

of the data and the restricted number of variables in the survey, we are thus cautious in making

any causal interpretations.

Timing of marriage is the dependent variable, measured in months. To explain the

variation in the timing of first marriage, we include variables at the individual, family, and

community levels in the model, with gender and education being the focal interest of this study.

Gender is coded as 1 if female and 0 if male. Education has four categories: no education, less

than high school, high school, and some college or above education, with no education as the

reference category. In the Cox proportional hazard models, we also control for age, hukou status,

ethnicity, migration, family economic resources, region, and provincial characteristics. Hukou

status is coded as 1 if urban and 0 if rural. Ethnicity is coded as 1 if Han and 0 if ethnic minority.

Migration is coded as 1 if the respondent was away from where his/her hukou was registered at

the time of the interview and 0 otherwise. The census data do not provide data for family

socioeconomic background. We create a crude index of family financial resources consisting of

three indicators: whether there is tap water and toilet in the house and whether the house is made


of concrete or mixed vs. other materials. Region is categorized as the East, Central and West,

with the East as the reference group. At the provincial level, we measure the percentage of

population with professional occupations to attempt to capture the community effect of the

socioeconomic development of the province.

Results

Marriage Prevalence: The Overall and Region Specific Patterns

On the whole, marriage is relatively early and near universal in China, but there is notable

regional heterogeneity. Table 1 shows SMAM by gender at the national and provincial levels.

Unfortunately, data for six provinces are not available for the province-specific level calculation.

However, these provinces are included in the calculation of SMAM for the entire nation. On

average, SMAM is 23.5 and 25.7 years old for women and men, respectively. The East provinces

tend to have later SMAM than the Central and West provinces. The capital city of China, Beijing,

in the East, has the highest SMAM, 25.8 and 27.6 years old for women and men, respectively.

Metropolitan Shanghai and Guangdong province, both in the East have slightly lower figures

than Beijing, 24.9 and 26.5, and 25.6 and 27.5, for men and women, respectively. All the Central

provinces for which we have data have similar SMAM, around 23 for women and 25 for men.

TABLE 1 NEAR HERE

In contrast, Ningxia, the Hui ethnic autonomous province in the West which is not necessarily

the economically least developed province, has the lowest SMAM, 22 for women and 24.2 for

men. This is consistent with our early discussion of its unique Muslim culture in relation to

marriage. We find a surprising pattern in Guangxi, the Zhuang ethnic autonomous province in


the West, as it emerges as an outlier with SMAM 24.3 for women and 27.5 for men, higher than

in many other economically more advanced provinces. A less pronounced case is Hainan, an

Eastern province with relatively high proportion of Li ethnic group but economically much less

advanced than other Eastern provinces, which also has relatively high SMAM, 24.4 for women

and 27.4 for men. We do not fully understand what factors shaped these marriage patterns. In the

case of Guangxi, it is likely that the low educational attainment of Zhuang men and the strong

patriarchal norms make it challenging for Zhuang men to find a marriage partner. The traditional

“delayed transfer marriage” may also be part of the story (Siu, 1990; Xu, 1983). However, ethnic

sub-culture may not be the only explanation for these patterns. In Guangxi, the Zhuang ethnic

group accounts for only about one third of the total population with the rest mostly being Han.

Guangxi is also a province with a high out-migration flow, with Guigang, Nanning, Qinzhou and

Liuzhou among the highest sending cities in the country, mostly to Guangdong. Thus, the high

age at first marriage observed in Guangxi is likely a result of a complex combination of

socioeconomic development, notably increased education and migration, and ethnic cultural

norms. Hainan has also experienced rapid socioeconomic transformation in recent years. We

know of little research on marriage patterns in Hainan to provide useful insight. Further

investigation is needed to understand the family formation behavior in these regions.

The last four columns of Table 1 show that the timing of first marriage varies across

regions. Overall, by age 30-34, only about 2% of women and 10% of men remain single, and

almost no women and about 5% of men remain so by age 35-39. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong

and Hainan in the East and Guangxi in the West lead the trend of late entry into marriage, with

more than 5% of women and between 12-20% of men remaining single at age 30-34; and at age

35-39, the proportion remaining single is highest for Beijing women (2.5%) and Guangxi men


(9.3%). The regional heterogeneity suggests that the pace to marriage formation is not linear with

regard to economic development or urbanization. It is thus important to understand the regional

customs and ethnic practices in the local context when studying marriage formation in China.

To further illustrate the variations in trajectory to marriage at different ages and the

ultimate marriage rates across China, we parsimoniously select four provinces from the three

regions: Beijing in the East, Henan in the Central and Ningxia and Guangxi in the West. Beijing,

the metropolitan area with the highest SMAM in China, has a population of about 20 million

with high levels of education and socioeconomic development. Henan, an agricultural province

with the SMAM close to the national average, is one of the most populous and largest migrant

sending provinces. Guangxi, the Zhuang ethnic autonomous province, with the highest SMAM

in the West, is an agricultural province in which the largest minority group in China, the Zhuang,

resides. Not least advanced in terms of socioeconomic development and educational level,

Ningxia, a Muslim Hui ethnic autonomous province located in the remote inland in Northwestern

China, has the lowest SMAM in the country based on the 2005 data.

Figure 1 shows Kaplan-Meier survival curves on the proportion of respondents remaining

single by age for the four provinces. Regional heterogeneity is noticeable, with Ningxia showing

the fastest pace to marriage entry: by ages 25, 30 and 35 there are 81%, 96% and 99% of

respondents respectively already married, with a similar pattern in Henan. In contrast, for

respondents from metropolitan Beijing, by age 25, 30 and 35 there are 56%, 90% and 96%

respectively already married. Beijing and Henan converge at age 35 and there is no noticeable

difference beyond that point, although Ningxia experiences a higher marriage rate as seen in

Figure 1.

FIGURE 1 NEAR HERE


Yet, for largely rural and ethnic concentrated Guangxi province, the survival curve

crosses over that of Beijing in the late twenties; about 66% of individuals are married by age 25,

89% by age 30, and 94% by age 35. This is remarkable in the near universal and early marriage

context in China. Considering its marginal status in terms of socioeconomic development and

geographic location in China, it is likely that many in Guangxi may face challenges if they have

not yet married by their late twenties. However, we cannot rule out the likelihood that these

people may have chosen to delay their marriage due to the rising education and migration in this

province noted earlier. The relatively late marriage entry and lower marriage prevalence in

Guangxi province could be partially due to a complex interplay between economic development

and cultural norms that we do not fully understand. The relatively early and high marriage rates

in Ningxia compared to other provinces could be partially attributed to the Muslim religious

tradition of the Hui ethnic group.

Marriage Prevalence: Interwoven Stories of Gender and Education

To understand the dynamics of marriage formation in each of the four provinces, we estimate

survival curves of proportion remaining single by education and gender for the above four

provinces in Figure 2. We use a dichotomous variable of education, those with some college vs.

those with less than some college education. For Henan and Guangxi provinces, as college

graduates are only a small minority, we also dichotomize education as high school and above vs.

less than high school education. The survival curve patterns are almost identical to those based

on the education coding of some college vs. less than some college education in Figure 2. Results

are thus not presented here but available on request.

FIGURE 2 NEAR HERE


The common patterns among the four provinces are that marriage is still close to

universal and much earlier than in other East Asian and Western countries; this is more so for

women with low or no education and less so for men with low or no education. Eventually

college graduates, both men and women, do get married. Although college education does delay

marriage formation for men and women in their twenties, they catch up in their late twenties and

early thirties. This is shown in the crossover of survival curves of college educated men and

women and that of less educated men. A more notable pattern is the poorly educated or

uneducated women in Beijing who marry early and have higher marriage rates than others, and

the poorly educated or uneducated men in Henan and Guangxi who marry later beyond the late

twenties and eventually have lower rates of marriage than others. Ningxia witnesses a

convergence of all four groups in their 30s.

Marriage Timing: Interwoven Stories of Gender and Education

Table 2 and Figure 3 summarize the results from the Cox proportional hazard models that

examine the interaction effects between gender and education on marriage timing for the national

sample and for the four selected provinces. We group education into four categories: no

education, less than high school, high school and some college or above education. For the whole

country (first column in Table 2), the youngest cohort tends to marry later than other cohorts.

Those with an urban hukou have a hazard of marrying 20% lower than those with a rural hukou.

Current migrants have a slightly lower hazard of marrying. Those in the West and Central have a

hazard of marrying more than 10% higher than those in the East. However, ethnicity and family

economic resources do not differentiate individuals in terms of marriage timing. It is likely that


regional difference has captured variations in these variables because they tend to have effects in

the province specific models (in columns 2-5).

TABLE 2 NEAR HERE

In addition, there is a highly significant interaction between education and gender on

timing of marriage. Figure 3 presents hazards for men and women of different levels of

education. Consistent with our expectation, women with no education marry at the earliest age;

whereas, men with no education marry the latest. Women of all educational levels marry earlier

than their male counterparts. The effect on men is more nuanced. Men with no education have

lower hazards of marrying than other men. Yet, among educated men, college graduates have

lower marriage hazards than those with less education. Hence, college education delays both

men’s and women’s marriage formation, but the effect is much stronger for women. In contrast,

having no education massively accelerates women’s marriage entry, but postpones that of men.

FIGURE 3 NEAR HERE

We estimate the same Cox proportional hazard models to examine the interaction

between gender and education on timing of marriage for the four selected provinces. Columns 2

to 5 in Table 2 all show significant interactions between gender and education. To better

illustrate the effects, hazards of the eight education-by-gender groups are shown in Figure 4.

Overall, uneducated men have the lowest hazards of marrying among all the eight social groups;

uneducated women have the highest hazards of marrying. A common pattern across the four

provinces is that education is negatively related to marriage timing for women, women marry

earlier than men with equivalent education. There are more heterogeneities in education effects

on men’s marriage. Uneducated men have lower hazards of marriage than educated men

regardless of their educational attainment; yet, among educated men, college graduates have


lower hazards of marriage than their less educated counterparts. Similar to Figure 3, uneducated

men are still the most disadvantaged on the marriage market.

FIGURE 4 NEAR HERE

In Beijing, women with no education have the hazard of marrying almost 7 times that of

men with no education. The massive effect of no education on women’s marriage timing may be

due to Beijing having the lowest proportion of uneducated women among all regions in China

(calculated from the data of this study). According to the norm of status hypergamy, these

women have a much larger pool of potential male partners in the marriage market. Educated men

in general have higher hazards of marriage than men with no education. The disadvantaged

status of men with no education in the marriage market still holds for the provinces of Henan,

Guangxi and Ningxia; the disadvantage being most pronounced in Henan, one of the most

populous provinces that send millions of migrant workers to the coastal and metropolitan areas.

Yet, the education effect on men’s marriage timing in these three provinces is less pronounced

than that in Beijing and variations among college educated men are trivial, particularly for the

two ethnic autonomous provinces, Guangxi and Ningxia.

Discussion and Conclusion

Using the 2005 one-percent Population Survey and a random sample of the survey, this study

illustrates geographic heterogeneity in marriage formation in China with a focus on four regions.

Near universal and early marriage largely remains true in contemporary China. Yet regional

variations in marriage prevalence are notable and more prominent at younger ages of the

twenties, but they converge fast after age 30. The East metropolitan areas witness a slower pace

to marriage entry than in other places. Provinces with more ethnic minorities seem to show more


heterogeneity in marriage formation. For example, Ningxia, the Hui ethnic autonomous region,

has the earliest SMAM, whereas Guangxi, the Zhuang ethnic autonomous region, and Hainan

province with a relatively high concentration of the Li ethnic group have relatively high SMAM.

Guangxi has the latest age at marriage for men in the country. This is a puzzling finding that we

do not fully understand. We speculate that it could have to do with the ethnic minority group

finding it a challenge to negotiate their traditional norms of marriage and gender roles in a

rapidly changing society in which education attainment and migration are on the rise, which may

make it harder to find a marriage partner.

As noted, variations in marriage formation prevalence and timing do not strictly fit

economic development stages. Local cultural norms, ethnic traditions, and religious practices are

important factors in understanding regional variations in marriage formation in China. Migration

may also play a critical role in shaping family formation patterns in modern China. For future

studies, it is important to develop contextually specific hypotheses and to collect related

measures to better understand regional heterogeneities in marriage formation. It is also important

to investigate how these cultural variations intertwine with different levels of economic

development and urbanization in the local context.

Gender and education largely differentiate men’s and women’s marriage formation in the

fashion that we had expected. Although higher education tends to delay both men and women’s

marriage formation with the effect stronger for women, most college graduates do not forgo

marriage. However, men with less or no education not only postpone marriage, but also have

difficulty in finding mates.

Women with less or no education and college graduated women and men eventually get

married after age 30. Men with less or no education have lower marriage rates as they grow older.


With respect to marriage timing, education postpones women’s marriage, but college education

delays both men and women’s marriage. Men with no education have the lowest hazards of

marriage. Educated men marry later than men with no education; and college educated men

marry later than moderately educated men.

Based on the 2005 data, we show that although college educated women have the latest

marriage age almost all of them ultimately get married, even in Beijing. Hence, the so-called

“leftover” women issue does not have much empirical basis then. Female college graduates may

delay marriage formation for career development as they are faced with increasing

discrimination in the job market in recent decades. At the same time, they can also afford to

spend more time searching for a compatible mate compared to less educated women, due to their

relatively favorable financial situation. However, constrained by the social norm of status

hypergamy and “gender double standard of aging”, they may face more challenges in searching

for a mate than their male counterparts. Nonetheless, evidence shows that most eventually marry

by age 35.

As higher education continues to expand, it is likely that more Chinese women will

further postpone their marriage formation. As late marriage becomes more socially acceptable, it

is difficult to predict to what extent Chinese women will eventually forgo marriage in the future,

a pattern that can be observed in societies such as Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Chinese women who choose to remain single voluntarily may continue to be derogated by the

society as “leftover” women. It is urgent for the public and policy makers to promote gender

egalitarian ideology and respect women’s choice in relation to marriage formation.

A severe challenge falls upon men with less or no education. The social norm of status

hypergamy and the severely skewed sex ratio have produced a double whammy for these men,


particularly those living in remote, rural areas. Studies have estimated that the excess males in

China will continue to increase in the next two to three decades, reaching 30 to 50 million, and

cause a severe marriage squeeze for males (Chen, 2004; Huang, forthcoming; Poston, Conde, &

DeSalvo, 2011). With the continuing expansion of higher education and a massive excess of

young men coming to marriage age, the issue of “leftover” men will become much more severe.

Therefore, the context of universal marriage in China will transform into a context of involuntary

singlehood for many men. But this will not necessarily result in less marriage for poorly

educated women because the pool of “surplus” men with higher levels of education will also be

growing. Following the social norm of hypergamy, these women can always marry men of

similar or better education. This is thus different from the case in the United States, where some

lower educated women cannot find marriageable men due to the deterioration of poorly educated

men’s labor market situation. Policy makers should consider measures to raise educational

attainment and improve employment opportunities for these disadvantaged men as well as to

introduce policies that facilitate marrying foreign brides if these men desire to do so.

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Table 1. Singulate Mean Age at Marriage (SMAM) in China, for the Entire Country and by Province, in 2005

SMAM % single by age 30-34 % single by age 35-39

Female Male Female Male Female Male Entire Nation 23.5 25.7 2.1 9.7 0.7 4.8 East

Beijing 25.8 27.6 6.4 13.9 2.5 5.9 Hebei 23.2 24 1.3 5.6 0.4 3.9 Liaoning 23.7 25.7 3.3 9.6 1.1 4.8 Shanghai 24.9 26.5 5.4 12.4 1.9 6.4 Jiangsu 23 24.6 1.1 5.1 0.4 3.3 Zhejiang 23.4 25.9 1.5 8.7 0.5 4.7 Fujian 23.8 26.8 2.0 9.7 0.7 4.4 Shandong 24.1 24.6 1.2 5.8 0.3 3.8 Guangdong 25.6 27.5 5.6 13.6 1.9 5.6 Hainan 24.4 27.4 5.8 19.5 1.7 9.1 Central

Heilongjiang 23 25.2 1.9 8.9 0.7 4.1 Anhui 22.7 24.7 0.9 7.1 0.3 4 Jiangxi 22.6 25.8 1.2 8.8 0.3 3.5 Henan 23.5 24.7 1.2 6.8 0.2 3.8 West

Inner Mongolia 23 25 1.4 7.9 0.5 4.8 Guangxi 24.3 27.5 4.2 18.2 1.1 9.3 Chongqing 22.9 25.7 1.6 11.6 0.4 5.7 Sichuan 22.4 25.1 1.7 11.3 0.6 5.9 Guizhou 22.3 25.7 1.6 11.4 0.4 5.2 Shannxi 23.1 25.7 1.1 9.5 0.3 5 Gansu 22.8 25.5 1.3 9.6 0.4 5.1 Qinghai 22 25.2 3.2 11.6 1.3 5.7 Ningxia 22 24.2 1.3 4.7 0.5 2.2 Xinjiang 22.4 25.6 3.1 11.0 1 3.6 Source: 2005 one-percent Population Survey

Note: Data for Tianjin, Shanxi, Jilin, Hubei, Hunan, Yunnan, Tibet are not available for the province-specific calculation. However, data for these provinces are included in the calculation of the SMAM for the entire nation.

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Data from 2005 Mini-Census, China

Figure 1. Proportion of Respondents Remaining Single for Selected Provinces in 2005

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Figure 2. Proportion of respondents remaining single by gender and education for selected provinces

Table 2. Hazards of First Marriage for Respondents 30 Years and Older Variables China Beijing Henan Guangxi Ningxia Gender (Female=1) 3.730*** 6.964*** 3.547*** 2.996*** 3.764*** -(0.155) -(0.783) -(0.133) -(0.151) -(0.230) Education (ref = No Education)

< High School 1.524*** 2.077*** 1.778*** 1.266*** 1.367*** -(0.050) -(0.192) -(0.059) -(0.057) -(0.063) High School 1.525*** 1.696*** 1.823*** 1.327*** 1.281*** -(0.054) -(0.159) -(0.065) -(0.064) -(0.069) College 1.312*** 1.342** 1.486*** 1.138** 1.217*** -(0.047) -(0.126) -(0.056) -(0.057) -(0.068) Interaction between Female and Education

< High School 0.514*** 0.248*** 0.436*** 0.661*** 0.556*** -(0.024) -(0.028) -(0.017) -(0.034) -(0.036) High School 0.362*** 0.220*** 0.331*** 0.460*** 0.399*** -(0.016) -(0.025) -(0.014) -(0.026) -(0.028) College 0.351*** 0.207*** 0.347*** 0.445*** 0.345*** -(0.014) -(0.024) -(0.016) -(0.028) -(0.025) Age Cohort (Ref = 30-35) 35-40 1.171*** 1.168*** 1.225*** 1.221*** 1.081** -(0.015) -(0.030) -(0.018) -(0.024) -(0.032) 40-45 1.234*** 1.342*** 1.245*** 1.416*** 1.256*** -(0.024) -(0.034) -(0.019) -(0.029) -(0.042) 45-50 1.016 1.139*** 0.947*** 1.265*** 1.070* -(0.025) -(0.027) -(0.015) -(0.025) -(0.036) >=50 1.152*** 1.166*** 1.076*** 1.220*** 1.358*** -(0.028) -(0.026) -(0.015) -(0.020) -(0.043) Hukou status (Urban=1) 0.792*** 0.739*** 0.837*** 0.794*** 0.767*** -(0.017) -(0.017) -(0.012) -(0.014) -(0.025) Ethnicity (Han=1) 1.076 1.079* 1.051 0.923*** 0.766*** -(0.053) -(0.038) -(0.043) -(0.011) -(0.020) Migration (Current Migrants=1) 0.950*** 0.998 0.942** 0.937** 0.952+ -(0.011) -(0.015) -(0.017) -(0.019) -(0.028) Family Financial Resources 0.994 0.986 0.976*** 1.053*** 0.929*** -(0.008) -(0.010) -(0.006) -(0.007) -(0.012) Region (ref = East) Central 1.159** -(0.056) West 1.126*

-(0.067)

Provincial Characteristics

% Professional occupation 0.995 -(0.003) Observations 1,479,513 27,347 51,719 35,900 12,403 *** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05, + p<0.1

Figure3. Hazards of first marriage by gender and education, aged 30 and older in 2005

Figure 4. Hazards of first marriage by gender and education, aged 30 and older in 2005

Heterogeneity in Contemporary Chinese Marriage

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