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Powering Durable Brands
Sector: Consumer Durables
Price performance
Target Price:
CMPPotential Upside
MARKET DATA
No. of Shares (Cr)
Market Cap (Rs Cr)
Free Float
Avg. daily vol (6mth)
52-w High / Low
Bloomberg
Promoter holding
FII / DII
16 OCT 2019 Company Report
BuyRs 3,649
: Rs. 3,005: 21%
: 1.13
: Rs. 3,395
: 56%
: 6526
: 3230/1831
: DIXON IN
: 38.92%
: 7.23%/ 22.38 %
Shareholding patternFinancial Summary (Consolidated)
Source: Company, Axis Securities CMP as on Oct 16, 2019
Y/EMarch
Net Sales(Rs Cr)
EBITDA(Rs Cr)
PAT (Rs Cr)
EPS (Rs)
Change (%)
P/E(x)
RoE (%)
Core RoCE(%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY18 2,853 112 61 54.8 26.5 61.1 23.7 34.9 32.8
FY19 2,984 135 63 55.9 2.1 42.1 18.2 27.4 19.5
FY20E 3,868 181 98 86.6 54.7 34.7 22.9 28.6 18.6
FY21E 4,754 227 129 114.0 31.7 26.4 24.0 30.4 14.5
Jun-19 Q-o-Q Chg
Promoters 38.92 (0.01)
FIIs 7.23 1.19
MFs / UTI 22.29 (1.43)
Banks / FIs 0.09 0.05
Others 31.47 0.2
Hiren Trivedi - CM Research| [email protected] | (+91 22 4267 1759)
Dixon Technologies
40
80
120
Jul-18 Dec-18 May-19 Oct-19
BSE Sensex Dixon Technolog.
3
Investment Rationale
Dixon Technologies (Dixon) is a leading manufacturer of products for consumer durable brands in India. It has ~9.3% share inElectronic Manufacturing Services providing cost efficient, end to end solutions to MNC’s and domestic OEM’s. Dixon’s productsinclude (i)consumer electronics - LED TVs, (ii) home appliances - Washing Machines, (iii) lighting products - LED bulbs (iv) mobilephones and (v) CCTV & DVR. The company also provides repairs and refurbishment services through its Reverse logistics segment.
Dixon is a leading player in Flat Panel Display (FPD) TV with 50%+ market share; in LED Lighting it accounts for ~35%+ domesticvolumes and commands 40%+ share in the Washing Machines EMS market. Its key customers include Panasonic, Philips LightingIndia, Xiaomi, Samsung, Flipkart, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Lloyds, Haier, Reliance Retail, Wipro, Syska, Polycaband Bajaj Electricals.
Company Report
Sector: Consumer Durables
Dixon Technologies
16 OCT 2019
* OEM / OEM – Original Equipment Manufacturer / Original Design Manufacturer | EMS – Electronic Manufacturing Services
We initiate coverage with “BUY” rating and a target price of Rs 3,649 i.e. 21% upside (implies 32x FY21E)
Increasing EMS opportunities
across segments and higher
share of ODM revenues
Faster adoption of consumer
durables by younger population
propelled by increase in
disposable income
Strong growth led by backward
integrated cost effective
manufacturing and diverse
product offerings
Higher contribution from
FPD TV, Lighting & Washing
Machines segments; recovery in
Mobiles and strong growth in
Security Systems
We expect revenues/earnings to grow at CAGR of 26% / 42.8% respectively over FY19-21E driven by
4
Investment Rationale
Indian CEA (Consumer Electronics and Appliances) market is expected to grow at a faster pace of ~19% CAGR between FY19-21E while
the global CEA market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~8% between FY18-24E
Global *EMS/^ODM market is expected to grow at CAGR of 8.5% between FY19-21E, while India’s EMS/ODM segment is expected to
grow at 32.4% CAGR in the same period as many OEM’s outsource their manufacturing requirements in line with their strategy of keeping
asset light business model
High growth in consumer electronics and increasing EMS presents a huge opportunity for players like Dixon
Higher growth in global and domestic CEA market
Dixon, a cost efficient solution provider and a leader in ODM segment is well equipped to capitalize on rising OEM’s demand for ODM
Company’s ODM share increased from ~15% in FY17 to 38% in FY19 owing to its focus on developing value added products for its
customers (20+ ODM products developed)
ODM business fetches ~200-300 bps higher margins than OEM business; EBITDA Margins expanded by 92 bps over FY17-FY19
In Home Appliances ODM share continues to be 100%, in lighting its ODM revenue stood at 71% (vs. 40% in FY18), and Consumer
Electronics ODM share is 9% (vs. 6% in FY18) which is likely to improve further as Dixon has converted large customer Panasonic from
prescriptive mode to ODM mode
Increasing trend towards ODM manufacturing augur well for Dixon
Company Report
Sector: Consumer Durables
Dixon Technologies
16 OCT 2019
^ODM =Original Design Manufacturer |*EMS – Electronic Manufacturing Services
5
Investment Rationale
Company Report
Sector: Consumer Durables
Dixon Technologies
16 OCT 2019
Local manufacturing to get a boost from Government steps to promote India as hub for innovation, design and manufacturing
Setting up port-based electronic manufacturing clusters to support local manufacturing and exports
Governments thrust on Electricity For All is expected to provide an impetus for increasing demand for consumer durables in rural and semi-
urban areas
Government push for energy efficient products via Domestic Efficient Lighting Programme (DELP), UJALA have resulted in higher demand
for lighting segment
The recent customs duty increase on CCTV cameras/DVR’s to 20% from 15% will promote local manufacturing and discourage imports
Governmental thrust on domestic manufacturing
Developed capability in manufacturing critical components, thereby strengthening relationship with customers
Reduced dependency on third party suppliers leading to cost efficiencies
Increased number of product offerings within key segments like LED lighting, washing machines and FPD TV
Ability to provide value added ODM solutions to clients, thus leading to improved margins in key segments
Backward integration- improving cost efficiencies & enhancing product offerings
6
Investment Rationale…
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Dixon has strong relationship with existing customers, for e.g. half-a decade with Panasonic, almost 10 years with Philips
Similar to global EMS peers Dixon derives higher revenue share from anchor customers, however its constant endeavour is to acquire new
customers through new segments and increase offerings within existing segments (e.g. in Lighting segment its anchor customer Philips now
contributes ~45% to the segment revenues vs. ~90% earlier)
Recent client additions (during FY19) include Xiaomi, Panasonic-Anchor, Syska, Samsung, Flipkart, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals,
Lloyds, Wipro
Strong client relationships, Acquisition of new customers
India’s labour cost at $1.7/hour is almost half vis-à-vis China at $3.3/hour making India an attractive manufacturing destination
China is witnessing sharp increase in labour cost as workers focus on highly skilled jobs resulting in lack of manpower at low end of
manufacturing value chain
Indian manufacturing costs to moderate due to economies of scale, government support (SLNP, Customs duty, Subsidies) and availability of
skilled & semi-skilled manpower
Cost advantage over China
7
Investment Rationale…
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Dixon is a leading player in Flat Panel Display (FPD) TV with 50%+ market share, in LED Lighting it accounts for ~35%+ domestic volumes
and commands 40%+ share in the Washing Machines EMS market.
Proximity of manufacturing plants to OEM’s, end to end services including ODM solutions, cost efficient production along with reverse
logistics has led to Dixon becoming a preferred EMS partner with strong client relationships
Key customers include Panasonic, Philips Lighting India, Xiaomi, Samsung, Flipkart, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Lloyds, Haier,
Reliance Retail, Wipro, Syska, Polycab and Bajaj Electricals
Leading EMS solutions provider
Optimum utilisation of assets :Flexible manufacturing lines with standardised equipment used for diverse products has led Dixon to derive
benefits of scale while remaining asset light leading to cost efficiencies
Lean working capital : Dixon has maintained lean working capital despite increasing product offerings within segments and addition of new
product segments due to efficient inventory management and favourable credit terms from suppliers
New client addition along with capex and expenditure related to ramp up in capacities to led to stretching of working capital in FY19
Improved collections and efficient inventory management along with asset light nature of the business will allow Dixon to maintain lean
working capital days going forward
Cost efficient manufacturing with lean working capital management
8
Higher growth opportunity led by strong domestic CEA market
Growth of Indian CEA market
Source: Company, Axis Securities
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Global demand for consumer electronics goods is set to grow
due to:
Innovative product offerings leading to faster replacement
of consumer goods
Adoption of smart technologies integrated into the product
Proliferation of e-commerce
The global consumer electronics market was valued at $
1,172 bn in 2017 as per Zion Market Research, is expected
to touch $1,787 bn by 2024 at CAGR of 6%.
Global consumer electronics growth is expected to be driven
by increasing demand from Smartphone, Television, DVD
Players, Refrigerators, Washing Machines, Digital Cameras,
and Hard Disk Drives
Indian CEA market grew at CAGR of ~14% between FY13-
FY19, is expected to grow faster at CAGR of 19% between
FY19-21E, from Rs 4,178 bn in FY2019 to Rs 5,940 bn in
FY2021E due to
Increasing working population
Early adoption of consumer goods
Easy availability of finance
Indian CEA market to grow at faster pace
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20E
FY21E
Total CEA Market Consumer Electronics Appliances
(Rs
bn)
9
Indian EMS/ODM growth to outpace Global EMS/ODM growth
Global EMS/ODM market to grow at CAGR of 8.5% between
FY19-21E led by OEM’s focus on :
Differentiation via new product innovation
Brand building
Marketing and distribution
Global EMS market growth will be driven by higher electronics
consumption by end user industries like IT & Telecom, Consumer
Electronics, Automotive, Healthcare and Industrial.
Top categories that are expected to drive Indian EMS segment
are Mobile phones, Telecom, Consumer electronics and
Appliances
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Global EMS/ODM Market by Value
Source: Company, Axis Securities
Indian EMS/ODM Market by Value
436 444 455 478 502 532569
615670
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
FY1
3
FY1
4
FY1
5
FY1
6
FY1
7
FY1
8
FY1
9
FY2
0
FY2
1
OEM’s preference for strategic tie-up with EMS players like
Dixon to meet domestic demands will lead Indian EMS/ODM
market to grow at robust 32.4% during FY19-21E
India’s EMS market is just 0.6% of the global EMS market and
is expected to reach 1.6% by CY2021, aided by Rising per capita income and affluent middle class
Increasing nuclear families
Enhanced features and availability of finance leading to early
adoption of consumer electronics
Make In India thrust
Subsidies and incentives by central/state governments
Rationalisation of duties and taxes
1.4 1.6 1.9 2.23.0
3.84.7
6.1
8.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
FY1
3
FY1
4
FY1
5
FY1
6
FY1
7
FY1
8
FY1
9
FY2
0
FY2
1
Dixon being the 2nd largest EMS company to benefit from robust growth in domestic EMS demand
($ b
n)
($ b
n)
10
Enhancing capabilities through backward integration
Segment Backward Integration Advantage - Dixon
Home Appliances( Washing Machines)
Plastic moulding, panels, control table, twin tubs, Motors
Increased capacity will caterto 33% of the Indian Marketrequirement, Value Addition
Lighting ( LED bulbs, battens )
Sheet metal, plastic moulding and wound components
Increased ODM share to 90%, led to customer additions, enabled providing end to end solutions
Consumer Electronics (FPD TV's)
Backlight units, plastic moulding, circuits, LCM, SMT
Became largest LED TV Mfg in India, capacity can cater to 26% of Indian market needs, Improvement in Margins
Mobile Phones ( Feature & Smart phones)
PCB ManufacturingCritical components thatcontributes to ~50% of the value addition in a phone
16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
1994 2007 2008 2010 2010 2016
Colour TV
LCD TV LED TV
CCTV, Digital Video Recorder
CFL Lighting, Reverse logistics
Mobile Phones
Washing Machines
2017
Company Report
Segments Key Products offerings
Consumer Electronics LED TV’s–19’’to 65’’& 4K2K technology, Home Theatres– 2.1& 4.1channel, FPD, Smart TVs
Lighting Products LED Lights, Ballast, Tube lights, Batten, Down lighters, CFL/LED Drivers
Home Appliances Semi-automatic washing machine ranging from 6.2kg to 8.2kg
Mobile Phones Feature & smart phones (2G, 3G, 4G/LTE, VoLTE & CDMA)
Security Systems CCTV Cameras, DVRs
Reverse LogisticsRepair –mobile phones, LCD/LED TVs, LED panel, home theatre, computer peripherals and other devices
Sector: Consumer Durables
Strategic product portfolio diversification
11
Dixon’s manufacturing strength in key segments
30%
30%
30%
10%
Circuit Plastics LED Others
12%
11%
9%
56%
12%
Circuit Plastics BLU LED Glass Others
50%
25%
5%
10%
10%
Plastic Parts Electronic motor Gear Box Timers Others
Imported/Domestic
Dixon
Imported
DixonDomestic
Imported
Dixon
Domestic/Imported
Dixon manufactures majority of end product components
in-house :
60% of LED Lamps (components like Circuits & Plastic moulded parts)
50% of Washing Machines
32% of LED TV’s
Dixon is able to offer cost effective solutions due to:
Backward Integrated manufacturing
Flexible manufacturing lines used for diverse products with
standardised equipment
Economies of scale
Availability of skilled man power
LED Lamps LED TVSemi Automatic
WashingMachines
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
12
Well diversified leading EMS player
LED TVsWashing Machine
Lighting products
Mobile
Dixon Tech High High High Medium
ELIN India - - Low -
MEPL Low
DetlaLight - - Medium -
Opetiemus - - - High
NTL electronics
- - Medium -
Noble Low Medium - -
Videotex Medium - - -
Vimal Plast - Low - -
Key EMS players and their offerings
Level of diversification – Dixon vs. Peers
Companies OfferingsFocus &
CompetenceProducts
Global companies
Jabil, Foxconn, Flex , Sanmina , Wistron
S/w Develop, product design,
prototyping, SMT, PCBA, logistics
Global & Indian market - technical -High Value add
products
Mobiles, Set top Boxes, Telecom solutions, PC's,
Desktops
Large Indian Companies
NTL, SFO Techno., ELIN , PG Group, Kaynes, Dixon
H/w design, S/w develop, assembly,
prototyping & testing
Domestic market -Value add products
Mobile, Lighting Products, Medical
& Defence, WM,FPD TV’s
Small Indian Companies
SGS Tekniks, Amara Raja Electronics, HicalTech
Sheet metal, plastic moulding,
transformers
Local markets & exports
-Low value products
LED Lighting , medical electronics,
HUPS systems, inverters
Company Report
SegmentEMS Market
Share
Consumer Electronics (FPD TV's) 50% +
Lighting (LED Lights - volumes) 35%+
Home Appliances (Semi Automatic Washing Machines) 40%+
Dixon’s market leadership in key segments
Dixon’s leadership in key segments stems from integrated manufacturing capabilities across its business segments.
Dixon Technologies
Source: Company, Axis Securities
16 OCT 2019
Sector: Consumer Durables
13
Governmental thrust on Domestic Manufacturing
*M-SIPS: capital subsidy of 20% in SEZ (25%-non SEZ areas) Electronics manufacturing clusters: Financial assistance of up to
50% and 75% of project cost for setting manufacturing clusters Preferential market access: government to prefer domestically
manufactured products Phased Manufacturing program: Government providing tax
reliefs and rationalisation of customs duty National Policy on Electronics - $400 bn turnover in domestic
electronics manufacturing by CY2025 Promote EMS activities such as engineering and design of
PCBs, PCB assembly
India is among the top 10 countries globally, showingimprovement in World Bank’s ease of doing business indexjumping 23 notches to 77th place in 2019
FDI inflows in electronics in India increased 2.3X in 2018-19 at$ 451.9 mn vs.$196.9 mn in 2017-18 led by initiatives like
100% FDI in Electronics Systems design & manufacturing sector -automatic route
100% FDI In contract manufacturing -automatic route
With energy saving as objective, under #SNLP over 85.67 lakh
street lights in 1400 cities across India have been replaced as
of July 2019 – aim to replace 1.34 cr street lights
Under ^UJALA scheme total 34.76 crore LEDs distributed to
rural households through EESL –target of 77 cr LED lights to be
distributed going forward
Subsidies, incentives led to reduction in price of 9W led bulb to
~Rs 70 vs Rs 160 thus prompting higher adoption aided by
power for all initiative of government
Cut in duty of Open Cell to 0% from 5% - to promote local
manufacturing of LED TV’s
Customs duty hike on Washing Machines (less than 10 kg) from
10% to 20% will make domestic production competitive
Customs duty increase on CCTV cameras/DVR’s to 20% from
15%, will promote local manufacturing and discourage imports
Reduction of Corporate Tax rate to 22% (15% for new units)
*Modified Special Incentive Package Scheme(M-SIPS) ^ UJALA- Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All,#SLNP - Street Light National Programme
Make In India Ease of doing business - Aiding FDI Inflows
Led Lighting – lighting up manufacturing in India Rationalization of duties & taxes – a shot in the arm
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Local production +demand generation+ attracting capital = Growing opportunities for Dixon
14
Indian manufacturing costs to moderate due to economies ofscale, government support (SLNP, Customs duty, Subsidies)
China’s salaries, since 2013 have risen between 21% to 41% inits manufacturing hubs and expected to increase further dueworker’s preference for hi-tech jobs
India is better placed to attract OEM’s as China’s cost to rise dueto withdrawal of subsidies, shift to higher level jobs and higherrate of increase in labour costs
Low cost of production in India will incentivize brands tomanufacture locally/depend on domestic manufacturers
Dixon is well placed to cater to brands being an end-to-end costefficient solutions provider in FPD TV’s, LED Lamps & WashingMachines segment
Labour cost advantage to aid local manufacturing
Source: Deloitte Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index 2016 ,National Bureau of Statistics China, Company , Axis Securities.,*LOH = Labour & Overheads
India’s labour cost is among lowest in the world
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Labour and Overheads cost differentials favour manufacturing in India
12% 12.5% 13%13%
16.5%
19%
0
5
10
15
20
FY14 FY17 FY21E
India China
Increasing Average Manufacturing wages in China
26
,59
9
30
,70
0
36
,66
5
41
,650
46
,43
1
51
,36
9
55
,32
4
59
,47
0
64
,45
2
72
,08
8
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
38.040.5
24.020.7
9.4
3.3 1.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
US Germany Japan S.Korea Taiwan China India
*LO
H a
s %
of
tota
l cos
t(U
SD
/hr
)
(CN
Y/Yea
r)
15
Lower Penetration & Low localization –huge opportunity
Source: Company, Axis Securities
Penetration of Consumer Durables
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Localization levels in appliances
Huge potential for higher penetration
Government’s thrust on Electricity For All is expected to provide an
impetus for increasing demand in rural and semi-urban areas
Easy availability of credit, increasing urbanisation, will lead to higher
demand
TV industry in India is estimated to grow from Rs 660 bn in CY2017 to
reach Rs 862 bn in CY2020
Dixon has the largest TV manufacturing capacity in India at 36 lakh TV
sets per anum
Large opportunity for EMS players like Dixon in under penetrated
segments like Washing Machines (60% scope) and FPD TV’s (~30%
scope)
Increased scope for localization
Rising cost of imports (increased customs duties) to push brands to
increase their localization content to fulfil growing demand for consumer
goods
Lower cost, end to end solutions, innovative product offerings, value
added aftermarket services to aid higher localization
Dixon better placed than peers to capitalize on growing localization
needs of customers due to
Leading EMS manufacturer in three segments
Fungible manufacturing capabilities across segments
Fully backward integrated facility
Strong R&D capabilities to offer innovative value added solutions
10%
60%
4%
17% 20%
70%
89%
30% 25%
85%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
WashingMachine
FPD TV Room AC Air Cooler Refrigerator
India Global
30
35
10
70
35
70
65
90
30
65
0 20 40 60 80 100
Refrigetaor
Residential ACs
Air Coolers
FPD TV
Washing Machine
Localisation levels in Appliances Import
16
Rising affluence - driver of increasing consumption
Source: BCG Centre for Customer Insight
Increasing per capita income leading to higher discretionary spends
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Key Drivers of Demand
65% of the consumer durables demand comes from first time
buyers as per industry reports
Rising affluent middle class population is estimated to form ~69%
of total population by 2020
Changing lifestyle causing early adoption of white goods in young
population, a strong demand generator
Increasing Per Capita Income in India leading to higher spends on
aspirational goods including consumer durables like FPD TV’s,
Washing Machines and Mobile phones
Elite and affluent households—will becomethe largest combined segment by 2025,accounting for 40% of consumptioncompared with 27% in 2016
The number of cities having greater than40% elite and affluent households willincrease to 48 in 2025 (vs. Nil in 2016)while cities having 21-40% elite and affluenthouseholds will increase to 270 in 2025( vs. 64 in 2016)
Wide spread affluence to drive consumer spending across India
1,6
10
1,6
40
1,7
62
2,0
14
2,0
36
2,1
99
2,3
79
2,5
78
2,7
91
3,0
23
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
CY 14 CY 15 CY 16 CY 17 CY 18 CY 19E CY 20E CY 21E CY 22E CY 23E
(In
USD
)
Source: IMF
17
Company Profile
Dixon Technologies started manufacturing operations in the year 1994with production of colour TVs
Has over the years evolved into fully integrated end-to-end product andsolution provider to OEM’s ranging from global sourcing,manufacturing, quality testing and packaging to logistics
Diversified into 5 segments like LED TV, Smart TV, LED bulbs & Tubelights, down lighters, Semi-Automatic Washing machines, Featurephones & Smart Phones, CCTV camera’s & DVR’s, with various offeringsin each segment
Dixon has 10 state of the art manufacturing facilities supported by 3R&D centres (2 in India and 1 in China) that focus on value addition toits products
Strategic location of plants: Near customer’s facility ensuring prompt response to clients manufacturing
requirements In proximity to Chennai & Krishnapatman ports - ability to cater to South East
Asian markets through exports Having flexible and cost efficient manufacturing capabilities with
availability of skilled and unskilled manpower
Head OfficeManufacturing Units
Noida (4 Units)
Dehradun (4 Units)
Tirupati (2 Units)
16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Company Report
Plant Location Products manufactured currently Year Estb
Noida-I LED bulbs, LED drivers, PCB assembly of Airconditionals 1996
Noida-II Mobile phones 2016
Noida-III Reverse logistics, LED Bulbs 2009
Noida-IV LED bulbs and parts 2009
Dehradun - I facility LED bulbs, Battens, T-LEDs, Down Lighter, Ballast, etc. 2007
Dehradun - II facility Semi -automatic washing machines 2010
Dehradun - III facility Backward integration of plastic parts,Sheet metal components
2009
Dehradun -IV facility Washing Machines 2018
Tirupati LED TVs; Security systems (CCTVs, DVRs) 2017
Focus on making Tirupati a mother plant
Area 12 acres, 2 lakh sq feet construction space
Focus Product & Geographical expansion
Benefits SGST exemption for 8 years (refund method) Subsidies on land rent, electricity & water Proximity to Chennai port ( ~ 136 kms)
Products LED TV’s; Dixon expanded capacity from 2.4 mn to 3.4 mn p.a CCTV’s capacity 6 lakh per month DVR’s capacity 1.5 lakh per month
Planned Expansion
Fully Automatic Washing Machine line with 5 lakh units annually
Source: Company, Axis Securities
18
Management Team
♦ Has more than 2 decades of experience in the EMS industry. He has held positions like chairman of the
Electronics and Computer Software Export Promotion Council of India and Co-Chair of the CII ICTE
Committee. He is currently the vice president of CEAMA
Sunil Vachani, Executive Chairman
♦ Over 22 years experience in the manufacturing industry; worked with Samsung India, Hotline Witties
Electronics and Onida Savak
♦ Around 3 decades of experience in factory operations, manufacturing, supply chain, global sourcing, and
business development. Has worked with Bestavision Electronics, Samsung, Jain Tube Company , Bigesto
Foods, Satkar Exports,Shirllon
♦ 26+ years of experience in the EMS industry; significant contribution to the overall growth of the Company
and successful completion of IPO, he is responsible for company’s overall business operations
♦ More than 30 years of experience in the field of plastics moulding. He has worked with Dipty Lal Judge
Mal, Noble Moulds, Evershine Moulding, Ever Shine Plastic Industries, Essen Fabrication & Engineering and
Shree Krishna Keshav Lab
♦ He has a rich and extensive experience of 28+ years of across Manufacturing, Technology, Business
Development and sourcing fields. He was associated with Videocon Group for close to three decades in
various roles
♦ Over 17 years of experience in finance & strategy. He is associate of the ICAI & an MBA from MDI,
Gurgaon. Honored with Business World-Yes Bank most promising Future CFO in Large Corporate category
Mr. Vineet Kumar Mishra, President - COO Lighting
Mr. Pankaj Sharma, President - COO Mobile Phone
Atul B. Lall, Managing Director
Mr. Rajeev Lonial, President COO Washing Machine
Mr. Abhijit Kotnis,President COO Television
Saurabh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer
Source: Company, Axis Securities
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
19
Key clients across various segments
Consumer Electronics
Lighting Products
Home Appliances
Mobiles
Security Systems
Segments Key Clients
16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Company Report
20
Consumer Electronics
Replacement demand, multiple TVs in household and upgradation tonew features is expected to drive FPD TV market growth at CAGR of15.5% in volume terms and 14.3% CAGR in value terms betweenFY18-21E
OEMs focus on marketing & rural penetration will lead the EMS/ODMsegment in consumer electronics industry to grow at a CAGR of 37%thus providing huge opportunity to Dixon
Dixon is the leader in FPD TV ODM segment with 50%+ share, whilethe nearest competitor’s share stands at ~ 8%
Further the contract with Xiaomi to manufacture TV’s is expected todrive revenues in the consumer electronics segment going forward.
We expect revenues to grow at 14% CAGR and stable marginsbetween FY19-21E
The key brands catered to by Dixon include Xiaomi, Panasonic, Marq,Koryo, Lloyd, TCL, Philips etc.
Source: Company, Axis Securities , LCM = Liquid Crystal Monitor , SMT= Surface Mount Technology
FPD TV market (mn units)
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
EMS Opportunity in FPD TV
5
17
26.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
FY13 FY18 FY21E
0.1
4.2
10.8
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
FY13 FY18 FY21E
Consumer Electronics segment revenue growth
698776 770
845
1,0731,194
0
400
800
1200
1600
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
(mn
Uni
ts)
(Rs
Cr)
(m
nU
nits
)
21
Lighting Products
As per TechSci, the Lighting products market in India is expected to
grow at CAGR of 24.6% during CY2016- CY2022 touching $ 3.76 bn
The demand for LED is expected to be driven by: Increasing adoption due energy savings & longer life of LED lighting vis-
a-vis incandescent lighting
Government initiatives like Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All (UJALA)
scheme, Street lighting National Program (SLNP) – for replacing old
bulbs by LED lights
Higher adoption due to increasing affordability as EESL offers subsidy on
LED lights to the end customer
The EMS/ODM segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 43.9% in
value terms thus providing huge opportunity to Dixon
Source: Company, Axis Securities
LED Lighting volume growth
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Lighting Products segment revenue growth
308 301
430
551
774
919
0
200
400
600
800
1000
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Dixon caters to major brands in the lighting segment viz Panasonic –Anchor, Bajaj, Wipro, Syska, Usha, Polycab, Jaguar, C&S, RR Cables,Luminous
Dixon’s capacity of 20 mn bulbs p.m can cater to ~54% of Indianmarket requirement
Dixon is among the top 5 global manufacturers in terms of scale in LEDBulbs
Dixon caters to 90% of Philips lighting requirements –it is also planningto increase the relationship and supply LED’s for exports
71% of Dixons revenues are on ODM basis vs. just 4% in FY14
Dixon witnessed margin improvement from 3.1% in FY17 to 7.18% inFY19 due to innovative product offering and increase in ODM share
We expect revenues to grow at 19%CAGR and margins the range of7.2-7.3% between FY19-21E
67
664
1482
0
400
800
1200
1600
FY13 FY18 FY21E
(Rs
Cr)
(mn
Uni
ts)
22
Home Appliances
Increasing product awareness, rising rural penetration (first timebuyers), affordable pricing and availability of finance to drive washingmachines market growth at a CAGR of 15.1% in volume terms to 9.9mn units and 16.3% CAGR to Rs 163.7 bn in value terms betweenFY19-21E
More companies opting for outsourcing to cater to local market &exports will lead to EMS/ODM segment growth at CAGR of 41%between FY19-21E
Dixon derives 100% revenues from Washing Machines on an ODMbasis and offers the largest bouquet of ODM models in WM segment
Dixon is the leader in Semi Automatic Washing Machine EMS marketwith ~42% share
We expect revenues to grow 13% CAGR with improvement in marginsbetween FY19-21E
Source: Company, Axis Securities
Washing Machine market growth
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
3.8
6.5
9.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
FY13 FY18 FY21E
Home Appliances Revenues witnessed steady growth
85107
131
188
250
374
0
100
200
300
400
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
As per Frost & Sullivan Report semi-automatic washing machinedominates the category with 56% volume market share
Dixon having dominant market share in EMS is better placed to caterto global brands which may not have semi-automatic washing machinesin their product portfolio
With a strategy to drive top-line and margin growth Dixon plans tomanufacture fully automatic washing machines adding to productdiversification
The key brands serviced by Dixon for semi-automatic washing machineinclude Samsung, Panasonic, Godrej, Marq, Koryo, Thomson, Akai etc.
(Rs
Cr)
(mn
Uni
ts)
23
Mobiles
PMP by the government revived mobile phone manufacturing after shutdown of Nokia plant in 2014
Domestic production of mobile phones increased 5x volume wise and~9.6x value wise between 2015-2019 while Imports declined from216 mn units to just 20 mn
India is currently the 2nd largest smart phone handset manufacturingcountry after China
Smart phone users to double in India (829 mn by 2022) and featurephone sales to reach 1bn globally, with higher demand from Indiapresents huge opportunity for players like Dixon
Dixon’s acquisition of balance 50% in Padget Technologies(JV partner)along with backward integration in mobile PCB’s will enable it to caterto growing opportunity
We expect mobile segment revenues to grow at 32% CAGR duringFY19-21E led by recovery in the segment and acquisition of newclients
Source: Company, Axis Securities, PMP = Phase Manufacturing Program
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Mobile Phones segment revenues to recover
20
811
670
355
0
200
400
600
800
1000
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Increasing domestic production & declining imports of mobile sets
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Imports ( In mn units) Production (In mn units)
Imports (Rs bn) Domestic Production (Rs bn)
2014-15 2018-19
Contribution 9.93% 37.12%
Number of Mobile Assembly Plants 2 270 (Mn
units
)
(Rs
bn)
Mobile Phone contribution in overall electronics production in India
(Rs
Cr)
24
Security Systems (CCTV & DVRs)
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Source: ICEA, Axis Securities
As per I.H.S market study the organized market for surveillanceequipment was ~Rs 3500 cr in CY2017 and expected to touchRs 5,000cr – Rs 6000 cr in CY2020 led by increasing use ofsurveillance technologies in prevention and detection of theft & crime
Dixon entered security cameras and surveillance systems segment inFY2018 as JV manufacturer with Aditya Infotech
Aditya Infotech owns CP Plus cameras and is also a distributor forChinese brand Dahua Technology (largest surveillance brandsglobally)
Dixon’s Security Systems segment witnessed robust growth duringFY18-19 and is expected to witness strong growth with improvedmargins
49
112
0
40
80
120
FY18 FY19
3500
6000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
2017 2020
Security Systems segment witnessed robust revenue growth Market for surveillance equipment
Key Demand Drivers
Increasing safety & surveillance measures being adopted by:
Government
Corporations
Educational Institutes
Residential associations & individuals
Declining prices of electronic security systems
Installation of surveillance by governments at public places
(Rs
Cr)
(Rs
Cr)
25
Reverse Logistics segment accounted for ~1% of revenues in FY19
OEMs prefer EMS players with end to end solutions including reverse logistics for after sales services , repairs & refurbishment
Reverse Logistics is an important end-customer support function
Dixon provides B2B reverse logistics for Set Top Boxes, Mobile Phones and LED TV panel, CCTVs through 17 service centres spread across different
states in India
Reverse logistics is supported by R&D team giving the company an advantage for repairs & refurbishment of Mobile phones, LED TV’s and products
like STB’s and Computer peripherals unlike competition
Return rates of Mobiles (9%), FPD TV (8%), washing machines (8%), STB’s (16%), will lead to growth of the reverse logistics with increasing sales of
these products
Source: Company, Axis Securities
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Share of products in Reverse logistics MarketReverse Logistics Market
17.6 19.1
23.925.4
27.430.4 34.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Computer Peripherals WM FPD TV Set Top Boxes Mobile Phones
0.9 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.47.9 7.99.4
1011.3
13.616.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Computer Peripherals WM FPD TV Set Top Boxes Mobile Phones
Reverse Logistics – maintaining customer stickiness
(Rs
bn)
(Volm
nun
its)
26
Strength
An EMS supplier with leadership in 3 fast growing segments
Strong & sticky customer relationships
Economies of Scale
Cost efficiencies due to backward integration
Strong R&D capabilities, developed 20+ ODM solutions
Weaknesses
Client concentration, dependence on anchor customers
Relatively lower bargaining power in OEM business
Opportunities
Low penetration of consumer durables in India
Increasing localization due to Make in India, inherent cost advantage
Increasing demand for EMS services
Strategy of growing ODM revenues
Threats
Brands resorting to in house production
Increase in competition
Higher imports by OEMs
SWOTStrength
Opportunities
Weaknesses
Threats
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Source: Company, Axis Securities
SWOT Analysis
27
Robust growth in key segments to drive profitability
Key segments viz Consumer Electronics(40% FY19 revenues), Lighting
(31% FY19 revenues) and Home Appliances (13% FY19 revenues) to
continue contributing to top-line growth going forward
Operating efficiencies along with backward integration will lead to
higher contribution of operating profits by key segments
We expect increasing contribution to top-line from mobile segment led by
growth recovery aided by cost effective backward integration
Security systems is expected to grow faster (on a low base) with
increasing revenue share and improved margins
Reverse logistics, a strategic offering to maintain stickiness of OEMs, is
expected to return to positive EBITDA with improved margins
2,457 2,890 2,984
3,868
4,754
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Consumer Electronics Lighting Products Home Appliances
Mobile Phones Reverse Logistics Security Systems
Segment wise revenue Break-up Segment wise EBITDA contribution
Segment wise Margins
91 112135
181227
-100
0
100
200
300
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Consumer Electronics Lighting Products Home Appliances
Mobile Phones Reverse Logistics Security Systems
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Consumer Electronics Lighting Products
Home Appliances Mobile Phones
Reverse Logistics Security Systems
(Rs
bn)
(Rs
bn)
(%)
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
28
8161,119 1,220 1,410
2,4992,853 2,984
3,868
4,754
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Net Sales ( Rs Cr)
Higher margin on increasing ODM support robust revenue growth
We expect top line to grow at a CAGR of 26 % between FY19-21E, on
strong growth in key segments Consumer Electronics, Lighting and Home
Appliances and new client additions across segments backed by rising
wallet share with existing customers
Additionally, we expect mobile segment to return to growth path, with
top-line CAGR of ~32% between FY19-21E led by company’s efforts to
add new popular clients
Security Systems segment to post robust growth going forward
contributing ~7% of top-line from current ~3.8% led by growing
demand for surveillance equipments
We expect EBITDA margins to improve driven by higher cost efficiencies
and growing share of ODM revenues
Strong growth in EBITDAHealthy top line growth
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Source: Company, Axis Securities
Increasing ODM share in revenues aid margin expansion…
22 2715 23
38
78 7385 77
62
0
20
40
60
80
100
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
ODM Revenue Share OEM Revenue Share
20 26 32 5991
112135
181 2272.5 2.3 2.6
4.23.7 3.9
4.5 4.7 4.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
FY1
3
FY1
4
FY1
5
FY1
6
FY1
7
FY1
8
FY1
9
FY2
0E
FY2
1E
EBITDA ( Rs cr) EBITDA (%)
(%)
29
New Client addition led to stretching of working capital in FY19 which
is expected to improve going forward
Improved collections and efficient inventory management along with
asset light nature of the business will allow Dixon to maintain lean
working capital days going forward
The recent government announcement of reduction in corporate tax
rate is expected to bring down effective tax rate positively impacting
EPS & Bottom line by ~9%.
With superior earnings growth led by strong order book and focus on
acquiring new clients we expect Dixon to report strong revenue
growth.
We expect PAT to grow at CAGR of ~42.8% between FY19-FY21E
Improving return ratios superior earnings trajectory
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Source: Company, Axis Securities
514 12
43 4761 63
98129
0
50
100
150
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
PAT (Rs Cr)
Lean working Capital days
10
14
10 107
13
1920
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
FY1
3
FY1
4
FY1
5
FY1
6
FY1
7
FY1
8
FY1
9
FY2
0E
FY2
1E
PAT to grow at CAGR of 42.8%
Astute working capital management with superior returns profile
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
RoE (%) Core RoCE (%)
30
Valuations
We estimate Dixon Technologies to post topline CAGR of 26%
and bottom-line CAGR of 42.8% over FY19-FY21E
We expect EBITDA margins to improve from 4.5% in FY19 to
4.8% in FY21E due to operating leverage
ROE is estimated to increase to 24% in FY21E from 18.2% in
FY19, while Core ROCE is expected to increase to 30.4% from
27.3% in FY19 driven by improved business performance
We value Dixon Technologies at 32x FY21E EPS as we expect it
to report Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 26%/30%/42.8%
respectively over FY19-21E and thus arrive at a price target of
Rs 3,649 ( 21% Upside)
Volatility in raw material prices
Competition from domestic and overseas players
Forex volatility
Customers resorting to higher in-house manufacturing
Change in government policies
Risk Factors
Valuation
12mth fwd P/E (x)
P/E band
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Source: Company, Axis Securities
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sep
-17
Nov-
17
Jan-
18
Mar-1
8
May-
18
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov-
18
Jan-
19
Mar-1
9
May-
19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
PE Mean Mean+1Stdev Mean-1Stdev
0
2000
4000
6000
Sep
-17
Nov-
17
Jan-
18
Mar-1
8
May-
18
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov-
18
Jan-
19
Mar-1
9
May-
19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Price 5x 10x 15x 20x
31
Financials (Consolidated)
Profit & Loss (Rs Cr) Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Source: Company, Axis Securities
Y/E March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Net sales 2,853 2,984 3,868 4,754
Other operating income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total income 2,853 2,984 3,868 4,754
Cost of goods sold 2,741 2,850 3,687 4,526
Contribution (%) 3.9% 4.5% 4.68% 4.78%
Advt/Sales/Distrn O/H 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Operating Profit 112 135 181 227
Other income 4 6 5 7
PBIDT 116 141 186 234
Depreciation 15 22 26 34
Interest & Fin Chg. 13 25 26 24
E/o income / (Expense) 0 0 0 0
Pre-tax profit 88 94 134 177
Tax provision 27 30 36 48
PAT befor Comprehensive Income 61 63 98 129
(-) Minority Interests 0 0 0 0
Associates 0 0 0 0
Other Comprehensive Income (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 0.0
Adjusted PAT 60.8 63.3 98.0 129.1
Reported PAT 61 63 98 129
Y/E March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Total assets 363 535 616 731
Net Block 179 241 264 293
CWIP 12.8 18.8 30.0 32.5
Investments 17.2 9.7 9.7 9.7
Wkg. cap. (excl cash) 110 229 256 275
Cash / Bank balance 44.1 36.7 56.6 120.6
Misc. Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital employed 363 535 616 731
Equity capital 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3
Reserves 304 367 462 589
Pref. Share Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Borrowings 44 141 136 123
Def tax Liabilities 4.1 16.0 6.7 7.9
32
Financials (Consolidated)
Cash Flow (Rs Cr) Ratio Analysis (%)
Source: Company, Axis Securities
Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Y/E March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Sources 83 96 117 158
Cash profit 89 110 150 186
(-) Dividends 0 3 3 3
Retained earnings 89 107 147 184
Issue of equity 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in Oth. Reserves 55.9 2.7 0.0 0.0
Borrowings (2) (2) 5 (3)
Others (60) (12) (36) (22)
Applications 83 96 117 158
Capital expenditure 4.5 94.6 60.0 65.0
Investments 28.3 (11.0) 0.0 0.0
Net current assets 21.5 20.0 36.8 29.3
Change in cash 28.8 (7.4) 19.9 64.0
Y/E March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Sales growth 14.2 4.6 29.6 22.9
OPM 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.8
Oper. profit growth 22.8 20.4 34.2 25.5
COGS / Net sales 96.1 95.5 95.3 95.2
Overheads/Net sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Depreciation / G. block 7.4 7.5 7.6 8.4
Net wkg.cap / Net sales 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.07
Net sales / Gr block (x) 13.9 10.3 11.5 11.9
Core RoCE 34.9 27.4 28.6 30.4
Debt / equity (x) 0.13 0.36 0.28 0.20
Effective tax rate 31.0 32.5 27.0 27.0
RoE 23.7 18.2 22.9 24.0
Payout ratio (Div/NP) 0.0 4.3 2.7 2.1
EPS (Rs.) 54.8 55.9 86.6 114.0
EPS Growth 26.5 2.1 54.7 31.7
CEPS (Rs.) 67.1 75.0 109.2 143.7
DPS (Rs.) 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
33
Disclaimer
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Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables
Instead of a company visit, we have done a conference call with the company’s management.
34
Disclaimer
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Company Report16 OCT 2019
Dixon Technologies
Sector: Consumer Durables