Dixon Technologies - MarketsMojo.com

34
Dixon Technologies 16 OCT 2019 Initiating Coverage

Transcript of Dixon Technologies - MarketsMojo.com

Dixon Technologies

16 OCT 2019

Initiating Coverage

2

Powering Durable Brands

Sector: Consumer Durables

Price performance

Target Price:

CMPPotential Upside

MARKET DATA

No. of Shares (Cr)

Market Cap (Rs Cr)

Free Float

Avg. daily vol (6mth)

52-w High / Low

Bloomberg

Promoter holding

FII / DII

16 OCT 2019 Company Report

BuyRs 3,649

: Rs. 3,005: 21%

: 1.13

: Rs. 3,395

: 56%

: 6526

: 3230/1831

: DIXON IN

: 38.92%

: 7.23%/ 22.38 %

Shareholding patternFinancial Summary (Consolidated)

Source: Company, Axis Securities CMP as on Oct 16, 2019

Y/EMarch

Net Sales(Rs Cr)

EBITDA(Rs Cr)

PAT (Rs Cr)

EPS (Rs)

Change (%)

P/E(x)

RoE (%)

Core RoCE(%)

EV/EBITDA (x)

FY18 2,853 112 61 54.8 26.5 61.1 23.7 34.9 32.8

FY19 2,984 135 63 55.9 2.1 42.1 18.2 27.4 19.5

FY20E 3,868 181 98 86.6 54.7 34.7 22.9 28.6 18.6

FY21E 4,754 227 129 114.0 31.7 26.4 24.0 30.4 14.5

Jun-19 Q-o-Q Chg

Promoters 38.92 (0.01)

FIIs 7.23 1.19

MFs / UTI 22.29 (1.43)

Banks / FIs 0.09 0.05

Others 31.47 0.2

Hiren Trivedi - CM Research| [email protected] | (+91 22 4267 1759)

Dixon Technologies

40

80

120

Jul-18 Dec-18 May-19 Oct-19

BSE Sensex Dixon Technolog.

3

Investment Rationale

Dixon Technologies (Dixon) is a leading manufacturer of products for consumer durable brands in India. It has ~9.3% share inElectronic Manufacturing Services providing cost efficient, end to end solutions to MNC’s and domestic OEM’s. Dixon’s productsinclude (i)consumer electronics - LED TVs, (ii) home appliances - Washing Machines, (iii) lighting products - LED bulbs (iv) mobilephones and (v) CCTV & DVR. The company also provides repairs and refurbishment services through its Reverse logistics segment.

Dixon is a leading player in Flat Panel Display (FPD) TV with 50%+ market share; in LED Lighting it accounts for ~35%+ domesticvolumes and commands 40%+ share in the Washing Machines EMS market. Its key customers include Panasonic, Philips LightingIndia, Xiaomi, Samsung, Flipkart, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Lloyds, Haier, Reliance Retail, Wipro, Syska, Polycaband Bajaj Electricals.

Company Report

Sector: Consumer Durables

Dixon Technologies

16 OCT 2019

* OEM / OEM – Original Equipment Manufacturer / Original Design Manufacturer | EMS – Electronic Manufacturing Services

We initiate coverage with “BUY” rating and a target price of Rs 3,649 i.e. 21% upside (implies 32x FY21E)

Increasing EMS opportunities

across segments and higher

share of ODM revenues

Faster adoption of consumer

durables by younger population

propelled by increase in

disposable income

Strong growth led by backward

integrated cost effective

manufacturing and diverse

product offerings

Higher contribution from

FPD TV, Lighting & Washing

Machines segments; recovery in

Mobiles and strong growth in

Security Systems

We expect revenues/earnings to grow at CAGR of 26% / 42.8% respectively over FY19-21E driven by

4

Investment Rationale

Indian CEA (Consumer Electronics and Appliances) market is expected to grow at a faster pace of ~19% CAGR between FY19-21E while

the global CEA market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~8% between FY18-24E

Global *EMS/^ODM market is expected to grow at CAGR of 8.5% between FY19-21E, while India’s EMS/ODM segment is expected to

grow at 32.4% CAGR in the same period as many OEM’s outsource their manufacturing requirements in line with their strategy of keeping

asset light business model

High growth in consumer electronics and increasing EMS presents a huge opportunity for players like Dixon

Higher growth in global and domestic CEA market

Dixon, a cost efficient solution provider and a leader in ODM segment is well equipped to capitalize on rising OEM’s demand for ODM

Company’s ODM share increased from ~15% in FY17 to 38% in FY19 owing to its focus on developing value added products for its

customers (20+ ODM products developed)

ODM business fetches ~200-300 bps higher margins than OEM business; EBITDA Margins expanded by 92 bps over FY17-FY19

In Home Appliances ODM share continues to be 100%, in lighting its ODM revenue stood at 71% (vs. 40% in FY18), and Consumer

Electronics ODM share is 9% (vs. 6% in FY18) which is likely to improve further as Dixon has converted large customer Panasonic from

prescriptive mode to ODM mode

Increasing trend towards ODM manufacturing augur well for Dixon

Company Report

Sector: Consumer Durables

Dixon Technologies

16 OCT 2019

^ODM =Original Design Manufacturer |*EMS – Electronic Manufacturing Services

5

Investment Rationale

Company Report

Sector: Consumer Durables

Dixon Technologies

16 OCT 2019

Local manufacturing to get a boost from Government steps to promote India as hub for innovation, design and manufacturing

Setting up port-based electronic manufacturing clusters to support local manufacturing and exports

Governments thrust on Electricity For All is expected to provide an impetus for increasing demand for consumer durables in rural and semi-

urban areas

Government push for energy efficient products via Domestic Efficient Lighting Programme (DELP), UJALA have resulted in higher demand

for lighting segment

The recent customs duty increase on CCTV cameras/DVR’s to 20% from 15% will promote local manufacturing and discourage imports

Governmental thrust on domestic manufacturing

Developed capability in manufacturing critical components, thereby strengthening relationship with customers

Reduced dependency on third party suppliers leading to cost efficiencies

Increased number of product offerings within key segments like LED lighting, washing machines and FPD TV

Ability to provide value added ODM solutions to clients, thus leading to improved margins in key segments

Backward integration- improving cost efficiencies & enhancing product offerings

6

Investment Rationale…

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Dixon has strong relationship with existing customers, for e.g. half-a decade with Panasonic, almost 10 years with Philips

Similar to global EMS peers Dixon derives higher revenue share from anchor customers, however its constant endeavour is to acquire new

customers through new segments and increase offerings within existing segments (e.g. in Lighting segment its anchor customer Philips now

contributes ~45% to the segment revenues vs. ~90% earlier)

Recent client additions (during FY19) include Xiaomi, Panasonic-Anchor, Syska, Samsung, Flipkart, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals,

Lloyds, Wipro

Strong client relationships, Acquisition of new customers

India’s labour cost at $1.7/hour is almost half vis-à-vis China at $3.3/hour making India an attractive manufacturing destination

China is witnessing sharp increase in labour cost as workers focus on highly skilled jobs resulting in lack of manpower at low end of

manufacturing value chain

Indian manufacturing costs to moderate due to economies of scale, government support (SLNP, Customs duty, Subsidies) and availability of

skilled & semi-skilled manpower

Cost advantage over China

7

Investment Rationale…

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Dixon is a leading player in Flat Panel Display (FPD) TV with 50%+ market share, in LED Lighting it accounts for ~35%+ domestic volumes

and commands 40%+ share in the Washing Machines EMS market.

Proximity of manufacturing plants to OEM’s, end to end services including ODM solutions, cost efficient production along with reverse

logistics has led to Dixon becoming a preferred EMS partner with strong client relationships

Key customers include Panasonic, Philips Lighting India, Xiaomi, Samsung, Flipkart, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Lloyds, Haier,

Reliance Retail, Wipro, Syska, Polycab and Bajaj Electricals

Leading EMS solutions provider

Optimum utilisation of assets :Flexible manufacturing lines with standardised equipment used for diverse products has led Dixon to derive

benefits of scale while remaining asset light leading to cost efficiencies

Lean working capital : Dixon has maintained lean working capital despite increasing product offerings within segments and addition of new

product segments due to efficient inventory management and favourable credit terms from suppliers

New client addition along with capex and expenditure related to ramp up in capacities to led to stretching of working capital in FY19

Improved collections and efficient inventory management along with asset light nature of the business will allow Dixon to maintain lean

working capital days going forward

Cost efficient manufacturing with lean working capital management

8

Higher growth opportunity led by strong domestic CEA market

Growth of Indian CEA market

Source: Company, Axis Securities

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Global demand for consumer electronics goods is set to grow

due to:

Innovative product offerings leading to faster replacement

of consumer goods

Adoption of smart technologies integrated into the product

Proliferation of e-commerce

The global consumer electronics market was valued at $

1,172 bn in 2017 as per Zion Market Research, is expected

to touch $1,787 bn by 2024 at CAGR of 6%.

Global consumer electronics growth is expected to be driven

by increasing demand from Smartphone, Television, DVD

Players, Refrigerators, Washing Machines, Digital Cameras,

and Hard Disk Drives

Indian CEA market grew at CAGR of ~14% between FY13-

FY19, is expected to grow faster at CAGR of 19% between

FY19-21E, from Rs 4,178 bn in FY2019 to Rs 5,940 bn in

FY2021E due to

Increasing working population

Early adoption of consumer goods

Easy availability of finance

Indian CEA market to grow at faster pace

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20E

FY21E

Total CEA Market Consumer Electronics Appliances

(Rs

bn)

9

Indian EMS/ODM growth to outpace Global EMS/ODM growth

Global EMS/ODM market to grow at CAGR of 8.5% between

FY19-21E led by OEM’s focus on :

Differentiation via new product innovation

Brand building

Marketing and distribution

Global EMS market growth will be driven by higher electronics

consumption by end user industries like IT & Telecom, Consumer

Electronics, Automotive, Healthcare and Industrial.

Top categories that are expected to drive Indian EMS segment

are Mobile phones, Telecom, Consumer electronics and

Appliances

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Global EMS/ODM Market by Value

Source: Company, Axis Securities

Indian EMS/ODM Market by Value

436 444 455 478 502 532569

615670

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

FY1

3

FY1

4

FY1

5

FY1

6

FY1

7

FY1

8

FY1

9

FY2

0

FY2

1

OEM’s preference for strategic tie-up with EMS players like

Dixon to meet domestic demands will lead Indian EMS/ODM

market to grow at robust 32.4% during FY19-21E

India’s EMS market is just 0.6% of the global EMS market and

is expected to reach 1.6% by CY2021, aided by Rising per capita income and affluent middle class

Increasing nuclear families

Enhanced features and availability of finance leading to early

adoption of consumer electronics

Make In India thrust

Subsidies and incentives by central/state governments

Rationalisation of duties and taxes

1.4 1.6 1.9 2.23.0

3.84.7

6.1

8.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

FY1

3

FY1

4

FY1

5

FY1

6

FY1

7

FY1

8

FY1

9

FY2

0

FY2

1

Dixon being the 2nd largest EMS company to benefit from robust growth in domestic EMS demand

($ b

n)

($ b

n)

10

Enhancing capabilities through backward integration

Segment Backward Integration Advantage - Dixon

Home Appliances( Washing Machines)

Plastic moulding, panels, control table, twin tubs, Motors

Increased capacity will caterto 33% of the Indian Marketrequirement, Value Addition

Lighting ( LED bulbs, battens )

Sheet metal, plastic moulding and wound components

Increased ODM share to 90%, led to customer additions, enabled providing end to end solutions

Consumer Electronics (FPD TV's)

Backlight units, plastic moulding, circuits, LCM, SMT

Became largest LED TV Mfg in India, capacity can cater to 26% of Indian market needs, Improvement in Margins

Mobile Phones ( Feature & Smart phones)

PCB ManufacturingCritical components thatcontributes to ~50% of the value addition in a phone

16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

1994 2007 2008 2010 2010 2016

Colour TV

LCD TV LED TV

CCTV, Digital Video Recorder

CFL Lighting, Reverse logistics

Mobile Phones

Washing Machines

2017

Company Report

Segments Key Products offerings

Consumer Electronics LED TV’s–19’’to 65’’& 4K2K technology, Home Theatres– 2.1& 4.1channel, FPD, Smart TVs

Lighting Products LED Lights, Ballast, Tube lights, Batten, Down lighters, CFL/LED Drivers

Home Appliances Semi-automatic washing machine ranging from 6.2kg to 8.2kg

Mobile Phones Feature & smart phones (2G, 3G, 4G/LTE, VoLTE & CDMA)

Security Systems CCTV Cameras, DVRs

Reverse LogisticsRepair –mobile phones, LCD/LED TVs, LED panel, home theatre, computer peripherals and other devices

Sector: Consumer Durables

Strategic product portfolio diversification

11

Dixon’s manufacturing strength in key segments

30%

30%

30%

10%

Circuit Plastics LED Others

12%

11%

9%

56%

12%

Circuit Plastics BLU LED Glass Others

50%

25%

5%

10%

10%

Plastic Parts Electronic motor Gear Box Timers Others

Imported/Domestic

Dixon

Imported

DixonDomestic

Imported

Dixon

Domestic/Imported

Dixon manufactures majority of end product components

in-house :

60% of LED Lamps (components like Circuits & Plastic moulded parts)

50% of Washing Machines

32% of LED TV’s

Dixon is able to offer cost effective solutions due to:

Backward Integrated manufacturing

Flexible manufacturing lines used for diverse products with

standardised equipment

Economies of scale

Availability of skilled man power

LED Lamps LED TVSemi Automatic

WashingMachines

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

12

Well diversified leading EMS player

LED TVsWashing Machine

Lighting products

Mobile

Dixon Tech High High High Medium

ELIN India - - Low -

MEPL Low

DetlaLight - - Medium -

Opetiemus - - - High

NTL electronics

- - Medium -

Noble Low Medium - -

Videotex Medium - - -

Vimal Plast - Low - -

Key EMS players and their offerings

Level of diversification – Dixon vs. Peers

Companies OfferingsFocus &

CompetenceProducts

Global companies

Jabil, Foxconn, Flex , Sanmina , Wistron

S/w Develop, product design,

prototyping, SMT, PCBA, logistics

Global & Indian market - technical -High Value add

products

Mobiles, Set top Boxes, Telecom solutions, PC's,

Desktops

Large Indian Companies

NTL, SFO Techno., ELIN , PG Group, Kaynes, Dixon

H/w design, S/w develop, assembly,

prototyping & testing

Domestic market -Value add products

Mobile, Lighting Products, Medical

& Defence, WM,FPD TV’s

Small Indian Companies

SGS Tekniks, Amara Raja Electronics, HicalTech

Sheet metal, plastic moulding,

transformers

Local markets & exports

-Low value products

LED Lighting , medical electronics,

HUPS systems, inverters

Company Report

SegmentEMS Market

Share

Consumer Electronics (FPD TV's) 50% +

Lighting (LED Lights - volumes) 35%+

Home Appliances (Semi Automatic Washing Machines) 40%+

Dixon’s market leadership in key segments

Dixon’s leadership in key segments stems from integrated manufacturing capabilities across its business segments.

Dixon Technologies

Source: Company, Axis Securities

16 OCT 2019

Sector: Consumer Durables

13

Governmental thrust on Domestic Manufacturing

*M-SIPS: capital subsidy of 20% in SEZ (25%-non SEZ areas) Electronics manufacturing clusters: Financial assistance of up to

50% and 75% of project cost for setting manufacturing clusters Preferential market access: government to prefer domestically

manufactured products Phased Manufacturing program: Government providing tax

reliefs and rationalisation of customs duty National Policy on Electronics - $400 bn turnover in domestic

electronics manufacturing by CY2025 Promote EMS activities such as engineering and design of

PCBs, PCB assembly

India is among the top 10 countries globally, showingimprovement in World Bank’s ease of doing business indexjumping 23 notches to 77th place in 2019

FDI inflows in electronics in India increased 2.3X in 2018-19 at$ 451.9 mn vs.$196.9 mn in 2017-18 led by initiatives like

100% FDI in Electronics Systems design & manufacturing sector -automatic route

100% FDI In contract manufacturing -automatic route

With energy saving as objective, under #SNLP over 85.67 lakh

street lights in 1400 cities across India have been replaced as

of July 2019 – aim to replace 1.34 cr street lights

Under ^UJALA scheme total 34.76 crore LEDs distributed to

rural households through EESL –target of 77 cr LED lights to be

distributed going forward

Subsidies, incentives led to reduction in price of 9W led bulb to

~Rs 70 vs Rs 160 thus prompting higher adoption aided by

power for all initiative of government

Cut in duty of Open Cell to 0% from 5% - to promote local

manufacturing of LED TV’s

Customs duty hike on Washing Machines (less than 10 kg) from

10% to 20% will make domestic production competitive

Customs duty increase on CCTV cameras/DVR’s to 20% from

15%, will promote local manufacturing and discourage imports

Reduction of Corporate Tax rate to 22% (15% for new units)

*Modified Special Incentive Package Scheme(M-SIPS) ^ UJALA- Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All,#SLNP - Street Light National Programme

Make In India Ease of doing business - Aiding FDI Inflows

Led Lighting – lighting up manufacturing in India Rationalization of duties & taxes – a shot in the arm

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Local production +demand generation+ attracting capital = Growing opportunities for Dixon

14

Indian manufacturing costs to moderate due to economies ofscale, government support (SLNP, Customs duty, Subsidies)

China’s salaries, since 2013 have risen between 21% to 41% inits manufacturing hubs and expected to increase further dueworker’s preference for hi-tech jobs

India is better placed to attract OEM’s as China’s cost to rise dueto withdrawal of subsidies, shift to higher level jobs and higherrate of increase in labour costs

Low cost of production in India will incentivize brands tomanufacture locally/depend on domestic manufacturers

Dixon is well placed to cater to brands being an end-to-end costefficient solutions provider in FPD TV’s, LED Lamps & WashingMachines segment

Labour cost advantage to aid local manufacturing

Source: Deloitte Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index 2016 ,National Bureau of Statistics China, Company , Axis Securities.,*LOH = Labour & Overheads

India’s labour cost is among lowest in the world

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Labour and Overheads cost differentials favour manufacturing in India

12% 12.5% 13%13%

16.5%

19%

0

5

10

15

20

FY14 FY17 FY21E

India China

Increasing Average Manufacturing wages in China

26

,59

9

30

,70

0

36

,66

5

41

,650

46

,43

1

51

,36

9

55

,32

4

59

,47

0

64

,45

2

72

,08

8

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

38.040.5

24.020.7

9.4

3.3 1.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

US Germany Japan S.Korea Taiwan China India

*LO

H a

s %

of

tota

l cos

t(U

SD

/hr

)

(CN

Y/Yea

r)

15

Lower Penetration & Low localization –huge opportunity

Source: Company, Axis Securities

Penetration of Consumer Durables

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Localization levels in appliances

Huge potential for higher penetration

Government’s thrust on Electricity For All is expected to provide an

impetus for increasing demand in rural and semi-urban areas

Easy availability of credit, increasing urbanisation, will lead to higher

demand

TV industry in India is estimated to grow from Rs 660 bn in CY2017 to

reach Rs 862 bn in CY2020

Dixon has the largest TV manufacturing capacity in India at 36 lakh TV

sets per anum

Large opportunity for EMS players like Dixon in under penetrated

segments like Washing Machines (60% scope) and FPD TV’s (~30%

scope)

Increased scope for localization

Rising cost of imports (increased customs duties) to push brands to

increase their localization content to fulfil growing demand for consumer

goods

Lower cost, end to end solutions, innovative product offerings, value

added aftermarket services to aid higher localization

Dixon better placed than peers to capitalize on growing localization

needs of customers due to

Leading EMS manufacturer in three segments

Fungible manufacturing capabilities across segments

Fully backward integrated facility

Strong R&D capabilities to offer innovative value added solutions

10%

60%

4%

17% 20%

70%

89%

30% 25%

85%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

WashingMachine

FPD TV Room AC Air Cooler Refrigerator

India Global

30

35

10

70

35

70

65

90

30

65

0 20 40 60 80 100

Refrigetaor

Residential ACs

Air Coolers

FPD TV

Washing Machine

Localisation levels in Appliances Import

16

Rising affluence - driver of increasing consumption

Source: BCG Centre for Customer Insight

Increasing per capita income leading to higher discretionary spends

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Key Drivers of Demand

65% of the consumer durables demand comes from first time

buyers as per industry reports

Rising affluent middle class population is estimated to form ~69%

of total population by 2020

Changing lifestyle causing early adoption of white goods in young

population, a strong demand generator

Increasing Per Capita Income in India leading to higher spends on

aspirational goods including consumer durables like FPD TV’s,

Washing Machines and Mobile phones

Elite and affluent households—will becomethe largest combined segment by 2025,accounting for 40% of consumptioncompared with 27% in 2016

The number of cities having greater than40% elite and affluent households willincrease to 48 in 2025 (vs. Nil in 2016)while cities having 21-40% elite and affluenthouseholds will increase to 270 in 2025( vs. 64 in 2016)

Wide spread affluence to drive consumer spending across India

1,6

10

1,6

40

1,7

62

2,0

14

2,0

36

2,1

99

2,3

79

2,5

78

2,7

91

3,0

23

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

CY 14 CY 15 CY 16 CY 17 CY 18 CY 19E CY 20E CY 21E CY 22E CY 23E

(In

USD

)

Source: IMF

17

Company Profile

Dixon Technologies started manufacturing operations in the year 1994with production of colour TVs

Has over the years evolved into fully integrated end-to-end product andsolution provider to OEM’s ranging from global sourcing,manufacturing, quality testing and packaging to logistics

Diversified into 5 segments like LED TV, Smart TV, LED bulbs & Tubelights, down lighters, Semi-Automatic Washing machines, Featurephones & Smart Phones, CCTV camera’s & DVR’s, with various offeringsin each segment

Dixon has 10 state of the art manufacturing facilities supported by 3R&D centres (2 in India and 1 in China) that focus on value addition toits products

Strategic location of plants: Near customer’s facility ensuring prompt response to clients manufacturing

requirements In proximity to Chennai & Krishnapatman ports - ability to cater to South East

Asian markets through exports Having flexible and cost efficient manufacturing capabilities with

availability of skilled and unskilled manpower

Head OfficeManufacturing Units

Noida (4 Units)

Dehradun (4 Units)

Tirupati (2 Units)

16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Company Report

Plant Location Products manufactured currently Year Estb

Noida-I LED bulbs, LED drivers, PCB assembly of Airconditionals 1996

Noida-II Mobile phones 2016

Noida-III Reverse logistics, LED Bulbs 2009

Noida-IV LED bulbs and parts 2009

Dehradun - I facility LED bulbs, Battens, T-LEDs, Down Lighter, Ballast, etc. 2007

Dehradun - II facility Semi -automatic washing machines 2010

Dehradun - III facility Backward integration of plastic parts,Sheet metal components

2009

Dehradun -IV facility Washing Machines 2018

Tirupati LED TVs; Security systems (CCTVs, DVRs) 2017

Focus on making Tirupati a mother plant

Area 12 acres, 2 lakh sq feet construction space

Focus Product & Geographical expansion

Benefits SGST exemption for 8 years (refund method) Subsidies on land rent, electricity & water Proximity to Chennai port ( ~ 136 kms)

Products LED TV’s; Dixon expanded capacity from 2.4 mn to 3.4 mn p.a CCTV’s capacity 6 lakh per month DVR’s capacity 1.5 lakh per month

Planned Expansion

Fully Automatic Washing Machine line with 5 lakh units annually

Source: Company, Axis Securities

18

Management Team

♦ Has more than 2 decades of experience in the EMS industry. He has held positions like chairman of the

Electronics and Computer Software Export Promotion Council of India and Co-Chair of the CII ICTE

Committee. He is currently the vice president of CEAMA

Sunil Vachani, Executive Chairman

♦ Over 22 years experience in the manufacturing industry; worked with Samsung India, Hotline Witties

Electronics and Onida Savak

♦ Around 3 decades of experience in factory operations, manufacturing, supply chain, global sourcing, and

business development. Has worked with Bestavision Electronics, Samsung, Jain Tube Company , Bigesto

Foods, Satkar Exports,Shirllon

♦ 26+ years of experience in the EMS industry; significant contribution to the overall growth of the Company

and successful completion of IPO, he is responsible for company’s overall business operations

♦ More than 30 years of experience in the field of plastics moulding. He has worked with Dipty Lal Judge

Mal, Noble Moulds, Evershine Moulding, Ever Shine Plastic Industries, Essen Fabrication & Engineering and

Shree Krishna Keshav Lab

♦ He has a rich and extensive experience of 28+ years of across Manufacturing, Technology, Business

Development and sourcing fields. He was associated with Videocon Group for close to three decades in

various roles

♦ Over 17 years of experience in finance & strategy. He is associate of the ICAI & an MBA from MDI,

Gurgaon. Honored with Business World-Yes Bank most promising Future CFO in Large Corporate category

Mr. Vineet Kumar Mishra, President - COO Lighting

Mr. Pankaj Sharma, President - COO Mobile Phone

Atul B. Lall, Managing Director

Mr. Rajeev Lonial, President COO Washing Machine

Mr. Abhijit Kotnis,President COO Television

Saurabh Gupta, Chief Financial Officer

Source: Company, Axis Securities

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

19

Key clients across various segments

Consumer Electronics

Lighting Products

Home Appliances

Mobiles

Security Systems

Segments Key Clients

16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Company Report

20

Consumer Electronics

Replacement demand, multiple TVs in household and upgradation tonew features is expected to drive FPD TV market growth at CAGR of15.5% in volume terms and 14.3% CAGR in value terms betweenFY18-21E

OEMs focus on marketing & rural penetration will lead the EMS/ODMsegment in consumer electronics industry to grow at a CAGR of 37%thus providing huge opportunity to Dixon

Dixon is the leader in FPD TV ODM segment with 50%+ share, whilethe nearest competitor’s share stands at ~ 8%

Further the contract with Xiaomi to manufacture TV’s is expected todrive revenues in the consumer electronics segment going forward.

We expect revenues to grow at 14% CAGR and stable marginsbetween FY19-21E

The key brands catered to by Dixon include Xiaomi, Panasonic, Marq,Koryo, Lloyd, TCL, Philips etc.

Source: Company, Axis Securities , LCM = Liquid Crystal Monitor , SMT= Surface Mount Technology

FPD TV market (mn units)

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

EMS Opportunity in FPD TV

5

17

26.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FY13 FY18 FY21E

0.1

4.2

10.8

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

FY13 FY18 FY21E

Consumer Electronics segment revenue growth

698776 770

845

1,0731,194

0

400

800

1200

1600

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

(mn

Uni

ts)

(Rs

Cr)

(m

nU

nits

)

21

Lighting Products

As per TechSci, the Lighting products market in India is expected to

grow at CAGR of 24.6% during CY2016- CY2022 touching $ 3.76 bn

The demand for LED is expected to be driven by: Increasing adoption due energy savings & longer life of LED lighting vis-

a-vis incandescent lighting

Government initiatives like Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All (UJALA)

scheme, Street lighting National Program (SLNP) – for replacing old

bulbs by LED lights

Higher adoption due to increasing affordability as EESL offers subsidy on

LED lights to the end customer

The EMS/ODM segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 43.9% in

value terms thus providing huge opportunity to Dixon

Source: Company, Axis Securities

LED Lighting volume growth

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Lighting Products segment revenue growth

308 301

430

551

774

919

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Dixon caters to major brands in the lighting segment viz Panasonic –Anchor, Bajaj, Wipro, Syska, Usha, Polycab, Jaguar, C&S, RR Cables,Luminous

Dixon’s capacity of 20 mn bulbs p.m can cater to ~54% of Indianmarket requirement

Dixon is among the top 5 global manufacturers in terms of scale in LEDBulbs

Dixon caters to 90% of Philips lighting requirements –it is also planningto increase the relationship and supply LED’s for exports

71% of Dixons revenues are on ODM basis vs. just 4% in FY14

Dixon witnessed margin improvement from 3.1% in FY17 to 7.18% inFY19 due to innovative product offering and increase in ODM share

We expect revenues to grow at 19%CAGR and margins the range of7.2-7.3% between FY19-21E

67

664

1482

0

400

800

1200

1600

FY13 FY18 FY21E

(Rs

Cr)

(mn

Uni

ts)

22

Home Appliances

Increasing product awareness, rising rural penetration (first timebuyers), affordable pricing and availability of finance to drive washingmachines market growth at a CAGR of 15.1% in volume terms to 9.9mn units and 16.3% CAGR to Rs 163.7 bn in value terms betweenFY19-21E

More companies opting for outsourcing to cater to local market &exports will lead to EMS/ODM segment growth at CAGR of 41%between FY19-21E

Dixon derives 100% revenues from Washing Machines on an ODMbasis and offers the largest bouquet of ODM models in WM segment

Dixon is the leader in Semi Automatic Washing Machine EMS marketwith ~42% share

We expect revenues to grow 13% CAGR with improvement in marginsbetween FY19-21E

Source: Company, Axis Securities

Washing Machine market growth

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

3.8

6.5

9.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

FY13 FY18 FY21E

Home Appliances Revenues witnessed steady growth

85107

131

188

250

374

0

100

200

300

400

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

As per Frost & Sullivan Report semi-automatic washing machinedominates the category with 56% volume market share

Dixon having dominant market share in EMS is better placed to caterto global brands which may not have semi-automatic washing machinesin their product portfolio

With a strategy to drive top-line and margin growth Dixon plans tomanufacture fully automatic washing machines adding to productdiversification

The key brands serviced by Dixon for semi-automatic washing machineinclude Samsung, Panasonic, Godrej, Marq, Koryo, Thomson, Akai etc.

(Rs

Cr)

(mn

Uni

ts)

23

Mobiles

PMP by the government revived mobile phone manufacturing after shutdown of Nokia plant in 2014

Domestic production of mobile phones increased 5x volume wise and~9.6x value wise between 2015-2019 while Imports declined from216 mn units to just 20 mn

India is currently the 2nd largest smart phone handset manufacturingcountry after China

Smart phone users to double in India (829 mn by 2022) and featurephone sales to reach 1bn globally, with higher demand from Indiapresents huge opportunity for players like Dixon

Dixon’s acquisition of balance 50% in Padget Technologies(JV partner)along with backward integration in mobile PCB’s will enable it to caterto growing opportunity

We expect mobile segment revenues to grow at 32% CAGR duringFY19-21E led by recovery in the segment and acquisition of newclients

Source: Company, Axis Securities, PMP = Phase Manufacturing Program

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Mobile Phones segment revenues to recover

20

811

670

355

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Increasing domestic production & declining imports of mobile sets

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

0

100

200

300

400

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Imports ( In mn units) Production (In mn units)

Imports (Rs bn) Domestic Production (Rs bn)

2014-15 2018-19

Contribution 9.93% 37.12%

Number of Mobile Assembly Plants 2 270 (Mn

units

)

(Rs

bn)

Mobile Phone contribution in overall electronics production in India

(Rs

Cr)

24

Security Systems (CCTV & DVRs)

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Source: ICEA, Axis Securities

As per I.H.S market study the organized market for surveillanceequipment was ~Rs 3500 cr in CY2017 and expected to touchRs 5,000cr – Rs 6000 cr in CY2020 led by increasing use ofsurveillance technologies in prevention and detection of theft & crime

Dixon entered security cameras and surveillance systems segment inFY2018 as JV manufacturer with Aditya Infotech

Aditya Infotech owns CP Plus cameras and is also a distributor forChinese brand Dahua Technology (largest surveillance brandsglobally)

Dixon’s Security Systems segment witnessed robust growth duringFY18-19 and is expected to witness strong growth with improvedmargins

49

112

0

40

80

120

FY18 FY19

3500

6000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2017 2020

Security Systems segment witnessed robust revenue growth Market for surveillance equipment

Key Demand Drivers

Increasing safety & surveillance measures being adopted by:

Government

Corporations

Educational Institutes

Residential associations & individuals

Declining prices of electronic security systems

Installation of surveillance by governments at public places

(Rs

Cr)

(Rs

Cr)

25

Reverse Logistics segment accounted for ~1% of revenues in FY19

OEMs prefer EMS players with end to end solutions including reverse logistics for after sales services , repairs & refurbishment

Reverse Logistics is an important end-customer support function

Dixon provides B2B reverse logistics for Set Top Boxes, Mobile Phones and LED TV panel, CCTVs through 17 service centres spread across different

states in India

Reverse logistics is supported by R&D team giving the company an advantage for repairs & refurbishment of Mobile phones, LED TV’s and products

like STB’s and Computer peripherals unlike competition

Return rates of Mobiles (9%), FPD TV (8%), washing machines (8%), STB’s (16%), will lead to growth of the reverse logistics with increasing sales of

these products

Source: Company, Axis Securities

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Share of products in Reverse logistics MarketReverse Logistics Market

17.6 19.1

23.925.4

27.430.4 34.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Computer Peripherals WM FPD TV Set Top Boxes Mobile Phones

0.9 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.47.9 7.99.4

1011.3

13.616.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Computer Peripherals WM FPD TV Set Top Boxes Mobile Phones

Reverse Logistics – maintaining customer stickiness

(Rs

bn)

(Volm

nun

its)

26

Strength

An EMS supplier with leadership in 3 fast growing segments

Strong & sticky customer relationships

Economies of Scale

Cost efficiencies due to backward integration

Strong R&D capabilities, developed 20+ ODM solutions

Weaknesses

Client concentration, dependence on anchor customers

Relatively lower bargaining power in OEM business

Opportunities

Low penetration of consumer durables in India

Increasing localization due to Make in India, inherent cost advantage

Increasing demand for EMS services

Strategy of growing ODM revenues

Threats

Brands resorting to in house production

Increase in competition

Higher imports by OEMs

SWOTStrength

Opportunities

Weaknesses

Threats

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Source: Company, Axis Securities

SWOT Analysis

27

Robust growth in key segments to drive profitability

Key segments viz Consumer Electronics(40% FY19 revenues), Lighting

(31% FY19 revenues) and Home Appliances (13% FY19 revenues) to

continue contributing to top-line growth going forward

Operating efficiencies along with backward integration will lead to

higher contribution of operating profits by key segments

We expect increasing contribution to top-line from mobile segment led by

growth recovery aided by cost effective backward integration

Security systems is expected to grow faster (on a low base) with

increasing revenue share and improved margins

Reverse logistics, a strategic offering to maintain stickiness of OEMs, is

expected to return to positive EBITDA with improved margins

2,457 2,890 2,984

3,868

4,754

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Consumer Electronics Lighting Products Home Appliances

Mobile Phones Reverse Logistics Security Systems

Segment wise revenue Break-up Segment wise EBITDA contribution

Segment wise Margins

91 112135

181227

-100

0

100

200

300

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Consumer Electronics Lighting Products Home Appliances

Mobile Phones Reverse Logistics Security Systems

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Consumer Electronics Lighting Products

Home Appliances Mobile Phones

Reverse Logistics Security Systems

(Rs

bn)

(Rs

bn)

(%)

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

28

8161,119 1,220 1,410

2,4992,853 2,984

3,868

4,754

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net Sales ( Rs Cr)

Higher margin on increasing ODM support robust revenue growth

We expect top line to grow at a CAGR of 26 % between FY19-21E, on

strong growth in key segments Consumer Electronics, Lighting and Home

Appliances and new client additions across segments backed by rising

wallet share with existing customers

Additionally, we expect mobile segment to return to growth path, with

top-line CAGR of ~32% between FY19-21E led by company’s efforts to

add new popular clients

Security Systems segment to post robust growth going forward

contributing ~7% of top-line from current ~3.8% led by growing

demand for surveillance equipments

We expect EBITDA margins to improve driven by higher cost efficiencies

and growing share of ODM revenues

Strong growth in EBITDAHealthy top line growth

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Source: Company, Axis Securities

Increasing ODM share in revenues aid margin expansion…

22 2715 23

38

78 7385 77

62

0

20

40

60

80

100

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

ODM Revenue Share OEM Revenue Share

20 26 32 5991

112135

181 2272.5 2.3 2.6

4.23.7 3.9

4.5 4.7 4.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

FY1

3

FY1

4

FY1

5

FY1

6

FY1

7

FY1

8

FY1

9

FY2

0E

FY2

1E

EBITDA ( Rs cr) EBITDA (%)

(%)

29

New Client addition led to stretching of working capital in FY19 which

is expected to improve going forward

Improved collections and efficient inventory management along with

asset light nature of the business will allow Dixon to maintain lean

working capital days going forward

The recent government announcement of reduction in corporate tax

rate is expected to bring down effective tax rate positively impacting

EPS & Bottom line by ~9%.

With superior earnings growth led by strong order book and focus on

acquiring new clients we expect Dixon to report strong revenue

growth.

We expect PAT to grow at CAGR of ~42.8% between FY19-FY21E

Improving return ratios superior earnings trajectory

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Source: Company, Axis Securities

514 12

43 4761 63

98129

0

50

100

150

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

PAT (Rs Cr)

Lean working Capital days

10

14

10 107

13

1920

18

0

5

10

15

20

25

FY1

3

FY1

4

FY1

5

FY1

6

FY1

7

FY1

8

FY1

9

FY2

0E

FY2

1E

PAT to grow at CAGR of 42.8%

Astute working capital management with superior returns profile

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

RoE (%) Core RoCE (%)

30

Valuations

We estimate Dixon Technologies to post topline CAGR of 26%

and bottom-line CAGR of 42.8% over FY19-FY21E

We expect EBITDA margins to improve from 4.5% in FY19 to

4.8% in FY21E due to operating leverage

ROE is estimated to increase to 24% in FY21E from 18.2% in

FY19, while Core ROCE is expected to increase to 30.4% from

27.3% in FY19 driven by improved business performance

We value Dixon Technologies at 32x FY21E EPS as we expect it

to report Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 26%/30%/42.8%

respectively over FY19-21E and thus arrive at a price target of

Rs 3,649 ( 21% Upside)

Volatility in raw material prices

Competition from domestic and overseas players

Forex volatility

Customers resorting to higher in-house manufacturing

Change in government policies

Risk Factors

Valuation

12mth fwd P/E (x)

P/E band

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Source: Company, Axis Securities

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sep

-17

Nov-

17

Jan-

18

Mar-1

8

May-

18

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov-

18

Jan-

19

Mar-1

9

May-

19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

PE Mean Mean+1Stdev Mean-1Stdev

0

2000

4000

6000

Sep

-17

Nov-

17

Jan-

18

Mar-1

8

May-

18

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov-

18

Jan-

19

Mar-1

9

May-

19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Price 5x 10x 15x 20x

31

Financials (Consolidated)

Profit & Loss (Rs Cr) Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Source: Company, Axis Securities

Y/E March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net sales 2,853 2,984 3,868 4,754

Other operating income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total income 2,853 2,984 3,868 4,754

Cost of goods sold 2,741 2,850 3,687 4,526

Contribution (%) 3.9% 4.5% 4.68% 4.78%

Advt/Sales/Distrn O/H 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Operating Profit 112 135 181 227

Other income 4 6 5 7

PBIDT 116 141 186 234

Depreciation 15 22 26 34

Interest & Fin Chg. 13 25 26 24

E/o income / (Expense) 0 0 0 0

Pre-tax profit 88 94 134 177

Tax provision 27 30 36 48

PAT befor Comprehensive Income 61 63 98 129

(-) Minority Interests 0 0 0 0

Associates 0 0 0 0

Other Comprehensive Income (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 0.0

Adjusted PAT 60.8 63.3 98.0 129.1

Reported PAT 61 63 98 129

Y/E March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Total assets 363 535 616 731

Net Block 179 241 264 293

CWIP 12.8 18.8 30.0 32.5

Investments 17.2 9.7 9.7 9.7

Wkg. cap. (excl cash) 110 229 256 275

Cash / Bank balance 44.1 36.7 56.6 120.6

Misc. Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Capital employed 363 535 616 731

Equity capital 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3

Reserves 304 367 462 589

Pref. Share Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Borrowings 44 141 136 123

Def tax Liabilities 4.1 16.0 6.7 7.9

32

Financials (Consolidated)

Cash Flow (Rs Cr) Ratio Analysis (%)

Source: Company, Axis Securities

Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Y/E March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Sources 83 96 117 158

Cash profit 89 110 150 186

(-) Dividends 0 3 3 3

Retained earnings 89 107 147 184

Issue of equity 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Change in Oth. Reserves 55.9 2.7 0.0 0.0

Borrowings (2) (2) 5 (3)

Others (60) (12) (36) (22)

Applications 83 96 117 158

Capital expenditure 4.5 94.6 60.0 65.0

Investments 28.3 (11.0) 0.0 0.0

Net current assets 21.5 20.0 36.8 29.3

Change in cash 28.8 (7.4) 19.9 64.0

Y/E March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Sales growth 14.2 4.6 29.6 22.9

OPM 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.8

Oper. profit growth 22.8 20.4 34.2 25.5

COGS / Net sales 96.1 95.5 95.3 95.2

Overheads/Net sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Depreciation / G. block 7.4 7.5 7.6 8.4

Net wkg.cap / Net sales 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.07

Net sales / Gr block (x) 13.9 10.3 11.5 11.9

Core RoCE 34.9 27.4 28.6 30.4

Debt / equity (x) 0.13 0.36 0.28 0.20

Effective tax rate 31.0 32.5 27.0 27.0

RoE 23.7 18.2 22.9 24.0

Payout ratio (Div/NP) 0.0 4.3 2.7 2.1

EPS (Rs.) 54.8 55.9 86.6 114.0

EPS Growth 26.5 2.1 54.7 31.7

CEPS (Rs.) 67.1 75.0 109.2 143.7

DPS (Rs.) 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

33

Disclaimer

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Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables

Instead of a company visit, we have done a conference call with the company’s management.

34

Disclaimer

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Company Report16 OCT 2019

Dixon Technologies

Sector: Consumer Durables