Climate change and conflict: Approaches to peace building: Some

thoughts for discussion

Bishnu Raj Upreti, PhD, Conflict Management,Tel. 98510-75448

Nepal Centre for Contemporary Research (NCCR)Jawolakhel, Kathmandu

Tel. 5000053

Perspectives shared at the UMN’ regional meeting on 30th January 2014 at Kathmandu

Outline of presentation 1. Setting the context

2. Conceptualizing CC, conflict and peace

3. Linking CC, resource scarcity and conflict

4. Implications of CC: Some examples

5. Approaches to peace building

6. Conclusions

7. Ways forwards

Part One: Conceptualizing Conflict and climate

change

1. Setting the context1. Perspective of presentation

1. Social, not technical2.Part of ongoing research

2. Complex, contested, correlations less understood3. Conflict (why: Power, resource, position; how: feeling

of injustice and ... )4. Peace: state of mind, addressing structural and

proximate causes of conflict 5. 2 parts in the presentaion: Concepts and Approaches

CC and Conflict-Cooperation and

Peace

National level Local level

Regional levelGlobal level

State of resource scarcity

(current and projections)

Cooperation for conflict

resolution & peace

Tensions and confclit

Skewed access and control of resources

2. Conceptualizing CC, conflict and peace/cooperationCommitment in addressing resource scarcity implications

cooperation for peace

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Research, Innovation, new knowledge for cooperation for peace(addressing CC implications on natural resource conflict)

All components are interrelated and having effects or influence to each others

3. Linking CC, resource scarcity and conflict1. Difference: Social scientists v/s technical scientists v/s advocacy

(pressure groups)2. Global attention at political, policy and academic levels after Al

Gore’s ‘Inconvenient truth’3. Contestation in CC v/s climate variability and its conflict

implications 4. Politicized, vested interests-centered (Copenhagen failure)

response strategies conflict dimension ignored5. Power-based negotiation (weak counties v/s powerful, priority of

high risk v/s low risk countries, etc.) resource conflict dimension ignored

6. Less emphasis on examining relationship between CC and conflict-peace-security-stability

7. West dominated debate (resource, knowledge, access to Info.)

3. Linking CC, resource scarcity and conflict -2Demographic pressure: • Expected median projection of world population 9.1

billion by 2050 and Asia over 5.2 billion (Evans, 2010; UN, 2008).

• Rise in population size increase demand of more food, space (land), water, energy and other scarce resources stretch supply ultimately trigger fierce competition.

• Scarcity-led competition could possibly provide breeding ground for violent conflict.

• OECD countries and emerging economic powers: ‘BRICS’ countries exert further pressure on scarce resources for industrialization, mechanization and

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3. Linking CC, resource scarcity and conflict -3• IPCC reveals that resource scarcity can have effect on CC

and vice-versa. • The World Dev Report (WB, 2008): --> demand for food

and meat will increase by 50 percent and 85 percent respectively by 2030.

• International Energy Agency projects demand of oil will annually increase by 1 % between 2009 and 2030.

• The global average annual per capita water availability is estimated to fall from 6600 m3 in 2000 to 4800 m3 in 2025.

• UNESCO (1999) projects global water use will rise by 32 % between 2000 and 2025.

• According to UNDP (2006), global water use has been growing almost twice faster than the population growth

3. Linking CC, resource scarcity and conflict -4• Approximately 3 billion people are estimated to be living arid

or semi-arid areas with availability of less than 1700 m3 per capita water, which is a water stress condition ( annual per capita water availability base: 2000 m3).

• Effects of CC high in a situation of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity. South Asia is facing multiple stresses with low adaptive capacity = most vulnerable.

• CC risk analysis index (Bitter, 2010) shows that 5 (Bangladesh: 1st, India: 2nd, Nepal: 4th, Afghanistan: 8th and Pakistan: 16th) of the 16 extreme risk countries belong to South Asia.

• South Asia is already experiencing water stress with using 48% of available water resources. South Asian countries are heavily depending on groundwater for drinking water and irrigation. E.G., groundwater supplies have reached about 35% in Bangladesh, 32% in India, and 30% in Pakistan.

4. Implications of CC: Some examples

1. Nepal is IPCC “white spot”: warnings coming Observed trendsa. Increase natural calamities: Example: Koshi river

basin flood of 2008 and disaster in Sunsari district of Nepal and 14 districts of Bihar, India):

a. Huge displacement

b. Inundated more than 150 villages in Nepal and India

c. Estimate loss: multi-million dollars d. Massive displacemente. Diarrhea and communicable diseases f. Conflict and tension

4. Implications of CC: Some examples-2 B. Maize infertility crisis (scientists say pollens did not survive because of lack of

enough night temperature)C. The July 2010 floods in Pakistan (Photo next page):

– Approximately one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area (796,095 sq km) was underwater

– Directly affected about 20 million people, ten million people were forced to drink unsafe water

– Destructed more than 4 billions of worth of property and infrastructure with more than US$43 billion loss in total economic impact

D. Flood in Bangladesh and its effects – Highly prone to the flood related disasters situated in the Ganges Delta:

75% of Bangladesh is less than 10m above sea level and 80% is flood plain– Each year in Bangladesh about 26,000 km2, (around 18%) of the country is

flooded, killing over 5,000 people and destroying 7 million homes. – In 1998, the severe floods affected 75% of the country. – In 2007: Bangladesh was severely affected by flood and causes enormous

social tension because of damage fisheries, drinking water E. Maldives: Major threat

Photo: AP / B.K.BangashPhoto: AP / Mohammad Sajjad

Photo: Aftab Ahmed

Pakistan flood in July 2010 and its effects in people

Photo: Aftab Ahmed

4. Implications of CC: Some examples -3

• Extreme weather events (flooding, prolong draughts, blown of hot winds, hailstones)• ► social relations from protests by parties against

government/ruling parties • Water scarcity and agriculture ► food insecurity• Industrial use of water ► tension on priority• Water scarcity ► social fragmentation and tension

• Disputes on transboundary rivers:1. Sharing (for irrigation, hydro-power),2. Inundation of villages from dams3. flooding, sedimentation

• Psychological effects• Politicization: conflict and tension

• Inter-party tensions and militarization of youth• Social tension and resource shift (from basic services to

security/law and order)• Increase in trans-border crimes:

– smuggling of small arms (109 armed groups in Nepal), women trafficking, money laundering, smuggling of human organs.

• Increases in malnutrition, hunger and pandemic diseases from lack of availability sufficient food and quality drinking water (Karnali in 2009).

• Civil unrest/violence ►use of forces ► human rights violations (e.g., forest encroachment in far west in 2009)

• Int. relations: Perceived risks from both sides (e.g., Indian concerns and anti-Indian sentiment in Nepal while inundation)

4. Implications of CC: Some examples -4

4. Implications of CC: Some examples -5

1. Fuelling political conflict (CC effects are politicised, e.g., maize infertility crisis March 2010, Kailali forest encroachmentscandal, December 2009)

2. Emergence of armed groups (indigenous rights on land, water and forest; blame government for not caring victims, e.g. Koshi flood)

3. Providing fertile ground for politicsation (unions protested government and ruling parties clash and confrontationmass migration socio-economic impacts)

4. Social tension at community (Food crisis in Karnali-2009 and protest to WFP/Govt blame-counter blame: politicisation)

Part two: Approaches to peace building in the

situation of conflict over natural resources

5. Approaches to peace building in the context of 1st part

1. Engage in the key issues • Address root causes: malnutrition, hunger and pandemic

diseases from lack of availability sufficient food and quality drinking water.

• Control trans-border crimes– smuggling of small arms, – women trafficking, – money laundering, – smuggling of human organs.

• Address youth concerns: source of civil unrest and violence • Address CC-Conflict related migration and displacement • Shift investment priority

5. Approaches to peace building in the context of 1st part

2. Engage with key actors at local, national and regional levels

• Political parties and their sister organizations• Poor and marginalized people• Policy makers and practitioners• Researchers and academics• Civil society and interests groups in CC • Local communities, indigenous groups • International actors (aid agencies, diplomatic corps)

5. Approaches to peace building in the context of 1st part

3. Adapt regional approach • Control trans-border crimes

– smuggling of small arms, – women trafficking, – money laundering, – smuggling of human organs such as kidney.

• Develop and strengthen regional policies, institutions, legal arrangements and mechanisms

• Creation/strengthening of regional mechanisms (at state level, people’s level, research/academic level, advocacy level

5. Approaches to peace building in the context of 1st part

4. Promote local ownership (local approach) • Pro-poor focus: ensuring livelihood security of

poor/marginalized people• Identify vulnerabilities, priorities and constraints by

sector and country• Protecting and restoring eco-system integrity for

climate resilience • Use of conflict-sensitive and peace-promotive

development (health, NRM, environment and energy, infrastructures, transport, urban sectors)

5. Approaches to peace building in the context of 1st part

5. Promote research and capacity building (at all levels) • Investment in research (risk assessment, conflict and security

risks from CC, early warning, adaptation and mitigation) and education

• Strengthen evidence-based policy response: education and coalition building

• Promote collaboration between universities and think tanks and establish regional network

• Utilization of available capabilities/ resources (Build on available institutions, networks, resource and knowledge base)

• Sharing data and information

6. Conclusions1. Relations of CC and RS and their implication at social, political

and strategic levels is less understood 2. Scarcity not only exacerbate conflict but also promote

cooperation when political decision makers realize the cost of non-cooperation

3. Understanding political economy of CC is fundamental to develop regional collective response strategy to address conflict and promote peace

4. Anticipated technological innovations and consequent behaviour change of people to minimize CC effects

5. Need of more engaged debate in the South, going beyond disciplinary approach, promotion of transdisciplinary approach in research, policy and implementation of CC mitigation and adaption strategies

6. South Asia highly risky in CC effects and therefore highly potential for both conflict and cooperation at regional level

6. Conclusion-2

• S. Asia is facing: demographic pressures, resources scarcity, political tensions and insecurity (mainly Indo-Pak), insurgencies and armed conflict + climate variability/CC exacerbate socio-political tensions and conflict, if not cooperate for concerted action

• Basis for cooperation: addressing these implications/ consequences• Technological innovations (e.g., unimaginable advancement:

mobile phone 15 years back and now), • Adaptation (and mitigation) approaches • Alteration of consumption pattern and behavioural change• Creation of cooperation mechanisms and institutional

arrangements • Reorientation the debate from competition to collaboration

7. Possible ways forward1. Refine and integrate national climate change and conflict prevention and

peace promotion policy, strategy and regional harmonisation2. S. Asian countries to collectively and individually collaborate with other

countries to deal with CC, resource conflict and promoting peace3. Establish and functionalise regional cooperation mechanism such as South

Asia Climate Change Commission, South Asia Peace Commission, etc 4. Promote use of indigenous knowledge existed in the region and

strengthening its management5. Promote and strengthen capacity of research. So far it is more focused on

understanding of the CC. It has to expand to examine its relationship with conflict, peace and security.

6. Develop competent human resources at the national and regional levels (through education, training, awareness)

7. Promote concerted efforts of government, research and academics, private sectors and civil society (still segregation persists)

Thank you,

Comments and suggestions appreciated

In the following publications you can find more information on conflict,

peace process, federalism, small arms and security related issues in detail, if

you are interested

Some of the books of Bishnu Upreti that deal on the security issues

Thank you,

Comments and suggestions appreciated