Climate Change and Peak Oil Adaptation Plan November 2009

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November 2009

Climate Change and Peak Oil

Adaptation Plan

Authors

Pazit Taygfeld Donovan Burton

Climate Change and Peak Oil Adaptation Plan

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Climate Risk Pty Ltd. Sydney: + 612 8243 5767 Brisbane: + 617 3040 1621 www.climaterisk.net

Climate Risk Europe Limited London: + 44 752 506 8331 This report was prepared by: Pazit Taygfeld B.Env.Plan (Hons) [email protected]

Donovan Burton B.Env.Plan (Hons) [email protected] Peer Reviewed By: Dr Jago Dodson Senior research fellow, Urban research program, Griffith University - Nathan campus, Qld 4111, Australia Acknowledgements: The authors would like to sincerely acknowledge Libby Hynes for her valuable input into this report. We would also like to acknowledge the contributions from Darebin City Council staff, and other external stakeholders. This report was commissioned by: Darebin City Council Project Leader Libby Hynes General Manager Environment & Amenity Darebin City Council PO Box 91 Preston 3072 Disclaimer: While every effort has been made to ensure that this document and the sources of information used here are free of error, the authors: Are not responsible, or liable for, the accuracy, currency and reliability of any information provided in this publication; Make no express or implied representation of warranty that any estimate of forecast will be achieved or that any statement as to the future matters contained in this publication will prove correct; Expressly disclaim any and all liability arising from the information contained in this report including, without limitation, errors in, or omissions contained in the information; Except so far as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, accept no responsibility arising in any way from errors in, or omissions contained in the information; Do not represent that they apply any expertise on behalf of the reader or any other interested party; Accept no liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of that person, of any other person, placing any reliance on the contents of this publication; Assume no duty of disclosure or fiduciary duty to any party.

Climate Risk supports a constructive dialogue about the ideas and concepts contained herein. © Copyright Climate Risk Pty Ltd, 2009

PO Box 91 PRESTON VIC 3072 Telephone: 8470 8888 Facsimile: 8470 8877 TTY: 8470 8696

www.darebin.vic.gov.au

[email protected]


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Table of Contents

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 6

Addressing the problem at the Council level ........................................................................................... 6

Identifying the risks and vulnerabilities.................................................................................................... 7

Adaptation strategy................................................................................................................................. 8

Immediate – Commence actions 2009-2010 .......................................................................................... 9

Long Term- Commence actions 2013-2015 .......................................................................................... 21

Implementation ..................................................................................................................................... 22

Limitations ............................................................................................................................................ 22

1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 23

2.0 Climate Change Background ......................................................................................................... 23

2.1 Climate change projections and impacts for Melbourne/ Darebin ................................................... 24

2.1.1 Heat .............................................................................................................................................24

2.1.2 Fire ..............................................................................................................................................25

2.1.3 Precipitation .................................................................................................................................27

2.2 Policy Background and Implications for Climate Change (Federal and State Governments) .......... 28

2.2.1 Federal Government ....................................................................................................................28

2.2.2 State Government .......................................................................................................................30

2.2.3 Regional approaches ...................................................................................................................31

3.0 Peak Oil Background ..................................................................................................................... 32

3.1 Depletionists ................................................................................................................................... 32

3.2 Anti-depletionists ............................................................................................................................ 32

3.3 Peak oil supporting evidence .......................................................................................................... 32

3.4 Peak oil in Australia ........................................................................................................................ 34

3.5 Policy background and peak oil implications (Federal and State Governments) ............................. 35

3.5.1 Federal Government ....................................................................................................................35

3.5.2 State Government .......................................................................................................................36


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3.6 Establishing climate change and peak oil scenarios ....................................................................... 37

3.6.1 Climate change scenarios............................................................................................................37

3.6.2 Peak oil scenarios .......................................................................................................................37

4.0 The Importance of Local Scale in Responding to Climate Change and Peak Oil ................................ 40

4.1 Darebin City Council‘s actions on climate change and peak oil ....................................................... 41

5.0 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 44

5.1 Stage one- Establish the Context ................................................................................................... 44

5.2 Stage two- Identify, Analyse and Evaluate the Risks: The Workshop ............................................. 46

5.3 Stage three- Treat the Risks: Adaptation Plan ................................................................................ 48

6.0 Climate Change and Peak Oil Adaptation Plan .................................................................................. 48

6.1 Objective ........................................................................................................................................ 48

6.2 Framework/Overarching Principles ................................................................................................. 48

6.3 Treatment Type .............................................................................................................................. 51

7.0 Adaptation Actions - Local Government ............................................................................................. 53

7.1 Council Services ............................................................................................................................. 53

7.2 Emergency Services ....................................................................................................................... 55

7.3 Waste collection & disposal ............................................................................................................ 59

7.4 Infrastructure .................................................................................................................................. 61

7.5 Planning ......................................................................................................................................... 67

7.6 Organisational Knowledge and Capacity ........................................................................................ 71

8.0 Adaptation Actions - Community ........................................................................................................ 74

9.0 Adaptation Action- Business, Economics & Jobs ............................................................................... 79

10.0 Adaptation Actions- Environment................................................................................................... 83

11.0 Implementation and Key Performance Indicators ............................................................................. 86

Appendix 1: Local Government Action on Peak Oil (World Summary) ..................................................... 87

Appendix 2: Barriers to implementation of climate change policies .......................................................... 88

Appendix 3: Summary of risks identified in Darebin City Council workshop .............................................. 89


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Appendix 4: The Oil Depletion Protocol .................................................................................................. 101

Appendix 5: Findings from Council (Internal) Survey on Climate Change and Peak Oil ......................... 102

Appendix 6: Example of Audit Result Sheet (Excel) .............................................................................. 104

References........……………………………………………………………………………………………………126


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Executive Summary

Introduction Darebin City Council is committed to providing the necessary leadership and direction to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that the impacts of climate change are minimised. Council recognises that the benefits of acting now on climate change far outweigh the costs. Council has developed a Climate Change Action Plan for its own operations as well as the recently adopted Community Climate Change Action Plan which supports community action.

In addition to these actions Council recognises that it must plan for the predicted future changes and include considerations in our planning processes. In June 2008 Darebin Council resolved to develop an Adaptation Strategy for Climate Change and Peak Oil. While there is strong community and political awareness of climate change, the issue of peak oil is less well known. ―Peak oil‖ refers to the time when global oil production peaks and then starts to decline. After peak oil, petroleum products will become more expensive as demand continues to outstrip supply. There is growing expert consensus that peak oil will happen soon, possibly by 2010, with some claiming that the peak has already occurred. Most agree that immediate planning is required to ensure effective societal transition.

Although both issues present significant challenges in their own right, they are not mutually exclusive. They will both compete for management resources and present opportunities for combined adaptation. The aim of the Adaptation Plan for Climate Change and Peak Oil is for Council to mitigate risks and adapt to the impacts within Council operations and its community support services.

Transitioning to a lower energy future can provide many positives for Council and the community including reduced costs as well as better health outcomes. These benefits will be explored and promoted through the plan implementation.

Addressing the problem at the Council level

Until recently the majority of climate change discussions have been focused at the international and national levels. However, local governments have been taking actions to reduce greenhouse emissions from their own operations and supporting residents and businesses to do so for quite some time, including through the Cities for Climate Protection Program that was established in Australia in the late 1990s. The peak oil discourse is currently focussing on local government, largely due to the sector‘s responsiveness to the issue (see Appendix 1).

In recent years a discourse has emerged on the important role local government can play in climate change mitigation and adaptation (Bulkeley 2000; Burton & Dredge 2007). Climate change and peak oil are likely to impact upon many services provided by local governments, including, but not limited to: infrastructure, social & community, environmental, and emergency services. This means that local governments do not only carry a moral responsibility and a ‗duty of care‘ to respond to climate change and peak oil, but also are ideally placed to be at the forefront of climate change adaptation with their local knowledge and expertise and will be key sites of peak oil response.


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Identifying the risks and vulnerabilities

The occurrence of climate change and peak oil could potentially pose many risks to governments, industries, communities and individuals across the globe. There is now overwhelming evidence that global average temperatures are increasing as a result of anthropogenic interference in the earth‘s climatic system (Stern 2006; Pittock 2005; Stefan 2008), and oil production may peak this decade with the most optimistic projections indicating within the next three decades (Aleklett & Campbell 2003; IEA 2008; Hirsch et al. 2005; Bakhitiari 2006). Identifying the risks associated with climate change and peak oil is a complex task for a number of reasons. For climate change the key challenge is dealing with the uncertainty surrounding the projections, due largely to the complexity of the systems affected as well as the timing and scale of the anticipated changes. For peak oil, the key challenge stems from the scale of human dependency on oil, which implies that every consumer item and every economic sector is dependent on petroleum based products for manufacturing, distribution or operation. In addition, there are a range of uncertainties associated with the onset of peak oil in the context of a very fluid global energy security environment. Identifying the human activities which will be affected by climate change and peak oil is therefore a colossal task that is inevitably characterised by uncertainty. Nonetheless, it is now widely agreed that to reduce the scale of climate change and peak oil impacts, it is important to - (1) recognise what the key areas of risk may be; and (2) proactively address these risks through both mitigation and adaptation strategies. The process taken to identify these risks is described in detail in Section 5 (Methodology) of this report. A number of staff workshops were held to identify analyse and evaluate risks, and the resulting draft plan was verified by key stakeholders.

Key risk areas for Darebin City Council and its community

The key risks predicted to affect Darebin City Council and its communities are:

Continued reduced rainfall

Extreme weather including: Heatwaves, fire, intense rainfall and wind storms

Economic market impacts and availability of goods

Social and health impacts

Extreme weather events, storms, fire and flood will impact on buildings and infrastructure. Ongoing reduced rainfall will continue to affect recreation facilities and open space and impact on infrastructure including foundations and pipes. Peak oil will affect petrol dependent services including waste collection, street cleansing, vehicle fleet, meals delivery and home care, road and footpath construction and maintenance and parks maintenance. It will also affect the cost of products dependent on petro-chemicals including asphalt, waste bins, playground equipment, vaccines, herbicides and fertilizers.

Social and health impacts of Climate change may include heat stress, fuel poverty and other economic pressures. Peak oil will affect community transportation, food security (cost and supply), health and safety, economic pressures, housing affordability and community connectivity changes. This will, in turn, affect the support services required of Council to meet escalating community needs.


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Adaptation strategy

This report provides an adaptation plan which aims to address the risks facing Darebin City Council in relation to climate change and peak oil. The proposed actions were developed in response to risks that were ranked as extreme or high by Darebin City Council staff. In total, over 100 actions have been developed under six key treatment options, namely:

1. Spread Risk

2. Technical and Structural

3. Regulatory and Institutional

4. Avoidance

5. Research

6. Education and Behavioural.

A detailed description of each of these options is provided in Section 6.3 of this report. All actions were selected to ensure that they adhere to the following ten overarching principles:

1. Use an adaptive management approach, by continuing to review actions in the light of new

information.

2. Prioritise win-win or no-regret treatment options.

3. Avoid adaptation constraining decisions.

4. Ensure that Council‘s adaptive capacity is maintained to a level commensurate with adaptive

treatment options.

5. Ensure that decisions are aligned with Local, State and Federal Governments‘ requirements, but

recognise there may be circumstances where this is not feasible.

6. Maintain appropriate community and business participation including awareness raising and

education.

7. Council‘s responses must support building community and business resilience to climate change

and peak oil.

8. Where possible, decisions should remain compatible with existing non-climate change and peak oil

risk management strategies.

9. Tasks are clearly stated and assigned to relevant sectors.

10. Where appropriate, goals should be measurable and evaluated on a regular basis.

Further discussion on these principles is provided in Section 6.2 of this report.


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The following tables provide a summary of the proposed actions under the recommended

commencement time (Immediate: 2009-2010, Medium term: 2011-2013, and Long term: 2013-2015)1.

It also identifies the key authority(ies) responsible for leading the implementation of each action.

Immediate – Commence actions 2009-2010

Council Services Responsibility

1 Identify infrastructure and assets at risk (e.g. roads in flood prone areas) and infrastructure that poses risk (e.g. street debris, vulnerable trees) and develop long term plan to increase resilience. Undertake hazard audit and reduce hazard incidence (or hazard expenditure) by 5% by 2011, 15% by 2013, and 30% by 2015. Investigate and action when reductions are not achieved.

Community Assets and Leisure.

Corporate services

2 Review fleet and plant policies and practice to ensure that they are in line with adopted fuel and greenhouse emission reduction targets. Identify transition to higher efficiencies and alternative fuels where possible.

City Services

Corporate Services

Environment & Amenity

3 Continue Energy Efficiency and Carbon Neutral Buildings programs to reduce energy requirements. Identify sites that could be considered to transition to energy self sufficiency. Continue to invest in renewable energy.


Community Assets and Leisure

4 Educate Council staff so they are well positioned to identify and respond to potential climate change and peak oil risks.

Environment and Amenity

Corporate Services

5 Review street tree and planting policies in relation to adaptation issues. Develop tree data base including identification and scheduled treatment of vulnerable trees (to adapt to low water conditions, heat island reduction and reduce risk from storms and climatic conditions) including consideration of significant trees on private land . Scope opportunities for fruit and nut trees in public spaces to support urban food production.


Emergency Services Responsibility

6 Work collaboratively to support Victoria State Emergency Service and other emergency services (including healthcare, police, fire) to incorporate climate change and peak oil hazards into Emergency Management Plans. Identify areas where climate

Corporate Services

1 More details on recommended implementation times can be found in Section 11.0 (Implementation) of this report.


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change and peak oil specific considerations may be required. Use data obtained from Action 8 to identify best practice risk reduction measures.

Emergency Management

7 Review emergency response centre sites to improve resilience to climate change and oil dependency threats.

Corporate Services


8 Review and advocate for peak bodies (MAV) and State Government to review international and national emergency response case studies to identify best practice risk reduction measures.

Corporate Services

9 Work collaboratively and support key stakeholders: schools and education providers, aged care facilities and disability services & other agencies, and large shopping centres, etc, to educate the community about preventing casualties during emergency.

Corporate Services


10 Review Fire Management Plan and ensure that increased fire risk scenarios are considered and planned for.


Waste Collection and Disposal Responsibility

11 Continue to implement and review waste management strategy including: minimisation target and incentives to reduce waste (e.g. technology, service charges).


12 Provide information to public and businesses on waste minimisation. Review communication tools to maximise community knowledge.


13 Encourage Metropolitan Waste Management Group to investigate sustainable opportunities for energy including biofuel generation from waste sites.


Infrastructure Responsibility

14 Identify infrastructure responsibilities (e.g. State, Federal, and Local) and lobby State and Federal agencies to ensure that they are aware of adaptation issues and that their assets and infrastructure in Darebin meet the levels required under predicted conditions. Work collaboratively with these agencies to advocate that proposed strategies/policies do not constrain Council‘s adaptation responses to climate change and peak oil.


15 Investigate and prioritise critical Council and community infrastructure to ensure its resilience during extreme weather events and energy disruptions.




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16 Include adaptation issues in the Leisure Strategy: review to determine future adaptation requirements (e.g. increased use of indoor facilities, changed insurance, risk procedures, diversity of sports to reduce reliance on irrigated ovals).


17 Audit/measure the urban heat island effect in critical areas (e.g. community infrastructure, public transport nodes) and commence preparation of a strategy to ensure that temperature in these areas are mitigated (using shade, light colored paving, green roofs etc).


18 Continue to identify and implement energy, fuel and water efficiency improvements in Council‘s building portfolio and operations to reduce Council‘s exposure to anticipated increase in energy and fuel costs and water depletion.



19 Adopt the Oil Depletion Protocol by 2010, which calls for an annual 2.6% reduction in oil consumption within Council

operations2.


All departments

20 Lobby State Government to review current building and infrastructure standards to meet potential climate change impacts. Continue to offer incentives for achieving environmentally sustainable design requirements.


City Development

21 Ensure that strategic infrastructure development and maintenance plans include an assessment of climate change and peak oil.


22 Continue to develop incentive based policies and programs for community and business to adopt climate change and peak oil resilience measures (e.g. facilitate insulation, bulk roll outs of energy efficient technologies, and voluntary oil vulnerability audits for businesses).


23 Continue to review asset management and maintenance practices and prioritise at risk infrastructure (where appropriate use alternative materials to reduce fossil fuels dependence).


24 Continue to implement the Darebin Transport Strategy to reduce car use and support petroleum-free transport modes through: restructuring of local street environments, working with State Government Agencies and other stakeholders to prioritise sustainable transport modes across the transport network and implement behaviour change programs. Aim to ―double the share of walking, cycling and public transport trips for all trips and trips to work by 2027.‖


2 More information about the Oil Depletion Protocol can be found in Appendix 4


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25 Identify high users of fossil fuels (across Council) and investigate alternative materials to reduce the reliance on fossil fuel based supplies.

All Departments

Planning Responsibility

26 Investigate and facilitate transport structural improvements needed to ensure that transport facilities are appealing for community ridership (e.g. shelters with seats at all bus/tram stops, availability of maps and timetables at stops). Work with State Government Agencies to improve the coverage and service levels of public transport across the municipality.


27 Encourage Sustainable Tool for Environmental Performance Strategy (STEPS) for all new multi-unit developments including partial embodied greenhouse gas emissions accounting.

City Development

28 Review strategic planning goals and modify when necessary to ensure their compatibility with a carbon constrained future.

City Development

29 Continue to participate in Local Government ESD advocacy group to advocate for improved environmental legislation and support for better sustainability outcomes in built form (e.g. encourage the greatest energy and water efficiency, including stormwater harvesting in new and existing developments.

City Development

30 Consider flexibility for localised economy, including food production when reviewing planning zones, structure plans and strategic planning goals.

City Development

31 Balance planning scheme requirements to ensure that existing planning regulations do not become a transaction cost or hurdle for implementing resilience based strategies (e.g. heritage objectives may reduce water tank/solar panel).

City Development


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3 See: Dodson, J. and Sipe, N. (2008) 'Shocking the suburbs: Urban location, home ownership and oil vulnerability

in the Australian city', Housing Studies, 23(3): 377-401; and Dodson, J. and Sipe, N. (2008) 'Planned household risk: Mortgage and oil vulnerability in Australian cities', Australian Planner, 45(1): 38-47.

32 Investigate ways to increase planning support for low carbon businesses and those that provide energy efficient solutions (e.g. assistance with application processing).

City Development

33 Ensure appropriate development in risk prone areas (e.g. flood zone, poor public transport access) to guarantee that an adequate risk management approach is implemented prior to development approval.

City Development


34 Review national and international case studies on a regular basis to identify effective planning mechanisms that reduce vulnerability to climate change and peak oil.

City Development

35 Identify areas vulnerable to increased energy pricing (e.g. using advanced Vulnerability Assessment for Mortgage, Petrol and

Inflation Risks and Expenditure modelling (VEMPIRE)3.

City Development

36 Advocate for research undertaken by State and Federal Government around: sustainable precincts, sustainable buildings and sustainable renovations.

City Development



37 Establish tele-working protocols.

Corporate Services

38 Continue to provide and promote advice around sustainable and resilient buildings through planning and building processes.

City Development


Organisational Knowledge and Capacity Responsibility 39 Review Council insurance policies (including professional

indemnity) requirements for climate change and peak oil risks to minimise potential litigation.

Corporate Services


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40 Identify a data collection and dissemination method to ensure that relevant officers are informed of the latest data available on climate change and peak oil. Data collection should follow established themes of interest: for example: impacts, latest projections, adaptation options, etc). Special attention is needed to ensure quality of data and accessibility for relevant stakeholders.


Corporate Services

41 Establish a system for managing and storing the data collected, possibly a ‗one stop shop‘ website where decision-makers and their advisers can access the information.


Corporate Services

42 Promote resilience among Council workers, for example continue to encourage Council workers to use sustainable transport modes and consider proximity to work.

Corporate Services

43 Provide a yearly annual report to decision makers which summarises key impacts and options.

Adaptation Steering Committee

44 Work with Local Government Associations, State and Federal Governments and other institutions to identify best practice tools for organisational support.

All Departments

Community Responsibility

45 Advocate and lobby State and National Governments for large scale planning and communications regarding peak oil.


46 Ongoing review of building specifications for community infrastructure (Council owned) to ensure their resilience to extreme weather events.


47 Work collaboratively with State Government to develop heatwave plan and integrate it into existing Municipal Health and Emergency Management plans.

Communities and Culture

Corporate Services

48 Undertake scenario based planning exercises for changing demographics and identify how Council might respond to new trends.


Corporate Services

49 Investigate specific energy and oil use reduction targets for the community to encourage and support resilience.


50 Facilitate development of local economic networks through the City Development


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provision of technical, regulatory and knowledge based support.

51 Continue to encourage residential development in better serviced areas through structure and activity centre planning.

City Development

52 Undertake community survey to explore community needs under a peak oil scenario.


Communities and culture

53 Continue to advocate for environmental refugee status and adequate support for people forced to relocate due to the impacts of climate change. This includes supporting the Climate Displacement Coalition.



54 Engage with Darebin‘s Transition Town Movement and examine opportunities for collaborative work between Council and the community.



55 Advocate for, develop and support educational and training programs to re-skill Darebin‘s diverse community for living under carbon constrained economy (for example food production, trades etc.). Work collaboratively with NGOs, universities, State agencies, Neighbourhood Houses etc. to design these programs and ensure cultural relevance.



56 Develop/advocate for a communications plan to raise community awareness around Peak Oil issues



Business, Economics & Jobs Responsibility 57 Identify strategies and incentives to attract business, particularly

sustainable businesses (e.g. PV providers) to Darebin (refer to Action 32 for an example).

City Development

58 Continue to advocate for Government policy and investment in mechanisms to reduce community and business energy consumption.


59 Continue to identify and provide incentives for reduced energy consumption in business and industry (e.g. Darebin Climate Wise Business Program). Ensure that energy efficiency programs are well marketed.

City Development


60 Advocate for Government policy and investment to facilitate high efficiency/alternate fuel/ vehicles.



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Medium – Commence actions 2011-2013

Council Services Responsibility 65 Collaborate with insurers to remove or retrofit potential hazards

(e.g. vulnerable trees). Use data obtained from hazard audit (see Action 1)

Corporate Services

66 Continue to discuss reciprocal arrangements with neighbouring councils during emergencies to address possible disruption to essential services. Remain a party to MAV agreement to mutual aid.

City Services

Corporate Services


67 Prioritise essential services and create a contingency/business continuity plan to minimise disruption.

Corporate Services in conjunction with all departments

68 Ensure that no new Council structures and assets (especially emergency response centres) are located in high risk areas without appropriate design and contingency considerations.

Corporate Services


61 Conduct a comprehensive analysis of future budget requirements, taking into consideration: possible changes in revenue from rates, increased demand for services, and increased costs of infrastructure maintenance.

Corporate Services

Environment Responsibility 62 Work collaboratively with State Government, Melbourne Water,

Yarra Valley Water and businesses to increase resilience around low water availability.


City Services


63 Advocate for development assessment criteria to ensure that adequate water saving measures are embedded.


City Development

64 Complete the flood mapping of Council to identify flood prone areas and detail results in planning overlay.



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Emergency Responsibility

69 Review and upgrade Municipal Emergency Plan to take into account identified risks.

Corporate Services

Emergency management

70 Review provisions for energy independent buildings to maximise Council‘s ability to support emergency services and community during extreme events, and to minimise disruption to council services.


Corporate Services


71 Develop a contingency plan for sudden and severe fuel shortages (plan should consider things like: securing fuel for essential and emergency services; identifying ‗at risk‘ communities; reviewed locations for emergency centres; reciprocal arrangements with neighbouring councils during emergency; comprehensive fuel plan; etc).

Corporate Services

City Services

72 Advocate for preparation of an information sheet about peak oil and climate change emergencies. The information should include: clear triggers (e.g. what events trigger an emergency response), how to behave during emergency, council support services, etc. Prepare local information in the absence of development of information from other agencies.

Corporate Services

Emergency management

Waste Responsibility

73 Develop waste collection emergency plan. The plan may include: commence discussion with collectors about contingency pick up days, and reciprocal agreements with neighbouring councils and/or contractors.

City Services


74 Identify local and regional sites for emergency disposal. This may include reciprocal agreements with neighbouring councils.

City Services

75 Ensure procurement process for waste collection and receival contracts. Consider adaptation issues including energy efficiency and optimisation of kilometres travelled, alternative fuels, proximity and ability of facilities to withstand extreme weather conditions.

City Services


76 Investigate the potential to have self contained refuelling facilities at waste sites (e.g. biodiesel from green waste).

City Services

77 Examine options for on-site recycling.

City Services


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78 Ensure Metropolitan Waste Management Group consider and include adaptation issues in future planning and procurement processes.


79 Develop further waste minimisation incentives for business and community to reduce waste.



80 Review insurance policy for at risk infrastructure and assets and work with the insurer to ensure that coverage (including emergency clean up costs) is adequate.

Corporate Services

81 For external parties (e.g. Information Communication Technology providers), ensure that they are aware of climate change and peak oil risks and their ramifications for Council.


82 Continue to explore and discuss shared service arrangements with neighbouring councils and organisations/schools to minimise energy and/or water use (e.g. sports grounds.)


83 Continue to increase stormwater capture and harvesting and increase porous surfaces to reduce flooding.



84 Integrate climate change and peak oil into education and training for key professions, including engineering, architecture, and

planners4.

City Development


Planning Responsibility

85 Work with State Government and developers/land owners to identify low risk Brownfield sites for development.

City Development

86 Work collaboratively with Housing Associations and other relevant NGOs to lobby the State and Commonwealth governments to increase support for public and affordable housing options in well serviced areas.


87 Promote and encourage Information Communication Technology (ICT) to reduce private trips (e.g. tele-working).


Corporate Services

88 Identify potential sites to establish community gardens in each City Development

4 (COAG recommendations 2007).


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neighbourhood, and possible sites for generating alternative energy.

89 Review animal management strategy in relation to food husbandry in the context of an urban setting.


90 Advocate for affordable and/ or public housing as a proportion of all large development.


Organisational Knowledge & Capacity Responsibility 91 Review and modify (where needed) sectoral communication to

maximise cross fertilisation of ideas and strategies.

All departments

92 Ensure there is institutional support (e.g. guiding policies) for

internal adaptive measures (e.g. Telework protocols)5.

Corporate Services

93 Develop and implement a comprehensive communications strategy to raise awareness of climate change and peak oil impacts and the advantages of early attention to adaptation, including partnerships with key national professional and interest

groups to develop best practice networks6.


Corporate Services

Community Responsibility 94 Establish partnerships with State Government and other

community agencies to prepare for increase in demand for community based services (including aged care, health services, crime, etc.).


95 Identify and map ‗high risk areas‘ (aging population, low socio-economic), and plan for access and provision of temperature controlled community spaces/centres in these locations.



96 Continue to develop low-cost mobility strategies in line with the Transport Strategy and Community Transport to reduce household exposure to high transport costs.



97 Design a community guide for healthy living, and establish support network for communities at need.


5 Research suggests that without a telework protocol staff who undertake telework often miss out on promotions and bonding

with fellow workers. 6 (COAG recommendations 2007).


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Business, Economics & Jobs Responsibility 98 Work with trader/business groups and/or insurers to identify the

degree of underinsurance and un-insurance in the business community. (While this may not be considered Council role, it would be very useful for Council to know how vulnerable its community and businesses are).

City Development

99 Advocate for insurers and businesses to examine insurance thresholds and assessments in line with climate change and peak oil risks.

City Development

100 Advocate for efficient freight infrastructure

Community Assets and leisure

101 Facilitate awareness rising on the benefits of meeting insurers thresholds.

City Development

Environment Responsibility 102 Continue to work with relevant State Government department, and

NGOs to identify ways to maximise waterways protection.


City Services


103 Facilitate a transition to alternative water supplies for Council‘s maintenance work and potable water (e.g. water tanks).


City Services

104 Establish low to mid level water restrictions as water use standards.


105 Advocate for continued incentives and regulatory mechanisms to reduce business usage of potable water.


106 Review international and national water saving best practice examples.


107 Conduct climate change impact assessment for Darebin‘s most vulnerable open space areas, including the wildlife reserve at La Trobe University and the Leamington Street Wetlands.


City Services



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108 Advocate for, develop and support educational and training programs to re-skill the community for living with water constraints (work collaboratively with NGOs , universities, State agencies, etc.) to design these programs.


Long Term- Commence actions 2013-2015

Waste Collection and Disposal Responsibility 109 Investigate and implement engineering solutions to increase

capacity of existing waste disposal facilities to withstand extreme weather conditions.

City Services

110 Examine changed collection routines to minimise fuel usage (eg: fortnightly waste collections)

City Services


111 Continue to expand low water turf replacement in sports fields, consider artificial turf where appropriate. Review actions in open space strategy.


City Services

Community Responsibility

112 Continue to investigate ways to retrofit existing neighbourhoods to facilitate community interaction.



Environment Responsibility

113 Advocate for the implementation of appropriate guides, policies and approvals for people who have on-site fuel generation plants.



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Implementation

The implementation of this document‘s recommendations will require initial effort, recognition and support from all sectors of Council. The longer implementation is delayed, the greater potential for the materialisation of risks and lost opportunities. As there are a considerable number of identified risks the implementation of the action plan will need to follow a staged, triage approach as well as adhere to the principles of adaptive management. It must also be incorporated into mainstream Council planning processes to be successful. The following implementation actions are therefore recommended:

Adaptation action Responsibility Recommended Implementation commencement

Develop internal steering committee to meet quarterly to prioritise actions and review progress savings best practice examples.


2009-2010

Conduct a yearly review and report to Council

on progress.

A draft audit result sheet is included in Appendix

6 which allows for yearly evaluations and review

of measurable outcomes. The audit sheet also

allows for a review of operational expenditure

saved (or spent) over time.

Adaptation steering committee

2010-2011

Limitations

The following climate change and peak oil adaptation plan stems from a scoping investigation of the risks facing Darebin City. Although it was envisaged that a significant collection of risks exist, the scope of this project is limited, and continued risk assessment of climate change and peak oil risks is recommended to be ongoing.


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1.0 Introduction Darebin City Council is committed to providing the necessary leadership and direction to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that the impacts of climate change are minimised. Council recognises that the benefits of acting now on climate change far outweigh the costs. Council has developed a Climate Change Action Plan for its own operations as well as the recently adopted Community Climate Change Action Plan which supports community action.

In addition to these actions Council recognises that it must plan for the predicted future changes and include considerations in our planning processes. In June 2008 Darebin Council resolved to develop an Adaptation Strategy for Climate Change and Peak Oil. While there is strong community and political awareness of climate change, the issue of peak oil is less well known. ―Peak oil‖ refers to the time when global oil production peaks and then starts to decline. After peak oil, petroleum products will become more expensive as demand continues to outstrip supply. There is growing expert consensus that peak oil will happen soon, possibly by 2010, with some claiming that the peak has already occurred. Most agree that immediate planning is required to ensure effective societal transition.

Although both issues present significant challenges in their own right, they are not mutually exclusive. They will both compete for management resources and present opportunities for combined adaptation. The aim of the Adaptation Plan for Climate Change and Peak Oil is for Council to mitigate risks and adapt to the impacts within Council operations and its community support services.

Transitioning to a lower energy future can provide many positives for Council and the community including reduced costs as well as better health outcomes. These benefits will be explored and promoted through the plan implementation.

2.0 Climate Change Background

There is now overwhelming evidence that global average temperatures are increasing as a result of anthropogenic interference of the earth‘s climatic system (Stern 2006; Pittock 2005; Stefan 2008). Furthermore the IPCC Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report has recently shown, with very high confidence, that ―recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems‖ (IPCC 2007, p.3). The Earth‘s global temperature has warmed significantly over the past 100 years (IPCC 2007). The rate of change has not been uniform across the globe, with the northern latitudes experiencing greater warming than other regions. As shown by the IPCC, an increase in average temperatures may lead to potentially severe challenges for society and the natural environment (IPCC 2007).

On average the world is currently 0.74°C warmer than what it was a century ago (IPCC 2007). Current international negotiations are attempting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that is significantly below 1990 levels (up to 80% by 2050). However, due to the inertia of the global climate system it is generally accepted that average global temperatures will increase by approximately 1.5°C and 6°C by 2100 regardless of any mitigation actions (IPCC 2007; Hennessy 2008). Although it may seem small, 2°C is significant. As shown by Garnaut (2008, p.139) 1.8°C - 2.3°C warming means 10%-17% of the world‘s species becoming extinct and a 19% - 40% likelihood of irreversible melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. In addition, some argue that 2°C of average warming will lead to the beginning of ―runaway‖ climate change, where positive feedback mechanisms are triggered (such as the drying of the Amazon Rainforest or melting of permafrost).


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Even with major near term reductions of our current emissions, we still have locked-in impacts, due to the existing carbon loading in the atmosphere and climate system inertia. These changes generate a number of risks for the local government sector, which in many cases is deemed responsible for risk management in the local built environment. These risks must be considered and an appropriate response developed. Strategies to deal with climate change generally consist of two elements: adaptation and mitigation (Pittock 2005, p.7).

The IPCC defines adaptation as an ‗adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities‘ (Metz et al. 2001, p.708). This definition is expanded on by Adger et al. (2005) who state that ‗adaptation can involve both building adaptive capacity … and implementing adaptation decisions‘ (p.77). Mitigation is defined by the IPCC (Metz et al. 2001, p. 716) as ‗an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases‘, that is, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In a summary for the IPCC Banuri et al. (2001, p.52) advocate that adaptation and mitigation need to be considered together in any climate change response. The connection between adaptation and mitigation is often overlooked. Environmental lag time means that climate change is already here and that we have to adapt to current and future changes that are already locked in. Mitigation strategies attempt to reduce the severity of the impacts and ensure that any climatic change occurs within our capacity to adapt (Pittock 2005).

Further, there is a direct link between many mitigation actions and adaptation responses. For example energy efficiency programs (which reduce greenhouse gas emissions) can improve the weather proofing of buildings via insulation and draught proofing and reduce the impacts of increasing energy costs - both adaptation actions. Switching to renewable energy reduces emissions and supports the development of Australia's renewable energy industry - an adaptation response. Planting trees will absorb greenhouse emissions and create shade and address heat island affects. It is important to also ensure that adaptation responses are as resource efficient as possible and do not contribute unnecessarily to additional greenhouse emissions.

2.1 Climate change projections and impacts for Melbourne/ Darebin

2.1.1 Heat

In general the climate of Melbourne is expected to become hotter and drier. It is also expected that Melbourne will experience an increase in the number of days over 35oC with less cold nights. By 2030 the average annual temperature in Melbourne may increase by 0.6°C - 1.2°C on 1990 levels. By 2070, the temperature is expected to rise by a range of 0.9°C-2°C under a low emission scenario or around 1.8°-3.8°C under a high emission scenario (CSIRO 2007). Figure 1 shows annual average temperature projections for 2070 under the lower and higher emissions growth scenarios.

Probably the most significant temperature related hazard for the Melbourne area is the change in return rate of extreme heat days (or heatwaves). The definition of a heatwave differs across the globe, but generally it can be defined as a prolonged period of excessive heat. Heatwaves can have serious human health ramifications, especially on the elderly and infirm. They can also place considerable strain on infrastructure, energy supply as well as increase livestock and crop losses (Granger & Hayne 2001). For Melbourne, a high emissions projection shows that the average number of days over 35°C will increase from 9 to 20 by 2070. The latest heatwave in Victoria was recorded during late January and early February 2009, with temperatures soaring above 46°C in Melbourne. This heatwave had severe impacts not only on infrastructure, and energy supply, but also on human lives. The Victorian State Coroner announced a


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tripling of dead bodies being placed in the state mortuary during the heat wave7, and Ambulance Victoria

reported a 70% increase in emergency calls during the week8.

Figure 1: Annual average temperature change projections for 2070 under the lower and higher emission growth scenarios. Source: The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment (2008, p. 9).

2.1.2 Fire

It is well documented that increased temperatures are associated with increased bushfire danger (Hennessey et al 2007; Pitman et al 2007). A recent Australian study predicted that under A2 emissions scenario there could be a 100% increase in bushfire and grassland fires across Australia (Pitman et al. 2007). Victoria is sensitive to bush fire risk. According to the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment (2008, p14):

Relative to the climate of 1974 to 2003, by 2020 it is expected that the number of „extreme‟ fire danger days will generally increase by between 5% and 40%. By 2050, under a low emissions growth scenario, the number of „extreme‟ fire days is likely to increase by between 15% and 25%, while under a higher emissions growth scenario, the number of days is likely to increase by between 120% and 230%.

For the Melbourne region the number of ‗extreme‘ fire danger days is expected to increase by between 12% and 38% by 2020, and by between 20% and 135% by 2050.‘ (The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment 2008, p. 7) (Figure 2).

One of the most significant impacts of the latest heatwave experienced in Melbourne in early February 2009 were the associated fires, which claimed the lives of over 170 people and injured 500 more9. The fires have also destroyed at least, 2,029 homes, 3,500 structures in total and damaged thousands more, leaving an estimated 7,500 people homeless10. The impacts associated with the latest Victoria‘s bushfires are summarised below:

4500 km² (450,000+ ha) of land burned out

7 http://www.theage.com.au/national/heatwave-puts-morgue-under-pressure-20090206-7zo9.html. (13/03/2009)

8 http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25001958-2682,00.html. (13/03/2009)

9 http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?Document_ID=19190. (13/03/2009)

10 News.com. 2009-02-26. http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25109443-421,00.html (26/02/2009)

http://www.theage.com.au/national/heatwave-puts-morgue-under-pressure-20090206-7zo9.html

http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25001958-2682,00.html

http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?Document_ID=19190

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25109443-421,00.html


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Over 3,500 structures destroyed, including:

o Over 2,029 houses

o 59 commercial properties

o 12 community buildings (including 2 police stations, 3 schools, 3 churches, 1 fire station)

o 399 machinery sheds, 729 other farm buildings, 363 hay sheds

o 19 dairies, 26 woolsheds

Destruction or burn out of:

o 25,600 tonnes of stored fodder and grain

o 2 km² (190 ha) of standing crops

o 1680 km² (168,000 ha) of pasture

o 8 km² (735 ha) of fruit trees, olives and vines

o 70 km² (7,000 ha) of plantation timber

o 39 km² (3,921 ha) of private bushland

o 2,150 sheep, 1,207 cattle, and an unknown number of horses, goats, alpacas, poultry and pigs

o 8,000 km of boundary and internal fencing

o Significant loss of wildlife including many endangered species

o Impact on waterway and water reservoirs11.

Figure 2: Monthly average Forest Fire Danger Index (FDI) at Melbourne for “now” (1974-2003), 2020 and 2050, based on Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM Mark 3) climate change scenarios.

11

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Victorian_bushfires#cite_note-homeslost-12 (13/03/2009)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Victorian_bushfires#cite_note-homeslost-12


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Source: Hennessy et al. (2005, p.8).

2.1.3 Precipitation

Australia is a dry continent. Any changes in precipitation are significant for human settlements and agriculture. According to the CSIRO it is anticipated that Victoria will experience a 4% decrease in annual rainfall by 2030, compared to 1999-2005 levels. By 2070, this figure is expected to increase to 6% under low emission scenario or 11% under high emission scenario (The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment 2008, p. 8). Reduced rainfall, or number of days between rainfalls can also impact on costs and maintenance in the built environment from a drying of soils impacting on built infrastructure to reduced potable water and environmental flows.

Even though decreased rainfall is expected, modelling also predicts storm and rainfall intensities are likely to increase when rain does fall. With intense rainfall comes flood. Global flood catastrophes have increased over the past three decades and it is predicted to continue (especially with the onset of sea level rise and increased urban development). As shown by Hennesey et al (2006) a 25% increase in the duration of a 30 minute rainfall event can see a 1 in 100 year flood event becoming a 1 in 17 year event.

For the Melbourne region the impacts of changes to precipitation is likely to pose significant challenges to the potable water supply, water for irrigation and environmental flows. Over the next 40 years the demand for water is anticipated to increase by up to 6.5%, with supply being reduced by as much as 35% (Howe et al 2005). Figure 3 illustrates the reduction in yearly inflows (nearly 30%) into Melbourne‘s major water storages over the last decade. It is also anticipated that the potable water supply may see an increasing occurrence of contamination from algal blooms and bushfire runoff. The decline in water availability is also likely to be exacerbated as a result of increased evaporation rates. Data provided by the CSIRO indicates that the annual average potential evaporation by 2030 is likely to increase by around 3% (1% to 5%), with the largest changes expected in winter. By 2070 evaporation could increase by 4% (1% to 8%) under a lower emissions growth scenario, or by 8% (2% to 16%) under a higher emissions growth scenario (The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment 2008, p. 11). As shown in the recent Garnaut Review (2008) climate change could potential reduce irrigated agriculture by 50 % by 2050 and 92 % by 2100. Any of these scenarios paint a bleak picture for the economic stability for Melbourne under a ‗business as usual‘ approach.


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Figure 3: Annual inflows to Melbourne’s water storages. Source: The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment 2008, p. 8.

2.2 Policy Background and Implications for Climate Change (Federal and State

Governments)

Federal and State climate change policies and regulations are being created at a rapid rate. In the past year the following significant Federal and State policies and regulations have been created and/or amended for the consideration of climate change.

2.2.1 Federal Government

1. National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Act 2007 – This Act is designed to support the

collection, reporting and auditing of data by greenhouse gas (GHG) polluters over a pre-defined

threshold. It is still ambiguous as to the obligations of Local Governments under this Act12,

however at current emission levels Darebin is unlikely to be considered under this legislation

2. Mandatory Renewable Energy Target 20 (MRET20) – Commonwealth‘s commitment for 20%

renewable energy by 2020.

3. Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) – This is the Australian emissions trading scheme.

Companies (including some local councils) who emit over a pre-determined threshold will have to

purchase the right to pollute. These permits will be auctioned quarterly and can be traded

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A key issue is whether local governments are ‘constitutional corporations’, and therefore subject to registration and reporting duties under the NGER Act. A

‘constitutional corporation’ is defined under the NGER Act as a corporation to which paragraph 51(xx) of the Constitution applies, that is a ‘trading or financial corporation formed within the limits of the Commonwealth’. Whether or not a local government is considered to be a trading or financial corporation will depend on the particular profile of the individual local government and will require consideration of whether any of its activities are ‘trading activities’. Any local governments that are unsure whether their activities will see them categorised as a trading corporation should seek legal advice. ( go to: http://www.dlaphillipsfox.com/article/272/Local-Government-and-the-National-Greenhouse-and-Energy-Reporting-Act-2007 for further information)


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nationally and internationally. The Commonwealth Government is committed to implementing a

system to reduce national greenhouse emissions under the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme

(CPRS) by July 2011. This trading scheme is a market based mechanism which aims to reduce

carbon pollution by creating a cap on total national greenhouse gas emissions across a wide range

of economic sectors. The CPRS program presents two main challenges for local governments.

Firstly, there is the cost associated with recording and auditing the emissions and this is unlikely to

impact on Darebin as no landfill is operated by Council. Secondly, the biggest challenge for local

government from a carbon pollution scheme arises from increased costs associated with waste

disposal, construction, energy supply, fleet and fuel costs for the services that it provides to the

community. Although the Commonwealth has indicated that there will be no net increase in

transport fuel costs for the next three years, it is possible that it will rise after a transition time. With

oil vulnerability on the horizon, this problem is further exacerbated within the community, who

already feel the strain of increased fuel prices, are demanding more public transport services and

facilities.

The cost of emissions under a CPRS scheme will be decided by the market, together with

Government imposed price caps. A report, produced by The Municipal Association of Victoria

(MAV) in 2009, examined the financial implications of carbon emissions trading on Victorian

councils, revealing the following results:

Table 1: Summary of impacts on Victorian councils costs from carbon prices of $25 CO2e per tonne and

$40 CO2e per tonne

Impact on Total

Expenses @

$25 CO2e per

tonne

Impact on

Rates @ $25

CO2e per tonne

Impact on

Total

Expenses @

$40 CO2e per

tonne

Impact on

Rates @ $40

CO2e per tonne

Automotive fuel 0.05% 0.08% 0.10% 0.17%

Construction 0.50% 0.83% 0.80% 1.32%

Gas & Electricity 0.26% 0.43% 0.41% 0.68%

Waste Disposal 0.94% 1.55% 1.50% 2.48%

Sub-total 1.75% 2.89% 2.81% 4.64%

Other Contracts &

Materials

unknown Unknown unknown unknown

Total Potentially 2.0% Potentially 3.3% Potentially 3% Potentially

4.95%

Source: The Municipal Association of Victoria (2009).


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In the short term, the carbon price for the first year of the scheme is proposed to be capped at $10/tonne. Thereafter the cost of carbon will depend upon on the trajectory of emission cuts as set out by the government. There are several important challenges presented to Council in preparing itself for changes which may be at or even beyond the regulatory horizon. In the short term, emission policies will be driven by political considerations including election commitments, international negotiations, and the influence of impacted groups. In the medium and long term it is worth remembering that the objectives of carbon constraints are the avoidance of ‗dangerous‘ levels of climate change. The European Union has defined dangerous levels of climate change as greater that 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This figure is based on the risk of unlocking significant positive feed-backs in the global climate systems which will lead to irreversible or ‗run-away‘ climate change.

Australia will tend to be a ‗target taker‘ of agreements which are established by larger economic blocks and enforced through trade access or sanction. If Australia followed the United State‘s anticipated 80% national emission cuts by 2050, it would equate (on a per capita basis) to 83% cuts in Australia. The European Union‘s position based on avoiding the 2°C warming requires an Australian emissions cut of the order 90% by 2050. The implementation of national and international targets will depend on the participation of developing countries like India and China. Whatever the 2050 targets are, there is little doubt that they will be deep and will change the face of the international economy.

2.2.2 State Government

1. Our Environment, Our Future- Responding to the Challenge of Climate Change In 2006 the Victorian Government released ‗Responding to the Challenge of Climate Change‘ (Victorian Government 2006). This document is part of a greater initiative taken by the Victorian Government to secure a sustainable future for the State. The document details a list of actions that can be taken by industry, government and the community to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and provides a range of incentives to support these actions. It also identifies what actions the State Government is currently taking or is intending to take to address climate change. The State of Victoria currently has limited statutory requirements for climate change adaptation. However there are a range of policy directions that may soon hold a statutory force. Current state considerations include:

incorporating climate change projections into sustainable water planning;

improving water use efficiency;

developing a heat wave response plan for Victoria;

detailed mapping and assessment of potential climate change vulnerabilities along the coast, including the impacts of sea level rise, storm surge, erosion and flooding; and

reviewing flood and bushfire management plans.

(The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment 2008, p.12).

2. Victorian Climate Change Green Paper

The Victorian Government has recently released a Climate Change Green Paper. The Green Paper outlines the risks facing our state and the likely impacts of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, and also proposes ways Victoria can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to the impacts of climate change and become a leading low carbon economy. Consultation will be undertaken till October 2009 with a white paper currently proposed to be released in late 2009. The paper notes that one of the strongest roles for the Victorian Government will be in the area of adaptation as impacts are best


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managed at the local or regional level. The paper also notes that local government is a critical partner in the response to climate change and that local governments are best placed to address local climate change impacts and to build community capacity to respond and adapt to climate change.

2.2.3 Regional approaches

1. Northern Alliance for Greenhouse Action (NAGA)

The Northern Alliance for Greenhouse Action (NAGA) is one of six regional greenhouse alliances of local governments and other organisations that were initially supported by Victorian Government funding and are now self sustaining. NAGA‘s members are the Cities of Banyule, Darebin, Hume, Manningham, Melbourne, Moreland, Whittlesea, Yarra and Nillumbik and Moreland Energy Foundation (MEFL). NAGA began operating in 2002 as an informal network to share information, coordinate community emissions reduction activities and research and develop innovative corporate emission reduction projects. NAGA‘s goal is to achieve significant greenhouse abatement by delivering effective programs and leveraging council, community and business action. NAGA is currently developing a Towards Zero Net Emissions Strategy that investigates large scale emission reduction opportunities across the northern region of Melbourne. Actions identified under the Towards Zero Net Emissions Strategy form part of Darebin's Climate Change Action response and are relevant to this strategy (Strategy to Council in June).


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3.0 Peak Oil Background

The term peak oil refers to the point when half of the world‘s total oil reserves have been depleted. At this point production can no longer continue to increase to meet increasing demand. After reaching this point, removing the remaining oil becomes technically challenging, increasingly energy intensive and less economically viable. The peak oil theory is based on the fact that oil is a non-renewable resource, and hence, its production is constrained by ‗the immutable physical laws of depletion‘ (Aleklett & Campbell 2003, p.5). When we will reach this point is a topic of much debate and some uncertainty, mainly because of the absence of reliable data about the world‘s oil reserves. Peak oil does not mean that the world is about to run out of oil but scarcity and cost will present challenges. The discussion about peak oil is typically dominated by two opposing groups: those who believe that we have reached or are close to reaching the peak - the ―Depletionists‖; and, those who assert that there is still much oil to be discovered and extracted- ―Anti-depletionists‖ and that the problem of peak oil will not need to be seriously addressed for decades. Such distinctions within petroleum sector debates were fairly clear in the period 2004- 2008 however there has been a degree of convergence since that period.

3.1 Depletionists

Many depletionists have oil industry experience, such as Colin Campbell (retired petroleum geologist with 40 years experience with some of the world‘s largest oil companies), Kenneth Deffeyes (formerly of Shell Oil and now Princeton University), the late Ali Samsam Bakhtiari (Corporate planning director at Iran‘s National Oil Company), and Matthew Simmons (leading energy industry financier and a former energy advisor to the Bush administration) (BTRE 2005,p.4). This group believes that the world‘s total oil or ―Ultimate Recoverable Resource‖ (URR) is about 1.8 trillion barrels, and that peak oil has either occurred or will occur within the next decade.

3.2 Anti-depletionists

This group typically comprises of international agencies and oil industry groups, often with vested interest in maintaining consumer confidence and status quo. These include the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S Geological Survey (USGS), and Cambridge Energy Research Association (CERA), as well as individual peak oil sceptics. This group asserts that the world‘s total oil endowment is larger than 3 trillion barrels and that peak oil is not likely to occur within the next 30 years. It is important to note that more than half of these 3 trillion barrels of oil are expected to be derived from undiscovered oil fields (USGS 2000, p.55 (AR1). There is evidence of a less conservative view emerging from some key anti-depletionists. For example the International Energy Agency typically took a dismissive view of depletionist arguments during 2004-2008. However, following a revision of the supply projection methodology in 2008, the IEA has become far less certain of the continuing availability of petroleum at current volumes and prices. The IEA‘s head of economic forecasting, Fatih Birol, has been quoted as suggesting that petroleum depletion is likely to accelerate from 2020 onwards.

3.3 Peak oil supporting evidence

Much of the debate over peak oil concerns the scale and quality of global petroleum resources, the rate at which they can be extracted and the volume of the ‗ultimate recoverable resource‘ (URR). Conventional assumption that the world‘s URR exceeds 3 trillion barrels has been strongly rejected by peak oil theorists for the following reasons:


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1. Since 1960, the discovery of new oil fields has been declining, despite significant advances in exploration technologies (Strebowski 2005; Tsoskounoglou et al. 2008). Furthermore, oil fields that have been discovered since 1960 have been smaller and less productive. According to Harper (2004), the average size of new finds has fallen to one fifth over the last 50 years. Similarly, the productivity of some of the larger fields discovered, such as those in the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil, has been compromised due to technological challenges in accessing these reserves as they are located at a depth of 2000m (Tsoskounoglou et al. 2008).

2. The production capacity of many of the world‘s ‗Super Giant‘ oil fields, which currently supply about

60% of the world‘s oil is viewed by many analysts to be in decline (Robelius 2007; IEA 2008). These include, but are not limited to Saudi Arabia‘s Ghawar, Mexico‘s Cantarell and Kuwait‘s Greater Burgan oil fields (Hirsch 2008; Bakhatiari 2006; Simmons 2002).

Figure 5: Average observed oil field decline rate by year of first production Source: International Energy Agency (2008: Key Graphs).

Figures published by the International Energy Agency in 2008 confirm that ‗the average production-weighted observed decline rate worldwide is currently 6.7% for fields that have passed their production peak.‘ (IEA 2008, p.43). Similarly, post peak decline rate of production of 800 oil fields including the world‘s 54 super giant oil fields is averaged at 5.1%, of which 3.4% attributed to giant oil fields, 6.5% for giant fields and 10.4% for large fields (IEA 2008). The IEA acknowledges that these estimates may be a third higher if periodic investment is not considered, reaching a 9% average. These figures correlate with estimates published by some peak oil theorists, who estimated the post peak rate of decline at 8%-16% per year (Hirsch 2008). In its latest report, the IEA warns that the implications associated with such decline rates are very serious: ‗investment in 1 mb/d of additional capacity— equal to the entire capacity of Algeria today — is needed each year by the end of the projection period [up to 2030] just to offset the projected acceleration in the natural decline rate‘ (IEA 2008, p.43). Given the declining rate of new oil discoveries, the compromised productivity of new and existing fields, and the ever increasing demand for oil (fuelled by rapid economic growth in India and China), peak oil theorists argue that an addition of 1million barrels per day of oil every year is unlikely to materialise. More so, the IEA estimated that in order to meet the world‘s growing demand for energy; a massive investment of $26.3 trillion will be needed between 2008 and 2030. Given the current global financial crisis, it is highly unlikely that this level of investment will take place in the near or medium-term future (IEA 2008, p. 40).


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Therefore, it can be deduced that peak oil will occur during this decade, (if it has not already occurred) or according to the most optimistic projections, within the next three decades. Table 1 provides an overview of peak oil projections from a wide range of sources including individual experts, energy advisory organizations, oil companies, governments and analysts firms. Table 1: Peak oil projections

Source of Projection Projected Date Source of Projection Projected

Date

Individual Experts Government

A. Bakthiari 2006-2007 Dutch Government (IEA HI copy)

After 2030

M. Simmons 2007-2009 French Government 2020-2030

C. Skrebowski 2007-2010

K. Deffeyes 2005-2009 Analyst firms

J. Laherrere 2010-2020 HIS Energy 2011-2020

P. Odell 2060 Douglas Westwood 2010-2020

B. Pickens 2005-2007 Energy Files 2010-2020

M. Lynch After 2030 PFC Energy 2014-2025

C. Campbell 2010

S. Al-Husseini 2015 Energy Advisory Organisations

J. Gilbert 2010 World energy Council After 2020

T. Petrie Before 2010 Energy Research Centre Netherlands

2010-2035

CERA After 2020

Oil Companies ASPO 2010

CNOOC 2005-2010 IEA deferred investment scenario

Around 2020

Total 2020-2025 IEA high resource case After 2030

Shell After 2025

BP We cannot know Other Organisations

Exxon-Mobile After 2030 Volvo 2010-2015

Ford 2005-2010 Source: Koppelaar (2005, p.7).

The data provided in Table 1 reveals, that although there are some variations in the projected dates for the peak in global oil production, many sources agree it can occur within the next decade and the most optimistic opt for within the next three decades.

3.4 Peak oil in Australia

Over the past three decades, Australia has enjoyed high levels of oil self-sufficiency, with domestic oil production meeting between 80 to 90 percent of the national demand (Robinson & Powrie 2004). However, Australia's domestic oil production is declining after peaking in 2000 (APPEA 2006). In 2008, only 53 percent of the national demand for oil was met by domestic production, and it is anticipated that by 2019, this figure will drop to 27 percent (ABARE 2008, p.15; Geoscience Australia 2005, p.99).


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Australia's decline in oil self sufficiency is occurring due to a combination of factors: an annual increase of 2.4 percent in demand; declining oil production from existing fields; and, the slow discovery of new fields (Geoscience Australia 2005; APPEA 2006). Oil is expected to comprise 47% of Australia's demand for energy by 2030 (ABARE 2007. p.3: energy projections to 2029). Consequently, Australia's reliance on foreign oil places it in a vulnerable position relative to the predicted decline in the global oil production and supply.

3.5 Policy background and peak oil implications (Federal and State Governments)

To date, the topic of peak oil has received only minimal attention from the Commonwealth and Victoria State Government. This lack of attention and acknowledgement of peak oil may present some challenges to local governments attempting to address the topic, particularly in relation to transportation. While local governments attempt to reduce car dependency in their municipalities by introducing a range of initiatives and strategies, the Commonwealth and state governments continue to support fossil fuel subsidies and investment in road infrastructure, thereby reducing the effectiveness of these attempts. The following section provides a brief overview of federal and state policy initiative relevant to peak oil. The lack of planning for a major societal transition is a concern for the whole country.

3.5.1 Federal Government

1. Fossil fuel subsidies

The Commonwealth Government provides a range of financial support for the development, production and consumption of fossil fuels in Australia. The support for the petroleum industry alone was estimated at approximately $8 billion during 2005-2006, and was comprised of three key subsidy categories: producer subsidies, consumer subsidies and road transport subsidies (Riedy 2007, p.iii). Australians currently pay considerably less for fuel than consumers in other OECD countries due, in large part, to low fuel taxes (Australia Government 2004, p.12). It is argued that the provision of this level of support for the fossil fuel industry encourages the use of petroleum based fuels while impeding the development and uptake of alternative fuels in Australia (Dennis 2003; Kilsby 2005; Reidy 2007).

A delay in the development of alternative fuels is likely to have serious implications when peak oil eventuates because it would:

increase Australia‘s vulnerability to disruption in oil supply and higher oil prices.

reduce the economic viability of alternative fuels, because it increases the cost associated with their production under an energy constrained economy.

increase the risk of energy shortages and prolongs the period of high fuel prices because there is a significant lag time between the development and uptake of new fuels.

2. Auslink and commonwealth funding for roads

Auslink is a Commonwealth government initiative which provides fiscal support for the development of road and rail infrastructure across Australia. For 2008-09 the Australian government allocated more than $2.6 billion for roads and rail under Auslink, and just under $3.2 billion for other road projects, which include state and local roads (Australian Government 2008). Auslink‘s focus on road infrastructure has raised concerns that such initiatives increases the vulnerability of Australia‘s transport task to oil shortages by promoting the use of roads and ignoring the need to use an integrated transport approach (The Institute of Sustainable Future 2003; Milne 2008).

Hopes that funding allocations for transport may change under the current Rudd Government – that is, more support for sustainable forms of transport- have not been fulfilled, and the emphasis on large road projects continues. In its first budget, the Rudd Government announced that eighty percent of the total spending on transport will go to roads, while only 4% will be spent on rail infrastructure. Furthermore, over


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the coming years, the proportion allocated to roads is set to increase, while rail funding will decrease. The latest budget figures confirm the favourable trend towards supporting road infrastructure, with the allocation of almost $3.5 billion for road projects compared with only $1.850 for rail and port infrastructure combined (Australian Government Budget 2009-2010). The Government also failed to remove the Fringe Benefits tax concession for private car use, a subsidy which directly encourages people to drive more to get more off their tax.

3. National Energy Security Assessment (NESA) and National Energy Policy- Framework 2030

The NESA report (2009) identifies key strategic energy security issues in the liquid fuels, natural gas and electricity sectors currently, and those likely to influence the level of energy security in 5 years (2013), 10 years (2018) and 15 years (2023). The findings of the assessment in relation to oil security are somewhat confusing and are in conflict with the assumptions that underpinned the assessment. For example, while the assessment acknowledges that Australia‘s increasing reliance on oil produced in unstable geopolitical region may result in price volatility and that oil production trends are in decline (p.9), it still concludes that liquid fuel security within the next 15 years will remain high to moderate.

This finding is also reflected in the National Energy Policy -Framework 2030, which provides an overview of the policy directions to be set in the White Energy Paper (due to be released at the end of 2009). A revision of the National Energy Policy suggests a ‗business as usual‘ approach in relation to oil.

4. Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)

The CPRS is Australian emissions trading scheme, which will commence in 2011. This Commonwealth initiative prescribes that companies who emit over a pre-determined threshold will have to purchase the right to pollute. These permits will be auctioned and can be trading nationally. The implementation of the CPRS is likely to increase fuel prices, however, according to the findings from the National Energy Security Assessment (NESA 2009), will have a relatively minor impact on the market for alternatives and demand side responses (p.10). The Government is proposing the increased price of fuel will be offset by cuts to the fuel excise for the first three years of the CPRS - so no impact on consumers via the CPRS in this timeframe is anticipated.

3.5.2 State Government

1. Melbourne 2030 Plan

This is a strategic planning policy framework aiming to address the challenges facing Melbourne metropolitan areas up to 2030. The strategy focuses on four Transit Oriented Development (TOD) principles:

concentrating development in existing areas and curbing greenfield development;

promoting development within designated activity centres accessible by good public transport;

establishing urban sprawl boundaries; and,

protecting open space.

Although the plan advocates TOD principles, it was criticised for its focus on the construction of roads over the improvement of the region‘s public transport infrastructure (Mees 2003) and its ignorance of peak oil and energy security issues. The Victorian Government has recently launched the Victorian Transport Plan and announced a planning update to Melbourne 2030 entitled Melbourne@5Million which includes creation of six Central Activity Districts (CADs) and the expansion of the urban growth boundary.


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2. Transport infrastructure spending

The Victorian Government transport budget allocation for 2008-09 supports public transport. The government announced that it will invest $794.1 million to improve the state‘s public transport system and to increase its capacity to cope with the growing patronage. This figure is higher than the funding allocated for road construction. However, total investment in roads is likely to be higher after the contribution from the Commonwealth Government, and it is important to note that the Victorian Government still promotes road construction, and is dismissive of peak oil.

3.6 Establishing climate change and peak oil scenarios

The establishment of scenarios is a common practice when conducting strategic planning under uncertainty. By reviewing a range of scenarios, decision makers are challenged to 'think the unthinkable, to suspend disbelief, to let go of long-held mindsets and assumptions and let their imagination explore new horizon and consider possible futures‘ (Blyth 2005, p.2). As both climate change and peak oil present many uncertainties, and thus challenges for strategic planning, it is worth considering future directions under well defined assumptions or scenarios. This section discusses how and which scenarios were used in the development of this adaptation plan.

3.6.1 Climate change scenarios

It is difficult to determine the exact climate change scenarios that Darebin faces. There are more than 20 internationally recognised models, each with a range of uncertainties. Most climate change models are based on the IPCC emissions scenarios – all of which world emissions are tracking above. Furthermore, climate change model results do not include most elements of the anticipated positive feedback mechanisms (such as drying of the Amazon rainforest or thawing of Siberian permafrost). These uncertainties are exacerbated with attempts to downscale results to the local level. Considering the above uncertainties, this project assumes the worst case scenario presented by the climate change models and general scientific literature. The climate change risks for Darebin were based on identifying the weather and climate change related risks that Council and surrounding community was vulnerable to.

3.6.2 Peak oil scenarios

It is widely recognised that there is a disagreement by experts as to the exact date of peak oil. Despite this, the actual occurrence of this phenomenon is not debated. Peak oil will happen, and even with the most optimistic projections taken into consideration, the world has a relatively short time (in planning terms) to prepare.

In addition to the timing of the peak and our preparedness for it, the nature, or the pattern, of the decline is also important. Mitigation or adaptation strategies will vary significantly depending on whether the decline is sharp or gradual. For example, a sharp decline in oil is likely to trigger a national response and the need to implement crash programs to mitigate the potentially devastating social and economic consequences. On the other hand, a gradual peak will enable more carefully planned and managed response. Similarly, the social and economic ramifications associated with either a rapid or slow decline are also likely to vary significantly. This factor has recently been acknowledged by the U.S Government Accountability Office (GAO, 2007) who stated that ‗‗the rate of decline after a peak is an important consideration because a decline that is more abrupt will likely have more adverse economic consequences than a decline that is less abrupt.‘‘ The timing of the peak is also an important factor. Occurrence within the next decade (or 3) will find the world unprepared and will cause significant difficulty and hardship. Whilst there is no certainty associated with this factor, policy makers have a responsibility to protect the public from the potential adverse consequences of a particular risk, even when there is no scientific consensus about the timing, nature or


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consequences of that risk. Therefore, we must begin planning for peak oil now to avert the most painful social and economic ramifications. Robert Hirsch, an energy adviser and the author of a major report Peaking in oil production: impacts, mitigation, & risk management, commissioned by the US Department of Energy, identifies three plausible planning scenarios for peak oil. Hirsch‘s scenarios represent three plausible oil depletion scenarios, based on his observations of past peak events in the U.S and Europe. Hirsch's models are:

1. Plateau 2. Rollover

3. Sharp Break

1. Plateau

The Plateau scenario has the following characteristics:

fluctuating oil production

volatile and unpredicted oil prices

some investment in alternative fuels is occurring

policy makers may fail to interpret the fluctuation in production, believing that a short term increase means Business As Usual

potential to misinterpret fluctuation as temporary due to geopolitical issues, hurricane activity, and

other external factors

2. Rollover

The Rollover scenario has the following characteristics:

a gradual but significant increase in oil prices

a gradual decline in production (the rate of decline depends on the projection, but it may vary between 2% -6% per annum)

moderate level of economic distress

during the rollover period, there is a gradual transition into alternative sources of fuel

fuel availability in becoming constrained as governments start rationing its supplies


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3. Sharp Break

The Sharp Break scenario has the following characteristics:

oil production decreases substantially over a short period of time.

the rate of decline in production depends on projections, but the greater the rate of decline, the earlier the break.

National governments rationing oil

Marked increase in oil related conflict

economic meltdown, as oil becomes more and more expensive

snow ball economic reaction: increase in the price of foods, medicine,

serious social ramification: flow-on effect from economic crisis, decrease access to goods and services, unemployment, depression, social unrest.

An extensive revision of the peak oil literature coupled with observations of present trends in oil production and exploration, suggests that we are currently experiencing the characteristics of the plateau scenarios, with some observation suggesting that a decline in production is already occurring across a wide range of oil fields around the world. Based on these observations, it is most logical to focus our mitigation and adaptation strategies in accordance with the assumptions that underpin Scenario One. In addition, in the event that a sharp decline in oil availability occurs, Council‘s capacity to respond is limited. In such event, national strategies are likely to play an important role in shaping what responses can be implemented. Nevertheless, this adaptation plan will identify a number of measures that can be undertaken in order to prepare for such a scenario, and respond to it when it occurs.

Production


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4.0 The Importance of Local Scale in Responding to Climate Change and

Peak Oil

Until recently the majority of climate change discussions focused on the international and national level.

However, local governments have been taking action to reduce greenhouse emissions from their own operations and supporting residents and businesses to do so for quite some time, including through the Cities for Climate Protection Program that was established in Australia in the late 1990s. The international debates and negotiations have played an important role in recognising the

depth and breadth of the climate change challenge. The situation with peak oil is somewhat different, with actions being predominately taken at the Local Government level, with the exception of Sweden, who set itself a goal to become an oil free society by 2020. A list of municipalities from around the world that took the challenge to respond to peak oil is provided in Appendix 1. Other national plans aiming to address peak oil are predominately focused on contingency planning, and are largely influenced by the IEA‘s publication “Saving Oil in a Hurry” (2007), which examines a number of oil saving methodologies and their effectiveness. More recently, however, a discourse has emerged on the local government role in climate change mitigation and adaptation (Bulkeley 2000; Burton & Dredge 2007). Climate change is likely to impact many services provided by local governments, including, but not limited to: infrastructure, social & community, environmental, and emergency services. This means that local governments do not only carry a moral responsibility to respond to climate change, but also are ideally placed to be at the forefront of climate change adaptation with their local knowledge and expertise. Recognising the role of the Local Government Authority does not in any way negate the importance of strategies at other scales State and Federal action is very necessary. Betsill (2001) highlights the need for integration across scales of governance stating that without support from the higher order scales appropriate mitigation and adaptation may not occur.

There are many reasons why responding to climate change and peak oil at the local government level is beneficial and necessary. In his guidebook, Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty, Lerch (2008) explains why municipalities should respond to these challenges, and what are the benefits associated with taking action at the local level of government. Lerch‘s discussion focuses on four key issues:

1. It is in every municipality‘s best economic interest: virtually everything that cities do to respond to

energy and climate uncertainty will save them money in the long run.

2. Higher level government cannot see the details that local governments can.

3. There is often a time lag for responses from higher level government.

4. Municipalities are uniquely suited to meet certain societal needs: a municipal government, with its

local experts, local accountability, local information, and most especially local interests at heart,

has the flexibility, capacity and motivation to address issues in ways that larger governments

cannot (Lerch 2008, p.27).

While responding to climate change in Australia at the local government level has been encouraged by the Commonwealth Government through a range of incentives and regulatory requirements, the topic of peak oil has received only minimal attention at the Federal and State levels. Nevertheless, there is a growing number of councils across Australia that have acknowledged the challenges peak oil and climate change


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are posing to their operations and constituents. These Councils include: Brisbane City Council (Qld), the City of Maribyrnong (Victoria), Marrickville City Council (NSW) and Darebin City Council (see next section for details).

4.1 Darebin City Council’s actions on climate change and peak oil

Darebin Council views climate change as a critical and urgent issue for the Darebin community. Darebin is taking leadership action in tackling emissions from Council‘s own operations and in delivering a variety of programs to assist residents to reduce emissions. In 2007, Darebin City Council adopted Darebin‘s Climate Change Action Plan (June 07 – June 09) – Achieving Darebin Council‘s 2010 Target and Identifying Future Directions. The plan adopted actions to ensure Council was making significant progress in reducing our own emissions before taking further leadership action in relation to community emission reductions. The Plan has achieved:

A 16% reduction on greenhouse emissions in 2007/08 compared to the previous year

A very successful energy efficiency program that has achieved an overall energy reduction in our top 11 energy using sites

Purchase of 100% GreenPower for all Council owned and managed facilities from 2008/09

Winner of the Local Government Professionals Association Award for Excellence in the Sustainability Initiative category, and

Achievement of Council 2010 reduction target one year early

The Plan commits to a target of carbon neutrality for Council operations by 2020. This will be achieved by:

Continuing and expanding Council‘s energy efficiency program

Designing new Council facilities for carbon neutrality

Pursuing the upgrade of street-lighting to energy efficient options, and

Purchasing offsets for residual emissions only

The plan identifies the energy hierarchy as a guiding principle to emission reductions. In priority order:

Conserve energy – use only what is needed and avoid wastage

Energy efficiency – use necessary energy as efficiently as possible

Renewable energy – purchase GreenPower – accredited renewable energy for electricity needs, and/or small-scale renewable installations

Offset residual emissions – offsetting involves investing in emission reductions offsite through accredited tree planting or energy efficiency programs. Offsetting is a good option only for those residual emissions that can‘t be addressed through conservation, efficiency or renewable energy.

The Climate Change Action Plan 2007-09 also documented the community programs that Darebin is currently delivering that assist residents in reducing emissions and included actions for the development of the Community Climate Change Action Plan and Adaptation Strategy. A Community Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) has recently been developed with extensive community input and was adopted by Council in June 2009. The Plan recommends that Council endorse a community target of zero net emissions by 2020 and that Council promote this target and Climate Change Action to the Darebin community. The three key strategic directions of the Action Plan are to deliver targeted programs, advocate for climate change action, and support community networks and engagement.

Darebin Council has taken significant

action to reduce their emissions.


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The CCCAP outlines the key priorities and programs for Council to best support the Darebin community to reduce emissions. These programs include: - working with disadvantaged and vulnerable members of the community to help them adapt to climate change impacts and increasing energy costs; - working with Darebin businesses and industry to help them reduce emissions and running costs; - engaging and working more effectively with Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) communities; - facilitating a broad scale roll-out of Solar Hot Water; and - advocacy work on climate change issues will continue to be an ongoing priority for Darebin. Darebin Council is also taking proactive steps to prepare for the implications of Peak Oil through a range of programs, which include: transport strategies, energy-efficiency programs for the Council fleet, food security initiatives, an environmental purchasing policy and community education programs. Council supported activities and programs, which have ancillary benefits for climate change and peak oil, are outlined in the following table.

Council Activity

Description and Progress

Municipal Public Health and Wellbeing Plan

Council‘s Municipal Public Health and Wellbeing Plan will be designed to identify existing and emerging public health priority areas and provide a range of preventative and responsive strategies to enable people to achieve their maximum wellbeing. The plan is currently under development. A draft is due for Council consideration in late 2009. The current Municipal Health Plan is titled Community Health and Safety Framework 2005-2009

Drainage strategy The Drainage Strategy sets the policy around drainage issues in the municipality. The strategy has recently been reviewed recognising the impact of climate change and new water sensitive urban design (WSUD) techniques. It recommends a number of key improvement actions consistent with adaptation response.

Council Plan

The newly adopted Council Plan 2009-2013 includes the following strategies ― We will undertake long term planning to ensure our municipality continues to function effectively in the face of impacts of climate change and peak oil.‖ And ―We will undertake effective and informed advocacy and engagement in wider environmental debates‖.

Incorporation of Environmentally Sustainable Design (ESD) in operations, strategies

An ESD matrix is being developed in 2009/10 to further guide building design and retrofitting in Council buildings. The Municipal Strategic Statement (MSS) will be reviewed in 2009/10. This constitutes Council's core land use planning document. Under planning legislation, Council creates structure plans for precincts and these have been a reference to incorporating ESD into structure plans.

Sustainable Design Assessment

Ongoing. The Sustainable Design Assessment program provides residents and developers with computer tools to assess the environmental performance of new developments and expert advice on improving environmental outcomes of new developments. Council encourages and supports developers in using the tools for planning permit applications but cannot require their use.

Darebin Transport Strategy 2007-2027 and associated Travel Behaviour Change programs

Completed and under implementation. Darebin‘s Transport Strategy (DTS) seeks to reduce the need for car based transport by consolidating urban development in Activity Centres and along Public Transport corridors, and by integrating land use planning with transport planning. The DTS seeks to promote sustainable transport modes of walking, cycling and public transport, reducing environmental impacts and improving public health, accessibility, social inclusion and supporting economic growth. A key aim is to reduce dependence on private car transport. There is an identified need to improve the effectiveness and coverage of public transport services within Darebin as well


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as improve walking and cycling facilities. Darebin is currently implementing a range of innovative travel behaviour change programs for the community including:

Love Living Local - A travel behaviour change program that encourages people to reduce their car use by helping them discover how many services are on offer in their ‗own backyard‘. The City of Darebin has received funding from the Victorian Government, under the Local Area Access Government Grants Program, to conduct ‗Love Living Local‘.

School Travel Planning working with schools to develop a travel plan with the school community.

Going Places – Darebin‘s Travel Reward Scheme - is an award winning web-based program which rewards people for making two less drive alone trips each week.

Darebin and Banyule Good Food Alliance. & Development of a food security strategy.

The Darebin and Banyule Good Food Alliance focuses on programs to increase food security, primarily in the East Reservoir (and West Heidelberg) Neighbourhood Renewal areas. The Good Food Alliance aims to: support people in making healthy lifestyle choices; improve access to local healthy foods; and, provide information on fresh foods and nutrition. The Alliance is developing a Food Security Strategy. Current activities include: supporting schools involvement in healthy eating initiatives; looking into food co-operatives as a way to buy fresh fruit and vegetables; research into current costs, locations and accessibility of emergency relief; transport barriers to shopping; and, family healthy eating habits.

There are currently seven community gardens in Darebin and they all have waiting lists. Demand for community gardens and other solutions for growing food locally on public and private land is expected to increase. The East Reservoir Neighbourhood Renewal Project has recently received $48,000 funding from the Victorian Government for a community garden in the East Reservoir area. Consultation and scoping of potential sites is underway. The community gardens network is currently supported by Health and Community Services.

Flood Mapping Two thirds of the City of Darebin will be mapped by June 2009 and the remaining third is hoped to be completed in the following financial year.

Water Maps (requirement of the water authority)

Water Maps have been developed for all water intensive sites in conjunction with Yarra Valley Water and identify water savings actions and opportunities. These maps have been developed and are being implemented for all facilities requiring these (pools, golf courses and large parks).

Asset Management Plans (AMPs)

Darebin is developing AMPS for roads, drainage, buildings and open space. These plans include provisions for adaptation response and identify actions and further review required. The Road Asset Management Plan (RAMP) has been developed in 2009.

Community Power Program

The program aims to increase the awareness and uptake of GreenPower by residents and businesses. The program is a partnership between Darebin, Moreland and Whitehorse Councils, the Moreland Energy Foundation and Origin.

Sustainable Homes Program

Sustainable Homes helps residents take action to make their homes, workplaces and communities more sustainable. Participants take part in workshops, complete self audits and commitments, and receive free Sustainability Starter kits. The program is offered by the Cities of Darebin, Banyule and Whittlesea and residents can voluntarily partake in the program. The program will be reviewed in late 2009.

Sustainability Street

Funded program completed. A program (with regional roll out by NAGA) that encourages local streets / communities of residents to work together on environmental and sustainability improvements. A community development approach is used.

Spring into Compost

The Spring into Compost program offered Darebin residents compost bins and worm farms at reduced rates with free delivery. The program was advertised through Sustainability News, Darebin News, the local papers and Council‘s website.


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5.0 Methodology

This report outlines a climate change and peak oil adaptation response from Darebin City Council. The process of developing a climate change and peak oil adaptation framework for Darebin City Council followed three key stages:

1. Establishing the context

2. Identifying, analysing and evaluating the risks

3. Treating the risks (developing an adaptation plan)

This process is based on the Federal Governments AS/NZS 4360:2004 proposed methodology for climate change risk management. The risk management approach is illustrated in the diagram below (see Figure 6).

Figure 6 - Steps in the Risk Management Process Source: Adapted from Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government (2006, p.19).

5.1 Stage one- Establish the Context

To establish the context for this adaptation plan, Climate Risk P/L reviewed relevant literature, as well as engaged with a range of experts in the fields of climate change and peak oil. For peak oil, three scenarios were established, based on credible scientific information (see Section 2.7.2 for scenarios). After consultation with Council staff, it was decided that climate change scenarios will not be included due to the uncertainties associated with existing scenarios (see Section 2.7.2 for more details). Instead, a worst case scenario was assumed based on climate change models presented in CSIRO 2007 - Climate Change in Australia Summary.


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A number of Council specific documents were also reviewed to ascertain what is currently being done within Council to address climate change and peak oil. Similarly, State and Federal Government climate change and specific legislations, policies and regulations were examined to identify what obligatory requirements Council is expected to meet when addressing these issues. The documents reviewed include:

Darebin Climate Change Action Plan

Darebin Transport Strategy and associated Travel Behaviour Change Programs

Darebin and Banyule Good Food Alliance Melbourne Draft Climate Change Adaptation

Report

Climate Change Action Plan Annual Review (Council‘s internal document)

Darebin City Council Annual Report 2007-2008

Statistical data for Darebin area

Community Climate Change Action Plan (Final Draft)

National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Act

Mandatory Renewable Energy Target 20 (MRET20)

Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)

Our Environment. Our Future- Sustainability Action Statement 2006: Responding to the

Challenge of Climate Change.

draft regional NAGA Towards Zero Net Emissions strategy

Australia‘s Future Oil Supply and Alternative Transport Fuels – Final Report 2007

Auslink

Subsidies that Encourage Fossil Fuel Use in Australia

Fuel for Thought (CSIRO 2008)

Victoria‘s Transport Infrastructure Spending

Melbourne 2030 Plan

Based on this information, an issue paper was prepared and administered to Darebin City Council staff members who would participate in a risk assessment workshop. The revision of these documents also informed this adaptation plan.


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5.2 Stage two- Identify, Analyse and Evaluate the Risks: The Workshop

On the 12th of December 2008, Climate Risk P/L facilitated a workshop aimed to ascertain Darebin Council‘s vulnerabilities to climate change and peak oil. This was achieved by identifying Council specific risks associated with these events. The workshop was supported by a ‗pre-reading‘ document (issue paper) for the participants which covered generic information about climate change and peak oil. The document also outlined some of the hazards facing local governments under a climate change and peak oil future. The workshop was divided into two main phases:

Phase One- climate change and peak oil risk assessment; and, Phase Two- climate change and peak oil risks confluence.

In Phase One of the workshop, participants were separated into four groups. The first two groups were asked to identify risks associated with Climate Change, and the remaining groups were asked to identify risks associated with peak oil. Risks under primary, secondary and tertiary hazards were identified (see Appendix 7 for a discussion about different types of hazards). Participants were also asked to rate these risks according to the likelihood and the consequence of their occurrence. The higher the number received, the greater the risk. This is in accordance with the AS/NZS 4360 risk assessment standard (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Risk Priority Level Matrix Source: adapted from Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government.

The risk priority values in Figure 7 can be interpreted as follows in Figure 8


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Figure 8: Risk Priority Values Source: adapted from Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government.

In Phase Two, the participants were divided into two new groups, and were asked to identify the confluence issues between climate change and peak oil, and the risks associated with these confluences. During the workshop participants identified 62 climate change related risks. Of these, 30 risks were identified under primary hazards, 18 under secondary hazards, and 14 under tertiary hazards. For peak oil, participants identified a total of 44 risks. Of these, 15 were themed as related to social and health issues, 21 were associated with local government, and 8 were related to economic, business and jobs. In addition to these risks, participants also identified 19 confluence risks for climate change and peak oil. A summary table of all risks (climate change, peak oil and confluence) can be found in Appendix 3. Following the workshop, Climate Risk P/L reviewed the risks identified, and summarised the findings. Climate change related risks were summarised according to their risk rating under four categories:

1. Extreme

2. High

3. Medium

4. Low

In total, nine climate change related risks scored an extreme ranking, 33 high, 13 medium, and four low. Peak oil related risks and confluence issues were reviewed and themed under three main headings:

1. Social and Health

2. Local Government

3. Economic, Business and Jobs.

This information was used as the foundation for the next step phase - the development of an adaptation plan for climate change and peak oil.


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5.3 Stage three- Treat the Risks: Adaptation Plan

During this stage Climate Risk P/L together with representatives from Darebin City Council examined the risks identified during the workshop and formulated a list of actions that can be used to mitigate or adapt to them (see Section 5.0 for more details). This adaptation plan relates only to the risks that were rated ―extreme‖ or ―high‖ in the risk assessment workshop. A second workshop was held in Darebin on the 18th of March 2009, aiming to address the following issues:

to introduce adaptation framework;

to gain an understanding of strategies that are currently being taken by Darebin City Council to

address climate change and peak oil;

to identify critical gaps in risks identified during the risk assessment workshop; and,

to review draft adaptation actions against the principles underpinning the adaptation strategy.

The majority of the participants in the workshop were staff from Darebin City Council, with the exception of

four external stakeholders. 13

Following the workshop, Climate Risk P/L reviewed the findings and modified the adaptation plan in response to the comments made by the participants. A draft adaptation plan was the sent to Council for comment.

6.0 Climate Change and Peak Oil Adaptation Plan

6.1 Objective

To identify a framework and pathway to adapt to the impacts of climate change and peak oil within Darebin Council operations and its community support services.

6.2 Framework/Overarching Principles

The framework of the climate change and adaptation plan follows ten overarching principles. Whilst the adaptation plan is designed to be flexible to allow for a cyclic approach it is envisaged that the overarching principles are maintained within the life of the adaptation plan. The ten principles, described in further detail below, are:

1. Use an adaptive management approach.

2. Prioritise win- win or no-regret treatment options.

3. Avoid adaptation constraining decisions.

4. Ensure that Council‘s adaptive capacity is maintained to a level commensurate with

adaptive treatment options.

13

External participants included: 2 representatives from SAS, 1 representative from Darebin’s Community Reference Group for Climate Change, and 1 representative from Darebin’s Disability Advisory Group.


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5. Ensure that decisions are aligned with Local, State and Federal Governments‘

requirements, but recognise there may be circumstances where this is not feasible.

6. Maintain appropriate community and business participation including awareness raising and

education.

7. Council‘s responses must support building community and business resilience to climate

change and peak oil.

8. Where possible, decisions should remain compatible with existing non-climate change and

peak oil risk management strategies.

9. Tasks are clearly stated and assigned to relevant sectors.


It is important to note that some of the principles may not be relevant in some instances. For example, if Council is dealing with an internal issue, community and business participation (Principles 6) may not be applicable.

1. Use an adaptive management approach

The term adaptive management refers to a cyclic process whereby solutions are continually explored in light of new information, and existing strategies are monitored to ensure that they deliver their intended outcomes. The implementation of an adaptive management approach is beneficial for managing risks under uncertainty, as it allows an organisation to gradually adapt to a changing environment as new data becomes available (Tompkins & Adger 2004).

2. Prioritise win- win or no-regret treatment options

Priority will be given to win-win and no-regret treatment options. The Australian Greenhouse Office defines ‗win-win‘ treatment options as ‗measures that address the targeted climate change [and peak oil] risk while also having other environmental, social or economic benefits.‘ It defines ‗no-regret‘ treatments as ‗measures that should be undertaken anyway, regardless of whether climate change is an issue‘ (Australian Greenhouse Office 2006, p.50). Examples of ‗win-win‘ and ‗no-regret‘ options are provided in the box below.

Win-win treatments

Adopting waste minimisation strategies help reduce greenhouse gas emission as well as

costs associated with rubbish collection and processing under oil constrained economy.

Investing in alternative modes of transport (cycling, walking) that contribute to better

physical and mental health.

No-regrets treatments

Measures that may require initial capital investment, but reducing overall costs in the

longer term (Australian Greenhouse Office 2006, p. 51). For example: investigating

options for producing energy from landfills, or investing in renewable energy (e.g. solar

panels for electricity generation).


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3. Avoid adaptation constraining decisions

Adaptation constraining decisions are those decisions that can reduce the organisation‘s adaptive capacity. For example, releasing land for residential development in a flood-prone area will reduce Council‘s ability to minimise flooding damage to residential properties. Another example could be through the creation of more roads, or widening of roads, which subsequently may lead to an increased exposure to long term maintenance costs. These issues often arise in Australian councils through what is known as the ‗silo‘ effect – whereby one council department makes decisions without consideration of the ramifications it may have on another.

4. Ensure that Council’s adaptive capacity is maintained to a level commensurate with

adaptive treatment options.

The term adaptive capacity refers to Council‘s ability to adjust and respond to the challenges it is facing. A

study by the Municipal Council of Victoria examined the barriers/ challenges facing Local Governments

when attempting to address climate change are. Their findings are summarised in Appendix 2, and

suggest that Councils‘ response ability is influenced by a number of key factors including:

in-built flexibility and resources (including financial, human, and other supportive services);

the level of councillors and community support for action;

information availability to relevant staff and stakeholders;

level of concern and awareness; and

level of Commonwealth and state governments leadership and support.

Although not identified in the survey, it is also important to note that the level of threat and risks, not associated with climate change and peak oil, may also influence Council‘s capacity to respond. For example, Council may be highly vulnerable to the current global economic crises, with many councils throughout Australia losing significant sums of invested funds and depreciation of asset value. Further, parts of Darebin‘s community, and its local businesses, may be experiencing problems arising as a result of the financial crisis. A high preference will be given to treatment options that are compatible with Council‘s adaptive capacity. However, this adaptation strategy will also focus on strengthening Council‘s ability respond to the challenges it is facing through a range of treatment options.

5. Ensure that decisions are aligned with Local, State and Federal Governments’

requirements, but recognise there may be circumstances where this is not feasible.

It is important to ensure that all treatment options outlined in this adaptation plan are compatible with Federal, State and Local Governments‘ policies, regulations and laws. These may include the Commonwealth Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), policy direction stated in Victoria‘s ‗Our Environment Our Future- Responding to the Challenge of Climate Change‘ paper, and existing Council policies and initiative associated with climate change and peak oil.


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6. Maintain appropriate community and business participation Including awareness raising

and education.

Stakeholder support is crucial for successful implementation of any plan. Gaining community and business support can be achieved in a number of ways, most commonly through active participation, consultation and education.

7. Council’s responses must support building community and business resilience to climate

change and peak oil

It is the aim of this adaptation plan to ensure that all measures taken to address the risks associated with climate change and peak oil strengthen Darebin‘s resilience to these phenomena. Building true resilience must ensure that Council‘s constituents are not adversely affected by the implementation of the treatment options outlined in this adaptation paper.

8. Where possible, decisions should remain compatible with existing non-climate change and

peak oil risk management strategies

Measures selected to address climate change and peak oil risks should not undermine or conflict Council‘s existing risk management strategies. However, in cases where existing regulations or policies inhibit adjustment and adaptation to climate change and peak oil, the later will be prioritised.

9. Tasks are clearly stated and assigned to relevant sectors

All tasks identified in this adaptation plan will be assigned a priority rating and agency or sector responsible for implementation and monitoring. An emphasis will be placed on setting clear targets and benchmarks to assist with the monitoring process.


Setting measurable goals where appropriate will assist Council to monitor its progress, and will provide an incentive for collecting and recording baseline data associated with specific goals. For example, Council may decide to sign the Oil Depletion Protocol, which assigns Council with the responsibility to reduce its oil consumption by 2.6 percent per year (further information on the Oil Depletion Protocol is provided in Appendix 4). In order to measure its compliance with this goal, Council will need to keep a detailed record of its oil consumption, and review it by the end of the year to assess whether it is achieving its set goal.

6.3 Treatment Type

The Australian Greenhouse Office identifies a number of treatment options for climate change related risks. These treatment options are grouped under six key categories:

1. Spread risk

2. Technical and structural

3. Regulatory and institutional

4. Avoidance


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5. Research

6. Education and behavioural

These treatment options were used as a framework for the adaptation strategy for two key reasons: 1. They enable a comprehensive identifications of adaptation actions across a broad range of

activities; and, 2. They enable Council to undertake an holistic approach to addressing the challenges presented by

climate change and peak oil by avoiding focusing on a single response mechanism (for example: transfer risks or mitigate risk).

Treatment Type Description Spread risk Insurance and diversification strategies:

At times it may not technically or financially possible to undertake other treatment options. In this case, spreading the risk, such as using insurance mechanisms or transferring the risk through the supply chain may be required.

Technical and structural Actions associated with technical fixes and/or the creation and/or upgrading of facilities. For example one way to reduce the exposure of Council buildings to high energy prices is to implement energy efficiency plans and/or install solar PV systems.

Regulatory and institutional Prevent, mitigate or adapt to effects of climate change and peak oil through revised regulations and planning within Council. Council may also play the role of advocate to encourage regulatory change at other levels of government.

Avoidance Avoid or exploit changes in risk. For example, one way to reduce an expansion of exposure to a flood is to ensure that no new developments are approved in flood zones.

Research Research to improve understanding of relationship between climate change, peak oil and risk. Research can also be used to identify ways to address risks. Both climate change and peak oil issues are non-static – that is the science and responses are constantly evolving, therefore it is important that Council maintains strategic links with academic institutions.

Education and behaviour Educate and inform stakeholders and Council staff about the risks of climate change and peak oil, and ways to mitigate or adapt to these risks. The community is less likely to agree with a council plan if they do not understand the nature of the problem. Likewise, council staff may be reluctant to support measure to address these issues if they do not understand the topic, or are lacking the expertise required to implement some strategies.

Source: adapted from Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government (2006, p.49).


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7.0 Adaptation Actions - Local Government

7.1 Council Services

Darebin City Council provides a broad range of services to its constituents. As a result of climate change and peak oil, a number of Council services are likely to be affected. Some services, including: public & social services, health & safety and transport, are likely to experience a growth in demand; while other services, including: customer service, energy utilities, water, sewer and solid waste may experience disruptions as a result of climatic changes and rising fuel prices. Communities located at the fringe, the aged and disabled, and those of a low socio-economic status are most vulnerable during times of economic hardship and other emergencies (See Section 7- Community - for more information). Council‘s ability to meet the growth in demand for some services and mitigate the disruption to other services at a time of rising fuel prices and possible fuel shortages may be compromised, unless appropriate measures are taken in advance to address these issues. This section excludes Council emergency services, and waste collection and disposal services. As these services have a unique range of risks they are treated separately (see sections 6.2 and 6.3 below).

Identified risks:

1. Services competing for resources (how should Council respond to cost increases?)

2. Increased demand for all services- especially direct community service provision

3. Collapse of some services due to emergency conditions (e.g. transport, blackouts)

4. Community services (e.g. schools) may struggle to cope with increased densities and population

growth.

5. Staff shortages (unable to travel to work)

6. Increased demand for reliable transport system for community and Council‘s staff

Goal: Avoid disruption to essential service provisions.

Treatment Type


Spread risk Collaborate with insurers to remove or retrofit potential hazards (e.g. vulnerable trees). Use data obtained from hazard audit (see Avoidance action)

Corporate Services

2011-2013

Continue to discuss reciprocal arrangements

City Services

2011-2013


54

with neighbouring councils during emergencies to address possible disruption to essential services. Remain a party to MAV agreement to mutual aid.

Corporate Services


Technical and Structural

Review fleet and plant policies and practice in line with adopted fuel and greenhouse emission reduction targets. Identify transition to higher efficiencies and alternative fuels where possible.

City Services 2009-2010

Corporate Services


Regulatory and institutional

Prioritise essential services and create a contingency/business continuity plan to minimise disruption.

Corporate Services in conjunction with all Departments

2011-2013

Avoidance Identify infrastructure and assets at risk (e.g. roads in flood prone areas) and infrastructure that poses risk (e.g. street debris, vulnerable trees) and develop long term plan to increase resilience. Undertake hazard audit and reduce hazard incidence (or hazard expenditure) by 5% by 2011, 15% by 2013, and 30% by 2015. Investigate and action when reductions are not achieved.


2009-2010

Corporate Services

Review street tree and planting policies in relation to adaptation issues. Develop tree data base including identification and scheduled treatment of vulnerable trees (to adapt to low water conditions, heat island reduction and reduce


2009-2010


55

risk from storms and climatic conditions) including consideration of significant trees on private land. Scope opportunities for fruit and nut trees in public spaces to support urban food production.

Continue Energy Efficiency and Carbon Neutral Buildings programs to reduce energy requirements. Identify sites that could be considered to transition to energy self sufficiency. Continue to invest in renewable energy.


2009-2010


Ensure that no new Council structures and assets (especially emergency response centres) are located in high risk areas without appropriate design and contingency considerations.

Corporate Services

2011-2013



Research Contained within other actions

Education and Behavioural

Educate Council staff so they are well positioned to identify and respond to potential climate change and peak oil risks.


2009-2010

Corporate Services

7.2 Emergency Services

The latest science suggests that climate change will result in an increase in the frequency and magnitude of severe weather events. These events are often associated with a large scale destruction of infrastructure and streetscape, and may leave people isolated, injured and without access to basic facilities and services.


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Peak oil is likely to increase the costs associated with responding to climate change related events and may also exacerbate the number of people needing assistance following such events. For example, peak oil is likely to generate socio-economic changes, reducing the economic resilience and mobility capacity of some residents. The main responsibility for responding to emergency situations associated with bushfires, flooding and severe weather events lies with a range of emergency service agencies including the police with support from Victoria‘s State Emergency Service. However, Darebin City Council accepts responsibility for management of municipal resources and the coordination of community support to counter the effects of an emergency during both the response and recovery phases. This includes the management of: (a) The provision of emergency relief to controllants and affected persons during the response phase,

(b) The provision of resources to control and relieve agencies during response and recovery,

(c) Municipal assistance to agencies during the response to, and recovery from, emergencies,

(d) The assessment of the impact of the emergency, and

(e) Recovery activities within the municipality, in consultation with Department of Human Services. Accordingly, Darebin City Council has a Municipal Emergency Management Plan that aims to detail the agreed arrangements for the prevention of, the response to, and the recovery from emergencies that could occur in the City of Darebin as identified in Part 4 of the Emergency Management Act, 1986. The broad objectives of the Plan are to:

Implement measures to prevent or reduce the causes or effects of emergencies,

Manage arrangements for the utilisation and implementation of municipal resources in response to emergencies,

Manage support that may be provided to or from adjoining municipalities,

Assist the affected community to recover following an emergency, and

Complement other local, regional and state planning arrangements. The Emergency Management Plan does not currently mention climate change and peak oil, and requires review to provide better responses to these issues.


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Identified Risks:

1. Increased demand for emergency response (during and after floods, bushfires, storms)

Goal: To ensure that Council emergency arrangements are responsive to the threats of climate

change and peak oil.

Treatment Type


Spread risk Work collaboratively to support Victoria State Emergency Service and other emergency services (including healthcare, police, fire) to incorporate climate change and peak oil hazards into Emergency Management Plans. Identify areas where climate change and peak oil specific considerations may be required. (Use data obtained from research action below to identify best practice risk reduction measures).

Corporate Services

2009-2010



Review emergency response centre sites to improve resilience to climate change and oil dependency threats

Corporate Services

2009-2010


Review and upgrade emergency response systems.

Corporate Services

2011-2013

Review provisions for energy independent buildings to maximise council‘s ability to support emergency services and community during extreme events, and to minimise disruption to council services.


2011-2013

Corporate Services



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Regulatory and Institutional

Develop a contingency plan for sudden and severe fuel shortages (plan should consider things like: securing fuel for essential and emergency services; identifying ‗at risk‘ communities; reviewed locations for emergency centres; reciprocal arrangements with neighbouring councils during emergency; comprehensive fuel plan; etc).

Corporate Services

2011-2013

City Services

Avoidance Review Fire Management Plan and ensure that increased fire risk scenarios are considered and planned for.


2009-2010

Research Review and advocate for peak bodies (MAV) and State Government to review national and international emergency response case studies to identify best practice risk reduction measures.

Corporate Services

2009-2010

Education and behavioural

Advocate for preparation of an information sheet about peak oil and climate change emergencies. The information should include: clear triggers (e.g. what events trigger an emergency response), how to behave during emergency, council support services, etc. Prepare local information in the absence of development of information from other agencies.


2011-2013

Corporate Services

Work collaboratively and support key stakeholders: schools and education providers; aged care facilities and disability services; and other

Corporate Services

2009 - 2010


59

agencies; large shopping centres, etc to educate the community about preventing casualties during emergency.


7.3 Waste collection & disposal

Waste collection is an essential service that Council is expected to provide at all times regardless of external events which may affect it. Failure to do so will not only result in community and business dissatisfaction, but could also have health implications. Both climate change and peak oil are likely to impact upon waste collection and disposal. The occurrence of severe weather events and storms is expected to increase as climate change advances. These events are likely to generate increased amounts of green and domestic waste due to damage to housing, streetscape and infrastructure. Waste collection may also be disrupted if accessibility is compromised due to debris and flooding. The projected rise in fuel prices due to peak oil and the enforcement of the CPRS will increase the costs associated with waste disposal, processing and collection costs to Council. Increased oil prices could also mean a decrease in waste, as people cut discretionary spending. However, it is also important to consider that, under a carbon constrained economy, a transition to alternative technologies (i.e. petrol to electric cars) would mean a considerable degree of waste as existing technology becomes obsolete under these new conditions. A simultaneous occurrence of climate change and peak oil, and their potential impacts, requires Council to carefully consider how it is planning to respond in order to ensure that its waste collection services will not be disrupted. Darebin City Council is committed to reducing waste production across the municipality, and has a range of programs to help achieving this goal. Darebin envisions that by 2014, Council will have met municipal waste diversion targets set under the state-wide Towards Zero Waste (TZW) strategy through the

implementation of a range of actions outlined in Darebin‘s Waste Strategy 2007-201414

. Darebin is

committed not only to reducing waste produced by Council, but also to encouraging businesses and the community to minimise their waste production, and to promoting sustainable behaviour. To date, Council has achieved a 52% reduction in residential waste being sent to landfill (Darebin City Council 2008, p. 48). Darebin City Council is also an active member in Victoria‘s Eco-Buy Alliance, which encourages local governments and businesses to:

purchase environmentally friendly product to minimise waste,

promotes energy savings, and

supports sustainable manufacturing and distribution practices. Council also support its own Environmental Action Team, which promotes environmental initiatives for Council, including: limiting the size and number of rubbish bins to encourage recycling, buying green products where possible, and creating compost on-site.

14

The strategy is available to download from: http://www.darebin.vic.gov.au/Files/Waste_Strategy_2007-2014.pdf

http://www.darebin.vic.gov.au/Files/Waste_Strategy_2007-2014.pdf


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To address the projected rise in fuel prices, Darebin City Council have purchased two Euro side collection waste pick-up vehicles and one Euro 4 street sweeper. These items are environmentally superior and require less fuel for their operation than previous vehicles. The abovementioned measures are important and will reduce Council‘s waste collection and disposal bill under oil constrained economy; however they do not address the issue of increased waste due to severe weather events, nor do they spell any contingency arrangements for waste disposal and collection during and after these events.

Identified Risks:

1. Disruption to rubbish collection and increased cost of waste collection and disposal. 2. Increased landfill levies from receivers of our rubbish.

Goal: Ensure that Council meets its waste collection and disposal obligations at all times

regardless of external factors such as severe weather events and/or high oil prices.

Treatment Type


Spread risk Develop waste collection emergency plan. The plan may include: Commence discussion with collectors about contingency pick up days and reciprocal agreements with neighbouring councils and/or contractors.

City Services

2011-2013


Identify local and regional sites for emergency disposal. This may include reciprocal agreements with neighbouring councils.

City Services

2011-2013

Ensure procurement process for waste collection and receival contracts consider adaptation issues including energy efficiency and optimisation of kilometres travelled, alternative fuels, proximity and ability of facilities to withstand extreme weather conditions.

City Services

2011-2013



Transition waste services vehicles to fuel efficient/alternative energy sources in line with fleet review.

City Services

2009-2010

Investigate the potential to have self contained refuelling facilities at waste sites (e.g. biodiesel from green waste).

City Services

2011-2013


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Examine options for on-site recycling.

City Services

2011-2013

Examine changed collection routines to minimise fuel usage (eg: fortnightly waste collections)

City Services

2013-2015

Investigate and implement engineering solutions to increase capacity of existing waste disposal facilities to withstand extreme weather conditions.

City Services

2013-2015


Continue to implement and review waste management strategy including: minimisation target and incentives to reduce waste (e.g. technology, service charges)


2009-2010

Ensure Metropolitan Waste Management Group consider and include adaptation issues in future planning and procurement Processes.


2011-2013

Avoidance Monitor reduction of waste as per actions above


ongoing

Research Encourage Metropolitan Waste Management Group to investigate opportunities for energy including biofuel generation from waste site.


2009-2010

Education and Behavioural

Provide information to public and businesses on waste minimisation. Review communication tools to maximise community knowledge.


2009-2010

Develop further waste minimisation incentives for business and community to reduce waste.


2011-2013

7.4 Infrastructure

Building new and maintaining existing infrastructure under climate change and peak oil conditions will be a challenging task for Council. The fourth report by the IPCC notes that:

Increased damage [from climate change related events] is likely for buildings (e.g., concrete joints, steel, asphalt, protective cladding, sealants), transport structures (e.g., roads, railways, ports, airports, bridges, tunnels), energy services [wind power stations, electricity transmission and distribution networks, oil and gas product storage and transport facilities],


62

telecommunications (e.g., cables, towers, manholes), and water services.... In Victoria, water infrastructure is at significant risk for the B1 scenario by 2030, while power, telecommunications, transport and buildings are all at significant risk for the A1FI emission scenario by 2030 (Hennessey et al. 2007; pp. 521-522).

There is increasing evidence that some infrastructure does not function adequately under high temperatures and severe weather events. During the prolonged heatwave conditions that occurred in Melbourne during January 2009, many disruptions to the transport and energy generation systems were recorded. Disruptions to the City‘s rail network occurred due to the inability of the existing rail system to cope with temperatures above 35°C, whereas power outages occurred as the demand for electricity soared, and some transmitters collapsed under the mounting pressure. Should this scenario re-occur under peak oil conditions, the economic, social, and health implications are likely to be more significant. Peak oil is likely to result in considerably higher demand for public transport, and in the absence of adaptive measures or capacity growth, disruption to this system would likely result in economic stress with the community unable to travel to their desired destinations. Similarly, as waiting times for public transport increase, heat related health impacts are likely to rise. Sustained heat, bushfires, flooding and storm damage are all projected to increase in severity and frequency for Victoria- and will all intensify the abovementioned impacts. They may also generate new problems for existing infrastructure, including roads, footpath, bridges, telecommunication systems, power generation, and water infrastructure (see Table2 for more details) and for community facilities, such as parks and recreational grounds. If the abovementioned impacts occur at a time where oil prices are rising, Council‘s capacity to respond to them may be limited or diminished as the cost of transport, materials and plant operation increases. Furthermore, Council‘s ability to maintain its regular development and maintenance schedule may be affected as certain projects take precedence (for example, responding to infrastructure damage after a severe storm). A significant proportion of Darebin‘s budget (approximately 31% in 2007-08) is allocated towards infrastructure building and maintenance. The City of Darebin owns, controls, manages or maintains an extensive range of physical assets. These include over 600km of roads, 2,000km of drains, 300 buildings, 450 hectares of parkland and over 45,000 street trees (Darebin City Council 2008, p. 11). The challenges associated with meeting the operational and maintenance needs of these infrastructure items at times of rising fuel prices have already been acknowledged by Council and are highlighted in its Annual Report for 2007-2008 (See Section Business, Economic and Jobs of this report). Nevertheless, infrastructure damage due to extreme climatic conditions, and the associated increase in demand for maintenance work have not been factored into Council‘s Strategic Resource Plan which was adopted in 2007.


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Table 2: Infrastructure Vulnerability to Climate Change

Source: Adapted from: Climate Change and Infrastructure: Planning Ahead (2006, p.4).

Identified Risks:

1. Melting roads and cracking footpaths

2. Buildings and pipes cracking

3. Drainage capacity compromised

4. Ground movement- buildings located on reactive soils may be damaged

5. Impacts on parks (drying grounds, water restrictions)

6. Damage to community and Council infrastructure during storms and flooding

7. Telecommunication disruptions

8. Increased costs of materials for infrastructure development and maintenance

9. Increased capacity and cost pressure on existing transport and infrastructure


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Goal: Ensure that all critical infrastructure is resilient to climate change and peak oil within the

next ten years.

Treatment Type


Spread risk Identify infrastructure responsibilities (e.g. State, Federal, and Local) and lobby State and Federal agencies to ensure that they are aware of adaptation issues and that their assets and infrastructure in Darebin meet the levels required under predicted conditions. Work collaboratively with these agencies to advocate that proposed strategies/policies do not constrain Council‘s adaptation responses to climate change and peak oil.


2009-2010

For external parties (e.g. Information Communication Technology providers), ensure that they are aware of climate change and peak oil risks and their ramifications for Council.


2011-2013

Review insurance policy for at risk infrastructure and assets and work with the insurer to ensure that coverage (including emergency clean up costs) is adequate.

Corporate Services

2011-2013

Continue to explore and discuss shared service arrangements with neighbouring councils and organisations/schools to minimise energy and/or water use (e.g.: sportsgrounds.)


2011-2013


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Investigate and prioritise critical Council and community infrastructure to ensure its resilience during extreme weather events and energy disruptions.


2009-2010


Audit/measure heat island effect in critical areas (e.g. community infrastructure, public transport nodes) and commence preparation of a strategy to ensure that temperature in these areas are mitigated (using shade, light colored paving etc.).


2009-2010

Continue to identify and implement energy, fuel and water efficiency improvements in Council‘s building portfolio and operations to reduce Council‘s exposure to anticipated increase in energy and fuel costs and water depletion.


2009-2010


Continue to increase stormwater capture and harvesting and increase porous surfaces to reduce flooding.


2011-2013


Continue to expand low water turf replacement in sports fields, consider artificial turf where appropriate. Review actions in Open Space Strategy.


2013-2015

City Services


66


Adopt the Oil Depletion Protocol by 2010, which calls for an annual 2.6% reduction in oil consumption within Council operations15.


2009-2010

Lobby State Government to review current building and infrastructure standards to meet potential climate change impacts.


2009-2010

City Development

Ensure that strategic infrastructure development and maintenance plans include an assessment of climate change and peak oil.


2009-2010

Continue to develop incentive based policies and programs for community and business to adopt climate change and peak oil resilience measures (e.g. facilitate insulation; bulk roll outs of energy efficient technologies voluntary oil vulnerability audits for businesses).


2009-2010


Continue to review asset management and maintenance practices and prioritise at risk infrastructure (where appropriate use alternative materials to reduce fossil fuels dependence).


2009-2010

Include adaptation issues in Leisure Strategy review to determine future adaptation requirements (more indoor facilities, changed insurance, risk procedures,


2009-2010

15

More information about the Oil Depletion Protocol can be found in Appendix 4


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diversity of sports to reduce reliance on irrigated ovals).

Avoidance Continue to implement the Darebin Transport Strategy to reduce car use and support petroleum-free transport modes through: restructuring of local street environments, working with State Government Agencies and other stakeholders to prioritise sustainable transport modes across the transport network and implement behaviour change programs. Aim to ―double the share of walking, cycling and public transport trips for all trips and trips to work by 2027.‖


2009-2010

Research Identify high users of fossil fuels (across council) and investigate alternative materials to reduce the reliance on fossil fuel based supplies.

All Departments 2009-2010


Integrate climate change and peak oil into education and training for key professions, including engineering, architecture,

and planners16.

City Development

2011-2013


7.5 Planning

Both climate change and peak oil have the potential to effect current planning strategies and controls for Local Governments. The consequences of climate change, including flooding and sea level rise, could mean that development in flood prone or shore areas may be more constrained or not allowed. Similarly, the consequences of peak oil, such as increased demand for public transport and the desire for higher density development, will require Council to assess future development plans. Existing State Planning Policy Frameworks and local policy directions at the City of Darebin are asserting a progressive path forward which aims to promote development where people have a variety of transport options and service opportunities. In addition, existing policies are actively encouraging best practise energy efficiency outcomes. While it has been suggested in some research (Myors et al. 2005; Rickwood et al. 2008) that the expected benefits (e.g. decreased GHG emissions) derived from higher densities located near transport nodes is tenuous or non-existent, the City of Darebin has endorsed a number of

16

(COAG recommendations 2007).


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planning tools as a safeguard against such outcomes. These tools include: the Environmentally Sustainable Design (ESD) assessment tools, Sustainable Tool for Environmental Performance Strategy (STEPS), and Sustainable Design Scorecard (SDS). The Council is also using these tools as its preferred means of assessing ESD in built form for planning permit applications and within Structure Plans. However, Council has no statutory authority to require ESD outcomes beyond the requirements of the 5 star regulations in the Building Code of Australia (BCA). Consequently these tools remain voluntary and in 2007 were accessed by only 15% of developments. Council employ a part time ESD officer who supports these processes and provides ESD advice to Council and developers. Darebin has also been actively engaged in the establishment and activities of the MAV ESD advocacy group and the Victorian Local Sustainability Accord funded Sustainability in the Planning Process project. The advocacy group has been working with other local councils, the MAV, the State Government and the development industry to progress the State-wide introduction of a comprehensive ESD assessment framework. Darebin Council are also pursuing ESD outcomes through high level objectives in Structure Plans.

Identified Risks:

1. Increased pressure on planning: higher volume of development applications

2. Increased demand for development

3. Increased rents in areas with good services and pressure on public housing

4. Zoning changes

5. Increased demand for localised services in existing and new development areas

6. Increased demand for higher densities around public transport nodes

7. Pressure on land for community gardens and alternative energy generation

Goal: To ensure Council is working towards facilitating local resilience to climate change and peak

oil (both Council and community resilience).

Treatment Type


Spread risk Work with State Government

and developers/land owners to identify low risk Brownfield sites for development.

City Development 2011-2013

Work collaboratively with Housing Associations and other relevant NGOs to lobby the State and Commonwealth governments to increase support for public and affordable housing options in well serviced areas.


2011-2013


69


Investigate and facilitate what transport structural improvements are needed to ensure that transport facilities are appealing for community ridership (e.g. shelters with seats at all bus/tram stops, availability of maps and timetables at stops). Work with State Government Agencies to improve the coverage and service levels of public transport across the municipality


2009-2010

Promote and encourage Sustainable Tool for Environmental Performance Strategy (STEPS) for all new multi-unit developments including partial embodied greenhouse gas emissions accounting.


Promote and encourage Information Communication Technology (ICT) to reduce private trips (e.g. Tele-working).


2011-2013


Review strategic planning goals and modify when necessary to ensure their compatibility with carbon constrained future.

City Development

2009-2010

Continue to participate in Local Government ESD advocacy group to advocate for improved environmental legislation and support for better sustainability outcomes in built form (e.g. encourage the greatest energy and water efficiency, including stormwater harvesting in new and existing developments).

City Development

2009-2010


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Consider flexibility for localised economy, including localised food production, when reviewing planning zones, structure plans and strategic planning reviews.


Balance planning scheme requirements to ensure that existing planning regulations do not become a transaction cost/hurdle for implementing resilience based strategies (e.g. heritage objectives may reduce water tank/solar panel).


Investigate ways to increase planning support for low carbon businesses and those that provide energy efficient solutions (e.g. assistance with application processing).


Identify potential sites to establish community gardens in each neighbourhood, and possible sites for generating alternative energy.


Advocate for affordable and/ or public housing as a proportion of all large development.


2011-2013

Avoidance Ensure appropriate development in risk prone areas (e.g. flood zone, poor public transport access), to guarantee that adequate risk management approach is implemented prior to development approval

City Development

2009-2010


Review national and international case studies on regular basis to identify effective planning mechanisms that reduce vulnerability to climate change and peak oil.


Identify areas vulnerable to increased energy pricing (e.g. using advanced VAMPIRE (Vulnerability Assessment for


2009-2010


71

Mortgage, Petrol and Inflation Risks and Expenditure modelling)17.

Research Advocate for research undertaken by State and Federal Government around: sustainable precincts, sustainable buildings and sustainable renovations

City Development

2009-2010




Establish Tele-working protocols.

Corporate Services

2009-2010

Continue to provide and promote advice around sustainable and resilient buildings through planning and building processes

City Development

2009-2010


7.6 Organisational Knowledge and Capacity

Organisational knowledge about climate change and peak oil is crucial for the successful implementation of adaptation strategies. The uncertainty surrounding so many aspects of these topics could result in scepticism amongst staff and consequently lack of willingness to respond to the challenges they present. Understanding not just why Council chose to respond to climate change and peak oil, but also what the local risks associated with these phenomena are; how serious these risks are; how internal and external factors may influence impacts and adaptation; and, how the organisation can respond to these risks, is fundamental. In December 2008, Darebin City Council, conducted an internal survey to assess how Council‘s staff perceive the challenges associated with climate change and peak oil; identify gaps in knowledge; and, evaluate Council‘s adaptive capacity in relation to the challenges these issues present to the organisation. The survey‘s findings reveal some difference in the level of knowledge between climate change and peak oil, with 67% of participants rating their climate change knowledge as good compared with 47% for peak oil. Further investigation, however, reveals that there are myriad of issues relating to both topics for which participants requested to further their knowledge. These issues are summarised in Appendix 5.

Identified risks:

1. Limited organisational knowledge on particular issues (e.g. Emission Trading Scheme).

Goal: Ensure that Council staff are well informed and are up to date with relevant climate change

and peak oil scientific and regulatory developments.

17 See: Dodson, J. and Sipe, N. (2008) 'Shocking the suburbs: Urban location, home ownership and oil vulnerability in the Australian city', Housing Studies, 23(3): 377-401, and Dodson, J. and Sipe, N. (2008) 'Planned household risk: Mortgage and oil vulnerability in Australian cities', Australian Planner, 45(1): 38-47.


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Treatment Type


Spread risk Review Council insurance

policies (including professional indemnity) requirements for climate change and peak oil risks to minimise potential litigation.

Corporate Services

2009-2010


Review and modify (where needed) sectoral communication to maximise cross fertilisation of ideas and strategies.

All departments 2011-2013

Regulatory and Institutional

Identify a data collection and dissemination method to ensure that relevant officers are informed of the latest data available on climate change and peak oil. Data collection should follow established themes of interest: for example: impacts, latest projections, adaptation options, etc.). Special attention is needed to ensure quality of data and accessibility for relevant stakeholders.


2009-2010

Corporate Services

Establish a system for managing and storing the data collected, possibly a ‗one stop shop‘ website where decision-makers and their advisers can access the information.


2009-2010

Corporate Services

Provide a yearly annual report to decision makers which summarises key impacts and options

Adaptation Steering Committee

2009-2010


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Ensure there is institutional support (e.g. guiding policies) for internal adaptive measures (e.g. Telework protocols)18.

Corporate Services

2011-2013

Avoidance Promote resilience among council workers, for example: continue to encourage council workers to use sustainable transport modes and consider proximity to work.

Corporate Services

2009-2010

Research Work with Local Government Associations, State and Federal Governments and other institutions to identify best practice tools for organisational support.

All departments 2009-2010


Develop and implement a comprehensive communications strategy to raise awareness of climate change and peak oil impacts and the advantages of early attention to adaptation, including partnerships with key national professional and interest groups to develop best practice networks19.


2011-2013

Corporate Services

Integrate climate change and peak oil into education and training for key professions, including engineering, architecture, landscape architects and planners20.

City Development

2011-2013


18

Research suggests that without a Telework protocol staff who undertake Telework often miss out on promotions and bonding with fellow workers. 19

(COAG recommendations 2007). 20

(COAG recommendations 2007).


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8.0 Adaptation Actions - Community

The potential social impacts of climate change and peak oil have been documented by both academics and government organisations (Denniss 2005; Hatfield- Dodds & Denniss 2008; IPCC 2007). Social impacts associated with climate change may be linked directly to physical changes associated with rising temperatures, severe weather events and sea-level rising; and indirectly through economic, behavioural and regulatory changes. For example, Richard Denniss (2005) from the Australian Institute predicts that higher temperatures and increased intensity of storms in Australia will lead to:

more expensive insurance; increased energy demand and electricity costs, especially air conditioners; greater health costs; and, increased public spending on infrastructure.

Similarly, the fourth IPCC report on climate change acknowledges that economic and physical changes (i.e. increased storms, drought, and rising temperatures) will impact human systems in a number of ways:

Climate can effect air and water pollution and decrease environmental quality and human health.

Extreme weather events can damage linkage systems, such as transportation and transmission systems for industry and settlements (e.g., water, food supply, energy, information systems and waste disposal.

Climatic changes contribute to deterioration of physical infrastructure including community infrastructure.

Severe storms damage homes and other shelters and disrupt social networks and means to sustain livelihoods (Wilbanks et al. 2007, pp. 361-363).

A discussion paper released in May 2009 prepared by the McCaughey Centre, VicHealth Centre for the Promotion of Mental Health and Community Wellbeing, University of Melbourne as part of the Liveable and Just project21 noted the following social issues arising from climate change impacts:

Climate change impacts include: a greater incidence and burden of disease and greater risk to both physical and mental health, threatened access to essential goods and services such as food and water, exacerbation of existing social inequity and trends of disadvantage and decreased community connectedness, including through changing access to public open spaces and community facilities such as sporting grounds. Not all social impacts of climate change will necessarily be negative. For example, whilst climate change policy has the potential to cause job losses, particularly in fossil-fuel intensive industries, there is also emerging evidence to suggest it will mean significant job creation in other industries, notably renewable energy (McCaughey Centre 2009, p.3).

The paper notes the following around vulnerable groups:

21 LIVEABLE AND JUST: Improving the capacity of local government to respond to climate change in ways which

are healthy, just and sustainable: Discussion Paper – Executive Summary May 2009 - The Liveable and Just project is an initiative of the Victorian Local Governance Association, in partnership with the Brotherhood of St Laurence and the Department of Sustainability and Environment. It is funded through the Victorian Government‘s Sustainability Fund under the Victorian Local Sustainability Accord.


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Population groups that have been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts include people living on low-incomes, or in poverty, isolated older people, people with chronic health problems, mental health issues or disabilities, people with low levels of education, newly arrived migrants and refugees, and Indigenous communities (McCaughey Centre 2009, p.4).

For peak oil, the social impacts are expected to be severe due to society‘s dependence on oil based products. A series of research papers examining the socio-economic impacts of rising fuel prices, prepared by Jago Dodson and Neil Sipe from Griffith University, reveals that the impacts of rising fuel prices will be felt predominately by car dependent residents of outer suburbs that are poorly serviced by public transport (Dodson & Sipe 2008). Their analysis also suggests that ‗urban residents at the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum with the least financial capacity to absorb additional costs would likely be most affected (Dodson & Sipe 2005, p.7). The vulnerability of particular social groups to rising fuel prices has also been acknowledged in the CSIRO‘s report ‗Fuel for Thought‟ (2008), which highlights that: ‗[t]hose with low incomes will be most vulnerable to rising fuel costs as spending on fuel represents a greater proportion of their disposable income‘ (CSIRO 2008, p. 21). Peak oil is also likely to increase the costs of basic foods, including fruit and vegetables, meat and milk products. This is because current agricultural practices rely heavily on petroleum based herbicides and pesticides and the use of petroleum based fuels to operate its machinery. Vaccination for live stock is also oil based. In addition, it is anticipated that the costs associated with the transportation of these goods to the market place will increase as oil production begins to decline, resulting in higher prices for the end consumers. A simultaneous occurrence of climate change and peak oil will only exacerbate the impacts highlighted above. As communities attempt to cope with physical and regulatory changes associated with climate change (e.g.: higher energy costs, new building codes, higher insurance premiums); they are also facing higher fuel, food and other commodity costs at a time where Council‘s capacity to provide supportive community services may be reduced. The City of Darebin is recognised as one of Australia‘s most diverse communities- not only in terms of cultural and linguistic diversity - but also in socio-economic background, Aboriginality, employment status and occupation, housing needs and preferences and levels of ability. While this level of cultural diversity has a range of benefits, it also presents Darebin City Council with unique challenges. Rising fuel prices and the consequent rise in the cost of living can place a significant pressure on a range of groups which experience high level of socio-economic disadvantage (including the elderly and disabled), and could increase the pressure on Council to address social issues and service provisions.

Identified Risks:

1. Increased call outs for environmental health services

2. Increased energy costs mean that elderly may suffer more during extreme heatwaves

3. Possible ramifications from loss of community infrastructure due to weather and maintenance

issues22

4. Loss of community infrastructure due to severe weather events and rising maintenance costs.

5. Expectation on Council to reduce its energy consumption

6. Changing demographics

22

Community infrastructure here refers specifically to council assets which are used for community activities – e.g. Libraries.


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7. Increased pressure to support community initiatives (e.g. community gardens, community arts)

8. Increased crime due to economic pressures

9. Loss of some community services due to competition for resources with other essential services

10. Increased cost of living – changes in lifestyle

11. Growing need for neighbourhood support network

12. Increased health issues (e.g. asthma due to increased dust and pollution, skin cancer due to

excessive exposure to sun, and health issues related to poor nutrition/food price increases)

13. More social exclusion/ isolation as peoples‘ capacity to travel become compromised due to high

fuel prices

14. Increased mental health issues, including depression

15. Lack of community understanding and preparedness for climate change and peak oil adaptation

issues.

Goal: Ensure that Darebin’s community is resilient to the impacts of climate change and peak oil.

Treatment Type

Adaptation action Responsibility Recommended Implementation Commencement

Spread risk Establish partnerships with State Government and other community agencies to prepare for increase in demand for community based services (including aged care, health services, crime, etc.).


2011-2013


Ongoing review of building specifications for community infrastructure (council owned) to ensure their resilience to extreme weather events.


2009-2010

Identify and map ‗high risk areas‘ (aging population, low socio-economic), and plan for access and provision of temperature controlled community spaces/centres in these locations.


2011-2013

Continue to develop low-cost mobility strategies in line with the Transport Strategy and


2011-2013


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Community Transport to reduce household exposure to high transport costs.



Work collaboratively with State Government to develop heatwave plan and integrate it into Municipal Health and Emergency Management plans.


2009-2010


Undertake scenario based planning exercises for changing demographics and identify how Council might respond to new trends.


2009-2010

Corporate Services

Investigate specific energy and oil use reduction targets for the community to encourage and support resilience.


2009-2010

Facilitate development of local economic networks through the provision of technical, regulatory and knowledge based support.

City Development

2009-2010

Continue to encourage residential development in better serviced areas through structure and activity centre planning.

City Development

2009-2010

Develop Food Security Policy and action plan to address impacts on local food supply and access. Review Councils role in the development and maintenance of community gardens in Darebin


2009-2010

Continue to investigate ways to retrofit existing neighbourhoods to facilitate community interaction.


2013-2015


Continue to advocate for environmental refugee status and adequate support for


2009-2010


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people forced to relocate due to the impacts of climate change. This includes supporting the Climate Displacement Coalition.


Avoidance Identify critical community infrastructure and explore ways to ensure its viability under climate change and peak oil scenarios.


2011-2013


Research Undertake community survey to explore community needs under a peak oil scenario.


2009-2010


Engage with Darebin‘s Transition Town Movement and examine opportunities for collaborative work between Council and the community.


2009-2010


Advocate and lobby State and National Governments for large scale planning and communications regarding peak oil


2009-2010

Advocate for, develop and support educational and training programs to re-skill Darebin‘s diverse community for living under carbon constrained economy (for example food production, trades etc.). Work collaboratively with NGOs, universities, State agencies, Neighbourhood Houses etc. to design these programs and ensure cultural relevance.


2009-2010


Develop/advocate for a communications plan to raise community awareness around Peak Oil issues


2009-2010


Design a community guide for healthy living, and establish support network for communities at need.


2011-2013


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9.0 Adaptation Action- Business, Economics & Jobs

The economic consequences of climate change and peak oil are complex. To date, there are numerous publications and projections about the economic ramifications of these phenomena, some with conflicting views (Stern 2006; Garnaut 2008; Hirsch et al. 2005; McDonald et al. 2005). While the economic outcomes depend largely on the timing and the scale of the response, there is a growing consensus that the earlier governments and businesses respond, the lesser the costs and the greater the benefits. In 2007, the Australian Government tasked Professor Ross Garnaut to undertake a study on the national economic consequences of climate change. The final report, published in 2008, highlights sectoral impacts of climate change; analyses the economic costs and benefits associated with climate change mitigation; and identifies a set of medium and long-term policies and policy frameworks to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The report concludes that a ‗[g]rowth in emissions is expected to have a severe and costly impact on agriculture, infrastructure, biodiversity and ecosystems in Australia‘ (Garnaut 2008, p. xxxvii). It recommends an immediate action to mitigate and adapt to climate change by all levels of government, business and community. Finally, the report warns that a failure to respond to climate change by this generation, ‗would lead to consequences that would haunt humanity until the end of time‘ (Garnaut 2008, p. xlv).

Similarly, a number of studies which investigated the economic ramifications of peak oil have been published around the world, echoed the sentiment that early mitigation is required in order to avoid a significant economic and social crisis. The Hirsch Report is among the most notable of such studies. It examined the potential ramification of mitigating peak oil under three timelines:

not responding until the peak is felt;

responding 10 years in advance; and,

responding 20 years in advance.

The findings suggest that the third option is the most beneficial and responsible way to address peak oil. It concludes that:

Peaking will result in dramatically higher oil prices, which will cause protracted economic hardship in the United States and the world…The problem associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past ―energy crisis‖ experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention, if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis. (Hirsch et al. 2005, p.5).

A study by the Australian Bureau of Agriculture Resource Economics (ABARE), investigating the effects of sustained high oil prices on trade in the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) region, found that such trend is likely to have serious economic and social impacts including:

Reduced economic growth…leading to higher unemployment.

Increased wages and inflationary pressures…there could be upwards pressure on interest rates as central banks attempts to limit inflation…(but) overly concretionary policies could exacerbate the decline in economic growth and increase unemployment.


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Worsen trade balance- that is, the value of imports will increase more than the value of exports.

Place downward pressure on exchange rates in some importing economies as their balance of payments deteriorates (McDonald et al. 2005, pp. 49-50).

Although the abovementioned studies examine the economic ramifications of climate change and peak oil at the global or national scales, there is no doubt that the impacts will be felt at all levels of governments, business and community. The projected economic downturn combined with increasing commodity prices and rising unemployment figures will present significant challenges for Local Governments both directly and indirectly. Direct impacts relate to Councils‘ capacity to operate certain services as a result of changes to their financial structures; whereas indirect impacts relate to Councils‘ ability and level of preparedness to support its constituents at times of increasing economic and social hardship.

For Darebin, the economic impacts of climate change and peak oil should be evaluated carefully against the Municipality‘s and Council‘s economic structures. At June 2001, there were 13,275 business entities registered for GST purposes in the City of Darebin. The main industries contained in the City of Darebin are ―Property and Business Services‖, ―Construction‖, ―Retail Trade‖, ―Manufacturing‖ and ―Transport and Storage‖. According to the business register, Darebin has a higher than average proportion of ―Transport and Storage‖, ―Construction‖ and ―Manufacturing‖ business entities than the rest of metropolitan Melbourne, whereas ―Agriculture‖, ―Finance and Insurance Services‖, and ―Property and Business Services‖ are under-represented (City of Darebin 2001). This business structure could present some challenges when the impacts of climate change and peak oil begin to surface and filter through the local economy. For example, as the dominant businesses operating in Darebin (i.e. construction, manufacturing and transport and storage) are highly dependent on oil based products, a rise in the cost of this resource is likely to generate a range of negative impacts, including loss of revenue and jobs.

A more direct economic impact for Council relates to the projected increase in operational and maintenance costs due to high oil and other resource prices, at a time when revenue from rates is declining. In 2007-08 alone, Darebin City Council spent $33.6 million, or the equivalent of 31% of its budget, on a range of materials and services used in the delivery of services and infrastructure works (Darebin City Council 2008, p.64). Of this figure, $12 million were spent on a number of projects associated with roads, drains, major buildings and facilities (Darebin City Council 2008, p.44). Council‘s 2007-08 Annual Report acknowledges that: ‗It will be a constant challenge to keep costs of road projects within their original forecast given that the recent rise in the price of oil and asphalt products form a high proportion of the overall budget‘ (Darebin City Council 2008, p. 44). Accordingly, Darebin City Council incorporated assumptions regarding financial and economic drivers (including rising fuel and utility costs) into its Strategic Resource Plan for the four year period from 2008/2009 to 2011/2012. The aims of this exercise were: to ensure that Council can continue to maintain service levels; delivers a capital works program that meets the asset renewal needs of the City; and achieves a balanced budget on a cash basis (Darebin City Council 2008, p. 64). Further analysis may be necessary and should include factors such as, increased demand for services and infrastructure maintenance due to severe weather events.

Resource constraints may offer some ‗win-win‘ synergies that can assist both Council and the Darebin community to respond to climate risks and peak oil. For example, reductions in traffic volumes on local streets through an active program to shift household travel behaviour away from private motor vehicles would reduce the rate of degradation of street surfaces. It would also reduce maintenance cost burdens in a phase of increasing materials expenses, whilst also improving local household resilience to transport fuel cost increases by limiting dependence on private motorised modes.


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Identified Risks:

1. Retail businesses closing down during severe weather events

2. Increased fuel prices due to peak oil and Emission Trading Scheme coming into effect.

3. Insurance premium increase

4. Increased costs overall due to climate change and peak oil.

5. Loss of employment and loss of local jobs

6. Increased plant and fleet costs.

Goal: Minimise the economic impacts from climate change and peak oil on Darebin’s community,

businesses and Council.

Treatment Type


Spread risk Identify strategies and incentives to attract business, particularly sustainable businesses (e.g. PV providers) to Darebin.


Work with trader/business groups and/or insurers to identify the degree of underinsurance and un- insurance in the business community. (While this may not be considered Council role, it would be very useful for Council to know how vulnerable its community and businesses are).

City Development

2011-2013


Nil


Continue to advocate for Government policy and investment in mechanisms to reduce community and business energy consumption.


2009-2010

Continue to identify and provide incentives for reduced



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energy consumption in business and industry (e.g. Darebin Climate Wise Business Program). Ensure that energy efficiency programs are well marketed.


Advocate for Government policy and investment to facilitate high efficiency/alternate fuel/ vehicles.


2009-2010

Advocate for insurers and businesses to examine insurance thresholds and assessments in line with climate change and peak oil risks.


Advocate for efficient freight infrastructure


2011-2013

Avoidance Advocate and support transition into alternative energy.


2009-2010

Research Conduct a comprehensive analysis of future budget requirements, taking into consideration: possible changes in revenue from rates, increased demand for services, and increased costs of infrastructure maintenance.

Corporate Services

2009-2010


Facilitate awareness rising on the benefits of meeting insurers thresholds.



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10.0 Adaptation Actions- Environment

Changes in climatic conditions are likely to have serious impacts on the natural environment. The scale of impact depends on the severity of the changes, the location, and the specific characteristics of that environment. According to the fourth IPCC report, the projected impacts on the natural ecosystems in Australia are likely to occur due to Australia‘s high level of species endemism, competition with invasive species, and habitat fragmentation (IPCC 2007, p. 517). In addition, increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation will add significant pressure on Australia‘s dwindling water supply and is likely to adversely affect water quality and natural ecosystems. Environmental impacts associated with the occurrence of peak oil are less direct, and are mainly associated with how society will respond to the challenges peak oil presents. For example, the depletion of oil is likely to lead to the development of alternative fuels, and possibly the extraction of oil from environmentally sensitive areas, such as the Arctic. It may also lead to more extensive use of polluting alternatives such as tar sands, or a large scale production of biofuels. Depending on the scale of demand, biofuel production could result in large scale clearance of native vegetation, leading to an ecologically damaging chain reaction which includes loss of habitat and species. At a more local level, the environmental implications are more likely to relate to climate change rather than peak oil, and be focused on the degradation of natural habitats due to lack of water and severe weather events (storms and fire). However, peak oil could also bring about new local environmental challenges, as people explore alternatives to reduce their oil dependence23. Darebin City Council has more than 900 hectares of parklands. These include a diverse range of open spaces, ranging from small local parks up to major regional parklands such as the All Nations Park in Northcote and Bundoora Park in Bundoora. Added to this are environmentally sensitive areas such as the Central Creek Grasslands, the wildlife reserve at La Trobe University and the Leamington Street Wetlands (Darebin City Council 2008, p. 11). These areas may be vulnerable to the afore-mentioned impacts of climate change and peak oil, in particularly areas which are located in close proximity to residential development or those which exhibit high levels of species diversity or reliance on environmental flows.

Identified Risks:

1. Impact on waterways - both low flows and pollution after a storm

2. Loss of biodiversity

3. Reduction in drinking water

4. Decreased quality of potable water

23

For example, home based production of alternative fuels could increase pollution and destroy natural ecosystems if not monitored appropriately.


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Goal: Ensure waterways are protected effectively, and maximise community’s resilience to

reduced potable water quality availability.

Treatment Type


Spread risk Work collaboratively with State Government, Melbourne Water, Yarra Valley Water and businesses to increase resilience around low water availability.


2009-2010

City Services


Continue to work with relevant State Government department, and NGOs to identify ways to maximise waterways protection.


2011-2013

City Services



Facilitate a transition to alternative water supplies for Council‘s maintenance work and potable water. (e.g. water tanks)

City Services

2011-2013



Establish low to mid level water restrictions as water use standards.


2011-2013

Advocate for continued incentives and regulatory mechanisms to reduce business usage of potable water.


2011-2013

Advocate for development criteria to ensure that adequate water saving measures are embedded.


2009-2010

City Development

Advocate for the implementation of appropriate guides, policies and approvals for people who have on-site fuel generation plants.


2013-2015

Complete the flood mapping of Council to identify flood prone areas and detail results in planning overlay.


2009-2010

Avoidance All of the above.


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Research Review international and national water savings best practice examples.


2011-2013

Conduct climate change impact assessment for Darebin‘s most vulnerable open space areas, including the wildlife reserve at La Trobe University and the Leamington Street Wetlands.


2011-2013

City Services



Advocate for, develop and support educational and training programs to re-skill the community for living with water constraints (work collaboratively with NGOs , universities, State agencies, etc.) to design these programs.


2011-2013


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11.0 Implementation and Key Performance Indicators

The implementation of this document‘s recommendations will require initial effort, recognition and support from all sectors of Council. The longer implementation is delayed, the greater potential for the materialisation of risks and lost opportunities. As there are a considerable number of identified risks the implementation of the action plan will need to follow a staged, triage approach. As such the implementation of the identified adaptation actions is not a static process and must follow an adaptive management approach. It should also be recognised that the implementation of the Adaptation Plan is limited to staff capacity and budget. It is envisaged that by 2013 Council will have implemented and mainstreamed the Peak Oil and Climate Change Adaptation Plan. While some elements of the Plan will take longer to reach fruition it is important that the framework is established as soon as possible.

This chapter identifies the recommended implementation process which is separated into three main themes:

1. Immediate – These actions include responses to extreme threats and those which are crucial to

the Adaptation Plan framework. The Climate Change Management team at Council may need to

further prioritise these actions. These actions should be undertaken in alignment with the next

budget (e.g. implementation commencement 2009 -2010).

2. Medium term – These actions include responses which are less urgent but should be implemented

as soon as possible to establish potential economies of scale (e.g. implementation commencement

2011 – 2013).

3. Long term – These actions include responses which are built upon previous steps, or require

information from previous investigations to be implemented (e.g. implementation commencement

2013-2015).

As has been detailed in the bulk of this report there are large risks for Council in not developing a comprehensive adaptive response to climate and petroleum risk. Unless the strategy is incorporated into mainstream council planning processes it is unlikely to be successful. A robust implementation plan which works across all Council Departments is required. Robust benchmarks to accurately measure progress on climate and peak oil resilience action are also necessary. The following implementation actions are therefore recommended.

1) Develop an internal steering committee which meets quarterly to prioritise actions and review

progress. Ensure that they have sound funding and longevity until the implementation plan is

mainstreamed. This responds to the first threat of failure – a lack of Council recognition, and

inadequate or no incorporation of the Plan within Council practices

2) Review the suggested targets and timelines and populate an audit result sheet (see Appendix 6 for

an example). Undertaking this task allows for yearly evaluations and review of measurable

outcomes. The audit sheet also allows for a review of operational expenditure saved (or spent)

over time.


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Appendix 1: Local Government Action on Peak Oil (World Summary)

To view the actions taken by local governments across the globe to address peak oil please refer to the Post Carbon Cities Website: http://postcarboncities.net/actions/table?sort=desc&order=Population


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Appendix 2: Barriers to implementation of climate change policies

Source: Municipal Association of Victoria http://www.mav.asn.au/CA256C320013CB4B/Lookup/Victorian_Local_Government_Climate_Change_Needs_Survey_Report/$file/MAV%20Climate%20Change%20Needs%20Survey%20Report_Final_Nov%202007.pdf

http://www.mav.asn.au/CA256C320013CB4B/Lookup/Victorian_Local_Government_Climate_Change_Needs_Survey_Report/$file/MAV%20Climate%20Change%20Needs%20Survey%20Report_Final_Nov%202007.pdf




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Appendix 3: Summary of risks identified in Darebin City Council workshop

Consequence

Catastrophic 5

Major 4

Moderate 3

Minor 2

Insignificant 1

Likelihood

Almost Certain 5

Likely 4

Possible 3

Unlikely 2

Rare 1

Risk Ranking

Extreme 9-10

High 7-8

Medium 5-6

Low 2-4

Climate Change Related Hazards

Primary Hazards Likelihood Consequence Risk Ranking

Heat

Disruptions to rubbish collection services

3

4

7

Melting roads and cracking footpaths

4 4 8

Impact on parks and waterways. Loss of biodiversity

5 3 8

Home care (age services)- increased call out for environmental health services?

5 4 9

Increased energy consumption and blackouts

5 3 8

Sporting grounds unable to be used

4 4 8


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Buildings and pipes cracking

4 4 8

Computer systems crashing as a result of power surges

5 2 7

Increased call outs for food inspectors

3 2 5

Precipitation

Open space and community facilities may suffer- drying grounds, water restrictions

5 4 9

Ground movement- buildings located on reactive soils may be damaged.

5 4 9

Decreased food security due to less water

4 3 7

Trees dying 5 2 7

Loss of biodiversity

4 2 6

Reduction in drinking water

4 3 7

Decreased quality of potable water

4 3 7

Decreased quality of waterways

4 4 8

Health issue: for example: asthma due to increased dust and pollution.

4 3 7

Increased cost of water

3 3 6

Storms

Retail businesses closing down- economic cost.

3 2 5

Huge emergency response (flood, drainage, fallen trees)

5 4 depends on insurance

9

Damage to residential properties

5 4 9


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Damage to community infrastructure and other Council assets

5 4 9

IT close down as building damaged by floods

4 3 7

Increased pressure on Council to respond to influx of calls

3 2 5

Drainage capacity compromised

4 4 8

Pollution after a storm (waterways, debris, etc.)

3 4 7

High clean-up costs

3 3 6

People off work- economic loss

3 3 6

Increased risk of food contamination due to damaged buildings

3 4 7

Secondary Hazards

Limited organisational knowledge. For example: Emission Trading Scheme.

4 4 8

Increased landfill levies from receivers of our rubbish

5 4 9

Increased petrol prices three years after Emission Trading Scheme comes into effect.

5 3 8

Community pressure on Council to lead

5 2 7


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the change

Higher energy costs for community and Council.

5 4 9

Expectation from Council to decrease its overall energy consumption

4 1 5

Council has to navigate between cutting services and increasing the rates/ cost to the community.

4 4 8

Insurance: Council premiums increase. Increase in claims.

4 3 7

Changes to the planning scheme

5 3 8

Impact on local businesses – Council is expected to provide advice

4 3 7

Increased demands for subsidies, grants. Requests for money from Council to support the transition into low carbon economy

4 1 5

Expectation to do all elements of education for the community (residential and SMEs) around this

3 2 5

Service provision impacts for meals on wheels, home

4 4 8


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care staff, etc - those that use cars as a core part of service provision

An increase in insurance premium for community

4 3 7

Elements of community not insuring

4 3 7

Council communicating new complexities of insurance to the community

3 1 4

Council unable to get insurance

1 3 4

Community unable to get insurance

1

3 4

Tertiary Hazards

Population shift: increase population in Melbourne

4 2 6

Increased pressure on planning: higher volume of development applications, need for land, possible rezoning, etc.

5 3 8

Increased demand on all of our services - especially direct community service provision

5 4 9

Increase demand for garbage collection and recycling services

3 4 7


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Peak Oil Related Hazards

More social exclusion/ isolation

4 3 7

Pressure on Council to support localised food production

4 3 7

Demand for high density housing

4 3 7

Increased mental health issues, depression

3 4 7

Increased rents and pressure on public housing

4 4 8

Increased volume of environmental refugees

3 3 6

Increased demand for more recreation areas as the population of the area grows

4 3 7

Increased pressure on existing transport and infrastructure

4 4 8

Gentrifications and demographic shift – older people and low socio-economic moving north

4 2 6

Access to ports may be restricted during storm events- supplies may be held back.

3 3 6


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Social / Health

Reduced capacity to provide essential services – rubbish collected- carries a health risk.

Cost of oil based vaccination increases- availability of some vaccines (oil based) may be compromised.

Mobile work force will be affected. Some services (aged, disabled, meal-on wheels, etc.) will struggle.

Increased rates as Council transfer costs.

People may accept jobs that they will struggle to access in the future- loss of employment- and flow-on effects.

Social divide

Increased unemployment, depression, social consequences

Growth in local activities - in neighbourhoods.

Return to "old ways". Social structures emerging as more important.

Community arts - Peak oil a positive? People look locally for entertainment. Changes in personal pass-times. Gather in localised places to perform etc. Increased pressure on Council for funding for community spaces, but less money to put towards it?

Child Care - affordability? Movement to be closer to schools. Behaviour change: stay at home, reliance on family. Impact on work hours. Flow on impact to supply of labour. Possible return to extended family housing and local child care, schooling. Schools may struggle to cope with increased density.

Community Safety - Petrol stealing. Home based food production subject to crime.

IT - Impact on supply of IT infrastructure. Slow down ability to upgrade.

Larger 80+ populations with more complex and higher needs. Philosophy of "aging in place" might be impacted. Need to ensure that there is enough place based services that people can access nearby. Costs of changing from placed based aging may be too high. Food miles? Regional meals kitchen? Meals = essential service. Should there be a set of more stringent priorities for council services? Shift centralisation of services? Technological changes to food provision could lead to other impacts.

Local Government As council relies on deferential rates, there is a risk that if businesses are struggling, Council loses its revenue.

Growth in demand for local activities –may need to rezone some areas.

Increased demand for approvals for home based


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businesses.

Demand for localised services increases.

Cost of essential services increases and some services may need to be reduced or cut out. This may pose a health risk if rubbish collected is held up.

The supply of some materials for maintenance may be reduced and costs will increase (ex: fertilisers, asphalt, etc.)

Mobile work force will be affected. Some services (aged, disable, meal-on wheels, etc.) will struggle.

A question: who is going to absorb the increase in costs? The community? Local businesses?

Competition between services- having to decide what is essential, what isn‘t?

Council less able to maintain its assets, and will have to carefully consider upgrading projects.

Increase plant and fleet costs.

The further away materials travel from – the higher the costs.

Council staff travels to work- staff shortages, skill shortages.

Reluctance to invest in alternative infrastructure, and when cost of oil is too high- inability to do so.

Newly developed areas may not have localised services, and there is going to be increased pressure on Council to provide these services.

Changes to funding

Aging staff: possible OHS issues.

Increased use of technology based tools to do your work - eg Google maps provide some replacement of site visits. Decentralised work force rather than all based at Preston.

Increased pressure on Council to provide community transport. Organisation of ―walking‖ school busses. Community Transport is a required service for aged/disabled. Smaller fleet has implications for transportation of older or frail community. Council will face increasing pressure to plan and provide infrastructure that supports the use of bikes and small vehicles like scooters.

Positive position brought about due to limited contracted services. Local talent pool is high and becomes utilised.


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Economic, Business & Jobs

Public transport access to shopping areas is limited, and as fuel prices rise, consumers‘ accessibility may decrease and businesses will suffer.

People with restricted public transport access may struggle to get to and from work.

Increased rates as Council transfer costs.

Impact on council revenue - differential rates means we rely on income from businesses. If businesses suffer and close then significant impact on council revenue. Eg Northland. All our shopping centres are largely car reliant. Businesses closing have a snowballing effect. Impact on local jobs. People have to travel out of Darebin for their jobs. Change to shopping patterns? Revival of smaller local shopping strips? Change won‘t occur quickly enough to insure against impacts. Where does supply come from for smaller "grocery" type shops? Long supply chains. More income to be spent on food. Discretionary spending decreasing. Job loss in service industries. Businesses rely on traditional peaks - already vulnerable. Impact on access to consumables. Lifestyle changes.

Transport open up - small network of food delivery. Emerging network of food co-ops. Return to "old ways". Social structures emerging as more important.

Shops that sell fresh food decreasing in neighbourhood centres. Small grocery shops will not emerge due to costs of supply. Corner coffee shops will benefit as people are more likely to spend time in neighbourhood areas.

Less revenue from parking tickets. (Less people pay or drive).

Confluence- Local Government Climate Change Peak Oil Confluence

Increased amount of waste Waste management (temporary disruption to collections services.)

Waste clean-up costs increase

Service becomes more expensive.

Increased pressure on service after storm events

Service provisions less often

Encourage waste minimisation.

Need further consideration for landfill location. The further- the more expensive the service.

Changed planning zones (to prevent development in vulnerable areas)

Increased density around transport links/centres

Need to review strategic planning zones and future development plans.

Damage to roads, more maintenance required

Energy required to repair is limited.

Escalating costs

Supply issues- difficult to buy


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Cost of maintenance increases. Construction products more expensive and there is a possible decline in available materials.

asphalt

Strain on aging staff due to manual labour.

Community facilities and open space: park vegetation drying out, public pools, sport grounds

Increase maintenance costs. Pressure for land for community gardens reduces open space

Reduced quality of open space, concern about lack of water for community gardens, need to recycle water- but energy costs are higher.

Need to develop priority grounds for retention.

Potential for protection of natural bushland areas due to their resilient to extreme conditions and low maintenance needs.

Increased demand for services for aged and other vulnerable populations (heat stress, higher energy costs, access to services)

Increased transport costs for Council‘s service providers (e.g. meals on wheels)

Increased expectations for service delivery.

Higher costs for Council.

May be need to alter format for service delivery, and need to prioritise some services over others.

Increased need for environmental health inspection

Reduction in inspection/ staff capacity

Need to prioritise service delivery

Increased energy consumption. Increased likelihoods of blackouts.

Oil supply diminishes, prices increase

Energy production decreases, increase demand and reliance on alternative sources of energy.

May need to identify sites for alternative energy production in advance and develop these alternatives while the funds and resources are still available.

Damage to infrastructure Increased costs of maintaining and fixing damaged infrastructure due to higher costs of machinery, raw materials, etc.

Increased infrastructure delivery and maintenance costs for Council.

Increased demand on emergency response services.

Mobile workforce costs increase. Costs of plant, fleet, materials, and infrastructure increase.

Prioritise service provisions and identify most vulnerable pockets of populations and infrastructure. Need more advance warning system.

Staff training is required.


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Consider opportunity to provide emergency response from non-car transport mode.

Residential property damage

Infrastructure and service costs increased.

If un-insured, council may have a responsibility to provide assistance.

Increased energy demand More reliance on coal based energy

Harder to meet carbon reduction targets.

Disruptions to transport system due to sever whether events

Increased demand for reliable public transport system

Economic disruption if public transport services are down.

Reduced accessibility to services

Disruption to businesses. Increased expanses due to CPRS and other secondary impacts.

Council revenue is affected at a time when general expenditure costs are increasing

Loss of revenue, tighter budget, some services may be impacted.

Need to identify and prioritise essential services.

Confluence- Social and health Climate Change Peak Oil Confluence

Population movement into Darebin

Increase density, refugees from conflicts about oil

Increased demand on services (transport, social, economic) at a time when Council budget is already stressed.

Aged population is vulnerable to heat stress

Cost of energy increases, homecare services may be reduced due increase costs.

Aged will cut back on air-conditioning. More vulnerable to food poisoning. Increased fatality due to health issues Unable to access services due to higher costs and lack of localised facilities.

Damage to community infrastructure (including parks and other public spaces)

Increase costs associated with maintenance of community infrastructure, increased pressure for higher density and potential loss of open space

Diminishing open space. Possible health issues associated with lack of exercise, obesity, etc.

Decrease food security (damage to crops, less water, etc.)

Increased transport costs of foods to the market place. Possible disruption to food availability.

Reduced quality of life. Increased pressure on low-socio economic populations. Health implications due to low nutrition diets.


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Confluence- Business/ Economic/ Jobs Climate Change Peak Oil Confluence

Increase costs associated with new Climate Change Laws

Loss of revenue to decrease discretionary spending

Closing down of businesses, loss of jobs, and loss of council revenue.

Disruption to business during extreme weather events and loss of income as a result.

Increased costs of goods dur to higher transport and material costs.

Closing down of businesses, loss of jobs, and loss of council revenue.


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Appendix 4: The Oil Depletion Protocol

The oil depletion protocol was proposed and drafted by Colin J. Campbell in 2003, and is also known as ―the Rimini Protocol‖ or ―The Uppsala Protocol‖. The aim of the protocol was to stabilise oil prices and minimise the effects of peak oil by decreasing oil production and consumption (import) rates. The depletion protocol would require the signatory to reduce its import rates by the world depletion rate, which is currently estimated at approximately 2.6% per annum (Heinberg 2006, p.84). This implies that those who choose to adopt the protocol are committed to reduce their oil consumption by 2.6% a year through the application of a range of oil consumption reduction measures. These measures may include: shifting to alternative modes of transport or replacing current fleet with hybrid vehicles; using alternative materials to replace oil based products; reviewing land use policies to reduce the need for private transport; facilitate and encourage the uptake of alternative travel modes; and many more. The mechanisms that can be employed to meet the protocol‘s target are not specified in the protocol and will depend on the decisions made by the signatory. To ensure that the protocol is adopted and adhered to, it is important to establish a monitoring system. Council will need to discuss what processes should be taken to ensure that the 2.6% target is achievable, taking into consideration the need to (1) collate baseline data on oil consumption across Council operations; (2) identify which operations consume the greatest amount of oil; (3) examine options to reducing oil consumption across these operations and prioritise them; (4) implement oil reduction strategies; and (5) calculate the rate of reduction on an annual basis. More information on the Oil Depletion Protocol can be found in Richard Heinberg‘s book: The Oil Depletion Protocol: A plan to avert oil wars, terrorism and economic collapse (2006). New Society Publisher.


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Appendix 5: Findings from Council (Internal) Survey on Climate Change and

Peak Oil

Is there any information that you think would help you to understand how Climate Change will affect your department/branch/unit? Please list any suggestions below:

Response

Council's level of commitment to reducing Climate Change and mitigating risks (by increasing energy efficiency, use of renewable resources etc). The role that State and Federal governments are likely to take on reducing climate change and mitigating risks given that every Council will face similar issues. Issues that will be particularly relevant to Darebin Council. The roles of individual units.

We need to drive less and use less electricity.

No, I think I have a good handle on it.

What are people doing to make their businesses more sustainable. What are some of the short term and long term actions we should be taking. How do we get the resources financial to tackle some of the big issue items ie solar is great but the cost is prohibitive. How can we compare how we sit with energy use vs other sites.

More details on specific impacts - if these details exist - for example -modelled flood frequency and intensities, modelled temperature ranges, any research on infrastructure impacts (what do hot & dry environments do to the lifespan of a road - do we know anything from other hot climate countries?).

A discussion on this issue within the Unit Coordination Team facilitated by staff from the Environment and Amenity Department.

need to have a clear and understandable policy and implementation plan

My understanding is very basic therefore any chance to gather info and reflect would be valuable.

Details on what the potential impact of climate change will have on the building industry is likely to be from both supply of materials and costs.

how much oil is left and the likely timeframe of changes to pricing

More information

More accessible information on carbon and green house gas impacts from our works

scenarios of branches with high energy/fuel use e.g. Collection services are going to need to ... List most affected branches and why

How will carbon tax be introduced. What affect will it have on RLC Will we have enough water for pools etc

Greater information the amount of carbon emissions generated by various activities. Library managers have recently raised the issue of the level of emissions generated in the production and publisher to shelf processes of library materials.


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Response

I need clarity on what the question is asking: is it about how the unit will function and operate as an organisational unit; or is it about how the unit will think about land use policies and prepare/implement policies that are sensitive to Climate Change issues. We need information on both.

At this stage no. Most information is provided on a national or global basis and there has not been much of an effort that I am aware of to relate this to effects on individual workplace or individual people. Will be all be walking, riding bikes, working from home or employing people to peddle power our own generator?

Is there any information that you think would help you to understand how Peak Oil will affect your department/branch/unit? Please list any suggestions below:

Response

Will Council take a proactive approach to reducing the use of oil, planning to increase efficiency or is it more likely to be reactive to problems as they arise?

none

Distribute your paper on the impact of peak oil more widely across the organisation with a specific focus placed on the table listing how each work area links with and will be impacted by peak oil.

Scenarios for oil/fuel availability over time after peak oil hits and how these would translate into traffic volumes on the road network, new technologies or solutions being considered (would assist us to plan for these), details on the materials that rely on petrochemical products and alternative solutions, practices in other countries to prepare for this.

As above

what pricing will do to our budgets over the course of a year

As above.

Details on what the potential impact of climate change will have on the building industry is likely to be from both supply and manufacturing of materials, transportation and costs.

Are there projections on the impact of car usage by families to access services. What other by-products will be affected by Peak Oil.

More information

see question 2

Is there a definitive answer on whether we have reached this point yet?

Same questions as for climate change above.

I am not aware of any


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Appendix 6: Example of Audit Result Sheet (Excel)

Attached separately.


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Appendix 7: Hazard Types For this report a climate change hazard has been identified as ―an event, series of events or variation, or an action in response to these, which has the potential to result in a material economic, social or environmental loss‖ (Climate Risk 2008). For further clarification, climate change hazards can be presented in three distinct themes of impacts; primary, secondary and tertiary (See figure below).


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Climate Change and Peak Oil Adaptation Plan November 2009

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