Climate Change 2007: Mitigation_Summary for Policymakers, Bangla transletion

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Rjevqy cwieZ©b 2007: cÖkgbbxwZ wba©viK‡ì Rb¨ mvi ms‡ÿc

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NCC,B †m‡µUvwi‡qUcÖ`xcb, 6/1G, eøK-Gd, jvjgvwUqv, XvKv-1207

B-†gj: [email protected]‡qe mvBU: www.nccbd.org

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Network on Climate Change, Bangladesh(NCC,B)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Climate Change 2007: Mitigation

Rjevqy cwieZ©b 2007: cÖkgb

Summary for Policymakers

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Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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cÖKvkKvj: A‡±vei, 2007

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This Summary for Policymakers was formally approved at the 9th Session of Working Group III of the IPCC, Bangkok, Thailand. 30 April - 4 May 2007

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eZ©gvb we‡k¦ Rjevqy cwieZ©b me©vwaK Av‡jvwPZ GKwU cÖm½| we‡klÁ I weÁvbxiv Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi wewfbœ Z_¨-DcvË Ges Rjevqy cwieZ©b †gvKv‡ejvi m¤¢ve¨ cš’v mgyn wbiæc‡b wb‡qvwRZ i‡q‡Qb| Rjevqy cwieZ©b AvR ïay GKwU cwi‡ekMZ welq bq, eis Zv GKwU Ab¨Zg cÖavb Dbœqb Bmy¨| welqwU wek¦ K~UbxwZ‡ZI ¸iæZ¡c~Y© f~wgKv cvjb Ki‡Q| DbœZ †`k¸wji ivóªbvqKiv hLb ‰ewk¦K Dòvq‡bi Rb¨ `vqx wMÖbnvDm M¨vm¸wji wbM©gb Kgv‡Z weZ©‡K wjß n‡”Qb, wVK †m mgq Avgv‡ì g‡Zv Dbœqbkxj I AbybœZ †`k¸wji mvaviY RbM‡Yi mvg‡b Rjevqy cwieZ©b GKwU myKwVb ev¯ÍeZv wn‡m‡e mvg‡b G‡m‡Q| we‡k¦i Ab¨vb¨ ¯’v‡bi g‡Zv evsjv‡`‡ki RjevqyI cv‡ë hv‡”Q| Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi GB cÖwZwµqvq evsjv‡`‡k kxZFZzi ˆ`N©¨ K‡g hv‡”Q, wKš‘ kx‡Zi cÖ‡Kvc evo‡Q| MÖx®§ FZz‡Z ZvcgvÎv e„w× cv‡”Q, evo‡Q `ve`v‡ni cÖ‡Kvc| ZvcgvÎv e„w× cvIqvq el©vFZz‡Z e„wócv‡Zi cwigvY †e‡o hv‡”Q| d‡j Nb Nb eb¨vi cÖ‡Kvc †`Lv w`‡”Q| D‡ëv w`‡K kxZKv‡j e„wócvZ K‡g hvIqvq gvP©-GwcÖj gv‡m Livi we¯Ívi NUvi Avk¼v †`Lv w`‡”Q| GKB m‡½ mgy`ª c„‡ôi D”PZv e„w×i Kvi‡Y DcK~jeZx© A‡bK GjvKv †hgb mgy‡ ª wbgw¾Z n‡e, †Zgwb jeYv³Zv, N~wY©So I R‡jv”Q¡v‡mi cÖ‡Kvc AviI Zxeª n‡e e‡j weÁvbxiv Abygvb Ki‡Qb| me wgwj‡q êwk¦K Dòvq‡bi d‡j mgy`ªc„‡ói D”PZv e„w× Ges Rjevqyi cwieZ©b Avgv‡ì †`‡ki †KvwU †KvwU `wi ª gvby‡li Kómva¨ Rxe‡b eo ai‡bi ûgwK ˆZwi K‡i‡Q| A_P Avgv‡ì mvaviY gvbyl †_‡K ïiæ K‡i †`‡ki bxwZ wba©vi‡KivI Rjevhy cwieZ©b m¤ú‡K© Lye †ewk m‡PZb bb| †h Kvi‡Y fwel¨Z Dbœqb cwiKíbv cÖYq‡bi †¶‡Î Rjevqy cwieZ©b h_vh_ ¸iæZ¡ jv‡f e¨_© n‡”Q| GgbwK Dbœqb Kg©Kv‡Ð wb‡qvwRZ †emiKvwi †¯^”Qv‡mex ms¯’v¸wjI G wel‡q mgfv‡e m‡PZb e‡j cÖZxqgvb n‡”Q bv| Gi GKwU cÖavb KviY n‡”Q, Rjevqy cwieZ©b m¤úwK©Z wbf©i‡hvM¨ Z_¨ cÖvwß mnRjf¨ bv nIqv| we‡kl K‡i evsjv fvlvq G m¤úwK©Z wbf©i‡hvM¨ Z‡_ï h‡_ó NvUwZ i‡q‡Q| Ggb GKwU †cÖ¶vc‡U Ô†bUIqvK© Ab K¬vB‡gU †PÄ, evsjv‡`kÕ (Gbwmwm,we) Gi gva¨‡g cwiPvwjZ,ÔK¨v‡¤úBb Ab K¬vB‡gU †PÄ Bb evsjv‡`kÕ (wmwmwm,we) cÖK‡íi AvIZvq êwk¦K Dòvqb, Rjevqy cwieZ©b Ges mgy`ªc„‡ôi D”PZv e„w× msµvšÍ ‰eÁvwbK I wbf©i‡hvM¨ cÖwZ‡e`bmg~n h_vm¤¢e mnR evsjvq Abyev` K‡i RvZxq I ’vbxq ch©v‡q wewfbœ †emiKvwi †¯^”Qv‡mex ms¯’v, mswkøó e¨w³ I cÖwZôv‡bi Kv‡Q †cÖi‡Yi D‡`¨vM †bIqv n‡q‡Q| BZtc~‡e© Rjevqy cwieZ©b welqK AvšÍtivóªxq c¨v‡bj (AvBwcwmwm)Õi 4_© mgx¶v wi‡cv©‡Ui IqvwK©s MÖæc-1 KZ…©K cÖ¯‘ZK…Z ÔbxwZwba©viK‡ì Rb¨ mvi ms‡¶cÕ AskwU †bUIqv‡K©i c¶ †_‡K Abyev` K‡i wewfbœ gn‡j weZiY Kiv n‡q‡Q| Avi GB ch©v‡q IqvwK©s MÖæc-3 KZ…©K cÖ¯‘ZK…Z ÔbxwZwba©viK‡ì Rb¨ mvi ms‡¶cÕ AskwU h_vm¤¢e mnR‡eva¨ evsjvq cÖKvk Kiv nj| †bUIqv‡K©i c¶ †_‡K G RvZxq Kg©KvÐ eZ©gv‡b m~Pbv ch©v‡q _vKvq †h‡Kvb ai‡Yi fyj-ÎæwUi Rb¨ Avgiv cvVK‡ì Kv‡Q we‡klfv‡e ¶gvcÖv_x©| GKB m‡½ fwel¨‡Z †bUIqv‡K©i G RvZxq Kg©Kv‡Ð mK‡ji mn‡hvwMZv, civgk© I AskMÖnY Kvgbv KiwQ| abëv`mn, †di‡`ŠmDi ingvb m`m¨ mwPe †bUIqvK© Ab K¬vB‡gU †PÄ, evsjv‡`k Ges wbe©vnx cwiPvjK, cÖ`xcb| A‡±vei, 2007|


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K. myPbv (Introduction)

1. AvBwcwmwmwmÕi 4_© G¨‡mm‡g›U wi‡cvU© (AR4)Õi IqvwK©s MÖæc 3 Gi GB ÔbxwZwba©viK‡ì Rb¨ mvi ms‡¶cÕ As‡k bZzb êÁvwbK Z_¨-Dcv‡Ëi m‡½ m‡½ Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi †cÖ¶vc‡U cÖkgb (aspects of mitigation of climate change) m¤úwK©Z cÖhyw³-cwi‡ek-A_©bxwZ I mvgvwRK weqqmg~‡ni Dci Av‡jvKcvZ Kiv n‡q‡Q| we‡kl K‡i AvBwcwmwmwmÕi 3q G¨‡mm‡g›U wi‡cvU© (TAR,2001), CO2 wbM©gb n«vm I Kve©b mÂq m¤úwK©Z we‡kl cÖwZ‡e`b (Special Reports on CO2 Capture and Storage -SRCCS,2000) Ges IRb Íi i¶vi Dci cÖwZ‡e`b (Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System–SROCS) cÖKvk cieZx© mg‡q ‰eÁvwbK WvUv mn mvgwMÖK AMÖMwZmg~n GB wi‡cv‡U© AšÍf~©³ Kiv n‡q‡Q| Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi †cÖ¶vc‡U wgwU‡Mkb welqK bxwZwba©viK‡ì Rb¨ cÖYxZ GB mvi ms‡¶cwU m~Pbv cieZx© 6wU As‡k web¨ Í n‡q‡Q| G¸wj n‡”Q- ●wMÖbnvDm M¨vm (GHG) wbtmi‡Yi eZ©gvb MwZ-cÖK…wZ| ●wewfbœ A_©‰bwZK †¶Îmg~‡n wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb n«v‡m ¯í Ges ga¨ †gqvw` cwiKíbv (2030 mvj ch©šÍ)| ●`xN© †gqvw` wbM©gb n«vm cwiKíbv (2030 cieZx© mg‡q)| ●Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi cÖfve n«v‡m bxwZgvjv, c`‡¶c Ges Dcvq mgyn Av‡jvPbv| ●†UKmB Dbœqb Ges Rjevqy cwieZ©b n«vm Ges ‰eÁvwbK Áv‡bi mxgve×Zv| cÖwZwU Aby‡”Q‡` Pvi‡KvYv e‡· DwjøwLZ msL¨vi mvnv‡h¨ g~j cÖwZ‡e`‡bi Aa¨vq I Aby‡”Q‡` G wel‡qi D‡jøL i‡q‡Q Zv †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| GB wi‡cv‡U© eëüZ wewfbœ Uvg©m (terms), cÖwZkã (acronyms) Ges ivmvqwbK cÖwZK I ms‡KZ (chemical symbols) Gi e¨vL¨v g~j cªwZ‡e`‡bi wUKv wUàwb‡Z (glossary) cvIqv hv‡e|

L.wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb aviv (Greenhouse gas emission trends) :

2. wkí-wecøe c~e©eZx© mg‡qi Zzjbvq 1970 †_‡K 2004 Gi g‡a¨ wek¦e¨vcx wMÖbnvDm M¨vm (GHG) wbM©gb 70% e„w× †c‡q‡Q (D”P ¯^xKvh© Ges chv©ß Z_¨-cÖgvY Øviv mgw_©Z)|

●wkí-wecøe c~e©eZx© mg‡qi Zzjbvq evqygÐ‡j wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi cwigvY e„w×i †cQ‡b gvby‡li Kvh©Kjvc cÖavb f~wgKv cvjb K‡i‡Q | ● 1970 †_‡K 2004 Gi g‡a¨ wek¦e¨cx Kve©b WvB A·vBW (CO2),wg‡_b(CH4),bvBUªvmA·vBW(N2O), †n·vd¬z‡iv Kve©b (HFC5),cvid¬z‡ivKve©b(PFC5)Ges mvjdvi †d¬vivBW (SF6) Gi wbM©gb (Gme M¨v‡mi Global Worming Potential-GWP Gi wnmve Abyhvqx) cÖvq 70% †e‡o‡Q hv 28.7 †_‡K 49 wMMv Ub CO2 mgZzj¨ (GtCO2-eq)2, Avi Gi g‡a¨ 24 kZvsk e„w× N‡U‡Q 1990 †_‡K 2004 mv‡ji

g‡a¨ (wPÎ-1 ªóe¨)| Aek¨ GB M¨vmmgy‡ni wbM©gb Amg nv‡i e„w× †c‡q‡Q| †hgb 1970 †_‡K 2004 Gi g‡a¨ CO2 Gi wbM©gb †e‡o‡Q 80% (ïaygvÎ 1990 †_‡K 2004 mv‡ji g‡a¨ e„w× †c‡q‡Q 28 kZvsk)-hv 2004 mv‡j wn‡m‡e gvbem„ó Kvi‡Y wbM©Z ‡gvU wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi 77 kZvsk| ●1990 †_‡K 2004 mv‡ji g‡a¨ wek¦e¨vcx me‡P‡q †ekx wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi wbM©gb N‡U‡Q kw³ mieivn Lv‡Z (energy supply sector) (145% e„w×)| G mg‡q cwienY Lv‡Z wbtmiY e„w× wQj 120%, wkí KviLvbvq 65% Ges f~wgi eënvi, f~wgi cwiewZ©Z eënvi, ebR m¤ú` (LULUCF)

4 †_‡K G‡m‡Q 40%5| 1970 †_‡K 1990 Gi g‡a¨ K„wlLvZ ‡_‡K mivmwi wbM©gb e„w× N‡U‡Q 27% Ges AeKvVv‡gv LvZ †_‡K 26%, Aek¨ cieZx©Kv‡j G yB Lv‡Z wbM©g‡bi gvÎv cÖvq 1990mv‡ji ch©v‡q Ae¨nZ wQj| †h‡nZz AeKvVv‡gv Lv‡Z we`ÿr eënv‡ii nvi A‡bK †ewk, ZvB GB LvZ †_‡K †_‡K cÖZ¨¶ wbM©g‡bi Zzjbvq c‡iv¶ wbM©gb A‡bK †ekx (75%)| ●1970 †_‡K 2004 mg‡q wek¦e¨vcx wbM©g‡bi Dci kw³i wbweoZv n«v‡mi (-33%) cÖfve wek¦e¨vcx Avq e„w×i cÖfve (77%) Ges wek¦e¨vcx RbmsL¨v e„w×i (69%) mw¤§wjZ cÖfv‡ei †P‡q Kg wQj-Avi GB ywUB kw³ mswkøó CO2

wbM©gb e„w×i (energy-related CO2 emissions) wbqvgK ev KviY (drivers) ( ªóe¨: wPÎ 2)| kw³ mieiv‡n Kve©‡bi wbweoZv n«v‡mi `xN©‡gqvw` aviv 2000 mv‡ji c‡i cwiewZ©Z nq| †`k¸‡jvi g‡a¨ gv_vwcQy Avq, gv_vwcQy wbM©gb Ges kw³i wbweoZvi †¶‡Î eo ai‡bi cv_©K¨ i‡qB †M‡Q (wPÎ:3)| RvwZm‡•Ni †d«gIqvK© Kb‡fbkb Ab K¬vB‡gU †”Ä (UNFCCC)Õi Annex-1 Gi AšÍf©~³ †`kmgy‡n i‡q‡Q we‡k¦i RbmsL¨vi 20 kZvsk (2004 mv‡ji wnmve Abyhvqx), hviv we‡k¦i wRwWwcÕi 57% Askx`vi (GDPppp Gi wfwË‡Z)6 Ges GKB m‡½ we‡k¦i 46 kZvsk wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi wbM©g‡bi R‡bÏ `vqx (wPÎ: 3)| ● gw›Uªj cÖ‡UvK‡ji gva¨‡g IRb¯Íi ¶‡q `vqx e ‘KYv (Ozone Depleting Substances-ODS)7 mg~‡ni (G mKj e¯‘KYvI wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi AšÍf©~³) wbM©gb wbqš¿Y Kiv n‡q‡Q Ges G mKj e¯‘KYvi wbtmiY 1990 mvj †_‡K D‡jøL‡hvM¨fv‡e n«vm †c‡q‡Q| 2004 mv‡j D³ M¨vm mgy‡ni wbM©gb gvÎv 1990 mv‡ji wbM©gb gvÎvi 20% n‡q‡Q| ●we‡k¦i wewfbœ †`‡k A‡bK¸wj †m±‡i Rjevqy cwieZ©b, R¡vjvwb wbivcËv Ges †UKmB Dbœqb msµvšÍGK¸”Q bxwZ wba©viY I cwiKíbv cÖYqb wMÖbnvDm M¨vm cÖkg‡b mnvqK f~wgKv cvjb K‡i‡Q| Aek¨ G mKj D‡`¨v‡Mi gvÎv I MfxiZv wek¦e¨vcx wbM©gb e„w×i weiæ‡× Kvh©Ki cÖwZ‡iva M‡o Zzj‡Z h‡_ó bq |


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1. cÖwZwU wk‡ivbv‡gi AvIZvq wee„Z weqq‡K GKwU Ô¯xKvh©/Z_¨-cÖgvYÕ (agreement/evidenc) Gi m‡½ m¤ú„³ ivLv n‡q‡Q- hv c‡i wee„Z ey‡jU wPwýZ eY©bv ¸wj Øviv mgw_©Z| Avevi GUv GI †evSvq bv †h cÖvwZwU ey‡jU wPwýZ eY©bvq GKB Í‡ii Ô¯xKvh©/Z_¨-cÖgvYÕ (agreement/evidenc) m¤ú„³Zv cvIqv hv‡e| GB mvi-ms‡¶‡ci †k‡l ms‡hvwRZ 1bs e·wU Dc ’vc‡bi †¶‡Î G ai‡bi AwbðqZvi e¨vL¨v cÖ`vb K‡i| 2. Kve©b WvB A·vBW mgZ~‡jï (CO2-eq) A_© n‡”Q Kve©b WvB A·vBW wbM©g‡Yi Rb¨ hZUv †iwW‡qwUf †dvwms (radiative forcing) NU‡Q, †mB cwigvY †iwW‡qwUf †dvwms NUv‡Z †h cwigvY wgwkªZ wMÖbnvDm M¨vmmg~‡ni wbtmiY cÖ‡qvRb n‡”Q Zvi gvb| mKj wMÖbnvDm M¨vm¸wj‡K Zv‡ì wb‡R‡ì Global Warming Potential (GWPs) Ges evqygÐ‡j wewfbœ mg‡q we`¨gvb _vKvi welqwUi Dci wfwË K‡i wnmve Kiv n‡q‡Q [WG1 AR4 Glossary] | 3. cÖwZUv †¶‡Îi cÖZ¨¶ wbM©g‡Y we`y¨r †¶‡Îi eënvi †_‡K Drcbœ wbM©gb AšÍf©z³ nqwb A_©vr Avevm‡b, KjKviLvbvq, K…wl †¶‡Î we`y¨‡Zi eënvi ev cwienb †¶‡Î R¡vjvwb mieiv‡ni Rb¨ ˆZj †kvabvMv‡ii wbM©gb| 4. Ôf~wg eënvi, f~wg eënvi cwieZ©b Ges ebR m¤ú`Õ (LULUCF) GLv‡b eëüZ n‡q‡Q- ebDRvo, ev‡qvgvm Ges KvV `n‡bi d‡j, eb webvk Ges DRvwoZ Mv‡Qi Aewkó As‡ki ev‡qvgv‡mi cPbwµqv (decompose)Gi d‡j Ges cxU Kqjvi wWK‡¤úvwRkb (decomposion) Ges Gi `nb †_‡K m„ó CO2, CH4, N2O M¨v‡mi GKwÎf~Z wbM©gY‡K eySv‡Z]| ebDRv‡oi d‡j Drcbœ wbM©g‡bi †P‡q GUv e¨cK I cwigv‡Y eo, G Kvi‡Y ebDRvo GLv‡b ewY©Z GB ÔLULUCF’ Gi GKwU Dc‡¶Î (subset) wn‡m‡e AšÍf©~³ n‡q‡Q| GLv‡b DwjøLZ wbM©g‡bi g‡a¨ Kve©b MÖnY (uptake) ev webvkb (removals) †K AšÍf©z³ Kiv nq wb| 5. G wnmve mgMÖ f~wg eënvi, f~wg eënvi cwieZ©b Ges ebR LvZ (LULUCF) †_‡K wbtmi‡Yi Rb¨, †hLv‡b eb DRvo †_‡K wbtmiY n‡”Q GKwU Dc‡¶Î (subset) Ges Z‡_ï eo iK‡gi AwbðqZvi (data uncertainties) Rb¨ GwU Ab¨vb¨ †¶‡Îi Zzjbvq Kg wbðqZvc~Y© | Aek¨ 2000-2005 mg‡q eb DRv‡oi nvi 1990-2000 mv‡ji †P‡q mgvb¨ Kg wQj [9.2.1]| 6. GDPppp cwigvc eënvi Kiv n‡q‡Q †Kej gvÎ GB cÖwZ‡e`‡bi R‡b¨| PPP Ges evRvi wewbgq nvi(MER) wnmv‡ei R‡b¨ cv`wUKv 12 †`Lyb| 7. n¨vjb, †K¬vi‡d¬vi Kve©b (CFCs), nvB‡Wªv †K¬vi‡d¬vi Kve©b(HCFCs), wg_vBj †K¬vidg©(CH3CCl3), Kve©b †UUªv †K¬vivBW(CCl4),Ges wg_vBj †eªvgvBW (CH3Br)| 8.R¡vjvwb wbivcËv ej‡Z R¡vjvwb mieiv‡ni wbivcËv‡K eySv‡bv n‡q‡Q|

wPÎ SPM 1: Global Warming Potential (GWP) cwigv‡ci †¶‡Î 1970-2004 ch©šÍ wek¦e¨vcx wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb‡K aiv n‡q‡Q| 100 eQ‡ii GWP †K CO2Gi mgZ~j¨ nv‡i cÖKvk Ki‡Z GLv‡b IPCC 1996 (SAR) eëüZ n‡q‡Q (cf. UNFCCC reporting guidelines)| G Qvov mKj Dr‡mi CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC5,PFC5 Ges SF6

wbM©g‡bi wnmve GLv‡b AšÍf©~³ Kiv n‡q‡Q| wP‡Î kw³ Drcv`b I eënvi (bxP †_‡K 2q) Ges f~wg eënvi cwieZ©b (bxP †_‡K 3q) GB `yB †kªYxi CO2 wbM©gb †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q [Figure 1.1a]| GLv‡b †h SRES 2000 wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb aiv n‡q‡Q, Zv nj cÖwZ eQ‡i 39.8 wMMvUb Kve©b WvB A·vB‡Wi mgvb A_©vr 2000 mv‡j WvUv‡em cÖwZ‡e`‡b D‡jøwLZ wbM©gb Av‡c¶v Kg, GB eëav‡bi KviY nj Gi f~wg eënvi, f~wg eënvi cwieZ©b Ges ebR (LULUCF) LvZ †_‡K wbM©g‡bi Rb¨|

†bvU: 1.wk‡í Drcbœ, ebDRvo/mvfvbv AÂ‡j `vevbj, eR©¨cvwb Ges eR©¨ †cvovbv mn Ab¨vb¨ Drm †_‡K Drcbœ Ab¨vb¨ N2O

2.wk‡í Drcbœ Ges mvfvbv AÂ‡j `vevb‡ji d‡j Drcbœ CH4

3.ev‡qv-GbvwR© Drcv`b I eënv‡ii d‡j m„ó wbM©gbmn|

4.MvQ KvUv I ebDRv‡oi c‡i gvwU‡Z †_‡K hvIqv ˆRe As‡ki cPb n‡Z wbM©Z Ges wcU R¡vjvwb I wbM©Z wcU gvwUi cP‡bi (decay of drained peat soils) d‡j m„ó CO2

5. mvaviYfv‡e ˆRe c`v‡_©i (traditional biomass use) †gvU 10% eënvi Kiv nq,Abygvb Kiv hvq †h 90% ev‡qvgvm †UKmB ˆRe c`v_© Drcv`b †_‡K Av‡m| †cvov‡bvi ci ˆRe c`v‡_©i 10% Kve©b Pvi‡Kvj wn‡m‡e Aewkó †_‡K hvq|

6. m¨v‡UjvBU DcvË wfwËK ‰ewk¦K AwMœwbtmiY Z_¨ Abyhvqx 1997 †_‡K 2000 mvj ch©šÍ e„n`vqZ‡bi eb Ges jZv¸j¥ f~wgi (scrubland) ˆRe c`v‡_©i (biomass) ‡cvov‡bvi Mo|

7. wm‡g›U Drcv`b Ges cÖvK…wZK M¨v‡mi cÖ¾jb| 8. Rxevk¥ R¡vjvwbi eënvimn cïLv`¨ †_‡K wbM©gb|


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3. wMÖbnvDm M¨vm cÖkgb msµvšÍ eZ©gvb bxwZgvjv Ges mswkøó †UKmB Dbœqb avivq BwZevPK cwieZ©b bv NU‡j wek¦e¨vcx wMªbnvDm M¨v‡mi wbM©gb e„w× AvMvgx K‡qK `kKe¨vcx Ae¨nZ _vK‡e (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY ) |

SRES Gi cÖkgb e¨wZZ (non-mitigation) „k¨K‡íi mvnv‡h¨ Abygvb Kiv hvq †h, wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb n«v‡mi D‡`¨vM MÖnY Kiv bv n‡j 2000 †_‡K 20309 mv‡ji g‡a¨ wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi êwk¦K wbtmiY eZ©gv‡b 9.7 wMMvUb Kve©b WvB A·vB‡Wi mgZ~j¨ (GtCO2-eq) †_‡K 36.7 wMMvUb Kve©b WvB A·vB‡Wi mgZ~j¨ (25-90%) cwigv‡Y DbœxZ n‡e (Box SPM.1 Ges wPÎ: SPM.4)| G wP‡Î 2030 Ges cieZx© mg‡q Rxevk¥ R¡vjvwb‡K wek¦e¨vcx kw³ mieiv‡ni cÖavbZg Drm wn‡m‡e †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| hvi d‡j kw³ eënv‡ii †¶‡Î

CO2 Gi wbM©gb 2000 †_‡K 2030 Gi g‡a¨ 45% †_‡K 110% ch©šÍe„w× †c‡Z cv‡i| G e„w×i yB-Z…Zxqvsk †_‡K wZb PZz_©vsk wbM©gb NU‡e Non Annex-1†`k mg~n †_‡K| hwÌ 2030 mvj bvMv` Non Annex-1 †`k¸wji gv_vwcQy wbM©gb eive‡ii g‡Zv (gv_vwcQy 2.8-5.1 Ub CO2 mgZ~j¨) Annex-1 f~³ †`k¸wji Zzjbvq (gv_vwcQy 9.6-15.1 Ub Kve©b WvB A·vBW mgZ~j¨) h‡_ó Kg _vK‡e| Avevi SRES Gi „k¨K‡íi Abyhvqx Annex-1 f~³ †`k¸wj‡Z cÖwZ GKK wRwWwc (per unit of GDP)Õi †¶‡Î R¡vjvwb kw³i eënvi (6.2-9.9 wgwjqb Ryj/BDGm Wjvi wRwWwc 6.2 – 9.9

MJ/US$ GDP) Non Annex-1 †`k mgy‡ni (11.0-21.6 wgwjqb Ryj/BDGm Wjvi wRwWwc- (11.0 – 21.6 MJ/US$GDP)

Zzjbvq Kg _vK‡e|

wPÎ SPM 2: ‰ewk¦K A_©‰bwZK Dbœqb cwigv‡c GLv‡b †gvU Af¨šÍixY Drcv`b (GDP) †K Purchase Power Parity (PPP), †gvU cÖv_wgK kw³ mieivn (Total Primary Energy Supply-TPES), CO2 wbM©gb (Rxevk¥ R¡vjvwb I M¨v‡mi eënvi (flaring ) Ges wm‡g›U Drcv`b) Ges RbmsL¨v (Pop) Gi gva¨‡g cwigvc Kiv n‡q‡Q| GQvovI WU ‡iLvi gva¨‡g gv_vwcQz Avq (GDPPPP/Pop), kw³ eënv‡ii wbweoZv (TPES/GDPppp), kw³ mieiv‡n Kve©‡bi wbweoZv (CO2/TPES)Ges 1970-2004 mg‡q cY¨ Drcv`‡b wbtmi‡Yi wbweoZv (CO2

/GDPppp) cÖKvk Kiv n‡q‡Q|

wPÎ SPM 3 K: 2004 mv‡j wewfbœ MÖæ‡ci AvIZvf~³ †`k¸wji RbmsL¨vi wfwË‡Z gv_v wcQz wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb (f~wg eënv‡ii Kvi‡Y m„ó wMÖbnvDm M¨vm mg~nmn wKq‡Uv cÖ‡UvK‡ji AvIZvaxb mKj M¨vm mg~n)| ev‡ii (bars) Af¨šÍ‡i cÖ`wk©Z kZKiv nvi mg~n êwk¦K wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©g‡b GK GKwU AÂ‡ji Ask‡K cÖ`k©b Ki‡Q [1.4K bs wPÎ]|

wPÎ SPM 3 L:2004 mv‡j AÂwjK wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb wPÎ (f~wg eënvi †_‡K m„ó wMÖbnvDm M¨vmmn wKq‡Uv cÖ‡UvK‡ji AvIZvaxb mKj M¨vmmg~n)-hv wewfbœ MÖæcf~³ †`k¸wji †gvU GDPPPPwfwËK cÖwZ BDGm Wjvi GDPPPP nv‡i cÖ`wk©Z n‡q‡Q| ev‡ii (bars) wfZ‡i cÖ`wk©Z kZKiv nvi mg~n êwk¦K wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©g‡b GK GKwU AÂ‡ji Ask‡K cÖ`k©b Ki‡Q [1.4L bs wPÎ ]|


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wPÎ SPM 4: 2000 mv‡ji wek¦e¨vcx wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbtmib‡K10 wfwË eQi a‡i 2030 Ges 2100 mv‡ji m¤¢ve¨ (projected) wbtmiY IPCCÕi SRES I SRES cieZ©x M‡elYv Kg© †_‡K cÖ`wk©Z n‡q‡Q| wP‡Î cÖ`wk©Z wewfbœ wMÖbnvDm M¨vm mgy‡ni wbti‡Yi gvb 6wU SRES scenarios †_‡K cÖ`k©b Kiv n‡q‡Q| GUv AviI SRES cieZ©x mg‡q ch©vqµ‡g (5g,25Zg,ga¨K,75Zg,95 kZvs‡k) wMÖb nvDm M¨vm¸wji wbtmiY cÖ`k©b Ki‡Q (G m¤ú‡K© Aa¨vq wZb G we¯ÍvwiZ Av‡jvPbv Kiv n‡q‡Q)| F-gases GLv‡b HFCs,PFCs Ges SF6 M¨m mg~n‡K eySv‡bv n‡q‡Q [1.3, 3.2, Figure 1.7]|

4. SRES10 cÖKvk cieZx© mg‡q cÖKvwkZ †emjvBb wbM©g‡bi wPÎKí (scenarios) mgy‡ni mxgv (range) IPCCÕi wbtmiY m¤úwK©Z we‡kl cÖwZ‡e`b (Special Report on Emission Scenarios-SRES) G Dc¯’vwcZ wbM©gb mxgvi (range) m‡½ Zzjbxq (2100 mv‡ji g‡a¨ 25-135 GtCO2-eq/yr,wPÎ †`Lyb SPM4), (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY)|

SRES cieZx© mg‡qi M‡elYvq wbM©g‡bi cÖavb cÖavb wKQy wKQy PvwjKv kw³i (drivers for emissions) wb¤œZg gvb we‡ePbv Kiv n‡q‡Q, Gi g‡a¨ RbmsL¨v Ab¨Zg| Aek¨ wKQy M‡elYvq RbmsL¨v e„w×i bZzb AbyKí (projections) mg~n‡K we‡ePbvq G‡b Ab¨vb¨ PvjK (drivers for emissions) mg~‡ni cwieZ©b (†hgb A_©‰bwZK cÖe„w×) †K wnmve Kiv n‡q‡Q| wKš‘ †m †¶‡ÎI mvgwMÖK wbM©gb ¯Í‡ii (overall emission levels) mvgvb¨ cwieZ©b cwijw¶Z n‡q‡Q| SRES cieZ©x mg‡q 2030 bvMv` Avwd«Kv, `w¶Y Av‡gwiKv Ges ga¨cÖv‡Pï Rb¨ AbyKwíZ (projected) †emjvBb (baseline) wbtmiY wPÎ SRES AbyK‡í (projection) cÖ`wk©Z

wbtmi‡Yi Zzjbv Kg| wKš‘ wek¦e¨vcx A_©‰bwZK cÖe„w× Ges mgwMÖK wbM©g‡bi Dci Gi cÖfve Lye mvgvb¨ (3.2)| ◘ G‡ivm‡ji AšÍf©y³ Ges G‡ivmj cye©m~PK (precursor) wbtmiY †hgb mvjdvi WvB A·vBW, K…ò Kve©b (Black Carbon) Ges ˆRe Kve©b (hv‡ì kxZjxKiY11 cÖfve i‡q‡Q) Gi cwigvY e„w× †c‡q‡Q| mvaviYfv‡e G¸‡jv SRES cÖwZ‡e`‡b DwjøwLZ AbyK‡íi Zzjbvq wbgœgyLx n‡e e‡j Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q| ◘ G hver M‡elYv jä Z_¨ †_‡K †`Lv wM‡q‡Q †h, m½wZc~Y© eënvi Ki‡j GDPÕi (MER ev PPP) nv‡i cwieZ©b m¤¢ve¨ (projected) wbtmi‡bi Dci †Kvb eo cÖfve †d‡j bv12| Aek¨ hw` †Kvb cv_©K¨ cwijw¶Z nq Z‡e Zv AwbðqZvi (uncertainties)m‡½ Zzjbvq mvgvb¨ Ges wbtmiY wPÎK‡íi(scenarios) Ab¨‡Kvb êwkó ev avivi (parameters) Kvi‡Y N‡U _vK‡e (†hgb: cÖhyw³MZ cwieZ©b ) |

9. AvBwcwmwmÕi SRES 2000 wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb wi‡cv‡U© 2030 mvj bvMv` êwk¦K wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©g‡bi mw¤§wjZ cwigvY 39.8 wMMvUb CO2

mgZ~j¨ (GtCO2-eq) aiv n‡q‡Q, hv 2000 mv‡ji EDGAR WvUv‡em wi‡cvU© Abyhvqx 45 wMMvUb CO2 mgZ~j¨ (45 GtCO2-eq) Gi Zzjbvq

Kg| GB cv_©‡Kï KviY cÖavbZ LULUCF (f~wg eënvi, f~wg eënvi cwieZ©b Ges ebR LvZ) †_‡K wbM©gb cwigv‡Y cv_©‡Ki Kvi‡Y N‡U‡Q| 10. Additional climate policy baseline scenarios Gi AšÍf©y³ nq wb, GgbwK mv¤cÖwZK Pzw³ mg~nI| AwZ mv¤cÖwZK M‡elYv mg~nI UNFCC Ges Kyoto protocol Gi AšÍ©f~w³i wel‡q wfbœgZ †cvlY K‡i| 11. AR4 WGI cÖwZ‡e`b †`Lyb, Aa¨vq 10.2 12. TAR cieZx© mg‡q wbM©gb `„k¨K‡í (scenarios) wewfbœ wewbgq nv‡ii eënvi m¤ú‡K© weZK© P‡j Avm‡Q| wewfbœ †`‡ki g‡a¨ GDP Gi Zzjbv Ki‡Z `ywU cwigvc c×wZ eëüZ n‡”Q| AvšÍR©vwZK evwbwR¨K cY¨ wewbgq we‡køl‡Yi †¶‡Î MER Gi eënvi evÃbxq| Ab¨w`‡K Dbœq‡bi wfbœ wfbœ ch©v‡q _vKv wewfbœ ‡`‡ki Av‡qi Zzjbv gyjK we‡køl‡b PPP Gi eënvi evÃbxq| G cÖwZ‡e`‡b AwaKvsk Aw_©K GKK (monetary units) MER G cÖKvk Kiv n‡q‡Q| GwU cÖkgb (mitigation) M‡elYvi msL¨vaxK¨‡K Dc¯’vcb K‡i, hv MER G mgw_©Z (calibrated) n‡q‡Q| hLb Aw_©K GKK mg~n‡K PPP †Z cÖKvk Kiv nq ZLb Zv‡K GDPppp wn‡m‡e †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q|


5

e·: SPM.1 AvBwcwmwmÕi Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) Abymv‡i wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb `„k¨ (Box SPM.1: The emission scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios -SRES)

A1: A1 AvBwcwmwmÕi GKwU we‡kl wi‡cv‡U© DwjøwLZ wbM©gb fwelr AbyKí (storyline) I `„k¨mg~‡ni g‡a¨ A1 MÖæ‡ci `„k¨¸wj AZ¨šÍ `ªæZ A_©‰bwZK cÖe„w×kvjx GK fwel¨‡Zi K_v Zz‡j a‡i‡Q| GKB m‡½ GB `„k¨¸wj‡Z Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q †h G kZvãxi gvSvgvwS mg‡q RbmsL¨vi e„w× m‡e©v”P ch©v‡q Avm‡e Ges Zvici Zv n«vm cv‡e e‡j| GKB m‡½ `ªæZ bZzb Ges AviI `¶Zv m¤úbœ, mvkªqx cÖhyw³i m~Pbv n‡e e‡j Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q| G Dbœqb wewfbœ AÂj¸wj‡Z †K›`ªxf~Z n‡jI `¶Zv e„w× I mvgvwRK-mvs¯‹…wZK Av`vb-cÖ`vb e„w× cv‡e Ges GKB m‡½ AÂjwfwËK gv_vwcQy Avq êlg¨ j¶Yxqfv‡e e„w× cv‡e| A1 MÖæ‡ci `„k¨¸wj‡K 3wU fv‡M fvM Kiv hvq hv GbvwR© eë¯’vi g‡a¨ cÖhyw³MZ cwieZ©‡bi weKí cš’v¸wj Dci Av‡jvKcvZ K‡i‡Q| A1 MÖæ‡ci GB wZbwU fv‡M wZbwU cÖhyw³MZ wel‡qi Dci †Rvi †Ìqv n‡q‡Q| †hgb:A1FI n‡”Q Rxevk¥ R¡vjvwbwfwËK, A1T Rxevk¥RvZ bv Ggb kw³ Drm m¤úwK©Z (non-fossil energy sources), A1B kw³i mKj Dr‡mi g‡a¨ fvimvg¨ i¶v (balance across all sources) m¤úwK©Z (Aek¨ GLv‡b fvimvg¨ ej‡Z GKwU kw³ Dr‡mi Dci AwZgvÎvq wbf©ikxj bv nIqv‡K eySv‡bv n‡q‡Q Ges Abygvb Kiv n‡”Q †h mKj kw³i mieiv‡ni Dbœqb NUv‡bv n‡e I cÖhyw³i me©vwaK eënvi Kiv n‡e)| A2: A2 MÖæ‡ci AbyKí I `„k¨mg~‡n AZ¨šÍ msNvZc~Y© c„w_exi wPÎ Dc¯’vcb Kiv n‡q‡Q| GLv‡b e¨w³i m¶gZv (self reliance) I AvÂwjK cwiwPwZ i¶vi Dci †Rvi †Ìqv n‡q‡Q| GLv‡b Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q †h, AÂjwfwËK De©iZvi aiY (Fertility patterns) ax‡i ax‡i mg‡K›`ªxK n‡e Ges hvi d‡j RbmsL¨v e„w×i nvi Ae¨nZ _vK‡e| Z‡e A_©‰bwZK cÖe„w× AvÂwjKfv‡eB AwR©Z n‡e| G Qvov Ab¨vb¨ `„‡kï Zzjbvq GB `„k¨mg~‡n gv_vwcQy Avq I cÖhyw³MZ Dbœqb AviI wew”Qbœfv‡e I ax‡i ax‡i NU‡e e‡j Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q| B1: B1 MÖæ‡ci AbyKí I `„k¨mg~‡n GKwU mgagx© wek¦ I cÖvq AcwiewZ©Z RbmsL¨v Ges hv A2 MÖæ‡ci AbyKí I `„k¨mg~‡ni m‡½ m½wZ †i‡L eZ©gvb kZ‡Ki gvSvgvwS m‡e©v‡”P †cŠuQy‡e Ges Zvi ci n«vm cv‡e e‡j Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q| Z‡e GKB m‡½ GB AbyKí I `„k¨mg~‡n A_©‰bwZK KvVv‡gv‡Z `ªæZ cwieZ©bkxjZv Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q, hv †mev I Z_¨ cÖhyw³ wfwËK A_©‰bwZK KvVv‡gv MV‡bi w`‡K GwM‡q hv‡”Q| GKB m‡½ e¯‘MZ m¤ú‡ì Dci wbf©ikxjZv n«vm Ges `~lYgy³ I R¡vjvwb eënv‡i `¶ cÖhyw³ eë¯’vi m~Pbv n‡e e‡j Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q| GB `„‡k¨ wek¦e¨vcx A_©‰bwZK, mvgvwRK I cwi‡ekMZ †UKmB eë¯’vcbvi cvkvcvwk mgZvi Dc‡i †Rvi †Ìqv n‡jI Rjevqy cwieZ©b †gvKv‡ejvq evowZ D‡`¨vM‡K we‡ePbvq ivLv nqwb| B2: B2 MÖæ‡ci AbyKí I `„k¨mg~‡n A_©‰bwZK, mvgvwRK I cwi‡ekMZ †UKmB eë¯’vcbvi †¶‡Î ¯’vbxq mgvav‡bi Dci wbf©ikxj GKwU we‡k¦i K_v Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q| GB `„‡k¨ wek¦ RbmsL¨v e„w×i nvi A1 `„‡kï Zzjbvq Kg, A_©‰bwZK Dbœqb gvSvwi ch©v‡qi Ges cÖhyw³MZ Dbœq‡bi MwZ B1Ges A1 Gi Zzjbvq Kg n‡jI AwaK êwPÎ¨gq| GQvov GB `„‡k¨ AvÂwjK I ¯’vbxq ch©v‡q cwi‡ekMZ myi¶v Ges mvgvwRK mgZvi Dci w`KcvZ Kiv n‡q‡Q| A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2, B1 Ges B2 GB 6wU `„k¨‡K mgvb ¸iæZ¡ w`‡q GKwU mgwš^Z we¯Z…Z wPÎ Zz‡j aiv n‡q‡Q| Z‡e GB SRES wbM©gb fwel¨r AbyKí (storyline) I `„k¨mg~‡n Rjevqy cwieZ©b †iv‡a M„nxZ eë¯’vmgyn A_©vr RvwZm‡•Ni Rjevqy cwieZ©b msµvšÍ †d«gIqvK© Kb‡fbkb Gi ev¯Íevqb ev wK‡qv‡Uv Pzw³i AvIZvq wba©vwiZ cÖkgb j¶¨gvÎvi welqwU ‡Kvb `„‡k¨B AšÍf©~³ nqwb| GB e‡· TAR-G wee„Z SRES `„k¨¸‡jvi mvims‡¶c †Ìqv n‡q‡Q hvi cÖwZwU jvBb c¨v‡bj KZ©…K Aby‡gv`b mv‡c¶|

e· SPM 2: cÖkgb m¤¢vebv Ges we‡kølYg~jK cš’vmg~n (Box SPM.2: Mitigation potential and analytical approaches)

ÔcÖkgb m¤¢vebvÕ (mitigation potential) aviYvwUi D™¢e n‡q‡Q wMÖbnvDm M¨vm mg~n cÖkg‡bi m¤¢ve¨Zvi mxgv (scale) cwigvc (assess) Ki‡Z †h‡q, hv wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi wbM©g‡bi m‡½ Ges Kve©‡bi GKwU wbw ©ó ch©v‡qi `v‡gi m‡½ m¤úK©hy³ (hv mvkªqK…Z cÖwZ BDwbU CO2

M¨v‡mi `v‡gi AvKv‡i D‡jøwLZ)| cÖkgb m¤¢vebv‡K Avevi ÔevRvi m¤¢vvebvÕ I ÔA_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebvÕ GB yBfv‡M wef³ Kiv hvq| evRvi m¤¢vebv (Market potential) n‡”Q e¨w³MZ e¨q (private costs) Ges e¨w³MZ wWmKvD›U †iU13 (private discount rates) wfwËK cÖkgb m¤¢vebv, hv evRvi eë ’vi Ae ’v m¤ú‡K© fwel¨ØvYxi wfwË‡Z Ges mswkøó bxwZgvjv I eZ©gv‡b M„nxZ c`‡¶c mg~n‡K we‡ePbvq †i‡L ‰Zwi n‡Z cv‡i (might be expected to occur)| Z‡e G †¶‡Î G K_v g‡b ivL‡Z n‡e †h G‡¶‡Î cÖwZeÜKZv mg~n cÖK„Z myweav‡K (actual uptake) mxwgZ K‡i w`‡Z cv‡i|


6

(c~e© c„ôvi ci)

A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv (Economic potential) n‡”Q cÖkg‡bi †mB m¤¢vebv, hv mvgvwRK gyj¨ I jvf Ges mvgvwRK Qv‡oi nvi14 (social discount rates) †K we‡ePbvq iv‡L| G †¶‡Î a‡i †bIqv nq †h evRvi eë ’vcbvi `¶Zv h_vh_ bxwZgvjvi gva¨‡g e„w× Kiv hvq Ges evRvi eë ’vi cÖeÜKZv mg~n mwVK c`‡¶c MÖn‡Yi gva¨‡g yixf~Z n‡e| evRvi m¤¢vebvi Dci M‡elYv eZ©gvb bxwZ Ges cÖwZeÜKZv mg~nmn cÖkgb m¤¢vebv m¤ú‡K© bxwZ wba©viK‡ì‡K AwewnZ Ki‡Z mnvqK| wecix‡Z A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv msµvšÍ M‡elYv mvgvwRK e¨q I Dc‡hvM (social costs and benefits) mg~n‡K we‡ePbvq †i‡L evRvi eë ’vi evavmg~n ~i Ki‡Z mwVKfv‡e bZzb I Avbylvw½K bxwZgvjv cÖeZ©‡bi d‡j wK AwR©Z n‡e Zv Zz‡j a‡i| G Rb¨ evRvi m¤¢vebvi Zzjbvq A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv‡K mvaviYfv‡e †ewk ¸iæZ¡ †Ìqv nq| cÖkgb m¤¢vebv‡K †ek K‡qKfv‡e cwigvc Kiv n‡q _v‡K| Z‡e ÔZjv †_‡K Dc‡iÕ (bottom-up) Ges ÔDci †_‡K bx‡PÕ (top-down) GB yB c×wZ (hv cÖavbZ A_©‰bwZK m¤¢ve¨Zv‡K cwigvc K‡i _v‡K) †ewk eëüZ nq | ÔZjv †_‡K Dc‡iÕ M‡elYv wbM©gb n«v‡mi m¤¢ve¨ cš’v mg~n †LuvRv, mywbw „©ó cÖhyw³ I wewa-wb‡l‡ai (regulations) Dci ¸iæZ¡ w`‡q _v‡K| G RvZxq M‡elYv g~jZ cÖPwjZ (typicall) LwÐZ M‡elYv (sectoral studies) hv mvgwóK A_©bxwZ‡K AcwieZ©bxq e‡j a‡i †bq| mewgwj‡q LwÐZ M‡elYv (sectoral studies) ¸wj TAR Gi Abyiƒc GB cÖwZ‡e`‡bI GKwU êwk¦K cÖkg‡bi m¤¢vebv‡K (global mitigation potential) Zz‡j a‡i‡Q| ÔDci †_‡K bx‡PÕ M‡elYv A_©bxwZ-wfwËK (economy-wide) cÖkg‡bi m¤¢vebv wba©vi‡b mwµq|ZvB G¸‡jv wek¦Ry‡o GKBf~Z KvVv‡gv (globally consistent frameworks) Ges cÖkgb m¤úwK©Z Z_¨¸wj‡K GKwÎZ K‡i Ges GKB m‡½ mvgwóK-A_©bxwZ I eRvi eë ’vi wdWe¨vK ¸wj‡KI M‡elYvi AvIZvf~³ K‡i| ÔZjv †_‡K Dc‡iÕ g‡Wj ¸‡jv cÖhyw³ wbf©i cÖkgb c×wZ¸wj (technological mitigation options) †ewk MÖnY K‡i‡Q Ges ÔDci †_‡K bx‡PÕ ¸‡jv mvgwóK A_©bxwZ Ges evRvi eë ’vi wdWe¨vK (market feedbacks) cÖwµqv‡K wb‡R‡ì M‡elYvi AšÍf~©³ K‡i‡Q, GgbwK GB g‡W‡j Awf‡hvR‡bi evavmg~n‡KI (adopting barrier) we‡kølY Kiv n‡q‡Q| Gme Kvi‡Y TAR

Gi mgq †_‡KB GB g‡Wj ywU wbKUZi n‡q D‡V‡Q| Aek¨ ÔZjv †_‡K Dc‡iÕ M‡elYv †Kvb †m±‡i mywbw ©ó †Kvb bxwZgvjvi m¤¢vebv hvPvB Gi †¶‡Î AwaKZi Dc‡hvMx- †hgb: R¡vjvwb `¶Zv e„w×i cš’v hvPvB| Ab¨w`‡K ÔDci †_‡K bx‡PÕ M‡elYv¸‡jv GKvwaK †m±i mswkøó (cross-sectoral)Ges A_©bxwZ-wfwËK Rjevhy cwieZ©b msµvšÍ bxwZgvjvmg~n hvPvB‡q †ewk Dc‡hvMx-†hgb: Kve©b U¨v· (carbon taxes) Ges Kve©b w ’wZKiY (stabilization) msµvšÍ bxwZgvjv| Aek¨ A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv we‡ePbvi †¶‡Î, Rxeb-aviv evQvB (life-style choices) Ges ’vbxq evqy ylY RvZxq mKj ai‡bi evwn¨K welq (all externalities)†K we‡ePbv Kivi †¶‡Î eZ©gvb ÔZjv †_‡K Dc‡iÕ Ges ÔDci †_‡K bx‡PÕ GB yB c×wZiB mxgve×Zv i‡q‡Q| G¸‡jv †KejgvÎ we‡kl †Kvb †Kvb AÂj, †`k ev †¶‡Îi Ges evav¸‡jvi cÖwZwbwaZ¡ Kivi Kvi‡Y mxgve× n‡q c‡o‡Q| ZvQvov Rjevqy cwieZ©b hw` bv N‡U Z‡e KZUv cwieZ©b n‡e Zvi †Kvb Bw½Z GB yB cÖKvi hvPvB †_‡K cvIqv hvq bv| GKB m‡½ cÖkg‡bi m¤¢ve¨ e¨q (projected mitigation costs) we‡ePbvi †¶‡Î Rjevqy cwieZ©b‡K Gwo‡q hvIqvi d‡j AwR©Z mvdj¨‡K we‡ePbvq Avbv nqwb|

e· SPM 3 : SuzwK jvN‡ei KvVv‡gvmg~n Ges †m ¸wji mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK gyj¨ m¤ú‡K© aviYv (Box SPM.3: Assumptions in studies on mitigation portfolios and macro-economic costs)

GB cÖwZ‡e`‡b eëüZ (assessed) SzwK n«v‡mi KvVv‡gvmg~n (mitigation portfolios) Ges mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK gyj¨ (macro-economic costs) Dci ‡_‡K bx‡Pi g‡Wj‡K (top-down modelling) wfwË K‡i Kiv n‡q‡Q| AwaKvsk g‡WjB wek¦e¨vcx ¯^íZg g~‡j¨ wbtmiY KvVv‡gv (mitigation portfolios) Ges êwk¦K wbtmiY evwY‡Rï (universal emissions trading) †¶‡Î ¯^”Q evRvi eë ’v (transparent markets), k~b¨ n ÍvšÍi e¨q (no transaction cost) Ges cy‡iv 21 kZvwãe¨vcx wbM©gb n«v‡mi c`‡¶cmg~‡ni (mitigation measures) h_vh_ ev Íevqb-G me Abygv‡bi Dci wfwË K‡i M‡o D‡V‡Q| G †¶‡Î e¨vq ev gyj¨¸‡jv GKwU wbw ©„ó mg‡qi cÖwZwbwaZ¡ Ki‡Q| ‰ewk¦K g‡Wj Abyhvqx hw` we‡kl †Kvb †¶Î (†hgb: f~wg eënvi), wbM©gb n«v‡mi my‡hvM (options) ev M¨vm Gi wn‡me e¨wZ‡i‡K †Kvb ‡Kvb AÂj e¨q e„w× cv‡e| Aek¨ hw` cÖewZ©Z cÖhyw³ eënv‡ii (induced technological learning) AwfÁZv‡K Kve©b Uª¨v· Ges wbM©g‡bi AbygwZ (permits) wbjvg (auctioned) Gi gva¨‡g ivR¯^ Avq Gi m‡½ hy³ Kiv hvq-Zvn‡j †jvqvi †emjvBb (lower baselines) wn‡me Abyhvqx e¨vq Kg‡e| mKj g‡Wj Rjevqy cwieZ©b †iv‡ai gva¨‡g AwR©Z mydjRwbZ DcKvwiZv‡K (climate benefits) Ges mvaviYfv‡e cÖkgb eë ’vi Kvi‡Y cwic~iK mydj (co-benefits of mitigation measures) ev mgZvi welqwU‡K (equity issues) we‡ePbvq Av‡bwb|


7

M. mí Ges ga¨ †gqv‡` cÖkgb (2030 ch©šÍ)

5. Zjv †_‡K Dc‡i (bottom- up) Ges Dci †_‡K bx‡P (top-down) yB ai‡Yi M‡elYvB êwk¦K wMÖbnvDm M¨vm cÖkg‡bi wecyj A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebvi Bw½Z w`‡q‡Q (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY)|

G‡¶‡Î m¤¢ve¨ AwbðqZv‡K (uncertainties) wb‡Pi †Uwe‡j D‡jøwLZ mxgvi (ranges) Øviv wPwýZ Kiv n‡q‡Q, hv †emjvBb mxgv, cÖhyw³ cwieZ©‡bi nvi Ges Ab¨vb¨ d¨v±img~n‡K {hv wfbœ wfbœ cš’v (approach) Øviv wbw`©ó n‡q‡Q} Zz‡j a‡i‡Q| Zvic‡iI we‡k¦i mKj †`‡ki me †m±i I wbM©Z wMÖbnvDm M¨vm m¤ú‡K© Z‡_ï mxgve×Zv AwbðqZvi Rb¥ w`‡q‡Q| Zjv †_‡K Dc‡i (bottom- up) M‡elYvmg~n : • GB wi‡cv‡U© 2030 mvj bvMv` A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv‡K Zjv †_‡K Dc‡i c×wZ‡Z ch©v‡jvPbv K‡i(†`Lyb e· SPM-2), wb‡Pi †Uwej SPM 1 Ges wPÎ SPM 5K-G Dc¯’vwcZ n‡q‡Q| D`vniY: 2000 mv‡ji wbM©gb 43 wMMvUb Kve©b WvB A·vBW Gi mgZ~j¨ (43 GtCO2-eq) n‡e| • M‡elYv †`Lv‡”Q †h, 2030 mvj bvMv` eQ‡i cÖvq 6 wMMvUb Kve©b WvB A·vBW Gi mgZ~j¨ wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb n«v‡mi m¤¢vebv i‡q‡Q, †h my‡hvM ev Íevq‡bi †¶‡Î

wbU †bwZevPK e¨q n«vm cv‡e15(net negative costs)| GB Z_¨ ev Íevq‡bi j¶¨ AR©‡bi †¶‡Î evavmg~n ~i Kivi ¸iæZ¡ Zz‡j a‡i|

• ‡Kvb GKK †m±i ev cÖhyw³ cÖkg‡bi mvgwMÖK P¨v‡jÄ †gvKv‡ejv Ki‡Z cvi‡e bv| G Kv‡R ch©v‡jvPbvK…Z mKj †m±‡ii mw¤§wjZ f~wgKvi cÖ‡qvRb (wPÎ SPM 6 †`Lyb)| Gme †m±‡ii Rb¨ cÖavb cÖavb wbM©gb n«vm cÖhyw³ I c×wZ (practices) †Uwej SPM:3 G †`Lvb n‡q‡Q|

Dci †_‡K bx‡P (top-down) M‡elYvmg~n : • GB c×wZ‡Z 2030 mvj ch©šÍ wnmveK…Z (calculated) wbM©gb n«v‡mi cwigvY QK bs SPM:2Ges wPÎ SPM:5L G †`Lvb n‡q‡Q| wek¦e¨vcx A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv Zjv †_‡K Dc‡i Ges Dci †_‡K bx‡P Dfq c×wZ‡ZB mgvb, hwÌ wewfbœ †m±‡ii †¶‡Î h‡_ó cv_©K¨ i‡q‡Q|

• QK bs SPM: 2G AbygvbK…Z djvdj¸‡jv, w¯’wZKiY AbyK‡íi (stabilization scenarios) wfwË‡Z †`Lvb n‡q‡Q (D`vniY: evqygÐ‡j wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi cwigvY `xN©‡gqv‡` AcwiewZ©Z ivLvi cÖ‡Pó|

†Uwej SPM 1: 2030 mvj bvMv` êwk¦K A_©bxwZ‡Z wbM©gb nvªm m¤¢vebv Zjv †_‡K Dc‡i (bottom- up) M‡elYvmg~n †_‡K Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q |

Kve©‡bi g~j¨ (BDGm Wjvi/Ub

Kve©b WvB A·vBW-mgZ~j¨)

A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv (eQ‡i wMMvUb Kve©b WvB

A·vBW-mgZ~j¨)

SRES A1 B AbyK‡íi m‡½ mswkøó wbM©gb n«vm

(eQ‡i 68 wMMvUb Kve©b WvB A·vBW mgZ~j¨) (%)

SRES B2 AbyK‡íi m‡½ mswkøó wbM©gb n«vm

(eQ‡i 49 wMMvUb Kve©b WvB A·vBW -mgZ~j¨) (%)

0 5-7 7-10 10-14 20 9-17 14-25 19-35 50 13-26 20-38 27-52 100 16-31 23-46 31-63

e· SPM 4: g‡Wwjs cÖewZ©Z cÖhyw³MZ cwieZ©b (Box SPM.4: Modelling induced technological change)

m¤úwK©Z M‡elYvmg~n GK_v Bw½Z K‡i †h wewa-weavb Ges h‡_v‡cvhy³ eë¯’v cÖhyw³MZ cwieZ©‡bi m~Pbv Ki‡Z cv‡i| cÖewZ©Z cÖhyw³MZ cwieZ©b (induced technological change) †_‡K w¯’wZ M‡elYv (stabilisation studies) wfwËK cÖv‡qvwMK †KŠkj (applying approaches) Gi †¶‡Î D‡jøL‡hvM¨ AMÖMwZ mvwaZ n‡q‡Q, hwÌ aviYvMZ welq¸‡jv GKBiKg i‡q‡Q| GB g‡W‡j Gme †KŠkj‡K mgwš^Z (adopt) Kiv n‡q‡Q, GKwU wbw`©ó w¯’wZkxj ch©v‡qi Rb¨(stabilization level) AbywgZ e¨q n«vm †c‡q‡Q; Avi wbgœ w ’wZkxj ch©v‡qi †¶‡Î wbM©gb e„w× cv‡e|


8

†Uwej SPM 2: 2030 mvj bvMv` êwk¦K A_©bxwZ‡Z cÖkgb m¤¢vebv Dci †_‡K bx‡P (top-down) M‡elYvmg~n †_‡K Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q (estimated)

Kve©‡bi g~j¨ (BDGm Wjvi/Ub

Kve©b WvB A·vBW-mgZ~j¨)

A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv (eQ‡i wMMvUb Kve©b WvB

A·vBW-mgZ~j¨)

SRES A1 B AbyK‡íi m‡½ mswkøó wbM©gb n«vm

( eQ‡i 68 wMMvUb Kve©b WvB A·vBW mgZ~j¨) (%)

SRES B2 AbyK‡íi m‡½ mswkøó wbM©gb n«vm

(eQ‡i 49 wMMvUb Kve©b WvB A·vBW -mgZ~j¨) (%)

20 9-18 13-27 18-37 50 14-23 21-34 29-47 100 17-26 25-38 35-53

13 e¨w³MZ e¨q (private costs) Ges wWmKvD›U †iU (discount rates) e¨w³MZ †µZv (private consumers) I ‡Kv¤úvwbi ev¯ÍeZv‡K Zz‡j a‡i: we¯ÍvwiZ Rvbvi Rb¨ wUKv †`Lyb| 14. mvgvwRK e¨q (social costs) Ges wWmKvD›U †iU (discount rates) mvgvwRK cÖwi‡cÖw¶Z‡K cÖwZdwjZ K‡i| mvgvwRK wWmKvD›U †iU (social discount rates) e¨w³MZ wewb‡qvMKvix‡ì (private investors) Øviv eëüZ nv‡ii Zzjbvq Kg| 15 SAR Ges TAR Gi g‡ZB GB wi‡cv‡U© †mB cš’v¸wj‡K (options) †bU †b‡MwUf K÷ (net negative costs) mn wPwýZ (define) Kiv n‡q‡Q, Aek¨ G †¶‡Î m¤¢vebvmg~n‡K (opportunities) ev` †Ìqv nqwb| GB me cš’v¸wj n‡PQ †mB¸wj (†hgb R¡vjvwb e¨q n«vm Ges ¯’vbxq/AvÂwjK wbM©gb n«vm ev `~lY) hv‡ì e¨q mgv‡Ri cÖwZ mgvb ev †ewk Ges G †¶‡Î Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi Kvi‡Y m¤¢ve¨ ¶wZ †_‡K euvPvi myweav¸wj‡K we‡ePbvq ivLv nqwb| (†`Lyb e· SPM.1).

wPÎ SPM 5K: 2030 bvMv` wek¦e¨vcx wbtmiY n«v‡mi A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv -Zjv †_‡K Dci (bottom-up) M‡elYvi gva¨‡g AbygvbK…Z (WvUv QK SPM:1 †_‡K †bIqv n‡q‡Q)

wPÎ SPM 5L: 2030 bvMv` wek¦e¨vcx wbtmiY n«v‡mi A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv-ÔDci †_‡K bx‡PÕ (top-down) M‡elYvi gva¨‡g AbygvbK…Z (WvUv QK SPM:2 †_‡K †bIqv n‡q‡Q)


9

†Uwej SPM 3 : wewfbœ †m±‡ii cÖavb cÖavb wbM©gb n«vm cÖhyw³mg~n Ges cÖ‡qvM| †m±i Ges cÖhyw³¸wj‡K †Kvb wbw ©ó wbqg QvovB ch©vqµ‡g ivLv n‡q‡Q| †h me cÖhyw³ GKvwaK †m±‡ii m‡½ hy³ (cross-cutting); †hgb: Rxebaviv cwieZ©b (lifestyle changes), †m¸wj‡K GB ZvwjKvq ivLv nqwb (Aek¨ G¸wj‡K GB cÖwZ‡e`‡bi c¨vivMÖvd 7 G Av‡jvPbv Kiv n‡q‡Q)

†m±i eZ©gv‡b evwYwR¨Kfv‡e cÖPwjZ wewfbœ †m±‡ii cÖavb cÖavb wbM©gb n«vm cÖhyw³ Ges cÖ‡qvMmg~n

2030 mvj bvMv` wewfbœ †m±‡i †hme cÖavb cÖavb wbM©gb n«vm cÖhyw³ Ges cÖ‡qvMmg~n evwYwR¨Kfv‡e Pvjy

n‡e e‡j Abygvb Kiv n‡”Q kw³

mieivn

[4.3,

4.4]

mieivn I weZiY `¶Zvi Dbœqb; Kqjv †_‡K M¨vmwfwËK R¡vjvwb‡Z ¯’vbvšÍi: AvbweK kw³; bevqb‡hvM¨ Zvc I kw³ (cvwbkw³,†mŠikw³,evqykw³,wRI_vigvj Ges ev‡qvGbvwR©); mgwš^Z Zvc I kw³: Kve©b avib I mÂq (Carbon Capture and Storage-CCS), (†hgb: cÖvK…wZK M¨vm †_‡K weqy³ Kve©b WvB A·vBW mÂq)

Kve©b wbM©gb eÜ I mÂq myweavmn M¨vm, ev‡qvgvm Ges KqjvRvZ we`y¨r Drcv`b myweav: DbœZ AvbweK kw³: DbœZ bevqb‡hvM¨ kw³ (†Rvqvixq kw³ I evqykw³ mn); NYxf~Z †mŠikw³ (concentrating solar) Ges †mŠi c¨v‡bj (solar PV)

cwienY

[5.4]

AviI R¡vjvwb mvkªqx hvbevnb; nvBweªW Mvwo (hybrid vehicles); `~lYg~³ wW‡Rj Mvwo; ˆReR¡vjvwb (biofuels); moK cwienY eë¯’v †_‡K †ij eë ’vq D‡ËviY Ges MY-cwienY eë¯’v (public transport systems); A-hvwš¿K (non-motorised) cwienY (mvB‡Kj/cv‡q nvUv); f~wg-eënvi Ges cwienY cwiKíbv|

wØZxq cÖR‡b¥i ‰Re R¡vjvwb; D”PZi `¶Zv m¤úbœ D‡ovRvnvR; AviI kw³kvjx Ges wbf©i‡hvM¨ (efficiency) e¨vUvwi mn AvaywbK (advanced) we`y¨r PvwjZ (electri) Ges nvBweªW (hybrid vehicles) hvbevnb

wbg©vY

[6.5]

`¶ Av‡jvK eë¯’v Ges †mŠikw³ eënvi (daylighting); AviI `¶ ê`y¨wZK eë¯’v Ges wnwUs (heating) I Kzwjs (cooling) miÄvg (devices); DbœZgv‡bi ivbœvi Pzjv (cook stoves); DbœZ AvšÍiY (insulation); wnwUs Ges Kzwjq Gi Rb¨ Awµq (passive) I mwµq (active) ‡mŠi wWRvBb (solar design); †iwd«Rv‡ik‡bi Rb¨ weKí Zi‡ji (fluids) eënvi; †d¬vwibRvZ (fluorinated) M¨vmmg~n c~biƒ×vi (recovery) Ges we‡Ava‡bi (recycle) eë ’v|

wdWe¨vK (feedback) `v‡b I wbqš¿‡Y m¶g Ggb ¯^qswµq wgUvi (intelligent meters) cÖeZ©‡bi g‡Zv cÖhyw³mn evwYwR¨K feb ¸‡jvi mgwš^Z b·v cÖYqb; feb¸wj‡Z †mŠi c¨v‡bj (solar PV) mshy³ Kiv|

wkí

[7.5]

cÖv‡šÍ AviI Kg we`y¨r eënvi K‡i (efficient end-use) Ggb ê`y¨wZK miÄv‡gi eënvi; Zvc I kw³ c~biæ×vi (heat and power recovery); we‡kvab (recycling) I cwieZ©b (substitution); CO2

bq (non- CO2gas) Ggb M¨vmmg~‡ni wbM©gb n«vm; mywbw`©ó cÖwµqvMZ (process-specific) cÖhyw³mg~‡ni e¨vcK cÖ`k©bx (wide array)|

AMÖmi R¡vjvwb `¶Zv ; wm‡g›U, G¨‡gvwbqv I Avqib ‰Zwi‡Z wbM©Z Kve©b avib I mÂq (Carbon Capture and Storage-CCS); G¨jywgwbqvg ˆZwi‡Z w¯’i we`y¨r (inert electrodes) eënvi|

K„wl

[8.4]

f~wgR Kve©b mÂq e„w×i Rb¨ Avevw` I cïPviY(grazing land) f~wgi eë¯’vcbvi Dbœqb; Pv‡li AvIZvq Avmv wcU Rwg (cultivated peaty) I ¶wqòz Rwg (degraded lands) c~biæ×vi; wg‡_b (CH4) M¨v‡mi wbM©gb Kgv‡Z avb Pv‡li †KŠkj (cultivation techniques), Mevw` cï cvjb, mvi (manure) eë ’vcbvi Dbœqb; bvB‡Uªv‡R‡bi wbtmiY Kgv‡Z bvB‡Uªv‡RbNwUZ mvi eënvi wewa Dbœqb; Rxevk¥ R¡vjvwbi eënvi cvëv‡Z Rb¨ km¨ R¡vjvwbi (dedicated energy crops) Dci wbf©iZv e„w×; R¡vjvwb `¶Zv e„w×

k‡mï djb e„w× (Improvements of crops yields)

eb/

ebR

[9.4]

ebvqb; cybtebvqb; eb eë¯’vcbv; KvVRvZ `ª‡eï eë ’vcbv (harvested wood product management); Rxevk¥ R¡vjvwbi eënvi cvëv‡Z ˆRekw³i (bioenergy) eënvi e„w×i Rb¨ ebR m¤ú‡ì eënvi|

ev‡qvgv‡mi (biomass) Drcv`bkxjZv e„w× I Kve©b m‡¼vP‡bi (carbon sequestration) Rb¨ e„‡¶i cÖRvwZ Dbœqb| DbœZ wi‡gvU †mbwms cÖhyw³i (remote sensing technologies) eënv‡ii gva¨‡g e„‡¶i we‡kølY (analysis of vegetation)/f~wg Kve©b m‡¼vPb (soil carbon sequestration) m¤¢vebv wba©viY Ges f~wg eënv‡ii cwieZ©b g¨vwcs (mapping land use change)

eR©¨

[10.4]

f~wg fiv‡Ui (Landfill) gva¨g wbM©Z wg‡_b M¨vm cybiæ×vi (recovery); eR©¨ †cvov‡bvi (waste incineration) m‡½ R¡vjvwb cybiƒ×vi (energy recovery); ˆRe e‡R©¨ myk„•Lj (composting) eë¯’vcbv; eR©¨ cvwb we‡kva‡bi (waste water treatment) eë¯’v wbqš¿Y; we‡kvab (recycling) I eR©¨ (waste) n«vm|

Aw·‡R‡bi m‡½ wg‡_‡bi mswgkªY (oxidation) Kvw•LZ cwigv‡Y NUv‡bvi Rb¨ ˆRe Av”Qv`b (biocovers) Ges ˆRewe‡kvab (biofilters) eënvi| (Biocovers and biofilters to optimize CH4 oxidation)


10

wPÎ SPM6: wewfbœ AÂ‡ji Rb¨ ‰ewk¦K cÖkg‡bi (global mitigation) Rb¨ bxP †_‡K Dc‡i (bottom-up) M‡elYvi gva¨‡g 2030 mvj bvMv` Kve©‡bi `vg (carbon price) Gi Kvh©KvwiZvi (function) wfwË‡Z wewfbœ †m±‡ii AbywgZ A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv‡K (economic potential) mswkøó †emjvBb (respective baselines) Abygv‡bi m‡½ Zzjbv Kiv n‡q‡Q| G wP‡Îi DrcwËMZ Z‡_ï c~Y© e¨vL¨v cvIqv hv‡e 11.3 G |

†bvU: 1. cÖwZwU †m‡±‡ii Rb¨ wek¦e¨vcx A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebvi †h mxgv (ranges) Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q †m ¸‡jv Djø¤^ `vM (vertical lines) w`‡q †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q | GB mxgv cÖvwšÍK wbM©g‡bi (end-use allocations of emissions) wfwË‡Z wba©vwiZ n‡q‡Q, Gi A_© GB †h we`y¨r Lv‡Zi wbM©gb wn‡me Kiv n‡q‡Q Zvi cÖvwšÍK (end-use) ev eënvwiK †¶‡Îi wbM©gb †_‡K, we y¨r Drcv`b Ki‡Z ‡h wbM©gb (emissions) n‡q‡Q Zvi wfwË‡Z bq| 2. GB M‡elYv¸wji Rb¨ cÖvß Z_¨, we‡kl K‡i Kve©‡bi D”P `vg (high carbon price levels) m¤¢vebv Abygv‡b evavi m„wó K‡i‡Q| 3. wewfbœ †¶‡Îi Rb¨ wewfbœ †emjvBb eënvi Kiv nq, †hgb wk‡íi R‡b¨ SRES B2; R¡vjvwb mieivn Ges cwien‡b WEO 2004 †emjvBb; wbg©vY †¶‡Îi Rb¨ SRES B2 Ges A1B Gi gaëZ©x †emjvBb; SRES A1B eënvi K‡i e‡R©ï Rb¨ we‡kl †emjvBb ˆZwi Kiv n‡q‡Q; K…wl I ebR wk‡íi Rb¨ †h †mjvBb eënvi Kiv n‡q‡Q Zv g~jZ B2 wfwËK| 4. AvšÍR©vwZK wegvb cwienb AšÍf©z³ _vKvq ïaygvÎ cwien‡bi Rb¨ ‰ewk¦K †hvMdj‡K †`Lvb n‡q‡Q | 5. †h welq¸wj ev` †Ìqv n‡q‡Q: wbg©vY I cwienb †¶‡Îi Kve©b WvB A·vBW NwUZ bq(non-CO2)Ggb wbM©gb, e¯‘MZ `¶Zv e„w×i cš’v¸wji Askwe‡kl, Zvc Drcv`b Ges we`y¨r Drcv`‡bi †¶‡Î Drcvw`Z Zvc (cogeneration) , fvix hvbevnb, †bŠPjvPj Ges e„n`vqZ‡bi hvÎxevnx hvbevnb, AZ¨vwaK e¨vqeûj AeKvVv‡gv wbg©vY, eR©¨ cvwb we‡kab, Kqjv Lwb I M¨vm cvBc jvBb †_‡K wbM©gb n«vm, cwienb I R¡vjvwb †¶‡Î Drcbœ †d¬vwibRvZ (fluorinated gases) M¨vm BZ¨vw`| GB wbM©gb wP‡Î A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebv‡K (economic potential) 10-15% ch©šÍKg (underestimation) aiv n‡q‡Q| 6. 2030 mvj bvMv` eûgyLx M¨vm cÖkg‡bi (for multi-gas mitigation) Rb¨ [hv Kve©b WvBA·vB‡Wi cwigvY 445 †_‡K 710 wcwcGg (ppm) Gi g‡a¨ mxgve× (stabilization) ivLvi m‡½ hy³] mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK e¨q (macro-economic costs) Gi Kvi‡Y êwk¦K wRwWwc 3% Gi †ewk n«vm cv‡e bv e‡j Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q, hv †emjvB‡bi Zzjbvq mvgvb¨ †ewk (†`Lyb †Uwej SPM. 4)| Aek¨ êwk¦K M‡oi Zzjbvq AvÂwjK e¨‡q D‡jøL‡hvM¨ cwigv‡Y cwieZ©b NU‡Z cv‡i (D”P ¯^xKvh©, gvSvwi cÖgvY)| (G mKj djvd‡ji Rb¨ Abym„Z c×wZ Ges Abygv‡bi Rb¨ e· SPM. 3 †`Lyb)

• †ewkifvM M‡elYv GB Dcmsnv‡i †cŠu‡Q‡Q †h, w ’wZkxj j¶¨ AR©‡bi Rb¨ M„nxZ c`‡¶c e„w×i m‡½ m‡½ †emjvBb wRwWwcÕi Zzjbvq wRwWwc µgk Kg‡Z _vK‡e (reduction of GDP relative to the GDP baseline increases with the stringency of the stabilization target)|

• we`¨gvb Ki KvVv‡gv (existing tax system) Ges ivR¯^ e¨‡qi ai‡bi Dci wfwË K‡i cwiPvwjZ g‡Wj M‡elYv¸wji mvnv‡h¨ †`Lv wM‡q‡Q, ¯í Kve©b cÖhyw³ (lowcarbon technologies) cÖPj‡bi Rb¨ ev eZ©gvb Ki KvVv‡gvi ms¯‹v‡ii Rb¨ m¤¢ve¨ e¨q- Kve©b U¨v· (carbon taxes) †_‡K


11

cÖvß ivR¯ ev wbM©g‡bi myweav msµvšÍcviwgU (auctioned permits) wewµi gva¨‡g AvnwiZ A‡_©i Zzjbvq †ek Kg n‡e| • †ek wKQy M‡elYvq Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q †h Rjevqy cwieZ©b msµvšÍ bxwZgvjvi cÖfv‡e cÖhyw³MZ cwieZ©b Z¡ivwš^Z n‡e Ges cÖhyw³i e¨q n«vm cv‡e| wKš‘Gi R‡b¨ ïiæ‡Z eo ai‡bi wewb‡qvM Ki‡jB †Kej cÖhyw³i `vg Kgv‡bvi j¶¨ AwR©Z n‡Z cv‡i (†`Lyb e· SPM.4)| • †ewkifvM g‡Wj wRwWwc n«v‡mi K_v ej‡jI wKQy msL¨K g‡Wj wRwWwci e„w× †`wL‡q‡Q| G me g‡W‡j Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q †h, †emjvBb¸wji gvb m‡e©v”P mwVK bq (non-optimal) Ges cÖkgb msµvšÍbxwZgvjvmgyn (mitigation policies) evRvi eë ’vi `¶Zv (market efficiencies) e„w× Ki‡e| A_ev Giv Abygvb K‡i‡Q †h, wbM©gb n«vm

msµvšÍbxwZgvjvmgy‡ni Kvi‡Y cÖhyw³MZ cwieZ©b AviI Z¡ivwš^Z n‡e| evRvi eë¯’vi `¶Zv e„w×i g‡a¨ Ae¨üZ m¤ú‡ì(unemployed resources)eënvi Ges gv_vfvix/Kg jvfRbK (distortionary) Ki ev mvewmwWI AšÍf©~³|

• gvwë-M¨vm ‡KŠkj (multi-gas approach) Ges Kve©b n«vm/gy‡Q †djvi (carbon sink) c×Zxmg~n ïaygvÎ Kve©b WvB A·vBW n«v‡mi Zzjbvq h‡_ó cwigv‡Y e¨q mvkªqx| • AvÂwjK e¨q AbywgZ w¯’wZkxjZvi ch©vq (stabilization level) Ges †emjvBb „k¨K‡íi (baseline scenario) Dci †ewk gvÎvq wbf©ikxj| G †¶‡Î ivóªxq eë ’vcbvi(allocation regime) welqwUI mgvb ¸iæZ¡c~Y©, hwÌ †ewkifvM †`‡ki †¶‡Î cwigvYMZ gvÎvi (extent) †P‡q w¯’wZkxjZvi ch©vq †ewk ¸iæZ¡c~Y©|

SPM 4: wMÖbnvDm M¨vmmg~‡ni wbM©gb `xN© †gqv‡` w ’wZkxjb) c) ch©v‡q ivLvi j‡¶¨ 2030a mvj bvMv` ¯í-e¨q wfwËK (least-cost trajectories) ‰ewk¦K mvgwóK-A_©‰bwZK e¨q (global macro-economic costs)|

w¯’wZkxjZvi ch©vq (Stabilization levels) (ppm Kve©b WvBA·vBW

mgZ~j¨)

wRwWwc n«v‡mi Mo ev ga¨K gvb d

(Median GDP reduction) (%)

wRwWwc n«v‡mi mxgv (Range of GDP reductiond), e)

(%)

Mo evwl©K wRwWwc cÖe„w× n«v‡mi nvi (Reduction of average annual GDP

growth ratesd), f) (kZvskwfwËK c‡q›U) (percentage points)

590-710 0.2 -0.6 -1.2 <0.06 535-590 0.6 0.2-2.5 <0.1

445-535 g) not available <3 <0.12 †bvU: a) †ewkifvM g‡W‡j †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q †h 2030 mv‡ji c‡i wMÖbnvDm M¨vm¸wj‡K GKwU wbw`©ó w¯’wZkxj ch©v‡q (stabilization level) mxgve× K‡i

ivLvi †¶‡Î wRwWwc n«vm mg‡qi m‡½ m‡½ e„w× cv‡e| GKB m‡½ `xN©‡gqvw` e¨q AviI †ewk AwbwðZ| (wPÎ: 3.25) b) wewfbœ †emjvBb eënviKvix M‡elYvmg~‡ni djvd‡ji wfwË‡Z| c) wewfbœ M‡elYvq w¯’wZkxj ch©vq AR©‡bi mgq wfbœ wfbœ aivq Gme M‡elYvi djvd‡j cv_©K¨ i‡q‡Q| mvaviYfv‡e 2100 mvj bvMv` ev Zvi c‡i

w ’wZkxj ch©vq AwR©Z n‡e e‡j aiv n‡q‡Q| d) ‰ewk¦K wRwWwc wfwËK evRvi wewbgq nvi (market exchange rates) | e) we‡kølYK…Z WvUvmg~‡ni ga¨K (median) Ges 10g I 90Zg kZvsk nv‡ii mxgv (percentile range)| f) Mo evwl©K wRwWwc cÖe„w× n«v‡mi nvi 2030 mvj ch©šÍMo wRwWwc n«v‡mi Dci wfwË K‡i wn‡m‡e Kiv n‡q‡Q- hv 2030 mvj bvMv` wRwWwc n«v‡mi

Bw½Z (indicated) K‡i| g) GB mKj M‡elYv wbæ †emjvBb (low baselines) eënvi K‡i‡Q Ges wRwWwcÕi Dci cÖfve Zzjbvg~jKfv‡e Kg n‡e e‡j wi‡cvU© w`‡q‡Q|

7. RxebhvÎvi ai‡Y Ges AvPi‡Y cwieZ©b mvwaZ n‡j Zv mKj †m±‡iB wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb n«v‡m f~wgKv ivL‡e| eë¯’vcbvMZ Af¨vmI (management practices) G †¶‡Î BwZevPK f~wgKv ivL‡Z cv‡i (D”P ¯^xKvh©, ga¨g cÖgvwbZ)| • RxebhvÎvi ai‡Y cwieZ©b (lifestyle changes) wMÖbnvDm M¨vm cÖkg‡b f~wgKv ivL‡Z cv‡i| m¤ú` msi¶‡Yi j‡¶¨ RxebhvÎv I †fv‡Mi eZ©gvb ai‡Y cwieZ©b Avm‡j Zv ¯í-Kve©b wfwËK A_©bxwZ‡K (low-carbon economy) mnvqZv Ki‡e Ges hv GKB m‡½ mgZv I w ’wZkxjZvi Rb¥ †`‡e| • evRvi eë ’v‡K kw³ eënv‡i `¶ (energy efficiency) Kivi †¶‡Î we`¨gvb evavmg~n ~i Ki‡Z wk¶v Ges cÖwk¶Y

Kg©m~wP mnvqK f~wgKv cvjb Ki‡Z cv‡i, we‡kl K‡i Ab¨vb¨ eë ’vi m‡½ GKwÎZ fv‡e wµqv Ki‡j (†Uwej 6.6)| • gvwjKvbvMZ AvPi‡Y cwieZ©b (in occupant behaviour), ms¯‹…wZK aib I †µZvi cQ‡›` (consumer choice) cwieZ©b NU‡j Ges cÖhyw³i eënv‡ii d‡j evmfe‡b eëüZ kw³i †¶‡Î (energy use in buildings) Kve©b WvBA·vB‡Wi wbM©gb h‡_ó cwigv‡Y n«vm Kiv m¤¢e| • hvbevn‡bi Pvwn`vwfwËK eë¯’vcbv (Transport Demand Management), hvi m‡½ bMi cwiKíbv hy³ i‡q‡Q (hv hvbenb eënv‡i cÖ‡hvRb n«vm Ki‡Z cv‡i&) Ges Z_¨ mieivn I wk¶vi †KŠk‡j cwieZ©b (provision of information and educational techniques) (hv Mvwoi eënvi n«vm Ges `¶


12

Mvwo Pvjbv c×wZi eënvi e„w×‡Z mnvqK n‡Z cv‡i) wMÖbnvDm M¨vm mg~‡ni wbM©gb n«v‡m mnvqZv Ki‡Z cv‡i| • wkí-Kvi_vbvi †¶‡Î Kgx© cÖwk¶Y,cyi¯‹vi cÖ`v‡bi eë ’v, wbqwgZ ch©v‡jvPbv (regular feedback), cÖPwjZ Af¨v‡mi (existing practices) WKz‡g›Uk‡bi g‡Zv eë¯’vcbv †KŠkj eënvi wkí †¶‡Î we`¨gvb evav mg~n‡K ~i Ki‡Z, kw³i eënvi n«v‡m Ges wMÖbnvDm M¨vmmg~‡ni wbM©gb n«v‡m mnvqZv Ki‡e| 8. wewfbœ M‡elYv wfbœ wfbœ aviv (different methodologies) AbymiY Ki‡jI mKj we‡køl‡Y †`Lv wM‡q‡Q †h we‡k¦i AÂjmg~‡ni fwel¨r ¯v¯’¨ myweavi †¶‡Î wMÖbnvDm M¨vm cÖkg‡b M…nxZ eë¯’vi mnvqK mydj (co-benefits) wn‡m‡e evqy ~lY D‡jøL‡hvM¨ cwigv‡Y n«vm cv‡e Ges cÖkgbRwbZ e¨‡qi GKwU eo As‡ki cwic~iK wn‡m‡e KvR Ki‡e (may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs) (D”P ¯^xKvh©, gvSvwi cÖgvY)|

• ¯^v¯’¨ †¶‡Î cÖvß mydj QvovI R¡vjvwb wbivcËv (energy security) I K…wl Drcv`b e„w× Ges cÖvK…wZK Rxe‰ewP‡Îi (natural ecosystems) Dci Pvc n«vm, Uª‡cv‡ùwiK I‡Rvb M¨v‡mi cwigvY (tropospheric ozone concentrations) n«vm cÖf„wZ cÖkgb e¨q n«vm Kiv‡e| • evqy ~lY n«vm (air pollution abatement) Ges Rjevhy cwieZ©‡bi Rb¨ `vqx wMÖb nvDm M¨vm wbM©gb n«v‡mi Rb¨ Avjv`v Avjv`v Kg©‡KŠkj bv K‡i mgwš^Z Kg©‡KŠkj cÖYqb Ki‡j Zv e¨‡qi cwigvY ‡ek A‡bKUv n«vm Ki‡e|

9. Kve©b wbtmi‡Yi (carbon leakage) cwigvY GL‡bv AwbwðZ _vK‡jI TAR cieZx© mg‡qi mKj M‡elYv GUv wbwðZ K‡i‡Q †h, ‰ewk¦K wbM©gb (global emissions) I êwk¦K A_©bxwZ‡Z G‡b· 1 f~³ †`k¸wji Kvh©µg G †¶Î‡K cÖfvweZ Ki‡Q (D”P ¯^xKvh©, ga¨g cÖgvY)| • Rxevk¥ R¡vjvwb ißvwbKvix †`k¸wj ( G‡b· 1 f~³ Ges G‡b· 1 f~³ bq Ggb mKj †`k) m¤¢eZ Avk¼v Ki‡Q †h (may expect), cÖkgb msµvšÍbxwZgvjvi (mitigation policies) Kvi‡Y (TAR16 G D‡jøLK…Z) Zv‡ì c‡Yï Pvwn`v I `vg n«vm †c‡Z cv‡i Ges wRwWwcÕi cÖe„w× Kg‡Z cv‡i| GB Avk¼vi gvÎv17 m¤ú~Y©fv‡e wbf©i Ki‡Q G msµvšÍM„nxZ bxwZgvjv Ges R¡vjvwb †Z‡ji evRv‡ii Ae¯’vi Dci| • Kve©b wjK m¤úwK©Z Rwic (assessment of carbon leakage) GL‡bv RwUj AwbðqZvi ch©v‡q i‡q‡Q18| †ewkifvM mvgÄm¨kxj (equilibrium) g‡Wjmg~n TAR Gi Dcmsnv‡i eYx©Z A_©bxwZwfwËK (economy-wide) wK‡qv‡Uv Kg©cwiKíbv (Kyoto action) Gi ch©vq Abyhvhx 5-20 kZvsk wbM©gb n«vm‡K mg_©b K‡i‡Q| Aek¨ cÖwZ‡hvMx ¯^í-wbM©gb m¶g cÖhyw³ (competitive low-emissions technologies) hw` e¨vcKfv‡e Qwo‡q c‡o Z‡e G nvi K‡g ‡h‡Z cv‡i|

10. Dbœqbkxj †`kmg~‡ni kw³ Drcv`b AeKvVv‡gv‡Z (energy infrastructure) bZzb wewb‡qvM, wk‡ívbœZ †`‡k kw³ Drcv`bKvix AeKvVv‡gvi gvbDbœqb (upgradation) Ges kw³ wbivcËv cÖ`vbKvix bxwZgvjv A‡bK †¶‡Î wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi wbM©gb19 n«v‡mi j¶¨ AR©‡b A‡bK †¶‡Î †emjvBb wP‡Îi (baseline scenarios) Zzjbvq †ekx my‡hvM m„wó Ki‡Z cv‡i| hwÌ Ab¨vb¨ Abymvw½K myweav¸‡jv GK GKwU †`‡ki Rb¨ wfbœ wfbœ n‡Z cv‡i, wKš‘ evqy ~lY ‡iva, evwYR¨ NvUwZ n«vm, MÖvgvÂ‡j AvaywbK kw³ eënv‡ii cÖmvi Ges Kg©ms¯’v‡bi g‡Zv welq¸wj Aek¨B AšÍf~©³ _vK‡e (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY)|

• Ghver MÖnxZ wm×všÍAbyhvqx kw³ Drcv`b AeKvVv‡gv‡Z eZ©gvb mgq †_‡K 2030mv‡ji g‡a¨ 20 wUªwjqb20 BDGm Wjv‡iiI †ewk wewb‡qvM n‡e e‡j AvkvKiv n‡”Q, (kw³ Drcv`bKvix ’vcbv¸‡jvi `xN© RxebKvj Ges Ab¨vb¨ AeKvVv‡gvq `xN© ’vqx g~jab wewb‡qvM‡K we‡ePbvq Avb‡j) hv wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©g‡b `xN© †gqvw` cÖfve †dj‡e| G me cÖhyw³i †¶‡Î cÖviw¤¢K wewb‡qvM‡K (early investments) Av‡iv AvKl©Yxq Kiv n‡jI ¯í Kve©b wbM©gb cÖhyw³i (low-carbon technologies) e¨vcK cÖmviY n‡Z m¤¢eZ Av‡iv A‡bK `kK †j‡M hv‡e| cÖv_wgKfv‡e aviY Kiv nq †h, kw³ m¤úwK©Z êwk¦K Kve©b WvB A·vBW wbM©gb‡K 2030 mvj bvMv` 2005 mv‡ji ch©v‡q wdwi‡q Avb‡Z wewb‡qv‡Mi ai‡b e¨vcK cwieZ©b Avb‡Z n‡e, hwÌ GRb¨ gvÎ 5%-10% AwZwi³ wbU wewb‡qvM cÖ‡qvRb n‡e| • kw³i Pvwn`v †gUv‡bvi Rb¨ †hvMvb e„w× cwie‡Z© cÖv‡šÍkw³ eënv‡ii `¶Zv (end-use energy efficiency) e„w×i Rb¨ wewb‡qvM me mg‡qB †ekx e¨q mvkªqx| kw³ wbivcËv (energy security), ’vbxq I AvÂwjK evhy ~lY ‡iva Ges Kg©ms ’v‡bi †¶‡Î kw³ eënv‡i `¶Zv e„w×i BwZevPK cÖfve i‡q‡Q| • mvaviYfv‡e kw³ wbivcËv (energy security), Kg©ms¯’vb Ges evqyi gvb (air quality) Gi Dci bevqY‡qvM¨ kw³i GKwU BwZevPK cÖfve i‡q‡Q| 2005 mv‡j bevqY‡qvM¨ we y¨r kw³ (renewable electricity) †gvU kw³ miev‡ni gvÎ 18 kZvs‡ki †hvMvb w`‡q‡Q| wKš‘ 2030 mvj bvMv` bevqY‡qvM¨ we y¨r kw³ ‡gvU we y¨r mienv‡ii 30-35 kZvsk mieivn Ki‡e| we‡kl K‡i D³ mgq cÖwZ Ub Kve©‡bi `vg 50 Wjvi (50 US$/tCO2-eq) aiv n‡j Ab¨vb¨ Ab¨vb¨ weKí cÖhyw³i Zzjbvq bevqY‡qvM¨ we y¨r kw³ AwaK e¨q mvkªqx n‡e| • Rxevk¥ R¡vjvwbi evRvi g~j¨ hZ e„w× cv‡e ¯í Kve©b wbM©g‡b m¶g weKí cÖhyw³¸‡jv Z‡Zv cÖwZ‡hvwMZvg~jK n‡e, hwÌ `ªæZ cwieZ©bkxj gyj¨ (price volatility) wewb‡qvMKvix‡ì Rb¨ Drmvne¨vÄK (disincentive for investors) n‡e bv| Ab¨ w`‡K cÖPwjZ †Zj m¤ú‡ì D”P g~‡jï Kvi‡Y D”PKve©bRvZ (high carbon) Ab¨b¨ weKí †hgb- A‡qj m¨vÛ (oil sands), A‡qj †kj (oil shales), fvix


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‰Zj (heavy oils) Ges Kqjv I M¨vm †_‡K cÖ ‘ZK…Z wmb‡_wUK R¡vjvwb (synthetic fuels) weKí eëüZ n‡Z cv‡i- hv wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb‡K Av‡iv e„w× Ki‡e, hw` bv Drcv`b ¯’vcbv¸‡jv‡K Kve©b wbM©g‡b cÖwZeÜK I Kve©b mÂq (Carbon Capture and Storage -CCS) cÖhyw³ Øviv cÖ ‘Z Kiv bv nq| • Ab¨vb¨ kw³ ev we y¨r mieivn cš’v¸‡jvi g‡a¨ 2005 mv‡j cvigvYweK kw³ (nuclear power) kZKiv 16 fvM we ~¨r mievivn K‡i‡Q | cÖwZ Ub Kve©‡bi evRvi gyj¨ 50 BDGm Wjvi (50 US$/tCO2-eq) n‡j 2030 mvj bvMv` cvigvYweK LvZ †_‡K †gvU we y¨‡Zi 18 kZvsk Avm‡Z cv‡i| wKš‘ cvigvYweK kw³i †¶‡Î wbivcËv, cvigvYweK A‡ ¿i cÖmvi Ges cvigvYweK eR©¨ G †¶‡Î eZ©gv‡bi g‡ZvB mgvb mgm¨v wn‡m‡e weivR Ki‡e21| • f~Mf© Í f~ZvwË¡K MV‡bi †¶‡Î Kve©b wbM©g‡b cÖwZeÜK I Kve©b mÂq (Carbon Capture and Storage -CCS) cÖhyw³ Gi eënvi GKwU bZzb cÖhyw³ hv 2030 mvj bvMv` wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb †iv‡a ¸iæZ¡c~Y© f~wgKv ivL‡Z m¶g| Aek¨ cÖhyw³MZ DKl©Zv, A_©‰bwZK Dbœqb Ges wbqš¿‡Yi bxwZgvjvi AwaK cÖ‡qvM wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb †iv‡a cÖK…Z f~wgKv ivL‡e| 11. †hvMv‡hvM Lv‡Z cÖkg‡bi eûwea cš’v Av‡Q19 wKš‘ GB Lv‡Zi `ªæZ we¯Í…wZ GB cš’v¸‡jvi Kvh©KvixZv‡K cÖwZKzjZvi gy‡L uvo Ki‡Z cv‡i| †fv³v‡ì AMÖvwaKvi Ges bxwZgvjv KvVv‡gvi

(policy frameworks) AcÖZzjZvi Kvi‡Y cÖkg‡bi cš’v¸wj A‡bK evavi m¤§yLxb n‡Z nq (gvSvwi ¯^xKvh©, ga¨g cÖgvwbZ)| • hvbevn‡bi Kvh©¶gZv e„w×i D‡`¨vM (improved vehicle efficiency measures) R¡vjvwb mvkª‡qi mn‡hvMx Ges A‡bK †¶‡Î cÖK…Z mydj e‡q Avb‡Z cv‡i (we‡kl K‡i nvjKv hvbevn‡bi Rb¨)| wKš‘ G †¶‡Î Kvh©KvixZv (performance) I AvKv‡ii g‡Zv †fv³v‡ì Ab¨vb¨ Pvwn`vi we‡ePbvq Gi evRvi m¤¢vebv A_©‰bwZK m¤¢vebvi Zzjbvq A‡bK Kg| fvix hvbevn‡bi †¶‡Î cÖkg‡bi m¤¢vebv wbiƒcY Kivi g‡Zv ch©vß Z‡_ï Afve i‡q‡Q| G Kvi‡Y R¡vjvwb g~‡jï DaŸ©MwZmn evRvi eë¯’vi (market forces) GKvi c‡¶ G †¶‡Î D‡jøL‡hvM¨ f~wgKv ivLv m¤¢e n‡e e‡j g‡b nq bv| • ‰Re R¡vjvwb †hvMv‡hvM Lv‡Z wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb n«v‡mi †¶‡Î D‡jøL‡hvM¨ f~wgKv cvjb Ki‡Z cv‡i, Z‡e GwU Gi Drcv`b MwZavivi (production pathway) Dci wbf©ikxj| M¨v‡mvwjb Ges wW‡R‡ji weKí wn‡m‡e ˆRe R¡vjvwbi eënvi 2030 mv‡ji †emjvBb Abyhvqx cwienY Lv‡Zi †gvU R¡vjvwbi 3 kZvs‡k DbœxZ n‡e| ‰Re R¡vjvwbi eënvi fwel¨‡Z 5-10% ch©šÍ e„w× †c‡Z cv‡i, Aek¨ Zv fwel¨‡Z †Zj I Kve©‡bi g~‡j¨, hvbevnb eënvi `¶Zvi Dbœqb Ges

Auvk RvZxq ev‡qvgvm (cellulose biomass) eënv‡ii cÖhyw³ Dbœq‡bi mvd‡jï Dci| • moK c‡_i Dci wbf©iZv †_‡K †ijc_, Af¨šÍixY Rjc_ I mgy ªc‡_ hvZvqv‡Zi Dci wbf©iZv cwieZ©b, ¯í hvÎxevnx (low-occupancy) †_‡K AaxK hvÎxevnx (highoccupancy) hvbevnb22 eënvi Ges Abyiƒcfv‡e f~wg eënvi, bMi cwiKíbv Ges Ahvwš¿K hvbevnb eënvi wMÖbnvDm M¨vm cÖkg‡bi AbyK~j| Aek¨ Gme D‡`¨vM ’vbxq Ae¯’v Ges bxwZgvjvi Dci wbf©ikxj | • wegvb PjvPj (aviation sector) LvZ †_‡K CO2 cÖkg‡bi †h gvSvwi (medium term mitigation potential) m¤¢vebv i‡q‡Q Zv g~jZ wbf©i K‡i R¡vjvwb `¶Zvi Dbœq‡bi Dci| hv AR©‡bi Rb¨ Avevi †ekwKQy cš’v Aej¤b Ki‡Z n‡e| Gme cš’vi g‡a¨ i‡q‡Q cÖhyw³ Dbœqb, wegvb cwiPvjbv I UªvwdK eë ’vcbv| Aek¨ GB me Dbœqb wegvb Lv‡Z wbM©gb‡K †Kej AvswkKfv‡e Kgv‡Z m¶g| GB Lv‡Z cÖkg‡bi c~Y© m¤¢vebv cwigv‡c CO2 QvovI wegvb PjvP‡ji Kvi‡Y m„ó Rjevqy‡Z cÖfve m„wóKvix Ab¨vb¨ M¨vmxq wbM©gb mg~n‡KI wn‡m‡ei g‡a¨ Avb‡Z n‡e| • cwienY Lv‡Z wbM©gb n«vm cÖvqkB UªvwdK R¨vg (traffic congestion) n«vm, evqyi gvb (air quality) msi¶Y Ges kw³ wbivcËv e„w×i g‡Zv evowZ myweav m„wó K‡i _v‡K|

12. bZzb Ges we`¨gvb ¯’vcbv¸wj‡Z kw³ eënv‡i `¶/wgZe¨qx (energy efficient) D‡`¨vM¸wj h‡_ó cwigv‡Y Kve©b WvBA·vBW cÖkgbmn A_©‰bwZKfv‡eI jvfRbK n‡Z cv‡i| GB m¤¢vebv¸‡jv ev¯Íevqb Kivi †¶‡Î A‡bK evav _vK‡jI G¸wji mn‡hvMx eû mydj i‡q‡Q (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY )| • 2030 mvj bvMv` Avevmb Lv‡Z wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi wbM©g‡bi kZKiv 30 fvM A_©‰bwZK jvfRbKfv‡e Gov‡bv hv‡e| • kw³ eënv‡i `¶/wgZe¨qx ’vcbv¸wj ïay CO2Gi wbM©gb‡KB mxwgZ K‡ibv, †mB m‡½ N‡ii wfZi I evB‡ii evqyi gvb (indoor and outdoor air quality) DbœZ Ki‡e, mvgvwRK Kj¨vY Ges kw³ wbivcËv e„w× Ki‡e| • wek¦Ry‡oB Avevmb Lv‡Z wMÖbnvDm M¨vm cÖkg‡bi my‡hvM i‡q‡Q| Aek¨ GB m¤¢vebv¸wj ev¯Íevq‡bi †¶‡Î eûwea cÖwZeÜKZv i‡q‡Q| GB cÖwZeÜKZv¸wji g‡a¨ i‡q‡Q cÖhyw³i mnRjf¨Zv, Avw_©K ms¯’vb, `vwi ª, wbf©i‡hvM¨ Z‡_ï D”Pg~j¨, ¯’vcbv wbg©vY †KŠk‡ji Af¨šÍixY mxgve×Zv Ges Dchy³ bxwZgvjv Ges Kg©m~wPi Afve| • Dbœqbkxj †`k¸‡jv‡Z Dc‡iv³ cªwZeÜKZv¸wji cÖ‡Kvc (magnitude) A‡bK †ewk Ges hv GB †`k¸wj‡Z wMÖbnvDm M¨vm cÖkgb m¤¢vebv‡K A‡bK †ewk KwVb K‡i †`q|

13. wkí-KviLvbv Lv‡Z19 †ewk kw³ eënviKvix wkí¸wjB A_©‰bwZKfv‡e †ewk m¤¢vebvgq wnmv‡e wPwýZ Kiv hvq| wk‡ívbœZ


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Ges Dbœqbkxj †`‡ki †KvbwU‡ZB cÖkg‡bi cÖPwjZ cš’v¸wji (available mitigation options) c~Y© eënvi GL‡bv nq wb (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY)| • A‡bK Dbœqbkxj †`‡k KviLvbvi my‡hvM myweav¸‡jv bZzb Ges AZ¨vaywbK cÖhyw³i, hv wbM©gb‡K me©‡”Pv ch©v‡q n«vm Ki‡Z we‡kl fywgKv iv‡L| hwÌ wk‡ívbœZ Ges Dbœqbkxj Dfq †`k¸wj‡Z GL‡bv A‡bK cy‡iv‡bv Ges A`¶ cÖhyw³ eëüZ n‡”Q| G me †¶‡Î cÖhyw³i gvbDbœqb Kiv n‡j Zv wbM©gb‡K A‡bKvs‡k n«vm Ki‡Z cvi‡e| • eZ©gv‡b mnRjf¨ (available) cÖkgb cš’v¸wji m¤ú~Y© eënv‡ii †¶‡Î cÖavb evav¸‡jv n‡”Q g~jab †diZ Avmvi axiMwZ (capital stock turnover), A_©‰bwZK I cÖhyw³MZ m¤ú‡ì Afve Ges we‡klfv‡e ¶z ª Ges gvSvwi AvKv‡ii wkí-KviLvbv¸wji mxgve×Zv Ges cÖhyw³MZ Z‡_¨ AwaMg¨Zv I †m¸wj ev¯Íevq‡bi †¶‡Î mxgve×Zv|

14. gvwUi Kve©b aviY (sinks) ¶gZv evov‡Z, wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi wbM©gb Kgv‡Z Ges kw³i eënv‡ii Rb¨ ev‡qvgvm wdWóK (biomass feedstocks) mieivn Kivi †¶‡Î mvgwMÖKfv‡e K…wlKvh© ¯^í e¨v‡q (low cost)19 mvgwMÖKfv‡e GKwU ¸iæZ¡c~Y© f~wgKv ivL‡Z cv‡i (ga¨g ¯^xKvh©, gvSvwi cÖgvY)| • gvwUi Kve©b m‡¼vP‡bi (soil carbon sequestration) gva¨‡g K…wl‡¶‡Î (ˆRekw³- bioenergy ev‡`) cÖkg‡bi GKwU eo m¤¢vebv i‡q‡Q| hv †UKmB K…wli mv‡_ wbweofv‡e hy³ Ges mvaviYfv‡e Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi SzwK n«v‡m mnvqK| • f~wg eë ’vcbvq cwieZ©b Ges Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi Kvi‡Y f~wg‡Z mwÂZ Kve©b (stored soil carbon) me‡P‡q †ewk SuywK‡Z i‡q‡Q| • wg‡_b Ges bvBUªvm A·vB‡W cÖkg‡bi †¶‡Î wKQy wKQy K…wl eë¯’vq h‡_ó m¤¢vebv i‡q‡Q| • cÖkg‡bi †Kvb mve©Rbxb cš’v †bB; ZvB we‡kl K…wl eë¯’v Ges KvVv‡gvi (individual agricultural systems and settings) Rb¨ cÖkg‡bi wfbœ wfbœ cš’v D™¢veb Ki‡Z n‡e| • K…wl Aewkó (agricultural residues) Ges ‰Re R¡vjvwb Drcv`bKvix km¨ (energy crops) n‡Z cÖvß ev‡qvgvm (biomass) ˆRekw³i (bioenergy) †¶‡Î GKwU ¸iyZ¡c~Y© Avavi (feedstock) n‡Z cv‡i, wKš‘ cÖkg‡bi †¶‡Î Gi Ae`vb wbf©i K‡i †hvMv‡hvM I kw³ Lv‡Z Gi Pvwn`vi Dci, cvwbi mnRjf¨Zv Ges Lv`¨ I Avuk (food and fibre) RvZxq cY¨ Drcv`‡bi Rb¨ f~wgi Pvwn`vi Dci|ev‡qvgvm Drcv`‡bi gva¨‡g kw³ Pvwn`v c~i‡Yi cš’v we Í…Z n‡j Zv Ab¨vb¨ Kv‡Ri cÖ‡qvR‡b K…wl Rwg eënv‡ii mv‡_ cÖwZ‡hvwMZvq AeZxY© n‡Z cv‡i Ges cwi‡ek I Lv`¨ wbicËvi †¶‡Î Gi BwZevPK I †bwZevPK yÕiKg cÖfveB i‡q‡Q|

15. ebvÂ‡ji m‡½ mswkøó (forest-related) cÖkgb Kvh©µg wbM©gb‡K Dr‡mB D‡jøL‡hvM¨fv‡e n«vm Ki‡Z m¶g Ges ¯^í Li‡P ‡kvl‡Yi (sinks) gva¨‡g CO2 Gi cwigvY Kgv‡bvi nvi e„w× Ki‡Z cv‡i Ges Zv GB cš’v‡K Ggbfv‡e cÖYqb Kiv †h‡Z cv‡i †h Zv Awf‡hvRb I †UKmB Dbœq‡bi gv‡S mgš^q (synergies) m„wó Ki‡Z cv‡i (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY)23|

• ebvÂj mswkøó cÖkg‡bi †¶‡Î wbi¶xq AÂ‡j (tropics) ‡gvU wbM©g‡bi cÖvq 65kZvsk n«v‡mi (100 US$/Ub CO2

mgZ~j¨) m¤¢vebv i‡q‡Q| ebvÂj DRvoRwbZ wbM©gb‡K cÖkg‡bi gva¨‡g †gvU wbM©g‡bi cÖvq 50fvM n«vm Kiv m¤¢e| • ebvÂj Lv‡Z {D`v: cÖvK…wZK (native) Ges m„RbK…Z (planted forests) Dfq cÖKv‡ii} cÖkgb m¤¢vebv Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi Kvi‡Y ¶wZMÖ Í n‡Z cv‡i Ges wfbœ wfbœ AÂj Ges DcvÂ‡ji Rb¨ Gi ZxeªZv (magnitude) I cÖK…wZ (direction) DfqB wfbœ wfbœ n‡Z cv‡i| • ebvÂj mswkøó wbM©gb n«v‡mi weKí¸‡jv Ggbfv‡e cÖbqb (designed) Ges ev Íevqb Kiv m¤¢e hv‡Z K‡i Awf‡hvR‡bi (adaptation) m‡½ †hvMm~Î ’vwcZ nq Ges Kg©ms¯’vb, Avq e„w×g~jK Kg©KvÐ, Rxe-êwPÎ¨ I Rjvavi msi¶Y (biodiversity and watershed conservation), bevqb‡hvM¨ kw³ mieivn Ges `vwi ª we‡gvP‡bi g‡Zv mn‡hvMx mydj¸wj (co-benefits) h‡_ó gvÎvq cvIqv hvq| 16. †fv³v cieZ©x eR¨© (post-consumer)24 ‰ewk¦K wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©g‡b25 mvgvb¨f~wgKvB iv‡L(<5%),wKš‘ Zvic‡iI ¯^í Li‡P19 wMÖbnvDm M¨vm cÖkg‡b eR©¨LvZ BwZevPK f~wgKv ivL‡Z cv‡i Ges †UKmB Dbœqb cÖeZ©b Ki‡Z cv‡i (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY) | • cÖPwjZ eR©¨ eë ’vcbvi c×wZ GB LvZ n‡Z wMÖbnvDm M¨vm cÖkg‡b Kvh©Ki f~wgKv ivL‡Z cv‡i; we Í…Z cwiwa, cwi‡ekMZfv‡e Kvh©Ki (environmentally effective) cÖhyw³¸wji evwYwR¨K mnRjf¨Zv, mn‡hvMx mydj wnmv‡e Rb¯^v‡¯’ï gvbDbœqb I wbivcËv, f~wg msi¶Y I ~lY‡iva, Ges ’vbxq kw³ mieivn| • eR © Kgv‡bv Ges cwi‡kvab (waste minimization and recycling) kw³ I e¯‘ msi¶‡Yi (conservation of energy and materials) gva¨‡g c‡iv¶fv‡e cÖkg‡b ¸iæZ¡c~Y© f~wgKv cvjb Ki‡Q| • Dbœqbkxj †`k¸wj‡Z Ges AšÍeZx©Kvjxb A_©bxwZi (economies in transition) †`k¸‡jv‡Z eR©¨ Ges RjR eR©¨ eë ’vcbvi †¶‡Î ’vbxq g~ja‡bi Afve me‡P‡q eo evav| †UKmB cÖhyw³i †¶‡Î `¶Zvi (expertise) AfveI AviI GKwU ¸iæZ¡c~Y© evav|


15

17. f~-cÖ‡KŠkj weKí¸‡jv (geo-engineering options) †hgb: evqygÐj ‡_‡K CO2 mivmwi ~ixKi‡Yi Rb¨ mg~‡`ªi De©Zv e„w× (ocean fertilization) A_ev evqygÐ‡ji Dcwifv‡M wewfbœ c`v‡_©i mgš^q NUv‡bvi gva¨‡g m~‡h©i Av‡jv‡K evav`vb (blocking sunlight by bringing material into the upper atmosphere)-GLbI A‡bKvs‡k KvíwbK (largely speculative) I AcÖgvwbZ Ges G¸wji cvk¦©-cÖwZwµqvI GL‡bv AÁvZ| Avevi GB weKí¸wji Rb¨ m¤¢ve¨ e¨q m¤ú‡K©I †Kvb MÖnY‡hvM¨ wnmve GLbI cÖKvwkZ nqwb (gvSvwi ¯^xKvh©, ¯^í cÖgvwbZ)| N. `xN©‡gqvw` cÖkgb (2030 Gi c‡i) [D. Mitigation in the long term (after 2030)]

18. evq~gÐ‡ji wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi †K› ªxf~Z nIqv‡K w¯’wZkxj ch©v‡q ivLvi Rb¨ wbM©gb gvÎv GKevi Pzov‡šÍ(peak) DV‡e Ges Zvi c‡i wbgœMvgx (decline) n‡e| w¯’wZkxjZvi ch©vq hZ wbgœn‡e ZZ `ªæZ wbM©gb‡K Pzov‡šÍDcbxZ nIqv Ges wbgœMvgx (decline) nIqvi cÖ‡qvRb| MZ yB-wZb `kK a‡i wbM©gb nªv‡mi cÖ‡Póv¸wj wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi w¯’wZkxjZvi ch©vq wbgœ ¯Í‡i ivLvi my‡hvM¸‡jv AR©b Kivi †¶‡Î GKwU eo cÖfve ivL‡e (†`Lyb †Uwej SPM.5, Ges wPÎ SPM. 8) (D”P ¯^xKvh© ,cÖPzi cÖgvY ) 26 |

• eZ©gvb M‡elYvq GK_v DÑvwUZ n‡q‡Q †h hv TAR Gi cÖwZ‡e`‡bi Zzjbvq GKvwaK M¨v‡mi (multi-gas) wbM©gb Kgv‡bvi ga¨ w`‡q wbM©g‡bi gvÎv wbgœ w¯’wZkxj Ae ’vi c‡¶ AbyK~j|

• m¤úvw`Z M‡elYv¸wj‡Z wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi mwbœ‡ek‡K (concentrations) w ’wZkxj ch©v‡q DbœxZ n‡Z wbM©gb mxgvi GKwU †cÖdvBj (range of emissions profiles) ˆZwi K‡i‡Q27| †ewkifvM M‡elYv‡ZB ¯í e¨q wfwËK cš’v eënvi Kivi m‡½ m‡½ ªæZ (early) I wejw¤^Z (delayed) Dfq cÖKvi wbM©gb n«vm‡K AšÍf~©³ K‡i‡Q (†Uwej SPM.7) [e· SPM.2]| †Uwej GmwcGg

5 G Rjevqy ms‡e`bkxjZvi (climate sensitivity) Ôm‡e©v”P AbygvbÕ (best estimate) Gi wfwË‡Z wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi cwigvY‡K Kvw•LZ ¯Í‡i w¯’wZkxj ivL‡Z wewfbœ MÖæ‡ci m¤¢ve¨ wbM©gb Ges Ges GKB m‡½ Gi d‡j we‡k¦i Mo ZvcgvÎvi e„w×i28 mvi ms‡¶c Dc¯’vwcZ n‡q‡Q (AwbðqZvi m¤¢ve¨ mxgv Rvb‡Z SPM.8 †`Lyb)29| wbM©gb‡K wbgœ ch©v‡q (lower concentration) w¯’i ivLvi Rb¨ Ges †mB m‡½ m¤úwK©Z ZvcgvÎvi ch©vq (equilibrium temperature levels) m¤ú‡K© Z_¨ wbM©gb KLb m‡ev©”P ch©v‡q (peak) DcbxZ n‡e Zvi mgq‡K GwM‡q wb‡q G‡m‡Q Ges 2050mv‡ji g‡a¨ wbM©gb‡K eo gvÎvq Kgv‡bvi cÖ‡qvRbxqZv‡K mvg‡b G‡b‡Q| †Uwej SPM. 5: TAR cieZx© mg‡q w¯’wZkxjZvi ch©vq m¤úwK©Z fwelr „k¨Kí [ †Uwej TS 2, 3.10] a

ch©vq †iwW‡qwUf †dvwm©s (IqvU/wg 2)

CO2 NbZ¡ (wcwcGg)c

CO2 mgZ~j¨ NbZ¡ (wcwcGg) c

Rjevqy ms‡e`bkxjZvi Ôm‡e©v”P AbygvbÕ Gi wfwË‡Z wkívqb c~e© fvimv‡gï Zzjbvq we‡k¦i Mo DòZv e„w× c

CO2 wbM©gb hLb m‡eŸv‡P© †cŠuQy‡e d

2050 mv‡j ‰ewk¦K wbM©g‡b cwieZ©b (2000 mv‡ji wbM©g‡bi %)

ch©‡v‡jvPbv K…Z wP‡Îi msL¨v

I 6.0-7.5 660-790 855-1130 4.9-6.1 2060-2090 +90 ‡_‡K + 140 5

II 5.0-6.0 570-660 710-855 4.0-4.9 2050-2080 +25 ‡_‡K + 85 9

III 4.0-5.0 485-570 590-710 3.2-4.0 2020-2060 +10 †_‡K + 60 118

IV 3.5-4.0 440-485 535-590 2.8-3.2 2010-2030 -30 ‡_‡K + 5 21

V 3.0-3.5 400-440 490-535 2.4-2.8 2000-2020 -60 †_‡K - 30 18

VI 2.5-3.0 350-400 445-490 2.0-2.4 2000-2015 -85 †_‡K - 50 6

†gvU 177

a) AR4 WGI wi‡cv‡U© †iwW‡qwUf †dvwm©s, GgbwK Gi wdWe¨vKmg~‡ni †¶‡Î Rjevqy eë ’vi mvov ev cÖwZwµqv m¤ú‡K© chv©‡jvPbv Kiv n‡q‡Q| Kve©bPµ Ges Rjevqy cwieZ©b Gi g‡a¨Kvi wdWe¨vK mg~n evqygÐ‡j Kve©b WvBA·vB‡Wi NbZ¡/mwbœ‡ekb‡K (concentration) GKwU wbw`©ó gvÎvq w ’wZkxj ivLvi Rb¨ AZ¨vek¨K cÖkg‡bi (required mitigation) Dci cÖfve †d‡j| GB wdWe¨vKmg~n Rjevqy eë ’vq DòZv m„wóKvix evqygÐ‡j Aew¯’Z gbyl¨m„ó (anthropogenic) wbM©g‡bi Askwe‡kl‡K (fraction) e„w× Ki‡Z cv‡i| †m Kvi‡Y wbM©gbK GKwU wbw`©ó Í‡i w ’wZkxj ivLvi Rb¨ cÖkgb msµvšÍM‡elYvq (mitigation studies) †h cwigvY wbM©gb n«v‡mi K_v wn‡me Kiv n‡q‡Q Zv m¤¢eZ Kg K‡i aiv n‡q‡Q (underestimated)| b) Rjevqyi ms‡e`bkxjZv m‡e©v”P 30 †mjwmqvm e‡j aviYv Kiv n‡q‡Q| [WG 1 SPM].


16

c) D‡jøL¨ †h Rjevqy cÖwµqvi wb®‹…qZvi (inertia) Kvi‡Y wMÖbnvDm M¨vm¸wj w ’wZkxj ch©v‡q _vKvi mgq m¤¢ve¨ êwk¦K Mo ZvcgvÎvi (expected global mean temperature) †P‡q êwk¦K Mo ZvcgvÎvi mvgë ’v (global mean temperature at equilibrium) wfbœ n‡e| †ewkifvM wPÎK‡í (scenarios) Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q †h 2100 Ges 2150 Gi g‡a¨ wMÖbnvDm M¨vm¸wj w¯’wZkxj ch©v‡q Avm‡e| d) TAR cieZx© mg‡qi „k¨Kí¸wj‡Z (scenarios) GB mxgv 15Zg †_‡K 85 Zg kZvs‡ki (percentile) g‡a¨ i‡q‡Q| c„_Kfv‡e CO2

wbM©gb wPÎ Zz‡j aivq ïay CO2 wbM©g‡bi m‡½ Ab¨vb¨ M¨v‡mi wbM©gb Zzjbv Kiv hvq| 16. TAR WG III (2001) SPM c¨vivMÖvd 16 †`Lyb| 17. µm- †m±ivj cwi‡cÖw¶‡Z GKwU †`k ev GKB MÖæcf~³ †`k¸wji wbM©gb n«vmRwbZ bxwZgvjv Ges cÖwZwµqvq ìcZ‡bi av°v (spill over) Ab¨ †`‡ki wewfbœ †m±‡i cÖfve †dj‡Z cv‡i| 18. †h me †`k wbM©gb n«v‡m ivóªxq D‡`¨vM wb‡q‡Q †m me †`‡ki evB‡i Kve©b WvBA·vB‡Wi wbM©gb e„w×i cwigvY‡K D‡jøwLZ †`k¸wji Af¨šÍ‡i wbM©gb n«vm Øviv fvM (divided) Kiv n‡j cÖvß gvb‡K Kve©b wj‡KR (carbon leakage) wn‡m‡e msÁvwqZ Kiv nq| 19. †`Lyb †Uwej SPM.1 Ges wPÎ SPM.6 20. 20 wUªwjqb = 20 nvRvi wewjqb = 20×10 12 21 = Aw÷ªqv GB wee„wZi mv‡_ GKgZ nqwb| 22 moK, †ij I †bŠ c‡_ MYcwienY Ges Mvwoi mgwó (carpooling) Gi AšÍf©~³| 23. WG III wi‡cv‡U©i 15Zg c„ôvq 9 bs Aa¨v‡q wee„Z ÔeëüZ f~wgi g~j¨ wn‡m‡e Avb‡j ebvÂjwfwËK wbM©gb n«v‡mi e¨q LyeB †ewk n‡q hvqÕ GB e³‡eï wel‡q Ô¯^í e¨qÕ Gi †idv‡iÝ wn‡m‡e Uzfvjy wØgZ †cvlY K‡i‡Q (noted difficulties)| 24. wkí eR © wkí Lv‡Zi AvIZvf~³| 25. f~wgfivU ‡_‡K wMÖbnvDm M¨vm Ges eR¨©cvwb †_‡K wg‡_b,eR¨©cvwb †_‡K bvBUªvm A·vBW,Ges Rxevk¥ Kve©b ‡cvov‡bvi(incineration of fossil carbon) gva¨‡g Kve©b WvBA·vBW wbM©gb| 26. c¨vivMÖvd 2 wkí wecøe c~e©eZx©Kvj †_‡K wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb‡K Zz‡j a‡i‡Q| 27. w¯’wZ (stabilization) KLb AwR©Z n‡e †m m¤ú‡K© M‡elYv¸wj‡Z gZcv_©K¨ i‡q‡Q| Z‡e mvaviYfv‡e aiv nq †h GUv 2100 mvj ev Zvi c‡i AwR©Z n‡e | 28. êwk¦K Mo ZvcgvÎv m¤úwK©Z Z_¨wU AR4 WGI , wi‡cv‡U©i Aa¨vq 10.8 †_‡K †bIqv n‡q‡Q| wbM©gb w¯’wZkxj ch©v‡q Avmvi †ek c‡i ZvcgvÎv GB ¯Í‡i DcbxZ n‡q‡Q| 29. w¯’i †iwW‡qwUf †dvwm©s (radiative forcing) Gi †¶‡Î Rjevqy eë¯’vi mvov‡K (climate system response) eyS‡Z Rjevqyi fvimvg¨ Ae¯’vi ms‡e`bkxjZv (equilibrium climate sensitivity) cwigv‡ci GKwU c×wZ| GwU wPÎKí (projection) bv n‡jI evqygÐ‡j Kve©b WvBA·vB‡Wi cwigvY wØ¸Y n‡j f~-c„‡ôi Mo ZvcgvÎv Kx n‡e Zv e¨vL¨v K‡i [AR4 WGI SPM]|


17

wPÎ SPM 7: weKí w¯’wZkxj ch©v‡qi Rb¨ cÖkgb wPÎK‡í (mitigation scenarios) wbM©gb MwZaviv (emissions pathways) e‡· D‡jøLK…Z K¨vUvMwi 1 †_‡K 4 G †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| GB MwZavivq †Kej Kve©b WvBA·vB‡Wi wbM©gb n«vm †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| nvjKv-ev`vwg Ave„Z (light brown shaded) Ask w`‡q TAR cieZx© mg‡q Kve©b WvBA·vB‡Wi wbM©gb n«vm wPÎKí‡K †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| meyR Ave„Z Ask (green shaded) Ges Zxh©K `vM †Ìqv Ask (hatched areas) w`‡q TAR D‡jøwLZ 80wUiI †ewk w¯’wZkxjZvi wPÎK‡íi mxgv †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| Aek¨ wewfbœ †m±‡ii I wkí-KviLvbvi we¯Í…wZi g‡a¨ wfbœZv _vKvq g‡Wj¸wji wfwË eQ‡ii wbM©gb (base year emissions) wfbœ wfbœ n‡Z cv‡i| wbgœ w¯’wZkxj ch©v‡q (lower stabilization levels) DcbxZ nIqvi Rb¨ wKQy wKQy wPÎK‡í (scenarios) Kve©b cÖwZeÜK I mÂq (carbon capture and storage) †K eënvi K‡i ev‡qvgvm †_‡K kw³ Drcv`b (biomass energy production) cÖhyw³i g‡Zv evqygÐj †_‡K Kve©b WvBA·vBW mwi‡q †djvi (removal of CO2 from the atmosphere) c×wZ‡KI (†bwZevPK wbM©gb- negative emissions) eënvi K‡i‡Q|


18

19. we`¨gvb cÖhyw³mg~‡ni mwbœ‡ek‡bi (deployment) gva¨‡g w¯’wZkxj ¯Í‡ii mxgv wbiæcb AR©b Kiv m¤¢e Ges Avmbœ `kK¸wj‡Z Gme cÖhyw³i evwYwR¨KxKiY n‡e e‡j Avkv Kiv n‡”Q| G †¶‡Î a‡i †bIqv nq †h cÖhyw³ Dbœqb, AR©b (acquisition), we¯Ívi I cÖmv‡ii Rb¨ Ges mswkøó evavmg~n wPwýZ Kivi Rb¨ h_vh_ Ges Kvh©Ki myweav (incentives) we`¨gvb _vK‡e (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY)|

• wbM©gb n«vm‡K w¯’wZkxj ch©v‡q DbœxZ Ki‡Z mnvqK wewfbœ cÖhyw³i f~wgKv mgq,AÂj Ges w ’wZkxj Í‡ii Dci wfwË K‡i cwiewZ©Z n‡e| o kw³ eënv‡i `¶Zv †ewkifvM AÂj Ges mgqmxgvi (timescales) †¶‡Î A‡bK „k¨K‡í cÖavb f~wgKv cvjb K‡i| o wb¤œ ch©v‡qi w ’iKiY ¯Í‡ii (lower stabilization levels) Rb¨, „k¨Kí¸wj (scenarios) ¯í Kve©b kw³ Dr‡mi (low-

carbon energy sources) eënvi, †hgb bevqb‡hvM¨ kw³ I AvbweK kw³ eënvi Ges CO2 Gi avib I mÂq (CCS). Gi Dci ¸iæZ¡ Av‡ivc K‡i| GB „k¨Kí¸wj‡Z kw³ mieiv‡ni †¶‡Î Kve©‡bi cÖvavb¨ (carbon intensity) n«vm Ges cy‡iv A_©bxwZ‡K Av‡Mi Zzjbvq †eMevb Kivi Dci ¸iæZ¡ †Ìqv n‡q‡Q| o CO2 bq, Ggbmn I f~wgi eënv‡ii Kvi‡Y wbM©Z CO2 Ges ebvÂj wfwËK wbM©gb n«v‡mi cš’v¸wj w¯’wZ AR©‡bi †¶‡Î eo ai‡bi bgbxqZv I e¨q mvkª‡qi my‡hvM G‡b w`‡q‡Q| wbM©gb n«vmKi‡Y bevqb †hvM¨ kw³ eënv‡ii †¶‡Î Ava~wbK ˆRe-R¡vjvwb †ek ¸iæZ¡c~Y© fywgKv cvjb Ki‡Z cv‡i| o cÖkgb cš’v¸wji wek` D`vni‡Yi Rb¨ wPÎ SPM. 9 ªóe¨|

• w ’iKi‡Yi j¶¨gvÎv AR©b (achieving stabilization targets) Ges †mB m‡½ e¨q n«v‡mi Rb¨ Kg wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gbKvix cÖhyw³i †cQ‡b wewb‡qvM I G ¸wji wek¦e¨vcx cÖmv‡ii cvkvcvwk miKvwi I †emiKvwi ch©vq M‡elYv, Dbœqb I ev¯Íe cÖwk¶‡Yi (Research, Development & Demonstration-RD&D) gva¨‡g cÖhyw³ Dbœq‡bi cÖ‡qvRbxqZv i‡q‡Q| w¯’wZkxj Íi bx‡P bvgv‡bvi Rb¨ we‡kl K‡i Zv 550 wc wc Gg CO2 Gi mgZzj¨ ev Zvi †P‡qI wb‡P bvgv‡bvi Rb¨

Avmbœ `kK¸wj‡Z AviI `¶/Kvh©Ki M‡elYv, Dbœqb I ev¯Íe cÖwk¶Y (RD&D) cÖ‡Póv Ges bZzb cªhyw³‡Z wewb‡qvM Kiv cÖ‡qvRb| Gi Rb¨ ìKvi cÖhyw³ Dbœqb, AR©b, we¯Ívi I cÖmv‡i †¶‡Î weivRgvb evavmg~n‡K mwVKfv‡e †gvKv‡ejv Kiv|

• h_vh_ my‡hvM-myweav (appropriate incentives) cÖ`vb Gme evavmg~n‡K †gvKv‡ejv Ges mswkøó cÖhyw³ mg~‡ni j¶¨‡K Abyave‡b (realize) mnvqZv Ki‡Z cv‡i| [2.7,3.3, 3.4, 3.6, 4.3, 4.4, 4.6]

wPÎ SPM.8: wPÎ SPM.7G D‡jøLK…Z w¯’wZKi‡Yi ch©vq (iw½bAsk) Ges wkí-wecøe cieZx© mg‡q êwk¦K Mo ZvcgvÎvi fvimvg¨ cwieZ©‡bi m‡½ G‡ì m¤úK©- (i) 30 †m: ZvcgvÎvq Rjevqy ms‡e`bkxjZvi Ôm‡e©v”P AbygvbÕ (Qvqve„Z AÂ‡ji gaëZx© Kv‡jv†iLv), (ii)4Õ50†m:ZvcgvÎvq Rjevqy ms‡e`bkxjZvi m¤¢ve¨( likely range) D”P ch©vq (Qvqve„Z AÂ‡jiDcwieZx© jvj†iLv), (iii) 20 †m: ZvcgvÎvq Rjevqy ms‡e`bkxjZvi m¤¢ve¨ wb¤œ ch©vq (Qvqve„Z AÂ‡ji wb¤œvs‡ki bxj †iLv) Gi gva¨‡g Zz‡j aiv n‡q‡Q| iw½b Qvqv Ave„Z Ask¸wj wPÎ SPM.7 G w ’wZKiY AbyKímg~‡ni (secnario) ch©vq I†_‡K VI D‡jøLK…Z w¯’wZKi‡Yi ch©vq Abyhvqx evqygÐ‡j wMÖbnvDm M¨vm¸wjimwbœ‡ekb (concentration) †`wL‡q‡Q| GB †Uwe‡ji Z_¨¸wj AR4

WGI Aa¨vq 10.8 †_‡K msM„nxZ|


19

wPÎ SPM 9: 2000 †_‡K 2030 mvj ch©šÍ(evg c¨v‡b‡j) Ges 2000 †_‡K 2100 mvj ch©šÍ(Wvb c¨v‡b‡j) cÖkg‡bi weKí cš’v¸wji (alternative mitigation measures) avivevwnK wbM©gb n«vm (cumulative emissions reductions) †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| wPÎwU µgvbyhvqx CO2 mgZ~j¨ wbM©gb 490-540 wcwcGg-G w¯’iKi‡Z Ges 650 wcwcwGg ch©v‡q CO2 mgZ~j¨ wbM©g‡bi mnvqK `„k¨Kí (illustrative scenarios) 4wU g‡Wj (AIM, IMAGE, IPAC

and MESSAGE) Gi wfwË‡Z cÖYxZ| fivU evi (dark bars) ¸wj CO2 mgZ~j¨ wbM©gb 650 wcwcGg j¶¨gvÎv AR©‡bi Rb¨ AZ¨vek¨K wbM©gb n«vm‡K Ges nvjKv evi (light bars) ¸wj CO2 mgZ~j¨ wbM©gb‡K 490-540 wcwcGg ch©v‡q a‡i ivL‡Z AwZwi³ †h wbM©gb n«vm Ki‡Z n‡e Zv cÖ`k©b Ki‡Q| D‡jøL¨ †h wKQy g‡Wj (AIM and IPAC) ebvÂ‡ji Kve©b avib e„w×i (forest sink enhancement) Gi d‡j wbM©gb n«vm ev Kve©b avib I mÂq (CCS) †K we‡ePbvq Av‡bwb (D`v: AIM)| G Kvi‡Y mgMÖ kw³ mieivn eë¯’vq ¯í-Kve©b wbf©i kw³i (low-carbon energy) f~wgKv Gme weKí¸wj‡K †emjvB‡bi AšÍ©f~³ Kivi gva¨g wba©vwiZ n‡q‡Q| ev‡qvgvm †_‡K Kve©b avib I mÂq‡K CCS AšÍ©f~³ Ges ebDRv‡oi d‡j msNwUZ wbM©gb †K n«vm Ki‡Z Zv ebvÂ‡ji Kve©b we‡kvab (forest sinks) AšÍ©f~³ Kiv n‡q‡Q| [Figure 3.23]

20. ‰ewk¦K gvwë-M¨vm (multi-gas) wbM©gb‡K n«vm K‡i Kve©b WvBA·vBW mgZ~j¨ (CO2-eq) 710 †_‡K 445 wcwcGg Gi g‡a¨ w¯’wZkxj ivLvi Rb¨ 205030 mvj bvMv` mvgwóK-A_©‰bwZK e¨q (macro-economic costs) Mo wRwWwcÕi (+) 1% e„w× †_‡K (-) 5.5% n«v‡mi g‡a¨ _vK‡e (†`Lyb †Uwej SPM.6)| we‡kl †`k ev †m±‡ii †¶‡Î e¨‡qi h‡_ó cwigvY n«vm-e„w× (costs vary) N‡U (Kg©c×wZ Ges Abygvbmg~‡ni Rb¨ †Uwej SPM.3 I SPM.4 †`Lyb Ges †bwZevPK e¨‡qi e¨vL¨vi Rb¨ c¨vivMÖvd 5 †`Lyb) (D”P ¯^xKvh©, ch©vß Z_¨Øviv mgw_©Z)|

21.mg‡qi m‡½ m‡½ êwk¦K wbM©gb ‡hŠw³K ch©v‡q n«vm Ki‡Yi (appropriate level of global mitigation) wel‡q bxwZ-wba©vi‡Yi m‡½ SuywK eë¯’vcbvi avivevwnK (iterative) eë¯’vcbv hy³ i‡q‡Q, hvi g‡a¨ wbM©gb n«vm I Awf‡hvRb, Rjevqy cwieZ©bRwbZ cÖK…Z I Gwo‡q hvIqv ¶q-¶wZ (actual and avoided climate change damages) †K we‡ePbvq Avbv, mn‡hvMx Ab¨vb¨ mydj, †UKmB, mgZv Ges

SuywKi cÖwZ g‡bvfve (attitudes to risk) AšÍf~©³ i‡q‡Q| wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi wbM©gb n«v‡mi cwiwa I mgq‡K (scale and timing) †e‡Q †bIqvi †¶‡Î eZ©gv‡b ªæZ wbM©gY nªvm Ki‡Yi Rb¨ A_©‰bwZK e¨q‡K Aek¨B fwel¨‡Z ga¨g ev ~ieZx© mg‡q Rjevhy cwieZ©bRwbZ SuywK e„w×i cwi‡cÖw¶‡Z wePvi Ki‡Z n‡e(m‡e©vËg ¯xKvh©, ch©vß cÖgvY)|

• cÖkgbRwbZ e¨q Ges mydj (costs and benefits of mitigation) m¤ú‡K© mxgve× I cÖv_wgK (limited and early) we‡kølY¸wj‡Z †`Lv wM‡q‡Q †h we¯Í…Zfv‡e (broadly) †`L‡j wbM©gbRwbZ mydj gvÎvMZfv‡e (in magnitude) †ewk| wKš‘ GL‡bv ch©šÍ G K_v wbwðZ K‡i ejv hv‡e bv †h wbM©g‡bi MwZaviv (emissions pathway) A_ev w¯’wZkxj ch©vq‡K (stabilization level) Ggb Ae¯’v‡b DcbxZ Kiv hv‡”Q hvi d‡j cÖvß mydj Gi Rb¨ m¤¢ve¨ e¨q‡K Qvwo‡q hv‡e (benefits exceed costs)|

30. c¨vivMÖvd 5 G 2030 mv‡ji AbywgZ e¨q Dc¯’vcb Kiv n‡q‡Q


20

● wbM©gb n«v‡mi wewfbœ MwZavivi (pathways) A_©‰bwZK e¨q I mydj we‡kølY K‡i †`Lv hvq †h, wbM©gb n«v‡mi A_©‰bwZKfv‡e Kvw¶Z mgq I ch©vq (optimal timing and level) g~jZ wbf©i K‡i Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi Kvi‡Y AbywgZ ¶q-¶wZRwbZ e¨‡qi †jLwP‡Îi (climate change damage cost curve) Dci| GB wbf©iZvi e¨vL¨v wbgœiƒc :

o hw` Rjevqy cwieZ©bRwbZ A_©‰bwZK ¶wZi †jLwPÎ (climate change damage cost curve) ax‡i Ges wbqwgZfv‡e e„w×cvq Ges G †¶‡Î hw` yi`k©x cwiKíbv (good foresight) _v‡K (hv mgqg‡Zv Awf‡hvR‡bi Rb¨ mnvqK), Zvn‡j cÖkgb †`wi‡Z Ges Kg K‡VviZvi (later and less stringent mitigation) m‡½ ïiæ Kiv A_©‰bwZKfv‡e hyw³m½Z n‡e| o Ab¨w`‡K hw` Rjevqy cwieZ©bRwbZ A_©‰bwZK ¶wZi †jLwPÎ hw` †mvRv Dc‡i DV‡Z _v‡K (increases steeply) ev AvuKv-euvKv (non-linearities) nq (D`v: SzuwKi m~ÎcvZ ev GgbwK gvivZ¥K y‡h©v‡Mi mvgvb¨Zg m¤¢vebvI _v‡K), †m

†¶‡Î Av‡Mfv‡MB (earlier) Ges K‡VviZvi m‡½ (more stringent) wbM©gb n«vm Kiv A_©‰bwZKfv‡e mwVK e‡j we‡ewPZ n‡e| [3.6].

● ZvcgvÎvi GKwU wbw ©ó ch©v‡q DcbxZ nIqvi R‡b¨ cÖYxZ cÖkgb „k¨K‡íi (mitigation scenarios) †¶‡Î Rjevqy ms‡e`bkxjZv GKwU cÖavb AwbðqZv| M‡elYvq †`Lv wM‡q‡Q †h Av‡Mfv‡M (earlier) wbM©gb n«vm ïiæ Kiv Ges wbM©g‡bi wb¤œ ch©v‡qi Zzjbvq cieZx©‡Z Rjevqy ms‡e`bkxjZv †ewk I cÖLi (stringent) nq| [3.5, 3.6].

● wejw¤Z wbM©gb n«vm wewb‡qvM‡K evwo‡q †Zv‡j hv AviI wbM©gb-Nb AeKvVv‡gv (more emission-intensive infrastructure) Ges Dbœqb MwZaviv‡K (development pathways) AvU‡K †`q (lock in)| GgbwU wMÖbnvDm M¨v‡mi wb¤œ ch©v‡q w¯’wZKi‡Yi (lower stabilization levels) my‡hvM AR©‡bi †¶‡Î eo ai‡Yi evav ( hv †Uwej SPM.5 G †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q) Ges Zv Rjevqy cwieZ©bRwbZ AviI cÖej (more severe) cÖwZwµqv NUvi SuywK e„w× K‡i|[3.4, 3.1, 3.5, 3.6]

†Uwej SPM 6: wewfbœ `xN©‡gqvw` w¯’wZi j¶¨ a) AR©‡bi Rb¨ ¯í e¨‡qi avivi (least-cost trajectories) †emjvB‡bi m‡½ 2050 mvj bvMv` AbywgZ êwk¦K mvgwóK-A_©‰bwZK e¨q [3.3, 13.3]

w¯’wZkxjZvi ch©vq (Stabilization levels) (wcwcGg CO2 mgZzj¨)

wRwWwc n«v‡mi Mo ev ga¨K gvb b (Median GDP reduction)

(%)

wRwWwc n«v‡mi mxgv (Range of GDP

reductionb), c) (%)

Mo evwl©K wRwWwc cÖe„w× n«v‡mi nvi (Reduction of average annual GDP

growth ratesb), d) (kZvskwfwËK c‡q›U) (percentage points)

590-710 0.5 -1-2 <0.05 535-590 1.3 mvgvb¨ †bwZevPK -4 <0.1 445-535e) N/A <5.5 <0.12

a) GwU wRwWwcÕi msL¨v D‡jøL K‡i‡Q Ggb mKj †emjvBb Ges cÖkgb `„k¨K‡íi (mitigation scenarios) cÖwZwbwaZ¡ Ki‡Q| b) ‰ewk¦K wRwWwc wfwËK evRvi wewbgq nvi (global GDP based market exchange rates)| c) we‡kølYK…Z WvUvmg~‡ni ga¨K (median) Ges 10g I 90Zg kZvsk nv‡ii mxgv (percentile range)| d) Mo evwl©K wRwWwc cÖe„w× n«v‡mi nvi 2050 mvj ch©šÍMo wRwWwc n«v‡mi Dci wfwË K‡i wn‡m‡e Kiv n‡q‡Q- hv 2050 mvj bvMv` wRwWwc n«v‡mi Bw½Z (indicated) K‡i| e) GB †¶‡Î M‡elYvi msL¨v Zzjbvg~jKfv‡e mxwgZ Ges Gme M‡elYv g~jZ wb¤œ †emjvBb (low baselines) eënvi K‡i‡Q| D”P wbM©gb †emjvBb¸wj mvaviYZ D”P e¨q‡K wb‡`©k K‡i|

O) Rjevqy cwieZ©b n«vmKi‡Yi Rb¨ bxwZgvjv, D‡`¨vM I gva¨g mg~n| (E. Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change) 22. wbM©gb n«vm Kg©KvÐ‡K mnvqZv Ki‡Z wewfbœ ai‡bi I we Í…Z RvZxq bxwZgvjv Ges c×wZ miKv‡ii i‡q‡Q| G Mywji cÖ‡qvM RvZxq ev¯ÍeZv Ges G‡ì cvi¯úvwiK wµqvi mgš^‡qi Dci wbf©i K‡i, wKš‘ wewfbœ †`k Ges †m±i¸wj‡Z G me ‡KŠk‡ji (instruments) †h †KvbwU ev¯Íevq‡bi †¶‡Î myweav Ges Amyweav yÕwUB cwijw¶Z n‡q‡Q (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY)|

● cwi‡ekMZ Kvh©KwiZv, e¨q mvkªq, n ÍvšÍwiZ djvdj(distributional effects), mgZv, Ges cÖvwZôvwbK m¤¢ve¨Zv-GB PviwU êwkó¨ eënvi K‡i bxwZgvjv Ges c×wZmg~n‡K g~j¨vqb Kiv hvq [13.2].

● mKj c×wZ‡KB fvj A_ev ~e©jfv‡e cwiKíbv Kiv hvq Ges G¸wj K‡Vvi ev wV‡jXvjv n‡Z cv‡i| G QvovI mKj c×wZi †¶‡Î ev Íevq‡bi gvb Dbœq‡bi Rb¨ cwiex¶Y (monitoring) GKwU ¸iæZ¡c~Y© welq| bxwZgvjv¸wji ZrciZv m¤ú‡K© mvaviY ch©‡e¶Y (General findings) n‡”Q wb¤œiƒc: [7.9, 12.2, 13.2] o e„nËi Dbœqb bxwZgvjvi m‡½ Rjevqy cwieZ©b msµvšÍbxwZgvjvmg~n mgwšZ Kiv n‡j Zv ev Íevqb Ges evav ~ixKiY‡K mnRZi Ki‡e|


21

o wbqg Ges gvb mvaviYZ wbM©gb ¯Í‡ii †¶‡Î wKQzUv wbðqZv cÖ vb K‡i| G¸wj Ab¨vb¨ gva¨g/c×wZ‡ZI (instruments) MÖnY‡hvM¨ n‡Z cv‡i hLb Z_¨ A_ev Ab¨vb¨ evav¸wj Drcv`K Ges †fv³v‡ì(producers and consumers) g~j¨ ms‡KZ (price signals) Gi cÖwZ mvov †Ìqv †_‡K weiZ iv‡L| Aek¨ Gme wbqg I gvb bZzb Avwe®‹vi‡K ev AviI AvaywbK cÖhyw³ eënvi‡K DrmvnxZ K‡i bv| o Ki Ges †mevg~j¨ (Taxes and charges) Kve©‡bi g~j¨ wba©viY Ki‡Z cv‡i, wKš‘ GKwU wbw ©ó wbMg©b ¯Í‡ii wbðqZv w`‡Z cv‡i bv| M‡elYvq †`Lv wM‡q‡Q wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©g‡bi e¨q AvËxKi‡Y (internalizing) Ki GKwU Kvh©Ki cš’v n‡Z cv‡i| o wewbgq‡hvM¨ cviwgUI (tradable permits) Kve©‡bi GKwU g~j¨ wba©viY Ki‡e| AbygwZ cÖvß wbM©g‡bi cwigvY Zv‡ì cwi‡ekMZ Kvh©KvwiZv wbav©iY Ki‡e, Avevi Aby‡gvw`Z cviwg‡Ui n ’všÍi RwbZ cÖfve (distributional consequences) i‡q‡Q| Kve©‡bi evRvi g~‡jï AvKw®§K n«vm e„w× wbM©gb cviwg‡Ui m‡½ m¤úwK©Z (complying with) †gvU e¨q wbav©iY‡K KwVb K‡i‡Q| o bZzb cÖhyw³i Dbœqb Ges cÖmvi‡K DrmvwnZ Ki‡Z miKvi A_©‰bwZK mnvqZv (fZ©yKx Ges Ki †µwWU) (subsidies and tax credits) eûj eëüZ nq| hwÌ GB ‡KŠkj¸wji A_©‰bwZK g~j¨ Dc‡i D‡jøLK…Z †KŠkj¸wji Zzjbvq mvaviYZ †ekx, Z‡e †m¸‡jv cÖvqkB evav ~ixKi‡Y mnvqK bq| o wkí KviLvbv Ges miKv‡ii g‡a¨ †¯”Qv‡mevg~jK Pzw³ (Voluntary agreements) ivR‰bwZKfv‡e AvKl©Yxq, †óK‡nvìvi‡ì m‡PZbZv e„w× K‡i Ges wewfbœ RvZxq bxwZgvjv weKv‡k Ae`vb iv‡L| Z‡e †ewkifvM Pyw³B MZvbyMwZK avivi (business as usual) †P‡q †ewk wbM©gb n«vm Ki‡Z cv‡iwb| hvB‡nvK mv¤cÖwZK wKQz Pzw³ K‡qKwU iv‡óª, cÖPwjZ cÖhyw³¸wji g‡a¨Kvi me‡P‡q fv‡jv cÖhyw³i eënvi‡K Z¡ivwš^Z K‡i‡Q Ges D‡jøL‡hvM¨ cwigvY wbM©gb n«v‡m f~wgKv †i‡L‡Q | o Z_¨ cÖ`v‡bi †KŠkj¸wj (Information instruments) ( †hgb: m‡PZbZv m„wó) m¤¢eZ Z_¨mg„× cQ‡›ì (informed choices) †hvMvb w`‡q cwi‡ekMZ gvb Gi Dci BwZevPK cÖfve †d‡j Ges m¤¢ve¨ AvPiYMZ cwieZ©‡b Ae`vb ivL‡Q, hvB †nvK wbM©g‡bi Dci Zv‡ì cÖfve GLbI wbiƒwcZ nqwb| o M‡elYv, Dbœqb I ev¯Íe cÖwk¶Y (RD&D) cÖhyw³MZ Dbœqb‡K Z¡ivwš^Z (stimulate) Ki‡Z cv‡i, e¨q Kgv‡Z cv‡i, Ges w¯’wZi w`‡K Dbœqb‡K avweZ Ki‡Z cv‡i| ● wKQz msL¨K K‡c©v‡ikb, ’vbxq Ges AvÂwjK KZ©„c¶, †emiKvix †¯”Qv‡mex ms ’v (NGOs) Ges wmwfj †mvmvBwU A‡bK cÖKvi †¯^”Qv‡mex Kg©KvÐ MÖnY K‡i‡Q| Gme †¯^”Qv‡mex Kvh©µg wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb‡K mxwgZ Ki‡Y,

bZzb/Awfbe bxwZgvjv‡K Z¡ivwšZ (stimulate) Ki‡Z f~wgKv ivL‡Z cv‡i Ges bZzb cÖhyw³i cÖmv‡i Drmvn †hvMvq| Aek¨ Zv‡ì wbR¯ wnmv‡eB RvZxq Ges AvÂwjK ch©v‡qi wbM©g‡bi Dci Zv‡ì cÖfve mvaviYfv‡e mxwgZ [13.4]| ● mywbw ©ó †m±‡i RvZxq bxwZgvjv Ges ‡KŠk‡ji cÖ‡qvMjä AwfÁZv †Uwej SPM.7 G †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q|

23. Kve©b Gi cÖK…Z A_ev AšÍ©MZ g~j¨ (implicit price) cÖ`vbKvix bxwZgvjvMywj Drcv`K Ges †fv³v‡ì ¯^í wMÖbnvDm M¨vm Drcv`bKvix cY¨, cÖhyw³ Ges cÖwµqvi †cQ‡b D‡jøL‡hvM¨ wewb‡qv‡Mi my‡hvM m„wó Ki‡Z cv‡i| G RvZxq bxwZgvjvmg~n A_©‰bwZK ‡KŠkj, miKv‡ii A_©vqb Ges m¤úwK©Z AvBbx myweav‡K eënvi Ki‡Z cv‡i (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY)| ● GKwU Kvh©Kix Kve©b g~j¨ wb‡ ©kK (carbon-price signal) mKj Lv‡Z wbM©gb n«v‡mi m¤¢vebv‡K D‡jøL‡hvM¨fv‡e Abyave‡b mnvqZv Ki‡Z cv‡i [11.2,13.2]| ● Kve©b mwbœ‡ek‡bi gvÎv 2100 mv‡ji g‡a¨ cÖvq 550 wcwGg CO2 mgZyj¨ ch©vq w¯’i ivLvi m‡½ mswkøó g‡Wj M‡elYv¸wj‡Z (e· SPM.3 ªóe¨) †`Lv hvq †h 2030 mv‡ji g‡a¨ Kve©b Gi g~j¨ 20 †_‡K 80 BD Gm Wjvi/Ub (CO2 mgZzj¨) (US$/tCO2-eq) Ges 2050 mv‡ji g‡a¨ 30 †_‡K 155 BDGm Wjvi/Ub (CO2 mgZ~‡j¨) e„w× cv‡e| GKB w¯’wZ Í‡ii Rb¨ TAR cieZx© M‡elYv¸wj‡Z Aek¨ GB g~j¨ ¯Íi wKQyUv Kg n‡Z cv‡i e‡j Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q| cÖewZ©Z cÖhyw³MZ cwieZ©b‡K (induced technological change) we‡ePbvq wb‡q TAR cieZx© M‡elYv¸wj‡Z Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q †h, Kve©‡bi g~j¨ 2030mv‡j 5 †_‡K 65BDGm Wjvi/Ub (CO2 mgZzj¨) G Ges 2050 mvj bvMv` 15 †_‡K 130 BDGm Wjvi/Ub (CO2 mgZzj¨) ch©v‡q Avm‡e [3.3,11.4,11.5]| ● †ekxi fvM Dci †_‡K bx‡P (top-down) ch©v‡jvPbv m‡½ cÖvq 2050wU bxP †_‡K Dci (bottom-up) ch©v‡jvPbv cÖ Íve K‡i‡Q Kve©‡bi cÖK…Z A_ev AšÍM©Z g~j¨ 20 †_‡K 50 BDGm Wjvi/Ub (CO2 mgZ~j¨) ch©v‡q K‡qK `kK Ae¨nZ _vK‡j, ev e„w× †c‡j 2050 mvj bvMv` Zv kw³ Drcv`b Lv‡Z ¯í wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gbKvix (low-GHG emissions) kw³ Drcv`‡b we‡kl f~wgKv ivL‡e Ges cÖvwšÍK †m±‡ii (end-use sectors) A‡bK wbM©gb n«vm cš’v‡K A_©‰bwZKfv‡e AvKl©Yxq K‡i Zzj‡Z cv‡i| [4.4,11.6]| ● wbM©gb n«vmKvix cš’v¸‡jvi ev Íevq‡bi †¶‡Î eûwea evav i‡q‡Q Ges †`k I LvZ Abyhvqx Zv wfbœ wfbœ n‡q _v‡K| G ¸wj A_©‡bwZK, cÖhyw³MZ, cÖvwZôvwbK Ges AvPiYMZ †¶‡µi m‡½ m¤úwK©Z n‡Z cv‡i [ 4.5, 5.5, 6.7, 7.6, 8.6, 9.6, 1.5]|


22

†Uwej SPM 7: ¯^ ¯ Lv‡Z AšÍZ GKwU RvZxq wel‡q cwi‡ekMZ Kvh©KvixZv ‡`Lv‡Z m¶g n‡q‡Q GiKg wbe©vwPZ K‡qKwU †m±‡ii bxwZgvjv, D‡`¨vM (measures) Ges c×wZ wb‡Pi †Uwe‡j †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q|

†¶Î bxwZgvjv (a), D‡`¨vM Ges gva¨gmg~n hv cwi‡ekMZfv‡e Kvh©Kix we‡ewPZ n‡q‡Q

cÖavb evav A_ev my‡hvM mgyn

kw³ mieivn [4.5]

Rxevk¥ R¡vjvwb Lv‡Z fZ©ywK Kgv‡bv Rxevk¥ R¡vjvwbi Dci Ki A_ev Kve©b gvïj bevqb‡hvM¨ kw³ Drcv`K cÖhyw³i Rb¨ Av‡ivwcZ ïé (feed-in tariffs) bevqb‡hvM¨ kw³ eva¨Zvg~jK Kiv Drcv`K‡ì fZz©wK cÖ`vb

Kv‡qwg ¯^v‡_©i (vested interests) evavi Kvi‡Y ev ÍevqbKiv KwVb n‡q c‡o‡Q| ¯^í wbM©gb K‡i Ggb cÖhyw³i evRvi m„wói Rb¨ Dc‡hvMx n‡Z cv‡i|

‡hvMv‡hvM [5.5]

moK †hvMv‡hv‡Mi Rb¨ R¡vjvwb mvkªq, ‰Re R¡vjvwbi wgkªY (blending) Ges CO2 Gi gvb wbqš¿Y

hvbevnb eni‡K AvswkK AvIZvq Avbvi Kvi‡Y Zv mvdi¨‡K mxgve× Ki‡Z cv‡i|

hvbevnb µq, wbeÜxKiY, eënvi Ges hvbevnb R¡vjvwb, moK Ges hvbevnb cvwK©s Gi Dci Ki mgyn

D”P Av‡qi m‡½ Kvh©`¶Zv K‡g †h‡Z cv‡i|

f~wg eënv‡ii wbqg Ges AeKvVv‡gvMZ cwiKíbvi gva¨‡g MwZkxjZv e„w× AvK©l©Yxq MY‡hvMv‡hvM †mev Lv‡Z Ges Ahvwš¿K †hvMv‡hvM eë¯’vq wewb‡qvM

†hme †`k Zv‡ì †hvMv‡hvM eë¯’v M‡o Zzj‡Q Zv‡ì †¶‡Î GUv we‡klfv‡e Dc‡hvMx|

Avevmb I wbg©vY (buildings) [6.8]

c‡Yï gvb Ges wRwb‡mi Mv‡q †j‡ej mshy³KiY Avevmb I wbg©vY bxwZgvjv Ges mb` cÖ`vb Pvwn`v-wfwËK eë¯’vcbv Kg©m~wP miKvwi Lv‡Zi †bZ„‡Z¡ µqmn Ab¨vb¨ Kg©m~wP kw³ mieivnKvix ms¯’vmg~n‡K mnvqZv `vb (ESCOs)

wbw`©ó mg‡qi eëav‡b cY¨ gvb wewa ms‡kvab Kiv cÖ‡qvRb bZzb Avevm‡bi Rb¨ AvKl©Yxq| Kvh©Ki Kiv KwVb n‡Z cv‡i jvfRbK eënv‡ii Rb¨ wbqg Kiv cÖ‡qvRb kw³ eënv‡i `¶Zv m¤úbœ `ª‡eï Rb¨ miKvwi µq Pvwn`v e„w× †c‡Z cv‡i| mdj¨RbK: Z…Zxq c‡¶i A_©vh‡bi my‡hvM

wkí KviLvbv [7.9]

wÒwb‡`©kK Z_¨ cÖvwßi eë ’v Kvh©KvwiZvi (Performance) gvb fZ©ywK, Ki †µwWU (tax credits)

cÖhyw³ Dbœq‡b mnvqZv`v‡b Dc‡hvMx n‡Z cv‡i| AvšÍR©vwZK cÖwZ‡hvwMZvi we‡ePbvq RvZxq bxwZgvjvi ¯’vwqZ¡ ¸iæZ¡c~Y©

eëmv Dc‡hvMx Aby‡gv`b (tradable permits)

wewb‡qv‡Mi Rb¨ Aby‡gq eÈb ‡KŠkj (predictable allocation mechanisms ) Ges w¯’i g~j¨m~PK ¸iæZ¡c~Y©

†¯^”Qv‡mev g~jK Pzw³

mvdj¨ jv‡fi welq¸wji g‡a¨: my¯úó j¶¨, GKwU ‡emjvBb `„k¨Kí, Z…Zxq c‡¶i wewb‡qvM cwiKíbv Ges ch©v‡jvPbv Ges AvbyôvwbK gwbUwis Gi eë¯’v, miKvi Ges wkí KviLvbvi g‡a¨ wbweo mn‡hvMxZv AšÍ©f~³ i‡q‡Q|

K…wl [8.6,8.7,8.8]

Rwg eë ’vcbv Dbœq‡b A_©‰bwZK mnvqZv I wewa, f~-Kve©b w¯’wZ a‡i ivLv, mvi Ges †mP Gi h_vh_ eënvi

ev¯Íevq‡bi evav AwZµg Ki‡Z †UKmB Dbœqb Ges Rjevqy cwieZ©bRwbZ SzuwK n«v‡mi g‡a¨ mgš^q (synergy) mvab‡K DrmvnxZ Ki‡Z cv‡i

ebR/eb [9.6]

ebvÂj e„w×, ebDRvo n«vm Ges eb eë¯’vcbvi Rb¨ A_©‡bwZK mnvqZv ( RvZxq I AvšÍR©vwZK †¶‡Î) cÖ`vb

wewb‡qvM g~ja‡bi (investment capital) míZv Ges Rwg †fvM`L‡ji Bmy¨mgyn G †¶‡Î evav n‡Z cv‡i| `vwi`ª we‡gvP‡b mnvqK n‡Z cv‡i Rwg eënv‡ii weavb Ges Kvh©KixKiY

eR¨© eë¯’vcbv [10.5]

eR©¨ Ges eR ©cvwb eë¯’vcbv Dbœq‡b A_©‰bwZK mnvqZv cÖhyw³i cÖmvi‡K mnvqZv Ki‡Z cv‡i bevqb‡hvM¨ kw³ eënv‡i mnvqZv ev AvBbMZ evaëvaKZv

¯^í-e¨qhy³ R¡vjvwbi ¯’vbxq mnRjf¨Zv

eR©¨ e¨ ’vcbv wewa evaëvaKZvi †KŠkj Aej¤^b K‡i RvZxq ch©v‡q LyeB Kvh©Kifv‡e eëüZ

‡bvU: K) ¯í wbM©gb cÖhyw³‡Z ivóªxq M‡elYv, Dbœqb I ev¯Íe cÖwk¶Y (RD&D) wewb‡qvM mKj Lv‡Z Kvh©Ki e‡j cÖgvwbZ n‡q‡Q|

24. A_©‰bwZK mn‡hvwMZv, Ki †µwWU (tax credits), gvb wba©viY Ges evRvi m„wói gva¨‡g Kvh©Ki cÖhyw³i Dbœqb, D™¢veb I cÖmv‡ii Rb¨ miKvwi mn‡hvwMZv ¸iæZ¡c~Y©| Dbœqbkxj †`k¸wj‡Z cÖhyw³i n¯’všÍi BwZevPK Ae¯’v I A_©vq‡bi Dci wbf©i K‡i (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY)|

● M‡elYv, Dbœqb I ev Íe cÖwk¶‡Y (RD&D) ivóªxq wewb‡qv‡Mi mydj e¨w³gvwjKvbvaxb Lv‡Zi AwR©Z myd‡ji

Zzjbvq †ewk, hv GB Lv‡Z ivóªxq mn‡hvwMZvi †hŠw³KZv cÖgvY K‡i| ● AwaKvsk kw³ mswkøó M‡elYv Kg©m~wP‡Z (energy

research programmes) MZ cÖvq yÕ`kK a‡i miKvwi e¨q cÖK…Zfv‡e (real absolute terms) GKB i‡q‡Q ev n«vm †c‡q‡Q (GgbwK BDGbGdwmwmwm mwµq nIqvi ciI) Ges GB e¨q GLb 1980 mv‡ji ¯Í‡ii cÖvq A‡a©‡K †b‡g G‡m‡Q [2.7, 3.4, 11.5, 13.2]|


23

● wewb‡qvM cÖevn‡K Ae¨vnZ ivL‡Z Ges Kvh©Kix cÖhyw³ n ÍvšÍ‡ii Rb¨ Dchy³ mnvqK cwi‡ek‡K M‡o Zzj‡Z miKv‡ii AZ¨š‘ ¸iæZ¡c~Y© f~wgKv i‡q‡Q, hv cÖvwZôvwbKfv‡e, bxwZMZ †¶‡Î, AvBbx Ges wbqg KvVv‡gvi31 gva¨‡g cvjb Kiv m¤¢e| GB f~wgKv cvjb e¨vwZ‡i‡K wbM©gb n«vm‡K D‡jø-L‡hvM¨ gvÎvq AR©b Kiv KwVb n‡Z cv‡i| ¯í Kve©b wbf©i cÖhyw³i ch©vqµwgK e¨q e„w×i (incremental costs) ev ÍeZvq A_© msMÖn LyeB ¸iæZ¡c~Y©| AvšÍR©vwZK cÖhyw³MZ Pzw³mgyn ÁvbwfwËK AeKvVv‡gv‡K (knowledge infrastructure) kw³kvjx Ki‡Z mnvqK n‡Z cv‡i [13.3]| ● G¨‡b·Ñ1 Gi †`k¸‡jvi Øviv Dbœqbkxj †`k ¸‡jv‡Z cÖhyw³ ¯’vbvšÍi djkÖƒwZ‡Z h‡_ó BwZevPK cÖfve co‡e e‡j Avkv Kiv hvq wKš‘ Gi †Kvb wbf©i‡hvM¨ wnmve †bB| [11.7].

● wK¬b †W‡fvjc‡g›U †gKvwbRg (CDM) cÖK‡íi gva¨‡g †h A_© Dbœqbkxj †`k¸‡jv‡Z Avm‡e Zv cÖwZ eQi 32 nvRvi nvRvi wewjqb BDGm Wjv‡ii ch©v‡q DbœxZ n‡Z cv‡i| hv Global Envirnomental Facility (GEF)Õi gva¨‡g AvMZ A_© ev kw³ msµvšÍDbœqb mvnv‡qï (energy oriented development assistance flows) Zzjbvq †ekx| wKš‘ G A_© ‡gvU cÖZ¨¶ ‰e‡`wkK wewb‡qvM cÖev‡ni (than total foreign direct investment flows) Zzjbvq cwigvYMZfv‡e Kg n‡e| Aek¨ CDM, GEF Ges cÖhyw³ ’vbvšÍ‡ii Rb¨ AvMZ Avw_©K cÖevn h‡_ó mxwgZ Ges †fŠ‡MvwjKfv‡e Amgfv‡e ewÈZ [12.3, 13.3]|

25. BDGbGdwmwmwm Ges wK‡qv‡Uv cÖ‡UvK‡ji D‡jøL‡hvM¨ mvdj¨ n‡”Q Rjevqy mgm¨vi cÖwZ wek¦ Ry‡o mvov m„wó, RvZxq bxwZgvjv¸wj‡K GKwÎZ (an array) Ki‡Z AbycÖvwYZ Kiv, AvšÍR©vwZK Kve©b evRvi m„wó Ges fwel¨‡Zi wbM©gb n«vm D‡`¨vM‡K GKwU wfwËi Dci cÖwZwóZ Ki‡Z mnvqK GKwU bZzb cÖvwZôvwbK cÖwµqv‡K cÖwZôv Kiv (D”P ¯^xKvh©, ch©vß Z_¨Øviv mgw_©Z)| ● êwk¦K wbM©gb m¤ú‡K© wK‡qv‡Uv cÖ‡UvK‡ji cÖ_g A½xKvi ch©v‡qi (first commitment period) djvdj mxwgZ nIqvi m¤¢vebv Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q (projected to be limited)| GB cÖ‡UvK‡ji AvIZvaxb G¨‡b·Ñwe †`k¸wji †¶‡Î †h A_©‡bwZK cÖfvi cwijw¶Z nq Zv TAR ÕG Dc¯’vwcZ

cÖfv‡ei Zzjbvq Kg| TARÕG G¨‡b·Ñwe †`k¸wji †¶‡Î wbM©gb evwYR¨ Qvov 2012 mv‡j wRwWwc 0.2Ñ2% Kg n‡e Ges G¨‡b·Ñwe †`k¸wji g‡a¨ wbM©gb evwYR¨ n‡j wRwWwc gvÎ 0.1Ñ1.1% Kg n‡e e‡j †`Lv‡bv n‡qwQj| [1.4, 11.4, 13.3].

26.M‡elYvmg~n ‰ewk¦K wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb n«vm AR©‡b m¶g Ggb A‡bK cš’v‡K (options) wPwýZ K‡i‡Q, hv AvšÍR©vwZK ch©v‡q cvi¯úwiK mn‡hvwMZvi gva¨‡g AwR©Z n‡Z cv‡i| G mKj M‡elYv GUvI D‡jøL K‡i‡Q †h, mdj Pzw³¸‡jv cwi‡ekMZ fv‡e Kvh©Kix, gyj¨ mvkªqx Ges n¯’všÍi‡hvM¨Zv I mgZv‡K ¸iZ¡ †`q Ges cÖvwZôvwbKfv‡eI KvqKvix (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY)| ● wbM©gb n«vmKi‡Yi Rb¨ †h e„nËi GKwÎZ cÖ‡Póv¸wj wba©vwiZ ch©v‡qi wbM©gb n«vm AR©‡b êwk¦K e¨q n«v‡m mnvqZv Ki‡e ev cwi‡ekMZ Kvh©KvixZviDbœqb NUv‡e| [13.3].

● evRviwfwËK cš’vi (market mechanisms) Dbœqb I cÖmvi (†hgb wbM©gb evwYR¨, †hŠ_ cÖ‡qvM Ges CDM) cÖwµqvq mvgvwMÖKfv‡e wbM©gb n«vm Ki‡Yi e¨q Kgv‡Z cv‡i| ● Rjevqy cwieZ©b ‡gvKv‡ejvi D‡`¨vM¸wji g‡a¨ wewfbœ Dcv`vb AšÍ©f~³ n‡Z cv‡i, †hgbÑwbM©gb j¶¨gvÎv, wewfbœ †m±i, ’vbxq I subnational I AvÂwjK Kvh©µg, M‡elYv, Dbœqb I ev¯Íe cÖwk¶Y (RD&D) Kvh©µg, mvaviY bxwZgvjv MÖnY (adopting common policies), DbœqbgyLx Kvh©µg ev¯Íevqb A_ev A_©‰bwZK gva¨g¸wj we Í…ZKiY| GB Dcv`vb¸wj mgwšZ Kvq`vq (an integrated fashion) ev¯Íevqb Kiv hvq; wKš‘ G †¶‡Î wewfbœ †`‡ki M„nxZ D‡`¨vM mgyn‡K msL¨vMZfv‡e Zzjbv Ki‡j Zv RwUj I m¤ú` wbweo n‡e (would be complex and resource intensive)| [13.3].

● AskMÖnYKvix †`k¸wj †h mKj Kvh©µg MÖnY Ki‡Z cv‡i †m¸wj‡K KLb G RvZxq Kvh©µg MÖnY Kiv n‡”Q, †K AskMÖnY K‡i‡Q Ges Kvh©µg ¸wj wK n‡e- Zvi Dci wbf©i K‡i c„_K Kiv hvq| Kvh©µg¸wj wba©vwiZ (fixed) A_ev cwieZ©bkxj (dynamic) j¶¨gvÎvi wfwË‡Z eva¨Zvg~jK (binding) A_ev eva¨Zvg~jK bq (non-binding) Ges AskMÖnY w¯’i (static) A_ev mg‡qi m‡½ cwieZ©bkxj (vary over time) Ggb n‡Z cv‡i|[13.3]

31. cÖhyw³ n¯’všÍ‡ii †¶‡Î cÖhyw³ n¯’všÍ‡ii c×wZ Ges cÖhyw³MZ Bmy¨ m¤úwK©Z IPCC Õi we‡kl cÖwZ‡e`b `ªóe¨|

32 GwU we‡klfv‡e evRvi g~‡jï Dci ( hv 4 †_‡K 26 BDGm Wjvi/Ub CO2 mgZ~j¨ Gi g‡a¨ IVvbvgv Ki‡Q) Ges cÖvq 1000 cÖ¯ÍvweZ I †iwRw÷ªK…Z CDM cÖK‡íi Dci wbf©ikxj| GB mKj cÖKí 2012 mv‡ji c~‡e©B 1.3 wewjqb wbM©gb n«vm AR©b (emission reduction credits) m„wó Ki‡e e‡j Avkv Kiv n‡”Q|


24

P) †UKmB Dbœqb Ges Rjevqy cwieZ©b cÖkgb (F. Sustainable development and climate change mitigation) 27. Dbœqb Gi aviv (development paths) cwieZ©‡bi gva¨‡g Dbœqb‡K A‡bK †ekx †UKmB Kiv Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi ZxeªZv n«v‡mi †¶‡Î cÖavb f~wgKv ivL‡Z cv‡i| wKš‘ G j¶¨ ev¯Íevq‡bi eûwea evav AwZµg Ki‡Z m¤ú‡ì cÖ‡qvRb| wewfbœ Lv‡Z ZxeªZv n«v‡mi wewfbœ weKí¸‡jv cQ›` Kiv I ev¯Íevqb Kivi †¶‡Î HK¨m~Î‡K Abyaveb (realize synergies) Ges †UKmB Dbœq‡bi Ab¨ my‡hvM¸wji (dimensions) m‡½ we‡iva Gov‡bvi m¤¢vebv‡K ‡evSvi AvMÖn e„w× cv‡”Q (D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY)| ● †h †Kvb gvÎv‡ZB wbM©gb ev ZxeªZv n«v‡mi D‡`¨vM MÖnY Kiv †nvK bv †Kb (Irrespective of the scale of mitigation

measures), Awf‡hvRb cÖwµqv D‡`¨vM Acwinvh© [1.2]. ● Rjevqy cwieZ©b ‡gvKv‡ejvi D‡`¨vM‡K †UKmB Dbœq‡bi GKwU AZ¨vek¨K Dcv`vb wn‡m‡e ¸iæZ¡ †Ìqv nq| wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©g‡bi Dci Dbœqb bxwZgvjv wKfv‡e cÖfve †dj‡e Zv RvZxq cvwicvwk¦©KZv (circumstances) Ges cªwZôvwbK m¶gZvi wfwË‡Z wba©vwiZ nq| Dbœqb avivq cwieZ©b G‡m‡Q ivóªxq I †emiKvix mx×všÍ MÖnY cÖwK„qvi wg_w¯Œqvi ga¨ w`‡q, hvi g‡a¨ miKvi eëmvqx Ges wmwfj †mvmvBwUi g‡Zv Ggb A‡bK Ask AšÍf~©³ i‡q‡Q hviv Rjevqy bxwZgvjv‡K we‡ePbvq ivL‡Z Af¨¯Í bq| GB cš’v me‡P‡q †ekx Kvh©Kix nq ZLb hLb GB cÖwµqvq AskMÖnYKvixiv mgvb f~wgKv cvjb Ges wm×všÍ MÖn‡Yi we‡K› ªxK…Z cÖwµqvi g‡a¨ mgbœq _v‡K|[2.2, 3.3, 12.2]

● Rjevqy cwieZ©b Ges Ab¨vb¨ †UKmB Dbœqb bxwZmg~n cÖvqB GKB cÖK…wZi nq, Z‡e Zv me mgq bq| D`vniY wn‡m‡e ejv hvq mvgwóK A_©bxwZ bxwZgvjv, K…wl bxwZgvjv, eûcw¶K Dbœqb e¨vsK FY (multilateral development bank lending), exgv Kvh©µg, we y¨r wecbb cybt MVb, kw³i wbivcËv Ges eb msi¶Y BZ¨vw` Kvh©µg hv wbM©gb n«v‡m ¸iæZ¡c~Y© f~wgKv ivL‡Z cv‡i, †m¸wj‡K Rjevhy bxwZgvjvi †_‡K c„_K K‡i †`Lv nq e‡j mv¤cÖwZK mg‡q cÖgvY cvIqv hv‡”Q| Ab¨w`‡K MÖvgvÂj‡K we y¨Zvq‡bi AvIZvq Avbq‡bi wm×všÍ ‰ewk¦K wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb‡K Lye GKUv cÖfvweZ Ki‡ebv|[12.2]. ● Rjevqy cwieZ©bRwbZ bxwZgvjvi m‡½ kw³ eënv‡ii `¶Zv Ges bevqb‡hvM¨ kw³‡K m¤úwK©Z Kiv memgqB A_©‰bwZKfv‡e jvfRbK, hv Avevi kw³ wbivcËv e„w× K‡i Ges ¯’vbxq ~lYKvix wbM©gb (local pollutant emissions) n«vm K‡i| kw³ mieiv‡ni Ab¨vb¨ cÖkgbKvix weKí¸wj (Other energy supply mitigation options) Ggbfv‡e cÖbqb Kiv hvq hv‡Z K‡i ¯’vbxq RbM‡Yi ¯’vbvšÍi Gwo‡q hvIqv (displacement of local populations), Kg©ms¯’vb ˆZwi Ges ¯^v¯’¨ MZ mydj AR©b Kiv hvq|[4.5,12.3]. ● cÖvK…wZK cwi‡e‡ki (natural habitat) Ges ebDRvo GB Dfq Gi Øviv msMwVZ ¶wZ n«vm Kiv †M‡j GKw`‡K †hgb Rxe‰ewPÎ¨, gvwU I cvwb msi¶‡Yi myweav D‡jøL‡hvM¨ cwigv‡Y cvIqv †h‡Z cv‡i Ges mvgvwRK I A_©‰bwZKfv‡e †UKmB Dcv‡q Zv ev¯Íevqb Kiv †h‡Z cv‡i| ebvqb I ˆRekw³ Avev‡ì (bioenergy plantations) gva¨‡g cwZZ Rwg cybiæ×vi, cvwb cÖev‡ni eë ’vcbv (manage water runoff), gvwUi Kve©b a‡i ivLv Ges MÖvgxY A_©bxwZ‡Z mydj Avm‡Z cvi| wKš‘ wVKg‡Zv cwiKíbv Kiv bv n‡j, Zv Lv`¨ Drcv`‡bi Rb¨ f~wg Pvwn`vi cÖwZ‡hvMx n‡Z cv‡i Ges Rxe êwP‡Îï Dci †bwZevPK cÖfve co‡Z cv‡i|[9.7, 12.3]. ● eR©¨ eë¯’vcbv, †hvMv‡hvM Ges wbg©vYLv‡Z wbM©gb n«vmKi‡Yi gva¨‡g †UKmB Dbœqb‡K kw³kvjx Kivi Lye fv‡jv m¤¢vebv i‡q‡Q [5.4, 6.6, 10.5, 12.3]| ● Dbœqb‡K †UKmB Kivi gva¨‡g wbM©gb n«vm Ges Awf‡hvRb (mitigative and adaptive capacity) Df‡qiB mvg_ © e„w× Kiv hvq, wbM©gb n«vm K‡i I Rjevqy cwieZ©bRwbZ SzuwK n«vm K‡i| cwiKwíZ ev‡qvgvm (Biomass) Drcv`b, msiw¶Z GivKv MVb, f~wg eë ’vcbv, wbg©vY Ges ebvqb Lv‡Z kw³i eënvi cÖf„wZ †¶‡Î ZxeªZv n«vm Ges Awf‡hvR‡bi g‡a¨ mgšq M‡o DV‡Z cv‡i| Ab¨ cwi‡cÖw¶‡Z, †hgb Awf‡hvR‡bi m‡½ mswkøó kw³i eënvi e„w×i d‡j (increased consumption of energy related to adaptive responses) wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©gb e„w× evwYR¨ n«vm (trade-offs) Ki‡Z cv‡i| [2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 6.9, 7.8, 8.5, 9.5, 11.9, 12.1]

Q) Áv‡bi Ach©ßZv (Gaps in knowledge): Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi ZxeªZv n«vmKi‡Yi †¶‡Î, we‡klK‡i Dbœqbkxj †`k¸wj‡Z eZ©gv‡b mnRjf¨ Áv‡bi (available knowledge) †¶‡Î GLb ch©šÍAch©ßZv (still relevant gaps) i‡q‡Q| GB Áv‡bi Ach©ßZv c~i‡Y AviI M‡elYv (additional research addressing those gaps) AwbwðqZv‡K n«vm K‡i Ges Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi ZxeªZv n«vmKi‡Yi †¶‡Î wm×všÍMÖnY‡K mnR mva¨ K‡i| [TS 14]|


25

33. GB cÖwZ‡e`‡b ÒZ_¨-cªgvbÓ (“Evidence”) †K: GKwU wek¦vm ev cÖ¯Íve mZ¨ A_ev Kvh©Kix wKbv Zvi wb‡ ©kK Z_¨ A_ev cÖZxK wn‡m‡e msÁvwqZ Kiv n‡q‡Q | (See Glossary)

cwi‡kl e· 1: AwbðqZvi weeiY (Endbox 1: Uncertainty representation)

†h ‡Kvb M‡elYvi †¶‡Î AwbðqZv GKwU AšÍ©MZ welq| GB PZz_© G¨‡mm‡g›U wi‡cvU© (AR4) cÖ‡qvRbxq Z_¨ Dc¯’vc‡bi gva¨‡g GB AwbðqZv mg~‡ni e¨vL¨v w`‡q‡Q| †gŠwjKfv‡e c„_K weÁv‡bi kvLvq Ae¯’vbKvix nIqvq wZbwU Kvh©iZ `‡ji (Working Group) cÖwZ‡e`b¸wji c‡¶ GKwU mvaviY e³e¨ (common approach) Dc ’vcb Kiv m¤¢e nqwb| cÖkgb ev ZxeªZv n«vmKi‡Yi (mitigation) GB cÖwZ‡e`‡b gvby‡li cQ›` mgyn‡K AšÍ©f~³ (human choices) Kivq- ÒRjevqy cwieZ©b 2007: †fŠZ weÁvb wfwËKÓ (WG I report) Gi †h ÔÔm¤¢vebvÕÕ (“likelihood”) aviYv (approach) eënvi Kiv n‡qwQj Ges ÒRjevqy cwieZ©b 2007: cÖfve, Awf‡hvRb I SzuwKÓ(WG II report) G eëüZ ÒAv¯’vkxjZvÓ (“confidence”) Ges ÔÔm¤¢vebvÕÕ (“likelihood”) aviYv mg~n GB ZxeªZv n«vmKiY (mitigation) cÖwZ‡e`‡bi AšÍ©MZ wbw ©ó AwbðqZv‡K (specific uncertainties) Abyave‡b h_vh_ e‡j we‡ewPZ nqwb| GB cÖwZ‡e`‡b AwbðqZv Abyave‡bi Rb¨ wØ-gvwÎK gvb`Ð eëüZ n‡q‡Q| gvb`Ð yÕwU GB cÖwZ‡e`‡bi (WGIII) †Kvb wbw`©ó wel‡q (particular finding) iPwqZv‡ì we‡klÁ we‡ePbvi (expert judgment) ¯xKvh© ev HK¨g‡Zi ch©v‡qi wfwË‡Z (level of concurrence) Ges GB wel‡qi wfwË wn‡m‡e cwiMwYZ IPCCÕi wbqg gvb¨Kvix (qualifying under the IPCC rules) ¯vaxb Drmmg~‡ni (number and quality of independent sources) msL¨v I gv‡bi Dci wfwË K‡i (Z_¨-cÖgv‡bi cwigvY33) [†Uwej SPM.E.1 ªóe¨]| GwU cwigvYMZ c×wZ (quantitative approach) bq hv †_‡K AwbðqZvi mv‡_ m¤úwK©Z m¤¢vebv mg~n cvIqv hvq| †Uwej SPM.E.1: AwbðqZvi ¸YMZ msÁv (Table SPM.E.1: Qualitative definition of uncertainty)

D”P ¯^xKvh©, mxwgZ cÖgvY (High agreement, limited

evidence)

D”P ¯^xKvh©, gvSvwi cÖgvY (High agreement,

medium evidence )

D”P ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY (High agreement, much evidence )

ga¨g ¯xKvh©, mxwgZ cÖgvY (Medium agreement,

limited evidence)

ga¨g ¯^xKvh©, gvSvwi cÖgvY Medium agreement,

medium evidence

ga¨g ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY (Medium agreement,

much evidence)

¯^í ¯^xKvh©, mxwgZ cÖgvY (Low agreement, limited

evidence

¯^í ¯^xKvh©, gvSvwi cÖgvY (Low agreement,

medium evidence)

¯^í ¯^xKvh©, cÖPzi cÖgvY (Low agreement, much

evidence)

cÖgv‡bi cwigvY 33 (¯vaxb Drmmg~‡ni msL¨v Ges gvb) ®

fwel¨Z ¯^vfvweKfv‡e AwbwðZ nIqvq „k¨Kímg~n (scenarios), hv AšÍM©Zfv‡e m½wZc~Y© wewfbœ fwel¨‡Zi wewfbœ cÖwZiƒc (images) Ñ wKš‘ Zv fwel¨‡Zi Abygvb (predictions) bq Ñ GB cÖwZ‡e`‡b e¨vcKfv‡e eëüZ n‡q‡Q|

¯^xKvh© /HKg‡Zï ch©vq (GKwU wbw`©ó ch©‡e¶‡Yi †¶‡Î)


gvÎvwZwi³ wMÖbnvDm M¨vm wbM©g‡bi Kvi‡Y m~wPZ ‰ewk¦K Dòvq‡bi cÖfv‡e we‡k¦i Ab¨vb¨ ¯’v‡bi g‡Zv evsjv‡`‡ki AvengvbKv‡ji RjevqyI cv‡ë hv‡”Q| Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi GB cÖwZwµqvq evsjv‡`‡k kxZFZzi ˆ`N©¨ K‡g hv‡”Q, wKš‘ kx‡Zi cÖ‡Kvc evo‡e| MÖx®§ FZz‡Z ZvcgvÎv Av‡Mi Zzjbvq e„w× cv‡Q, evo‡Q `ve`v‡ni cÖ‡Kvc| ZvcgvÎv e„w× cvIqvq el©vFZz‡Z e„wócv‡Zi cwigvY †e‡o hv‡”Q| d‡j Nb Nb eb¨vi Avk¼v †`Lv w`‡”Q| wKš‘ D‡ëv w`‡K kxZKv‡j e„wócvZ K‡g hvIqvq gvP©-GwcÖj gv‡m Livi we¯Ívi NUvi Avk¼v †`Lv w`‡”Q| GKB m‡½ mgy`ª c„‡ôi D”PZv e„w×i Kvi‡Y DcK~jeZx© A‡bK GjvKv †hgb mgy‡`ª wbgw¾Z n‡e, †Zgwb jeYv³Zv, N~wY©So I R‡jv”Q¡v‡mi cÖ‡Kvc Av‡iv Zxeª n‡e| me wgwj‡q AvMvgx‡Z evsjv‡`k wbqwgZ cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©v‡Mi †`‡k cwiYZ nIqvi Avk¼v †`Lv w`‡q‡Q| G †`‡ki cvwb m¤ú`, DcK~jxq AÂj, K…wl e¨e¯’v, Avevmb, A_©‰bwZK cÖe„w×, Rb¯^v¯’¨ cÖf„wZi Dci Rjevhy cwieZ©b gvivZ¥K †bwZevPK cÖwZwµqv ˆZwi Ki‡e| Ggb GKwU †cÖÿvc‡U Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi SuywK †gvKv‡ejvq e¨vcK RbMY‡K m‡PZb K‡i †Zvjv, Awf‡hvRb †KŠkj¸wj‡K RbwcÖq K‡i Zzj‡Z gvV ch©v‡q D‡`¨vM MÖnY, miKvwi-†emiKvwi gn‡ji m‡PZbZv e„w× Ges GB Bmy¨‡Z RvZxq I AvšÍR©vwZK ch©v‡q HK¨e×fv‡e Kvh©Kwi f~wgKvq AeZxY© n‡Z GKwU RvZxq-AvÂwjK †bUIqvK© M‡o ‡Zvjvi j‡ÿ¨ Ô†bUIqvK© Ab K¬vB‡gU †PÄ, evsjv‡`kÕi Rb¥| wZbwU †emiKvwi †¯^”Qv‡mex ms¯’v- weBD‡K (ewikvj), be‡jvK (Lyjbv) I cÖ`xcb (Lyjbv)Õi D‡`¨v‡M GB †bUIqvK© M‡o I‡V| Rvgvwb©i `vZv ms¯’v †eªW di `¨v Iqv‡ì©Õi Avw_©K mn‡hvwMZvq eZ©gv‡b GB †bUIqvK©, ÔK¨v‡¤úBb Ab K¬vB‡gU †PÄ, evsjv‡`k (wmwmwm,we)Õ cÖKí ev¯Íevqb Ki‡Q|

NCC,B †m‡µUvwi‡qUcÖ`xcb, 6/1G, eøK-Gd, jvjgvwUqv, XvKv-1207

B-†gj: [email protected]‡qe mvBU: www.nccbd.org

†hvMv‡hv‡Mi wVKvbv

†bUIqvK© Ab K¬vB‡gU †PÄ, evsjv‡`k (NCC,B)


Climate Change 2007: Mitigation_Summary for Policymakers, Bangla transletion

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