Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) - Moneycontrol

January 31, 2022 1

Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs3,535 | TP: Rs4,139

New launches, share gain infuse confidence; Upgrade to BUY

Quick Pointers:

YTD inflation at 20% and QoQ at 4%, incremental price hike of 4-5% likely in

1Q23, if input cost pressure sustains

3Q volume up c.5% YoY, despite 4-5% impact due to grammage reduction

Rural distribution and product initiatives defeat slowdown with 2x share gain

We upgrade BRIT to BUY (accumulate earlier) even as we cut FY22/23/24 EPS

estimates by 1.6%/4.2%/2.6%. This follows as 10% price increase (by 4Q end)

might not be sufficient to fully pass on +20% input cost inflation. Although

worst seems over, margin recovery might extend beyond 4Q22. We believe

growth outlook has improved given 5% 3Q volume growth in a challenging

scenario (4-5% impact of grammage reduction in 65% of portfolio) and

success of new launches like Potazos, Bilk Bikis (Atta), Layered cake,

Chocolush, Goodday re-launch and higher probability of pan India launch of

Treat Croissant.

Long term growth drivers are sustaining momentum with 1) 26k rural

preferred dealers 2) 2.19mn direct reach 3) 1.3x growth in focus states 4) 2x

share gain in rural India v/s urban 5) sustained gains from cost efficiency

program in Manufacturing, distribution and procurement and 6) Improved

visibility of salability in Dairy, salted snacks, croissants etc. We estimate

12.1% CAGR in sales and 20.6% CAGR in PAT over FY22-24 on margin

recovery from current lows. We roll over to 46xDec23 EPS thereby arriving at

a target price of Rs4,139 (Rs4093 based on 46xSept23 earlier) as ROE/ROCE

and Dividend payout of 58%, 53% and +80% provide support. Upgrade to Buy.

Concall Takeaways: 1) Sustained market share gains. Delta between #2 player

widens YTD. 2) Not witnessing any slowdown in rural with market share gains at 2x

of urban gains 3) 3Q Inflation ahead of expectations. 8% price hike taken so far to

cover only 2Q material inflation 4) ICD: At Rs5.80bn vs Rs5.05bn QoQ 5) 65% of

price increase is through grammage cuts, impacting volumes by 4-5% 6) With RM

inflation continuing in 4Q as well, margins to remain flattish. 4-5% price hikes likely

by beginning of FY23 7) Dairy unit to commercialize by 2QFY23 (Rs6.5bn capex,

procurement 60kliter/day) 8) Run rate of new products: Potazos: Rs700mn; Milk

Bikis Atta: Rs4bn; Tiger Krunch: Rs3bn. 9) ESG goals remain on track. 42% women

workforce; 60% renewable energy usage by 2024, eliminate 2mn kg, reduction of

30% in water usage, 8% in sugar, 6% in sodium.

Sales up 12.9%, estimated volumes up 5%: Consol Revenues grew 12.9% YoY

to Rs35.7bn (PLe: Rs34.5bn). GRM’s contracted 520bps YoY to 37.9% (PLe:

38.5%). EBITDA declined by 11.7% YoY to Rs5.4bn (PLe: Rs5.5bn); Margins

contracted by 420bps YoY to 15.1% (PLe:15.8%) mainly on account of GRM

contraction. PBT declined by 17.4% YoY to Rs5.1bn (PLe: Rs5.2bn). Adjusted PAT

declined by 18.1% YoY to Rs3.7bn (PLe: Rs3.9bn).

Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)

January 31, 2022

Q3FY22 Result Update

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco

Change in Estimates

Current Previous

FY23E FY24E FY23E FY24E

Rating BUY ACCUMULATE

Target Price 4,139 4,093

Sales (Rs. m) 159,375 177,560 156,991 174,893

% Chng. 1.5 1.5

EBITDA (Rs. m) 26,548 31,288 27,356 31,355

% Chng. (3.0) (0.2)

EPS (Rs.) 78.1 93.9 81.5 96.4

% Chng. (4.2) (2.6)

Key Financials - Consolidated

Y/e Mar FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

Sales (Rs. m) 131,361 141,349 159,375 177,560

EBITDA (Rs. m) 25,093 22,062 26,548 31,288

Margin (%) 19.1 15.6 16.7 17.6

PAT (Rs. m) 18,512 15,559 18,817 22,625

EPS (Rs.) 76.8 64.6 78.1 93.9

Gr. (%) 31.0 (16.0) 20.9 20.2

DPS (Rs.) 82.9 74.5 50.0 70.0

Yield (%) 2.3 2.1 1.4 2.0

RoE (%) 46.6 49.0 61.5 62.6

RoCE (%) 40.0 36.9 48.3 56.0

EV/Sales (x) 6.5 6.1 5.4 4.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 34.1 39.2 32.4 27.2

PE (x) 46.0 54.7 45.3 37.6

P/BV (x) 24.0 30.4 25.7 21.8

Key Data BRIT.BO | BRIT IN

52-W High / Low Rs.4,153 / Rs.3,305

Sensex / Nifty 58,014 / 17,340

Market Cap Rs.852bn/ $ 11,411m

Shares Outstanding 241m

3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.1004.16m

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoter’s 50.55

Foreign 17.59

Domestic Institution 11.53

Public & Others 20.33

Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -

Stock Performance (%)

1M 6M 12M

Absolute (2.0) 3.3 1.4

Relative (1.6) (6.4) (19.1)

Amnish Aggarwal

[email protected] | 91-22-66322233

Paarth Gala


Aashi Rara


Britannia Industries

January 31, 2022 2

3QFY22 Consolidated Results: Sales up 12.9%, EBITDA/ PAT declines by 11.7%/ 18.1%

Y/e March (Rs m) Q3FY22 Q3FY21 YoY gr. (%) Q2FY22 9MFY22 9MFY21 YoY gr. (%)

Net Sales 35,750 31,656 12.9 36,074 1,05,858 1,00,054 5.8

Gross Profit 13,554 13,642 (0.6) 13,531 40,254 42,429 (5.1)

Margins (%) 37.9 43.1 37.5 38.0 42.4

Other Expenses 8,157 7,527 8.4 7,947 23,736 22,391 6.0

% of Sales 22.8 23.8 22.0 22.4 22.4

EBITDA 5,397 6,115 (11.7) 5,583 16,518 20,038 (17.6)

Margins (%) 15.1 19.3 15.5 15.6 20.0

Depreciation 504 486 3.7 502 1,496 1,450 3.2

Interest 374 318 17.6 390 1,105 872

Other Income 551 826 (33.2) 534 1,690 2,497 (32.3)

PBT 5,071 6,137 (17.4) 5,226 15,607 20,213 (22.8)

Tax 1,362 1,611 (15.4) 1,410 4,214 5,304 (20.6)

Tax Rate (%) 26.9 26.2 27.0 27.0 26.2

Adjusted PAT 3,709 4,526 (18.1) 3,816 11,393 14,909 (23.6)

Source: Company, PL

Volumes growth at 5% despite 4-5% impact of grammage reduction

6.0

13.012.0

13.012.0

7.0 7.0

3.0 3.0 3.0

0.1

21.5

9.0

4.0

8.0

1.03.0

5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Q2F

Y18

Q3F

Y18

Q4F

Y18

Q1F

Y19

Q2F

Y19

Q3F

Y19

Q4F

Y19

Q1F

Y20

Q2F

Y20

Q3F

Y20

Q4F

Y20

1Q

FY

21

2Q

FY

21

3Q

FY

21

4Q

FY

21

1Q

FY

22

2Q

FY

22

3Q

FY

22

Source: Company, PL

Re-launched Good Day

Source: Company, PL


January 31, 2022 3

Continued improvement in rural distribution; direct reach potential at 30lakhs

Source: Company, PL

Over past 7 years, total cost efficiency up 5.6x

Source: Company, PL


January 31, 2022 4

BRIT continues to support brands with its marketing campaign.

Source: Company, PL

Price increases taken so far covers inflation impact till 2Q22.

Source: Company, PL


January 31, 2022 5

Overall commodities saw 4%/20% inflation in 3Q

Source: Company, PL

Other Inputs at elevated levels added to margin pressures

Source: Company, PL


January 31, 2022 6

Financials

Income Statement (Rs m)


Net Revenues 131,361 141,349 159,375 177,560

YoY gr. (%) 13.2 7.6 12.8 11.4

Cost of Goods Sold 76,261 87,319 95,584 105,058

Gross Profit 55,100 54,030 63,791 72,503

Margin (%) 41.9 38.2 40.0 40.8

Employee Cost 5,274 5,654 6,375 7,102

Other Expenses 549 495 558 604

EBITDA 25,093 22,062 26,548 31,288

YoY gr. (%) 36.1 (12.1) 20.3 17.9

Margin (%) 19.1 15.6 16.7 17.6

Depreciation and Amortization 1,979 2,191 2,428 2,670

EBIT 23,114 19,870 24,120 28,618

Margin (%) 17.6 14.1 15.1 16.1

Net Interest 1,109 1,497 1,315 1,032

Other Income 3,129 2,638 2,352 2,598

Profit Before Tax 25,134 21,011 25,157 30,184

Margin (%) 19.1 14.9 15.8 17.0

Total Tax 6,630 5,452 6,340 7,559

Effective tax rate (%) 26.4 25.9 25.2 25.0

Profit after tax 18,504 15,559 18,817 22,625

Minority interest - - - -

Share Profit from Associate 8 - - -

Adjusted PAT 18,512 15,559 18,817 22,625

YoY gr. (%) 31.2 (16.0) 20.9 20.2

Margin (%) 14.1 11.0 11.8 12.7

Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) (6) - - -

Reported PAT 18,506 15,559 18,817 22,625

YoY gr. (%) 32.8 (15.9) 20.9 20.2

Margin (%) 14.1 11.0 11.8 12.7

Other Comprehensive Income (15) - - -

Total Comprehensive Income 18,491 15,559 18,817 22,625

Equity Shares O/s (m) 241 241 241 241

EPS (Rs) 76.8 64.6 78.1 93.9

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)


Non-Current Assets

Gross Block 27,595 30,759 33,928 37,103

Tangibles 25,896 29,000 32,109 35,223

Intangibles 1,699 1,759 1,819 1,879

Acc: Dep / Amortization 9,666 11,857 14,285 16,955

Tangibles 9,411 11,593 14,012 16,673

Intangibles 255 264 273 282

Net fixed assets 17,929 18,902 19,643 20,148

Tangibles 16,485 17,407 18,097 18,550

Intangibles 1,444 1,495 1,546 1,597

Capital Work In Progress 1,165 1,515 1,865 1,615

Goodwill - - - -

Non-Current Investments 14,922 14,968 15,019 15,075

Net Deferred tax assets 10 10 11 11

Other Non-Current Assets 1,778 1,725 1,887 2,052

Current Assets

Investments 13,933 9,880 6,297 12,126

Inventories 10,915 10,765 11,522 12,377

Trade receivables 2,573 3,799 4,500 5,255

Cash & Bank Balance 2,113 1,399 1,537 1,805

Other Current Assets 1,220 1,696 1,833 2,042

Total Assets 80,088 77,755 77,352 85,817

Equity

Equity Share Capital 241 241 241 241

Other Equity 35,236 27,777 32,915 38,846

Total Networth 35,477 28,018 33,156 39,087

Non-Current Liabilities

Long Term borrowings 7,478 14,452 7,243 7,243

Provisions - - - -

Other non current liabilities - - - -

Current Liabilities

ST Debt / Current of LT Debt 13,394 9,015 8,015 7,515

Trade payables 13,148 15,403 17,112 19,149

Other current liabilities 9,601 9,816 10,711 11,636

Total Equity & Liabilities 80,088 77,755 77,352 85,817



January 31, 2022 7

Cash Flow (Rs m)

Y/e Mar FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Year

PBT 25,134 21,011 25,157 30,184

Add. Depreciation 2,272 2,191 2,428 2,670

Add. Interest 1,109 1,497 1,315 1,032

Less Financial Other Income 3,129 2,638 2,352 2,598

Add. Other (2,496) (2,578) (2,506) (2,755)

Op. profit before WC changes 26,019 22,122 26,393 31,131

Net Changes-WC 1,858 1,357 872 1,075

Direct tax (6,630) (5,452) (6,340) (7,559)

Net cash from Op. activities 21,247 18,027 20,925 24,647

Capital expenditures (2,198) (3,514) (3,519) (2,924)

Interest / Dividend Income 3,129 2,638 2,352 2,598

Others 1,134 4,053 3,583 (5,829)

Net Cash from Invt. activities 2,065 3,177 2,416 (6,155)

Issue of share cap. / premium (22,705) 5,380 4,269 (4,648)

Debt changes 5,731 2,596 (8,210) (500)

Dividend paid (4,346) (28,397) (17,947) (12,045)

Interest paid (1,109) (1,497) (1,315) (1,032)

Others - - - -

Net cash from Fin. activities (22,429) (21,918) (23,202) (18,225)

Net change in cash 883 (715) 139 267

Free Cash Flow 19,049 14,513 17,406 21,722


Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Y/e Mar Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22

Net Revenue 31,308 34,035 36,074 35,750

YoY gr. (%) 9.2 (0.5) 5.5 12.9

Raw Material Expenses 18,636 20,865 22,543 22,196

Gross Profit 12,671 13,170 13,531 13,554

Margin (%) 40.5 38.7 37.5 37.9

EBITDA 5,054 5,538 5,583 5,397

YoY gr. (%) 11.3 (22.8) (17.3) (11.7)

Margin (%) 16.1 16.3 15.5 15.1

Depreciation / Depletion 528 491 502 504

EBIT 4,526 5,047 5,082 4,893

Margin (%) 14.5 14.8 14.1 13.7

Net Interest 237 342 390 374

Other Income 632 605 534 551

Profit before Tax 4,921 5,310 5,226 5,071

Margin (%) 15.7 15.6 14.5 14.2

Total Tax 1,326 1,442 1,410 1,362

Effective tax rate (%) 26.9 27.2 27.0 26.9

Profit after Tax 3,595 3,868 3,816 3,709

Minority interest - - - -

Share Profit from Associates - - 2 (7)

Adjusted PAT 3,595 3,868 3,818 3,702

YoY gr. (%) (3.5) (28.7) (23.0) (18.2)

Margin (%) 11.5 11.4 10.6 10.4

Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) 41 30 (4) (17)

Reported PAT 3,635 3,898 3,814 3,684

YoY gr. (%) (2.9) (28.1) (22.6) (18.4)

Margin (%) 11.6 11.5 10.6 10.3

Other Comprehensive Income - - - -

Total Comprehensive Income 3,635 3,898 3,814 3,684

Avg. Shares O/s (m) 241 241 241 241

EPS (Rs) 14.9 16.1 15.9 15.4


Key Financial Metrics


Per Share(Rs)

EPS 76.8 64.6 78.1 93.9

CEPS 85.1 73.7 88.2 105.0

BVPS 147.3 116.3 137.6 162.3

FCF 79.1 60.2 72.3 90.2

DPS 82.9 74.5 50.0 70.0

Return Ratio(%)

RoCE 40.0 36.9 48.3 56.0

ROIC 36.1 29.9 34.7 39.8

RoE 46.6 49.0 61.5 62.6

Balance Sheet

Net Debt : Equity (x) 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0

Net Working Capital (Days) 1 (2) (2) (3)

Valuation(x)

PER 46.0 54.7 45.3 37.6

P/B 24.0 30.4 25.7 21.8

P/CEPS 41.6 48.0 40.1 33.7

EV/EBITDA 34.1 39.2 32.4 27.2

EV/Sales 6.5 6.1 5.4 4.8

Dividend Yield (%) 2.3 2.1 1.4 2.0



January 31, 2022 8

Price Chart Recommendation History

No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)

1 6-Jan-22 Accumulate 4,093 3,660

2 9-Nov-21 Accumulate 4,093 3,622

3 6-Oct-21 Accumulate 4,260 3,939

4 2-Aug-21 Accumulate 3,911 3,505

5 5-Jul-21 Accumulate 3,755 3,545

6 27-Apr-21 Accumulate 3,755 3,541

7 7-Apr-21 BUY 4,189 3,795

8 8-Feb-21 BUY 4,280 3,474

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. Company Name Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)

1 Asian Paints BUY 3,762 3,306

2 Avenue Supermarts Accumulate 5,345 4,731

3 Bajaj Electricals Accumulate 1,230 1,223

4 Britannia Industries Accumulate 4,093 3,660

5 Burger King India BUY 220 133

6 Colgate Palmolive Accumulate 1,733 1,394

7 Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals BUY 530 441

8 Dabur India Accumulate 647 583

9 Emami Accumulate 624 511

10 Havells India Accumulate 1,381 1,309

11 Hindustan Unilever BUY 2,900 2,262

12 ITC BUY 270 221

13 Jubilant FoodWorks Accumulate 4,109 3,638

14 Kansai Nerolac Paints BUY 707 596

15 Marico Accumulate 546 472

16 Mold-tek Packaging BUY 793 706

17 Nestle India Accumulate 18,723 19,936

18 Pidilite Industries Hold 2,491 2,461

19 Titan Company BUY 2,651 2,576

20 Titan Company BUY 2,915 2,596

21 Voltas Hold 1,200 1,250

22 Westlife Development Accumulate 603 542

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%

Accumulate : 5% to 15%

Hold : +5% to -5%

Reduce : -5% to -15%

Sell : < -15%

Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock

Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

2138

2635

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9

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19

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20

Jan

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1

Jul -

21

Jan

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2

(Rs)


January 31, 2022 9

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

(Indian Clients)

We/I, Mr. Amnish Aggarwal- MBA, CFA, Mr. Paarth Gala- B.Com, Ms. Aashi Rara- CA, B.Com Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

(US Clients)

The research analysts, with respect to each issuer and its securities covered by them in this research report, certify that: All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is or will be directly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report.

DISCLAIMER

Indian Clients

Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd, Mumbai, India (hereinafter referred to as “PL”) is engaged in the business of Stock Broking, Portfolio Manager, Depository Participant and distribution for third party financial products. PL is a subsidiary of Prabhudas Lilladher Advisory Services Pvt Ltd. which has its various subsidiaries engaged in business of commodity broking, investment banking, financial services (margin funding) and distribution of third party financial/other products, details in respect of which are available at www.plindia.com.

This document has been prepared by the Research Division of PL and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.

Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient's particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor.

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PL or its research analysts or its associates or his relatives do not have any financial interest in the subject company.

PL or its research analysts or its associates or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report.

PL or its research analysts or its associates or his relatives do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report.

PL or its associates might have received compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months.

PL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months or mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

PL or its associates might have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months.

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PL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. PL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the subject Company or third party in connection with the preparation of the research report. PL or its Research Analysts do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

It is confirmed that Mr. Amnish Aggarwal- MBA, CFA, Mr. Paarth Gala- B.Com, Ms. Aashi Rara- CA, B.Com Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

The Research analysts for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) - Moneycontrol

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