Assessing the impact of policy-driven agricultural practices in Karnataka, India
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Transcript of Assessing the impact of policy-driven agricultural practices in Karnataka, India
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Assessing the impact of policy-driven agricultural practicesin Karnataka, India
Seema Purushothaman • Sheetal Patil •
Ierene Francis
Received: 9 April 2012 / Accepted: 24 August 2012 / Published online: 28 September 2012
� Springer 2012
Abstract The classical approach of assessing sustainability
with respect to its three underlying pillars, ecological, eco-
nomic, and social, is adopted in this paper, with an added
emphasis on estimating the simultaneous effects of each pillar
on the other two. The paper assesses the impact of policy-
driven changes in cultivation practices in five districts in the
south-western Indian state of Karnataka. A comparative
statics analysis using a simultaneous equations model is
developed to capture the stability of each pillar into the future
and their concurrent interactive impacts and trade-offs. Eco-
logical and economic impacts of policies favoring organic
farming are estimated to be uniformly significant and positive
in the study districts. However, the impact on socio-cultural
criteria is subjective to the eco-regional context. Cost savings,
through producing organic inputs on-farm, maximizes syn-
chrony among the three pillars vis-a-vis sourcing these inputs
from the market. With more reliance on organic inputs, better
prospects are estimated for small and rain-fed farms compared
to large and irrigated farms.
Keywords Sustainability impact assessment � Small-
scale farming � Farmers’ distress � Comparative statics
analysis � Simultaneous equations model � Ex-ante
assessment
Introduction
With growing expectations from agriculture and its allied
sectors towards poverty reduction and overall economic
growth, the Green Revolution1 was set in motion in India
during the 1960s. The spread of high-yielding variety seeds
and subsidized synthetic fertilizers increased the produc-
tivity of certain crops in certain regions. Between
1950–1951 and 2010–2011, the production of food grains
increased five-fold from 51 to 241.6 mt (Bhattacharyya and
Chakraborty 2005, Economic Survey 2011–20122), making
the nation self-sufficient in major food grains. However, an
increasingly liberal and capitalist approach to agricultural
development (Satyasai and Vishwanathan 1997; Bhalla and
Singh 2009) also became partly responsible for precipi-
tating a crisis, often culminating in farmers’ suicides
(Reddy and Galab 2006; Deshpande and Prabhu 2005;
Vasavi 2009). The manifestation of agrarian crisis in India
in general can be traced back to the farmers’ movements in
different regions during the 1980s. The spread of this crisis
is often attributed, among others, to adverse terms of trade
(Balagopal 1988; Bose 1981), pro-urban policies (Lipton
1980), and increased rural–urban migration (Kalamkar
2009; Saha et al. 2009), along with multiple risks related to
production, price, inputs, technology, and credit (Mishra
2008).
The agricultural situation in the state of Karnataka is
similar to that of the country, with high growth in the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) (8 and 10 % in India and Kar-
nataka, respectively, for 2009–2010 [Government of India,
Handled by Vinod Tewari, The Energy and Resources Institute
(TERI) University, New Delhi, India.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of thisarticle (doi:10.1007/s11625-012-0188-y) contains supplementarymaterial, which is available to authorized users.
S. Purushothaman (&) � S. Patil � I. Francis
Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment,
Bangalore, Karnataka, India
e-mail: [email protected]
1 For the nature and impacts of the Green Revolution, please see
Evenson and Gollin (2003) and Hazell (2003), respectively.2 Economic Survey 2011–12 is available online at: http://indiabudget.
nic.in/es2011-12/estat1.pdf.
123
Sustain Sci (2013) 8:173–185
DOI 10.1007/s11625-012-0188-y
GoI 2011]), falling share of agriculture in GDP (decline of
3 and 4.5 % for India and Karnataka, respectively, for
2006–2010), and a large population which is dependent
upon agriculture (66 and 70 % for India and Karnataka,
respectively, in 2010). In the last two decades, the state of
Karnataka witnessed a significant increase in acreage under
commercial non-food crops (cotton, areca, sugarcane, oil-
seeds, and tobacco) and horticultural crops (grapes, coco-
nut, pomegranate) (Purushothaman and Kashyap 2010).
This change in cropping pattern has had implications on the
type and quantity of inputs applied. Consequently, the
average fertilizer consumption in Karnataka has increased
by 83 %3 between 1983–1984 and 2006–2007 (Chand and
Pandey 2008). Manifestations of agrarian problems are
similar in most parts of the country, including stagnated
agricultural growth, declining public investment in agri-
culture, shrinking farm size, and persisting farmers’ sui-
cides. Various measures have been implemented at both the
state and the center for tackling the distress amidst spiral-
ing food prices. These measures include loan waivers,
input subsidies, and price support. An initiative in a
direction different from such usual mitigation strategies is
the Karnataka State Policy on Organic Farming4 (KSPOF)
introduced in 2004 and implemented since 2006.
The policy statement of the KSPOF proclaims its goals
of reducing indebtedness of small farmers (although large
farmers are not totally excluded from the policy support)
by encouraging the use of inputs generated on-farm (hence,
organic) without compromising on economic and social
sustainability. The policy has been implemented in all
taluks5 of the state since 2006 by the state department of
agriculture, covering 100 ha of contiguous land area
(usually in one village) in each taluk. The process of the
selection of villages for policy implementation followed
criteria such as willingness among villagers, availability of
livestock, and presence of local non-governmental orga-
nizations (NGOs) with whose support the policy was to be
implemented. The KSPOF provided support for planting
materials, vermi-compost pits, azolla culture, bio-pesti-
cides, and livestock. The significant involvement of NGOs
was accomplished in guiding farmers through gradual
conversion to organic practices, producing and applying
vermi-compost, azolla culture, and bio-pesticides, and also
in organizing farm visits and training programs.
Organic farming, as defined in this policy, requires less
external inputs, relying more on the natural and human
resources available on the farm. By reducing financial
burden and increasing on-farm activities, the KSPOF
aimed at curbing migration to urban areas and extending
the benefits of sustainable agriculture to both farmers and
consumers. Since 2006, the number of farmers registered
under the policy has grown five-fold and budgetary support
allocated for subsidies for organic inputs in the state
increased by nearly 20 %.6 The policy also triggered other
similar investments by the state government towards sus-
tainable agriculture now coming to more than INR 1 billion
per year. Thus, the recent policy trend in Karnataka aims at
making agriculture both profitable and sustainable. This
could be the beginning of a potential agricultural reform in
the making, albeit at the state level. This, in turn, calls for a
detailed assessment of its prospects for small farms in order
to strategize effective and continued support to this sector.
The changes in the social and ecological aspects of
Karnataka’s agrarian economy in tune with policy changes
form the main subject of this paper. ‘‘Study areas’’ starts
with the selection and characterization of the study dis-
tricts, followed by a description of the process of identifi-
cation and selection of indicators and their aggregation into
three indices. ‘‘Methodology’’ narrates how we foresee the
scenarios for assessment prior to specifying the model for
impact assessment. The subsequent section discusses the
performance of and trade-offs among ecological, eco-
nomic, and socio-cultural criteria in the two policy sce-
narios. The paper concludes in ‘‘Results and discussion’’,
eliciting policy implications for sustaining small-scale
agriculture in Karnataka.
Study areas
Assuming that change in agricultural practices and input
use will be greater in districts with notable change in
acreage towards commercial crops, we focus on such dis-
tricts in Karnataka where area under cultivation has chan-
ged significantly. Thus, the process of choosing study
districts involved a three-stage, temporal (from 1976 to
2006) analysis, followed by a stakeholder workshop. The
first stage consisted of analyzing the change in land use in
all districts of the state within the prevalent land use
classification, followed by an analysis of change in crop-
ping pattern from 1995 to 2005. The districts showing
significant change in land use and cropping pattern were
then examined for incidence of social distress (e.g., farmer
suicides). This was followed by a workshop to discuss
these results and objectives of the study with a range
of stakeholders from the landscape (from academic,
3 At 122.5 kg/ha, the NPK application in Karnataka is still less than
the national average of 131.1 kg/ha for 2005–2006.4 http://raitamitra.kar.nic.in/kda_booklet.pdf.5 A taluk is a subdistrict administrative division that entails local
government for exercising certain fiscal and administrative power
over the villages and municipalities within its jurisdiction.
6 http://www.kar.nic.in/finance/bud2010/budhig10e.pdf and Karna-
taka State Annual Budget 2011–2012.
174 Sustain Sci (2013) 8:173–185
123
voluntary, and government sectors). Thus, based on the
workshop deliberations on temporal changes observed in
agricultural land use and farmers’ distress in Karnataka,
four districts from different agro-climatic zones (Bijapur,
Chitradurga, Chikballapur, and Mysore) were selected, as
well as a control district (Udupi) with relatively insignifi-
cant changes in these selected criteria (Fig. 1).
Selected districts located in different agro-climatic
zones possess different ecological, economic, and social
characteristics. Table 1 highlights the major differences in
the selected districts, such as extent of cultivation,
irrigation, fertilizer distribution, population density, and
social distress in terms of incidences of suicides. Two
districts located in northern and central dry zones (Bijapur
and Chitradurga) seem to have more area under cultivation,
and moderate irrigation and fertilizer use, but higher sui-
cide incidences compared to the other three districts in
eastern dry, transition, and coastal zones.
Three taluks in each selected district were chosen
(except in Udupi, a smaller district, where only two taluks
were chosen), following the same procedure that was car-
ried out for district selection. The village where the KSPOF
Fig. 1 Selected study districts
in the state of Karnataka, India
Table 1 Characteristics of the selected districts
Bijapur Chitradurga Chikballapur Mysore Udupi
Geographical areaa (ha) 1053471 770702 404501 676382 356446
Mean operational landholdinga (2005–2006) (ha) 3.03 2.05 1.15e 0.97 0.78
Net sown areab (2008–2009) (%) 71 51 26 49 26
Net irrigated areab (2008–2009) (%) 35 19 25 47 33
Fertilizers distributedb (N ? P ? K, kg/acre of net sown area) (2009–2010) 92 72 221 229 69
Population densityc (2011) (per km2) 207 197 298 437 304
Farmers’ suicidesd (2003–2007) 408 1058 241e 383 192
a Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES 2006)b DES (2011)c Census of India 2011d State Crime Records Bureau, Government of Karnatakae Chikballapur was formed as a new district from the larger Kolar district on 23 August 2007; this data is available only for Chikballapur and
Kolar combined
Sustain Sci (2013) 8:173–185 175
123
was being implemented was identified in each taluk. Thus,
14 villages that adopted organic practices since 2006 were
chosen for the primary data collection.
Methodology
Sustainability impact assessment of any target system
generally refers to the three pillars/dimensions7—ecologi-
cal, economic, and social. In that sense, agricultural sus-
tainability could imply production activities that are
environmentally non-damaging, financially viable, and
socially desirable at a given point of time and scale.
Although differences exist on the concept of sustainable
agriculture, there is consensus on these basic dimensions of
sustainability (Cai and Smith 1994; Hansen 1996; Pretty
1995; Rigby and Caceres 2001). This is summarized by
Zhen et al. 2005 as: (1) ‘ecological soundness’, referring to
the preservation and improvement of the natural environ-
ment; (2) ‘economic viability’, denoting the maintenance
of yields and productivity of crops and livestock; and (3)
‘social acceptability’, referring to self-reliance, equality,
and improved quality of life. Nevertheless, sustainability as
depicted here is difficult to be condensed into a single
simple definition, though changes in its multi-faceted nat-
ure are considered to be amenable to monitoring by a range
of diverse indicators (Pannell and Glenn 2000). Thus, the
assessment of sustainability is understood as feasible and
meaningful at the level of individual indicators rather than
a singular index of overall sustainability of any target
system (Walter and Stutzel 2009). While pursuing this, we
also opt to investigate the interactions between and across
the criteria of sustainability.
Assessing both these changes (in indicators as well as in
the interactions across criteria) as policy impacts could
employ different approaches. These assessments generally
make use of agricultural household models (Taylor and
Adelman 2003; Bouman et al. 1999; Bhende and Kalirajan
2007; Ray 2007; Vashisth et al. 2007; Singh et al. 1986),
rural system change models (Ali 2007), multi-market
limited general equilibrium models (Croppenstedt et al.
2007), or bio-physical models (Thomas et al. 2006).
Agricultural household models require extensive data to
generate equations for output, consumption, input demand,
and prices. Built on cross-sectional data, these models are
poorly equipped for modeling changes in agricultural land
use and cropping pattern. Induced rural system models
need panel data on indicators of impacts as well as on
drivers of land uses. Bio-physical models may not suit an
integrated assessment (in addition to the problem of
incommensurability of different measurements) and may
be better suited for generating input–output coefficients for
sustainable production levels.
Impact assessment of farm practices (unlike that of
policies) generally pertains to environmental components
(biotic and abiotic). In the context of farm practices, Sattler
et al. (2010) assessed environmental components using
fuzzy logic and financial components with individual
interviews, followed by categorizing the output of alternate
production practices into ‘strong’ and ‘weak’ sustainability
groups. Fan et al. (2008) used a multi-equation system for
assessing the effects of government investment and subsi-
dies on agricultural growth and poverty reduction in India.
When it comes to linking the policy, social, and ecological
aspects related to agriculture, suitable models are rarer,
especially at smaller scales. Learning from the above, we
adopt a fresh approach to analyze impacts of policy-driven
changes in agricultural practices in the villages of
Karnataka.
The attempt here is to link policy drivers of farm
practices with impact in terms of the three criteria men-
tioned earlier. Projecting the change in sustainability
dimensions or indicators for a target year using multiple
linear regressions is typically attempted in the literature (Li
et al. 2010; Black et al. 2002). We attempt to comprehend
the effect of change in criteria as a result of change in
practices, using a comparative statics simultaneous equa-
tions model. The latter reflects reality better, though it fails
to capture the temporal dynamics of sustainability criteria,
as and when they affect each other across time and space.
We pursue the status of change in individual sustainability
criteria and their effects on each other given plausible
policy and intervention scenarios. A target year of policy
impact assessment is, thus, irrelevant, as the question is not
‘when’ will each criterion or the system be sustainable, but
‘how’ the criteria will behave in the long run under dif-
ferent scenarios. Thus, through a sustainability lens, we ask
how or in what situation the change in ecological, socio-
cultural, and economic criteria would stabilize or become
asymptotic in the due course of time. In a nutshell, the
purpose of this exercise was not to estimate the level of
sustainability of each criterion at a point of time in the
future, but to pinpoint the interactions that make the cri-
teria stabilize over time.
Indicators of the assessment criteria
The three criteria, ecological (E), economic or financial
(F), and socio-cultural (S), are represented by eight selec-
ted indicators that capture changes in the farms under
assessment (Table 2). These indicators were selected fol-
lowing related literature and interactions with experts,
including farmers.
7 The words ‘dimension’ and ‘criteria’ in the context of sustainability
are synonymously used in this paper.
176 Sustain Sci (2013) 8:173–185
123
Indicator quantification
This section describes how each specific indicator is
quantified.
Soil organic carbon (SOC), an important indicator of
soil fertility and productivity, was measured in terms of the
proportion of active carbon content in the collected soil
samples. Soil and water samples were collected for eco-
logical assessment during the primary survey with farmer
respondents. These samples were analyzed in the labora-
tories of Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVK) in the respective
study districts. Electrical conductivity (EC), indicating the
salinity of water, was taken as an indicator of its suitability
for irrigation. Data on agro-biodiversity (BD) per acre of
farm land was collected during the primary survey as the
number of species [crops, trees (multi-purpose trees), and
animals (domesticated)].
Among the economic indicators, profit is calculated in
two ways as mentioned in Table 2. Profit (IN1) is calcu-
lated by subtracting cash expense on chemical inputs from
the gross income. Profit (IN2) is calculated by subtracting
the sum of cash expenses on chemical inputs as well as
expenses on organic inputs purchased (that is, in excess of
that produced on-farm). The purchased quantity of organic
manure was computed by subtracting the manure produced
on-farm from the quantity of manure that is actually
applied. For IN2, the quantity of organic manure generated
on-farm was computed based on the number of livestock in
each farm household. The quantity of organic manure
currently being applied in excess of what is produced on-
farm is considered to be procured from the market. The
prevailing prices of all inputs at the time of data collection
in each study district was collected from the local markets.
We have not assumed any price premium for organic
products while calculating the income from agriculture for
each household.
Home-grown food consumption (FF, Table 2) is mea-
sured as the quantity of food (grain and vegetables) grown
on the farm that is consumed by members of the farm
family. Indebtedness (NDT) is measured as the probability
of possessing outstanding loans. This indicator is assumed
to be reflecting the possibility of social distress or unrest
among the households interviewed. NDT is estimated using
a logistic function for each village, as in Eq. (1):
NDTi = Probability of ith farm household having any
outstanding overdue loan
NDTi ¼ f tið Þ ¼1
1þ e�ti½ � ð1Þ
where ti ¼ aþ b1 � x1i þ b2 � x2i. . .þ bn � xni
where x1…xn determine the probability of having out-
standing loans such as landholding size, irrigated area,
extent of commercial crops, cropping intensity, etc.,
introduced separately for each study district. Migration and
non-farm income are not excluded here both because the
related data was hard to collect and also because the inputs
and farming practice were not directly dependent on this.
For differentiating between rich and poor farm households,
we rely on the indicator profit from farming.
Of the socio-cultural indicators, collective activities
(CA) is captured by the number of social activities the
family gets involved in. AD is an indicator of the distri-
butional status of the households in a village in terms of the
aggregation of three variables—land area, vehicles, and
gadgets. The distribution of assets rather than income
across households was chosen to represent distributional
status as assets reflect long-term equity dynamics better
Table 2 Indicator framework for impact assessment
Assessment criteria Broad indicators Specific indicators Measurement
Ecological (E) Soil quality Soil organic carbon (SOC) % carbon in soil
Water quality (Electrical conductivity)-1 (WQ) (dS/m)-1
Agro-biodiversity Species of crops, multi-purpose trees,
and domesticated animals on-farm (BD)
Number/acre
Economic (F) Profit Net annual agricultural income withoutshadow price for organic inputs (IN1)
INR/acre
Net annual agricultural income withshadow price for organic inputs (IN2)
INR/acre
Consumption of
home-grown food
Quantity consumed in the household out
of produced food grains (FF)
kg/person/year
Indebtedness Probability of having outstanding loans (NDT) Probability from logistic function
Socio-cultural (S) Collective activitiesa Involvement in collective activities (CA) Number
Asset distribution Status of asset distribution (AD) Range between indices of asset groups
above and below the village mean index
a Collective activities include watershed development, afforestation, festival celebrations, and participation in microfinance and self-help groups
Sustain Sci (2013) 8:173–185 177
123
than current incomes. A composite index of assets (CIA)
was constructed for each household using three variables:
land size, number of vehicles, and gadgets, using Eq. (2):
CIAi ¼X3
j¼1
Sj �Wj
� �ð2Þ
where CIAi, composite index of assets for the ith household;
Sj, value of variable j (j1 = landholding size, j2 = number
of vehicles, j3, number of gadgets); Wj = weightage for
variable j8
Using these computed values of the CIA for each
household, we calculated the mean asset index (CIAmean).
We categorized households into two classes, one Dhigh with
asset index higher than or equal to CIAmean and the other
Dlow with asset index lower than CIAmean for the village.
The variables Dhigh and Dlow are defined below:
Dhigh ¼Pn
i¼1 CIAi
nhigh
8 CIAi�CIAmeanð Þ
an
Dlow ¼Pn
i¼1 CIAi
nlow
8 CIAi\CIAmeanð Þ
where CIAmean, mean asset index for a village;
nhigh, number of households with CIAi�CIAmean;
nlow, number of households with CIAi\CIAmean:
Then, D is defined as D ¼ Dhigh � Dlow: Thus, the range
of D would be 0 \ D \ CIAhigh, where CIAhigh is the
highest asset index in a village.
The variable AD representing the distribution status is
the reciprocal of D (i.e., 1D), as the lower the D value, the
better the asset distribution in a village.
Data
The primary data for the study districts consist of bench-
mark data collected by the state department of agriculture
and the collaborating local NGO in 2006 before the organic
farming policy was initiated and the data that we collected
through the primary survey in 2009–2010 after more than
3 years of organic farming policy implementation in these
villages. Data from the survey included all the indicators of
assessment (Table 3), as well as other key variables in the
policy context.
Aggregating indicators
Although it may be ideal for any impact assessment to have
a wide range of indicators and variables, when it comes to
analysis, it amounts to large data sets for assessment across
multiple study sites. Such situations may involve double
counting or may lead to multi-collinearity. At the same
time, reducing the number of indicators might cause loss of
vital information regarding the system. Aggregating indi-
cators into indices could reduce these shortcomings in
indicator selection. Hence, we condense the indicator sets
for each criterion into an appropriate composite index for
that criterion, using the weights obtained from the Partic-
ipatory Impact Assessment (PIA)9 workshops. Indices,
corresponding to each criterion, are constructed from the
products of indicator values for each household and the
corresponding weightage attributed to the indicators in
PIA. These composite indices are calculated for each cri-
terion for two points in time (using the same weights for
indicators in both periods)—2006 and 2009 (see Eq. 3).
If E, S, and F denote ecological, financial, and socio-
cultural criteria, then the composite index of ecological
criterion in 2009, for example, is computed as:
Ei 2009ð Þ ¼X3
JE¼1
Si jð ÞE �Wi jð ÞE� �
ð3Þ
where Ei 2009ð Þ, composite index of ecological criteria for
the ith household in 2009; SiðjÞE, value of indicator jE(jE1 = SOC, jE2 = WQ, jE3 = BD) for the ith household in
2009; Wi jð ÞE , weightage for indicator jE (jE1 = SOC,
jE2 = WQ, jE3 = BD) for the ith household from the PIA.
Similarly, composite indices for financial (Fið2009Þ) and
socio-cultural (Sið2009Þ) criteria using their respective indi-
cators (as in Table 2) and the three indices for 2006
(Eið2006Þ; Fið2006Þ; Sið2006Þ) as well, were computed.10
Developing policy–practice scenarios
Evolving realistic policy scenarios is crucial for any
assessment. In this paper, scenarios are visualized in the
context of agricultural policies as possible future potential
changes towards reducing agrarian distress. In a8 Weightage for each variable constituting the CIA for any household
is calculated as
Wj ¼1
D� SD Sj
� �
where D ¼P3
j¼1
1
SD Sjð Þ
� �, SD(Sj) = standard deviation of Sj1 to Sj3.
This ensures that a lower weightage is assigned for the variable that is
highly dispersed and diverse, indicating the unequal distribution of
assets within a village.
9 PIA workshops were held in all study sites involving farmers,
researchers, as well as government officers and NGO representatives
implementing the policy. Details of PIA can be found in Purushoth-
aman et al. (2012b).10 While computing the composite index of financial criteria (F), the
indicator NDT (indebtedness) is used as its reciprocal, as the absence
of indebtedness contributes to financial sustainability.
178 Sustain Sci (2013) 8:173–185
123
sustainability science perspective, scenario-building con-
siders both qualitative and quantitative expectations (Swart
et al. 2004) and foresights on different criteria. Scenarios of
impacts were developed after discussions with key stake-
holders in the area, analysis of past trends in key variables,
and after reviewing the agricultural action plan of the state
government.11
Until 2006, in the study villages, farming, as it was
commonly practiced, mainly involved the application of
chemical fertilizers and pesticides and a small amount of
organic manure. After the introduction of the KSPOF in
2006, farmers in the selected villages were given assistance
and guidance to change production practices towards
making agriculture sustainable. The focus of the policy was
on change in agricultural practices or the ways in which
farming is managed; hence, the important scenario vari-
ables were with respect to cropping pattern and intensity,
irrigation, input use, etc. With the increase in public and
private investment in irrigation facilities and demand for
export-oriented agricultural commodities, the current sce-
narios reflect the increasing use of chemical inputs for
commercial crops in the state. On the other hand, with the
implementation of the KSPOF and similar policies towards
sustainable agriculture, some farmers are making an effort
to reduce their dependence on chemical inputs. If this
policy trend continues into the future, these farmers are
willing to increase the application of livestock manure, leaf
manure, farm waste, etc., which requires more livestock
and biomass than that which is available. The scenarios
also draw from (apart from the examination of trends and
expert consultation) trends in other data variables signifi-
cant for model development (‘‘Estimating the change in
variables in the two scenarios’’). The two scenarios that
emerged include one with continuation of the conventional
that is intensive in mineral fertilizers and market-oriented,
referred to as ‘Business as usual’ (BAU), and the alterna-
tive with more sustainable farming practices, in line with
new policies like the KSPOF, referred to as ‘With policy’
(WP). The major distinguishing difference between WP
and BAU scenarios is the relative quantity of organic
(IORG) and chemical inputs (IINORG) applied. Some
variables such as landholding size remain the same, as very
little impact is expected on this variable from the two
scenarios. The specific changes anticipated in any indicator
for either scenario are discussed later in ‘‘Estimating the
change in variables in the two scenarios’’ (Annexure 1
provides the changes in the variables in the two scenarios)
Ta
ble
3M
ean
val
ues
of
sele
cted
ind
icat
ors
fro
mth
ep
rim
ary
dat
a(h
igh
erv
alu
esar
eit
ali
cize
d)
Indic
ators
Unit
Bij
apur
(n=
25)
Chit
radurg
a(n
=25)
Chik
bal
lapur
(n=
31)
Myso
re(n
=20)
Udupi
(n=
15)
2009
2006
2009
2006
2009
2006
2009
2006
2009
2006
Soil
org
anic
carb
on
(SO
C)
%1.1
9(0
.47)
0.9
9(0
.23)
0.4
6(0
.07)
0.4
7(0
.19)
0.4
1(0
.25)
0.3
4(0
.11)
0.7
9(0
.35)
0.6
0(0
.27)
0.3
9(0
.19)
0.7
3(0
.14)
Wat
erqual
ity
(WQ
)(d
S/m
)-1
1.2
7(0
.37)
0.4
0(0
.05)
0.7
5(0
.22)
0.6
1(0
.11)
3.1
9(0
.10)
0.6
0(0
.04)
1.7
9(0
.24)
0.5
2(0
.25)
2.3
9(0
.02)
1.3
3(0
.02)
Agro
-bio
div
ersi
ty(B
D)
Num
ber
/acr
e3.8
1(1
.26)
2.8
0(1
.72)
1.1
0(0
.06)
1.9
9(0
.34)
1.8
4(0
.79)
1.2
3(0
.29)
2.1
3(0
.78)
2.2
0(1
.14)
3.0
4(1
.06)
1.1
3(0
.49)
Net
inco
me
(IN
2)
INR
/acr
e-
3314
(26148)
2999
(19084)
3799
(23571)
3505
(5462)
7696
(22058)
142
(6393)
12729
(21423)
7985
(29413)
18120
(31905)
18150
(20123)
No
over
due
loan
s(N
DT
-1)
Pro
bab
ilit
y0.9
4(0
.03)
0.0
4(0
.00)
0.4
2(0
.12)
0.4
9(0
.1)
0.2
2(0
.02)
0.3
3(0
.02)
0.4
9(0
.29)
0.5
7(0
.40)
0.4
6(0
.2)
0.7
9(0
.23)
Food
from
farm
(FF
)kg/p
erso
n/y
ear
376
(237)
762
(209)
1151
(171)
626
(114)
531
(70)
618
(258)
806
(108)
506
(41)
203
(91)
275
(18)
Coll
ecti
ve
acti
vit
ies
(CA
)N
um
ber
0.5
2(0
.05)
0.1
2(0
.04)
0.9
0(0
.3)
0.9
7(0
.45)
0.9
4(0
)0.5
8(0
.05)
0.5
6(0
.05)
0.4
4(0
.07)
1.4
1(0
.62)
0.6
3(0
.07)
Ass
etdis
trib
uti
on
(AD
)R
ange
bet
wee
nin
dic
esof
asse
tgro
ups
above
and
bel
ow
the
vil
lage
mea
nin
dex
1.4
9(0
.02)
0.8
8(0
.01)
1.2
0(0
.09)
1.0
5(0
.08)
1.5
6(0
.05)
0.9
6(0
.06)
1.4
9(0
.84)
0.9
4(0
.03)
1.5
6(0
.08)
1.0
6(0
.1)
Sta
ndar
ddev
iati
ons
are
show
nin
par
enth
eses
nnum
ber
of
house
hold
ssu
rvey
ed
11 Karnataka state agricultural action plans can be accessed at:
http://kappec.kar.gov.in/future.html, http://empri.kar.nic.in/Directives
%20and%20actions%20taken%202011-02-02%20CFN%20RMNS.pdf,
and http://ces.iisc.ernet.in/envis/sdev/etr15.pdf.
Sustain Sci (2013) 8:173–185 179
123
Tracing the change in criteria over time
Change in indices from 2006 to 2009
We intend to assess changes in the three composite indices
(that represent the three criteria) due to alterations in cul-
tivation practices in the villages where the organic farming
policy was implemented. In order to trace this change,
spatially and temporally, we used panel data (for 2006
from the state department of agriculture and for 2009
through primary surveys) for the study sites.
Denoting sustainability criteria as E, F, and S, the crops
grown as ‘C’, inputs used as ‘I’, and policy(-ies) prominent in
driving the change (in C and I) over time as ‘P’, we concep-
tualize the relation impacting E, S, and F as in Eq. (4):
DPð Þ ! DCð Þ ! DIð Þ !DEDFDS
0
@
1
A
2
4
3
5 ð4Þ
where the change in E, F, and S from 2006 to 2009
DE;DF;DSð Þ, with selected indicators for each of them (as
in Table 2), is calculated as:
DE ¼ E2009 � E2006 ð5ÞDF ¼ F2009 � F2006 ð6ÞDS ¼ S2009 � S2006 ð7Þ
Determinants of change in sustainability indices
We estimate the determinants of DE, DF, and DS using the
difference in values of independent variables between 2006
and 2009. Separate multiple regression equations were
used to determine DE, DF, and DS for each study district,
with corresponding sets of independent variables
Da1. . .Dan; Db1. . .Dbm; and Dc1. . .Dcrð Þ that significantly
influence DE, DF, and DS in each district [Eqs. (8)–(10)]:
DE ¼ aþ bE1� Da1 þ bE2
� Da2 þ � � � þ bEn� Dan ð8Þ
DS ¼ aþ bS1� Db1 þ bS2
� Db2 þ � � � þ bSm� Dbm ð9Þ
DF ¼ aþ bF1� Dc1 þ bF2
� Dc2 þ � � � þ bFr� Dcr ð10Þ
where bE1 � � �En; bS1 � � � Sm and bF1 � � �Fr are the slope
coefficients of variables (Da1 to Dan, Db1 to Dbm, and Dc1
to Dcr) determining DE, DF, and DS, respectively. An-
nexures 2 and 3 give the details of the variables used and
the regression equations that significantly explain DE, DF,
and DS in the study districts.
The set of three equations above [Eqs. (8)–(10)] were
estimated using 3SLS regression in order to capture the
simultaneous effects of DE, DF, or DS on each other in
each district (see Annexure 4 for the set of equations). The
interactive and simultaneous impact on each criterion is
represented in a set of three equations [Eqs. (11)–(13)]:
DE ¼/ þbE1� Da1 þ bE2
� Da2 þ � � � þ bEn� Dan
þ bDS � DSþ bDF � DF ð11Þ
DS ¼/ þbS1� Db1 þ bS2
� Db2 þ � � � þ bSm� Dbm
þ bDE � DE þ bDF � DF ð12Þ
DF ¼/ þbF1� Dc1 þ bF2
� Dc2 þ � � � þ bFr� Dcr
þ bDE � DE þ bDS � DS ð13Þ
Estimating the indices for the WP and BAU scenarios
To estimate the stabilized levels of the three indices in both
the scenarios (WP and BAU), we use a comparative statics
approach. Vector ‘Z’ represents the current change in indices
E, S, and F from 2006 to 2009 (from ‘‘Determinants of change
in sustainability indices’’) and ‘DY’ (for each scenario) is a
vector formed by average anticipated changes in the values of
exogenous variables determining DE, DF, and DS:
Z ¼DEDFDS
24
35 and DYs ¼
Da1
Db1
Dc1
. . .Dan
Dbm
Dcr
2666666664
3777777775
where s is scenario WP or BAU.
Then, Z, which is the estimated change in indices E, S,
and F beyond 2009, can be expressed in terms of matrices
of coefficients of endogenous (A) and exogenous (B)12
variables in the two scenarios. Equations (11)–(13) can also
be written in a matrix form as:
Z ¼DEDFDS
24
35 ¼ A � Z þ B � DYs ¼ I � Að Þ�1�B � DYs ð14Þ
where I is the identity matrix of A (3 9 3) and s is either
scenario WP or BAU.
12 Matrices of coefficients of endogenous and exogenous variables
for comparative statics analysis: the matrices of coefficients of
endogenous (of DE, DF, and DS as in matrix A in the first
expression below) and exogenous (a1 to an, b1 to bm, and c1 to cr as in
matrix B in the second expression below) were formed in order to
estimate the future status of DE, DF, and DS.
A ¼0 b DEDSð Þ b DEDFð Þ
b DsDeð Þ 0 b DSDFð Þb DFDEð Þ b DFDSð Þ 0
B ¼b DEa1ð Þ b DEa2ð Þ. . . b DEanð Þb DSb1ð Þ b DSb2ð Þ. . . b DSbmð Þb DFc1ð Þ b DFc2ð Þ. . . b DFcrð Þ
:
From matrices A and B, we find how DE, DF, and DS further become
constant or stable in two different scenarios: WP and BAU. The
scenarios capture the change in values of exogenous variables that
influence DE, DF, and DS to reach relatively stable levels of
DE;DF and DS:
180 Sustain Sci (2013) 8:173–185
123
Estimating the change in variables in the two scenarios
We solved the Eqs. (11)–(13) for estimating Z using sce-
nario assumptions on DYs based on feedback from expert
consultation (including farmers) and examination of trends.
We used the estimated regression Eqs. (8)–(10) to validate
the assumptions made for scenario development. If
DE;DF and DS were not found to be significantly deter-
mined by the change in independent variables
(Da1;Db1;Dc1 to Dan;Dbm;Dcr), then further change was
considered in the combination and values of independent
variables till they significantly determined the estimated
values of (DE;DF;DS).
The values of Da1;Db1;Dc1 to Dan;Dbm;Dcr in the
vector ‘DYs’ change based on the iterative process of val-
idation tests carried out separately for each district.13 Thus,
a combination of such changes in all the exogenous vari-
ables constituting WP and BAU scenario options (see
Annexure 1) would yield the projected values for changes
in criteria: DE;DF and DS. This is followed by the esti-
mation of the index for each sustainability criterion in the
future. For instance, E is calculated from E2009 [refer to
Eq. (3)], as in [Eq. (15)]:
E ¼ E2009 þ DE ð15Þ
where E estimated ecological index for future WP or
BAU
E2009 mean actual ecological index in 2009 of the sur-
veyed households
DE estimate change in ecological index
As mentioned in ‘‘Aggregating indicators’’, two variants
of net income (IN1 and IN2) were used in the financial
criteria in order to capture the relative difference between
producing organic inputs on own farm vis-a-vis procuring
it from outside. Hence, at every step of analysis starting
from computing the composite index through estimation of
change in the two scenarios [from Eq. (3) through 15],
these two variants of financial criterion were included. The
next section discusses the results of applying the above
discussed model to the data gathered in the study.
Results and discussion
Agricultural crisis reflected in low productivity, high
indebtedness, and farmers’ suicides is assumed to be dri-
ven, among others, also by unsustainable farming practices.
Mitigation strategies for such a situation in the state of
Karnataka include state support for alternate farming
practices. In order to compare the potential and limitations
of this trend in state policy with those that support con-
ventional farming practices, this paper relies on the com-
parative statics approach built across two scenarios, WP
and BAU. Differences between the estimated indices of
assessment criteria [e.g., E in Eq. (15) and corresponding
calculations for F and S] in the WP and BAU scenarios for
each district is presented in Tables 4 and 5. Such projected
sustainability status is compared among small and large
landholders, as well as for rain-fed and irrigated farms
across the study districts (Figs. 2 and 3).
Impact of policy-driven farming practices in the study
areas
With prevailing scarcity of livestock and biomass in most
farm holdings, farmers will need to purchase at least part of
their organic input requirement. However, with emerging
support from government policies, it might be possible for
farmers to be self-reliant in terms of organic inputs.
Table 4 presents the results for interactive impacts on the
indices of each criterion when organic manure is produced
on-farm. Table 5 gives the results when farmers purchase
manure, when the quantity needed is in excess of what is
produced on-farm.
From Tables 4 and 5, it is apparent that, most often, the
WP scenario performs better than BAU, with the exception
of socio-cultural criteria in Bijapur, Chitradurga, and
Udupi. If farmers have to purchase organic inputs from the
market, a dampening effect is observed in the potential
performance of WP in Bijapur (socio-cultural criterion)
and Chikballapur (ecological criterion).
Higher values of the ecological index in the WP sce-
nario across the districts resonate findings from other en-
quiries about impacts of similar farm practices on agro-
ecological factors (e.g., Bengtsson et al. 2005; Rasul and
Thapa 2004; Singh 2000) or on stabilizing the productivity
of small farms (Altieri 2002).
Literature on non-ecological impacts of farm practices
generally touches upon debt situations and food security
rather than direct profit, though there are some assessments
on the latter also from field experiments. Degraded natural
resources on-farm are shown to result in yield stagnation,
escalated costs, and reduced profits (Singh 2009), leading
to a continued downfall in farm economy that makes
farmers indebted to such a level that the non-repayment of
loan becomes a major cause of distress (Mishra 2008). The
advantages of sustainable farms for food security in small
farms have also been recorded (Rao 1994). The findings of
this paper on the financial performance of small farms in
WP with uncertified organic cultivation practices differ
13 For instance, in the case of the WP scenario in Udupi district, the
change in variable IINORG (inorganic input use, a determinant of
DE) is expected to decrease by 30 %, whereas for the BAU scenario,
it is expected to increase by 30 %, both with respect to 2009 values.
Sustain Sci (2013) 8:173–185 181
123
from the general perception on economic disadvantages of
sustainable cultivation practices.
Our results, despite not imputing a premium price for
organically grown farm produce, show that financial
response (both when organic inputs are generated on-farm
or purchased) is better in WP in the study districts, devi-
ating from the general perception (Reganold et al. 2001;
Ramesh et al. 2005, 2010) on a lackluster economic impact
of organic farming on small farms. The dampened eco-
logical advantage in Chikballapur for the WP scenario
when organic inputs are purchased from outside implies
that, in poorer districts, application would be impacted
adversely if organic inputs have to be purchased.
The response of socio-cultural criteria (computed by
aggregating asset distribution and collective activities)
emerges better in WP than BAU in three districts with on-
farm generation of organic inputs. This could indicate a
possible unexpected implication of sourcing organic inputs
from markets, at least in situations where farm practices act
as drivers of social interactions among farmers.
Based on ecological, financial, and distributional
impacts, our results favor strengthening local institutions
and collective activities around the production and usage of
organic inputs on-farm than public investment in producing
and marketing organic inputs at industrial scales. This is
despite providing price incentives (premium) for organic
produce. Such a policy also ensures distributional equity
among village households in terms of assets, helping WP to
be socially sustainable.
Generally, studies mention a necessary trade-off
between sustainability and productivity if one has to
choose between farm-based inputs and chemically inten-
sive farming practices (Azadi et al. 2011). Our results show
that productivity may not be a cause for concern, as eco-
nomic dimension performs well with policy (in spite of not
attributing a price premium for organic produce). The
performance of economic criteria is linked to non-declining
yield and diversifying crops, along with the avoidance of
unaffordable credit needs.
Impact of policy-driven farming practice on different
farm holdings
Categorizing the interviewed farm households into groups
of small and large, as well as rain-fed and irrigated, reveals
relative and disaggregated impacts of changes in farm
practices. Figures 2 and 3 depict the results with pooled
data across the districts segregated into categories: small
(B2 ha) and large ([2 ha), rain-fed (B20 % of the total
land under irrigation) and irrigated ([20 % of the total land
under irrigation).
In brief, the three sustainability criteria improve in WP
for small farms compared to large farms (Fig. 2). However,
even for large farms, WP emerges to be beneficial com-
pared to BAU, though in the case of small farms, the dif-
ference between estimated values of E, S, and F in WP
becomes significantly higher than BAU.
The relative advantage of WP is noted in rain-fed farms
over irrigated farms with both on-farm generated inputs as
well as purchased, without any trade-off between the three
sustainability criteria. Irrigated farms also exhibit more
benefits from on-farm input generation without trade-off
among the three criteria in WP than when sourced from
outside the farm. Thus, Figs. 2 and 3 convey that the
greatest benefits of WP in the three assessment criteria
(E, S, and F) were for small and rain-fed farms compared to
large and irrigated farms.
While the results from disaggregated district level
analysis (from Tables 4 and 5) revealed the need to build
new and strengthened institutions for promoting and
Table 4 Impact on assessment criteria in the two scenarios across study sites when organic manure is produced on-farm
Assessment criteria WP better than BAU WP same as BAU WP worse than BAU
Ecological (E) Chitradurga, Udupi, Mysore, Bijapur, Chikballapur None None
Financial (F using IN1) Chitradurga, Udupi, Mysore, Bijapur, Chikballapur None None
Socio-cultural (S) Mysore, Chikballapur, Bijapur None Udupi, Chitradurga
Actual values of estimated E, S, and F are in Annexure 5
Table 5 Impact on assessment criteria in the two scenarios across study sites when organic manure is procured from outside
Assessment criteria WP better than BAU WP same as BAU WP worse than BAU
Ecological (E) Udupi, Chitradurga, Mysore, Bijapur, Chikballapur Chikballapur None
Financial (F using IN2) Bijapur, Udupi, Mysore, Chitradurga, Chikballapur None None
Socio-cultural (S) Mysore, Chikballapur None Bijapur, Chitradurga, Udupi
Actual values of estimated E, S, and F are in Annexure 5
182 Sustain Sci (2013) 8:173–185
123
propagating the in situ generation and application of
required organic inputs, subsequently, it is also recognized
that small and rain-fed farms gain more in WP (Figs. 2 and
3). These results question the arguments (e.g., Gulati et al.
2008) for enhancing policy support towards the industri-
alization of farms as the panacea for viability.
Conclusions
This paper discusses the impact of change in policies
towards organic practices, a trend that is becoming
increasingly popular in several states in India, on the three-
dimensional sustainability of farms in selected districts.
Fig. 2 Impact of farm practices
on different holdings [when
organic inputs are generated on-
farm (F with IN1) and when
purchased from the market
(F with IN2)]
Fig. 3 Impact of farm practices
on irrigated and rain-fed farms
[when organic inputs are
generated on-farm (F with IN1)
and when purchased from the
market (F with IN2)]
Sustain Sci (2013) 8:173–185 183
123
The methods employed provided space for involving
stakeholders in the selection and weighing of indicators,
though the need for panel data could be a constraint. While
acknowledging that sustainability as a whole cannot be
measured, the paper takes into account its three pillars,
namely, ecological, economic, and social, with relevant
indicator sets, without trying to bifurcate ‘weak’ and
‘strong’ sustainability, but allowing stakeholders to decide
on the acceptable trade-offs. The paper makes use of locally
relevant functions from agricultural land use and corre-
sponding indicators to trace the future impact on the occu-
pational mainstay of rural Karnataka. It brings out the
interplay of sustainability dimensions at grass roots, revealing
location-specific trade-offs in implementing agricultural pol-
icies oriented towards sustainability (Tables 4 and 5).
The paper uses actual farm-level information on a
flexible set of indicators, tracing their collective and
interactive impact on the criteria with the help of a
simultaneous equations model and comparative statics
scenario analysis. The results reveal the levels of stabil-
ization of the chosen indices under scenarios in WP (pol-
icies favoring organic practices) and BAU scenarios in
order to identify the sustainability trade-offs with different
policy options.
The results are noteworthy for the fact that no financial
trade-offs were found in WP for any of the five selected
districts. Though the absence of ecological trade-offs in
WP was intuitive, a lack of financial trade-off is not backed
by the literature. The socio-cultural trade-offs in WP found
in Bijapur, Chitradurga, and Udupi districts remain unex-
plainable. Nevertheless, these results resonate the findings
of a multi-criteria analysis for short-term policy impact on
indicators (Purushothaman et al. 2012a). The WP scenario
performs better with respect to profits, if organic inputs are
generated on-farm. The study also shows that small and
rain-fed farms vis-a-vis large and irrigated farms gain lar-
ger benefits from organic farming practices.
These findings help strategize the micro level planning
of public investment in agriculture. Two emerging rec-
ommendations from our analysis are; effective and targeted
support to produce organic inputs on-farm or in the village
commons and strengthening collective actions around
organic farming practices. Since public investment towards
this is justifiable, as the ecological and economic outcomes
are of interest to the whole society, the study strengthens
the argument for sustenance of small holders on economic
and ecological grounds through policies promoting sus-
tainable agricultural practices with self-reliance in inputs as
the key. It also advocates varying and contextual emphasis
on different dimensions of farm sustainability in imple-
menting such policies aimed at reducing rural poverty and
agrarian distress, while making explicit the trade-offs, so as
to design location-specific mitigation strategies.
Acknowledgments Authors gratefully acknowledge the support
from EU FP6 project ‘‘Land use policies and sustainable development
in developing countries (LUPIS)‘‘, as also valuable comments from
Dr Gopal Kadekodi and Rosa Abraham
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